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• 521. [Article] Bayesian Methods for Comparing Species Physiological and Ecological Response Curves

  Many ecological questions require information on species' optimal conditions or critical limits along environmental gradients. These attributes can be compared to answer questions on niche partitioning, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bayesian Methods for Comparing Species Physiological and Ecological Response Curves Author: Ashcroft, Michael B., Casanova-Katny, Angélica, Mengersen, Kerrie, Rosenstiel, Todd N., Turnbull, Johanna D., Wasley, Jane, Waterman, Melinda J., Zúñiga, Gustavo E., Robinson, Sharon A. Year: 2016 Many ecological questions require information on species' optimal conditions or critical limits along environmental gradients. These attributes can be compared to answer questions on niche partitioning, species coexistence and niche conservatism. However, these comparisons are unconvincing when existing methods do not quantify the uncertainty in the attributes or rely on assumptions about the shape of species' responses to the environmental gradient. The aim of this study was to develop a model to quantify the uncertainty in the attributes of species response curves and allow them to be tested for substantive differences without making assumptions about the shape of the responses. We developed a model that used Bayesian penalised splines to produce and compare response curves for any two given species. These splines allow the data to determine the shape of the response curves rather than making a priori assumptions. The models were implemented using the R2OpenBUGS package for R, which uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation to repetitively fit alternative response curves to the data. As each iteration produces a different curve that varies in optima, niche breadth and limits, the model estimates the uncertainty in each of these attributes and the probability that the two curves are different. The models were tested using two datasets of mosses from Antarctica. Both datasets had a high degree of scatter, which is typical of ecological research. This noise resulted in considerable uncertainty in the optima and limits of species response curves, but substantive differences were found. Schistidium antarcticiwas found to inhabit wetter habitats than Ceratodon purpureus, and Polytrichastrum alpinum had a lower optimal temperature for photosynthesis than Chorisodontium aciphyllum under high light conditions. Our study highlights the importance of considering uncertainty in physiological optima and other attributes of species response curves. We found that apparent differences in optima of 7.5 °C were not necessarily substantive when dealing with noisy ecological data, and it is necessary to consider the uncertainty in attributes when comparing the curves for different species. The model introduced here could increase the robustness of research on niche partitioning, species coexistence and niche conservatism. Title: Bayesian Methods for Comparing Species Physiological and Ecological Response Curves Author: Ashcroft, Michael B., Casanova-Katny, Angélica, Mengersen, Kerrie, Rosenstiel, Todd N., Turnbull, Johanna D., Wasley, Jane, Waterman, Melinda J., Zúñiga, Gustavo E., Robinson, Sharon A. Year: 2016 Many ecological questions require information on species' optimal conditions or critical limits along environmental gradients. These attributes can be compared to answer questions on niche partitioning, species coexistence and niche conservatism. However, these comparisons are unconvincing when existing methods do not quantify the uncertainty in the attributes or rely on assumptions about the shape of species' responses to the environmental gradient. The aim of this study was to develop a model to quantify the uncertainty in the attributes of species response curves and allow them to be tested for substantive differences without making assumptions about the shape of the responses. We developed a model that used Bayesian penalised splines to produce and compare response curves for any two given species. These splines allow the data to determine the shape of the response curves rather than making a priori assumptions. The models were implemented using the R2OpenBUGS package for R, which uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation to repetitively fit alternative response curves to the data. As each iteration produces a different curve that varies in optima, niche breadth and limits, the model estimates the uncertainty in each of these attributes and the probability that the two curves are different. The models were tested using two datasets of mosses from Antarctica. Both datasets had a high degree of scatter, which is typical of ecological research. This noise resulted in considerable uncertainty in the optima and limits of species response curves, but substantive differences were found. Schistidium antarcticiwas found to inhabit wetter habitats than Ceratodon purpureus, and Polytrichastrum alpinum had a lower optimal temperature for photosynthesis than Chorisodontium aciphyllum under high light conditions. Our study highlights the importance of considering uncertainty in physiological optima and other attributes of species response curves. We found that apparent differences in optima of 7.5 °C were not necessarily substantive when dealing with noisy ecological data, and it is necessary to consider the uncertainty in attributes when comparing the curves for different species. The model introduced here could increase the robustness of research on niche partitioning, species coexistence and niche conservatism. Close

• 522. [Article] Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) Adoption

  As time goes by, the idea of having unlimited energy resources becomes less and less feasible. The population of our world and the rate of consumption of resources increase each year. The future has us ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) Adoption Author: Amini, Mitra, Singla, Puniti, Lui, Jonathan, Kensel, Craig, Lethlean, Joseph Year: 2012 As time goes by, the idea of having unlimited energy resources becomes less and less feasible. The population of our world and the rate of consumption of resources increase each year. The future has us looking at alternative energy sources that will drive the need for better methods of extraction of natural energy’s like wind, water, solar, geothermal heat, and other various types of natural resources. There is a need to focus on developing more energy efficiency of current products to lessen the demand on current energy sources. Primarily powered by electricity, one of the areas to focus on energy efficiency is the heat pump water heater (HPWH). In the Northwest states (Washington, Montana, Oregon, Idaho) about sixty to sixty five percent of households use electricity as the primary source of power. Heating water can consume anywhere from fifteen to twenty five percent of the home total energy consumption. The engineering behind the HPWH doesn’t generate its own heat while running. Rather the HPWH uses the ambient air surrounding the water heater and functions in revers of a refrigeration or air conditioning system. According to Energy star: “HPWH takes the heat from surrounding air and transfers it to water in an enclosed tank. A low-pressure liquid refrigerant is vaporized in the heat pump's evaporator and passed into the compressor. As the pressure of the refrigerant increases, so does its temperature. The heated refrigerant runs through a condenser coil within the storage tank, transferring heat to the water stored there. As the refrigerant delivers its heat to the water, it cools and condenses, and then passes through an expansion valve where the pressure is reduced and the cycle starts over.” Research Question: Why has the HPWH had such a slow or low adoption rate in society? Research Objective: There are factors and sub factors that are affecting the adoption of the Heat Pump Water Heater. The factors we have identified are economic, politic, social, technical and environmental. The sub-factors (elements) will be constructed at a later time and into the HDM model to find the causes that affect the adoption of heat pump water heater. Title: Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) Adoption Author: Amini, Mitra, Singla, Puniti, Lui, Jonathan, Kensel, Craig, Lethlean, Joseph Year: 2012 As time goes by, the idea of having unlimited energy resources becomes less and less feasible. The population of our world and the rate of consumption of resources increase each year. The future has us looking at alternative energy sources that will drive the need for better methods of extraction of natural energy’s like wind, water, solar, geothermal heat, and other various types of natural resources. There is a need to focus on developing more energy efficiency of current products to lessen the demand on current energy sources. Primarily powered by electricity, one of the areas to focus on energy efficiency is the heat pump water heater (HPWH). In the Northwest states (Washington, Montana, Oregon, Idaho) about sixty to sixty five percent of households use electricity as the primary source of power. Heating water can consume anywhere from fifteen to twenty five percent of the home total energy consumption. The engineering behind the HPWH doesn’t generate its own heat while running. Rather the HPWH uses the ambient air surrounding the water heater and functions in revers of a refrigeration or air conditioning system. According to Energy star: “HPWH takes the heat from surrounding air and transfers it to water in an enclosed tank. A low-pressure liquid refrigerant is vaporized in the heat pump's evaporator and passed into the compressor. As the pressure of the refrigerant increases, so does its temperature. The heated refrigerant runs through a condenser coil within the storage tank, transferring heat to the water stored there. As the refrigerant delivers its heat to the water, it cools and condenses, and then passes through an expansion valve where the pressure is reduced and the cycle starts over.” Research Question: Why has the HPWH had such a slow or low adoption rate in society? Research Objective: There are factors and sub factors that are affecting the adoption of the Heat Pump Water Heater. The factors we have identified are economic, politic, social, technical and environmental. The sub-factors (elements) will be constructed at a later time and into the HDM model to find the causes that affect the adoption of heat pump water heater. Close

• 523. [Article] Defining the Terroir of the Columbia Gorge Wine Region, Oregon and Washington, USA Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

