Search

Search Results

• 61. [Article] The Effects of Roadway Capacity on Peak Narrowing - Evidence from 1995 NPTS

  Spreading of the peak is one effect of increased peak-period congestion. Due to peak spreading, the travel-time impact of congestion is mitigated for some travelers, but the inconvenience of traveling ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Effects of Roadway Capacity on Peak Narrowing - Evidence from 1995 NPTS Author: Zhang, Jihong, Rufolo, Anthony M., Dueker, Kenneth, Strathman, James G. Year: 2000 Spreading of the peak is one effect of increased peak-period congestion. Due to peak spreading, the travel-time impact of congestion is mitigated for some travelers, but the inconvenience of traveling at a less-preferred time also has a cost. Alternatively, increases in capacity have their impacts on peak-period congestion mitigated by a narrowing of the peak. This reduces the travel-time savings, but it generates a benefit for those traveling closer to their preferred times. This benefit from capacity improvements has largely been ignored, and one reason is the difficulty of quantifying the effect. This paper reports on some crude attempts to quantify the peak-narrowing effect of increased capacity. Using 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) data, this study investigates how workers in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the US respond to roadway capacity differences in terms of changing their departure time to work. It is assumed that there is some distribution of travel times given by a mean and some measure of deviation from the mean. Peak narrowing is then measured by decreases in the deviation from the mean. The peak narrowing effects are modeled for both the morning commute and all departures from home for work at any time of the day. As expected, in urban areas with higher roadway capacity per capita, workers tend to depart from home closer to the peak time. For the morning commute, the model estimates that each one-percent increase in lane-miles per capita results in workers departing from home about 5.75 percent closer to the peak time. The effects of roadway capacity are found to be statistically significant in both models. Title: The Effects of Roadway Capacity on Peak Narrowing - Evidence from 1995 NPTS Author: Zhang, Jihong, Rufolo, Anthony M., Dueker, Kenneth, Strathman, James G. Year: 2000 Spreading of the peak is one effect of increased peak-period congestion. Due to peak spreading, the travel-time impact of congestion is mitigated for some travelers, but the inconvenience of traveling at a less-preferred time also has a cost. Alternatively, increases in capacity have their impacts on peak-period congestion mitigated by a narrowing of the peak. This reduces the travel-time savings, but it generates a benefit for those traveling closer to their preferred times. This benefit from capacity improvements has largely been ignored, and one reason is the difficulty of quantifying the effect. This paper reports on some crude attempts to quantify the peak-narrowing effect of increased capacity. Using 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) data, this study investigates how workers in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the US respond to roadway capacity differences in terms of changing their departure time to work. It is assumed that there is some distribution of travel times given by a mean and some measure of deviation from the mean. Peak narrowing is then measured by decreases in the deviation from the mean. The peak narrowing effects are modeled for both the morning commute and all departures from home for work at any time of the day. As expected, in urban areas with higher roadway capacity per capita, workers tend to depart from home closer to the peak time. For the morning commute, the model estimates that each one-percent increase in lane-miles per capita results in workers departing from home about 5.75 percent closer to the peak time. The effects of roadway capacity are found to be statistically significant in both models. Close

• 62. [Article] Political Performance, Leadership, and Regional Integration in Europe: An Examination of the French and German Roles

