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• 341. [Article] A supply chain model for optimizing fixed and mobile bio-oil refineries on a regional scale

  The use of fossil fuels and their related impact on the environment and global warming have encouraged societies to pursue more sustainable and renewable alternatives, e.g., forest-based bio-oil. Thus, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A supply chain model for optimizing fixed and mobile bio-oil refineries on a regional scale Author: Mirzaie, Pantea The use of fossil fuels and their related impact on the environment and global warming have encouraged societies to pursue more sustainable and renewable alternatives, e.g., forest-based bio-oil. Thus, a vital need to decrease the level of greenhouse gas emissions and the tendency of nations to reduce their dependency on imported oil have created a new mission for society: To increase the robustness of the environmental and economic aspects of woody biomass to bio-oil supply chains. Prior studies have focused on developing novel methods and approaches for improving single stages of biomass supply chains. Others have focused on ameliorating biomass supply chain performance from a systems perspective for a host of different biomass types, e.g., agricultural residues and forest residues, and logistics issues, e.g., transportation distance and storage. Bio-oil can be produced from woody biomass through the fast pyrolysis process, among different methods. Mobile processing has been developed in recent years to facilitate bio-oil production from woody waste and to reduce overall bio-oil supply chain cost, however, questions surrounding the environmental and economic benefits of using mobile processing plants in combination with large-scale non-mobile (fixed) processing plants remain unanswered. The research presented develops a mathematical model capable of assisting decision makers in determining the optimal combination and location of fixed and mobile bio-refinery plants for a known woody waste supply stream and set of harvesting areas. The major cost elements in the optimization model are transportation costs and capital costs. The model is applied to hypothetical case for northwest Oregon by using historical harvesting data for state-owned and private forests in the region. Distances between locations are obtained by using a geographical information system to elucidate roadway effects. The model is optimized for cost by using an integer linear programming solver. Supply chain environmental impacts are then assessed by considering the carbon footprint (CO₂ equivalent mass) of transportation activities and the bio-refinery infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for six major factors within the mathematical model to assess their effects on the estimated supply chain cost and carbon footprint, as well as on the number and location of the mobile and fixed bio-refineries. The application of the model indicates that the utility of a mobile processing plant aligned with a fixed processing plant is more obvious when transportation cost and distance increase. In addition, this study seems to confirm the premise that transferring bio-oil to a processing facility is often more preferable than transporting woody biomass. However, results indicate that the capital intensity (cost and environmental impact) of mobile processing plants can greatly degrade their relative utility within a mixed mode supply chain. Title: A supply chain model for optimizing fixed and mobile bio-oil refineries on a regional scale Author: Mirzaie, Pantea The use of fossil fuels and their related impact on the environment and global warming have encouraged societies to pursue more sustainable and renewable alternatives, e.g., forest-based bio-oil. Thus, a vital need to decrease the level of greenhouse gas emissions and the tendency of nations to reduce their dependency on imported oil have created a new mission for society: To increase the robustness of the environmental and economic aspects of woody biomass to bio-oil supply chains. Prior studies have focused on developing novel methods and approaches for improving single stages of biomass supply chains. Others have focused on ameliorating biomass supply chain performance from a systems perspective for a host of different biomass types, e.g., agricultural residues and forest residues, and logistics issues, e.g., transportation distance and storage. Bio-oil can be produced from woody biomass through the fast pyrolysis process, among different methods. Mobile processing has been developed in recent years to facilitate bio-oil production from woody waste and to reduce overall bio-oil supply chain cost, however, questions surrounding the environmental and economic benefits of using mobile processing plants in combination with large-scale non-mobile (fixed) processing plants remain unanswered. The research presented develops a mathematical model capable of assisting decision makers in determining the optimal combination and location of fixed and mobile bio-refinery plants for a known woody waste supply stream and set of harvesting areas. The major cost elements in the optimization model are transportation costs and capital costs. The model is applied to hypothetical case for northwest Oregon by using historical harvesting data for state-owned and private forests in the region. Distances between locations are obtained by using a geographical information system to elucidate roadway effects. The model is optimized for cost by using an integer linear programming solver. Supply chain environmental impacts are then assessed by considering the carbon footprint (CO₂ equivalent mass) of transportation activities and the bio-refinery infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for six major factors within the mathematical model to assess their effects on the estimated supply chain cost and carbon footprint, as well as on the number and location of the mobile and fixed bio-refineries. The application of the model indicates that the utility of a mobile processing plant aligned with a fixed processing plant is more obvious when transportation cost and distance increase. In addition, this study seems to confirm the premise that transferring bio-oil to a processing facility is often more preferable than transporting woody biomass. However, results indicate that the capital intensity (cost and environmental impact) of mobile processing plants can greatly degrade their relative utility within a mixed mode supply chain. Close

• 342. [Article] Mapping the thermal climate of the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

