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• 21. [Article] Avian population trends within the evolving agricultural landscape of the eastern and central United States

  State-level Breeding Bird Survey (1980-1998) and U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics were used to test the hypothesis that changes in agricultural land use within the eastern and central U.S. have ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Avian population trends within the evolving agricultural landscape of the eastern and central United States Author: Murphy, Michael T. Year: 2003 State-level Breeding Bird Survey (1980-1998) and U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics were used to test the hypothesis that changes in agricultural land use within the eastern and central U.S. have driven population trends of grassland and shrub habitat birds over the past two decades. The degree to which population trends differed between grassland and shrub habitats was evaluated with respect to migratory and nesting behavior. Grassland birds declined significantly between 1980 and 1999, but, on average, shrub habitat species did not. Grassland-breeding, long-distance migrants exhibited the strongest negative trends. Most species (78%; n = 63) exhibited at least one significant association between population trends and changes in agricultural land use, and in most, land use "explained" 25-30% of the variation in population trends among states. Changes in the farmland landscape accounted for more of the interstate variability of population trends of short-distance migrants than of both long-distance migrants and residents, and that variability was greater in grassland than shrub species. Declines in the area of rangeland and cover crops were followed by population declines and increases, respectively, by many species. Increases of land in the Conservation Reserve Program had negative associations with population trends of some shrub species. The results indicate that grassland birds have declined strongly over the past two decades, and that regardless of migratory behavior or nesting habits, avian population trends are linked strongly to changes in agricultural land use within North America. Title: Avian population trends within the evolving agricultural landscape of the eastern and central United States Author: Murphy, Michael T. Year: 2003 State-level Breeding Bird Survey (1980-1998) and U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics were used to test the hypothesis that changes in agricultural land use within the eastern and central U.S. have driven population trends of grassland and shrub habitat birds over the past two decades. The degree to which population trends differed between grassland and shrub habitats was evaluated with respect to migratory and nesting behavior. Grassland birds declined significantly between 1980 and 1999, but, on average, shrub habitat species did not. Grassland-breeding, long-distance migrants exhibited the strongest negative trends. Most species (78%; n = 63) exhibited at least one significant association between population trends and changes in agricultural land use, and in most, land use "explained" 25-30% of the variation in population trends among states. Changes in the farmland landscape accounted for more of the interstate variability of population trends of short-distance migrants than of both long-distance migrants and residents, and that variability was greater in grassland than shrub species. Declines in the area of rangeland and cover crops were followed by population declines and increases, respectively, by many species. Increases of land in the Conservation Reserve Program had negative associations with population trends of some shrub species. The results indicate that grassland birds have declined strongly over the past two decades, and that regardless of migratory behavior or nesting habits, avian population trends are linked strongly to changes in agricultural land use within North America. Close

• 22. [Article] Evidence of population bottleneck in Astragalus michauxii (Fabaceae), a narrow endemic of the southeastern United States

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evidence of population bottleneck in Astragalus michauxii (Fabaceae), a narrow endemic of the southeastern United States Author: Xiang, Qiu-Yun Jenny, Knaus, Brian K., Gray, Janet B., Hohmann, Matthew G., Hoffmann, William A., Wall, Wade A., Douglas, Norman A., Wentworth, Thomas R. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/10592. Title: Evidence of population bottleneck in Astragalus michauxii (Fabaceae), a narrow endemic of the southeastern United States Author: Xiang, Qiu-Yun Jenny, Knaus, Brian K., Gray, Janet B., Hohmann, Matthew G., Hoffmann, William A., Wall, Wade A., Douglas, Norman A., Wentworth, Thomas R. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/10592. Close

• 23. [Article] Competitive interactions between Douglas-fir and red alder seedlings : growth analysis, resource use, and physiology

