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• 1. [Article] Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change

  Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua Year: 2014 Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to substantially affect mid-continental landscapes, this region is especially vulnerable to climate change. My research assessed the effects of climate change under business as usual (BAU) management as well as alternative management strategies. To do so, I simulated forest change in two landscapes (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan) under three climate change scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions), and four management scenarios (BAU, modified silviculture, expanded reserves, and climate suitable planting) with a spatially-explicit forest simulation model from year 2000 to year 2150. Specifically, I explored how climate change would affect relationships between tree species diversity and productivity (Chapter 2); how expanded reserves and modified silviculture may affect aboveground biomass (AGB) and species diversity (Chapter 3); how climate suitable planting may affect functional diversity, and AGB (Chapter 4); and how alternative management may affect the resistance and resilience of forests to multiple disturbances interacting with climate change (Chapter 5). Under the BAU management scenario, I found that current and low emissions climate scenarios did not affect the relationship between species diversity and productivity; however, under a high emissions climate scenario, a decline in simulated productivity was coupled with a stronger positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Under the high emissions climate scenario, overall productivity declined in both landscapes with specific species declines projected for boreal species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana). Under alternative management scenarios, I simulated a limited ability to increase tree species and functional diversity, AGB, and net primary productivity under climate change. The limits of management were especially apparent under the high emissions climate scenario. In a novel approach to measuring resilience, I plotted the recovery of both initial species composition and AGB to stochastic fire events for each simulation. This approach assessed both a general response (i.e. AGB) with a more specific response (i.e. species composition). My results suggest that climate change will reduce the resilience of northern Great Lake forest AGB and species composition and that management effects will be largely outweighed by the declines expected due to climate change. My results highlight the necessity to consider even more innovative and creative solutions under climate change (e.g., planting species from even further south than I simulated). Title: Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua Year: 2014 Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to substantially affect mid-continental landscapes, this region is especially vulnerable to climate change. My research assessed the effects of climate change under business as usual (BAU) management as well as alternative management strategies. To do so, I simulated forest change in two landscapes (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan) under three climate change scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions), and four management scenarios (BAU, modified silviculture, expanded reserves, and climate suitable planting) with a spatially-explicit forest simulation model from year 2000 to year 2150. Specifically, I explored how climate change would affect relationships between tree species diversity and productivity (Chapter 2); how expanded reserves and modified silviculture may affect aboveground biomass (AGB) and species diversity (Chapter 3); how climate suitable planting may affect functional diversity, and AGB (Chapter 4); and how alternative management may affect the resistance and resilience of forests to multiple disturbances interacting with climate change (Chapter 5). Under the BAU management scenario, I found that current and low emissions climate scenarios did not affect the relationship between species diversity and productivity; however, under a high emissions climate scenario, a decline in simulated productivity was coupled with a stronger positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Under the high emissions climate scenario, overall productivity declined in both landscapes with specific species declines projected for boreal species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana). Under alternative management scenarios, I simulated a limited ability to increase tree species and functional diversity, AGB, and net primary productivity under climate change. The limits of management were especially apparent under the high emissions climate scenario. In a novel approach to measuring resilience, I plotted the recovery of both initial species composition and AGB to stochastic fire events for each simulation. This approach assessed both a general response (i.e. AGB) with a more specific response (i.e. species composition). My results suggest that climate change will reduce the resilience of northern Great Lake forest AGB and species composition and that management effects will be largely outweighed by the declines expected due to climate change. My results highlight the necessity to consider even more innovative and creative solutions under climate change (e.g., planting species from even further south than I simulated). Close

• 2. [Article] Avian population trends within the evolving agricultural landscape of the eastern and central United States