  The Columbia Gorge Wine Region (CGWR) is an emerging wine producing area that extends for about 100km along the Columbia River in Oregon and Washington State in which the number of vineyards, wineries ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Defining the Terroir of the Columbia Gorge Wine Region, Oregon and Washington, USA Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Author: Whitney, Hilary Year: 2015 The Columbia Gorge Wine Region (CGWR) is an emerging wine producing area that extends for about 100km along the Columbia River in Oregon and Washington State in which the number of vineyards, wineries and physical terroir conditions have yet to be defined. To better understand the physical factors affecting Oregon and Washington wine, this project analyzes climate, topography, geology and soil at vineyards in the CGWR. This was accomplished using Geographic Information Systems, existing earth science databases and field work. The region, which includes the Columbia Gorge American Viticulture Area (AVA) and the southwest portion of the Columbia Valley AVA, is home to 82 vineyards, 513 hectares (1268 acres), 37 wineries and 41 different varieties of Vitus Vinifera. Vineyards range in elevation from 29 to 548 meters (95 to 1799 feet). Vintner responses to a grower's survey suggest that twenty-eight grape varieties account for 98% of the estimated grape variety acreage, with Pinot Noir being the most widely planted grape variety in both AVAs. The boundaries of each climatic regime were mapped based on 1981-2010 PRISM data, the Winkler Index (Amerine and Winkler, 1944) updated by Jones et al. (2010) and climatic maturity groupings designed for Oregon (Jones et al., 2002; Jones et al., 2010). Three Winkler climate regimes are represented within the CGWR, including regions Ia, Ib, and II from the Winkler Index (Jones et al., 2010). The diversity in regimes allows for a diversity of grape varieties to be planted within the regime. The average growing season temperatures and growing degree days, respectively, from 1981-2010 calculated for vineyards ranges from 13.7°C (55.7°F) to 17.7°C (63.9°F) and 871 for °C (1567 for °F) to 1664 for °C (2994 for °F) respectively. 58% of the vineyards are characterized in an intermediate climatic regime, 29% are within a cool climatic regime, 9% are within a warm climatic regime and 4% are on the boundaries between a cool, intermediate or warm regime. 80% of the vineyards are within Regions Ia and Ib characterized by the Winkler Index, and 20% are within Region II. The growing degrees days calculated for the CGWR are similar those measured in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, Burgundy, France, Umpqua Valley AVA in Oregon and Bordeaux wine region in France. All of the soils currently being used to grow grapes are well-drained and within a xeric moisture regime, which are favorable conditions for viticulture. 30 soil series are represented among the vineyard sites, with the Chemawa Series (Underwood Mountain) and Walla Walla Series (eastern portions) being the dominant soil series used to grow grapes. Majority of the soils contain a silt loam texture. Soil Survey data for Oregon and Washington suggest that loess is extensive in the CGWR, with 46.5% of the total vineyard acreage planted on soils formed in loess. The Missoula Floods also greatly influenced the texture and age of the soil in this region, with skeletal textures being close to the Columbia River. Other common geological deposits at vineyards in the CGWR include, Quaternary Basalt (19.6%), Missoula Flood deposits (9.1%), The Dalles Formation (8.0%), Columbia River Basalt Group (7.5%), Pliocene Basalt (3.0%), Quaternary Surficial deposits (3.0%), lahars (2.3%) and Quaternary Basaltic Andesite and Andesite (0.9%). Common geological deposits, soil series, and climate conditions at vineyard sites vary spatially in the region, and therefore it is suggested that future work focus on separating the region into separate climatic sub-AVA regimes to better reflect the diversity in terroir conditions. Title: Defining the Terroir of the Columbia Gorge Wine Region, Oregon and Washington, USA Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Author: Whitney, Hilary Year: 2015 The Columbia Gorge Wine Region (CGWR) is an emerging wine producing area that extends for about 100km along the Columbia River in Oregon and Washington State in which the number of vineyards, wineries and physical terroir conditions have yet to be defined. To better understand the physical factors affecting Oregon and Washington wine, this project analyzes climate, topography, geology and soil at vineyards in the CGWR. This was accomplished using Geographic Information Systems, existing earth science databases and field work. The region, which includes the Columbia Gorge American Viticulture Area (AVA) and the southwest portion of the Columbia Valley AVA, is home to 82 vineyards, 513 hectares (1268 acres), 37 wineries and 41 different varieties of Vitus Vinifera. Vineyards range in elevation from 29 to 548 meters (95 to 1799 feet). Vintner responses to a grower's survey suggest that twenty-eight grape varieties account for 98% of the estimated grape variety acreage, with Pinot Noir being the most widely planted grape variety in both AVAs. The boundaries of each climatic regime were mapped based on 1981-2010 PRISM data, the Winkler Index (Amerine and Winkler, 1944) updated by Jones et al. (2010) and climatic maturity groupings designed for Oregon (Jones et al., 2002; Jones et al., 2010). Three Winkler climate regimes are represented within the CGWR, including regions Ia, Ib, and II from the Winkler Index (Jones et al., 2010). The diversity in regimes allows for a diversity of grape varieties to be planted within the regime. The average growing season temperatures and growing degree days, respectively, from 1981-2010 calculated for vineyards ranges from 13.7°C (55.7°F) to 17.7°C (63.9°F) and 871 for °C (1567 for °F) to 1664 for °C (2994 for °F) respectively. 58% of the vineyards are characterized in an intermediate climatic regime, 29% are within a cool climatic regime, 9% are within a warm climatic regime and 4% are on the boundaries between a cool, intermediate or warm regime. 80% of the vineyards are within Regions Ia and Ib characterized by the Winkler Index, and 20% are within Region II. The growing degrees days calculated for the CGWR are similar those measured in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, Burgundy, France, Umpqua Valley AVA in Oregon and Bordeaux wine region in France. All of the soils currently being used to grow grapes are well-drained and within a xeric moisture regime, which are favorable conditions for viticulture. 30 soil series are represented among the vineyard sites, with the Chemawa Series (Underwood Mountain) and Walla Walla Series (eastern portions) being the dominant soil series used to grow grapes. Majority of the soils contain a silt loam texture. Soil Survey data for Oregon and Washington suggest that loess is extensive in the CGWR, with 46.5% of the total vineyard acreage planted on soils formed in loess. The Missoula Floods also greatly influenced the texture and age of the soil in this region, with skeletal textures being close to the Columbia River. Other common geological deposits at vineyards in the CGWR include, Quaternary Basalt (19.6%), Missoula Flood deposits (9.1%), The Dalles Formation (8.0%), Columbia River Basalt Group (7.5%), Pliocene Basalt (3.0%), Quaternary Surficial deposits (3.0%), lahars (2.3%) and Quaternary Basaltic Andesite and Andesite (0.9%). Common geological deposits, soil series, and climate conditions at vineyard sites vary spatially in the region, and therefore it is suggested that future work focus on separating the region into separate climatic sub-AVA regimes to better reflect the diversity in terroir conditions. Close

• 524. [Article] Aspects of the physiology and diseases of the North American elk

