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• 1451. [Article] Competitive interactions and resource partitioning between northern spotted owls and barred owls in western Oregon

  The federally threatened northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is the focus of intensive conservation efforts that have led to much forested land being reserved as habitat for the owl and associated ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Competitive interactions and resource partitioning between northern spotted owls and barred owls in western Oregon Author: Wiens, J. David The federally threatened northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is the focus of intensive conservation efforts that have led to much forested land being reserved as habitat for the owl and associated wildlife species throughout the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Recently, however, a relatively new threat to spotted owls has emerged in the form of an invasive competitor: the congeneric barred owl (Strix varia). As barred owls have rapidly expanded their populations into the entire range of the northern spotted owl, mounting evidence indicates that they are displacing, hybridizing with, and even killing spotted owls. The barred owl invasion into western North America has made an already complex conservation issue even more contentious, and a lack of information on the ecological relationships between the 2 species has hampered conservation efforts. During 2007–2009 I investigated spatial relationships, habitat selection, diets, survival, and reproduction of sympatric spotted owls and barred owls in western Oregon, USA. My overall objective was to determine the potential for and possible consequences of competition for space, habitat, and food between the 2 species. My study included 29 spotted owls and 28 barred owls that were radio-marked in 36 neighboring territories and monitored over a 24-month tracking period. Based on repeated surveys of both species, the number of territories occupied by pairs of barred owls in the 745 km² study area (82) greatly outnumbered those occupied by pairs of spotted owls (15). Estimates of mean size of home-ranges and core-use areas of spotted owls (1,843 ha and 305 ha, respectively) were 2–4 times larger than those of barred owls (581 ha and 188 ha, respectively). Individual spotted and barred owls in adjacent territories often had overlapping home ranges, but inter-specific space sharing was largely restricted to broader foraging areas in the home range with minimal spatial overlap among core-use areas. I used an information-theoretic approach to rank discrete choice models representing alternative hypotheses about the influence of forest conditions and interspecific interactions on species-specific patterns of nighttime habitat selection. Spotted owls spent a disproportionate amount of time foraging on steep slopes in ravines dominated by old (>120 yrs old) conifer trees. Barred owls used available forest types more evenly than spotted owls, and were most strongly associated with patches of large hardwood and conifer trees that occupied relatively flat areas along streams. Spotted and barred owls differed in the relative use of old conifer forest (higher for spotted owls) and slope conditions (steeper slopes for spotted owls). I found no evidence that the 2 species differed in their use of young, mature, and riparian-hardwood forest types, and both species avoided forest-nonforest edges. The best resource selection function for spotted owls indicated that the relative probability of a location being selected was reduced if the location was within or in close proximity to a core-use area of a barred owl. I used pellet analysis and measures of food niche overlap to examine the potential for dietary competition between spatially associated pairs of spotted owls and barred owls. I identified 1,223 prey items from 15 territories occupied by pairs of spotted owls and 4,299 prey items from 24 territories occupied by pairs of barred owls. Diets of both species were dominated by nocturnal mammals, but diets of barred owls included many terrestrial, aquatic, and diurnal prey species that were rare or absent in diets of spotted owls. Northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus), woodrats (Neotoma fuscipes, N. cinerea), and lagomorphs (Lepus americanus, Sylvilagus bachmani) were particularly important prey for both owl species, accounting for 81% and 49% of total dietary biomass for spotted owls and barred owls, respectively. Dietary overlap between pairs of spotted and barred owls in adjacent territories ranged from 28–70% (mean = 42%) In addition to overlap in resource use, I also identified strong associations between the presence of barred owls and the behavior of spotted owls, as shown by changes in space-use, habitat selection, and reproductive output of spotted owls exposed to different levels of spatial overlap with barred owls in adjacent territories. Barred owls in my study area displayed both numeric and demographic superiority over spotted owls; the annual survival probability of radio-marked spotted owls from known-fate analyses (0.81, SE = 0.05) was lower than that of barred owls (0.92, SE = 0.04), and barred owls produced over 6 times as many young over a 3-year period as spotted owls. Survival of both species was positively associated with an increasing proportion of old (>120 yrs old) conifer forest within the home range, which suggested that availability of old forest was a potential limiting factor in the competitive relationship between the 2 species. When viewed collectively, my results support the hypothesis that interference competition with a high density of barred owls for territorial space can act to constrain the availability of critical resources required for successful recruitment and reproduction of spotted owls. My findings have broad implications for the conservation of spotted owls, as they suggest that spatial heterogeneity in survival and reproduction may arise not only because of differences among territories in the quality of forest habitat, but also because of the spatial distribution of an invasive competitor. Title: Competitive interactions and resource partitioning between northern spotted owls and barred owls in western Oregon Author: Wiens, J. David The federally threatened northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is the focus of intensive conservation efforts that have led to much forested land being reserved as habitat for the owl and associated wildlife species throughout the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Recently, however, a relatively new threat to spotted owls has emerged in the form of an invasive competitor: the congeneric barred owl (Strix varia). As barred owls have rapidly expanded their populations into the entire range of the northern spotted owl, mounting evidence indicates that they are displacing, hybridizing with, and even killing spotted owls. The barred owl invasion into western North America has made an already complex conservation issue even more contentious, and a lack of information on the ecological relationships between the 2 species has hampered conservation efforts. During 2007–2009 I investigated spatial relationships, habitat selection, diets, survival, and reproduction of sympatric spotted owls and barred owls in western Oregon, USA. My overall objective was to determine the potential for and possible consequences of competition for space, habitat, and food between the 2 species. My study included 29 spotted owls and 28 barred owls that were radio-marked in 36 neighboring territories and monitored over a 24-month tracking period. Based on repeated surveys of both species, the number of territories occupied by pairs of barred owls in the 745 km² study area (82) greatly outnumbered those occupied by pairs of spotted owls (15). Estimates of mean size of home-ranges and core-use areas of spotted owls (1,843 ha and 305 ha, respectively) were 2–4 times larger than those of barred owls (581 ha and 188 ha, respectively). Individual spotted and barred owls in adjacent territories often had overlapping home ranges, but inter-specific space sharing was largely restricted to broader foraging areas in the home range with minimal spatial overlap among core-use areas. I used an information-theoretic approach to rank discrete choice models representing alternative hypotheses about the influence of forest conditions and interspecific interactions on species-specific patterns of nighttime habitat selection. Spotted owls spent a disproportionate amount of time foraging on steep slopes in ravines dominated by old (>120 yrs old) conifer trees. Barred owls used available forest types more evenly than spotted owls, and were most strongly associated with patches of large hardwood and conifer trees that occupied relatively flat areas along streams. Spotted and barred owls differed in the relative use of old conifer forest (higher for spotted owls) and slope conditions (steeper slopes for spotted owls). I found no evidence that the 2 species differed in their use of young, mature, and riparian-hardwood forest types, and both species avoided forest-nonforest edges. The best resource selection function for spotted owls indicated that the relative probability of a location being selected was reduced if the location was within or in close proximity to a core-use area of a barred owl. I used pellet analysis and measures of food niche overlap to examine the potential for dietary competition between spatially associated pairs of spotted owls and barred owls. I identified 1,223 prey items from 15 territories occupied by pairs of spotted owls and 4,299 prey items from 24 territories occupied by pairs of barred owls. Diets of both species were dominated by nocturnal mammals, but diets of barred owls included many terrestrial, aquatic, and diurnal prey species that were rare or absent in diets of spotted owls. Northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus), woodrats (Neotoma fuscipes, N. cinerea), and lagomorphs (Lepus americanus, Sylvilagus bachmani) were particularly important prey for both owl species, accounting for 81% and 49% of total dietary biomass for spotted owls and barred owls, respectively. Dietary overlap between pairs of spotted and barred owls in adjacent territories ranged from 28–70% (mean = 42%) In addition to overlap in resource use, I also identified strong associations between the presence of barred owls and the behavior of spotted owls, as shown by changes in space-use, habitat selection, and reproductive output of spotted owls exposed to different levels of spatial overlap with barred owls in adjacent territories. Barred owls in my study area displayed both numeric and demographic superiority over spotted owls; the annual survival probability of radio-marked spotted owls from known-fate analyses (0.81, SE = 0.05) was lower than that of barred owls (0.92, SE = 0.04), and barred owls produced over 6 times as many young over a 3-year period as spotted owls. Survival of both species was positively associated with an increasing proportion of old (>120 yrs old) conifer forest within the home range, which suggested that availability of old forest was a potential limiting factor in the competitive relationship between the 2 species. When viewed collectively, my results support the hypothesis that interference competition with a high density of barred owls for territorial space can act to constrain the availability of critical resources required for successful recruitment and reproduction of spotted owls. My findings have broad implications for the conservation of spotted owls, as they suggest that spatial heterogeneity in survival and reproduction may arise not only because of differences among territories in the quality of forest habitat, but also because of the spatial distribution of an invasive competitor. Close

• 1452. [Article] Wildlife Health in Managed Forests : Immunity and Infectious Diseases in Wild Rodents of Oregon