  Prior research on a regional leader’s role in the deepening of regional integration assumes that economic power translates directly into political capabilities. Relative political capacity among states ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Political Performance, Leadership, and Regional Integration in Europe: An Examination of the French and German Roles Author: Genna, Gaspare M., Yesilada, Birol, Noordijk, Peter Andrew Year: 2013 Prior research on a regional leader’s role in the deepening of regional integration assumes that economic power translates directly into political capabilities. Relative political capacity among states is central to the creation and deepening of regional integration since it is this capacity that smoothes out the transition from a closed to an open economy. Should a state have low levels of this capacity but desire openness, it will partner with regional leaders given the leaders’ higher relative political capacity. However, the leaders’ subsidy of a partner’s capacity comes at a price. The leaders would trade political capacity for forming a regional bloc along its preferences. A partner will join with a regional leader so long as it is satisfied with the leaders’ preferences. By doing so, it reduces the cost of the subsidy. Our analysis of European integration indicates that French and German relative political capacities are an important factor in the continent’s unifying efforts by conditioning institutional homogeneity and capital stocks mobility, both of which are critical for political and economic union. However, the German effect contrasts with the French effect in that we discover greater German effectiveness in mitigating potential barriers to integration. Title: Political Performance, Leadership, and Regional Integration in Europe: An Examination of the French and German Roles Author: Genna, Gaspare M., Yesilada, Birol, Noordijk, Peter Andrew Year: 2013 Prior research on a regional leader’s role in the deepening of regional integration assumes that economic power translates directly into political capabilities. Relative political capacity among states is central to the creation and deepening of regional integration since it is this capacity that smoothes out the transition from a closed to an open economy. Should a state have low levels of this capacity but desire openness, it will partner with regional leaders given the leaders’ higher relative political capacity. However, the leaders’ subsidy of a partner’s capacity comes at a price. The leaders would trade political capacity for forming a regional bloc along its preferences. A partner will join with a regional leader so long as it is satisfied with the leaders’ preferences. By doing so, it reduces the cost of the subsidy. Our analysis of European integration indicates that French and German relative political capacities are an important factor in the continent’s unifying efforts by conditioning institutional homogeneity and capital stocks mobility, both of which are critical for political and economic union. However, the German effect contrasts with the French effect in that we discover greater German effectiveness in mitigating potential barriers to integration. Close

• 63. [Article] Rooftop PV Impacts on Fossil Fuel Electricity Generation and CO2 Emissions in the Pacific Northwest

  This thesis estimates the impacts of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) capacity on electricity generation and CO2 emissions in America's Pacific Northwest. The region's demand for electricity is increasing at ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Rooftop PV Impacts on Fossil Fuel Electricity Generation and CO2 Emissions in the Pacific Northwest Author: Weiland, Daniel Albert Year: 2013 This thesis estimates the impacts of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) capacity on electricity generation and CO2 emissions in America's Pacific Northwest. The region's demand for electricity is increasing at the same time that it is attempting to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The electricity generated by rooftop PV capacity is expected to displace electricity from fossil fueled electricity generators and reduce CO2 emissions, but when and how much? And how can this region maximize and focus the impacts of additional rooftop PV capacity on CO2 emissions? To answer these questions, an hourly urban rooftop PV generation profile for 2009 was created from estimates of regional rooftop PV capacity and solar resource data. That profile was compared with the region's hourly fossil fuel generation profile for 2009 to determine how much urban rooftop PV generation reduced annual fossil fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions. Those reductions were then projected for a range of additional multiples of rooftop PV capacity. The conclusions indicate that additional rooftop PV capacity in the region primarily displaces electricity from natural gas generators, and shows that the timing of rooftop PV generation corresponds with the use of fossil fuel generators. Each additional Wp/ capita of rooftop PV capacity reduces CO2 emissions by 9,600 to 7,300 tons/ year. The final discussion proposes some methods to maximize and focus rooftop PV impacts on CO2 emissions, and also suggests some questions for further research. Title: Rooftop PV Impacts on Fossil Fuel Electricity Generation and CO2 Emissions in the Pacific Northwest Author: Weiland, Daniel Albert Year: 2013 This thesis estimates the impacts of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) capacity on electricity generation and CO2 emissions in America's Pacific Northwest. The region's demand for electricity is increasing at the same time that it is attempting to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The electricity generated by rooftop PV capacity is expected to displace electricity from fossil fueled electricity generators and reduce CO2 emissions, but when and how much? And how can this region maximize and focus the impacts of additional rooftop PV capacity on CO2 emissions? To answer these questions, an hourly urban rooftop PV generation profile for 2009 was created from estimates of regional rooftop PV capacity and solar resource data. That profile was compared with the region's hourly fossil fuel generation profile for 2009 to determine how much urban rooftop PV generation reduced annual fossil fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions. Those reductions were then projected for a range of additional multiples of rooftop PV capacity. The conclusions indicate that additional rooftop PV capacity in the region primarily displaces electricity from natural gas generators, and shows that the timing of rooftop PV generation corresponds with the use of fossil fuel generators. Each additional Wp/ capita of rooftop PV capacity reduces CO2 emissions by 9,600 to 7,300 tons/ year. The final discussion proposes some methods to maximize and focus rooftop PV impacts on CO2 emissions, and also suggests some questions for further research. Close