  Several aspects of the physiology and diseases of the North American elk (Cervus canadensis) were investigated, toward the goal of uncovering influences responsible for declining productivity among some ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Aspects of the physiology and diseases of the North American elk Author: Weber, Yvonne Bernard Year: 1973 Several aspects of the physiology and diseases of the North American elk (Cervus canadensis) were investigated, toward the goal of uncovering influences responsible for declining productivity among some elk herds in Oregon. A newly developed drug, Etorphine, together with its antagonistic companion, Dip renorphine, was used to immobilize elk. Substantial differences were found in the amounts required and animal responses dependent upon age, physical condition and life history. Whole blood samples were obtained from 60 living elk for hematological studies. The parameters examined included hemoglobin levels, packed cell volume, erythrocyte and leukocyte counts, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, mean corpuscular volume, and the percentage distribution of neutrophils, band cells, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, and basophils. Respiration rate, heart rate, and body temperature were measured for nine drugged elk. Sickling of erythrocytes was found in the blood of two female elk. Serum was separated from the blood of 72 living elk and 22 recently shot elk of mixed ages and sexes. Serum proteins were differentiated by electrophoretic analysis. Values obtained for total protein, albumin, total globulin, albumin/globulin ratio, and for the alpha1, alpha2, beta and gamma globulins, were grouped and summarized to facilitate comparisons based on age and sex, as well as between living and dead, and captive and free-living elk. Total serum protein concentrations were markedly higher in the older age groups of both captive and freeliving elk. An apparent tendency to higher albumin levels was found among males of this species. Values for serum concentrations of sodium, potassium, calcium, inorganic phosphorus, blood urea nitrogen, Chlorides, Cholesterol, glucose, direct bilirubin, total bilirubin, creatinine, and uric acid, as well as activity levels of alkaline phosphatase, lactic dehydrogenase, and serum glutamic oxalacetic transaminase were obtained. Sodium/ potassium and calCium/phosphorus ratios were calculated. Urine speciments were obtained from seven elk and analyzed for the presence of glucose. Young elk, both captive and free-living, had higher serum values for sodium, calcium, inorganic phosphorus, glucose and alkaline phosphatase than did the older age group. Mature elk, both captive and free-living, had higher serum values for calcium/phosphorus ratio, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, uric acid and serum glutamic oxalacetic transaminase than did those under two years of age. Differences in serum Chemistry were also found between captive and free-living elk. Serological tests on sera from 67 elk tested were negative for brucellosis and bluetongue virus. Tests for leptospirosis on sera from 29 elk by the macroscopic agglutination method were all negative. Of 38 free-living elk tested for leptospirosis by the microscopic agglutination test, 16 showed positive reactions to one or more serotypes at a significant titer of 1:100 or greater. Another eight showed positive reactions at the 1:50 level. This is believed to the first report of serological reactivity to leptospirosis reported for elk. Internal organs from 39 elk were examined for the presence of adult helminths, and fecal pellets from 82 elk were examined for the presence of parasite eggs. Lethal numbers of Dictyocaulus viviparus were recovered from the respiratory organs of two yearling male elk. Two nematodes of the Trichostrongylus axei and Ostertagia circumcincta, were found that have not been previously reported from Roosevelt elk. Fascioloides magna and Oesophagostomum venulosum were also found. The common winter tick, Dermacentor albipictus and Ixodes pacificus were collected from Roosevelt elk. This latter species has not been previously reported in elk. Increased gannna globulin values and concomitant decreases in albumin were observed in tick-infested elk. Title: Aspects of the physiology and diseases of the North American elk Author: Weber, Yvonne Bernard Year: 1973 Several aspects of the physiology and diseases of the North American elk (Cervus canadensis) were investigated, toward the goal of uncovering influences responsible for declining productivity among some elk herds in Oregon. A newly developed drug, Etorphine, together with its antagonistic companion, Dip renorphine, was used to immobilize elk. Substantial differences were found in the amounts required and animal responses dependent upon age, physical condition and life history. Whole blood samples were obtained from 60 living elk for hematological studies. The parameters examined included hemoglobin levels, packed cell volume, erythrocyte and leukocyte counts, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, mean corpuscular volume, and the percentage distribution of neutrophils, band cells, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, and basophils. Respiration rate, heart rate, and body temperature were measured for nine drugged elk. Sickling of erythrocytes was found in the blood of two female elk. Serum was separated from the blood of 72 living elk and 22 recently shot elk of mixed ages and sexes. Serum proteins were differentiated by electrophoretic analysis. Values obtained for total protein, albumin, total globulin, albumin/globulin ratio, and for the alpha1, alpha2, beta and gamma globulins, were grouped and summarized to facilitate comparisons based on age and sex, as well as between living and dead, and captive and free-living elk. Total serum protein concentrations were markedly higher in the older age groups of both captive and freeliving elk. An apparent tendency to higher albumin levels was found among males of this species. Values for serum concentrations of sodium, potassium, calcium, inorganic phosphorus, blood urea nitrogen, Chlorides, Cholesterol, glucose, direct bilirubin, total bilirubin, creatinine, and uric acid, as well as activity levels of alkaline phosphatase, lactic dehydrogenase, and serum glutamic oxalacetic transaminase were obtained. Sodium/ potassium and calCium/phosphorus ratios were calculated. Urine speciments were obtained from seven elk and analyzed for the presence of glucose. Young elk, both captive and free-living, had higher serum values for sodium, calcium, inorganic phosphorus, glucose and alkaline phosphatase than did the older age group. Mature elk, both captive and free-living, had higher serum values for calcium/phosphorus ratio, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, uric acid and serum glutamic oxalacetic transaminase than did those under two years of age. Differences in serum Chemistry were also found between captive and free-living elk. Serological tests on sera from 67 elk tested were negative for brucellosis and bluetongue virus. Tests for leptospirosis on sera from 29 elk by the macroscopic agglutination method were all negative. Of 38 free-living elk tested for leptospirosis by the microscopic agglutination test, 16 showed positive reactions to one or more serotypes at a significant titer of 1:100 or greater. Another eight showed positive reactions at the 1:50 level. This is believed to the first report of serological reactivity to leptospirosis reported for elk. Internal organs from 39 elk were examined for the presence of adult helminths, and fecal pellets from 82 elk were examined for the presence of parasite eggs. Lethal numbers of Dictyocaulus viviparus were recovered from the respiratory organs of two yearling male elk. Two nematodes of the Trichostrongylus axei and Ostertagia circumcincta, were found that have not been previously reported from Roosevelt elk. Fascioloides magna and Oesophagostomum venulosum were also found. The common winter tick, Dermacentor albipictus and Ixodes pacificus were collected from Roosevelt elk. This latter species has not been previously reported in elk. Increased gannna globulin values and concomitant decreases in albumin were observed in tick-infested elk. Close