  Competitive interactions between Douglas-fir seedlings (Pseudotsuga menziesii), and seedlings of a nitrogen-fixing hardwood associate, red alder (Alnus rubra), were investigated in an addition series experiment. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Competitive interactions between Douglas-fir and red alder seedlings : growth analysis, resource use, and physiology Author: Shainsky, Lauri J. Competitive interactions between Douglas-fir seedlings (Pseudotsuga menziesii), and seedlings of a nitrogen-fixing hardwood associate, red alder (Alnus rubra), were investigated in an addition series experiment. The primary objective of the research was to identify and quantify key processes underlying intra- and interspecific competitive interactions of Douglas-fir and red alder seedlings. Seedlings of both species were planted into five monoculture densities of 1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 trees m⁻², and into mixtures of all possible pairwise combinations of these densities. Stem diameter and height were measured monthly, and were used to calculate relative growth rates. Soil moisture depletion was monitored using the neutron scattering method. An index of light availability was measured through fisheye photography and computer digitization. Leaf water potential served as a physiological indicator of water stress physiology. Predictive equations were developed for estimating the affect of species densities on tree yield and growth as they changed with time. Patterns in resource use and physiology were also modeled as functions of competitive regime. Yield, absolute growth, and relative growth rates based on an index of stem volume of both species declined quantitatively in response to intra- and interspecific competition. The competitive effects of red alder intensified with time, as the dominant overstory species grew taller and shaded the understory Douglas-fir. Resource availability and physiological performance were reduced quantitatively in response to the density of each species. Manipulation of both species densities influenced productivity through the modification of canopy structure, light pentration, and soil moisture availability. This study demonstrated that species density, resources, and physiology interact in a complex fashion to produce patterns of yield in stands of competing trees. Title: Competitive interactions between Douglas-fir and red alder seedlings : growth analysis, resource use, and physiology Author: Shainsky, Lauri J. Competitive interactions between Douglas-fir seedlings (Pseudotsuga menziesii), and seedlings of a nitrogen-fixing hardwood associate, red alder (Alnus rubra), were investigated in an addition series experiment. The primary objective of the research was to identify and quantify key processes underlying intra- and interspecific competitive interactions of Douglas-fir and red alder seedlings. Seedlings of both species were planted into five monoculture densities of 1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 trees m⁻², and into mixtures of all possible pairwise combinations of these densities. Stem diameter and height were measured monthly, and were used to calculate relative growth rates. Soil moisture depletion was monitored using the neutron scattering method. An index of light availability was measured through fisheye photography and computer digitization. Leaf water potential served as a physiological indicator of water stress physiology. Predictive equations were developed for estimating the affect of species densities on tree yield and growth as they changed with time. Patterns in resource use and physiology were also modeled as functions of competitive regime. Yield, absolute growth, and relative growth rates based on an index of stem volume of both species declined quantitatively in response to intra- and interspecific competition. The competitive effects of red alder intensified with time, as the dominant overstory species grew taller and shaded the understory Douglas-fir. Resource availability and physiological performance were reduced quantitatively in response to the density of each species. Manipulation of both species densities influenced productivity through the modification of canopy structure, light pentration, and soil moisture availability. This study demonstrated that species density, resources, and physiology interact in a complex fashion to produce patterns of yield in stands of competing trees. Close

• 24. [Article] Thirty-five years of forest succession in southwest Oregon : vegetation response to three distinct logging treatments