• 64. [Article] Capital Utilization and investment Decisions: A Case Study for the Netherlands

  In this paper a data envelopment model is presented to evaluate short term investment decisions in the Dutch beam trawl and demersal fleet. We investigated how short run profit drives investment decisions ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Capital Utilization and investment Decisions: A Case Study for the Netherlands Author: Buisman, Erik, Bartelings, Heleen In this paper a data envelopment model is presented to evaluate short term investment decisions in the Dutch beam trawl and demersal fleet. We investigated how short run profit drives investment decisions and how a data envelopment analysis can be used to show what the optimal level of capital use is and how investment in variable and fixed inputs can optimize the output of the sector. The degree of capital utilization can be seen as a measure of whether firms should invest or disinvest in their capital assets. Capital utilization also measures to which extent idle and excess capacity is present in a firm. Differences in capital utilization mainly depend on the degree in which a firm can adjust fixed capital in the short run. It therefore should be a key economic parameter to evaluate the performance of a sector. We measured the physical capital utilization for the Dutch beam trawl and demersal fleet for 2005 and decomposed the capacity utilization into technical efficiency, economic capital utilization and optimal capacity idleness. Furthermore we illustrated how the economic capacity measure can be used to predict investment decisions in the fleet. Results show that economic capital utilization inefficiency is on average 13%, which indicates that landings could have been 13% higher then they were if the fleet operated 100% efficiently. About 1% of the capacity utilization inefficiency is caused by idle/excess capacity. This very low percentage indicates that there are few indivisibilities in the input for the Dutch beam trawl and demersal fleet. Based on short term profit maximization it is clear that it is optimal to make as much use of the available capital as possible. The remaining 12% can be attributed to economic capacity inefficiency and technical inefficiency in the fleet. Vessels with a low capital utilization are more likely to disinvest than vessels with a high capital utilization. Vessels with a capital utilization that is higher than unity almost always will choose to invest. Title: Capital Utilization and investment Decisions: A Case Study for the Netherlands Author: Buisman, Erik, Bartelings, Heleen In this paper a data envelopment model is presented to evaluate short term investment decisions in the Dutch beam trawl and demersal fleet. We investigated how short run profit drives investment decisions and how a data envelopment analysis can be used to show what the optimal level of capital use is and how investment in variable and fixed inputs can optimize the output of the sector. The degree of capital utilization can be seen as a measure of whether firms should invest or disinvest in their capital assets. Capital utilization also measures to which extent idle and excess capacity is present in a firm. Differences in capital utilization mainly depend on the degree in which a firm can adjust fixed capital in the short run. It therefore should be a key economic parameter to evaluate the performance of a sector. We measured the physical capital utilization for the Dutch beam trawl and demersal fleet for 2005 and decomposed the capacity utilization into technical efficiency, economic capital utilization and optimal capacity idleness. Furthermore we illustrated how the economic capacity measure can be used to predict investment decisions in the fleet. Results show that economic capital utilization inefficiency is on average 13%, which indicates that landings could have been 13% higher then they were if the fleet operated 100% efficiently. About 1% of the capacity utilization inefficiency is caused by idle/excess capacity. This very low percentage indicates that there are few indivisibilities in the input for the Dutch beam trawl and demersal fleet. Based on short term profit maximization it is clear that it is optimal to make as much use of the available capital as possible. The remaining 12% can be attributed to economic capacity inefficiency and technical inefficiency in the fleet. Vessels with a low capital utilization are more likely to disinvest than vessels with a high capital utilization. Vessels with a capital utilization that is higher than unity almost always will choose to invest. Close