• 525. [Article] Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

  The states in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska region share interconnected transportation networks for people, goods, and services that support the regional economy, mobility, and human safety. Regional ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska Author: MacArthur, John, Mote, Philip, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Ideker, Jason, Lee, Ming Year: 2012 The states in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska region share interconnected transportation networks for people, goods, and services that support the regional economy, mobility, and human safety. Regional weather has and will continue to affect the physical condition and serviceability of these networks, yet the nature of climate changes and their potential impacts on the regional transportation system and its use are very poorly understood. The world’s leading climate scientists, such as the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, have reached consensus that global climate changes are being observed and will continue into the future, particularly increasing temperatures. Given this fact, the widely diverse topography, climate regimes, and localized variability of impacts within the region complicate efforts to understand and plan for adapting to the potential impacts of climate change on the regional transportation system. The rising costs of building and maintaining reliable transportation infrastructure place tremendous pressure on transportation planners, engineers, researchers and policy makers to deliver resilient transportation systems and maximize return on investment. As such, there is an urgent need to synthesize information to characterize the regional impacts of climate change to support the development of economical and resilient adaptation strategies. Climate impacts are posing continued challenges for state departments of transportation (DOT). Changing weather patterns and their associated physical, financial, and social impacts are affecting or will affect the way transportation professionals finance, plan, design construct, operate, and maintain multimodal transportation infrastructure. Many state transportation agency procedures and practices were developed without full consideration of the likely impacts of climate change. For example, more frequent, high intensity precipitation events and associated floods may lead to expensive and unpredictable catastrophic failures of roads and bridges designed with outdated hydrologic data. DOTs could experience hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure damage that potentially could be avoided with more robust data collection, planning, and design tools/methods for managing risks. Likewise, climate-related socioeconomic changes may also be occurring, but transportation planners are currently ill-equipped to analyze them and may be delivering transportation projects that do not address future needs. Decisions made today on the planning and design of the regional transportation system will affect resiliency of the system as region tries to adapt to climate change. Making well informed and thoughtful decisions now will help avoid costly modifications and disruptions to operations in the future. This report is built on several significant reports and projects that have been recently published. In 2008, the Transportation Research Board released the Special Report 290: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation, which primarily focused on the consequences of climate change for U.S. transportation infrastructure and operations. The report also offers recommendations for both research and actions that can be taken to prepare for climate change. A similar study released by U.S. Department of Transportation, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, explores the vulnerabilities of transportation systems in the Gulf Coast region to potential changes in weather patterns and related impacts, as well as the effect of natural land subsidence and other environmental factors in the region. The area examined by the study includes 48 contiguous counties in four states, running from Galveston, Texas, to Mobile, Alabama. In addition to these national reports, there are a variety studies that look at the scenarios of future climate for the Pacific Northwest. Most notably are the Climate Impacts Group’s Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute’s Oregon Climate Assessment Report, which developed climate change scenarios for Oregon and Washington State. The objective of this research project was to conduct a preliminary vulnerability assessment of the risks and vulnerabilities climate change poses to the surface transportation infrastructure system in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska region. The report: synthesizes data to characterize the region’s climate, identifies potential impacts on the regional transportation system, identifies critical infrastructure vulnerable to climate change impacts, and provides recommendations for more detailed analysis and research needs as appropriate to support managing risks and opportunities to adapt multimodal surface transportation infrastructure to climate change impacts. Transportation professionals and policy makers can use the results of this report to build a breadth of knowledge and information on regional climate change impacts, understanding vulnerabilities of the transportation system and begin creating more quantitative risk assessment models. Title: Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska Author: MacArthur, John, Mote, Philip, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Ideker, Jason, Lee, Ming Year: 2012 The states in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska region share interconnected transportation networks for people, goods, and services that support the regional economy, mobility, and human safety. Regional weather has and will continue to affect the physical condition and serviceability of these networks, yet the nature of climate changes and their potential impacts on the regional transportation system and its use are very poorly understood. The world’s leading climate scientists, such as the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, have reached consensus that global climate changes are being observed and will continue into the future, particularly increasing temperatures. Given this fact, the widely diverse topography, climate regimes, and localized variability of impacts within the region complicate efforts to understand and plan for adapting to the potential impacts of climate change on the regional transportation system. The rising costs of building and maintaining reliable transportation infrastructure place tremendous pressure on transportation planners, engineers, researchers and policy makers to deliver resilient transportation systems and maximize return on investment. As such, there is an urgent need to synthesize information to characterize the regional impacts of climate change to support the development of economical and resilient adaptation strategies. Climate impacts are posing continued challenges for state departments of transportation (DOT). Changing weather patterns and their associated physical, financial, and social impacts are affecting or will affect the way transportation professionals finance, plan, design construct, operate, and maintain multimodal transportation infrastructure. Many state transportation agency procedures and practices were developed without full consideration of the likely impacts of climate change. For example, more frequent, high intensity precipitation events and associated floods may lead to expensive and unpredictable catastrophic failures of roads and bridges designed with outdated hydrologic data. DOTs could experience hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure damage that potentially could be avoided with more robust data collection, planning, and design tools/methods for managing risks. Likewise, climate-related socioeconomic changes may also be occurring, but transportation planners are currently ill-equipped to analyze them and may be delivering transportation projects that do not address future needs. Decisions made today on the planning and design of the regional transportation system will affect resiliency of the system as region tries to adapt to climate change. Making well informed and thoughtful decisions now will help avoid costly modifications and disruptions to operations in the future. This report is built on several significant reports and projects that have been recently published. In 2008, the Transportation Research Board released the Special Report 290: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation, which primarily focused on the consequences of climate change for U.S. transportation infrastructure and operations. The report also offers recommendations for both research and actions that can be taken to prepare for climate change. A similar study released by U.S. Department of Transportation, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, explores the vulnerabilities of transportation systems in the Gulf Coast region to potential changes in weather patterns and related impacts, as well as the effect of natural land subsidence and other environmental factors in the region. The area examined by the study includes 48 contiguous counties in four states, running from Galveston, Texas, to Mobile, Alabama. In addition to these national reports, there are a variety studies that look at the scenarios of future climate for the Pacific Northwest. Most notably are the Climate Impacts Group’s Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute’s Oregon Climate Assessment Report, which developed climate change scenarios for Oregon and Washington State. The objective of this research project was to conduct a preliminary vulnerability assessment of the risks and vulnerabilities climate change poses to the surface transportation infrastructure system in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska region. The report: synthesizes data to characterize the region’s climate, identifies potential impacts on the regional transportation system, identifies critical infrastructure vulnerable to climate change impacts, and provides recommendations for more detailed analysis and research needs as appropriate to support managing risks and opportunities to adapt multimodal surface transportation infrastructure to climate change impacts. Transportation professionals and policy makers can use the results of this report to build a breadth of knowledge and information on regional climate change impacts, understanding vulnerabilities of the transportation system and begin creating more quantitative risk assessment models. Close

• 526. [Article] Water Purification Technologies: From a Residential Scale Perspective

  The Problem: Small communities in many parts of the world do not have fresh water, especially after natural disasters. Many Puerto Rico local governments did not investigate and maintain local water purification ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Water Purification Technologies: From a Residential Scale Perspective Author: Nguyen, Tin, Owaishiz, Abdalilah, Ryan, Mark Year: 2017 The Problem: Small communities in many parts of the world do not have fresh water, especially after natural disasters. Many Puerto Rico local governments did not investigate and maintain local water purification and pipe systems or possible superfund sites in preparation of natural disasters because they do not have enough staff due to Territory and EPA budget cuts. Local governments in Puerto Rico need to continue to react quickly because a majority of regional communities who have had community water service have not been able to restore their water systems. According to Vox, “there have also been reports of water contaminated raw sewage and at least 74 suspected cases and two deaths from leptospirosis, a deadly animal-borne disease that can also live in water” [31]. If people in Puerto Rico keep drinking water from dirty water pump systems due to the shortage of drinking water many more people in Puerto Rico can become seriously ill and may lead to death. Local governments in Puerto Rico need to reach out to the EPA and CDCP to provide effective strategies of water purification and help citizens by providing clean water technology to examine water that contains virus and contamination. The United States government needs to collaborate with Puerto Rico to resolve the environment issues occurring. According to Vox, “there are 18 superfund sites in Puerto Rico, including the Dorado Groundwater Contamination Site in the north-central part of the island where some people were getting their water. The site is part of a drinking water system that serves 67,000 people” [31]. According to Peter Lopez, the newly appointed head of EPA Region II, “From my experience, communities that are struggling financially are going to be hardest pressed to respond” [31]. This is a challenge when local governments do not receive help from FEMA to have funding for the healthcare fund, superfund site investigation, maintenance of pump systems, and delivery cost for thousands of bottles of water to reach Puerto Ricans hands. People have to use this unsafe water and they try to boil it but the taste is unacceptable. According to Oren and Atabey for USA today, Ortiz worries that the bad-tasting, blue-colored water that runs in her pipes is unsafe. She and her aunt use it only to clean clothes and dishes, and to shower. They had tried boiling it, but “it tasted weird,” Ortiz said. Bottled water can be hard to find and gets expensive, said her aunt, Maria Ortiz, 66. “If you are lucky to find some, a pack of 24 water bottles that used to be $3.99 now is about $7.50,” she said [32]. More and more Puerto Ricans are having a shortage of water delivered to them due to the lack of staffing. Our Focus: Evaluate water purification technologies in communities (at the residential level) of Puerto Rico and other Island Nations which have recently been devastated by hurricanes and are suffering greatly from lack of fresh water. Introduction: Less than 1% of the water on this planet is fresh water suitable for human use and most of that is inaccessible being frozen in polar ice caps. Climate change furthers this discrepancy when global temperatures rise. Climate becomes more radical increasing climatic extremes and causing more natural disasters. Contamination is a great risk to our water; especially surface water where pathogenic bacteria and microbes flourish and dissolved dirt can make it turbid. This is a problem on a massive global scale, but locally it is not challenging to solve. Providing clean water and educating people locally at the residential level is relatively easy. Title: Water Purification Technologies: From a Residential Scale Perspective Author: Nguyen, Tin, Owaishiz, Abdalilah, Ryan, Mark Year: 2017 The Problem: Small communities in many parts of the world do not have fresh water, especially after natural disasters. Many Puerto Rico local governments did not investigate and maintain local water purification and pipe systems or possible superfund sites in preparation of natural disasters because they do not have enough staff due to Territory and EPA budget cuts. Local governments in Puerto Rico need to continue to react quickly because a majority of regional communities who have had community water service have not been able to restore their water systems. According to Vox, “there have also been reports of water contaminated raw sewage and at least 74 suspected cases and two deaths from leptospirosis, a deadly animal-borne disease that can also live in water” [31]. If people in Puerto Rico keep drinking water from dirty water pump systems due to the shortage of drinking water many more people in Puerto Rico can become seriously ill and may lead to death. Local governments in Puerto Rico need to reach out to the EPA and CDCP to provide effective strategies of water purification and help citizens by providing clean water technology to examine water that contains virus and contamination. The United States government needs to collaborate with Puerto Rico to resolve the environment issues occurring. According to Vox, “there are 18 superfund sites in Puerto Rico, including the Dorado Groundwater Contamination Site in the north-central part of the island where some people were getting their water. The site is part of a drinking water system that serves 67,000 people” [31]. According to Peter Lopez, the newly appointed head of EPA Region II, “From my experience, communities that are struggling financially are going to be hardest pressed to respond” [31]. This is a challenge when local governments do not receive help from FEMA to have funding for the healthcare fund, superfund site investigation, maintenance of pump systems, and delivery cost for thousands of bottles of water to reach Puerto Ricans hands. People have to use this unsafe water and they try to boil it but the taste is unacceptable. According to Oren and Atabey for USA today, Ortiz worries that the bad-tasting, blue-colored water that runs in her pipes is unsafe. She and her aunt use it only to clean clothes and dishes, and to shower. They had tried boiling it, but “it tasted weird,” Ortiz said. Bottled water can be hard to find and gets expensive, said her aunt, Maria Ortiz, 66. “If you are lucky to find some, a pack of 24 water bottles that used to be $3.99 now is about $7.50,” she said [32]. More and more Puerto Ricans are having a shortage of water delivered to them due to the lack of staffing. Our Focus: Evaluate water purification technologies in communities (at the residential level) of Puerto Rico and other Island Nations which have recently been devastated by hurricanes and are suffering greatly from lack of fresh water. Introduction: Less than 1% of the water on this planet is fresh water suitable for human use and most of that is inaccessible being frozen in polar ice caps. Climate change furthers this discrepancy when global temperatures rise. Climate becomes more radical increasing climatic extremes and causing more natural disasters. Contamination is a great risk to our water; especially surface water where pathogenic bacteria and microbes flourish and dissolved dirt can make it turbid. This is a problem on a massive global scale, but locally it is not challenging to solve. Providing clean water and educating people locally at the residential level is relatively easy. Close