  State-level Breeding Bird Survey (1980-1998) and U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics were used to test the hypothesis that changes in agricultural land use within the eastern and central U.S. have ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Avian population trends within the evolving agricultural landscape of the eastern and central United States Author: Murphy, Michael T. Year: 2003 State-level Breeding Bird Survey (1980-1998) and U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics were used to test the hypothesis that changes in agricultural land use within the eastern and central U.S. have driven population trends of grassland and shrub habitat birds over the past two decades. The degree to which population trends differed between grassland and shrub habitats was evaluated with respect to migratory and nesting behavior. Grassland birds declined significantly between 1980 and 1999, but, on average, shrub habitat species did not. Grassland-breeding, long-distance migrants exhibited the strongest negative trends. Most species (78%; n = 63) exhibited at least one significant association between population trends and changes in agricultural land use, and in most, land use "explained" 25-30% of the variation in population trends among states. Changes in the farmland landscape accounted for more of the interstate variability of population trends of short-distance migrants than of both long-distance migrants and residents, and that variability was greater in grassland than shrub species. Declines in the area of rangeland and cover crops were followed by population declines and increases, respectively, by many species. Increases of land in the Conservation Reserve Program had negative associations with population trends of some shrub species. The results indicate that grassland birds have declined strongly over the past two decades, and that regardless of migratory behavior or nesting habits, avian population trends are linked strongly to changes in agricultural land use within North America. Title: Avian population trends within the evolving agricultural landscape of the eastern and central United States Author: Murphy, Michael T. Year: 2003 State-level Breeding Bird Survey (1980-1998) and U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics were used to test the hypothesis that changes in agricultural land use within the eastern and central U.S. have driven population trends of grassland and shrub habitat birds over the past two decades. The degree to which population trends differed between grassland and shrub habitats was evaluated with respect to migratory and nesting behavior. Grassland birds declined significantly between 1980 and 1999, but, on average, shrub habitat species did not. Grassland-breeding, long-distance migrants exhibited the strongest negative trends. Most species (78%; n = 63) exhibited at least one significant association between population trends and changes in agricultural land use, and in most, land use "explained" 25-30% of the variation in population trends among states. Changes in the farmland landscape accounted for more of the interstate variability of population trends of short-distance migrants than of both long-distance migrants and residents, and that variability was greater in grassland than shrub species. Declines in the area of rangeland and cover crops were followed by population declines and increases, respectively, by many species. Increases of land in the Conservation Reserve Program had negative associations with population trends of some shrub species. The results indicate that grassland birds have declined strongly over the past two decades, and that regardless of migratory behavior or nesting habits, avian population trends are linked strongly to changes in agricultural land use within North America. Close

• 3. [Article] Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories

  Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories Author: Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Lucash, Melissa S., Hom, John Year: 2012 Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration. Title: Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories Author: Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Lucash, Melissa S., Hom, John Year: 2012 Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration. Close

• 4. [Article] Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity

  Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Close

• 5. [Article] The Biology of Eastern Kingbirds at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge: Survival, Reproduction, and Testosterone Secretion