  The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the Cascades of central Oregon provides a unique opportunity to study spatial climate patterns on a relatively small scale. Historical records at the 64 square-kilometer ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Mapping the thermal climate of the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon Author: Smith, Jonathan W. The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the Cascades of central Oregon provides a unique opportunity to study spatial climate patterns on a relatively small scale. Historical records at the 64 square-kilometer site provide a spatiallydense 30-year dataset. Thermal regimes at the H. J. Andrews are generally known but the effects of its complex topography and canopy cover on temperatures have been poorly understood. In this study, 1971-2000 mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature maps of the H. J. Andrews were created over a 50- meter grid, accounting for several environmental factors affecting microclimates in forested, mountainous terrain. The effects of elevation, forest canopy, cloudiness, and topographic shading on radiation regimes were assumed to be the primary factors and the datasets were adjusted to account for them. Specifically, it was assumed that maximum temperatures were affected by shortwave daytime radiation regimes, and minimum temperatures were affected by surface longwave radiation emission at night. The Image-Processing Workbench (IPW) was used to estimate incoming shortwave solar radiation at all climate station sites, taking into account elevation, cloudiness and topographic shading. Using IPW, fisheye photographs, and the HemiView program, proportions of solar radiation and sky view factors blocked by the tree canopy were calculated at each site, and accounted for when calculating daily shortwave radiation values for each month. Sky view factors were calculated at each site accounting for canopy and surrounding topography. Specific site pairs were then analyzed by plotting observed monthly temperature differences against simulated radiation and sky view factors and computing monthly regression functions. Monthly maximum temperature/shortwave radiation regression functions were used to adjust maximum temperatures onto 'open, flat' terrain, (leaving only elevation effects on temperatures), and monthly minimum temperature/sky view factor regression functions were used to adjust minimum temperatures. Temperatures were spatially interpolated over the H. J. Andrews using the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) program, which calculates spatially-varying temperature/elevation gradients. Topographic effects of shortwave radiation and sky view factors were reintroduced to the PRISM temperature grids using the appropriate regression functions. To make the resulting maps as useful and applicable as possible for future research, temperatures were modeled to simulate open siting conditions common in NWS station networks. Overall, temperatures were most sensitive to elevation and topographic position. Maximum temperature was sensitive to variations in shortwave radiation, especially in winter when solar radiation loads were small. Minimum temperature was sensitive to variations in sky view factors, particularly during clear summer months. Factors not accounted for in the project include small-scale effects of cold-air drainage, forest edge effects, topographic scale effects, and stream effects. These and other issues are summarized in a set of recommendations for future climate mapping research in the H. J. Andrews. Title: Mapping the thermal climate of the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon Author: Smith, Jonathan W. The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the Cascades of central Oregon provides a unique opportunity to study spatial climate patterns on a relatively small scale. Historical records at the 64 square-kilometer site provide a spatiallydense 30-year dataset. Thermal regimes at the H. J. Andrews are generally known but the effects of its complex topography and canopy cover on temperatures have been poorly understood. In this study, 1971-2000 mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature maps of the H. J. Andrews were created over a 50- meter grid, accounting for several environmental factors affecting microclimates in forested, mountainous terrain. The effects of elevation, forest canopy, cloudiness, and topographic shading on radiation regimes were assumed to be the primary factors and the datasets were adjusted to account for them. Specifically, it was assumed that maximum temperatures were affected by shortwave daytime radiation regimes, and minimum temperatures were affected by surface longwave radiation emission at night. The Image-Processing Workbench (IPW) was used to estimate incoming shortwave solar radiation at all climate station sites, taking into account elevation, cloudiness and topographic shading. Using IPW, fisheye photographs, and the HemiView program, proportions of solar radiation and sky view factors blocked by the tree canopy were calculated at each site, and accounted for when calculating daily shortwave radiation values for each month. Sky view factors were calculated at each site accounting for canopy and surrounding topography. Specific site pairs were then analyzed by plotting observed monthly temperature differences against simulated radiation and sky view factors and computing monthly regression functions. Monthly maximum temperature/shortwave radiation regression functions were used to adjust maximum temperatures onto 'open, flat' terrain, (leaving only elevation effects on temperatures), and monthly minimum temperature/sky view factor regression functions were used to adjust minimum temperatures. Temperatures were spatially interpolated over the H. J. Andrews using the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) program, which calculates spatially-varying temperature/elevation gradients. Topographic effects of shortwave radiation and sky view factors were reintroduced to the PRISM temperature grids using the appropriate regression functions. To make the resulting maps as useful and applicable as possible for future research, temperatures were modeled to simulate open siting conditions common in NWS station networks. Overall, temperatures were most sensitive to elevation and topographic position. Maximum temperature was sensitive to variations in shortwave radiation, especially in winter when solar radiation loads were small. Minimum temperature was sensitive to variations in sky view factors, particularly during clear summer months. Factors not accounted for in the project include small-scale effects of cold-air drainage, forest edge effects, topographic scale effects, and stream effects. These and other issues are summarized in a set of recommendations for future climate mapping research in the H. J. Andrews. Close

• 343. [Article] Hydrology and geomorphic evolution of basaltic landscapes, High Cascades, Oregon