  With continual and worldwide human population growth, our impact on the natural environment expands and intensifies every day. We consume natural resources, burn fossil fuels, and release toxic compounds ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Wildlife Health in Managed Forests : Immunity and Infectious Diseases in Wild Rodents of Oregon Author: Hanselmann, Rhea With continual and worldwide human population growth, our impact on the natural environment expands and intensifies every day. We consume natural resources, burn fossil fuels, and release toxic compounds into the air, water, and earth. We build roads that fragment the landscape, construct new settlements, and develop agricultural lands in previously undisturbed areas. And, we introduce non-native species, which compete with and/or prey on native ones. Our actions change the composition of ecosystems by effacing natural environments and decimating plant and animal populations. We have reached a time of unprecedented anthropogenic environmental change. And, while we recognize, and work feverishly to mitigate, countless consequences of our actions, we still lack a profound understanding of just as many of the corollaries of the environmental changes we provoke. One thing we do know is that human-induced changes in environmental conditions can affect health – from individual organisms, to plant and animal populations, all the way to the level of the ecosystem. Yet, the mechanisms underlying such adverse health outcomes are only partially understood. For instance, we know that alterations in the structure of plant and animal communities, the distribution and demographics of populations, and the abundance of individuals can influence the emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases. Which species are present in a community, where, when, and in what numbers can all determine the dynamics of pathogens, lead to disease outbreaks, and provide opportunities for spillover into new species. However, given the many environmental-, population-, and organism-level factors involved, and the complexity by which these variables interact, detecting and predicting the ultimate consequences for the health of animal, including human, populations remains difficult. Wild animals play important roles in numerous infectious disease cycles, many of which are shared with humans. Considering this and the well-documented effects that human activity can have on wildlife populations, studying the impacts of anthropogenic environmental change on health in wildlife is highly relevant. To understand how human-induced environmental changes affect wildlife health and to make predictions about potential regional or even global consequences for the dynamics of infectious diseases, however, we first need to understand patterns at a local scale. Here, I describe variation in immune function in captive and wild rodent species native to managed forests in northwestern Oregon, and examine how intensive forest management practices affect these and other physiological processes, and the prevalence of infectious diseases, in a large-scale field experiment. In Chapter 2 of this dissertation, I present baseline data on simple immune parameters in an iconic inhabitant of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest, the red tree vole (Arborimus longicaudus). I show that both body condition and age are important for immune defenses in this species. Translating these findings to wild populations leads me to predict that degradation of habitat may affect red tree voles not only at the population scale, as is currently the case, but that less obvious consequences for the health of individuals surviving in disturbed or suboptimal habitat are also possible. It is important, therefore, that efforts to conserve this species consider adverse effects of present forest management practices on red tree vole health, as potentially increased disease susceptibility could have detrimental outcomes for this species. In Chapters 3 and 4, I took advantage of a rare and large-scale experiment to test my predictions regarding the negative consequences of habitat degradation for individual animals in more ubiquitous rodent species known for their resilience to environmental disturbance. I investigated the effects of intensive forest management on stress, health, and immunity (Chapter 3), and on the prevalence of infectious diseases transmissible to humans (Chapter 4) in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), Townsend chipmunks (Tamias townsendii), and creeping voles (Microtus oregoni) inhabiting managed forest plots in northwestern Oregon. The experimental design employed allowed me to test the effect of regionally representative forest management practices on health and disease outcomes with important implications for public health. In Chapter 3, I present results which suggest that intensive forest management can have complex, but highly context-dependent effects on the health of wild deer mice. Intensive forest management can shape animals’ condition and reproductive activity, increase levels of stress hormone, and stimulate some but depress other immune responses. However, deer mice are only able to respond to the extreme stressor of this disturbance when underlying environmental conditions are favorable. When inhabiting inherently harsh habitat, mice appear unable to cope with additional disturbance imposed by intensive forest management, and only the fittest mice survive. Finally, in Chapter 4, I identify moderate prevalence of two important and potentially fatal human infections in rodents inhabiting managed forests in northwestern Oregon. In deer mouse populations, Sin Nombre virus was clustered spatially, and prevalence varied between years. But, in the focus of highest infection, the proportion of infected mice, albeit low, appeared to increase with intensity of forest management. For Leptospirosis, I found a similar pattern in creeping voles, but did not observe an association between infection prevalence and forest management in deer mice or chipmunks. I conclude that forest management may drive infectious disease patterns, but that the direction and magnitude of such effects depends on the host-pathogen system. Taken together, my findings indicate that wild animal health can suffer from declines in habitat quality associated with forest management. For a near-threatened species such as the red tree vole, decreases in the availability of food and nesting habitat have the potential to change susceptibility to infection, which could facilitate disease invasion and further threaten populations. For wild animals that serve as reservoirs for human infections, especially abundant and apparently resilient species, impaired health can drive the dynamics of pathogens and increase the risk of transmission to humans and other animals. Although many more questions remain, my work contributes to our understanding of the effects of anthropogenic environmental change for wildlife and human health. Title: Wildlife Health in Managed Forests : Immunity and Infectious Diseases in Wild Rodents of Oregon Author: Hanselmann, Rhea With continual and worldwide human population growth, our impact on the natural environment expands and intensifies every day. We consume natural resources, burn fossil fuels, and release toxic compounds into the air, water, and earth. We build roads that fragment the landscape, construct new settlements, and develop agricultural lands in previously undisturbed areas. And, we introduce non-native species, which compete with and/or prey on native ones. Our actions change the composition of ecosystems by effacing natural environments and decimating plant and animal populations. We have reached a time of unprecedented anthropogenic environmental change. And, while we recognize, and work feverishly to mitigate, countless consequences of our actions, we still lack a profound understanding of just as many of the corollaries of the environmental changes we provoke. One thing we do know is that human-induced changes in environmental conditions can affect health – from individual organisms, to plant and animal populations, all the way to the level of the ecosystem. Yet, the mechanisms underlying such adverse health outcomes are only partially understood. For instance, we know that alterations in the structure of plant and animal communities, the distribution and demographics of populations, and the abundance of individuals can influence the emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases. Which species are present in a community, where, when, and in what numbers can all determine the dynamics of pathogens, lead to disease outbreaks, and provide opportunities for spillover into new species. However, given the many environmental-, population-, and organism-level factors involved, and the complexity by which these variables interact, detecting and predicting the ultimate consequences for the health of animal, including human, populations remains difficult. Wild animals play important roles in numerous infectious disease cycles, many of which are shared with humans. Considering this and the well-documented effects that human activity can have on wildlife populations, studying the impacts of anthropogenic environmental change on health in wildlife is highly relevant. To understand how human-induced environmental changes affect wildlife health and to make predictions about potential regional or even global consequences for the dynamics of infectious diseases, however, we first need to understand patterns at a local scale. Here, I describe variation in immune function in captive and wild rodent species native to managed forests in northwestern Oregon, and examine how intensive forest management practices affect these and other physiological processes, and the prevalence of infectious diseases, in a large-scale field experiment. In Chapter 2 of this dissertation, I present baseline data on simple immune parameters in an iconic inhabitant of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest, the red tree vole (Arborimus longicaudus). I show that both body condition and age are important for immune defenses in this species. Translating these findings to wild populations leads me to predict that degradation of habitat may affect red tree voles not only at the population scale, as is currently the case, but that less obvious consequences for the health of individuals surviving in disturbed or suboptimal habitat are also possible. It is important, therefore, that efforts to conserve this species consider adverse effects of present forest management practices on red tree vole health, as potentially increased disease susceptibility could have detrimental outcomes for this species. In Chapters 3 and 4, I took advantage of a rare and large-scale experiment to test my predictions regarding the negative consequences of habitat degradation for individual animals in more ubiquitous rodent species known for their resilience to environmental disturbance. I investigated the effects of intensive forest management on stress, health, and immunity (Chapter 3), and on the prevalence of infectious diseases transmissible to humans (Chapter 4) in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), Townsend chipmunks (Tamias townsendii), and creeping voles (Microtus oregoni) inhabiting managed forest plots in northwestern Oregon. The experimental design employed allowed me to test the effect of regionally representative forest management practices on health and disease outcomes with important implications for public health. In Chapter 3, I present results which suggest that intensive forest management can have complex, but highly context-dependent effects on the health of wild deer mice. Intensive forest management can shape animals’ condition and reproductive activity, increase levels of stress hormone, and stimulate some but depress other immune responses. However, deer mice are only able to respond to the extreme stressor of this disturbance when underlying environmental conditions are favorable. When inhabiting inherently harsh habitat, mice appear unable to cope with additional disturbance imposed by intensive forest management, and only the fittest mice survive. Finally, in Chapter 4, I identify moderate prevalence of two important and potentially fatal human infections in rodents inhabiting managed forests in northwestern Oregon. In deer mouse populations, Sin Nombre virus was clustered spatially, and prevalence varied between years. But, in the focus of highest infection, the proportion of infected mice, albeit low, appeared to increase with intensity of forest management. For Leptospirosis, I found a similar pattern in creeping voles, but did not observe an association between infection prevalence and forest management in deer mice or chipmunks. I conclude that forest management may drive infectious disease patterns, but that the direction and magnitude of such effects depends on the host-pathogen system. Taken together, my findings indicate that wild animal health can suffer from declines in habitat quality associated with forest management. For a near-threatened species such as the red tree vole, decreases in the availability of food and nesting habitat have the potential to change susceptibility to infection, which could facilitate disease invasion and further threaten populations. For wild animals that serve as reservoirs for human infections, especially abundant and apparently resilient species, impaired health can drive the dynamics of pathogens and increase the risk of transmission to humans and other animals. Although many more questions remain, my work contributes to our understanding of the effects of anthropogenic environmental change for wildlife and human health. Close

• 1453. [Article] Combined Effects of Intensive Forest Management and Microclimate on Reproduction in a Cavity-Nesting Songbird

  Future scenarios of global climate change rely on large-scale climate envelope models that do not account for local climatic conditions to which organisms most closely respond. Shifts in species distributions ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Combined Effects of Intensive Forest Management and Microclimate on Reproduction in a Cavity-Nesting Songbird Author: Jones, Kristin N. Future scenarios of global climate change rely on large-scale climate envelope models that do not account for local climatic conditions to which organisms most closely respond. Shifts in species distributions and phenology driven by climate change are well-documented, yet we lack a strong understanding of how climate change will influence the demographic rates of animal populations, which directly determine the likelihood of species persistence. Land cover change, an agent of global change that is increasing in extent and intensity to meet the needs of a growing human population, can combine with climate change to stress animal populations by altering microclimatic conditions, as well as changing the availability of resources such as food and cover from predators. Thus, identifying the individual and combined effects of climate and land management practices is essential to accurately predict the responses of animal populations to global change. Intensive forest management results in land cover change by suppressing the growth of competing plant species in favor of commercial species and altering the abundance and composition of forest vegetation. In turn, changes in the abundance and composition of forest vegetation can modify local air temperatures. I hypothesized that herbicide application would alter the thermal environment for early-seral forest organisms (Chapter 2). If this were the case, then air temperature could be expected to increase in magnitude and variability along a gradient of herbicide treatment intensity. To test this hypothesis, I used iButton dataloggers to monitor air temperature at 160 nest boxes on 20 intensively managed early-seral forest stands (10.4 - 18.9) in the northern Oregon Coast Range, USA representing a gradient in intensive forest management (i.e., no-spray control, light, moderate and intensive herbicide application). I also measured the amount and composition of vegetation cover to test for herbicide effects on vegetation among application intensities. Using linear mixed models, I compared three measures of air temperature (mean daily minimum, mean, and maximum) and their associated coefficients of variation (CVs). Additionally, I used linear mixed models to confirm differences in total vegetation and broadleaved vegetation cover. Although mean total vegetation cover generally decreased, it did not significantly differ among herbicide treatments; in contrast, mean broadleaved vegetation cover was significantly reduced in the moderate and intensive treatments. Herbicide treatment was a significant predictor of maximum and mean temperatures, but minimum temperatures did not differ with herbicide treatment. Although there was an effect of herbicide treatment on air temperature, corrected pairwise comparisons indicated no significant differences among treatments. I note that though my power to detect statistical differences among treatments was limited, these differences were quite small (< 0.5°C) and confidence intervals were generally relatively narrow (< 1.5°C), suggesting that temperature did not differ among herbicide treatments in biologically meaningful ways. Furthermore, I did not detect an effect of herbicide treatment on temperature variability. Estimated differences in temperature variability among treatments were small (< 0.5%) and confidence intervals covered a relatively broad range of values, indicating that I did not have enough statistical power to detect effects. I found no uniform pattern in the direction (positive or negative) of the effect of herbicide treatment on temperature or CVs among treatment intensities. Daily air temperatures can strongly influence the reproductive output of early-seral songbirds if temperatures exceed physiological tolerances of offspring, decreasing physiological performance (e.g., excessively high and low temperatures can alter metabolic rates) and survival. Moreover, the abundance and composition of early-seral forest vegetation can influence songbird reproductive output through changes in nest predator communities, food resources, or both. Thus, I further hypothesized that intensive forest management practices could combine with intraseasonal air temperatures to impact reproductive output in an insectivorous cavity-nesting songbird, the House Wren (Trogolodytes aedon) (Chapter 3). If this were the case, then House Wren nest survival, the number of offspring produced, and the quality of those offspring would decline with greater management intensity and increasing air temperatures. To test these predictions, I monitored 283 nests on 24 intensively managed early-seral forest stands (8.6 - 18.9 ha) in the northern Oregon Coast Range, USA representing a gradient in intensive forest management (i.e., no-spray control, light, moderate and intensive herbicide application). I used data from Chapter 2 to test for combined effects of air temperature and herbicide-driven vegetation changes on House Wren reproductive output. Using linear mixed models within a model selection framework, I did not find support for combined effects of temperature and herbicide treatment on nest survival. After accounting for the effects of herbicide-driven vegetation changes on reproductive output, air temperature effects were negligible. My results suggest that post-harvest vegetation management likely does not influence the number of young produced nor their quality (as indicated by body condition) in intensively managed early-seral forests, but may influence nest survival. However, nest survival did not decline along a gradient of herbicide intensity as I expected. Instead, mean nest survival was greatest in the control and most intensively managed stands (failure was greatest in the light treatment); however, these effects were so variable as to not be statistically significant. My results suggest that post-harvest vegetation management in intensively managed forests may be linked to minor changes in microclimatic air temperatures, but that there is high variation in these effects and effects are likely small. Therefore, there appears to be limited potential for vegetation control strategies through herbicides to buffer expected climate change effects on organisms in early-seral forest. My results also suggest that the potential for combined effects of herbicide application and air temperature on early-seral cavity-nesting songbirds is limited. Under current local climate patterns, air temperature appears to exert negligible effects on House Wren reproductive output after accounting for changes in vegetation cover. The effects of herbicide-driven vegetation changes on early-seral songbirds may be large, though highly variable, and not an increasing function of herbicide intensity. These effects may be primarily predator-mediated, as indicated by the large effects of herbicide treatment on House Wren nest survival but not the number of offspring produced nor their quality. My finding of limited temperature effects on House Wren reproductive output compared to the effects of forest management intensity supports predictions that, despite increasing concerns over the impacts of advancing climate change on animal populations, land cover change driven by anthropogenic land use will continue to be the primary global change driver impacting animal populations in the near future. Title: Combined Effects of Intensive Forest Management and Microclimate on Reproduction in a Cavity-Nesting Songbird Author: Jones, Kristin N. Future scenarios of global climate change rely on large-scale climate envelope models that do not account for local climatic conditions to which organisms most closely respond. Shifts in species distributions and phenology driven by climate change are well-documented, yet we lack a strong understanding of how climate change will influence the demographic rates of animal populations, which directly determine the likelihood of species persistence. Land cover change, an agent of global change that is increasing in extent and intensity to meet the needs of a growing human population, can combine with climate change to stress animal populations by altering microclimatic conditions, as well as changing the availability of resources such as food and cover from predators. Thus, identifying the individual and combined effects of climate and land management practices is essential to accurately predict the responses of animal populations to global change. Intensive forest management results in land cover change by suppressing the growth of competing plant species in favor of commercial species and altering the abundance and composition of forest vegetation. In turn, changes in the abundance and composition of forest vegetation can modify local air temperatures. I hypothesized that herbicide application would alter the thermal environment for early-seral forest organisms (Chapter 2). If this were the case, then air temperature could be expected to increase in magnitude and variability along a gradient of herbicide treatment intensity. To test this hypothesis, I used iButton dataloggers to monitor air temperature at 160 nest boxes on 20 intensively managed early-seral forest stands (10.4 - 18.9) in the northern Oregon Coast Range, USA representing a gradient in intensive forest management (i.e., no-spray control, light, moderate and intensive herbicide application). I also measured the amount and composition of vegetation cover to test for herbicide effects on vegetation among application intensities. Using linear mixed models, I compared three measures of air temperature (mean daily minimum, mean, and maximum) and their associated coefficients of variation (CVs). Additionally, I used linear mixed models to confirm differences in total vegetation and broadleaved vegetation cover. Although mean total vegetation cover generally decreased, it did not significantly differ among herbicide treatments; in contrast, mean broadleaved vegetation cover was significantly reduced in the moderate and intensive treatments. Herbicide treatment was a significant predictor of maximum and mean temperatures, but minimum temperatures did not differ with herbicide treatment. Although there was an effect of herbicide treatment on air temperature, corrected pairwise comparisons indicated no significant differences among treatments. I note that though my power to detect statistical differences among treatments was limited, these differences were quite small (< 0.5°C) and confidence intervals were generally relatively narrow (< 1.5°C), suggesting that temperature did not differ among herbicide treatments in biologically meaningful ways. Furthermore, I did not detect an effect of herbicide treatment on temperature variability. Estimated differences in temperature variability among treatments were small (< 0.5%) and confidence intervals covered a relatively broad range of values, indicating that I did not have enough statistical power to detect effects. I found no uniform pattern in the direction (positive or negative) of the effect of herbicide treatment on temperature or CVs among treatment intensities. Daily air temperatures can strongly influence the reproductive output of early-seral songbirds if temperatures exceed physiological tolerances of offspring, decreasing physiological performance (e.g., excessively high and low temperatures can alter metabolic rates) and survival. Moreover, the abundance and composition of early-seral forest vegetation can influence songbird reproductive output through changes in nest predator communities, food resources, or both. Thus, I further hypothesized that intensive forest management practices could combine with intraseasonal air temperatures to impact reproductive output in an insectivorous cavity-nesting songbird, the House Wren (Trogolodytes aedon) (Chapter 3). If this were the case, then House Wren nest survival, the number of offspring produced, and the quality of those offspring would decline with greater management intensity and increasing air temperatures. To test these predictions, I monitored 283 nests on 24 intensively managed early-seral forest stands (8.6 - 18.9 ha) in the northern Oregon Coast Range, USA representing a gradient in intensive forest management (i.e., no-spray control, light, moderate and intensive herbicide application). I used data from Chapter 2 to test for combined effects of air temperature and herbicide-driven vegetation changes on House Wren reproductive output. Using linear mixed models within a model selection framework, I did not find support for combined effects of temperature and herbicide treatment on nest survival. After accounting for the effects of herbicide-driven vegetation changes on reproductive output, air temperature effects were negligible. My results suggest that post-harvest vegetation management likely does not influence the number of young produced nor their quality (as indicated by body condition) in intensively managed early-seral forests, but may influence nest survival. However, nest survival did not decline along a gradient of herbicide intensity as I expected. Instead, mean nest survival was greatest in the control and most intensively managed stands (failure was greatest in the light treatment); however, these effects were so variable as to not be statistically significant. My results suggest that post-harvest vegetation management in intensively managed forests may be linked to minor changes in microclimatic air temperatures, but that there is high variation in these effects and effects are likely small. Therefore, there appears to be limited potential for vegetation control strategies through herbicides to buffer expected climate change effects on organisms in early-seral forest. My results also suggest that the potential for combined effects of herbicide application and air temperature on early-seral cavity-nesting songbirds is limited. Under current local climate patterns, air temperature appears to exert negligible effects on House Wren reproductive output after accounting for changes in vegetation cover. The effects of herbicide-driven vegetation changes on early-seral songbirds may be large, though highly variable, and not an increasing function of herbicide intensity. These effects may be primarily predator-mediated, as indicated by the large effects of herbicide treatment on House Wren nest survival but not the number of offspring produced nor their quality. My finding of limited temperature effects on House Wren reproductive output compared to the effects of forest management intensity supports predictions that, despite increasing concerns over the impacts of advancing climate change on animal populations, land cover change driven by anthropogenic land use will continue to be the primary global change driver impacting animal populations in the near future. Close

