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A growing body of literature exists on how human population growth and changes in climatic factors influence the availability of water (Elliot et al. 2014, Prudhomme et al. 2014). These studies typically ...
Citation Citation
- Title:
- How Do Population Growth, Land-use Regulations, and Precipitation Patterns Affect Water Use? A Fine-scale Empirical Analysis of Landscape Change
- Author:
- Bigelow, Daniel P.
A growing body of literature exists on how human population growth and changes in climatic factors influence the availability of water (Elliot et al. 2014, Prudhomme et al. 2014). These studies typically conclude that climate change is expected to have negative consequences on water availability, an effect that is magnified or exceeded by continued growth in human populations (Vorosmarty et al. 2000, Mcdonald et al. 2010). However, there are several deficiencies associated with how these existing studies from the natural science literature analyze the interconnectedness of the human-water-climate system. For one, the scale of the models that are employed often precludes researchers from accounting for the location-specific nature of how water is used. Failing to recognize the inherently spatial nature of water use compounds the inability of researchers to analyze the role of other spatially-dependent behavioral processes that are associated with population growth, and hence water use. The same can be said for the treatment of climate change in the existing literature. If the effects of climate change on water use are transmitted through intermediate human behavioral processes, ignoring the indirect nature of the relationship will not accurately convey the true localized outcomes that may be realized. Moreover, there may be policies in place that govern how certain spatial processes operate, which again cannot be accounted for without recognition of the fine-scale spatial aspects of water use. In this dissertation, I analyze the effects of population growth, land-use regulations, and climate change on localized consumptive water use through the lens of land-use change, an inherently spatial process. Intuitively, as a city's population expands and more land is developed at its extensive margin, the total amount of water consumed by the residential sector will correspondingly increase. However, I show that the net effect of land development on the total amount of water used by the agricultural and residential sectors combined depends primarily on three factors: (1) the amount and location of rainfed versus irrigated agricultural land within the vicinity of the city, (2) the rate of population growth occurring within the city, and (3) the spatial pattern associated with where new land development occurs. Somewhat counterintuitively, what I find is that under certain conditions more sprawl-like development patterns are associated with lower total water use. This result stems from the fact that low-density development patterns tend to be associated with increased conversion of irrigated agricultural land. Given the fact that irrigated agricultural land requires relatively more intensive water use when compared with urban land, lower density urbanization patterns can result in a reduction in total water use if the city expands into lands that are predominantly used for irrigated agriculture. My empirical approach combines fine-scale econometric and simulation methods in order to accommodate the spatial heterogeneity associated with land and water use in my study area, Oregon's Willamette Valley. In Chapter 3, I estimate a series of parcellevel hedonic property value models for land in developed, agricultural, and forest uses using a novel panel data set on land values for our study area, Oregon's Willamette Valley. Although the hedonic models are not an end in themselves, several policy applications are examined vis-a-vis the estimated property value relationships for each land use. First, for developed lands, I explore the effects of Oregon's comprehensive land-use plan, with specific focus on urban growth boundary designation, through the use of a variety of panel data estimators. Second, I analyze the relationship between agricultural land values and climatic influences, with particular emphasis on the interactions between the holding of irrigation rights and the effect of growing-season precipitation. The third application of the hedonic models pertains to how forest land values are influenced by transportation costs, represented by distance to the nearest processing mill, which change over time due to the large number of mill closures during my study period, partly in response to the old-growth harvest restrictions imposed by the Northwest Forest Plan. In Chapter 4, the estimated hedonic relationships are used to predict the values associated with land in selected and unselected uses in my land-use change data set, which comes from the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends (LCT) project. In a similar fashion to Bockstael (1996), I then use the land value predictions as explanatory variables in a set of discrete-choice urbanization models. In generating the predicted land values with the estimated hedonic relationships, I confront the sample selection issue inherent in applying the developed land hedonic model to lands that start in undeveloped uses using econometric methods suitable for panel data. I also compare the results generated with the coupled hedonic-urbanization approach with those from a reducedform model, which is more commonly found throughout the modern land economics literature. Additionally, using a Monte Carlo analysis, I illustrate the efficiency of the two-stage approach, and demonstrate how this property depends of the frequency of observed land development decisions. With my fully estimated econometric framework, I construct a spatially-explicit landscape simulation model in Chapter 5, which is used to analyze total water use over the period 2000-2070. The landscape simulations feature exogenous growth in population and income as the predominant drivers of urban land value dynamics. Agricultural water use is determined by spatial data on the location of irrigation water rights administered through the prior appropriation doctrine. Citywide urban demands are determined by the size of the city, demographic characteristics, water prices, pricing structure, and the demand for outdoor water use, which is influenced by precipitation. To generate my main results, I analyze three sets of scenarios in which I alter: (1) the area upon which land development is possible and (2) the city-specific population growth trajectory, and (3) the opportunity cost of land development for agricultural landowners. The first scenario set relates to the stringency of land-use regulations, which directly affects both the density of population growth and the urban composition of the city. Population growth, which is featured in the second set of scenarios, has several competing influences on total water use, among which are a direct influence on citywide residential water demand, and also the indirect effects that come about through the incentives to develop individual land parcels. In my third set of scenarios, I hold the land-use regulatory environment constant and impose permanent changes in precipitation patterns. Growing season precipitation indirectly influences total water use through its direct effect on the opportunity cost of land development for the owners of rainfed agricultural land. A novel feature of the simulation framework is that population density, which enters the developed land hedonic function, is treated as endogenous, as it is a function of development patterns and the permitted levels of development under different urban containment policies. Additionally, the simulation design is stochastic in that I treat land development decisions in a probabilistic fashion, facilitating an analysis of the distribution of results, including my main results for total water use, in each of the simulated scenarios. My results indicate that under situations that stimulate increased land development, the distribution of total water use is characterized by a lower mean if there is a sufficient amount of irrigated agricultural land in the vicinity of the city boundary, and if population growth is not prohibitively high. Further, the variance of total water use is decreasing in population density, as more sprawl-like development outcomes have a relatively wider array of potential spatial patterns associated with new land development. In the broadest sense, my dissertation highlights the interplay between population growth, climate change, land-use regulations, and the spatial patterns associated with both non-urban water endowments and new land development. The intermediate link that land-use change provides between climate change and population growth and water use has yet to be acknowledged and given proper treatment in the existing literature. Moreover, the connection between land-use change and water use emphasizes the inherent spatial heterogeneity in how water is used. Given the ubiquity of policies worldwide that impose location-specific constraints on water use, my analysis suggests that spatial considerations should be taken into account in subsequent studies that aim to analyze localized patterns of water use and how they may evolve in the future.
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612. [Article] Linking Moral Obligations, Assumption-based Research, and Structured Decision Making to Inform Bull Trout Recovery
More than 1500 species of plants and animals in the United States are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The U.S. Departments of Interior and Commerce are required, ...Citation Citation
- Title:
- Linking Moral Obligations, Assumption-based Research, and Structured Decision Making to Inform Bull Trout Recovery
- Author:
- Brignon, William R.