  The basaltic landscapes of the Oregon High Cascades form a natural laboratory for examining how geologic setting and history influence groundwater flowpaths, streamflow sensitivity to climate, and landscape ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrology and geomorphic evolution of basaltic landscapes, High Cascades, Oregon Author: Jefferson, Anne (Anne Jarvis) The basaltic landscapes of the Oregon High Cascades form a natural laboratory for examining how geologic setting and history influence groundwater flowpaths, streamflow sensitivity to climate, and landscape evolution. In the High Cascades, highly permeable young basaltic lavas form extensive aquifers. These aquifers are the dominant sources of summer streamflow for the Willamette River and its tributary, the McKenzie River, whose watershed forms the study area. Groundwater is discharged at large volume, cold springs, and discharge, temperature, and isotopic measurements at seven springs were used to constrain groundwater patterns. Lava flow geometries have a significant influence on groundwater recharge areas and flowpaths, sometimes superseding topographic controls. Transit times to springs are ~3-14 years, and flowpaths are generally shallow and have limited contact with deeper geothermal systems, except at fault zones. Time-series analyses of historical discharge, precipitation, snow, and temperature records reveal that the distribution of permeable rocks and resultant groundwater systems strongly influence streamflow response to climatic forcing. The annual hydrograph is shaped by groundwater storage and release, but inter-annual streamflow variability is largely the result of climatic forcing. Over the past 60 years, warmer winters and earlier snowmelt have lengthened the summer recession period and decreased autumn minimum discharges in a groundwater-dominated watershed. A chronosequence of dated rock units, combined with field observations and measurements of slopes, contributing areas, and drainage densities, shows that the geologic history of a watershed controls the stage of drainage development. Groundwater flowpaths remain the dominant drainage mechanism for up to one million years, but as chemical weathering, glaciation, and other processes reduce the land surface permeability, channel networks grow up-slope of the springs. Within three million years, water is carried via a fully developed runoff-dominated stream network, groundwater discharge is insubstantial, and the landscape is shaped by fluvial and mass-wasting processes. The geology of a landscape is important for understanding hydrological processes at time scales ranging from a single season to several million years. Title: Hydrology and geomorphic evolution of basaltic landscapes, High Cascades, Oregon Author: Jefferson, Anne (Anne Jarvis) The basaltic landscapes of the Oregon High Cascades form a natural laboratory for examining how geologic setting and history influence groundwater flowpaths, streamflow sensitivity to climate, and landscape evolution. In the High Cascades, highly permeable young basaltic lavas form extensive aquifers. These aquifers are the dominant sources of summer streamflow for the Willamette River and its tributary, the McKenzie River, whose watershed forms the study area. Groundwater is discharged at large volume, cold springs, and discharge, temperature, and isotopic measurements at seven springs were used to constrain groundwater patterns. Lava flow geometries have a significant influence on groundwater recharge areas and flowpaths, sometimes superseding topographic controls. Transit times to springs are ~3-14 years, and flowpaths are generally shallow and have limited contact with deeper geothermal systems, except at fault zones. Time-series analyses of historical discharge, precipitation, snow, and temperature records reveal that the distribution of permeable rocks and resultant groundwater systems strongly influence streamflow response to climatic forcing. The annual hydrograph is shaped by groundwater storage and release, but inter-annual streamflow variability is largely the result of climatic forcing. Over the past 60 years, warmer winters and earlier snowmelt have lengthened the summer recession period and decreased autumn minimum discharges in a groundwater-dominated watershed. A chronosequence of dated rock units, combined with field observations and measurements of slopes, contributing areas, and drainage densities, shows that the geologic history of a watershed controls the stage of drainage development. Groundwater flowpaths remain the dominant drainage mechanism for up to one million years, but as chemical weathering, glaciation, and other processes reduce the land surface permeability, channel networks grow up-slope of the springs. Within three million years, water is carried via a fully developed runoff-dominated stream network, groundwater discharge is insubstantial, and the landscape is shaped by fluvial and mass-wasting processes. The geology of a landscape is important for understanding hydrological processes at time scales ranging from a single season to several million years. Close

• 344. [Article] Spatial pattern and dynamics of hardwood patches in the Coast Range of Oregon, 1939-1993

  Analysis of the long-term spatial pattern and dynamics of hardwood patches in the Coast Range of Oregon provides numerous ecological insights. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances have contributed to ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial pattern and dynamics of hardwood patches in the Coast Range of Oregon, 1939-1993 Author: Hess, Rebecca Susan Analysis of the long-term spatial pattern and dynamics of hardwood patches in the Coast Range of Oregon provides numerous ecological insights. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances have contributed to the development of a patchy mosaic of vegetation types in the area. Some hardwood patches in the Coast Range may be the precursors to stable vegetation states. The five objectives for the study were to: 1) develop the methodology for studying patch dynamics at landscape scales; 2) describe changes in the areal extent and occurrence of hardwood patches; 3) characterize the sizes and shapes, and size and shape changes of hardwood patches in the west-central Coast Range of Oregon; 4) describe the shift in within-patch heterogeneity and within-patch vegetation composition features of hardwood patches; and 5) characterize patches occurring in riparian areas. A viable methodology was developed for the detailed study of the change in vegetation patches across landscapes using scanned, georeferenced aerial photos, aerial photo interpretation of hardwood patches, and GIS techniques. Patch locations and characteristics were compared to a suite of environmental and other variables. The hardwood patch mosaic was not a stable landscape feature. The total area covered by hardwood patches, the weighted mean size of hardwood patches, and the number of patches sampled declined from 1939 to 1993. Forest Service lands showed the most dramatic drop in hardwood area, while private non-industrial lands showed the most dramatic increase in hardwood area. Most patches present in 1939 either disappeared or decreased in size. In 1993, hardwood patches were found closer to streams and on lower slope positions than in 1939. This may be associated with historic disturbance patterns of fire, logging, and grazing that occurred on the upper slopes, allowing for alder establishment on these sites. Hardwood patch shapes became more complex over time, especially in riparian areas. Core area:edge area ratios increased. Hardwood patches were less heterogeneous in within-patch composition than expected, with large conifers the main non-hardwood cover type within patches; within-patch heterogeneity declined during the study period. Recent management practices are likely increasing hardwood fragmentation and shape complexity, and restricting the landscape distribution of hardwood patches. Title: Spatial pattern and dynamics of hardwood patches in the Coast Range of Oregon, 1939-1993 Author: Hess, Rebecca Susan Analysis of the long-term spatial pattern and dynamics of hardwood patches in the Coast Range of Oregon provides numerous ecological insights. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances have contributed to the development of a patchy mosaic of vegetation types in the area. Some hardwood patches in the Coast Range may be the precursors to stable vegetation states. The five objectives for the study were to: 1) develop the methodology for studying patch dynamics at landscape scales; 2) describe changes in the areal extent and occurrence of hardwood patches; 3) characterize the sizes and shapes, and size and shape changes of hardwood patches in the west-central Coast Range of Oregon; 4) describe the shift in within-patch heterogeneity and within-patch vegetation composition features of hardwood patches; and 5) characterize patches occurring in riparian areas. A viable methodology was developed for the detailed study of the change in vegetation patches across landscapes using scanned, georeferenced aerial photos, aerial photo interpretation of hardwood patches, and GIS techniques. Patch locations and characteristics were compared to a suite of environmental and other variables. The hardwood patch mosaic was not a stable landscape feature. The total area covered by hardwood patches, the weighted mean size of hardwood patches, and the number of patches sampled declined from 1939 to 1993. Forest Service lands showed the most dramatic drop in hardwood area, while private non-industrial lands showed the most dramatic increase in hardwood area. Most patches present in 1939 either disappeared or decreased in size. In 1993, hardwood patches were found closer to streams and on lower slope positions than in 1939. This may be associated with historic disturbance patterns of fire, logging, and grazing that occurred on the upper slopes, allowing for alder establishment on these sites. Hardwood patch shapes became more complex over time, especially in riparian areas. Core area:edge area ratios increased. Hardwood patches were less heterogeneous in within-patch composition than expected, with large conifers the main non-hardwood cover type within patches; within-patch heterogeneity declined during the study period. Recent management practices are likely increasing hardwood fragmentation and shape complexity, and restricting the landscape distribution of hardwood patches. Close