• 1454. [Article] Quantitative Tools for Monitoring Strategy Evaluation and Assessment of Sea Turtle Populations

  Green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, have endangered and threatened populations globally, but several populations show signs of population recovery. In Hawaii, nesting female green turtles have increased ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Quantitative Tools for Monitoring Strategy Evaluation and Assessment of Sea Turtle Populations Author: Piacenza, Susan E. H. Green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, have endangered and threatened populations globally, but several populations show signs of population recovery. In Hawaii, nesting female green turtles have increased 5.7% year⁻¹ since 1973, but wide fluctuations in census counts of nesting females make recovery diagnosis difficult. For effective management planning, it is critical to have the best information possible on vital rates, and to determine the best tools and practices for incorporating vital rate information, particularly variability, into population models to assess population size and status. Process and observation errors, compounded by late maturity, obscure the relationship between trends on the nesting beach and the entire population. Using sea turtle nesting beach surveys as a population index for assessment is problematic, yet often pragmatic because this is the only population index that is easily accessible. It is advantageous to use a modelling approach that estimates interannual variability in life history traits, accounts for uncertainty from individual-level variability, and allows for population dynamics to emerge from individual behaviors. To this end, I analyzed a long-term data set of marked green sea turtles to determine the degree of temporal variability in key life history traits. From this analysis, I built an agent-based model (ABM) to form the basis of a new assessment tool -- Monitoring Strategy Evaluation. In Chapter 2, I evaluated annual changes in demographic indicators (DIs) of 3,677 nesting green turtles from a 38-year tagging program in the Hawaiian Islands to determine if key life history traits are changing over time and in response to nester density. I used linear mixed models and multistate open robust design models to estimate several DIs and correlated them with nesting female counts. Mean nester carapace length and breeding probability were highly variable over time, suggesting shifts in age structure that could be due to recruitment. The top-ranked model predicted constant female survival over time. A significant positive relationship between the nesting population and breeding probability was evident, and breeding probability shows promise as an indicator of population recovery. This work contributes to a growing set of studies evaluating sea turtle demography for temporal variability and is the first for Hawaiian green turtles. In Chapter 3, I develop the Green Sea Turtle Agent-Based Model (GSTABM) to evaluate how recovery processes differ across disturbance types. The GSTABM incorporates individually variable age-at-maturity, clutch frequency and clutch size, annually variable breeding probability, environmental stochasticity and density dependence in hatchling production. The GSTABM simulates the process of population impact and recovery and the monitoring process, with observation error, on the nesting beach. The GSTABM captures the emergent patterns of interannual nesting variation, nester recruitment, and realistic population growth rates. Changes in survival rates of the nearshore age-stage classes directly affected adult and nester abundance, population growth rate and nester recruitment more than any of the other input parameters. In simulating 100 years of recovery, experimentally disturbed populations began to increase but did not fully return to pre-disturbance levels in adult and nester abundance, population growth or nester recruitment. In simulations with different levels of monitoring effort, adult abundance was poorly estimated, was influenced by population trajectory and disturbance type, and showed marginal improvements in accuracy with increased detection probability. Estimating recruitment showed improvements with increasing detection levels. In the GSTABM, variability in the nesting beach does not mirror variability in adult abundance. The GSTABM is an important tool to determine relationships with monitoring, population assessment, and the underlying biological processes driving changes in the population, and especially, changes on the nesting beach. In Chapter 4, I develop a new simulation-based tool: Monitoring Strategy Evaluation (MoSE) to determine which data source yields the most useful information for population assessments. The MoSE has three main components: the simulated "true" operating, observation, and estimation models. To explore this first use of MoSE, I apply different treatments of disturbance, sampling, and detection to the virtual "true" population, and then sample the nests or nesters, with observation error, to test if the observation "data" accurately diagnose population status indicators. Based on the observed data, I estimated adult abundance, nester recruitment, and population trend and compare them to the known values. I tested the accuracy of the estimated abundance when annually varying inputs of breeding probability, detection and clutch frequency were used instead of constants. I also explored the improvement of trend accuracy with increased study duration. Disturbance type and severity can have important and persistent effects on the accuracy of population assessments drawn from monitoring rookeries. Accuracy in abundance estimates may be most improved by avoiding clutch frequency bias in sampling and including annually varying inputs in the estimation model. Accuracy of nester recruitment may be most improved by increasing detection level and avoiding age-bias in sampling. The accuracy of estimating population trend is most influenced by the underlying population trajectory, disturbance type and disturbance severity. At least 10 years of monitoring data are necessary to accurately estimate population trend, and longer if juvenile age classes were disturbed and trend estimates occur during the recovery phase. The MoSE is an important tool for sea turtle biologists and conservation managers and allows biologists to make informed decisions regarding the best monitoring strategies to employ for sea turtles. This modeling framework is designed to provide an evaluation of monitoring program effectiveness to assist in planning future programs for sea turtles. Altogether, my research suggests certain life history traits of green sea turtles have important temporal variation that should be accounted for in population models, understanding the relationships between nesting and the total population is essential, and basing population assessments from nesting beach data alone is likely to result in incorrect or biased estimates of status indicators. The quantitative tools employed here can be applied to other sea turtle populations and will improve monitoring, and result in better estimates of current population trends and enhance conservation for all species of sea turtles. Title: Quantitative Tools for Monitoring Strategy Evaluation and Assessment of Sea Turtle Populations Author: Piacenza, Susan E. H. Green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, have endangered and threatened populations globally, but several populations show signs of population recovery. In Hawaii, nesting female green turtles have increased 5.7% year⁻¹ since 1973, but wide fluctuations in census counts of nesting females make recovery diagnosis difficult. For effective management planning, it is critical to have the best information possible on vital rates, and to determine the best tools and practices for incorporating vital rate information, particularly variability, into population models to assess population size and status. Process and observation errors, compounded by late maturity, obscure the relationship between trends on the nesting beach and the entire population. Using sea turtle nesting beach surveys as a population index for assessment is problematic, yet often pragmatic because this is the only population index that is easily accessible. It is advantageous to use a modelling approach that estimates interannual variability in life history traits, accounts for uncertainty from individual-level variability, and allows for population dynamics to emerge from individual behaviors. To this end, I analyzed a long-term data set of marked green sea turtles to determine the degree of temporal variability in key life history traits. From this analysis, I built an agent-based model (ABM) to form the basis of a new assessment tool -- Monitoring Strategy Evaluation. In Chapter 2, I evaluated annual changes in demographic indicators (DIs) of 3,677 nesting green turtles from a 38-year tagging program in the Hawaiian Islands to determine if key life history traits are changing over time and in response to nester density. I used linear mixed models and multistate open robust design models to estimate several DIs and correlated them with nesting female counts. Mean nester carapace length and breeding probability were highly variable over time, suggesting shifts in age structure that could be due to recruitment. The top-ranked model predicted constant female survival over time. A significant positive relationship between the nesting population and breeding probability was evident, and breeding probability shows promise as an indicator of population recovery. This work contributes to a growing set of studies evaluating sea turtle demography for temporal variability and is the first for Hawaiian green turtles. In Chapter 3, I develop the Green Sea Turtle Agent-Based Model (GSTABM) to evaluate how recovery processes differ across disturbance types. The GSTABM incorporates individually variable age-at-maturity, clutch frequency and clutch size, annually variable breeding probability, environmental stochasticity and density dependence in hatchling production. The GSTABM simulates the process of population impact and recovery and the monitoring process, with observation error, on the nesting beach. The GSTABM captures the emergent patterns of interannual nesting variation, nester recruitment, and realistic population growth rates. Changes in survival rates of the nearshore age-stage classes directly affected adult and nester abundance, population growth rate and nester recruitment more than any of the other input parameters. In simulating 100 years of recovery, experimentally disturbed populations began to increase but did not fully return to pre-disturbance levels in adult and nester abundance, population growth or nester recruitment. In simulations with different levels of monitoring effort, adult abundance was poorly estimated, was influenced by population trajectory and disturbance type, and showed marginal improvements in accuracy with increased detection probability. Estimating recruitment showed improvements with increasing detection levels. In the GSTABM, variability in the nesting beach does not mirror variability in adult abundance. The GSTABM is an important tool to determine relationships with monitoring, population assessment, and the underlying biological processes driving changes in the population, and especially, changes on the nesting beach. In Chapter 4, I develop a new simulation-based tool: Monitoring Strategy Evaluation (MoSE) to determine which data source yields the most useful information for population assessments. The MoSE has three main components: the simulated "true" operating, observation, and estimation models. To explore this first use of MoSE, I apply different treatments of disturbance, sampling, and detection to the virtual "true" population, and then sample the nests or nesters, with observation error, to test if the observation "data" accurately diagnose population status indicators. Based on the observed data, I estimated adult abundance, nester recruitment, and population trend and compare them to the known values. I tested the accuracy of the estimated abundance when annually varying inputs of breeding probability, detection and clutch frequency were used instead of constants. I also explored the improvement of trend accuracy with increased study duration. Disturbance type and severity can have important and persistent effects on the accuracy of population assessments drawn from monitoring rookeries. Accuracy in abundance estimates may be most improved by avoiding clutch frequency bias in sampling and including annually varying inputs in the estimation model. Accuracy of nester recruitment may be most improved by increasing detection level and avoiding age-bias in sampling. The accuracy of estimating population trend is most influenced by the underlying population trajectory, disturbance type and disturbance severity. At least 10 years of monitoring data are necessary to accurately estimate population trend, and longer if juvenile age classes were disturbed and trend estimates occur during the recovery phase. The MoSE is an important tool for sea turtle biologists and conservation managers and allows biologists to make informed decisions regarding the best monitoring strategies to employ for sea turtles. This modeling framework is designed to provide an evaluation of monitoring program effectiveness to assist in planning future programs for sea turtles. Altogether, my research suggests certain life history traits of green sea turtles have important temporal variation that should be accounted for in population models, understanding the relationships between nesting and the total population is essential, and basing population assessments from nesting beach data alone is likely to result in incorrect or biased estimates of status indicators. The quantitative tools employed here can be applied to other sea turtle populations and will improve monitoring, and result in better estimates of current population trends and enhance conservation for all species of sea turtles. Close