  This dissertation presents the results of a study that I undertook to better understand the breeding biology of Eastern Kingbirds (hereafter, kingbirds) at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Biology of Eastern Kingbirds at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge: Survival, Reproduction, and Testosterone Secretion Author: Redmond, Lucas J. Year: 2015 This dissertation presents the results of a study that I undertook to better understand the breeding biology of Eastern Kingbirds (hereafter, kingbirds) at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon from 2003 to 2009. Kingbirds are long-distance migratory songbirds that breed across much of North America. This species is socially monogamous but, via frequent extra-pair copulations, is genetically polygamous. Kingbirds exhibit relatively high breeding site fidelity, often returning to the same tree to nest in subsequent years. Both members of a pair provide parental care, but there are often specific duties performed by both male and female kingbirds. For example, males typically perform much of the vigilant nest defense that this species is well known for and contribute, to an extent, to the feeding of nestlings. Females, on the other hand, are entirely responsible for incubating and brooding. Beginning in 2002, most adults within the population of kingbirds at Malheur had been banded with a unique combination of three colored plastic leg bands and an aluminum USFWS band. Also, as many nests were located in each year as possible, and any young that survived to fledging age were banded with a unique combination of leg bands. Considerable effort was then spent each year to locate as many banded individuals as possible, which allowed me to document adult and juvenile survival. Annual survival rates of adult male and female kingbirds in the population at Malheur did not differ and were relatively high at approximately 0.65. Juvenile survival rate was approximately 0.29, indicating that slightly less than one-third of nestlings survive the interval between fledging and their first potential breeding season. Resighting probability was high for both sexes, although higher for adult males (0.94) than for adult female (0.84). The latter finding is consistent with the higher site fidelity of males than of females. Resighting probabilities for juveniles were much lower at 0.68 and 0.40 for males and females, respectively. Again, this was expected because natal site fidelity is typically much lower than breeding site fidelity. Compared to most other reports, resighting probability and return rates of juvenile kingbirds was high, presumably because the riparian habitats where kingbirds breed at Malheur function as an ecological island surrounded by, for kingbirds, unsuitable high desert habitat. Thus, unless they disperse very long distances, the only option for juvenile kingbirds is to begin nesting on the refuge. The collection of blood samples from birds has become an increasingly common practice in ornithology. The data that can be gained from these samples allow a number of interesting questions to be asked such as understanding the genetic mating system of a species, patterns of hormone secretion, and discerning migratory pathways via stable isotope analysis. The volume of blood collected is usually small and was assumed to cause no long-term negative effects on sampled individuals. However, few studies have rigorously examined the effect of blood sampling on survival. I used a multistate mark-recapture analysis to assess the effect blood sampling on annual survival of kingbirds by combining the annual survival data described above with whether or not individuals were subjected to blood sample collection. The results of this analysis indicated that blood sampling had no effect on annual survival rates of kingbirds. Whether or not this is the case for other species remains to be seen. However, my results support the assumption that when done correctly, blood sampling has little to no long-term negative effects on birds. Comparative analyses of many bird species show that testosterone secretion exhibits fairly predictable patterns among breeding birds of different mating systems. Monogamous species reach a peak during mate attraction and the period of female fertility which is then followed by a sharp decline when young are in the nest. By contrast, males of polygynous species tend to maintain higher levels of testosterone throughout the breeding season to, presumably, maximize opportunities for acquiring additional mates. Kingbirds are socially monogamous but cryptically polygamous. However, because of high rates of extra-pair paternity, variation in reproductive success among males is much higher than what is expected for a monogamous species, and, instead, is similar to what has been reported for polygynous species. Therefore from 2005 to 2009 I measured testosterone concentrations from the blood samples collected from male kingbirds to determine the breeding season profile of testosterone secretion in kingbirds and to understand the factors that influence testosterone variation among individuals. Contrary to expected for a monogamous species, the testosterone profile of kingbirds did not exhibit the brief peak in testosterone followed by a precipitous decline. Testosterone peaked early in the season, but declined very slowly as the nest cycle progressed. I attributed this gradual decline in testosterone to the cryptically polygynous nature of the kingbird extra-pair mating system. I also found substantial variation in testosterone concentration among male kingbirds and was able to identify several factors contributing to this variation. As expected, testosterone declined as the breeding season progressed (independent of stage in nest cycle) and nest density increased, while increases in testosterone were correlated with the number of fertile females within the population. This suggests that male kingbirds were capable of modulating testosterone concentrations to both cope with an increase in conspecific