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• 41. [Article] Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-Driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest

  Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Pacific Northwest’s communities, economy, and natural systems. These impacts – which include reductions in summer water supply, the potential ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-Driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest Author: Binder, Lara Whitely, Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2016 Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Pacific Northwest’s communities, economy, and natural systems. These impacts – which include reductions in summer water supply, the potential for more winter flooding and forest fires, threats to public health, and damage to coastal infrastructure due to sea level rise – will require changes in how communities evaluate, manage, and mitigate environmental risks. Despite these challenges, some have suggested that the region may be relatively well off compared to other areas of the U.S. and the world. This has led to growing speculation by the media, bloggers, and the public that “global warming could unleash a deluge of newcomers” (or “climate refugees”) to the Pacific Northwest in coming years.2The question is also gaining the attention of public sector professionals in the region. Planners and managers who engage in long-term planning for transportation, public health, utilities, and other public services want to understand whether population forecasts—an important analytical tool guiding many areas of regional planning—should reflect the possible impacts of climate change on migration flows, and if so, how? The connection between climate change and migration is the subject of a complex and emerging body of social science research. To help stimulate and inform research, and to provide guidance to decision makers on this issue, researchers at Portland State University and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group convened experts in climate science, population dynamics, and public sector management to begin addressing the following central question: Do we need to be planning for more growth in Washington and Oregon because of climate change, and if so, what would a systematic framework for developing and updating migration scenarios for use in regional and state population growth and planning forecasts look like? The symposium—the first of its kind in the region and possibly the first of its kind in the United States—was held on June 24, 2016 at Portland State University. Title: Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-Driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest Author: Binder, Lara Whitely, Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2016 Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Pacific Northwest’s communities, economy, and natural systems. These impacts – which include reductions in summer water supply, the potential for more winter flooding and forest fires, threats to public health, and damage to coastal infrastructure due to sea level rise – will require changes in how communities evaluate, manage, and mitigate environmental risks. Despite these challenges, some have suggested that the region may be relatively well off compared to other areas of the U.S. and the world. This has led to growing speculation by the media, bloggers, and the public that “global warming could unleash a deluge of newcomers” (or “climate refugees”) to the Pacific Northwest in coming years.2The question is also gaining the attention of public sector professionals in the region. Planners and managers who engage in long-term planning for transportation, public health, utilities, and other public services want to understand whether population forecasts—an important analytical tool guiding many areas of regional planning—should reflect the possible impacts of climate change on migration flows, and if so, how? The connection between climate change and migration is the subject of a complex and emerging body of social science research. To help stimulate and inform research, and to provide guidance to decision makers on this issue, researchers at Portland State University and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group convened experts in climate science, population dynamics, and public sector management to begin addressing the following central question: Do we need to be planning for more growth in Washington and Oregon because of climate change, and if so, what would a systematic framework for developing and updating migration scenarios for use in regional and state population growth and planning forecasts look like? The symposium—the first of its kind in the region and possibly the first of its kind in the United States—was held on June 24, 2016 at Portland State University. Close

• 42. [Article] Cloud Service Selection for Online Fashion Retailer – HDM Analysis

  Choosing to move to the cloud is a complex process, and many decisions must be made before completing the migration. This paper identifies key criteria for a company moving to the cloud and offers a model ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Cloud Service Selection for Online Fashion Retailer – HDM Analysis Author: Miller, Cody, Lally, Wendy, Xiao, Liyan, Burchfield, David, Hanayneh, Shihab Year: 2017 Choosing to move to the cloud is a complex process, and many decisions must be made before completing the migration. This paper identifies key criteria for a company moving to the cloud and offers a model for determining one of the decisions: which cloud service strategy (Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), or Software as a Service (SaaS)) should be used for a particular cloud migration project. This paper describes these types of services as well as presents a Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) structure for choosing a service strategy. Title: Cloud Service Selection for Online Fashion Retailer – HDM Analysis Author: Miller, Cody, Lally, Wendy, Xiao, Liyan, Burchfield, David, Hanayneh, Shihab Year: 2017 Choosing to move to the cloud is a complex process, and many decisions must be made before completing the migration. This paper identifies key criteria for a company moving to the cloud and offers a model for determining one of the decisions: which cloud service strategy (Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), or Software as a Service (SaaS)) should be used for a particular cloud migration project. This paper describes these types of services as well as presents a Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) structure for choosing a service strategy. Close