• 1455. [Article] Factors affecting contraceptive use among women of reproductive age in northern Jordan : a framework for health policy action

  Jordan has a higher fertility rate (3.8) than the averages of countries similar in income to Jordan (2.2) and compared to the Middle East and North Africa region as a whole (2.8) (WHO, WB, UNICEF, & DHS, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Factors affecting contraceptive use among women of reproductive age in northern Jordan : a framework for health policy action Author: Hijazi, Heba Hesham Jordan has a higher fertility rate (3.8) than the averages of countries similar in income to Jordan (2.2) and compared to the Middle East and North Africa region as a whole (2.8) (WHO, WB, UNICEF, & DHS, 2011). The findings of the 2009 Jordanian Population and Family Health Survey demonstrated that the total fertility rate (TFR) has stopped declining in the country since 2002 (DOS, 2010b; USAID, 2010). The prevalence of contraceptive use has also shown little change in Jordan over the last decade (DOS, 2010b; USAID, 2010). Given that contraception is one of the proximate determinants of fertility (Rahayu et al., 2009), the main purpose of this study was to investigate which factors are contributing to women's current contraceptive behavior and intention for future contraceptive use. Research questions were developed in a comprehensive framework that considers women's intention and actual behavior as outcomes of various interactive factors within a socio-cultural context. In particular, the study's framework was directed by a theoretical basis adapted from Ajzen and Fishbein's Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and an extensive review of the available literature in the research area. Obviously, the social set-up and cultural norms in the study setting, together with attitudes toward children and family, represent a traditional scenario that could help explain the consistency of fertility and contraceptive use in the country. Further, the influences of background characteristics on women's contraceptive behaviors and intentions provide another scenario that could help assess the current situation of family planning (FP) in Jordan. In this study, demographic factors, spousal communication variables and healthcare system-related factors are all defined as background characteristics. Attitudes and social norms reflect the women's behavioral determinants and represent the main constructs of the TRA. In fact, involving a set of factors related to women's beliefs and social norms in the study's framework provided an opportunity to explore how these factors might promote or inhibit a woman's intentions and behaviors in respect to contraceptive use. In a three-manuscript format, this research was designed to achieve a number of objectives. The first manuscript aimed at identifying the major factors associated with the current use of contraception among women of childbearing age in northern Jordan. The second manuscript focused on investigating the main factors that are associated with women's contraceptive method preference (e.g. the choice of modern contraceptives as effective methods in preventing pregnancy versus the choice of traditional contraceptives as methods with high failure rates). The third manuscript attempted to explore the key factors associated with women's intention for future contraceptive use since the existence of such an intention would consequently translate into an actual behavior later. In 2010, original cross-section data were collected by means of a face-to-face interview using a structured pre-tested survey. The study sample included women who were currently married and were between 18 and 49 years old. Applying a systematic random sampling procedure, all respondents were recruited from the waiting rooms of five randomly selected Maternal and Child Health (MCH) centers in the Governorate of Irbid, northern Jordan. Using a list provided by the Ministry of Health, all centers in the Governorate were stratified according to the region (urban vs. rural) and randomly selected in proportion to their number in each region. The final sample size for this research consisted of 536 women surveyed, giving a response rate of 92.4 percent. Utilizing logistic regression analyses, the results of the dissertation manuscripts indicate that women's behaviors and intentions toward the use of contraception are affected by a number of factors at the individual, familial and institutional levels. The findings that emerged from the three manuscripts provide health professionals and policy makers with important information to assist in the design of FP programs and campaigns aimed at increasing current contraceptive use, enhancing the adoption of modern contraception and motivating the intention for future contraceptive use. This research strongly suggests that health professionals develop health policies that both expand the availability of MCH centers and strengthen the role of healthcare providers to dispel the numerous rumors and misconceptions surrounding the use of contraceptives, particularly modern ones. Health workers at the MCH centers need to ensure that women have sufficient information about the benefits and side effects of different types of contraception by offering proper FP counseling. The messages that religious leaders can use in advocating for FP would also help make contraceptive use socially acceptable since their opinions are often followed by the majority. This would be a key step toward removing the barriers to contraceptive use. Moreover, to design effective FP interventions, planners should take into account women's attitudes toward the use of contraceptive methods and the components of those attitudes (e.g. women's approval of contraceptive use for birth spacing and perceptions regarding the value of large family sizes and the importance of having male children in Jordanian families). Title: Factors affecting contraceptive use among women of reproductive age in northern Jordan : a framework for health policy action Author: Hijazi, Heba Hesham Jordan has a higher fertility rate (3.8) than the averages of countries similar in income to Jordan (2.2) and compared to the Middle East and North Africa region as a whole (2.8) (WHO, WB, UNICEF, & DHS, 2011). The findings of the 2009 Jordanian Population and Family Health Survey demonstrated that the total fertility rate (TFR) has stopped declining in the country since 2002 (DOS, 2010b; USAID, 2010). The prevalence of contraceptive use has also shown little change in Jordan over the last decade (DOS, 2010b; USAID, 2010). Given that contraception is one of the proximate determinants of fertility (Rahayu et al., 2009), the main purpose of this study was to investigate which factors are contributing to women's current contraceptive behavior and intention for future contraceptive use. Research questions were developed in a comprehensive framework that considers women's intention and actual behavior as outcomes of various interactive factors within a socio-cultural context. In particular, the study's framework was directed by a theoretical basis adapted from Ajzen and Fishbein's Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and an extensive review of the available literature in the research area. Obviously, the social set-up and cultural norms in the study setting, together with attitudes toward children and family, represent a traditional scenario that could help explain the consistency of fertility and contraceptive use in the country. Further, the influences of background characteristics on women's contraceptive behaviors and intentions provide another scenario that could help assess the current situation of family planning (FP) in Jordan. In this study, demographic factors, spousal communication variables and healthcare system-related factors are all defined as background characteristics. Attitudes and social norms reflect the women's behavioral determinants and represent the main constructs of the TRA. In fact, involving a set of factors related to women's beliefs and social norms in the study's framework provided an opportunity to explore how these factors might promote or inhibit a woman's intentions and behaviors in respect to contraceptive use. In a three-manuscript format, this research was designed to achieve a number of objectives. The first manuscript aimed at identifying the major factors associated with the current use of contraception among women of childbearing age in northern Jordan. The second manuscript focused on investigating the main factors that are associated with women's contraceptive method preference (e.g. the choice of modern contraceptives as effective methods in preventing pregnancy versus the choice of traditional contraceptives as methods with high failure rates). The third manuscript attempted to explore the key factors associated with women's intention for future contraceptive use since the existence of such an intention would consequently translate into an actual behavior later. In 2010, original cross-section data were collected by means of a face-to-face interview using a structured pre-tested survey. The study sample included women who were currently married and were between 18 and 49 years old. Applying a systematic random sampling procedure, all respondents were recruited from the waiting rooms of five randomly selected Maternal and Child Health (MCH) centers in the Governorate of Irbid, northern Jordan. Using a list provided by the Ministry of Health, all centers in the Governorate were stratified according to the region (urban vs. rural) and randomly selected in proportion to their number in each region. The final sample size for this research consisted of 536 women surveyed, giving a response rate of 92.4 percent. Utilizing logistic regression analyses, the results of the dissertation manuscripts indicate that women's behaviors and intentions toward the use of contraception are affected by a number of factors at the individual, familial and institutional levels. The findings that emerged from the three manuscripts provide health professionals and policy makers with important information to assist in the design of FP programs and campaigns aimed at increasing current contraceptive use, enhancing the adoption of modern contraception and motivating the intention for future contraceptive use. This research strongly suggests that health professionals develop health policies that both expand the availability of MCH centers and strengthen the role of healthcare providers to dispel the numerous rumors and misconceptions surrounding the use of contraceptives, particularly modern ones. Health workers at the MCH centers need to ensure that women have sufficient information about the benefits and side effects of different types of contraception by offering proper FP counseling. The messages that religious leaders can use in advocating for FP would also help make contraceptive use socially acceptable since their opinions are often followed by the majority. This would be a key step toward removing the barriers to contraceptive use. Moreover, to design effective FP interventions, planners should take into account women's attitudes toward the use of contraceptive methods and the components of those attitudes (e.g. women's approval of contraceptive use for birth spacing and perceptions regarding the value of large family sizes and the importance of having male children in Jordanian families). Close

• 1456. [Article] Effects of a Wind Energy Development on Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat Selection and Population Demographics in Southeastern Wyoming

  Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc. and Wyoming Wildlife Consultants, LLC initiated a greater sage-grouse radio-telemetry study at an existing wind energy development in southeastern Wyoming in 2009. The ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Effects of a Wind Energy Development on Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat Selection and Population Demographics in Southeastern Wyoming Author: LeBeau, Chad W. Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc. and Wyoming Wildlife Consultants, LLC initiated a greater sage-grouse radio-telemetry study at an existing wind energy development in southeastern Wyoming in 2009. The University of Wyoming joined this collaborative effort in January 2010, and the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative joined the effort in March 2011. The overall goal of the research was to establish the population-level effects of wind energy development on female sage-grouse seasonal habitat selection and demography. This study represents the only situation in the US where the responses of greater sage-grouse to the infrastructure associated with a wind energy development has been investigated. Our primary objective was to discern the relationship between sage-grouse nest, brood-rearing, and summer habitat selection patterns and survival parameters and the infrastructure of an existing wind energy facility. The Seven Mile Hill (SMH) study area was located north of Interstate 80 and south of the Shirley Basin in Carbon County, Wyoming, US. A control and treatment area was included in the SMH study area, with boundaries of each of these areas determined from lek locations and radio-marked female sage-grouse distributions. The Seven Mile Hill Wind Energy Facility (SWEF; located in the treatment area) consisted of 79 General Electric 1.5-MW wind turbines and approximately 29 km of access roads. The facility became fully operational in December 2008. In addition to the SWEF, other anthropogenic features present in this portion of the study area included approximately eight km of paved roads and 26 km of overhead transmission lines. The control study area had no wind turbines and was adjacent to the SWEF and south of US Highway 30/287. There were approximately 50 km of paved roads and 17 km of overhead transmission lines in this area. The treatment area had four leks that had an average distance of 1.93 km from the nearest SWEF turbines (range = 0.53 to 4.15 km), while the control group consisted of 6 leks with an average distance of 10.99 km from the nearest SWEF turbine (range = 7.09 to 16.16 km). We captured and radio-equipped 346 (160 treatment; 186 control) female sage-grouse within an area consisting of a wind energy development and a control area absent of wind energy development in southeastern Wyoming from 2009–2014. We relocated each radio-marked female approximately twice a week during the nesting, brood rearing, and summer periods. We developed a suite of anthropogenic, vegetation, and environmental covariates to estimate habitat selection and survival for all sage-grouse during the nesting, brood rearing, and summer periods. We used a discrete choice habitat selection model to estimate the relative probability of sage-grouse nest site, brood-rearing, and summer habitat selection within both the control and treatment areas during the post-development period. We did not detect a negative impact of the wind energy facility on nest site selection during the study period. Sage-grouse rearing broods generally avoided suitable brood-rearing habitat near anthropogenic infrastructure that includes wind energy development, major paved roads and transmission lines. Although avoidance was consistent across the years of our study, avoidance of wind turbines was more pronounced in 2012-2014 compared to 2009-2011, suggesting a lag period in the ultimate population-level response to the development of a wind energy facility. Although distance to turbine was not strongly associated with summer habitat selection, the percentage of disturbance associated with wind energy infrastructure did appear to influence summer habitat selection. In addition, we estimated survival during each seasonal period to estimate the effect of the SWEF on population fitness. The SWEF did not have a negative effect on sage-grouse nest survival within the study area over the six-year period, and nest survival did not differ between nests of females captured at treatment and control area leks over the study period. The SWEF did not have a negative effect on sage-grouse brood survival within the study area over the six-year period. Survival was related to habitat features and anthropogenic features that have existed on the landscape for >10 years. Lastly, the SWEF did not have a negative effect on female sage-grouse summer survival within the study area over the six-year period. After controlling for annual and natural variability, we observed a positive effect of the SWEF on female survival when the percentage of disturbance within 0.81 km of a sage-grouse location increased from 0% to 3%. Our study is the first to estimate the impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse habitat selection and fitness parameters. Female sage-grouse selection of seasonal habitats was variable relative to the infrastructure associated with wind energy facility, but fitness parameters did not appear to be influenced to a great degree by the infrastructure. This pattern of effect is similar to greater prairie-chicken response to a wind energy facility in Kansas but opposite of sage-grouse response to oil and gas development. Ideally, we would have preconstruction data to identify changes in the population and decipher mechanisms in sage-grouse response to infrastructure; however, we are confident that if such impacts to habitat selection and survival did occur then we would have been able to detect these changes over the 6-year study period. The lack of other studies investigating impacts from wind energy development to sage-grouse habitat selection and survival limits our ability to make inferences about the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse, but we were able to describe some of the impacts that wind energy developments may have on sage-grouse populations. Although we attempted to account for possible confounding factors, there is the chance that we did not detect important interactions between environmental features and habitat selection and survival patterns. Future wind energy developments should consider the potential impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse habitat selection patterns and survival parameters. We recommend facilities similar in size that occupy similar habitats as our study be placed 1.20 km from any occupied sage-grouse nesting, brood-rearing, or summer habitats. We recommend that future research consider predator-prey mechanisms by estimating both avian and mammalian predator densities to better understand the impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse fitness parameters and to develop appropriate mitigation measures. Title: Effects of a Wind Energy Development on Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat Selection and Population Demographics in Southeastern Wyoming Author: LeBeau, Chad W. Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc. and Wyoming Wildlife Consultants, LLC initiated a greater sage-grouse radio-telemetry study at an existing wind energy development in southeastern Wyoming in 2009. The University of Wyoming joined this collaborative effort in January 2010, and the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative joined the effort in March 2011. The overall goal of the research was to establish the population-level effects of wind energy development on female sage-grouse seasonal habitat selection and demography. This study represents the only situation in the US where the responses of greater sage-grouse to the infrastructure associated with a wind energy development has been investigated. Our primary objective was to discern the relationship between sage-grouse nest, brood-rearing, and summer habitat selection patterns and survival parameters and the infrastructure of an existing wind energy facility. The Seven Mile Hill (SMH) study area was located north of Interstate 80 and south of the Shirley Basin in Carbon County, Wyoming, US. A control and treatment area was included in the SMH study area, with boundaries of each of these areas determined from lek locations and radio-marked female sage-grouse distributions. The Seven Mile Hill Wind Energy Facility (SWEF; located in the treatment area) consisted of 79 General Electric 1.5-MW wind turbines and approximately 29 km of access roads. The facility became fully operational in December 2008. In addition to the SWEF, other anthropogenic features present in this portion of the study area included approximately eight km of paved roads and 26 km of overhead transmission lines. The control study area had no wind turbines and was adjacent to the SWEF and south of US Highway 30/287. There were approximately 50 km of paved roads and 17 km of overhead transmission lines in this area. The treatment area had four leks that had an average distance of 1.93 km from the nearest SWEF turbines (range = 0.53 to 4.15 km), while the control group consisted of 6 leks with an average distance of 10.99 km from the nearest SWEF turbine (range = 7.09 to 16.16 km). We captured and radio-equipped 346 (160 treatment; 186 control) female sage-grouse within an area consisting of a wind energy development and a control area absent of wind energy development in southeastern Wyoming from 2009–2014. We relocated each radio-marked female approximately twice a week during the nesting, brood rearing, and summer periods. We developed a suite of anthropogenic, vegetation, and environmental covariates to estimate habitat selection and survival for all sage-grouse during the nesting, brood rearing, and summer periods. We used a discrete choice habitat selection model to estimate the relative probability of sage-grouse nest site, brood-rearing, and summer habitat selection within both the control and treatment areas during the post-development period. We did not detect a negative impact of the wind energy facility on nest site selection during the study period. Sage-grouse rearing broods generally avoided suitable brood-rearing habitat near anthropogenic infrastructure that includes wind energy development, major paved roads and transmission lines. Although avoidance was consistent across the years of our study, avoidance of wind turbines was more pronounced in 2012-2014 compared to 2009-2011, suggesting a lag period in the ultimate population-level response to the development of a wind energy facility. Although distance to turbine was not strongly associated with summer habitat selection, the percentage of disturbance associated with wind energy infrastructure did appear to influence summer habitat selection. In addition, we estimated survival during each seasonal period to estimate the effect of the SWEF on population fitness. The SWEF did not have a negative effect on sage-grouse nest survival within the study area over the six-year period, and nest survival did not differ between nests of females captured at treatment and control area leks over the study period. The SWEF did not have a negative effect on sage-grouse brood survival within the study area over the six-year period. Survival was related to habitat features and anthropogenic features that have existed on the landscape for >10 years. Lastly, the SWEF did not have a negative effect on female sage-grouse summer survival within the study area over the six-year period. After controlling for annual and natural variability, we observed a positive effect of the SWEF on female survival when the percentage of disturbance within 0.81 km of a sage-grouse location increased from 0% to 3%. Our study is the first to estimate the impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse habitat selection and fitness parameters. Female sage-grouse selection of seasonal habitats was variable relative to the infrastructure associated with wind energy facility, but fitness parameters did not appear to be influenced to a great degree by the infrastructure. This pattern of effect is similar to greater prairie-chicken response to a wind energy facility in Kansas but opposite of sage-grouse response to oil and gas development. Ideally, we would have preconstruction data to identify changes in the population and decipher mechanisms in sage-grouse response to infrastructure; however, we are confident that if such impacts to habitat selection and survival did occur then we would have been able to detect these changes over the 6-year study period. The lack of other studies investigating impacts from wind energy development to sage-grouse habitat selection and survival limits our ability to make inferences about the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse, but we were able to describe some of the impacts that wind energy developments may have on sage-grouse populations. Although we attempted to account for possible confounding factors, there is the chance that we did not detect important interactions between environmental features and habitat selection and survival patterns. Future wind energy developments should consider the potential impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse habitat selection patterns and survival parameters. We recommend facilities similar in size that occupy similar habitats as our study be placed 1.20 km from any occupied sage-grouse nesting, brood-rearing, or summer habitats. We recommend that future research consider predator-prey mechanisms by estimating both avian and mammalian predator densities to better understand the impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse fitness parameters and to develop appropriate mitigation measures. Close

• 1457. [Article] Constraints to urban park visitation: Conceptual connections and spatial attributes for traditionally well-served and underserved residents

  Connecting with nature is associated with social, physical, and emotional benefits such as stress relief, improved physical health, and lower crime. Parks and other natural areas offer spaces in which ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Constraints to urban park visitation: Conceptual connections and spatial attributes for traditionally well-served and underserved residents Author: Rushing, Jaclyn R. Connecting with nature is associated with social, physical, and emotional benefits such as stress relief, improved physical health, and lower crime. Parks and other natural areas offer spaces in which to connect with nature and reap these and other benefits (e.g., family bonding, social events, learning). Despite increasing populations of racial and ethnic minorities in the United States of America, these groups are underrepresented in many outdoor recreation activities and in visitation to many parks and other protected areas. This underrepresentation and other attributes of park visitation can be partially explained through the theoretical lens of constraints to recreation. Constraints are factors that limit participation, affect leisure preferences, and / or reduce enjoyment and satisfaction with recreation experiences. Examples of constraints include inability to afford park fees, fear of crime in parks, and lack of available leisure time. This thesis contains two standalone articles focusing on resident constraints to visiting urban parks and other natural areas in the Portland, Oregon (USA) metropolitan region. These articles examine: (a) the most common constraints to visiting these parks and natural areas, and whether these constraints vary between traditionally well-served (i.e., white majority residents) and underserved (i.e., ethnic and racial minorities) populations; (b) relationships among constraints, park visitation, and place attachment for both of these groups of residents; and (c) how constraints groups, different types of constraints, and resident characteristics (e.g., minorities) are distributed spatially across this metropolitan region. Data were obtained from mail and online questionnaires completed by two samples of residents in Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties: (a) a proportionate random sample of residents mostly targeting the following groups: African Americans / Blacks, American Indians, Asians, Hispanics / Latinos, Middle Eastern peoples, and Slavic / Eastern European peoples (i.e., probability sample); and (b) a convenience sample of Opt-In panel members (i.e., nonprobability sample). Questionnaires were completed by a total of 3,328 residents across these samples, and the data were weighted by the most recent Census based on county, age, sex (male, female), and education to be representative of adult residents in this region. Race and other demographics were consistent with the Census after weighting. Results of the first article showed that the primary constraints to visiting parks and natural areas in this urban region were being too busy to visit, limited knowledge about Metro parks, and lack of access to these places (Metro parks are managed by Metro, which is the main regional government for Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties). There were no differences in these constraints and most other constraints between traditionally underserved and well-served populations. Traditionally underserved residents, however, were significantly more constrained than the well-served residents were by race and cultural issues at parks, as well as lack of facilities and services at Metro parks. Traditionally well-served residents visited all parks and natural areas in the region significantly more often than did the underserved residents, but there were no differences in visitation to Metro parks or their favorite park. There were also no differences between the two groups in their attachment to their favorite park. Constraints and visitation explained 15% of the variance in attachment for well-served residents and 38% for underserved residents, and constraints explained 4% of the variance in visitation for well-served residents and 26% for underserved residents. The strongest negative predictor of attachment for well-served residents was Metro parks are not the best places, followed by limited access to these places and disinterest in visiting parks and natural areas. The strongest positive predictor for well-served resident attachment was frequency of visitation, followed by race and cultural issues at Metro parks, and lack of facilities and services in these areas. For underserved residents, the strongest negative predictor of attachment was costs followed by Metro parks are not the best places and limited knowledge about these places. Positive predictors of attachment for these residents included frequency of visitation and lack of facilities and services at Metro parks. The only predictor of visitation to their favorite park for well-served residents was fear of visiting other areas (positive relationship), whereas visitation for underserved residents was negatively associated with limited access to Metro parks and positively associated with costs of visiting other areas. The second article used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and hot spot analysis of the survey data to determine any spatial patterns in constraints groups, different types of constraints, and resident characteristics (e.g., minorities). Results revealed two major trends: (a) in the northeast area of the region, there is a clustering of minority residents overlapping with the most constrained hot spots and these residents were most affected by constraints associated with health and lack of recreation partners; and (b) residents in the southwest area of the region were most affected by constraints associated with limited knowledge and access to parks. Specific implications of these results for both management and research are discussed in this thesis. In general, however, these results may inform local agency objectives associated with reaching and engaging various populations, including ethnic and racial minorities. These findings also contribute to the literature by exploring relationships among constraints, park visitation, and attachment between traditionally well-served and underserved populations, and also by applying a GIS analysis of survey data to understand spatial aspects of constraints for each of these populations. Title: Constraints to urban park visitation: Conceptual connections and spatial attributes for traditionally well-served and underserved residents Author: Rushing, Jaclyn R. Connecting with nature is associated with social, physical, and emotional benefits such as stress relief, improved physical health, and lower crime. Parks and other natural areas offer spaces in which to connect with nature and reap these and other benefits (e.g., family bonding, social events, learning). Despite increasing populations of racial and ethnic minorities in the United States of America, these groups are underrepresented in many outdoor recreation activities and in visitation to many parks and other protected areas. This underrepresentation and other attributes of park visitation can be partially explained through the theoretical lens of constraints to recreation. Constraints are factors that limit participation, affect leisure preferences, and / or reduce enjoyment and satisfaction with recreation experiences. Examples of constraints include inability to afford park fees, fear of crime in parks, and lack of available leisure time. This thesis contains two standalone articles focusing on resident constraints to visiting urban parks and other natural areas in the Portland, Oregon (USA) metropolitan region. These articles examine: (a) the most common constraints to visiting these parks and natural areas, and whether these constraints vary between traditionally well-served (i.e., white majority residents) and underserved (i.e., ethnic and racial minorities) populations; (b) relationships among constraints, park visitation, and place attachment for both of these groups of residents; and (c) how constraints groups, different types of constraints, and resident characteristics (e.g., minorities) are distributed spatially across this metropolitan region. Data were obtained from mail and online questionnaires completed by two samples of residents in Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties: (a) a proportionate random sample of residents mostly targeting the following groups: African Americans / Blacks, American Indians, Asians, Hispanics / Latinos, Middle Eastern peoples, and Slavic / Eastern European peoples (i.e., probability sample); and (b) a convenience sample of Opt-In panel members (i.e., nonprobability sample). Questionnaires were completed by a total of 3,328 residents across these samples, and the data were weighted by the most recent Census based on county, age, sex (male, female), and education to be representative of adult residents in this region. Race and other demographics were consistent with the Census after weighting. Results of the first article showed that the primary constraints to visiting parks and natural areas in this urban region were being too busy to visit, limited knowledge about Metro parks, and lack of access to these places (Metro parks are managed by Metro, which is the main regional government for Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties). There were no differences in these constraints and most other constraints between traditionally underserved and well-served populations. Traditionally underserved residents, however, were significantly more constrained than the well-served residents were by race and cultural issues at parks, as well as lack of facilities and services at Metro parks. Traditionally well-served residents visited all parks and natural areas in the region significantly more often than did the underserved residents, but there were no differences in visitation to Metro parks or their favorite park. There were also no differences between the two groups in their attachment to their favorite park. Constraints and visitation explained 15% of the variance in attachment for well-served residents and 38% for underserved residents, and constraints explained 4% of the variance in visitation for well-served residents and 26% for underserved residents. The strongest negative predictor of attachment for well-served residents was Metro parks are not the best places, followed by limited access to these places and disinterest in visiting parks and natural areas. The strongest positive predictor for well-served resident attachment was frequency of visitation, followed by race and cultural issues at Metro parks, and lack of facilities and services in these areas. For underserved residents, the strongest negative predictor of attachment was costs followed by Metro parks are not the best places and limited knowledge about these places. Positive predictors of attachment for these residents included frequency of visitation and lack of facilities and services at Metro parks. The only predictor of visitation to their favorite park for well-served residents was fear of visiting other areas (positive relationship), whereas visitation for underserved residents was negatively associated with limited access to Metro parks and positively associated with costs of visiting other areas. The second article used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and hot spot analysis of the survey data to determine any spatial patterns in constraints groups, different types of constraints, and resident characteristics (e.g., minorities). Results revealed two major trends: (a) in the northeast area of the region, there is a clustering of minority residents overlapping with the most constrained hot spots and these residents were most affected by constraints associated with health and lack of recreation partners; and (b) residents in the southwest area of the region were most affected by constraints associated with limited knowledge and access to parks. Specific implications of these results for both management and research are discussed in this thesis. In general, however, these results may inform local agency objectives associated with reaching and engaging various populations, including ethnic and racial minorities. These findings also contribute to the literature by exploring relationships among constraints, park visitation, and attachment between traditionally well-served and underserved populations, and also by applying a GIS analysis of survey data to understand spatial aspects of constraints for each of these populations. Close