• 345. [Article] Summary report to assist development of ecosystem flow recommendations for the Coast Fork and Middle Fork of the Willamette River, Oregon

  Prepared for Sustainable Rivers Project of The Nature Conservancy and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Summary report to assist development of ecosystem flow recommendations for the Coast Fork and Middle Fork of the Willamette River, Oregon Author: Ashkenas, Linda, Nygaard, Chris, Gregory, Stanley V. Prepared for Sustainable Rivers Project of The Nature Conservancy and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Title: Summary report to assist development of ecosystem flow recommendations for the Coast Fork and Middle Fork of the Willamette River, Oregon Author: Ashkenas, Linda, Nygaard, Chris, Gregory, Stanley V. Prepared for Sustainable Rivers Project of The Nature Conservancy and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Close

• 346. [Article] Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison

  This thesis presents the results of a formal evaluation of a new AOGCM, GENMOM, demonstrating its ability to simulate present-day climate and ENSO dynamics. The model is applied to simulate climate for ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison Author: Alder, Jay R. This thesis presents the results of a formal evaluation of a new AOGCM, GENMOM, demonstrating its ability to simulate present-day climate and ENSO dynamics. The model is applied to simulate climate for the Last Glacial Maximum, deglacial, and Holocene time periods. The model output is evaluated against the best available proxy reconstructions in a detailed data-model comparison. ENSO strength is analyzed in seven paleo simulations and compared to coral and laminated lake sediment proxy records to provide an understanding of how ENSO related mechanisms varied in the past and how they vary under increased atmospheric CO₂ forced global warming. The GENMOM simulated present-day is found to be on par with three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment and is comparable with reanalysis products (e.g, NCEP2). Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semipermanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM present-day simulation include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-thanobserved overturning circulation. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. GENMOM is demonstrated to capture ENSO dynamics similar to eight AOGCMs that were evaluated in the IPCC AR4. The Niño 3 - 4 indices have a standard deviation within 0.3 °C of the observations, indicating GENMOM is producing variability in the tropical Pacifc that is comparable to observations. GENMOM produces present-day ENSO events with an average period of 5.6 years, which is within the 2 – 7 range exhibited in the observed historical record. The mid-Holocene (6ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21ka) simulations are compared to the best available proxy reconstructions for sea surface temperature, precipitation and net moisture to ensure the simulations are plausible. This thesis finds that the model is in good agreement over broad spatial scales, with regional discrepancies between the model and proxy data. Coral and laminated lake sediment proxy records indicate mid-Holocene ENSO strength was reduced by 15 - 60%, offering a scenario in which ENSO-related components can be tested in climates different than present-day, thereby providing context for future changes in ENSO. The mid-Holocene simulations exhibit a 20% reduction of ENSO strength, caused by a precession forced enhancement of the Indian summer monsoon, which strengthened ENSO-related Bjerknes feedbacks. ENSO strength in the LGM is weakened by ~25%, which is not found to be caused by changes in equatorial Pacific dynamics but rather mean state cooling that weakens the tropical thermocline. The 2x and 4x simulations have strongly enhanced and more frequent ENSO events caused by disproportionate warming of the eastern Pacific relative to the western Pacific, which weakens the east-west Pacific surface temperature gradient, allowing larger anomalies, and hence ENSO events, to develop. Title: Simulating past, present, and future changes in ENSO : a model evaluation and data-model comparison Author: Alder, Jay R. This thesis presents the results of a formal evaluation of a new AOGCM, GENMOM, demonstrating its ability to simulate present-day climate and ENSO dynamics. The model is applied to simulate climate for the Last Glacial Maximum, deglacial, and Holocene time periods. The model output is evaluated against the best available proxy reconstructions in a detailed data-model comparison. ENSO strength is analyzed in seven paleo simulations and compared to coral and laminated lake sediment proxy records to provide an understanding of how ENSO related mechanisms varied in the past and how they vary under increased atmospheric CO₂ forced global warming. The GENMOM simulated present-day is found to be on par with three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment and is comparable with reanalysis products (e.g, NCEP2). Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semipermanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM present-day simulation include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-thanobserved overturning circulation. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. GENMOM is demonstrated to capture ENSO dynamics similar to eight AOGCMs that were evaluated in the IPCC AR4. The Niño 3 - 4 indices have a standard deviation within 0.3 °C of the observations, indicating GENMOM is producing variability in the tropical Pacifc that is comparable to observations. GENMOM produces present-day ENSO events with an average period of 5.6 years, which is within the 2 – 7 range exhibited in the observed historical record. The mid-Holocene (6ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21ka) simulations are compared to the best available proxy reconstructions for sea surface temperature, precipitation and net moisture to ensure the simulations are plausible. This thesis finds that the model is in good agreement over broad spatial scales, with regional discrepancies between the model and proxy data. Coral and laminated lake sediment proxy records indicate mid-Holocene ENSO strength was reduced by 15 - 60%, offering a scenario in which ENSO-related components can be tested in climates different than present-day, thereby providing context for future changes in ENSO. The mid-Holocene simulations exhibit a 20% reduction of ENSO strength, caused by a precession forced enhancement of the Indian summer monsoon, which strengthened ENSO-related Bjerknes feedbacks. ENSO strength in the LGM is weakened by ~25%, which is not found to be caused by changes in equatorial Pacific dynamics but rather mean state cooling that weakens the tropical thermocline. The 2x and 4x simulations have strongly enhanced and more frequent ENSO events caused by disproportionate warming of the eastern Pacific relative to the western Pacific, which weakens the east-west Pacific surface temperature gradient, allowing larger anomalies, and hence ENSO events, to develop. Close