• 43. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler County’s total population has declined slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of just above negative one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced some population growth during the 2000s. Fossil, the most populous UGB, experienced small growth and Spray posted the highest average annual growth rate at 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wheeler County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of an aging population. The aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages, has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration and natural decrease compounded to create a substantial population decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, migration into the county increased in the later part of the decade and helped to offset the natural decrease. Net out-migration was still substantial for populations between the ages of 20 and 29 years from 2000 to 2010, but there has been net in-migration for a slightly older population from 30 to 39 years of age. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it some slight population growth. Total population in Wheeler County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slightly slower pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The declining of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a steady natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 90 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by more than 300 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience similar rates of population decline during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler County’s total population has declined slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of just above negative one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced some population growth during the 2000s. Fossil, the most populous UGB, experienced small growth and Spray posted the highest average annual growth rate at 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wheeler County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of an aging population. The aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages, has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration and natural decrease compounded to create a substantial population decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, migration into the county increased in the later part of the decade and helped to offset the natural decrease. Net out-migration was still substantial for populations between the ages of 20 and 29 years from 2000 to 2010, but there has been net in-migration for a slightly older population from 30 to 39 years of age. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it some slight population growth. Total population in Wheeler County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slightly slower pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The declining of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a steady natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 90 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by more than 300 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience similar rates of population decline during the forecast period. Close

• 44. [Article] Why Do Animals Do What They Do, When They Do It? Characterizing the Role of the Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis in Seasonal Life-History Transitions