  This study examined patterns and controls on 35-years of forest succession following logging in the 236 ha South Umpqua Experimental Forest within the Umpqua National Forest in southwestern Oregon. Prior ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Thirty-five years of forest succession in southwest Oregon : vegetation response to three distinct logging treatments Author: Arthur, Aaron Stone This study examined patterns and controls on 35-years of forest succession following logging in the 236 ha South Umpqua Experimental Forest within the Umpqua National Forest in southwestern Oregon. Prior to logging, the overstory in all three watersheds (~50% cover) was composed of Douglas-fir (30-40% cover), grand fir (2 to 10% cover), incense cedar (2-4% cover), western hemlock (1-2 % cover), sugar pine (1-2% cover), ponderosa pine (0-1% cover), and madrone (0-1% cover). The sapling cover in all three watersheds (30-35% cover) was dominated by grand fir (15-20%), western hemlock (6-8% cover) incense cedar (3-5% cover), and Douglas-fir (3-5% cover), with <1% cover by the other tree species. In 1971, the overstory of the four watersheds received: WS-1 (69.2 ha) a 50% basal area removal (shelterwood); WS-2 (68.4 ha) 30% in 20 small clearcuts; WS-3 (49.8 ha) 100% clearcut; WS-4 (48.6 ha) uncut control. Prior to treatment, tree, shrub, and herb cover in WS 1-3 (n = 50 plots) was visually estimated using the reconnaissance survey method, but only WS 2-3 annually through 1981 (n = 39 plots). In 2006, plots were relocated and new plots added, and resurveyed (n = 77 plots). Plots were classified by environmental (aspect, slope, soil series, vegetation community) and disturbance factors (treatment, logging method, in-watershed location, and soil disturbance). Vegetation was classed into three groups: (1) vegetation structures; (2) overstory species; and (3) residual and invader understory species. Total vegetation cover decreased slightly over the 35-year period, with a slight decrease in shrubs, saplings, and herbs, and an increase in overstory tree cover in 2006 compared to 1971. Few statistically significant differences were observed in vegetation cover change according to environmental variables. However heavily disturbed sites were characterized by low shrub cover and high overstory cover, compared to lightly disturbed sites. These differences were still apparent 35 years after logging. Between 1971 and 2006 in WS-2 and WS-3, Douglas fir, incense cedar and ponderosa pine cover significantly increased, while other overstory species declined. In contrast, over the same period in WS-1, there was a significant change in grand fir and western hemlock cover. Sapling cover of all species stayed constant or declined in all watersheds, except Douglas-fir and western hemlock, which increased in WS-1 only. In the post-logging period, cover of ponderosa pine and Douglas fir cover was significantly higher on moderately and heavily disturbed plots compared to lightly disturbed plots. Before logging, residual species cover was significantly higher than invader species cover. Disturbance appeared to have the greatest effect upon the residual-invader species relationship. Residual species maintained higher cover on lightly disturbed plots, compared to invader species cover, which was highest on moderately and heavily disturbed plots. All species declined in WS-2 and WS-3 following stem exclusion. Overall patterns of tree, shrub, and herb cover succession over the 35-year post-logging period were consistent with the expected effects of clearcutting versus thinning on light levels and their interactions with known shade tolerances of tree species. Additionally, results were consistent with previously documented site disturbance effects on regeneration of residual and invader species, and shrub-tree competition and regeneration. These results permit prediction of the likely consequences for these 35-yr-old forest stands, and the thinned mature forest, of future, planned thinning treatments. Title: Thirty-five years of forest succession in southwest Oregon : vegetation response to three distinct logging treatments Author: Arthur, Aaron Stone This study examined patterns and controls on 35-years of forest succession following logging in the 236 ha South Umpqua Experimental Forest within the Umpqua National Forest in southwestern Oregon. Prior to logging, the overstory in all three watersheds (~50% cover) was composed of Douglas-fir (30-40% cover), grand fir (2 to 10% cover), incense cedar (2-4% cover), western hemlock (1-2 % cover), sugar pine (1-2% cover), ponderosa pine (0-1% cover), and madrone (0-1% cover). The sapling cover in all three watersheds (30-35% cover) was dominated by grand fir (15-20%), western hemlock (6-8% cover) incense cedar (3-5% cover), and Douglas-fir (3-5% cover), with <1% cover by the other tree species. In 1971, the overstory of the four watersheds received: WS-1 (69.2 ha) a 50% basal area removal (shelterwood); WS-2 (68.4 ha) 30% in 20 small clearcuts; WS-3 (49.8 ha) 100% clearcut; WS-4 (48.6 ha) uncut control. Prior to treatment, tree, shrub, and herb cover in WS 1-3 (n = 50 plots) was visually estimated using the reconnaissance survey method, but only WS 2-3 annually through 1981 (n = 39 plots). In 2006, plots were relocated and new plots added, and resurveyed (n = 77 plots). Plots were classified by environmental (aspect, slope, soil series, vegetation community) and disturbance factors (treatment, logging method, in-watershed location, and soil disturbance). Vegetation was classed into three groups: (1) vegetation structures; (2) overstory species; and (3) residual and invader understory species. Total vegetation cover decreased slightly over the 35-year period, with a slight decrease in shrubs, saplings, and herbs, and an increase in overstory tree cover in 2006 compared to 1971. Few statistically significant differences were observed in vegetation cover change according to environmental variables. However heavily disturbed sites were characterized by low shrub cover and high overstory cover, compared to lightly disturbed sites. These differences were still apparent 35 years after logging. Between 1971 and 2006 in WS-2 and WS-3, Douglas fir, incense cedar and ponderosa pine cover significantly increased, while other overstory species declined. In contrast, over the same period in WS-1, there was a significant change in grand fir and western hemlock cover. Sapling cover of all species stayed constant or declined in all watersheds, except Douglas-fir and western hemlock, which increased in WS-1 only. In the post-logging period, cover of ponderosa pine and Douglas fir cover was significantly higher on moderately and heavily disturbed plots compared to lightly disturbed plots. Before logging, residual species cover was significantly higher than invader species cover. Disturbance appeared to have the greatest effect upon the residual-invader species relationship. Residual species maintained higher cover on lightly disturbed plots, compared to invader species cover, which was highest on moderately and heavily disturbed plots. All species declined in WS-2 and WS-3 following stem exclusion. Overall patterns of tree, shrub, and herb cover succession over the 35-year post-logging period were consistent with the expected effects of clearcutting versus thinning on light levels and their interactions with known shade tolerances of tree species. Additionally, results were consistent with previously documented site disturbance effects on regeneration of residual and invader species, and shrub-tree competition and regeneration. These results permit prediction of the likely consequences for these 35-yr-old forest stands, and the thinned mature forest, of future, planned thinning treatments. Close