• 347. [Article] Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments

  The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments Author: Beamer, Jordan P. The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier cover change on regional hydrology. The region is data-sparse and contains a complex assemblage of topography and land cover, including a system of mountain glaciers that are retreating at some of the highest rates on Earth. The high rates of runoff from precipitation and glacial melt delivered by coastal rivers influence ocean circulation patterns, rates of global sea level rise, and provide spawning habitat for the large salmon populations. Physically-based hydrological modeling of the major water budget components of the GOA, driven using historical reanalysis weather data and land cover, reveals that the modeled water budget components, particularly precipitation input, vary widely between commonly-used weather products. The majority of the large freshwater flux into the GOA is derived from distributed coastal streams rather than the large inland rivers. The modeled seasonal aggregated GOA hydrograph is dominated by the spring and early summer snowmelt, and supplemented by late summer glacial ice melt. Model results demonstrate good agreement with NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in terms of annual amplitudes and long term losses (ice loss), and suggest that existing GRACE solutions, previously reported to represent glacier mass balance alone, are actually measuring the full water budget of land and ice surfaces. An ensemble of climate models and future emissions scenarios were paired with systematically altered land cover to test the sensitivity of the hydrologic system to changes in regional climate patterns and glacier coverage representative of late twenty first century conditions. Compared with the hindcast simulations, the model results forced with increased regional air temperatures and precipitation inputs and reduced glacier cover produce an increase in the annual GOA freshwater discharge volume. The seasonal GOA hydrograph is flattened due to increased winter runoff from more winter rainfall and less snow accumulation, and lower levels of snowmelt and glacier ice contribution. Large uncertainties exist in the direction of change in the glacier runoff component, primarily due to uncertainties that exist in predicting glacier response to climate change. Hydrological modeling with high resolution and inclusion of relevant physical processes can produce significantly improved products that are of high value to and in demand by numerous other scientific communities. However, the value and accuracy of the output from the hydrologic model is highly dependent on the weather forcing quality. Given the considerable importance of quality weather forcing for hydrologic modeling, it is imperative to assess the suitability of multiple products by evaluating local and regional performance and accounting for uncertainty. Additional efforts should be made to improve the spatial resolution of the reanalysis through downscaling and to strategically increase the number of weather stations at high elevations and incorporate that data into weather forcing datasets. Title: Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments Author: Beamer, Jordan P. The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier cover change on regional hydrology. The region is data-sparse and contains a complex assemblage of topography and land cover, including a system of mountain glaciers that are retreating at some of the highest rates on Earth. The high rates of runoff from precipitation and glacial melt delivered by coastal rivers influence ocean circulation patterns, rates of global sea level rise, and provide spawning habitat for the large salmon populations. Physically-based hydrological modeling of the major water budget components of the GOA, driven using historical reanalysis weather data and land cover, reveals that the modeled water budget components, particularly precipitation input, vary widely between commonly-used weather products. The majority of the large freshwater flux into the GOA is derived from distributed coastal streams rather than the large inland rivers. The modeled seasonal aggregated GOA hydrograph is dominated by the spring and early summer snowmelt, and supplemented by late summer glacial ice melt. Model results demonstrate good agreement with NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in terms of annual amplitudes and long term losses (ice loss), and suggest that existing GRACE solutions, previously reported to represent glacier mass balance alone, are actually measuring the full water budget of land and ice surfaces. An ensemble of climate models and future emissions scenarios were paired with systematically altered land cover to test the sensitivity of the hydrologic system to changes in regional climate patterns and glacier coverage representative of late twenty first century conditions. Compared with the hindcast simulations, the model results forced with increased regional air temperatures and precipitation inputs and reduced glacier cover produce an increase in the annual GOA freshwater discharge volume. The seasonal GOA hydrograph is flattened due to increased winter runoff from more winter rainfall and less snow accumulation, and lower levels of snowmelt and glacier ice contribution. Large uncertainties exist in the direction of change in the glacier runoff component, primarily due to uncertainties that exist in predicting glacier response to climate change. Hydrological modeling with high resolution and inclusion of relevant physical processes can produce significantly improved products that are of high value to and in demand by numerous other scientific communities. However, the value and accuracy of the output from the hydrologic model is highly dependent on the weather forcing quality. Given the considerable importance of quality weather forcing for hydrologic modeling, it is imperative to assess the suitability of multiple products by evaluating local and regional performance and accounting for uncertainty. Additional efforts should be made to improve the spatial resolution of the reanalysis through downscaling and to strategically increase the number of weather stations at high elevations and incorporate that data into weather forcing datasets. Close

• 348. [Article] Competitive Interactions and Resource Partitioning Between Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in Western Oregon

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Wildlife Society ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Competitive Interactions and Resource Partitioning Between Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in Western Oregon Author: Forsman, Eric D., Anthony, Robert G., Wiens, J. David To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Wildlife Society and published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. It can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291938-5455. Title: Competitive Interactions and Resource Partitioning Between Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in Western Oregon Author: Forsman, Eric D., Anthony, Robert G., Wiens, J. David To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Wildlife Society and published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. It can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291938-5455. Close

• 349. [Article] Potential for dispersal of the non-native parasite Myxobolus cerebralis : qualitative risk assessments for the state of Alaska and the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