density, but also to ready themselves for times when extra-pair copulations were more likely. Title: The Biology of Eastern Kingbirds at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge: Survival, Reproduction, and Testosterone Secretion Author: Redmond, Lucas J. Year: 2015 This dissertation presents the results of a study that I undertook to better understand the breeding biology of Eastern Kingbirds (hereafter, kingbirds) at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon from 2003 to 2009. Kingbirds are long-distance migratory songbirds that breed across much of North America. This species is socially monogamous but, via frequent extra-pair copulations, is genetically polygamous. Kingbirds exhibit relatively high breeding site fidelity, often returning to the same tree to nest in subsequent years. Both members of a pair provide parental care, but there are often specific duties performed by both male and female kingbirds. For example, males typically perform much of the vigilant nest defense that this species is well known for and contribute, to an extent, to the feeding of nestlings. Females, on the other hand, are entirely responsible for incubating and brooding. Beginning in 2002, most adults within the population of kingbirds at Malheur had been banded with a unique combination of three colored plastic leg bands and an aluminum USFWS band. Also, as many nests were located in each year as possible, and any young that survived to fledging age were banded with a unique combination of leg bands. Considerable effort was then spent each year to locate as many banded individuals as possible, which allowed me to document adult and juvenile survival. Annual survival rates of adult male and female kingbirds in the population at Malheur did not differ and were relatively high at approximately 0.65. Juvenile survival rate was approximately 0.29, indicating that slightly less than one-third of nestlings survive the interval between fledging and their first potential breeding season. Resighting probability was high for both sexes, although higher for adult males (0.94) than for adult female (0.84). The latter finding is consistent with the higher site fidelity of males than of females. Resighting probabilities for juveniles were much lower at 0.68 and 0.40 for males and females, respectively. Again, this was expected because natal site fidelity is typically much lower than breeding site fidelity. Compared to most other reports, resighting probability and return rates of juvenile kingbirds was high, presumably because the riparian habitats where kingbirds breed at Malheur function as an ecological island surrounded by, for kingbirds, unsuitable high desert habitat. Thus, unless they disperse very long distances, the only option for juvenile kingbirds is to begin nesting on the refuge. The collection of blood samples from birds has become an increasingly common practice in ornithology. The data that can be gained from these samples allow a number of interesting questions to be asked such as understanding the genetic mating system of a species, patterns of hormone secretion, and discerning migratory pathways via stable isotope analysis. The volume of blood collected is usually small and was assumed to cause no long-term negative effects on sampled individuals. However, few studies have rigorously examined the effect of blood sampling on survival. I used a multistate mark-recapture analysis to assess the effect blood sampling on annual survival of kingbirds by combining the annual survival data described above with whether or not individuals were subjected to blood sample collection. The results of this analysis indicated that blood sampling had no effect on annual survival rates of kingbirds. Whether or not this is the case for other species remains to be seen. However, my results support the assumption that when done correctly, blood sampling has little to no long-term negative effects on birds. Comparative analyses of many bird species show that testosterone secretion exhibits fairly predictable patterns among breeding birds of different mating systems. Monogamous species reach a peak during mate attraction and the period of female fertility which is then followed by a sharp decline when young are in the nest. By contrast, males of polygynous species tend to maintain higher levels of testosterone throughout the breeding season to, presumably, maximize opportunities for acquiring additional mates. Kingbirds are socially monogamous but cryptically polygamous. However, because of high rates of extra-pair paternity, variation in reproductive success among males is much higher than what is expected for a monogamous species, and, instead, is similar to what has been reported for polygynous species. Therefore from 2005 to 2009 I measured testosterone concentrations from the blood samples collected from male kingbirds to determine the breeding season profile of testosterone secretion in kingbirds and to understand the factors that influence testosterone variation among individuals. Contrary to expected for a monogamous species, the testosterone profile of kingbirds did not exhibit the brief peak in testosterone followed by a precipitous decline. Testosterone peaked early in the season, but declined very slowly as the nest cycle progressed. I attributed this gradual decline in testosterone to the cryptically polygynous nature of the kingbird extra-pair mating system. I also found substantial variation in testosterone concentration among male kingbirds and was able to identify several factors contributing to this variation. As expected, testosterone declined as the breeding season progressed (independent of stage in nest cycle) and nest density increased, while increases in testosterone were correlated with the number of fertile females within the population. This suggests that male kingbirds were capable of modulating testosterone concentrations to both cope with an increase in conspecific density, but also to ready themselves for times when extra-pair copulations were more likely. Close