More than 1500 species of plants and animals in the United States are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The U.S. Departments of Interior and Commerce are required, under Section 4(f)(1) of the ESA, to develop recovery plans for ESA-listed species under the respective agency jurisdictions. However, developing recovery plans that are both scientifically defensible and consistent with a diversity of stakeholder (e.g., states, tribes, private landowners) values is often difficult. Structured decision making is a framework that resource managers can use to integrate diverse, and often conflicting, stakeholder value systems into species recovery planning. Within this framework difficult decisions are deconstructed into the three basic components: 1) explicit, quantifiable objectives that represent stakeholder values; 2) mathematical models used to predict the effect of management decisions on the outcome of objectives; and 3) management alternatives or actions. The goal of my dissertation was to acknowledge and understand the uncertainty of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus reintroduction strategies and provide an ethical and scientific foundation for an enduring and biologically sound conservation program. My objectives were to (1) describe how incorporating stakeholder values into scientifically defensible recovery planning using structured decision making will fulfill legal and moral obligations to recover species, (2) determine how captive rearing environments affect the development and survival behaviors of bull trout and how these effects may influence the efficacy and ultimate success of reintroduction and recovery programs, and (3) use structured decision making to evaluate the tradeoffs of alternative bull trout reintroduction decisions. I developed this research project to be multifaceted by incorporating components of philosophy (Chapter 2), assumption-based research (Chapter 3), and statistical modeling (Chapter 4). The collective results my research should serve as an example of how to incorporate diverse stakeholder value systems, assumption-based research, and evaluations of alternative management actions into species recovery and reintroduction decisions. This approach promotes transparency and consensus in decision making. Recognizing these benefits, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has adopted a similar approach to manage species and their habitats into the future (i.e., Strategic Habitat Conservation). The impediments to species recovery are numerous. Some of the biggest impediments to recovery planning are conflicting values and interests among stakeholders. I believe that these types of conflicts and related issues are best addressed by integrating the diverse values and interests of stakeholders with the best scientific information available, and doing so in a clear and transparent manner that will broaden acceptance for enduring recovery planning. Science, in and of itself, cannot dictate which management decisions ought to be made; it purely offers a biological and physical basis for estimating the outcomes of decisions. An understanding of humanities is needed to provide context for the myriad of societal obligations. Three moral philosophies; consequentialism, deontology, and virtue theory, suggest that structured decision making is a justified method that can guide natural resource decisions in the future, and will honor legal and moral obligations to recover ESA listed species and their habitats. The ability to recover and delist species in the future depends on an increased understanding of natural ecosystems through scientific discovery and the ability to incorporate stakeholder values into the recovery planning process in a manner that is objective, systematic, and transparent. Animals reared in barren captive environments exhibit different development and behaviors than wild counterparts. Hence, the captive phenotypes may influence the success of reintroduction and recovery programs for threatened and endangered species. I collected wild bull trout embryos from the Metolius River Basin, Oregon and reared them in differing environments to better understand how captivity affects the bull trout phenotype to aide in the development of informed recovery strategies for the species. I compared the development of the brain and eye lens, and boldness and prey acquisition behaviors of bull trout reared in conventional barren and more structurally complex captive environments with that of wild fish. I found that wild bull trout exhibited a greater level of boldness and prey acquisition ability, followed by captive reared bull trout from complex habitats, and finally fish reared in conventional captive environments. In addition, the eye lens of conventionally reared bull trout was larger than complex reared captive fish or that of wild fish. Unexpectedly, I detected wild fish had a smaller relative cerebellum than either captive reared treatment. My results add to the existing literature that suggests rearing fish in more complex captive environments can create a more wild-like phenotype than conventional rearing practices. Rearing fish in captivity is an important tool that can be used to