• 65. [Article] Production efficiency and capacity utilisation of Queensland’s Sydney rock oyster (SRO) industry

  Presentation

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Production efficiency and capacity utilisation of Queensland’s Sydney rock oyster (SRO) industry Author: Schrobback, Peggy Presentation Title: Production efficiency and capacity utilisation of Queensland’s Sydney rock oyster (SRO) industry Author: Schrobback, Peggy Presentation Close

• 66. [Article] Small sample, low-temperature calorimetry

  A calorimeter capable of measuring the heat capacity of 1 mg size samples from 4.2 to greater than 100 K has been designed, constructed, and tested. The sample is bonded to the end of a 0.002 inch diameter, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Small sample, low-temperature calorimetry Author: Wolochuk, Lee A calorimeter capable of measuring the heat capacity of 1 mg size samples from 4.2 to greater than 100 K has been designed, constructed, and tested. The sample is bonded to the end of a 0.002 inch diameter, 0.5 cm long chromel-constantan thermocouple (type E) and heated optically with a laser and fiber optic. An advantage of this calorimeter is the low addenda heat capacity of the thermocouple. The thermocouple, which serves not only as the temperature sensor of the sample but also as the thermal link between the sample and a constant temperature reservoir, is anchored to a copper block, which acts as the constant temperature reservoir. Heat capacity is determined from the temperature rate of decay of the sample using a sweep method. The sample is heated to an initial temperature above the block temperature by the laser. The laser is then turned off and the sample temperature is allowed to decay to the block temperature. By measuring the temperature of the sample as a function of time and relating it to the thermal conductivity of the thermocouple in a separate experiment, the sample's heat capacity can be determined. The thermal conductivity of the thermocouple is determined by performing an experiment with a sample of known heat capacity. A design model created with a spreadsheet helped to determine what size thermocouple should be used as well as the best materials and dimensions of the components that make up the calorimeter. The model was also useful in determining the nature of a calorimetry experiment and helped determine how high above the block temperature the sample should be heated, how low the pressure inside the calorimeter should be, and how much time a calorimetry experiment would require. Experiments using copper samples have confirmed the validity of the design. The results of an experiment using a 1.1 mg copper sample agree (within expected uncertainty) with the accepted heat capacity of copper from 7 to 100 K. One factor in the uncertainty is the large heat capacity of the grease (Apiezon N) used to bond the sample to the tip of the thermocouple, especially below 15 K. Title: Small sample, low-temperature calorimetry Author: Wolochuk, Lee A calorimeter capable of measuring the heat capacity of 1 mg size samples from 4.2 to greater than 100 K has been designed, constructed, and tested. The sample is bonded to the end of a 0.002 inch diameter, 0.5 cm long chromel-constantan thermocouple (type E) and heated optically with a laser and fiber optic. An advantage of this calorimeter is the low addenda heat capacity of the thermocouple. The thermocouple, which serves not only as the temperature sensor of the sample but also as the thermal link between the sample and a constant temperature reservoir, is anchored to a copper block, which acts as the constant temperature reservoir. Heat capacity is determined from the temperature rate of decay of the sample using a sweep method. The sample is heated to an initial temperature above the block temperature by the laser. The laser is then turned off and the sample temperature is allowed to decay to the block temperature. By measuring the temperature of the sample as a function of time and relating it to the thermal conductivity of the thermocouple in a separate experiment, the sample's heat capacity can be determined. The thermal conductivity of the thermocouple is determined by performing an experiment with a sample of known heat capacity. A design model created with a spreadsheet helped to determine what size thermocouple should be used as well as the best materials and dimensions of the components that make up the calorimeter. The model was also useful in determining the nature of a calorimetry experiment and helped determine how high above the block temperature the sample should be heated, how low the pressure inside the calorimeter should be, and how much time a calorimetry experiment would require. Experiments using copper samples have confirmed the validity of the design. The results of an experiment using a 1.1 mg copper sample agree (within expected uncertainty) with the accepted heat capacity of copper from 7 to 100 K. One factor in the uncertainty is the large heat capacity of the grease (Apiezon N) used to bond the sample to the tip of the thermocouple, especially below 15 K. Close