• 527. [Article] Understanding the Importance of Intermittently Fragmented Stream Habitat for Isolated Westslope Cutthroat Trout (<i>Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi</i>) in the Colville National Forest, Washington

  Climate change and anthropogenic effects have vastly reduced Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, WCT) habitat throughout their range, including the Colville National Forest in northeastern ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Understanding the Importance of Intermittently Fragmented Stream Habitat for Isolated Westslope Cutthroat Trout (<i>Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi</i>) in the Colville National Forest, Washington Author: Carpenter, Forrest Michael Year: 2016 Climate change and anthropogenic effects have vastly reduced Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, WCT) habitat throughout their range, including the Colville National Forest in northeastern Washington where this study was conducted. Many native salmonid populations have declined in abundance since the early 1900s due to a variety of climate- and human-driven forces. Westslope Cutthroat Trout are especially sensitive to habitat loss or degradation and to climate change. Together, climate change, habitat degradation, and non-native salmonid invasions are contributing to increasingly fragmented WCT populations. Ongoing and predicted future warming trends are expected to further fragment these populations and isolate them in headwater stream reaches, with populations in the spatial margins of their distributions facing greater risk. Native salmonid populations are often separated or isolated by natural or artificial upstream migration barriers (i.e., waterfalls, culverts, etc.). Prior to continuing conservation and management actions targeting WCT, it is imperative to understand habitat requirements of this keystone species in fragmented areas. Field survey data were collected in the summer of 2015 on channel geomorphic characteristics and WCT presence/absence in 26 streams located in the Colville National Forest. A clear spatial separation was observed between Eastern Brook Trout (Salvenius fontinalis, EBT) and WCT above four culvert road crossings and the habitat in both of these areas was compared statistically to identify explicit differences. This dataset was also analyzed using logistic regression modeling to determine the best habitat predictors of the presence of isolated WCT populations existing upstream of these crossing. In general, stream habitat in the Middle and South Forks of Mill Creek had low large substrate, high fine sediments, and exhibited pool-riffle channel morphology. Pool habitat supporting isolated WCT was significantly smaller, in terms of volume and surface area, than pool habitat supporting sympatric populations of WCT and EBT, largely due to the headwater nature of channel units supporting isolated WCT populations. Additionally, due to the extreme drought conditions during 2015, stream flow was substantially diminished in the study area causing these reaches to be highly fragmented and largely disconnected from the rest of the stream channel. Fine sediments were generally higher in headwater reaches supporting isolated WCT, including in pools and riffles, which was unexpected, mainly because they exist above sediment delivery points in the longitudinal extent of the system. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the presence of isolated WCT populations was primarily positively associated with an increase in large wood and boulders, and negatively associated with increasing gravel, bedrock, habitat unit length, depth, and width (Significant x2, R2=0.174, misclassification rate = 14.9%, α=0.05). The final model correctly predicted 37.5% of isolated WCT presence observations and 96.5% of the WCT/EBT presence observations significantly better than by chance alone (k=0.81). This model, in fact, may be useful in identifying limited habitat due to the fragmented nature of the channel units supporting IWCT. Large wood and boulders were positively correlated to WCT presence, likely because both are important in the formation of pools and cascades. Channel unit length, width, depth, active channel width as well as gravel and bedrock substrates, were all negatively associated with WCT presence. This suggests that isolated WCT are primarily associated with small headwater cascades with complex shelter, which may provide greater thermal and predation refuge compared to shallow glide or large pool habitats. Future model analysis should include additional habitat variables such as water temperature, stream gradient, and species interactions to strengthen the prediction of Westslope Cutthroat Trout presence. Overall, I concluded that differences in stream habitat above and below blocking culverts are not driving Westslope Cutthroat Trout distributions in the study area due to confounding factors such as the presence of problematic barriers and small sample size. I also conclude that future conservation and management decisions specific to WCT should prioritize complex cascade habitat in headwater stream reaches because of the type and quantity of habitat they may provide, especially during severe drought or low flow conditions. Title: Understanding the Importance of Intermittently Fragmented Stream Habitat for Isolated Westslope Cutthroat Trout (<i>Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi</i>) in the Colville National Forest, Washington Author: Carpenter, Forrest Michael Year: 2016 Climate change and anthropogenic effects have vastly reduced Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, WCT) habitat throughout their range, including the Colville National Forest in northeastern Washington where this study was conducted. Many native salmonid populations have declined in abundance since the early 1900s due to a variety of climate- and human-driven forces. Westslope Cutthroat Trout are especially sensitive to habitat loss or degradation and to climate change. Together, climate change, habitat degradation, and non-native salmonid invasions are contributing to increasingly fragmented WCT populations. Ongoing and predicted future warming trends are expected to further fragment these populations and isolate them in headwater stream reaches, with populations in the spatial margins of their distributions facing greater risk. Native salmonid populations are often separated or isolated by natural or artificial upstream migration barriers (i.e., waterfalls, culverts, etc.). Prior to continuing conservation and management actions targeting WCT, it is imperative to understand habitat requirements of this keystone species in fragmented areas. Field survey data were collected in the summer of 2015 on channel geomorphic characteristics and WCT presence/absence in 26 streams located in the Colville National Forest. A clear spatial separation was observed between Eastern Brook Trout (Salvenius fontinalis, EBT) and WCT above four culvert road crossings and the habitat in both of these areas was compared statistically to identify explicit differences. This dataset was also analyzed using logistic regression modeling to determine the best habitat predictors of the presence of isolated WCT populations existing upstream of these crossing. In general, stream habitat in the Middle and South Forks of Mill Creek had low large substrate, high fine sediments, and exhibited pool-riffle channel morphology. Pool habitat supporting isolated WCT was significantly smaller, in terms of volume and surface area, than pool habitat supporting sympatric populations of WCT and EBT, largely due to the headwater nature of channel units supporting isolated WCT populations. Additionally, due to the extreme drought conditions during 2015, stream flow was substantially diminished in the study area causing these reaches to be highly fragmented and largely disconnected from the rest of the stream channel. Fine sediments were generally higher in headwater reaches supporting isolated WCT, including in pools and riffles, which was unexpected, mainly because they exist above sediment delivery points in the longitudinal extent of the system. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the presence of isolated WCT populations was primarily positively associated with an increase in large wood and boulders, and negatively associated with increasing gravel, bedrock, habitat unit length, depth, and width (Significant x2, R2=0.174, misclassification rate = 14.9%, α=0.05). The final model correctly predicted 37.5% of isolated WCT presence observations and 96.5% of the WCT/EBT presence observations significantly better than by chance alone (k=0.81). This model, in fact, may be useful in identifying limited habitat due to the fragmented nature of the channel units supporting IWCT. Large wood and boulders were positively correlated to WCT presence, likely because both are important in the formation of pools and cascades. Channel unit length, width, depth, active channel width as well as gravel and bedrock substrates, were all negatively associated with WCT presence. This suggests that isolated WCT are primarily associated with small headwater cascades with complex shelter, which may provide greater thermal and predation refuge compared to shallow glide or large pool habitats. Future model analysis should include additional habitat variables such as water temperature, stream gradient, and species interactions to strengthen the prediction of Westslope Cutthroat Trout presence. Overall, I concluded that differences in stream habitat above and below blocking culverts are not driving Westslope Cutthroat Trout distributions in the study area due to confounding factors such as the presence of problematic barriers and small sample size. I also conclude that future conservation and management decisions specific to WCT should prioritize complex cascade habitat in headwater stream reaches because of the type and quantity of habitat they may provide, especially during severe drought or low flow conditions. Close