• 1458. [Article] Treatment and Characterization of Valvular Pulmonic Stenosis and Coronary Artery Anatomy in English Bulldogs and French Bulldogs

  Pulmonic stenosis (PS) is one of the most commonly encountered congenital cardiac defects in canine patients. English bulldogs have an increased risk of PS as compared to other dog breeds and have a higher ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Treatment and Characterization of Valvular Pulmonic Stenosis and Coronary Artery Anatomy in English Bulldogs and French Bulldogs Author: Smith, Courtney C. (Courtney Catherine) Pulmonic stenosis (PS) is one of the most commonly encountered congenital cardiac defects in canine patients. English bulldogs have an increased risk of PS as compared to other dog breeds and have a higher reported prevalence of type II/type B/dysplastic pulmonic valve morphology. It has been shown that the dysplastic PS morphology may carry a more guarded prognosis and be less amenable to percutaneous balloon valvuloplasty (BV) procedures in canine and human patients. Due to the potentially decreased success of BV procedures in canine patients with a more dysplastic valvular phenotype, the ideal treatment for these cases may not be fully determined based on the currently published literature. There are breed predispositions observed with PS and French bulldogs may be more frequently affected with PS. Evaluation and characterization of the specific PS morphology observed in French bulldogs is lacking in veterinary medicine. Case reports have provided evidence that English bulldogs and boxer dogs have an increased risk for anomalous coronary artery anatomy that may cause or complicate PS treatment. There is a possible association with coronary artery anomalies in the French bulldog breed, although information on prevalence in this breed is lacking in the currently available veterinary literature. The primary aim of this research study was to assess the pulmonic valve morphology and prevalence of coronary artery aberrancy in English and French bulldogs with severe PS (trans- pulmonic valve pressure gradient >80mmHg based on Doppler echocardiography) using echocardiography, angiography, and computed tomography (CT) imaging modalities. A secondary study aim was to evaluate demographic data for all English and French bulldogs with PS (mild, moderate, or severe) that presented to the Oregon State University Veterinary Teaching Hospital as compared to the population of non- bulldog breeds diagnosed with PS (mild, moderate, or severe) in the same time frame. These populations were further analyzed to specifically evaluate the bulldog and non- bulldog breeds with severe PS that underwent BV procedures. Data collection and evaluation included population characteristics, electrocardiography, echocardiography, and surgical records. A third study aim was to investigate BV procedural success and survival data between bulldog and non-bulldog breeds undergoing BV for severe PS. Medical records were reviewed for French and English bulldogs presented to Oregon State University Veterinary Teaching Hospital (OSU VTH) for heart murmur evaluation or imaging prior to BV. Dogs were included if they had severe PS (pressure gradient >80 mmHg estimated via Doppler echocardiography) and confirmation of their coronary artery anatomy by either left-sided angiography or CT imaging. Echocardiographic, angiographic, and CT images were reviewed. The pulmonic annulus (PA), aortic annulus (Ao), PA:Ao and Ao:PA ratios, valvular anatomy, and coronary anatomy were assessed on each imaging modality by three observers (CS, KS, DDS) and averaged. The echocardiographic images were reviewed and measurements of right ventricular (RV) systolic function, chamber dimensions, and wall thickness were performed by 1 reviewer (CS). All non-bulldog breeds that were diagnosed with severe PS were also identified and echocardiographic data was assessed in the group that underwent BV procedures. Owners, referring veterinarians, or both were contacted to obtain outcome and survival information on all included patients to determine if they were alive/dead, date and cause of death if available, and if clinical signs of cardiac disease were observed. Data were tested for normality using the D’Agostino & Pearson omnibus normality test. Continuous variables were compared by Mann-Whitney U tests, ANOVA, or unpaired t-tests as indicated and categorical data was compared using a Fisher’s exact test. Survival times were calculated from the date of birth reported in the medical records to the date of natural death or euthanasia within the observational study period. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare cardiac and all-cause mortality. The results of this study show that in the population of French and English bulldogs that presented to the OSU VTH, there was an increased prevalence of markedly dysplastic pulmonic valve morphology with the majority of cases displaying mild annular hypoplasia, which was different than the non-BD population. None of the French bulldogs (0/13) that underwent definitive coronary artery imaging had evidence of coronary artery anomalies while 6/8 English Bulldogs were definitively diagnosed with an R2A coronary artery anomaly. Within the group of dogs diagnosed with an R2A coronary artery anomaly, BV procedures were not performed in any of the patients and they had a poor mean long-term prognosis of 26 months. Indices of RV systolic function were decreased in the BD breeds in comparison to the non-BD breeds. There were significant differences observed in procedural success at the 1-month post-BV echocardiographic recheck and long-term follow up with the BD group having lower BV success than the non-BD group. The results of this study indicate that BV performed on French and English bulldogs has a lower success rate then non-bulldog breeds. This lower success rate may be related to difference in valve morphology identified on echocardiographic, CT, and angiographic images. In addition, bulldogs appear to have a shorter survival time compared to non-bulldog breeds and this may be related to the differences in RV systolic function identified by echocardiography. Lastly, French bulldogs did not have the same high prevalence of anomalous coronary artery anatomy as English bulldogs in the population of dogs evaluated at the OSU VTH. Title: Treatment and Characterization of Valvular Pulmonic Stenosis and Coronary Artery Anatomy in English Bulldogs and French Bulldogs Author: Smith, Courtney C. (Courtney Catherine) Pulmonic stenosis (PS) is one of the most commonly encountered congenital cardiac defects in canine patients. English bulldogs have an increased risk of PS as compared to other dog breeds and have a higher reported prevalence of type II/type B/dysplastic pulmonic valve morphology. It has been shown that the dysplastic PS morphology may carry a more guarded prognosis and be less amenable to percutaneous balloon valvuloplasty (BV) procedures in canine and human patients. Due to the potentially decreased success of BV procedures in canine patients with a more dysplastic valvular phenotype, the ideal treatment for these cases may not be fully determined based on the currently published literature. There are breed predispositions observed with PS and French bulldogs may be more frequently affected with PS. Evaluation and characterization of the specific PS morphology observed in French bulldogs is lacking in veterinary medicine. Case reports have provided evidence that English bulldogs and boxer dogs have an increased risk for anomalous coronary artery anatomy that may cause or complicate PS treatment. There is a possible association with coronary artery anomalies in the French bulldog breed, although information on prevalence in this breed is lacking in the currently available veterinary literature. The primary aim of this research study was to assess the pulmonic valve morphology and prevalence of coronary artery aberrancy in English and French bulldogs with severe PS (trans- pulmonic valve pressure gradient >80mmHg based on Doppler echocardiography) using echocardiography, angiography, and computed tomography (CT) imaging modalities. A secondary study aim was to evaluate demographic data for all English and French bulldogs with PS (mild, moderate, or severe) that presented to the Oregon State University Veterinary Teaching Hospital as compared to the population of non- bulldog breeds diagnosed with PS (mild, moderate, or severe) in the same time frame. These populations were further analyzed to specifically evaluate the bulldog and non- bulldog breeds with severe PS that underwent BV procedures. Data collection and evaluation included population characteristics, electrocardiography, echocardiography, and surgical records. A third study aim was to investigate BV procedural success and survival data between bulldog and non-bulldog breeds undergoing BV for severe PS. Medical records were reviewed for French and English bulldogs presented to Oregon State University Veterinary Teaching Hospital (OSU VTH) for heart murmur evaluation or imaging prior to BV. Dogs were included if they had severe PS (pressure gradient >80 mmHg estimated via Doppler echocardiography) and confirmation of their coronary artery anatomy by either left-sided angiography or CT imaging. Echocardiographic, angiographic, and CT images were reviewed. The pulmonic annulus (PA), aortic annulus (Ao), PA:Ao and Ao:PA ratios, valvular anatomy, and coronary anatomy were assessed on each imaging modality by three observers (CS, KS, DDS) and averaged. The echocardiographic images were reviewed and measurements of right ventricular (RV) systolic function, chamber dimensions, and wall thickness were performed by 1 reviewer (CS). All non-bulldog breeds that were diagnosed with severe PS were also identified and echocardiographic data was assessed in the group that underwent BV procedures. Owners, referring veterinarians, or both were contacted to obtain outcome and survival information on all included patients to determine if they were alive/dead, date and cause of death if available, and if clinical signs of cardiac disease were observed. Data were tested for normality using the D’Agostino & Pearson omnibus normality test. Continuous variables were compared by Mann-Whitney U tests, ANOVA, or unpaired t-tests as indicated and categorical data was compared using a Fisher’s exact test. Survival times were calculated from the date of birth reported in the medical records to the date of natural death or euthanasia within the observational study period. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare cardiac and all-cause mortality. The results of this study show that in the population of French and English bulldogs that presented to the OSU VTH, there was an increased prevalence of markedly dysplastic pulmonic valve morphology with the majority of cases displaying mild annular hypoplasia, which was different than the non-BD population. None of the French bulldogs (0/13) that underwent definitive coronary artery imaging had evidence of coronary artery anomalies while 6/8 English Bulldogs were definitively diagnosed with an R2A coronary artery anomaly. Within the group of dogs diagnosed with an R2A coronary artery anomaly, BV procedures were not performed in any of the patients and they had a poor mean long-term prognosis of 26 months. Indices of RV systolic function were decreased in the BD breeds in comparison to the non-BD breeds. There were significant differences observed in procedural success at the 1-month post-BV echocardiographic recheck and long-term follow up with the BD group having lower BV success than the non-BD group. The results of this study indicate that BV performed on French and English bulldogs has a lower success rate then non-bulldog breeds. This lower success rate may be related to difference in valve morphology identified on echocardiographic, CT, and angiographic images. In addition, bulldogs appear to have a shorter survival time compared to non-bulldog breeds and this may be related to the differences in RV systolic function identified by echocardiography. Lastly, French bulldogs did not have the same high prevalence of anomalous coronary artery anatomy as English bulldogs in the population of dogs evaluated at the OSU VTH. Close

• 1459. [Article] How Do Population Growth, Land-use Regulations, and Precipitation Patterns Affect Water Use? A Fine-scale Empirical Analysis of Landscape Change