• 67. [Article] Photosynthesis of conifers : influential factors and potentials for remote sensing

  Remote sensing offers the potential for monitoring photosynthesis over large temporal and spatial scales. The purpose of this thesis is to provide information that will help to develop methods to predict ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Photosynthesis of conifers : influential factors and potentials for remote sensing Author: Yoder, Barbara J. Remote sensing offers the potential for monitoring photosynthesis over large temporal and spatial scales. The purpose of this thesis is to provide information that will help to develop methods to predict photosynthesis from the light reflected by canopies. The studies focused on a simple model of canopy photosynthetic potential: Acanopy = E APAR, where Acanopy is photosynthetic potential, APAR is the fraction of incident visible light that can be absorbed by the canopy, and is the light use efficiency. The first experiment showed that for small canopies of Douglas-fir seedlings, E was not a constant, even though environmental conditions were the same for all measurements of photosynthesis. APAR alone explained 36% of the variability in canopy photosynthesis. Photosynthetic capacity of needles from the top of a canopy was a good indicator of E: A model combining APAR and photosynthetic capacity explained 83% of the variation in canopy photosynthesis. Chlorophyll concentration was positively correlated with photosynthetic capacity, but had no measurable correlation with APAR. Leaf area alone explained most of the variation in APAR (R2 = 0.87). The second study demonstrated that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from amounts of red and near infrared light reflected by a vegetation, was a better indicator of E APAR than of APAR alone. This was because changes in leaf area at constant chlorophyll concentration caused reflectance to change in the near infrared but not the visible region. NDVI, however, was sensitive to both near infrared and visible reflectance. When chlorophyll varied at constant leaf area, NDVI varied but APAR did not. Because of the relationship between chlorophyll and photosynthetic capacity, and because variation in chlorophyll caused changes in the reflectance of red light, NDVI incorporated information about E. The third study demonstrated that in a mature hemlock stand, photosynthetic capacity did not change through the course of a year, despite below-freezing temperatures on two sampling dates, or in response to increased leaf nitrogen after fertilization. Previous studies have shown that many conifers have reduced photosynthetic capacity during the winter, and that photosynthetic capacity is often related to leaf nitrogen. This study points out exceptions that need to be considered in models of whole canopy photosynthesis. Title: Photosynthesis of conifers : influential factors and potentials for remote sensing Author: Yoder, Barbara J. Remote sensing offers the potential for monitoring photosynthesis over large temporal and spatial scales. The purpose of this thesis is to provide information that will help to develop methods to predict photosynthesis from the light reflected by canopies. The studies focused on a simple model of canopy photosynthetic potential: Acanopy = E APAR, where Acanopy is photosynthetic potential, APAR is the fraction of incident visible light that can be absorbed by the canopy, and is the light use efficiency. The first experiment showed that for small canopies of Douglas-fir seedlings, E was not a constant, even though environmental conditions were the same for all measurements of photosynthesis. APAR alone explained 36% of the variability in canopy photosynthesis. Photosynthetic capacity of needles from the top of a canopy was a good indicator of E: A model combining APAR and photosynthetic capacity explained 83% of the variation in canopy photosynthesis. Chlorophyll concentration was positively correlated with photosynthetic capacity, but had no measurable correlation with APAR. Leaf area alone explained most of the variation in APAR (R2 = 0.87). The second study demonstrated that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from amounts of red and near infrared light reflected by a vegetation, was a better indicator of E APAR than of APAR alone. This was because changes in leaf area at constant chlorophyll concentration caused reflectance to change in the near infrared but not the visible region. NDVI, however, was sensitive to both near infrared and visible reflectance. When chlorophyll varied at constant leaf area, NDVI varied but APAR did not. Because of the relationship between chlorophyll and photosynthetic capacity, and because variation in chlorophyll caused changes in the reflectance of red light, NDVI incorporated information about E. The third study demonstrated that in a mature hemlock stand, photosynthetic capacity did not change through the course of a year, despite below-freezing temperatures on two sampling dates, or in response to increased leaf nitrogen after fertilization. Previous studies have shown that many conifers have reduced photosynthetic capacity during the winter, and that photosynthetic capacity is often related to leaf nitrogen. This study points out exceptions that need to be considered in models of whole canopy photosynthesis. Close