accomplish a suite of management objectives including providing fish for research and reintroduction programs, or in worst case scenarios maintaining refuge populations. An understanding of the effects of captivity on the development and behavior of bull trout is important if life in captivity is the only option to ensure existence of some populations, and can inform rearing and reintroduction programs through prediction of the performance of released individuals. Stakeholders can be divided on what is the optimal reintroduction strategy to use (i.e., translocation, captive rearing, or artificial production) or how many individuals to collect for a program. These decisions are further complicated by a limited understanding of how captivity affects an animal’s phenotype and how well animals will survive upon release. Structured decision making allows natural resource decisions to be made in spite of uncertainty by linking reintroduction goals with alternative management actions through predictive models of ecological processes. Predictive models represent competing hypothesis that describe the belief of the structure and function of the ecological system and can be updated as new information is generated by monitoring and research (i.e., adaptive management). I developed a structured decision model to evaluate the tradeoffs between six bull trout reintroduction alternatives with the goal of maximizing the number of adults in the recipient population, up to 300 individuals, without reducing the donor population to an unacceptable state. The six alternative decisions that were evaluated are to 1) do-nothing, 2) translocate 1000 juveniles, 3) translocate 60 adults, 4) translocate 1000 juveniles and 40 adults, 5) captive rear 20,000 wild embryos, or 6) artificial production of 60 wild adults. The model was parameterized with published demographic parameters where available and consists of three stage-based Leslie matrix models that represent the donor, captive, and recipient populations. A state dependent policy was created that identifies the optimal decision over a combination of possible donor and recipient adult abundance states. One-way sensitivity analysis suggests that the value of the decision outcome was most influenced by survival parameters that resulted in increased adult abundance in the recipient population, and increased juvenile survival in the donor and recipient populations. The decision outcome was also sensitive to small and large adult fecundity rates and sex ratio. The outcome was least sensitive to survival parameters associated with the captive population, a survival reduction of naive reintroduced individuals, and juvenile carrying capacity of the reintroduced population. Two-way sensitivity analysis with all combinations of model parameters identified interactions that influence the decision outcome and identity. For example, a comparison of the juvenile density dependent parameters for the donor population indicated that when above a maximum egg survival of 0.14, the juvenile carrying capacity had a greater influence on the expected outcome of the decision. When juvenile carrying capacity in the donor population was less than ~5500 individuals, the optimal strategy was to do nothing, which most likely avoided an unacceptable reduction in the donor population. Whereas, translocating adults was the optimal decision when both density dependent parameters (i.e., juvenile carrying capacity, maximum egg survival) were in the upper end of their range and resulted in a decision outcome of greater than 60 adults in the recipient population. The optimal decision was to captive rear embryos when there was minimal effect of captive rearing and translocation on the survival of released fish. Whereas, translocating adults was the optimal decision when the probability of survival was less than 0.75 for captive reared fish as compared to translocated fish. As the survival penalty for captive reared fish neared 1.00, which indicated little to no effects of captivity on a fish’s survival after release, artificial production became the optimal decision regardless of the effects of a translocation on post-release survival. This model and sensitivity analyses can serve as the foundation for formal adaptive management and improved effectiveness, efficiency, and transparency of bull trout reintroduction decisions. Ongoing bull trout reintroductions and research will continue to lessen uncertainty and new information can be incorporated into decision models to guide future reintroduction decisions and maximize the benefit from limited resources available for bull trout recovery.
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613. [Article] Students as pro-social bystanders : opportunities, past behaviors, and intentions to intervene in sexual assault risk situations
Sexual assault is a major public health concern in the U.S, and college students are particularly vulnerable to victimization. A health issue that affects nearly one in four women (Fisher, Cullen, & Turner, ...Citation Citation
- Title:
- Students as pro-social bystanders : opportunities, past behaviors, and intentions to intervene in sexual assault risk situations
- Author:
- Hoxmeier, Jill C.