• 25. [Article] Mapping the Global Emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Mapping the Global Emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus Author: Fisher, Matthew C., Garner, Trenton W. J., Walker, Susan F., Powell, Christopher I., Weaver, George, Olson, Deanna H., Aanensen, David M., Ronnenberg, Kathryn L., Bielby, Jon, The Bd Mapping Group To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public Library of Science and can be found at: http://www.plos.org/. Title: Mapping the Global Emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus Author: Fisher, Matthew C., Garner, Trenton W. J., Walker, Susan F., Powell, Christopher I., Weaver, George, Olson, Deanna H., Aanensen, David M., Ronnenberg, Kathryn L., Bielby, Jon, The Bd Mapping Group To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public Library of Science and can be found at: http://www.plos.org/. Close

• 26. [Article] Environmental influences on host-pathogen dynamics of the amphibian chytrid fungus

  The causes of the global biodiversity crisis are varied and complex. Anthropogenic threats may act in isolation, or interact additively or synergistically with each other or with natural stressors to affect ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Environmental influences on host-pathogen dynamics of the amphibian chytrid fungus Author: Buck, Julia C. The causes of the global biodiversity crisis are varied and complex. Anthropogenic threats may act in isolation, or interact additively or synergistically with each other or with natural stressors to affect sensitive taxa. The recent emergence of many infectious diseases in wildlife has brought attention to the role of disease in population declines and species extinctions. Both abiotic and biotic components of the environment may mitigate or exacerbate effects of pathogens on their hosts through direct or indirect mechanisms. The effects of the environment on host-pathogen dynamics are complex, context-dependent, and in need of further examination. One particularly sensitive group, amphibians, is at the leading edge of the sixth mass extinction. The emerging infectious disease (EID) chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatis (Bd), is implicated in population declines and extinctions of amphibians globally. My disseration addresses questions pertaining to environmental influences on disease dynamics of Bd. As described in chapter 1, various abiotic and biotic components of the environment may affect host-pathogen dynamics of Bd, resulting in changes to the dynamics of Bd transmission and spread. Chapter 2 examines the influence of an abiotic factor, the insecticide (carbaryl) and three different assemblages of larval Pacific treefrogs (Pseudacris regilla) and Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) on host-pathogen dynamics of Bd within a community context. I found separate effects of each treatment on amphibian growth and development, but no interactive effects among the treatments. However, Bd appeared to reduce phytoplankton abundance and increase periphyton biomass, an unexpected result that merited further investigation. One possible explanation for the results described in chapter 2 is that zooplankton might consume Bd zoospores, the infective stage of the pathogen, a hypothesis that I examine in chapter 3. I conducted laboratory experiments and confirmed the presence of Bd zoospores in the gut of Daphnia sp. through quantitative PCR and visual inspection. I discuss conservation implications of this finding. To determine whether predation on Bd zoospores by zooplankton could reduce infection in amphibians, I conducted a mesocosm experiment, which is described in chapter 4. I found complex effects on species interactions: competition between larval Cascades frogs and zooplankton for phytoplankton resources reduced phytoplankton concentration, zooplankton abundance, and survival of amphibians. These effects were diminished in the presence of Bd, suggesting that zooplankton may have at least partially substituted Bd zoospores for phytoplankton in their diet, thus stimulating competitive release. However, competitive effects between zooplankton and larval amphibians overshadowed indirect positive benefits of zooplankton predation on Bd zoospores. In chapter 4, competitive effects between zooplankton and larval amphibians for phytoplankton suggested that host-pathogen dynamics might be affected by the host’s supply of resources. Chapter 5 describes a mesocosm experiment that examined how eutrophication might affect Bd-infected Pacific treefrogs and other members of the aquatic