  First introduced to the USA in 1958, Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite responsible for whirling disease in salmonids, has since spread across the country causing severe declines in wild trout populations ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Potential for dispersal of the non-native parasite Myxobolus cerebralis : qualitative risk assessments for the state of Alaska and the Willamette River Basin, Oregon Author: Arsan, E. Leyla First introduced to the USA in 1958, Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite responsible for whirling disease in salmonids, has since spread across the country causing severe declines in wild trout populations in the intermountain west. Recent development of risk assessment models used to assess the likelihood and consequences of exotic parasite introduction, have strengthened the process of science-based decision-making in aquatic animal health. In the case of M. cerebralis, it is necessary to use a risk assessment model with two unique segments that clearly address the distinct life stages and respective hosts of the parasite separately. The studies described examine the probability of M. cerebralis introduction and establishment for two regions: the state of Alaska, and the Willamette River basin, Oregon. The Alaska risk assessment was based on the assumption that the parasite did not already occur in the state. However, in the process of validating this assumption, we documented the first polymerase chain reaction (PCR) detection of the parasite in the state. The pathogen was identified in hatchery rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Anchorage area. Although this is the first detection of the parasite in Alaska, clinical whirling disease has never been documented in the state. To qualitatively assess the risk of further spread of M. cerebralis in Alaska, four potential routes of dissemination were examined: movement of fish by humans, natural dispersal (via migratory birds and stray anadromous salmon), recreational activities, and commercial seafood processing. This research indicates the most likely pathway for M. cerebralis transport in Alaska is human movement of fish. In the Willamette River basin, Oregon, introduction of M. cerebralis has already occurred, though establishment appears limited to a single private hatchery. Introduction in this region was considered the most likely to occur as a result of human movements of fish. Straying anadromous salmonids were also assessed and were present in higher numbers than predicted. However, they were not infected with the parasite, and thus the probability for introduction by this route is low. The probability of introduction of the parasite varies throughout the Willamette River basin. Areas with the highest probability for M. cerebralis introduction were identified as the Clackamas and Santiam River subbasins. The Clackamas River has already experienced an introduction of the parasite, has the largest concentration of hatcheries (state, federal, and private), has a popular sport fishery, and is the closest major tributary to the enormous piscivorous bird-populations in the Columbia River estuary. The Santiam subbasin has a popular sport fishery, received the highest number of stray fish in the Willamette River basin, and has the second largest concentration of hatcheries in the Willamette River basin. Unique from introduction, establishment of the parasite is dependent upon several environmental and biological factors including: water temperatures, spatial/temporal overlap of hosts, and the distribution and genetic composition of the parasite’s invertebrate host, Tubifex tubifex. The distribution, genetic composition and susceptibility of T. tubifex, were considered the most important factor in the ability of M. cerebralis to establish in both systems. Surveys of oligochaete populations were conducted in both study regions. In Alaska, T. tubifex was not detected from the southeast region and the apparent lack of appropriate tubificid hosts may prevent establishment in that part of the state. However, 4 lineages (I, III, IV, and VI) of the species were identified from southcentral Alaska. Lineage IV has not been previously been described in North America and its susceptibility to M. cerebralis was unknown. When lineage IV T. tubifex and 3 mixed-lineage (I, III, IV and VI) groups were exposed to M. cerebralis, only lineage III became infected under our experimental conditions. Thus, if the parasite were dispersed, conditions are appropriate for establishment and propagation of the parasite life cycle in southcentral Alaska, although detrimental effects on fish populations may be reduced as a result of the presence of non-susceptible lineages of T. tubifex. The probability of further establishment in this area is greatest in Ship Creek, where the abundance of susceptible T. tubifex, the presence of susceptible rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and the proximity to the known area of infection make conditions particularly appropriate. Similar to findings in Alaska, the Willamette River basin, Oregon also supports populations of susceptible T. tubifex. If the pathogen were introduced, probability of establishment is high in certain areas of the basin as all conditions are appropriate for propagation of the parasite life cycle. Tributaries to the mainstem Willamette River have the highest probability of establishment as these areas have the greatest numbers of susceptible T. tubifex. However, the abundance of resistant strains of T. tubifex could mitigate the effects of M. cerebralis if introduced. Management recommendations to reduce the likelihood of parasite dissemination are similar for Oregon and Alaska since human movement of fish and angler activities were considered the most likely routes of introduction for both regions. Based on this research, steps should also be taken to limit human movement of fish, whether by restricting carcass planting for stream enrichment in Oregon, or by prohibiting use of fish heads as bait in southcentral Alaska. The states should also allot resources to angler education and awareness of the effects of angler activity and recreation on dispersal of M. cerebralis. This