• 528. [Article] Climate Change, Its Effect on Migration Patterns of the Cackling Goose and White-Fronted Goose in the Willamette Valley, and Implications for Goose Management

  This thesis considers the question of whether climate change is affecting the migration patterns of geese in the Pacific Flyway, specifically cackling geese (Branta hutchinsii minima) and Pacific white-fronted ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change, Its Effect on Migration Patterns of the Cackling Goose and White-Fronted Goose in the Willamette Valley, and Implications for Goose Management Author: Warren, Kelly Year: 2010 This thesis considers the question of whether climate change is affecting the migration patterns of geese in the Pacific Flyway, specifically cackling geese (Branta hutchinsii minima) and Pacific white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis). Ancillary questions that are considered are as follows: • If global warming is affecting these species, what is the nature of the effects? • How are the changes affecting the human environment and what can be done about these effects? In 1994, the majority of the cackler population in the Pacific Flyway began to winter in Oregon’s Willamette Valley rather than in their historical wintering areas in California’s Central Valley. In recent years, the Pacific white-fronted goose has shown a change in behavior similar to that of cacklers just before their major shift. The reasons for this shift have not been clear, though climate change, agricultural shifts, or competition with other species were thought to be possible causes. Analyses of historical breeding and wintering surveys, bird band data, harvest data, agricultural data, and climate and weather data were undertaken in the course of this thesis to see if the cause or causes could be identified. The results showed that climate and weather data, i.e. an increase in average annual temperature coupled with occasional severe winters, most closely correlated with the cacklers’ shift northward. The data comparison revealed that there is a direct relationship between cacklers and a warming shift seen on the wintering grounds. There also was a secondary correlation between the northward shift and recent changes in agricultural crops in the Willamette Valley. Substantially less data are available for white-fronts, and the relationship between their recent migration changes and climate and/or other factors is much less clear. The following recommendations for management and further study are aimed at more completely understanding the scope and causes of migration shifts and formulating well-founded management plans for geese in the Pacific Flyway: • Continue research to determine if climate change is causing changes in goose population numbers and behavior. • Expand breeding ground flight surveys to include cacklers and habitat preference to learn how habitat change on the Y-K Delta is altering cackler behavior and breeding success. • Expand radio transmitter studies and collar programs for cacklers in Oregon and Washington to verify northerly wintering shifts. • Expand collar programs for cacklers wintering in the Willamette Valley to determine if the population is continuing to shift northward. • Expand banding programs for white-fronted geese to gather more data about migration patterns. • Develop models that will allow researchers and managers to correlate migration behavior with various environmental factors including climate change in order to: 1) determine which factors are causing migration changes in specific waterfowl populations and 2) allow managers to make changes to management plans in advance of rapid changes. • Inform the public about how it can assist in collar surveys or volunteer for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). This will enable USFWS to have more concrete data and give the public an opportunity gain a greater understanding of geese and goose management. • Expand research on urban cackling geese to determine the nature and scope of their effect on the human environment and to devise management strategies. • Research energetics in migrating geese to determine whether the shift in migration patterns has its basis in climate change. • Increase data exchange and coordination among agencies. • Formulate and implement plans at the city and county levels to manage growing numbers of geese in urban areas. • Recognize and anticipate the possibility that goose populations may move into new wintering areas and formulate plans for management of those species. • Implement low cost techniques, such as more liberal bag limits and seasons, hazing, etc., to assist agricultural landowners in decreasing goose-related crop damage. Title: Climate Change, Its Effect on Migration Patterns of the Cackling Goose and White-Fronted Goose in the Willamette Valley, and Implications for Goose Management Author: Warren, Kelly Year: 2010 This thesis considers the question of whether climate change is affecting the migration patterns of geese in the Pacific Flyway, specifically cackling geese (Branta hutchinsii minima) and Pacific white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis). Ancillary questions that are considered are as follows: • If global warming is affecting these species, what is the nature of the effects? • How are the changes affecting the human environment and what can be done about these effects? In 1994, the majority of the cackler population in the Pacific Flyway began to winter in Oregon’s Willamette Valley rather than in their historical wintering areas in California’s Central Valley. In recent years, the Pacific white-fronted goose has shown a change in behavior similar to that of cacklers just before their major shift. The reasons for this shift have not been clear, though climate change, agricultural shifts, or competition with other species were thought to be possible causes. Analyses of historical breeding and wintering surveys, bird band data, harvest data, agricultural data, and climate and weather data were undertaken in the course of this thesis to see if the cause or causes could be identified. The results showed that climate and weather data, i.e. an increase in average annual temperature coupled with occasional severe winters, most closely correlated with the cacklers’ shift northward. The data comparison revealed that there is a direct relationship between cacklers and a warming shift seen on the wintering grounds. There also was a secondary correlation between the northward shift and recent changes in agricultural crops in the Willamette Valley. Substantially less data are available for white-fronts, and the relationship between their recent migration changes and climate and/or other factors is much less clear. The following recommendations for management and further study are aimed at more completely understanding the scope and causes of migration shifts and formulating well-founded management plans for geese in the Pacific Flyway: • Continue research to determine if climate change is causing changes in goose population numbers and behavior. • Expand breeding ground flight surveys to include cacklers and habitat preference to learn how habitat change on the Y-K Delta is altering cackler behavior and breeding success. • Expand radio transmitter studies and collar programs for cacklers in Oregon and Washington to verify northerly wintering shifts. • Expand collar programs for cacklers wintering in the Willamette Valley to determine if the population is continuing to shift northward. • Expand banding programs for white-fronted geese to gather more data about migration patterns. • Develop models that will allow researchers and managers to correlate migration behavior with various environmental factors including climate change in order to: 1) determine which factors are causing migration changes in specific waterfowl populations and 2) allow managers to make changes to management plans in advance of rapid changes. • Inform the public about how it can assist in collar surveys or volunteer for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). This will enable USFWS to have more concrete data and give the public an opportunity gain a greater understanding of geese and goose management. • Expand research on urban cackling geese to determine the nature and scope of their effect on the human environment and to devise management strategies. • Research energetics in migrating geese to determine whether the shift in migration patterns has its basis in climate change. • Increase data exchange and coordination among agencies. • Formulate and implement plans at the city and county levels to manage growing numbers of geese in urban areas. • Recognize and anticipate the possibility that goose populations may move into new wintering areas and formulate plans for management of those species. • Implement low cost techniques, such as more liberal bag limits and seasons, hazing, etc., to assist agricultural landowners in decreasing goose-related crop damage. Close

• 529. [Article] Examination of Human Impacts on the Biodiversity and Ecology of Lichen and Moss Communities