community. Nutrient additions caused increased algal growth, which benefitted herbivorous larval amphibians. Larvae exposed to Bd altered their growth, development, and diet, and allocated resources differently than unexposed individuals. However, nutrient supplementation did not alter the response of larval amphibians to Bd. As described in chapter 6, consideration of hosts and pathogens as functional members of the ecological communities in which they exist can lead to important insights in host-pathogen dynamics. My PhD research may contribute to control measures for the emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis. Title: Environmental influences on host-pathogen dynamics of the amphibian chytrid fungus Author: Buck, Julia C. The causes of the global biodiversity crisis are varied and complex. Anthropogenic threats may act in isolation, or interact additively or synergistically with each other or with natural stressors to affect sensitive taxa. The recent emergence of many infectious diseases in wildlife has brought attention to the role of disease in population declines and species extinctions. Both abiotic and biotic components of the environment may mitigate or exacerbate effects of pathogens on their hosts through direct or indirect mechanisms. The effects of the environment on host-pathogen dynamics are complex, context-dependent, and in need of further examination. One particularly sensitive group, amphibians, is at the leading edge of the sixth mass extinction. The emerging infectious disease (EID) chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatis (Bd), is implicated in population declines and extinctions of amphibians globally. My disseration addresses questions pertaining to environmental influences on disease dynamics of Bd. As described in chapter 1, various abiotic and biotic components of the environment may affect host-pathogen dynamics of Bd, resulting in changes to the dynamics of Bd transmission and spread. Chapter 2 examines the influence of an abiotic factor, the insecticide (carbaryl) and three different assemblages of larval Pacific treefrogs (Pseudacris regilla) and Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) on host-pathogen dynamics of Bd within a community context. I found separate effects of each treatment on amphibian growth and development, but no interactive effects among the treatments. However, Bd appeared to reduce phytoplankton abundance and increase periphyton biomass, an unexpected result that merited further investigation. One possible explanation for the results described in chapter 2 is that zooplankton might consume Bd zoospores, the infective stage of the pathogen, a hypothesis that I examine in chapter 3. I conducted laboratory experiments and confirmed the presence of Bd zoospores in the gut of Daphnia sp. through quantitative PCR and visual inspection. I discuss conservation implications of this finding. To determine whether predation on Bd zoospores by zooplankton could reduce infection in amphibians, I conducted a mesocosm experiment, which is described in chapter 4. I found complex effects on species interactions: competition between larval Cascades frogs and zooplankton for phytoplankton resources reduced phytoplankton concentration, zooplankton abundance, and survival of amphibians. These effects were diminished in the presence of Bd, suggesting that zooplankton may have at least partially substituted Bd zoospores for phytoplankton in their diet, thus stimulating competitive release. However, competitive effects between zooplankton and larval amphibians overshadowed indirect positive benefits of zooplankton predation on Bd zoospores. In chapter 4, competitive effects between zooplankton and larval amphibians for phytoplankton suggested that host-pathogen dynamics might be affected by the host’s supply of resources. Chapter 5 describes a mesocosm experiment that examined how eutrophication might affect Bd-infected Pacific treefrogs and other members of the aquatic community. Nutrient additions caused increased algal growth, which benefitted herbivorous larval amphibians. Larvae exposed to Bd altered their growth, development, and diet, and allocated resources differently than unexposed individuals. However, nutrient supplementation did not alter the response of larval amphibians to Bd. As described in chapter 6, consideration of hosts and pathogens as functional members of the ecological communities in which they exist can lead to important insights in host-pathogen dynamics. My PhD research may contribute to control measures for the emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis. Close