Sexual assault is a major public health concern in the U.S, and college students are particularly vulnerable to victimization. A health issue that affects nearly one in four women (Fisher, Cullen, & Turner, 2000; Karjane, Cullen, & Turner, 2005) and that is associated with severe negative health outcomes, including depression substance abuse, suicide ideation, and risky sexual behaviors (CDC, 2012), warrants effective prevention programs. Moving away from traditional prevention efforts, which target females as potential victims in risk reduction programs and males as potential perpetrators in attitudinal-shifting programs, bystander engagement programs have become increasingly more widespread. These programs aim to engage all students on the college campus as potential bystanders who can intervene to prevent a sexual assault or reduce the harm of an assault that has already occurred (Banyard, Moynihan & Plante, 2007). Burn (2009) investigated potential barriers to pro-social bystander intervention using the Situational Model of Bystander Intervention, a model based on the original research of bystander behavior of Latanè and Darley (1970). The model outlines five barriers that influence students' intent to intervene as witnesses to sexual assault: failure to notice the situation, failure to identify the situation as high risk, failure to take intervention responsibility, failure to intervene due to skills deficit, and failure to intervene due to audience inhibition (Burn, 2009). She found that students' perception of barriers negatively correlated with intervention behaviors as bystanders to sexual assault (Burn, 2009). Although bystander engagement programs have shown initial promise in increasing students' intent to intervene, more needs to be known about the opportunities students have to intervene, their past intervention actions, and their intent to intervene in the future across the wide range of situations that encompass sexual assault risk. In addition, to develop effective programs that aim to increase pro-social behavior, understanding the salient influences of students' intent is critical. This study uses the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1991) to examine the influences of students’ intent to perform 12 different pro-social bystander behaviors. The TPB asserts that individuals' behavior is most proximally influenced by their behavioral intentions, and intentions are influences by their perceived behavioral control to perform the behavior, subjective norms that support performing the behavior, and attitudes toward the behavior (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1991). The four primary aims of this study were: 1) to examine the demographic correlates of students' opportunities, past intervention actions, and reported intent to intervene; 2) to examine any differences in students' intent to intervene based on the level of intervention (pre-, mid-, and post-assault) and type of intervention (with the potential or actual victim compared to the potential or actual perpetrator); 3) to examine the influences of perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, and attitudes on students' intent to intervene as bystanders; and 4) to compare the TPB-based model to the Situational Model of Bystander Intervention (Burn, 2009) in its ability to explain students' intent to intervene as bystanders. In the Fall of 2014, a sample of 815 undergraduate students at Oregon State University completed the Sexual Assault Bystander Behavior Questionnaire (SABB-Q), a tool comprised of items to measure students' opportunities, past behaviors, and future intent, in addition to measures assessing the influences of students' intent in line with the Theory of Planned Behavior and Burn's (2009) Situational Model of Bystander Intervention. Students who participate in Greek communities (fraternities and sororities) reported significantly greater odds of having the opportunity to perform four of the 12 intervention behaviors compared to non-Greek students, while student-athletes reported significantly greater odds of having the opportunity to perform two of the 12 intervention behaviors. Females reported significantly more past pro-social intervention behaviors (x̄ = 0.87) compared to males (x̄ = 0.79; p = 0.007). Regarding intent to intervene in the future, females reported significantly greater intent to intervene compared to males (x̄ = 6.07 vs. 5.68; p = 0.007). Students with friends who have been victims of sexual assault reported greater intent to intervene compared those without friends who have been victims (x̄ = 6.04 vs. 5.89; p = 0.02). Students with a personal history of victimization reported significantly greater intent compared to those without a personal history (x̄ =6.13 vs 5.93; p = 0.03). Students reported significantly greater intent to intervene with the potential or actual victim compared to the potential or actual perpetrator (x̄ = 6.19 vs. 5.74, p < 0.001). Females reported significantly greater intent to intervene with both the potential or actual victims and perpetrators (x̄ = 6.31 and 5.84, respectively) compared to males (x̄ = 5.88 and 5.49, respectively). Both males and females reported the greatest intent to perform post-assault intervention behavior (x̄ = 6.23), followed by pre-assault (x̄ = 6.08) and mid-assault behaviors (x̄ = 5.57). Females reported significantly greater intent to perform nine of the 12 pro-social intervention behaviors compared to males. A multiple regression analysis revealed that perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, and attitudes explained a significant proportion of the variance in intent to intervene (R² = 0.55, F(3, 771) = 