  A growing body of literature exists on how human population growth and changes in climatic factors influence the availability of water (Elliot et al. 2014, Prudhomme et al. 2014). These studies typically ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: How Do Population Growth, Land-use Regulations, and Precipitation Patterns Affect Water Use? A Fine-scale Empirical Analysis of Landscape Change Author: Bigelow, Daniel P. A growing body of literature exists on how human population growth and changes in climatic factors influence the availability of water (Elliot et al. 2014, Prudhomme et al. 2014). These studies typically conclude that climate change is expected to have negative consequences on water availability, an effect that is magnified or exceeded by continued growth in human populations (Vorosmarty et al. 2000, Mcdonald et al. 2010). However, there are several deficiencies associated with how these existing studies from the natural science literature analyze the interconnectedness of the human-water-climate system. For one, the scale of the models that are employed often precludes researchers from accounting for the location-specific nature of how water is used. Failing to recognize the inherently spatial nature of water use compounds the inability of researchers to analyze the role of other spatially-dependent behavioral processes that are associated with population growth, and hence water use. The same can be said for the treatment of climate change in the existing literature. If the effects of climate change on water use are transmitted through intermediate human behavioral processes, ignoring the indirect nature of the relationship will not accurately convey the true localized outcomes that may be realized. Moreover, there may be policies in place that govern how certain spatial processes operate, which again cannot be accounted for without recognition of the fine-scale spatial aspects of water use. In this dissertation, I analyze the effects of population growth, land-use regulations, and climate change on localized consumptive water use through the lens of land-use change, an inherently spatial process. Intuitively, as a city's population expands and more land is developed at its extensive margin, the total amount of water consumed by the residential sector will correspondingly increase. However, I show that the net effect of land development on the total amount of water used by the agricultural and residential sectors combined depends primarily on three factors: (1) the amount and location of rainfed versus irrigated agricultural land within the vicinity of the city, (2) the rate of population growth occurring within the city, and (3) the spatial pattern associated with where new land development occurs. Somewhat counterintuitively, what I find is that under certain conditions more sprawl-like development patterns are associated with lower total water use. This result stems from the fact that low-density development patterns tend to be associated with increased conversion of irrigated agricultural land. Given the fact that irrigated agricultural land requires relatively more intensive water use when compared with urban land, lower density urbanization patterns can result in a reduction in total water use if the city expands into lands that are predominantly used for irrigated agriculture. My empirical approach combines fine-scale econometric and simulation methods in order to accommodate the spatial heterogeneity associated with land and water use in my study area, Oregon's Willamette Valley. In Chapter 3, I estimate a series of parcellevel hedonic property value models for land in developed, agricultural, and forest uses using a novel panel data set on land values for our study area, Oregon's Willamette Valley. Although the hedonic models are not an end in themselves, several policy applications are examined vis-a-vis the estimated property value relationships for each land use. First, for developed lands, I explore the effects of Oregon's comprehensive land-use plan, with specific focus on urban growth boundary designation, through the use of a variety of panel data estimators. Second, I analyze the relationship between agricultural land values and climatic influences, with particular emphasis on the interactions between the holding of irrigation rights and the effect of growing-season precipitation. The third application of the hedonic models pertains to how forest land values are influenced by transportation costs, represented by distance to the nearest processing mill, which change over time due to the large number of mill closures during my study period, partly in response to the old-growth harvest restrictions imposed by the Northwest Forest Plan. In Chapter 4, the estimated hedonic relationships are used to predict the values associated with land in selected and unselected uses in my land-use change data set, which comes from the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends (LCT) project. In a similar fashion to Bockstael (1996), I then use the land value predictions as explanatory variables in a set of discrete-choice urbanization models. In generating the predicted land values with the estimated hedonic relationships, I confront the sample selection issue inherent in applying the developed land hedonic model to lands that start in undeveloped uses using econometric methods suitable for panel data. I also compare the results generated with the coupled hedonic-urbanization approach with those from a reducedform model, which is more commonly found throughout the modern land economics literature. Additionally, using a Monte Carlo analysis, I illustrate the efficiency of the two-stage approach, and demonstrate how this property depends of the frequency of observed land development decisions. With my fully estimated econometric framework, I construct a spatially-explicit landscape simulation model in Chapter 5, which is used to analyze total water use over the period 2000-2070. The landscape simulations feature exogenous growth in population and income as the predominant drivers of urban land value dynamics. Agricultural water use is determined by spatial data on the location of irrigation water rights administered through the prior appropriation doctrine. Citywide urban demands are determined by the size of the city, demographic characteristics, water prices, pricing structure, and the demand for outdoor water use, which is influenced by precipitation. To generate my main results, I analyze three sets of scenarios in which I alter: (1) the area upon which land development is possible and (2) the city-specific population growth trajectory, and (3) the opportunity cost of land development for agricultural landowners. The first scenario set relates to the stringency of land-use regulations, which directly affects both the density of population growth and the urban composition of the city. Population growth, which is featured in the second set of scenarios, has several competing influences on total water use, among which are a direct influence on citywide residential water demand, and also the indirect effects that come about through the incentives to develop individual land parcels. In my third set of scenarios, I hold the land-use regulatory environment constant and impose permanent changes in precipitation patterns. Growing season precipitation indirectly influences total water use through its direct effect on the opportunity cost of land development for the owners of rainfed agricultural land. A novel feature of the simulation framework is that population density, which enters the developed land hedonic function, is treated as endogenous, as it is a function of development patterns and the permitted levels of development under different urban containment policies. Additionally, the simulation design is stochastic in that I treat land development decisions in a probabilistic fashion, facilitating an analysis of the distribution of results, including my main results for total water use, in each of the simulated scenarios. My results indicate that under situations that stimulate increased land development, the distribution of total water use is characterized by a lower mean if there is a sufficient amount of irrigated agricultural land in the vicinity of the city boundary, and if population growth is not prohibitively high. Further, the variance of total water use is decreasing in population density, as more sprawl-like development outcomes have a relatively wider array of potential spatial patterns associated with new land development. In the broadest sense, my dissertation highlights the interplay between population growth, climate change, land-use regulations, and the spatial patterns associated with both non-urban water endowments and new land development. The intermediate link that land-use change provides between climate change and population growth and water use has yet to be acknowledged and given proper treatment in the existing literature. Moreover, the connection between land-use change and water use emphasizes the inherent spatial heterogeneity in how water is used. Given the ubiquity of policies worldwide that impose location-specific constraints on water use, my analysis suggests that spatial considerations should be taken into account in subsequent studies that aim to analyze localized patterns of water use and how they may evolve in the future. Title: How Do Population Growth, Land-use Regulations, and Precipitation Patterns Affect Water Use? A Fine-scale Empirical Analysis of Landscape Change Author: Bigelow, Daniel P. A growing body of literature exists on how human population growth and changes in climatic factors influence the availability of water (Elliot et al. 2014, Prudhomme et al. 2014). These studies typically conclude that climate change is expected to have negative consequences on water availability, an effect that is magnified or exceeded by continued growth in human populations (Vorosmarty et al. 2000, Mcdonald et al. 2010). However, there are several deficiencies associated with how these existing studies from the natural science literature analyze the interconnectedness of the human-water-climate system. For one, the scale of the models that are employed often precludes researchers from accounting for the location-specific nature of how water is used. Failing to recognize the inherently spatial nature of water use compounds the inability of researchers to analyze the role of other spatially-dependent behavioral processes that are associated with population growth, and hence water use. The same can be said for the treatment of climate change in the existing literature. If the effects of climate change on water use are transmitted through intermediate human behavioral processes, ignoring the indirect nature of the relationship will not accurately convey the true localized outcomes that may be realized. Moreover, there may be policies in place that govern how certain spatial processes operate, which again cannot be accounted for without recognition of the fine-scale spatial aspects of water use. In this dissertation, I analyze the effects of population growth, land-use regulations, and climate change on localized consumptive water use through the lens of land-use change, an inherently spatial process. Intuitively, as a city's population expands and more land is developed at its extensive margin, the total amount of water consumed by the residential sector will correspondingly increase. However, I show that the net effect of land development on the total amount of water used by the agricultural and residential sectors combined depends primarily on three factors: (1) the amount and location of rainfed versus irrigated agricultural land within the vicinity of the city, (2) the rate of population growth occurring within the city, and (3) the spatial pattern associated with where new land development occurs. Somewhat counterintuitively, what I find is that under certain conditions more sprawl-like development patterns are associated with lower total water use. This result stems from the fact that low-density development patterns tend to be associated with increased conversion of irrigated agricultural land. Given the fact that irrigated agricultural land requires relatively more intensive water use when compared with urban land, lower density urbanization patterns can result in a reduction in total water use if the city expands into lands that are predominantly used for irrigated agriculture. My empirical approach combines fine-scale econometric and simulation methods in order to accommodate the spatial heterogeneity associated with land and water use in my study area, Oregon's Willamette Valley. In Chapter 3, I estimate a series of parcellevel hedonic property value models for land in developed, agricultural, and forest uses using a novel panel data set on land values for our study area, Oregon's Willamette Valley. Although the hedonic models are not an end in themselves, several policy applications are examined vis-a-vis the estimated property value relationships for each land use. First, for developed lands, I explore the effects of Oregon's comprehensive land-use plan, with specific focus on urban growth boundary designation, through the use of a variety of panel data estimators. Second, I analyze the relationship between agricultural land values and climatic influences, with particular emphasis on the interactions between the holding of irrigation rights and the effect of growing-season precipitation. The third application of the hedonic models pertains to how forest land values are influenced by transportation costs, represented by distance to the nearest processing mill, which change over time due to the large number of mill closures during my study period, partly in response to the old-growth harvest restrictions imposed by the Northwest Forest Plan. In Chapter 4, the estimated hedonic relationships are used to predict the values associated with land in selected and unselected uses in my land-use change data set, which comes from the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends (LCT) project. In a similar fashion to Bockstael (1996), I then use the land value predictions as explanatory variables in a set of discrete-choice urbanization models. In generating the predicted land values with the estimated hedonic relationships, I confront the sample selection issue inherent in applying the developed land hedonic model to lands that start in undeveloped uses using econometric methods suitable for panel data. I also compare the results generated with the coupled hedonic-urbanization approach with those from a reducedform model, which is more commonly found throughout the modern land economics literature. Additionally, using a Monte Carlo analysis, I illustrate the efficiency of the two-stage approach, and demonstrate how this property depends of the frequency of observed land development decisions. With my fully estimated econometric framework, I construct a spatially-explicit landscape simulation model in Chapter 5, which is used to analyze total water use over the period 2000-2070. The landscape simulations feature exogenous growth in population and income as the predominant drivers of urban land value dynamics. Agricultural water use is determined by spatial data on the location of irrigation water rights administered through the prior appropriation doctrine. Citywide urban demands are determined by the size of the city, demographic characteristics, water prices, pricing structure, and the demand for outdoor water use, which is influenced by precipitation. To generate my main results, I analyze three sets of scenarios in which I alter: (1) the area upon which land development is possible and (2) the city-specific population growth trajectory, and (3) the opportunity cost of land development for agricultural landowners. The first scenario set relates to the stringency of land-use regulations, which directly affects both the density of population growth and the urban composition of the city. Population growth, which is featured in the second set of scenarios, has several competing influences on total water use, among which are a direct influence on citywide residential water demand, and also the indirect effects that come about through the incentives to develop individual land parcels. In my third set of scenarios, I hold the land-use regulatory environment constant and impose permanent changes in precipitation patterns. Growing season precipitation indirectly influences total water use through its direct effect on the opportunity cost of land development for the owners of rainfed agricultural land. A novel feature of the simulation framework is that population density, which enters the developed land hedonic function, is treated as endogenous, as it is a function of development patterns and the permitted levels of development under different urban containment policies. Additionally, the simulation design is stochastic in that I treat land development decisions in a probabilistic fashion, facilitating an analysis of the distribution of results, including my main results for total water use, in each of the simulated scenarios. My results indicate that under situations that stimulate increased land development, the distribution of total water use is characterized by a lower mean if there is a sufficient amount of irrigated agricultural land in the vicinity of the city boundary, and if population growth is not prohibitively high. Further, the variance of total water use is decreasing in population density, as more sprawl-like development outcomes have a relatively wider array of potential spatial patterns associated with new land development. In the broadest sense, my dissertation highlights the interplay between population growth, climate change, land-use regulations, and the spatial patterns associated with both non-urban water endowments and new land development. The intermediate link that land-use change provides between climate change and population growth and water use has yet to be acknowledged and given proper treatment in the existing literature. Moreover, the connection between land-use change and water use emphasizes the inherent spatial heterogeneity in how water is used. Given the ubiquity of policies worldwide that impose location-specific constraints on water use, my analysis suggests that spatial considerations should be taken into account in subsequent studies that aim to analyze localized patterns of water use and how they may evolve in the future. Close

• 1460. [Article] Linking Moral Obligations, Assumption-based Research, and Structured Decision Making to Inform Bull Trout Recovery