could be done using a combination of brochures and signage at boat ramps describing how to prevent spread of aquatic nuisance species. Title: Potential for dispersal of the non-native parasite Myxobolus cerebralis : qualitative risk assessments for the state of Alaska and the Willamette River Basin, Oregon Author: Arsan, E. Leyla First introduced to the USA in 1958, Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite responsible for whirling disease in salmonids, has since spread across the country causing severe declines in wild trout populations in the intermountain west. Recent development of risk assessment models used to assess the likelihood and consequences of exotic parasite introduction, have strengthened the process of science-based decision-making in aquatic animal health. In the case of M. cerebralis, it is necessary to use a risk assessment model with two unique segments that clearly address the distinct life stages and respective hosts of the parasite separately. The studies described examine the probability of M. cerebralis introduction and establishment for two regions: the state of Alaska, and the Willamette River basin, Oregon. The Alaska risk assessment was based on the assumption that the parasite did not already occur in the state. However, in the process of validating this assumption, we documented the first polymerase chain reaction (PCR) detection of the parasite in the state. The pathogen was identified in hatchery rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Anchorage area. Although this is the first detection of the parasite in Alaska, clinical whirling disease has never been documented in the state. To qualitatively assess the risk of further spread of M. cerebralis in Alaska, four potential routes of dissemination were examined: movement of fish by humans, natural dispersal (via migratory birds and stray anadromous salmon), recreational activities, and commercial seafood processing. This research indicates the most likely pathway for M. cerebralis transport in Alaska is human movement of fish. In the Willamette River basin, Oregon, introduction of M. cerebralis has already occurred, though establishment appears limited to a single private hatchery. Introduction in this region was considered the most likely to occur as a result of human movements of fish. Straying anadromous salmonids were also assessed and were present in higher numbers than predicted. However, they were not infected with the parasite, and thus the probability for introduction by this route is low. The probability of introduction of the parasite varies throughout the Willamette River basin. Areas with the highest probability for M. cerebralis introduction were identified as the Clackamas and Santiam River subbasins. The Clackamas River has already experienced an introduction of the parasite, has the largest concentration of hatcheries (state, federal, and private), has a popular sport fishery, and is the closest major tributary to the enormous piscivorous bird-populations in the Columbia River estuary. The Santiam subbasin has a popular sport fishery, received the highest number of stray fish in the Willamette River basin, and has the second largest concentration of hatcheries in the Willamette River basin. Unique from introduction, establishment of the parasite is dependent upon several environmental and biological factors including: water temperatures, spatial/temporal overlap of hosts, and the distribution and genetic composition of the parasite’s invertebrate host, Tubifex tubifex. The distribution, genetic composition and susceptibility of T. tubifex, were considered the most important factor in the ability of M. cerebralis to establish in both systems. Surveys of oligochaete populations were conducted in both study regions. In Alaska, T. tubifex was not detected from the southeast region and the apparent lack of appropriate tubificid hosts may prevent establishment in that part of the state. However, 4 lineages (I, III, IV, and VI) of the species were identified from southcentral Alaska. Lineage IV has not been previously been described in North America and its susceptibility to M. cerebralis was unknown. When lineage IV T. tubifex and 3 mixed-lineage (I, III, IV and VI) groups were exposed to M. cerebralis, only lineage III became infected under our experimental conditions. Thus, if the parasite were dispersed, conditions are appropriate for establishment and propagation of the parasite life cycle in southcentral Alaska, although detrimental effects on fish populations may be reduced as a result of the presence of non-susceptible lineages of T. tubifex. The probability of further establishment in this area is greatest in Ship Creek, where the abundance of susceptible T. tubifex, the presence of susceptible rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and the proximity to the known area of infection make conditions particularly appropriate. Similar to findings in Alaska, the Willamette River basin, Oregon also supports populations of susceptible T. tubifex. If the pathogen were introduced, probability of establishment is high in certain areas of the basin as all conditions are appropriate for propagation of the parasite life cycle. Tributaries to the mainstem Willamette River have the highest probability of establishment as these areas have the greatest numbers of susceptible T. tubifex. However, the abundance of resistant strains of T. tubifex could mitigate the effects of M. cerebralis if introduced. Management recommendations to reduce the likelihood of parasite dissemination are similar for Oregon and Alaska since human movement of fish and angler activities were considered the most likely routes of introduction for both regions. Based on this research, steps should also be taken to limit human movement of fish, whether by restricting carcass planting for stream enrichment in Oregon, or by prohibiting use of fish heads as bait in southcentral Alaska. The states should also allot resources to angler education and awareness of the effects of angler activity and recreation on dispersal of M. cerebralis. This could be done using a combination of brochures and signage at boat ramps describing how to prevent spread of aquatic nuisance species. Close