• 27. [Article] Consumer acceptability of Mukene (Rastrineobola argentea) value-added products in Uganda

  Abstract Only

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Consumer acceptability of Mukene (Rastrineobola argentea) value-added products in Uganda Author: Masette, Magaret, Khakasa, Elizabeth Abstract Only Title: Consumer acceptability of Mukene (Rastrineobola argentea) value-added products in Uganda Author: Masette, Magaret, Khakasa, Elizabeth Abstract Only Close

• 28. [Article] Systematic Temporal Patterns in the Relationship Between Housing Development and Forest Bird Biodiversity

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Society for Conservation ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Systematic Temporal Patterns in the Relationship Between Housing Development and Forest Bird Biodiversity Author: Keuler, Nicholas S., Lepczyk, Christopher A., Hammer, Roger B., Pidgeon, Anna M., Radeloff, Volker C., Wood, Eric M., Flather, Curtis H., Stewart, Susan I. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Society for Conservation Biology and published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. It can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/%28ISSN%291523-1739. Title: Systematic Temporal Patterns in the Relationship Between Housing Development and Forest Bird Biodiversity Author: Keuler, Nicholas S., Lepczyk, Christopher A., Hammer, Roger B., Pidgeon, Anna M., Radeloff, Volker C., Wood, Eric M., Flather, Curtis H., Stewart, Susan I. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Society for Conservation Biology and published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. It can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/%28ISSN%291523-1739. Close

• 29. [Article] Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

  This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/10531. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico Author: Faaborg, John, Arendt, Wayne J., Toms, Judith D., Dugger, Katie M., Mora, Miguel Canals, Cox, W. Andrew This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/10531. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. Title: Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico Author: Faaborg, John, Arendt, Wayne J., Toms, Judith D., Dugger, Katie M., Mora, Miguel Canals, Cox, W. Andrew This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/10531. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. Close

• 30. [Article] Effects of spatial scale and heterogeneity on avian occupancy dynamics and population trends in forested mountain landscapes