315.68, p < 0.000). Perceived behavioral control was highly significant (β = 0.48, p < 0.001), as were subjective norms (β = 0.15, p < 0.001) and attitudes (β = 0.30, p < 0.001). Gender differences were also observed. For females, perceived behavioral control was highly significant (β = 0.49, p < 0.001), as were subjective norms (β = 0.15, p < 0.001) and attitudes (β = 0.29, p < 0.001). For males, perceived behavioral control was highly significant (β = 0.49, p < 0.001), as were attitudes (β = 0.29, p < 0.001). However, males' subjective norms were not significantly related (β = 0.07, p = 0.199) to their intent to intervene. Further analysis revealed a significant interaction between gender and subjective norms (β = -0.28; p = 0.039). The TPB-based model including this moderation effect explained a significant proportion of the variance in students' intent to intervene (R² = 0.57, F(6, 766) = 168.46, p < 0.000). Interveners reported significantly greater perceived behavioral control than non-interveners for seven of the 12 intervention behaviors; more supportive subjective norms than non-interveners for six of the 12 intervention behaviors; more positive attitudes than non-interveners for only one of the 12 intervention behaviors; and greater intent to intervene in the future for six of the 12 intervention behaviors. However, differences in the three TPB variables between interveners and non-interveners were not consistent for the 12 intervention behaviors. Regarding Burn's (2009) Situational Model of Bystander Intervention, a multiple regression analysis revealed two of the five barriers were significantly related to students’ intent to intervene: the failure to take intervention responsibility barrier (β = -0.29, p < 0.001) and the failure to intervene due to audience inhibition barrier (β = -0.22, p < 0.001). The model in whole explained a large proportion of the variance (R2 = 0.25, F(5, 768) = 50.14, p < 0.000). Gender differences were also observed. For females, failure to take intervention responsibility (β = -0.23; p < 0.000) and failure to intervene due to audience inhibition (β = -0.23; p < 0.001) both had a significant, negative influence on their intent to intervene. For males, failure to take intervention responsibility (β = -0.21; p < 0.014) had a significant, negative influence on intent to intervene. Additional analysis revealed no significant interactions between gender and any of the five barriers. The TPB-based model explained a greater proportion of the variance (R2 = 0.55) compared to Situational Model of Bystander Intervention (R² = 0.25) in the multiple regression analysis using all 12 intervention behaviors. All three variables in the TPB-based model were significantly related to students’ intent, whereas only two of the five barriers were significantly related. A final multiple regression analysis was conducted using all three significant TPB variables and the two significant barriers to explain students' intent to intervene. The combined model explained a significant proportion of variance in students' intent (R² = 0.58 F(5, 756) = 206.19, p < 0.000) and significantly improved upon the TPB-based model (Δ R² = 0.03; p < 0.000). The results of this study have several implications for future research and public health practice. First, it is important to ask students about their opportunities to intervene in addition to their actual intervention behaviors because this information helps paint a clearer picture of bystander engagement. This assessment could also help identify high-risk groups: students who have greater opportunities to intervene as bystanders and/or report fewer intervention behaviors compared to their reported opportunities. Second, students may conceptualize intervention behaviors differently depending on the phase of the assault and with whom the intervention behavior requires intervening. Accordingly, programs aimed at encouraging students to intervene should take these differences into consideration. Third, the Theory of Planned Behavior, used to explain and change other health-related behaviors, can effectively be applied to help uncover determinants of pro-social bystander behaviors. Perceived behavioral control, subjective norms, and attitudes appear to be salient influences in students' intent to intervene. Therefore, bystander engagement programs should incorporate activities to heighten students' skills to intervene, change social norms that support bystander intervention, and shift attitudes toward the benefits of intervening. This study demonstrates the importance of using an established, evidenced-based theoretical framework to explain behavioral influences and strengthens the argument for continued use of theory to identify, and potentially change, salient influences in behavioral performance. Students as pro-social bystanders have the potential to make a positive impact on the reduction of sexual assault on the college campus. Although the responsibility for sexual assault rests on those who perpetrate such acts, and primary prevention strategies aimed at those demonstrating a risk for perpetration are imperative, sexual assault is a public health issue that warrants a multi-pronged approach to reduce its incidence and migrate its associated harms. Programs that engage students as pro-social bystanders have the potential to make a positive impact on the reduction of sexual assault incidence in the absence of effective primary prevention strategies. The findings of this study make a contribution to the literature examining influences of students' pro-social bystander intervention to sexual assault situations and provide suggestions for strategies to increase bystander engagement.