• 68. [Article] Oregon Law Review : Vol. 87 No. 2, p.353-400 : Illusory Consent: When an Incapacitated Patient Agrees to Treatment

  46 p.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon Law Review : Vol. 87 No. 2, p.353-400 : Illusory Consent: When an Incapacitated Patient Agrees to Treatment Author: Vars, Fredrick E. Year: 2009, 2008 46 p. Title: Oregon Law Review : Vol. 87 No. 2, p.353-400 : Illusory Consent: When an Incapacitated Patient Agrees to Treatment Author: Vars, Fredrick E. Year: 2009, 2008 46 p. Close

• 69. [Article] Bicycle Level of Service: Where are the Gaps in Bicycle Flow Measures?

  Bicycle use is increasing in many parts of the U.S. Local and regional governments have set ambitious bicycle mode share goals as part of their strategy to curb greenhouse gas emissions and relieve traffic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bicycle Level of Service: Where are the Gaps in Bicycle Flow Measures? Author: Johnson, Pamela Christine Year: 2014 Bicycle use is increasing in many parts of the U.S. Local and regional governments have set ambitious bicycle mode share goals as part of their strategy to curb greenhouse gas emissions and relieve traffic congestion. In particular, Portland, Oregon has set a 25% mode share goal for 2030 (PBOT 2010). Currently bicycle mode share in Portland is 6.1% of all trips. Other cities and regional planning organizations are also setting ambitious bicycle mode share goals and increasing bicycle facilities and programs to encourage bicycling. Increases in bicycle mode share are being encouraged to increase. However, cities with higher-than-average bicycle mode share are beginning to experience locations with bicycle traffic congestion, especially during peak commute hours. Today, there are no established methods are used to describe or measure bicycle traffic flows. In the 1960s, the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) introduced Level of Service (LOS) measurements to describe traffic flow and capacity of motor vehicles on highways using an A-to-F grading system; "A" describes free flow traffic with no maneuvering constraints for the driver and an "F" grade corresponds to over capacity situations in which traffic flow breaks down or becomes "jammed". LOS metrics were expanded to highway and road facilities, operations and design. In the 1990s, the HCM introduced LOS measurements for transit, pedestrians, and bicycles. Today, there are many well established and emerging bicycle level of service (BLOS) methods that measure the stress, comfort and perception of safety of bicycle facilities. However, it was been assumed that bicycle traffic volumes are low and do not warrant the use of a LOS measure for bicycle capacity and traffic flow. There are few BLOS methods that take bicycle flow into consideration, except for in the case of separated bicycle and bicycle-pedestrian paths. This thesis investigated the state of BLOS capacity methods that use bicycle volumes as a variable. The existing methods were applied to bicycle facility elements along a corridor that experiences high bicycle volumes in Portland, Oregon. Using data from the study corridor, BLOS was calculated and a sensitivity analysis was applied to each of the methods to determine how sensitive the models are to each of the variables used. An intercept survey was conducted to compare the BLOS capacity scores calculated for the corridor with the users' perception. In addition, 2030 bicycle mode share for the study corridor was estimated and the implications of increased future bicycle congestion were discussed. Gaps in the BLOS methods, limitations of the thesis study and future research were summarized. In general, the existing methods for BLOS capacity are intended for separated paths; they are not appropriate for existing high traffic flow facilities. Most of the BLOS traffic flow methods that have been developed are most sensitive to bicycle volumes. Some of these models may be a good starting point to improve BLOS capacity and traffic flow measures