  Resource availability follows seasonal cycles in environmental conditions. To align physiology and behavior with prevailing environmental conditions, seasonal animals integrate cues from the environment ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Why Do Animals Do What They Do, When They Do It? Characterizing the Role of the Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis in Seasonal Life-History Transitions Author: Dayger Forbes, Catherine Anne Year: 2017 Resource availability follows seasonal cycles in environmental conditions. To align physiology and behavior with prevailing environmental conditions, seasonal animals integrate cues from the environment with their internal state. One of the systems animals use to integrate those cues is the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and its primary effector, glucocorticoid hormones. The HPA axis has wide-ranging effects on physiology and behavior and, in the context of a glucocorticoid stress response, is known to mediate tradeoffs between immediate survival and future fitness. The HPA axis also plays an important role in facilitating predictable life-history events. Variation in HPA axis activity has been reported in all vertebrates, often coordinating seasonal reproduction and possibly also transitions between life-history stages. My dissertation research used red-sided garter snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis parietalis) to examine the role of the HPA axis in regulating seasonal life-history transitions, especially in females In Chapter 2, I hypothesized that seasonal plasticity in stress responses is regulated, in part, by changes in the responsiveness of the adrenal glands to adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH). I found that glucocorticoid responses to ACTH challenge were smaller in males than in females during the spring, suggesting that reports of reduced stress responsiveness in males may reflect lower adrenal responsiveness to ACTH. The sex difference in mating season duration and consequently also in the timing of migration led me to hypothesize that sex differences in HPA axis activity could explain sex differences in the timing of migration. Furthermore, adrenal responsiveness to ACTH also varied seasonally in males, but not females, suggesting that female stress responses, which have not been studied, may not vary seasonally. In Chapter 3, I investigated potential seasonal variation in female stress responses, which have not previously been examined. In males, baseline glucocorticoids decrease over the course of the mating season resulting in significantly lower baseline levels in males that have begun to migrate. I hypothesized that a change in HPA axis activity occurs during spring and fall migration. Peak stress-induced glucocorticoid concentration occurred at an earlier sampling time in females during the spring compared to the fall. Peak stress-induced glucocorticoid concentrations also occurred at a later sampling time in migrating females than in pre-migratory females during the spring, suggesting that negative feedback regulation of the HPA axis changes as soon as females begin to migrate during the spring. Female red-sided garter snakes are biennial breeders that give birth approximately every other year implying that a female's recent reproductive history can influence whether or not she will reproduce in a given year. Body condition can be used as a proxy for recent reproductive history and can be related to baseline and stress-induced glucocorticoid concentrations. In Chapter 4, I hypothesized that hormonal and behavioral stress responses vary with body condition. Baseline glucocorticoids did not vary with body condition, but females in low body condition showed a significantly larger increase in plasma glucocorticoids in response to capture stress. Body condition, but not capture stress, influenced latency to copulate, suggesting that females are resistant to the behavioral effects of capture stress during the spring mating season. Only females in low body condition increased latency to copulate in response to injection of a physiological (15 µg) dose of exogenous CORT, while all females responded to a pharmacological (60 µg) dose, indicating that behavioral responses to exogenous glucocorticoids vary with female body condition. These data suggest that variation in body condition may be associated with differences in HPA axis sensitivity and/or glucocorticoid receptor (GR) density in the brain. I directly tested if there is a relationship among body condition, reproductive history and HPA axis activity in Chapter 5. I found that glucocorticoid stress responses and mating behavior did not vary with body condition, nor was body condition related to brain GR or reproductive condition (parturient vs post-parturient females). Only unreceptive females showed a significant stress-induced increase in glucocorticoids, suggesting that reduced stress responsiveness is associated with receptivity. Parturient females mated faster (were more proceptive) than post-parturient females. These data suggest that HPA axis activity influences reproductive "decisions" by modulating receptivity, while proceptivity is related primarily to recent reproductive history. Together, these chapters help characterize how HPA axis activity varies with season, sex, reproductive history and migration status. By systematically probing the HPA axis in a single, tractable system, I have gained insight into how changes in the HPA axis support and modulate transitions between life-history stages. These results highlight the HPA axis' important function in mediating the critical trade-offs all animals must navigate to be successful in a changing world. Title: Why Do Animals Do What They Do, When They Do It? Characterizing the Role of the Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis in Seasonal Life-History Transitions Author: Dayger Forbes, Catherine Anne Year: 2017 Resource availability follows seasonal cycles in environmental conditions. To align physiology and behavior with prevailing environmental conditions, seasonal animals integrate cues from the environment with their internal state. One of the systems animals use to integrate those cues is the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and its primary effector, glucocorticoid hormones. The HPA axis has wide-ranging effects on physiology and behavior and, in the context of a glucocorticoid stress response, is known to mediate tradeoffs between immediate survival and future fitness. The HPA axis also plays an important role in facilitating predictable life-history events. Variation in HPA axis activity has been reported in all vertebrates, often coordinating seasonal reproduction and possibly also transitions between life-history stages. My dissertation research used red-sided garter snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis parietalis) to examine the role of the HPA axis in regulating seasonal life-history transitions, especially in females In Chapter 2, I hypothesized that seasonal plasticity in stress responses is regulated, in part, by changes in the responsiveness of the adrenal glands to adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH). I found that glucocorticoid responses to ACTH challenge were smaller in males than in females during the spring, suggesting that reports of reduced stress responsiveness in males may reflect lower adrenal responsiveness to ACTH. The sex difference in mating season duration and consequently also in the timing of migration led me to hypothesize that sex differences in HPA axis activity could explain sex differences in the timing of migration. Furthermore, adrenal responsiveness to ACTH also varied seasonally in males, but not females, suggesting that female stress responses, which have not been studied, may not vary seasonally. In Chapter 3, I investigated potential seasonal variation in female stress responses, which have not previously been examined. In males, baseline glucocorticoids decrease over the course of the mating season resulting in significantly lower baseline levels in males that have begun to migrate. I hypothesized that a change in HPA axis activity occurs during spring and fall migration. Peak stress-induced glucocorticoid concentration occurred at an earlier sampling time in females during the spring compared to the fall. Peak stress-induced glucocorticoid concentrations also occurred at a later sampling time in migrating females than in pre-migratory females during the spring, suggesting that negative feedback regulation of the HPA axis changes as soon as females begin to migrate during the spring. Female red-sided garter snakes are biennial breeders that give birth approximately every other year implying that a female's recent reproductive history can influence whether or not she will reproduce in a given year. Body condition can be used as a proxy for recent reproductive history and can be related to baseline and stress-induced glucocorticoid concentrations. In Chapter 4, I hypothesized that hormonal and behavioral stress responses vary with body condition. Baseline glucocorticoids did not vary with body condition, but females in low body condition showed a significantly larger increase in plasma glucocorticoids in response to capture stress. Body condition, but not capture stress, influenced latency to copulate, suggesting that females are resistant to the behavioral effects of capture stress during the spring mating season. Only females in low body condition increased latency to copulate in response to injection of a physiological (15 µg) dose of exogenous CORT, while all females responded to a pharmacological (60 µg) dose, indicating that behavioral responses to exogenous glucocorticoids vary with female body condition. These data suggest that variation in body condition may be associated with differences in HPA axis sensitivity and/or glucocorticoid receptor (GR) density in the brain. I directly tested if there is a relationship among body condition, reproductive history and HPA axis activity in Chapter 5. I found that glucocorticoid stress responses and mating behavior did not vary with body condition, nor was body condition related to brain GR or reproductive condition (parturient vs post-parturient females). Only unreceptive females showed a significant stress-induced increase in glucocorticoids, suggesting that reduced stress responsiveness is associated with receptivity. Parturient females mated faster (were more proceptive) than post-parturient females. These data suggest that HPA axis activity influences reproductive "decisions" by modulating receptivity, while proceptivity is related primarily to recent reproductive history. Together, these chapters help characterize how HPA axis activity varies with season, sex, reproductive history and migration status. By systematically probing the HPA axis in a single, tractable system, I have gained insight into how changes in the HPA axis support and modulate transitions between life-history stages. These results highlight the HPA axis' important function in mediating the critical trade-offs all animals must navigate to be successful in a changing world. Close