• 6. [Article] Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate

  Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Author: Hixon, Mark A., Gregory, Stanley V., Robinson, W. Douglas, Baker, C. Scott, Batchelder, Harold P., Epps, Clinton, Garcia, Tiffany S., Haig, Susan M., Letelier, Ricardo M., Lytle, David A., Menge, Bruce A., Miller, Jeffery C., Noakes, David L.G., Peterson, William T., Rice, James M., Rumrill, Steven S., Schreck, Carl B., Suryan, Robert M., Sytsma, Mark D., White, Angelicque E. Year: 2010 Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and coastal ocean. Oregon is one of the most ecologically diverse states in the country. The state’s robust biodiversity, some of which is already threatened or endangered -- inhabits complex and dynamic ecosystems that we have only begun to understand, let alone examine in terms of climate change.It is clear that the abundance and distribution of species are shifting already and will shift more rapidly as habitats on land, in freshwater, and in the sea are altered due to increasing temperatures and related environmental changes. It remains to be seen if past changes are all tied to global climate change or if they are a result of some other variability, but they represent a proxy for how species may shift in a warmer climate. Among the observed species changes: Insects are moving in from the south of Oregon, frogs are reproducing earlier in the year and land birds are shifting their distributions northward and migrating earlier. Freshwater fish are losing their cool-water habitats. In the marine environment, algal blooms have increased (figure 11) and the highly predatory Humboldt squid have shifted their distribution from subtropical and tropical regions, making an appearance off the coast of Oregon in the last few years. In a warmer climate, plant and animal species may have to shift upward or northward on land or deeper at sea for survival. Rare or endangered species may become less abundant or extinct; insect pests, invasive species and harmful algal blooms may become more abundant. Declines in the abundance of species may be caused directly by physiological stress related to changes in temperature, water availability, and other environmental shifts, and/or indirectly by habitat degradation and negative interactions with species that are benefited by climate change (diseases, parasites, predators, and competitors). Understanding the responses of Oregon’s fish and wildlife to climate change will require a better understanding of smaller organisms and insects and ocean species. Knowledge of ecological interactions will be crucial for understanding the related effects of climate change (increased predation or competition, for example). Management and natural resource polices that protect intact ecosystems are a tool for adaptation; native species can live and migrate to these safe refugia. Title: Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Author: Hixon, Mark A., Gregory, Stanley V., Robinson, W. Douglas, Baker, C. Scott, Batchelder, Harold P., Epps, Clinton, Garcia, Tiffany S., Haig, Susan M., Letelier, Ricardo M., Lytle, David A., Menge, Bruce A., Miller, Jeffery C., Noakes, David L.G., Peterson, William T., Rice, James M., Rumrill, Steven S., Schreck, Carl B., Suryan, Robert M., Sytsma, Mark D., White, Angelicque E. Year: 2010 Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and coastal ocean. Oregon is one of the most ecologically diverse states in the country. The state’s robust biodiversity, some of which is already threatened or endangered -- inhabits complex and dynamic ecosystems that we have only begun to understand, let alone examine in terms of climate change.It is clear that the abundance and distribution of species are shifting already and will shift more rapidly as habitats on land, in freshwater, and in the sea are altered due to increasing temperatures and related environmental changes. It remains to be seen if past changes are all tied to global climate change or if they are a result of some other variability, but they represent a proxy for how species may shift in a warmer climate. Among the observed species changes: Insects are moving in from the south of Oregon, frogs are reproducing earlier in the year and land birds are shifting their distributions northward and migrating earlier. Freshwater fish are losing their cool-water habitats. In the marine environment, algal blooms have increased (figure 11) and the highly predatory Humboldt squid have shifted their distribution from subtropical and tropical regions, making an appearance off the coast of Oregon in the last few years. In a warmer climate, plant and animal species may have to shift upward or northward on land or deeper at sea for survival. Rare or endangered species may become less abundant or extinct; insect pests, invasive species and harmful algal blooms may become more abundant. Declines in the abundance of species may be caused directly by physiological stress related to changes in temperature, water availability, and other environmental shifts, and/or indirectly by habitat degradation and negative interactions with species that are benefited by climate change (diseases, parasites, predators, and competitors). Understanding the responses of Oregon’s fish and wildlife to climate change will require a better understanding of smaller organisms and insects and ocean species. Knowledge of ecological interactions will be crucial for understanding the related effects of climate change (increased predation or competition, for example). Management and natural resource polices that protect intact ecosystems are a tool for adaptation; native species can live and migrate to these safe refugia. Close

• 7. [Article] Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning

  Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning Author: Halsey, Shiloh Michael, Zielinski, William J., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus). Objectives To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable for reintroduction. Methods Using camera survey data, we modeled the association between bobcat presence and environmental features using a classification tree. We applied this model to a spatial analysis of fisher habitat and identified reintroduction areas in the southern Washington Cascade Range. Results The classification tree predicted bobcat detection based on elevation and mean tree diameter. The final model identified fisher reintroduction locations primarily in or near existing wilderness areas. Fisher habitat areas identified considering both habitat and predation risk differed from those identified without considering predation. Conclusion Our spatial approach is unique among fisher reintroduction plans by accounting for both resource requirements and risk of predation. It can be used as a template for future reintroduction efforts in other regions and for other species. Using similar models to refine population management and reintroduction should improve the probability of successful population establishment and stability. Title: Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning Author: Halsey, Shiloh Michael, Zielinski, William J., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus). Objectives To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable for reintroduction. Methods Using camera survey data, we modeled the association between bobcat presence and environmental features using a classification tree. We applied this model to a spatial analysis of fisher habitat and identified reintroduction areas in the southern Washington Cascade Range. Results The classification tree predicted bobcat detection based on elevation and mean tree diameter. The final model identified fisher reintroduction locations primarily in or near existing wilderness areas. Fisher habitat areas identified considering both habitat and predation risk differed from those identified without considering predation. Conclusion Our spatial approach is unique among fisher reintroduction plans by accounting for both resource requirements and risk of predation. It can be used as a template for future reintroduction efforts in other regions and for other species. Using similar models to refine population management and reintroduction should improve the probability of successful population establishment and stability. Close