• 350. [Article] Land use distributions and changes in the Willamette Valley in relation to soil characteristics

  A study was undertaken in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, to document 1971 land use patterns as well as land use change in a smaller study area in the 16 years prior, and to relate these to soil characteristics. Quantification ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Land use distributions and changes in the Willamette Valley in relation to soil characteristics Author: Wiens, John Herbert A study was undertaken in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, to document 1971 land use patterns as well as land use change in a smaller study area in the 16 years prior, and to relate these to soil characteristics. Quantification of these inter-relationships was aided by use of computer tabulation and graphic methods. Use of the data base generated and methods developed was expanded somewhat and applied to calculation and mapping of composite indices of suitabilities and limitations of soils for selected uses. Mapping of land use for 1971 and 1955 was done on color and black and white photos respectively, having a scale of about 1:62,500. To avoid creating artificial, apparent land use changes by differences in delineation and classification, mapping was done first on the higher quality 1971 color photos and then by comparison on 1955 black and white photos. Importance of various photo-interpretive factors to legend development and consistent delineation and classification became apparent and was documented. The legend utilized was, with some modification, the 1972 U.S.G.S. proposed national system for use with remote sensor data. To facilitate comparison of land use and land use change with soil survey map information, photo mapped land use information and available soil association map information was transferred to transparent mylar film over planimetric U.S.G.S. 15' topographic quadrangle sheets. This also allowed use of the square, 1000 meter Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid as reference for point sampling and geo-referenced coding of land use and soil information for computer storage. Tabulation of land use classes for the entire study area for 1971 showed the largest proportion of land to be in agricultural (53.5 percent) and forest land (38 percent) use. A further 6.5 percent was in urban use. Within the selected townships of the land use change study area the proportions were different; 65.7 percent, 14.3 percent and 17.2 percent for agricultural, forest, and urban uses respectively. Analysis of changes in land use between 1955 and 1971 in the land use change study area was done by means of transition matrices; diagonal elements represent areas of land not subject to change; off diagonal elements represent components of change. In total, between 55.9 and 72.4 percent of the land in the area studied experienced no use change, the range being due to uncertainty of classification of some land on the 1955 black and white photos. Urbanization was shown to have occurred largely at the expense of agricultural land and particularly non-irrigated cropland, pasture and orchard land uses. Some conversion of forest to urban land use (0.9 percent of the area) was documented, however. The most significant agricultural use change was a net increase in irrigated land of between 5 and 8.4 percent. A net decrease in orchard land was also recorded. Land use for 1971, not unexpectedly, showed significant concentration in certain physiographic areas and in areas with particular soil characteristics. Thus for example, urban uses were found more frequently than expected on valley-floor and stream-cut terraces, and forest land uses more frequently on foothills and mountainous uplands. Irrigated cropland was somewhat concentrated on soils in sandy, coarse loamy, coarse silty and fine silty particle size classes. Urban and cropland agriculture use classes have obviously avoided steeply sloping areas. Irrigated cropland and orchard land uses have avoided soil areas with high shrink-swell potential whereas grass seed producing croplands have not. Numerous other examples could be given. In summary, Chi-square analysis on the contigency tables of land use class and physical land characteristic classes gave highly significant values (eg. for 1971 land use/physiographic areas x ² calc = 9108.25 and x ² tab = 137.68), and thus the null hypotheses of no association between land use classification and these physical land characteristics were rejected. Three-way tabulation of soil characteristics and physiographic area classification against 1971 and 1955 land use classification allowed analysis of land use change in relation to these physical properties. The idea of composite model soils was used to provide a framework for summary of the kinds of soils subject to smallest and largest changes in particular kinds of urban, agricultural, and forest land uses. As examples, it appeared that greatest relative increases of residential and industrial uses occurred on poorly drained, fine textured, slowly permeable soils; greatest relative losses of agricultural land occurred on soils having the highest capability for agriculture, and; greatest relative increases in irrigation cropland uses occurred on soils rated good to excellent for irrigation. Other examples and trends were observed. A method for computer calculation of composite soil suitability or limitation indices for various uses was developed. Ranked indices were compared to interpretive groupings by best subjective judgement. Class frequency correlations were found to be generally good. Indices were further mapped using a computer graphics system, GRIDS. The index calculation method interfaced with a mapping capability was shown to have potential for rapid, flexible display of various soil, land use, as well as soil and land use patterns for land use planning purposes. Title: Land use distributions and changes in the Willamette Valley in relation to soil characteristics Author: Wiens, John Herbert A study was undertaken in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, to document 1971 land use patterns as well as land use change in a smaller study area in the 16 years prior, and to relate these to soil characteristics. Quantification of these inter-relationships was aided by use of computer tabulation and graphic methods. Use of the data base generated and methods developed was expanded somewhat and applied to calculation and mapping of composite indices of suitabilities and limitations of soils for selected uses. Mapping of land use for 1971 and 1955 was done on color and black and white photos respectively, having a scale of about 1:62,500. To avoid creating artificial, apparent land use changes by differences in delineation and classification, mapping was done first on the higher quality 1971 color photos and then by comparison on 1955 black and white photos. Importance of various photo-interpretive factors to legend development and consistent delineation and classification became apparent and was documented. The legend utilized was, with some modification, the 1972 U.S.G.S. proposed national system for use with remote sensor data. To facilitate comparison of land use and land use change with soil survey map information, photo mapped land use information and available soil association map information was transferred to transparent mylar film over planimetric U.S.G.S. 15' topographic quadrangle sheets. This also allowed use of the square, 1000 meter Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid as reference for point sampling and geo-referenced coding of land use and soil information for computer storage. Tabulation of land use classes for the entire study area for 1971 showed the largest proportion of land to be in agricultural (53.5 percent) and forest land (38 percent) use. A further 6.5 percent was in urban use. Within the selected townships of the land use change study area the proportions were different; 65.7 percent, 14.3 percent and 17.2 percent for agricultural, forest, and urban uses respectively. Analysis of changes in land use between 1955 and 1971 in the land use change study area was done by means of transition matrices; diagonal elements represent areas of land not subject to change; off diagonal elements represent components of change. In total, between 55.9 and 72.4 percent of the land in the area studied experienced no use change, the range being due to uncertainty of classification of some land on the 1955 black and white photos. Urbanization was shown to have occurred largely at the expense of agricultural land and particularly non-irrigated cropland, pasture and orchard land uses. Some conversion of forest to urban land use (0.9 percent of the area) was documented, however. The most significant agricultural use change was a net increase in irrigated land of between 5 and 8.4 percent. A net decrease in orchard land was also recorded. Land use for 1971, not unexpectedly, showed significant concentration in certain physiographic areas and in areas with particular soil characteristics. Thus for example, urban uses were found more frequently than expected on valley-floor and stream-cut terraces, and forest land uses more frequently on foothills and mountainous uplands. Irrigated cropland was somewhat concentrated on soils in sandy, coarse loamy, coarse silty and fine silty particle size classes. Urban and cropland agriculture use classes have obviously avoided steeply sloping areas. Irrigated cropland and orchard land uses have avoided soil areas with high shrink-swell potential whereas grass seed producing croplands have not. Numerous other examples could be given. In summary, Chi-square analysis on the contigency tables of land use class and physical land characteristic classes gave highly significant values (eg. for 1971 land use/physiographic areas x ² calc = 9108.25 and x ² tab = 137.68), and thus the null hypotheses of no association between land use classification and these physical land characteristics were rejected. Three-way tabulation of soil characteristics and physiographic area classification against 1971 and 1955 land use classification allowed analysis of land use change in relation to these physical properties. The idea of composite model soils was used to provide a framework for summary of the kinds of soils subject to smallest and largest changes in particular kinds of urban, agricultural, and forest land uses. As examples, it appeared that greatest relative increases of residential and industrial uses occurred on poorly drained, fine textured, slowly permeable soils; greatest relative losses of agricultural land occurred on soils having the highest capability for agriculture, and; greatest relative increases in irrigation cropland uses occurred on soils rated good to excellent for irrigation. Other examples and trends were observed. A method for computer calculation of composite soil suitability or limitation indices for various uses was developed. Ranked indices were compared to interpretive groupings by best subjective judgement. Class frequency correlations were found to be generally good. Indices were further mapped using a computer graphics system, GRIDS. The index calculation method interfaced with a mapping capability was shown to have potential for rapid, flexible display of various soil, land use, as well as soil and land use patterns for land use planning purposes. Close