  Population trends and patterns in species distributions are the major currencies used to examine responses by biodiversity to changing environments. Effective conservation recommendations require that ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Effects of spatial scale and heterogeneity on avian occupancy dynamics and population trends in forested mountain landscapes Author: Frey, Sarah Jean Kiuama Population trends and patterns in species distributions are the major currencies used to examine responses by biodiversity to changing environments. Effective conservation recommendations require that models of both distribution dynamics and population trends accurately reflect reality. However, identification of the appropriate temporal and spatial scales of animal response, and then obtaining data at these scales present two major challenges to developing predictive models. In heterogeneous forested mountain landscapes I examined: A) the relative drivers of climatic variability at fine spatial scales under the forest canopy ('microclimate'), B) the influence of microclimate on local-scale occupancy dynamics of bird communities, and C) the effects of spatial scale and imperfect bird detection on long-term avian population trends. Climate change has been predicted to cause widespread biodiversity declines. However, the capacity of climate envelope models for predicting the future of biodiversity has been questioned due to the mismatch between the scale of available data (i.e., global climate models) and the scales at which organisms experience their environment. Local-scale variation in microclimate is hypothesized to provide potential ‘microrefugia’ for biodiversity, but the relative role of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation structure in driving microclimate is not well known. If the microrefugia hypothesis is true, I expected to see areas on the landscape that remained relatively cooler (i.e., buffered sites). To test this, I collected temperature data at 183 sites across elevation and forest structure gradients in complex terrain of the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, USA (Chapter 2). I used boosted regression trees, a novel machine learning approach, to determine the relative influence of vegetation structure, microtopography, and elevation as drivers of microclimate and mapped fine-scale distributions of temperature across the landscape. Models performed extremely well on independent data - cross-validation correlations between testing and training data were 0.69 - 0.98 for ten selected climate variables. Elevation was the dominant driver in fine-scale microclimate patterns, although vegetation and microtopography also showed substantial relative influences. For instance, during the spring-summer transition, maximum monthly temperatures observed in old-growth sites were 2.6°C (95% CI: 1.8 - 3.3°C) cooler than plantation sites and minimum temperatures during winter months were 0.6°C (95% CI: 0.4 - 0.8°C) warmer. This suggests that older forest stands mediate changes in temperature by buffering against warming during summer months and moderating cold temperatures during the winter. Climate is generally considered most influential on species distributions at large spatial scales; however much microclimate variability exists within regional patterns. I tested whether this high degree of microclimate variability has relevance for predicting species distributions and occupancy dynamics of the Andrews Forest bird community. I collected bird occurrence data in 2012 and 2013 at all 183 sites with fine-scale temperature measurements. I used dynamic occupancy models to test the effects of temperature on occupancy and apparent within-season bird movement while statistically accounting for vegetation effects and imperfect bird detection (Chapter 3). Most species (87%) exhibited within-season shifts in response to local-scale temperature metrics. Effects of temperature on within-season occupancy dynamics were as large or larger (1 to 1.7 times) than vegetation. However, individual species were almost as likely to shift toward warmer sites as toward cooler sites, suggesting that microclimate preferences are species-specific. My results emphasize that high-resolution temperature data provide valuable insight into avian distribution dynamics in montane forest environments and that microclimate is an important variable in breeding season habitat selection by forest birds. I hypothesize that microclimate-associated distribution shifts may reflect species' potential for behavioral buffering from climate change in complex terrain. Factors influencing population trends often differ depending on the spatial scale under consideration. Further, accurate estimation of trends requires accounting for biases caused by imperfect detection. To test the degree to which population trends are consistent across scales, I estimated landscape-scale bird population trends from 1999-2012 for 38 species at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, USA and compared them to regional and local trends (Chapter 4). I used a new method - open-population binomial mixture models - to test the hypothesis that imperfect detection in bird sampling has the potential to bias trend estimates. I also tested for generalities in species responses by predicting population trends as a function of life history and ecological traits. Landscape-scale trends were correlated with regional and local trends, but generally these correlations were weak (r = 0.12 - 0.4). Further, more species were declining at the regional scale compared to within the relatively undisturbed HBEF. Life history and ecological traits did not explain any of the variability in the HBEF trends. However, at the regional scale, species that occurred at higher elevations were more likely to be declining and species associated with older forests have increased. I hypothesize that these differences could be attributed to both elevated rates of land-use change in the broader region and the fact that the structure of regional data did not permit modeling of imperfect detection. Indeed, accounting for imperfect detection resulted in more accurate population trend estimates at the landscape scale; without accounting for detection we would have both missed trends and falsely identified trends where none existed. These results highlight two important cautions for trend analysis: 1) population trends estimated at fine