  Globally, more than half of the world's population is living in urban areas and it is well accepted that human activities (e.g. climate warming, pollution, landscape homogenization) pose a multitude of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Examination of Human Impacts on the Biodiversity and Ecology of Lichen and Moss Communities Author: Prather, Hannah Marie Year: 2017 Globally, more than half of the world's population is living in urban areas and it is well accepted that human activities (e.g. climate warming, pollution, landscape homogenization) pose a multitude of threats to ecosystems. Largely, human-related impacts on biodiversity will hold consequences for larger ecological processes and research looking into human impacts on sensitive epiphytic lichen and moss communities is an emerging area of research. While seemingly small, lichen and moss communities exist on nearly every terrestrial ecosystem on Earth and contribute to whole-system processes (e.g. hydrology, mineral cycling, food web energetics) worldwide. To further examine human impacts on epiphytic communities, I conducted three studies examining urbanization and climate warming effects on epiphytic lichen and moss biodiversity and ecology. In the first study I revisited a historic urban lichen community study to assess how urban lichen communities have responded to regional air quality changes occurring over the last nearly two decades. I further investigated, for the first time, the biodiversity of urban tree canopy-dwelling lichen communities in a native coniferous tree species, Pseudotsuga menziesii. I found that urban parks and forested areas harbor a species rich community of lichens epiphytes. Further, I found evidence for the distinct homogenization of urban epiphytic lichen communities, suggesting that expanding beyond simplistic measures of biodiversity to consider community composition and functional biodiversity may be necessary when assessing the ecology and potential ecosystem services of epiphyte communites within urbanizing landscapes. Next, I present the first tall tree canopy study across a regional gradient of urbanization near Portland, Oregon, USA. I found that tall tree canopy epiphyte communities change dramatically along gradients of increasing urbanization, most notably by the transitioning of species functional groups from sensitive, oligotrophic species to a dominance of urban-tolerant, eutrophic species. The implications these dramatic shifts in species composition have on essential PNW ecosystem processes, like N-fixation and canopy microclimate regulation, is still not well understood and is difficult to formally evaluate. However, I find strong evidence that native conifer trees in urban areas may provide a diversity of essential ecosystem services, including providing stratified habitat for epiphyte communities and their associated micro arthropod communities and the scavenging of atmospherically deposited nutrients. Future work is needed to understand how losses in canopy N fixation and species with large biomass (both lichens and bryophytes) will affect nutrient and hydrologic cycling in the PNW region, which continue to undergo rapid growth and urbanization. The final chapter investigates the impacts of passive warming by Open Top Chambers (OTCs) in moss-dominated ecosystems located on the Western Antarctic Peninsula, an area of increasing climate warming. I compared species-specific temperature effects, moss canopy morphology, sexual reproductive effort and invertebrate communities between OTC and control moss communities for two moss species, Polytrichastrum alpinum and Sanionia uncinata, that make up over 65% of the terrestrial vegetative cover in the area. I found distinct reproductive shifts in P. alpinum under passive warming compared to controls. Moss communities under warming also had substantially larger total invertebrate communities than those in control moss communities, and invertebrate communities were significantly affected by moss species and moss reproductive effort. Further, substantial species-specific thermal differences among contiguous patches of these dominant moss species were revealed. These results suggest that continued warming will differentially impact the reproductive output of Antarctic moss species and is likely to dramatically alter terrestrial ecosystems dynamics from the bottom up. This combined work provides a diverse contribution to the field of epiphyte ecology and biology by providing new insights on how human impacts will affect epiphyte lichen and moss communities across diverse ecosystems, in light of a rapidly changing planet. Title: Examination of Human Impacts on the Biodiversity and Ecology of Lichen and Moss Communities Author: Prather, Hannah Marie Year: 2017 Globally, more than half of the world's population is living in urban areas and it is well accepted that human activities (e.g. climate warming, pollution, landscape homogenization) pose a multitude of threats to ecosystems. Largely, human-related impacts on biodiversity will hold consequences for larger ecological processes and research looking into human impacts on sensitive epiphytic lichen and moss communities is an emerging area of research. While seemingly small, lichen and moss communities exist on nearly every terrestrial ecosystem on Earth and contribute to whole-system processes (e.g. hydrology, mineral cycling, food web energetics) worldwide. To further examine human impacts on epiphytic communities, I conducted three studies examining urbanization and climate warming effects on epiphytic lichen and moss biodiversity and ecology. In the first study I revisited a historic urban lichen community study to assess how urban lichen communities have responded to regional air quality changes occurring over the last nearly two decades. I further investigated, for the first time, the biodiversity of urban tree canopy-dwelling lichen communities in a native coniferous tree species, Pseudotsuga menziesii. I found that urban parks and forested areas harbor a species rich community of lichens epiphytes. Further, I found evidence for the distinct homogenization of urban epiphytic lichen communities, suggesting that expanding beyond simplistic measures of biodiversity to consider community composition and functional biodiversity may be necessary when assessing the ecology and potential ecosystem services of epiphyte communites within urbanizing landscapes. Next, I present the first tall tree canopy study across a regional gradient of urbanization near Portland, Oregon, USA. I found that tall tree canopy epiphyte communities change dramatically along gradients of increasing urbanization, most notably by the transitioning of species functional groups from sensitive, oligotrophic species to a dominance of urban-tolerant, eutrophic species. The implications these dramatic shifts in species composition have on essential PNW ecosystem processes, like N-fixation and canopy microclimate regulation, is still not well understood and is difficult to formally evaluate. However, I find strong evidence that native conifer trees in urban areas may provide a diversity of essential ecosystem services, including providing stratified habitat for epiphyte communities and their associated micro arthropod communities and the scavenging of atmospherically deposited nutrients. Future work is needed to understand how losses in canopy N fixation and species with large biomass (both lichens and bryophytes) will affect nutrient and hydrologic cycling in the PNW region, which continue to undergo rapid growth and urbanization. The final chapter investigates the impacts of passive warming by Open Top Chambers (OTCs) in moss-dominated ecosystems located on the Western Antarctic Peninsula, an area of increasing climate warming. I compared species-specific temperature effects, moss canopy morphology, sexual reproductive effort and invertebrate communities between OTC and control moss communities for two moss species, Polytrichastrum alpinum and Sanionia uncinata, that make up over 65% of the terrestrial vegetative cover in the area. I found distinct reproductive shifts in P. alpinum under passive warming compared to controls. Moss communities under warming also had substantially larger total invertebrate communities than those in control moss communities, and invertebrate communities were significantly affected by moss species and moss reproductive effort. Further, substantial species-specific thermal differences among contiguous patches of these dominant moss species were revealed. These results suggest that continued warming will differentially impact the reproductive output of Antarctic moss species and is likely to dramatically alter terrestrial ecosystems dynamics from the bottom up. This combined work provides a diverse contribution to the field of epiphyte ecology and biology by providing new insights on how human impacts will affect epiphyte lichen and moss communities across diverse ecosystems, in light of a rapidly changing planet. Close