• 8. [Article] Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity

  Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Close

• 9. [Article] Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA)

  Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA) Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts. Objectives: We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests. Methods: We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas. Results: Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience. Conclusions: Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems. Title: Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA) Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts. Objectives: We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests. Methods: We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas. Results: Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience. Conclusions: Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems. Close

• 10. [Article] The Effects of Hypoxia and Temperature on Developing Embryos of the Annual Killifish Austrofundulus limnaeus

  Little is known about the physiology or biochemistry of hypoxia (reduced levels of oxygen) tolerance during development in vertebrate embryos. In most species, relatively brief bouts of severe hypoxia ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Effects of Hypoxia and Temperature on Developing Embryos of the Annual Killifish Austrofundulus limnaeus Author: Anderson, Skye N. Year: 2012 Little is known about the physiology or biochemistry of hypoxia (reduced levels of oxygen) tolerance during development in vertebrate embryos. In most species, relatively brief bouts of severe hypoxia are lethal or teratogenic. An exception to such hypoxia intolerance is the annual killifish Austrofundulus limnaeus, in which populations persist in hypoxic environments. This species inhabits seasonal ponds in Venezuela, surviving through the dry season in the form of diapausing embryos. Embedded in the pond sediment, embryos of A. limnaeus are routinely exposed to hypoxia and anoxia (lack of oxygen) as part of their normal development. Here, we exposed embryos to various levels of PO2 (21.2, 15.6, 10.8, 8.4, 6.1, 3.6, and 2.2 kPa) at two different temperatures (25°C and 30°C) to study the effects on developmental rate and heart rate. We also measured enzyme activity and quantified DNA content of individual embryos to compare differences among the varying levels of hypoxia and temperature. Hypoxia caused a significant decline in developmental rate and caused a stage-specific decline in heart rate. Higher temperature caused an increase in the developmental rate for those embryos incubated at PO2 of 6.1 kPa and greater. Temperature had a negative effect by hindering development below a PO2 of 6.1 kPa. Total embryonic DNA content was reduced at low partial pressures (15.6, 10.8, 8.4, 6.1, 3.6, and 2.2 kPa) of oxygen. Citrate synthase, lactate dehydrogenase, and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase were all down-regulated indicating a complete lack of enzymatic metabolic compensation to combat reduced oxygen levels. Title: The Effects of Hypoxia and Temperature on Developing Embryos of the Annual Killifish Austrofundulus limnaeus Author: Anderson, Skye N. Year: 2012 Little is known about the physiology or biochemistry of hypoxia (reduced levels of oxygen) tolerance during development in vertebrate embryos. In most species, relatively brief bouts of severe hypoxia are lethal or teratogenic. An exception to such hypoxia intolerance is the annual killifish Austrofundulus limnaeus, in which populations persist in hypoxic environments. This species inhabits seasonal ponds in Venezuela, surviving through the dry season in the form of diapausing embryos. Embedded in the pond sediment, embryos of A. limnaeus are routinely exposed to hypoxia and anoxia (lack of oxygen) as part of their normal development. Here, we exposed embryos to various levels of PO2 (21.2, 15.6, 10.8, 8.4, 6.1, 3.6, and 2.2 kPa) at two different temperatures (25°C and 30°C) to study the effects on developmental rate and heart rate. We also measured enzyme activity and quantified DNA content of individual embryos to compare differences among the varying levels of hypoxia and temperature. Hypoxia caused a significant decline in developmental rate and caused a stage-specific decline in heart rate. Higher temperature caused an increase in the developmental rate for those embryos incubated at PO2 of 6.1 kPa and greater. Temperature had a negative effect by hindering development below a PO2 of 6.1 kPa. Total embryonic DNA content was reduced at low partial pressures (15.6, 10.8, 8.4, 6.1, 3.6, and 2.2 kPa) of oxygen. Citrate synthase, lactate dehydrogenase, and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase were all down-regulated indicating a complete lack of enzymatic metabolic compensation to combat reduced oxygen levels. Close