spatial scales may not be extrapolated to broader scales and 2) accurate trends require accounting for imperfect detection. Title: Effects of spatial scale and heterogeneity on avian occupancy dynamics and population trends in forested mountain landscapes Author: Frey, Sarah Jean Kiuama Population trends and patterns in species distributions are the major currencies used to examine responses by biodiversity to changing environments. Effective conservation recommendations require that models of both distribution dynamics and population trends accurately reflect reality. However, identification of the appropriate temporal and spatial scales of animal response, and then obtaining data at these scales present two major challenges to developing predictive models. In heterogeneous forested mountain landscapes I examined: A) the relative drivers of climatic variability at fine spatial scales under the forest canopy ('microclimate'), B) the influence of microclimate on local-scale occupancy dynamics of bird communities, and C) the effects of spatial scale and imperfect bird detection on long-term avian population trends. Climate change has been predicted to cause widespread biodiversity declines. However, the capacity of climate envelope models for predicting the future of biodiversity has been questioned due to the mismatch between the scale of available data (i.e., global climate models) and the scales at which organisms experience their environment. Local-scale variation in microclimate is hypothesized to provide potential ‘microrefugia’ for biodiversity, but the relative role of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation structure in driving microclimate is not well known. If the microrefugia hypothesis is true, I expected to see areas on the landscape that remained relatively cooler (i.e., buffered sites). To test this, I collected temperature data at 183 sites across elevation and forest structure gradients in complex terrain of the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, USA (Chapter 2). I used boosted regression trees, a novel machine learning approach, to determine the relative influence of vegetation structure, microtopography, and elevation as drivers of microclimate and mapped fine-scale distributions of temperature across the landscape. Models performed extremely well on independent data - cross-validation correlations between testing and training data were 0.69 - 0.98 for ten selected climate variables. Elevation was the dominant driver in fine-scale microclimate patterns, although vegetation and microtopography also showed substantial relative influences. For instance, during the spring-summer transition, maximum monthly temperatures observed in old-growth sites were 2.6°C (95% CI: 1.8 - 3.3°C) cooler than plantation sites and minimum temperatures during winter months were 0.6°C (95% CI: 0.4 - 0.8°C) warmer. This suggests that older forest stands mediate changes in temperature by buffering against warming during summer months and moderating cold temperatures during the winter. Climate is generally considered most influential on species distributions at large spatial scales; however much microclimate variability exists within regional patterns. I tested whether this high degree of microclimate variability has relevance for predicting species distributions and occupancy dynamics of the Andrews Forest bird community. I collected bird occurrence data in 2012 and 2013 at all 183 sites with fine-scale temperature measurements. I used dynamic occupancy models to test the effects of temperature on occupancy and apparent within-season bird movement while statistically accounting for vegetation effects and imperfect bird detection (Chapter 3). Most species (87%) exhibited within-season shifts in response to local-scale temperature metrics. Effects of temperature on within-season occupancy dynamics were as large or larger (1 to 1.7 times) than vegetation. However, individual species were almost as likely to shift toward warmer sites as toward cooler sites, suggesting that microclimate preferences are species-specific. My results emphasize that high-resolution temperature data provide valuable insight into avian distribution dynamics in montane forest environments and that microclimate is an important variable in breeding season habitat selection by forest birds. I hypothesize that microclimate-associated distribution shifts may reflect species' potential for behavioral buffering from climate change in complex terrain. Factors influencing population trends often differ depending on the spatial scale under consideration. Further, accurate estimation of trends requires accounting for biases caused by imperfect detection. To test the degree to which population trends are consistent across scales, I estimated landscape-scale bird population trends from 1999-2012 for 38 species at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, USA and compared them to regional and local trends (Chapter 4). I used a new method - open-population binomial mixture models - to test the hypothesis that imperfect detection in bird sampling has the potential to bias trend estimates. I also tested for generalities in species responses by predicting population trends as a function of life history and ecological traits. Landscape-scale trends were correlated with regional and local trends, but generally these correlations were weak (r = 0.12 - 0.4). Further, more species were declining at the regional scale compared to within the relatively undisturbed HBEF. Life history and ecological traits did not explain any of the variability in the HBEF trends. However, at the regional scale, species that occurred at higher elevations were more likely to be declining and species associated with older forests have increased. I hypothesize that these differences could be attributed to both elevated rates of land-use change in the broader region and the fact that the structure of regional data did not permit modeling of imperfect detection. Indeed, accounting for imperfect detection resulted in more accurate population trend estimates at the landscape scale; without accounting for detection we would have both missed trends and falsely identified trends where none existed. These results highlight two important cautions for trend analysis: 1) population trends estimated at fine spatial scales may not be extrapolated to broader scales and 2) accurate trends require accounting for imperfect detection. Close