• 530. [Article] Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality

  Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality Author: Turner, Brian Christopher Year: 2017 Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native and previously established non-native predators, can prevent establishment, limit habitat use, and reduce abundance of non-native species. Management efforts by humans using methods designed to cause mass mortality (e.g., trapping, biocide applications) can reduce or eradicate non-native populations. However, the impacts of predator and human induced mortality may be mitigated by the behavior or population-level responses of a given non-native species. My dissertation examined the responses of non-native aquatic species to the risk of predation by novel (i.e., no previous exposure) predators in the recipient community and indicators of potential compensatory responses by non-native populations to increased mortality resulting from removal efforts. My dissertation addresses four primary questions. 1) Can first generation, naïve invaders recognize and defend against predators found within the region of invasion through the expression of inducible defenses? 2) Can the overcompensatory potential of a population be predicted though examinations of intraspecific interactions of individuals from the population? 3) What is the relationship between removal effort outcome (i.e., successful or unsuccessful reduction of the target population) and compensatory population responses? 4) Is there a relationship between characteristics of removal efforts that are typically available to managers (e.g., target area size, target area connectivity, removal methodology) and compensatory population responses that could indicate the relative likelihood of compensation resulting from removal efforts? An invading species should be more likely to establish if it can successfully identify and defend against predators in the recipient range, such as through the expression of inducible defenses. Inducible defenses are behavioral or physiological changes that reduce an organism's susceptibility to predation. Through a series of laboratory experiments, I tested whether inducible defenses, in the form of increased burrowing depth, may have benefited the early stage of invasion of Nuttallia obscurata (purple varnish clam), an established Northeast Pacific invader. Specimens of N. obscurata were collected from introduced populations in the Northeast Pacific and from a native population in Japan. The clams were exposed to chemical and physical cues from Northeast Pacific crab predators, including the native Metacarcinus magister (Dungeness crab), an abundant and frequent predator of N. obscurata. While introduced N. obscurata increased their burrowing depth in the physical presence of M. magister, clams collected from their native range showed no such response. This lack of increased burrowing depth by naïve clams in response to a predator native to the newly invaded range, but a significant increase in depth for clams from populations established in the range suggests that while inducible defenses likely did not contribute to the initial establishment of N. obscurata in the Northeast Pacific, they may contribute to their continued persistence and expansion in their introduced range. Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when strong negative density-dependent interactions are reduced through increased mortality within a population, resulting in an increase in the population's recruitment rate sufficient to increase the population's overall abundance. Increases in a population's recruitment rate can result from reduced cannibalism of juveniles resulting in lower mortality of new recruits, from increased adult reproductive output, which increases the number of potential recruits, or from reductions in size and/or age at maturity of the unharvested population, which increases the number of reproductive individuals. I predicted the overcompensatory potential of a population of Carcinus maenas (European green crab) in Bodega Harbor, California, using a series of laboratory and field experiments examining intraspecific pressures of adults on juveniles in the population. This measure of intraspecific pressure was used to predict the overcompensatory potential of the population in response to increased mortality from ongoing removal efforts. This prediction was then assessed using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. While adult C. maenas in Bodega Harbor had limited negative impacts on juveniles, I concluded it was unlikely to result in overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with my conclusion from the experiments. Increases in recruitment rates can occur as a result of efforts to remove non-native species. This increase in recruitment can result in overcompensation, but more commonly results in compensation, where recruitment rates increase relative to pre-removal recruitment but does not result in in the population's abundance exceeding pre-removal levels. However, a detailed and accurate prediction of the response of a population to harvest is time consuming and data intensive. This is not feasible for most efforts to eradicate non-native species, which have the greatest chance of success when enacted rapidly after detection. For my final chapter, I performed a literature review and accompanying statistical analysis to determine if typically available information related to the removal effort (site size, site connectivity, and removal technique) could be used to determine increased risk of compensation for a given effort to remove aquatic invasive species. Compensation was closely linked to unsuccessful removal efforts and was observed only among efforts utilizing physical removal methods. However, the frequency with which compensation occurred varied with the exact technique employed, occurring most frequently in removal utilizing electrofishing. Additionally, evidence of compensation was more frequent among larger removal areas with variable connectivity. While other predictors (temperature, effort, etc) might add to the predicative power, the findings of the review provide criteria for managers to determine the relative risk of compensation prior to the start of removal. Further understanding of how invasive species respond to lethal biotic interactions, including anthropogenically mediated control measures, can aid in assessing the risk of invasion for a given species and inform managers of the risk of complications resulting from removal efforts. While inducible defenses may contribute to the long-term success of an introduced species in their recipient range, my findings did not support the idea that inducible defenses triggered by predator cues contributed to their initial introduction in this case. However, research on other non-native species and offspring of previously naïve prey would allow for a clearer picture of the role of inducible defenses in the invasion process. Compensation resulting from removal efforts does not guarantee failure, and certain characteristics of removal efforts seem to indicate increased risk of compensation. Together these components help identify how biotic interactions surrounding mortality risk of an invading species help shape the trajectory of invasion. Title: Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality Author: Turner, Brian Christopher Year: 2017 Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native and previously established non-native predators, can prevent establishment, limit habitat use, and reduce abundance of non-native species. Management efforts by humans using methods designed to cause mass mortality (e.g., trapping, biocide applications) can reduce or eradicate non-native populations. However, the impacts of predator and human induced mortality may be mitigated by the behavior or population-level responses of a given non-native species. My dissertation examined the responses of non-native aquatic species to the risk of predation by novel (i.e., no previous exposure) predators in the recipient community and indicators of potential compensatory responses by non-native populations to increased mortality resulting from removal efforts. My dissertation addresses four primary questions. 1) Can first generation, naïve invaders recognize and defend against predators found within the region of invasion through the expression of inducible defenses? 2) Can the overcompensatory potential of a population be predicted though examinations of intraspecific interactions of individuals from the population? 3) What is the relationship between removal effort outcome (i.e., successful or unsuccessful reduction of the target population) and compensatory population responses? 4) Is there a relationship between characteristics of removal efforts that are typically available to managers (e.g., target area size, target area connectivity, removal methodology) and compensatory population responses that could indicate the relative likelihood of compensation resulting from removal efforts? An invading species should be more likely to establish if it can successfully identify and defend against predators in the recipient range, such as through the expression of inducible defenses. Inducible defenses are behavioral or physiological changes that reduce an organism's susceptibility to predation. Through a series of laboratory experiments, I tested whether inducible defenses, in the form of increased burrowing depth, may have benefited the early stage of invasion of Nuttallia obscurata (purple varnish clam), an established Northeast Pacific invader. Specimens of N. obscurata were collected from introduced populations in the Northeast Pacific and from a native population in Japan. The clams were exposed to chemical and physical cues from Northeast Pacific crab predators, including the native Metacarcinus magister (Dungeness crab), an abundant and frequent predator of N. obscurata. While introduced N. obscurata increased their burrowing depth in the physical presence of M. magister, clams collected from their native range showed no such response. This lack of increased burrowing depth by naïve clams in response to a predator native to the newly invaded range, but a significant increase in depth for clams from populations established in the range suggests that while inducible defenses likely did not contribute to the initial establishment of N. obscurata in the Northeast Pacific, they may contribute to their continued persistence and expansion in their introduced range. Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when strong negative density-dependent interactions are reduced through increased mortality within a population, resulting in an increase in the population's recruitment rate sufficient to increase the population's overall abundance. Increases in a population's recruitment rate can result from reduced cannibalism of juveniles resulting in lower mortality of new recruits, from increased adult reproductive output, which increases the number of potential recruits, or from reductions in size and/or age at maturity of the unharvested population, which increases the number of reproductive individuals. I predicted the overcompensatory potential of a population of Carcinus maenas (European green crab) in Bodega Harbor, California, using a series of laboratory and field experiments examining intraspecific pressures of adults on juveniles in the population. This measure of intraspecific pressure was used to predict the overcompensatory potential of the population in response to increased mortality from ongoing removal efforts. This prediction was then assessed using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. While adult C. maenas in Bodega Harbor had limited negative impacts on juveniles, I concluded it was unlikely to result in overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with my conclusion from the experiments. Increases in recruitment rates can occur as a result of efforts to remove non-native species. This increase in recruitment can result in overcompensation, but more commonly results in compensation, where recruitment rates increase relative to pre-removal recruitment but does not result in in the population's abundance exceeding pre-removal levels. However, a detailed and accurate prediction of the response of a population to harvest is time consuming and data intensive. This is not feasible for most efforts to eradicate non-native species, which have the greatest chance of success when enacted rapidly after detection. For my final chapter, I performed a literature review and accompanying statistical analysis to determine if typically available information related to the removal effort (site size, site connectivity, and removal technique) could be used to determine increased risk of compensation for a given effort to remove aquatic invasive species. Compensation was closely linked to unsuccessful removal efforts and was observed only among efforts utilizing physical removal methods. However, the frequency with which compensation occurred varied with the exact technique employed, occurring most frequently in removal utilizing electrofishing. Additionally, evidence of compensation was more frequent among larger removal areas with variable connectivity. While other predictors (temperature, effort, etc) might add to the predicative power, the findings of the review provide criteria for managers to determine the relative risk of compensation prior to the start of removal. Further understanding of how invasive species respond to lethal biotic interactions, including anthropogenically mediated control measures, can aid in assessing the risk of invasion for a given species and inform managers of the risk of complications resulting from removal efforts. While inducible defenses may contribute to the long-term success of an introduced species in their recipient range, my findings did not support the idea that inducible defenses triggered by predator cues contributed to their initial introduction in this case. However, research on other non-native species and offspring of previously naïve prey would allow for a clearer picture of the role of inducible defenses in the invasion process. Compensation resulting from removal efforts does not guarantee failure, and certain characteristics of removal efforts seem to indicate increased risk of compensation. Together these components help identify how biotic interactions surrounding mortality risk of an invading species help shape the trajectory of invasion. Close