for high bicycle volume locations. Without the tools to measure and evaluate the patterns of bicycle capacity and traffic flow, it will be difficult to monitor and mitigate bicycle congestion and to plan for efficient bicycle facilities in the future. This report concludes that it is now time to develop new BLOS capacity measures that address bicycle traffic flow. Title: Bicycle Level of Service: Where are the Gaps in Bicycle Flow Measures? Author: Johnson, Pamela Christine Year: 2014 Bicycle use is increasing in many parts of the U.S. Local and regional governments have set ambitious bicycle mode share goals as part of their strategy to curb greenhouse gas emissions and relieve traffic congestion. In particular, Portland, Oregon has set a 25% mode share goal for 2030 (PBOT 2010). Currently bicycle mode share in Portland is 6.1% of all trips. Other cities and regional planning organizations are also setting ambitious bicycle mode share goals and increasing bicycle facilities and programs to encourage bicycling. Increases in bicycle mode share are being encouraged to increase. However, cities with higher-than-average bicycle mode share are beginning to experience locations with bicycle traffic congestion, especially during peak commute hours. Today, there are no established methods are used to describe or measure bicycle traffic flows. In the 1960s, the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) introduced Level of Service (LOS) measurements to describe traffic flow and capacity of motor vehicles on highways using an A-to-F grading system; "A" describes free flow traffic with no maneuvering constraints for the driver and an "F" grade corresponds to over capacity situations in which traffic flow breaks down or becomes "jammed". LOS metrics were expanded to highway and road facilities, operations and design. In the 1990s, the HCM introduced LOS measurements for transit, pedestrians, and bicycles. Today, there are many well established and emerging bicycle level of service (BLOS) methods that measure the stress, comfort and perception of safety of bicycle facilities. However, it was been assumed that bicycle traffic volumes are low and do not warrant the use of a LOS measure for bicycle capacity and traffic flow. There are few BLOS methods that take bicycle flow into consideration, except for in the case of separated bicycle and bicycle-pedestrian paths. This thesis investigated the state of BLOS capacity methods that use bicycle volumes as a variable. The existing methods were applied to bicycle facility elements along a corridor that experiences high bicycle volumes in Portland, Oregon. Using data from the study corridor, BLOS was calculated and a sensitivity analysis was applied to each of the methods to determine how sensitive the models are to each of the variables used. An intercept survey was conducted to compare the BLOS capacity scores calculated for the corridor with the users' perception. In addition, 2030 bicycle mode share for the study corridor was estimated and the implications of increased future bicycle congestion were discussed. Gaps in the BLOS methods, limitations of the thesis study and future research were summarized. In general, the existing methods for BLOS capacity are intended for separated paths; they are not appropriate for existing high traffic flow facilities. Most of the BLOS traffic flow methods that have been developed are most sensitive to bicycle volumes. Some of these models may be a good starting point to improve BLOS capacity and traffic flow measures for high bicycle volume locations. Without the tools to measure and evaluate the patterns of bicycle capacity and traffic flow, it will be difficult to monitor and mitigate bicycle congestion and to plan for efficient bicycle facilities in the future. This report concludes that it is now time to develop new BLOS capacity measures that address bicycle traffic flow. Close

• 70. [Article] Development of an information processing capacity estimation method for managing a project subjected to disruptions