  More than 1500 species of plants and animals in the United States are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The U.S. Departments of Interior and Commerce are required, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Linking Moral Obligations, Assumption-based Research, and Structured Decision Making to Inform Bull Trout Recovery Author: Brignon, William R. More than 1500 species of plants and animals in the United States are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The U.S. Departments of Interior and Commerce are required, under Section 4(f)(1) of the ESA, to develop recovery plans for ESA-listed species under the respective agency jurisdictions. However, developing recovery plans that are both scientifically defensible and consistent with a diversity of stakeholder (e.g., states, tribes, private landowners) values is often difficult. Structured decision making is a framework that resource managers can use to integrate diverse, and often conflicting, stakeholder value systems into species recovery planning. Within this framework difficult decisions are deconstructed into the three basic components: 1) explicit, quantifiable objectives that represent stakeholder values; 2) mathematical models used to predict the effect of management decisions on the outcome of objectives; and 3) management alternatives or actions. The goal of my dissertation was to acknowledge and understand the uncertainty of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus reintroduction strategies and provide an ethical and scientific foundation for an enduring and biologically sound conservation program. My objectives were to (1) describe how incorporating stakeholder values into scientifically defensible recovery planning using structured decision making will fulfill legal and moral obligations to recover species, (2) determine how captive rearing environments affect the development and survival behaviors of bull trout and how these effects may influence the efficacy and ultimate success of reintroduction and recovery programs, and (3) use structured decision making to evaluate the tradeoffs of alternative bull trout reintroduction decisions. I developed this research project to be multifaceted by incorporating components of philosophy (Chapter 2), assumption-based research (Chapter 3), and statistical modeling (Chapter 4). The collective results my research should serve as an example of how to incorporate diverse stakeholder value systems, assumption-based research, and evaluations of alternative management actions into species recovery and reintroduction decisions. This approach promotes transparency and consensus in decision making. Recognizing these benefits, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has adopted a similar approach to manage species and their habitats into the future (i.e., Strategic Habitat Conservation). The impediments to species recovery are numerous. Some of the biggest impediments to recovery planning are conflicting values and interests among stakeholders. I believe that these types of conflicts and related issues are best addressed by integrating the diverse values and interests of stakeholders with the best scientific information available, and doing so in a clear and transparent manner that will broaden acceptance for enduring recovery planning. Science, in and of itself, cannot dictate which management decisions ought to be made; it purely offers a biological and physical basis for estimating the outcomes of decisions. An understanding of humanities is needed to provide context for the myriad of societal obligations. Three moral philosophies; consequentialism, deontology, and virtue theory, suggest that structured decision making is a justified method that can guide natural resource decisions in the future, and will honor legal and moral obligations to recover ESA listed species and their habitats. The ability to recover and delist species in the future depends on an increased understanding of natural ecosystems through scientific discovery and the ability to incorporate stakeholder values into the recovery planning process in a manner that is objective, systematic, and transparent. Animals reared in barren captive environments exhibit different development and behaviors than wild counterparts. Hence, the captive phenotypes may influence the success of reintroduction and recovery programs for threatened and endangered species. I collected wild bull trout embryos from the Metolius River Basin, Oregon and reared them in differing environments to better understand how captivity affects the bull trout phenotype to aide in the development of informed recovery strategies for the species. I compared the development of the brain and eye lens, and boldness and prey acquisition behaviors of bull trout reared in conventional barren and more structurally complex captive environments with that of wild fish. I found that wild bull trout exhibited a greater level of boldness and prey acquisition ability, followed by captive reared bull trout from complex habitats, and finally fish reared in conventional captive environments. In addition, the eye lens of conventionally reared bull trout was larger than complex reared captive fish or that of wild fish. Unexpectedly, I detected wild fish had a smaller relative cerebellum than either captive reared treatment. My results add to the existing literature that suggests rearing fish in more complex captive environments can create a more wild-like phenotype than conventional rearing practices. Rearing fish in captivity is an important tool that can be used to accomplish a suite of management objectives including providing fish for research and reintroduction programs, or in worst case scenarios maintaining refuge populations. An understanding of the effects of captivity on the development and behavior of bull trout is important if life in captivity is the only option to ensure existence of some populations, and can inform rearing and reintroduction programs through prediction of the performance of released individuals. Stakeholders can be divided on what is the optimal reintroduction strategy to use (i.e., translocation, captive rearing, or artificial production) or how many individuals to collect for a program. These decisions are further complicated by a limited understanding of how captivity affects an animal’s phenotype and how well animals will survive upon release. Structured decision making allows natural resource decisions to be made in spite of uncertainty by linking reintroduction goals with alternative management actions through predictive models of ecological processes. Predictive models represent competing hypothesis that describe the belief of the structure and function of the ecological system and can be updated as new information is generated by monitoring and research (i.e., adaptive management). I developed a structured decision model to evaluate the tradeoffs between six bull trout reintroduction alternatives with the goal of maximizing the number of adults in the recipient population, up to 300 individuals, without reducing the donor population to an unacceptable state. The six alternative decisions that were evaluated are to 1) do-nothing, 2) translocate 1000 juveniles, 3) translocate 60 adults, 4) translocate 1000 juveniles and 40 adults, 5) captive rear 20,000 wild embryos, or 6) artificial production of 60 wild adults. The model was parameterized with published demographic parameters where available and consists of three stage-based Leslie matrix models that represent the donor, captive, and recipient populations. A state dependent policy was created that identifies the optimal decision over a combination of possible donor and recipient adult abundance states. One-way sensitivity analysis suggests that the value of the decision outcome was most influenced by survival parameters that resulted in increased adult abundance in the recipient population, and increased juvenile survival in the donor and recipient populations. The decision outcome was also sensitive to small and large adult fecundity rates and sex ratio. The outcome was least sensitive to survival parameters associated with the captive population, a survival reduction of naive reintroduced individuals, and juvenile carrying capacity of the reintroduced population. Two-way sensitivity analysis with all combinations of model parameters identified interactions that influence the decision outcome and identity. For example, a comparison of the juvenile density dependent parameters for the donor population indicated that when above a maximum egg survival of 0.14, the juvenile carrying capacity had a greater influence on the expected outcome of the decision. When juvenile carrying capacity in the donor population was less than ~5500 individuals, the optimal strategy was to do nothing, which most likely avoided an unacceptable reduction in the donor population. Whereas, translocating adults was the optimal decision when both density dependent parameters (i.e., juvenile carrying capacity, maximum egg survival) were in the upper end of their range and resulted in a decision outcome of greater than 60 adults in the recipient population. The optimal decision was to captive rear embryos when there was minimal effect of captive rearing and translocation on the survival of released fish. Whereas, translocating adults was the optimal decision when the probability of survival was less than 0.75 for captive reared fish as compared to translocated fish. As the survival penalty for captive reared fish neared 1.00, which indicated little to no effects of captivity on a fish’s survival after release, artificial production became the optimal decision regardless of the effects of a translocation on post-release survival. This model and sensitivity analyses can serve as the foundation for formal adaptive management and improved effectiveness, efficiency, and transparency of bull trout reintroduction decisions. Ongoing bull trout reintroductions and research will continue to lessen uncertainty and new information can be incorporated into decision models to guide future reintroduction decisions and maximize the benefit from limited resources available for bull trout recovery. Title: Linking Moral Obligations, Assumption-based Research, and Structured Decision Making to Inform Bull Trout Recovery Author: Brignon, William R. More than 1500 species of plants and animals in the United States are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The U.S. Departments of Interior and Commerce are required, under Section 4(f)(1) of the ESA, to develop recovery plans for ESA-listed species under the respective agency jurisdictions. However, developing recovery plans that are both scientifically defensible and consistent with a diversity of stakeholder (e.g., states, tribes, private landowners) values is often difficult. Structured decision making is a framework that resource managers can use to integrate diverse, and often conflicting, stakeholder value systems into species recovery planning. Within this framework difficult decisions are deconstructed into the three basic components: 1) explicit, quantifiable objectives that represent stakeholder values; 2) mathematical models used to predict the effect of management decisions on the outcome of objectives; and 3) management alternatives or actions. The goal of my dissertation was to acknowledge and understand the uncertainty of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus reintroduction strategies and provide an ethical and scientific foundation for an enduring and biologically sound conservation program. My objectives were to (1) describe how incorporating stakeholder values into scientifically defensible recovery planning using structured decision making will fulfill legal and moral obligations to recover species, (2) determine how captive rearing environments affect the development and survival behaviors of bull trout and how these effects may influence the efficacy and ultimate success of reintroduction and recovery programs, and (3) use structured decision making to evaluate the tradeoffs of alternative bull trout reintroduction decisions. I developed this research project to be multifaceted by incorporating components of philosophy (Chapter 2), assumption-based research (Chapter 3), and statistical modeling (Chapter 4). The collective results my research should serve as an example of how to incorporate diverse stakeholder value systems, assumption-based research, and evaluations of alternative management actions into species recovery and reintroduction decisions. This approach promotes transparency and consensus in decision making. Recognizing these benefits, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has adopted a similar approach to manage species and their habitats into the future (i.e., Strategic Habitat Conservation). The impediments to species recovery are numerous. Some of the biggest impediments to recovery planning are conflicting values and interests among stakeholders. I believe that these types of conflicts and related issues are best addressed by integrating the diverse values and interests of stakeholders with the best scientific information available, and doing so in a clear and transparent manner that will broaden acceptance for enduring recovery planning. Science, in and of itself, cannot dictate which management decisions ought to be made; it purely offers a biological and physical basis for estimating the outcomes of decisions. An understanding of humanities is needed to provide context for the myriad of societal obligations. Three moral philosophies; consequentialism, deontology, and virtue theory, suggest that structured decision making is a justified method that can guide natural resource decisions in the future, and will honor legal and moral obligations to recover ESA listed species and their habitats. The ability to recover and delist species in the future depends on an increased understanding of natural ecosystems through scientific discovery and the ability to incorporate stakeholder values into the recovery planning process in a manner that is objective, systematic, and transparent. Animals reared in barren captive environments exhibit different development and behaviors than wild counterparts. Hence, the captive phenotypes may influence the success of reintroduction and recovery programs for threatened and endangered species. I collected wild bull trout embryos from the Metolius River Basin, Oregon and reared them in differing environments to better understand how captivity affects the bull trout phenotype to aide in the development of informed recovery strategies for the species. I compared the development of the brain and eye lens, and boldness and prey acquisition behaviors of bull trout reared in conventional barren and more structurally complex captive environments with that of wild fish. I found that wild bull trout exhibited a greater level of boldness and prey acquisition ability, followed by captive reared bull trout from complex habitats, and finally fish reared in conventional captive environments. In addition, the eye lens of conventionally reared bull trout was larger than complex reared captive fish or that of wild fish. Unexpectedly, I detected wild fish had a smaller relative cerebellum than either captive reared treatment. My results add to the existing literature that suggests rearing fish in more complex captive environments can create a more wild-like phenotype than conventional rearing practices. Rearing fish in captivity is an important tool that can be used to accomplish a suite of management objectives including providing fish for research and reintroduction programs, or in worst case scenarios maintaining refuge populations. An understanding of the effects of captivity on the development and behavior of bull trout is important if life in captivity is the only option to ensure existence of some populations, and can inform rearing and reintroduction programs through prediction of the performance of released individuals. Stakeholders can be divided on what is the optimal reintroduction strategy to use (i.e., translocation, captive rearing, or artificial production) or how many individuals to collect for a program. These decisions are further complicated by a limited understanding of how captivity affects an animal’s phenotype and how well animals will survive upon release. Structured decision making allows natural resource decisions to be made in spite of uncertainty by linking reintroduction goals with alternative management actions through predictive models of ecological processes. Predictive models represent competing hypothesis that describe the belief of the structure and function of the ecological system and can be updated as new information is generated by monitoring and research (i.e., adaptive management). I developed a structured decision model to evaluate the tradeoffs between six bull trout reintroduction alternatives with the goal of maximizing the number of adults in the recipient population, up to 300 individuals, without reducing the donor population to an unacceptable state. The six alternative decisions that were evaluated are to 1) do-nothing, 2) translocate 1000 juveniles, 3) translocate 60 adults, 4) translocate 1000 juveniles and 40 adults, 5) captive rear 20,000 wild embryos, or 6) artificial production of 60 wild adults. The model was parameterized with published demographic parameters where available and consists of three stage-based Leslie matrix models that represent the donor, captive, and recipient populations. A state dependent policy was created that identifies the optimal decision over a combination of possible donor and recipient adult abundance states. One-way sensitivity analysis suggests that the value of the decision outcome was most influenced by survival parameters that resulted in increased adult abundance in the recipient population, and increased juvenile survival in the donor and recipient populations. The decision outcome was also sensitive to small and large adult fecundity rates and sex ratio. The outcome was least sensitive to survival parameters associated with the captive population, a survival reduction of naive reintroduced individuals, and juvenile carrying capacity of the reintroduced population. Two-way sensitivity analysis with all combinations of model parameters identified interactions that influence the decision outcome and identity. For example, a comparison of the juvenile density dependent parameters for the donor population indicated that when above a maximum egg survival of 0.14, the juvenile carrying capacity had a greater influence on the expected outcome of the decision. When juvenile carrying capacity in the donor population was less than ~5500 individuals, the optimal strategy was to do nothing, which most likely avoided an unacceptable reduction in the donor population. Whereas, translocating adults was the optimal decision when both density dependent parameters (i.e., juvenile carrying capacity, maximum egg survival) were in the upper end of their range and resulted in a decision outcome of greater than 60 adults in the recipient population. The optimal decision was to captive rear embryos when there was minimal effect of captive rearing and translocation on the survival of released fish. Whereas, translocating adults was the optimal decision when the probability of survival was less than 0.75 for captive reared fish as compared to translocated fish. As the survival penalty for captive reared fish neared 1.00, which indicated little to no effects of captivity on a fish’s survival after release, artificial production became the optimal decision regardless of the effects of a translocation on post-release survival. This model and sensitivity analyses can serve as the foundation for formal adaptive management and improved effectiveness, efficiency, and transparency of bull trout reintroduction decisions. Ongoing bull trout reintroductions and research will continue to lessen uncertainty and new information can be incorporated into decision models to guide future reintroduction decisions and maximize the benefit from limited resources available for bull trout recovery. Close