  This dissertation is an attempt at developing a method for the analysis and estimation of the effects of disruptions due to uncertainties. Such uncertainties may result from design changes and engineering ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Development of an information processing capacity estimation method for managing a project subjected to disruptions Author: Ro, In Kyu This dissertation is an attempt at developing a method for the analysis and estimation of the effects of disruptions due to uncertainties. Such uncertainties may result from design changes and engineering drawing delays in large-scale, complex, research and development, or construction projects. In order to provide management with a simple management tool for the analysis of disruption problems, the following works have been done in this dissertation. I nformation Theory is used to provide an entropy formula and the capacity concept for a project, based on a transformation function. A Systematic prediction procedure is developed. The procedure can provide management with warning information on the likely trouble spots in the early stage of a project as well as during project execution. A hypothesis is advanced that most of engineering drawing delays follow an exponential distribution. Using the maximum entropy principle, an exponential distribution is shown to be an adequate probability distribution for random occurring drawing delays. Furthermore, to support the hypothesis, x² 'goodness-of-fit' tests are conducted for actual industrial data concerning drawing delays. An entropy formula of a triangular distribution for activity is derived. The entropy formula is used as a working vehicle for developing an information processing capacity estimation method for a project. In addition, an entropy conversion method is proposed to compare and choose project(s) among more than one project that has different measurement units for activity duration, in terms of uncertainty of the project completion date. An information processing capacity estimation method is developed. The method can estimate the capacity of a project to handle equivocation due to design changes. It can also identify the associated activities and the necessary amount of human resources, considering the project completion date with 50% chance of success. Furthermore, the method can estimate the project slippages when the capacity is not large enough to handle the equivocation. In an attempt to evaluate the predictive ability of the method, project slippages estimated by the information processing capacity estimation method are compared with the results obtained by a computer Monte Carlo simulation program, CRASH. A x² 'goodness-of-fit' test is conducted. The result of the test shows that the estimated project slippages do not significantly differ from those obtained from the CRASH computer program at the 0.005 significance level. We conclude that the information processing capacity estimation method may be suggested as an expedient means of evaluating project status for management in the different stages of project execution. The effect of fatigue on the capacity of a project is evaluated. In one example, it is shown that a 25% increase of total working hours over the base schedule (6-day week, 8-hour day) results in only 16% increase of the capacity of the project. The effect of fatigue is shown as a 35% time lost of the total increased working hours. Title: Development of an information processing capacity estimation method for managing a project subjected to disruptions Author: Ro, In Kyu This dissertation is an attempt at developing a method for the analysis and estimation of the effects of disruptions due to uncertainties. Such uncertainties may result from design changes and engineering drawing delays in large-scale, complex, research and development, or construction projects. In order to provide management with a simple management tool for the analysis of disruption problems, the following works have been done in this dissertation. I nformation Theory is used to provide an entropy formula and the capacity concept for a project, based on a transformation function. A Systematic prediction procedure is developed. The procedure can provide management with warning information on the likely trouble spots in the early stage of a project as well as during project execution. A hypothesis is advanced that most of engineering drawing delays follow an exponential distribution. Using the maximum entropy principle, an exponential distribution is shown to be an adequate probability distribution for random occurring drawing delays. Furthermore, to support the hypothesis, x² 'goodness-of-fit' tests are conducted for actual industrial data concerning drawing delays. An entropy formula of a triangular distribution for activity is derived. The entropy formula is used as a working vehicle for developing an information processing capacity estimation method for a project. In addition, an entropy conversion method is proposed to compare and choose project(s) among more than one project that has different measurement units for activity duration, in terms of uncertainty of the project completion date. An information processing capacity estimation method is developed. The method can estimate the capacity of a project to handle equivocation due to design changes. It can also identify the associated activities and the necessary amount of human resources, considering the project completion date with 50% chance of success. Furthermore, the method can estimate the project slippages when the capacity is not large enough to handle the equivocation. In an attempt to evaluate the predictive ability of the method, project slippages estimated by the information processing capacity estimation method are compared with the results obtained by a computer Monte Carlo simulation program, CRASH. A x² 'goodness-of-fit' test is conducted. The result of the test shows that the estimated project slippages do not significantly differ from those obtained from the CRASH computer program at the 0.005 significance level. We conclude that the information processing capacity estimation method may be suggested as an expedient means of evaluating project status for management in the different stages of project execution. The effect of fatigue on the capacity of a project is evaluated. In one example, it is shown that a 25% increase of total working hours over the base schedule (6-day week, 8-hour day) results in only 16% increase of the capacity of the project. The effect of fatigue is shown as a 35% time lost of the total increased working hours. Close