• 45. [Article] Site Selection by Migratory Shorebirds in Oregon Estuaries Over Broad and Fine Spatial Scales

  Many migratory shorebirds rely on estuaries as stop-over sites to refuel during migration, and the loss of stop-over sites is a primary threat to shorebird populations on the West Coast of the United States ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Site Selection by Migratory Shorebirds in Oregon Estuaries Over Broad and Fine Spatial Scales Author: Miller, Aileen Kilpatrick Year: 2012 Many migratory shorebirds rely on estuaries as stop-over sites to refuel during migration, and the loss of stop-over sites is a primary threat to shorebird populations on the West Coast of the United States (e.g. Calidris alpina pacifica, C. mauri). Conservation and research has focused on the largest of these sites; however, smaller estuaries also host thousands of migratory shorebirds. Furthermore, the reasons for site selection are largely unknown. Estuarine inter-tidal microhabitats are non-uniform and both abiotic and biotic factors may serve as predictors of whether an abundance of shorebirds will use a site. I investigated shorebird site selection on broad and fine scales within Oregon estuaries. To identify factors that relate to shorebird abundance on large spatial scales, I compiled shorebird abundance data from estuaries throughout the Pacific Northwest as well as data on site quality factors. To investigate site selection on a finer scale I measured shorebird abundance, habitat characteristics, and food resources―invertebrates and a newly considered source, biofilm―within two Oregon estuaries during the fall migration period. Finally, I examined whether channels are preferentially used by foraging Calidrid shorebirds by conducting observations during the spring migration. I investigated whether channels may be superior foraging habitat possibly because prey are more abundant, are found at shallower depths, or because sediments are more penetrable (increasing the opportunity for shorebird probing) by taking infauna cores and measuring force required to probe in the sediment at channel and open mudflat sites. Among estuaries, shorebird densities in spring were best predicted by estuary size, as opposed to the amount of any one habitat. During fall migration, the amount of grassland in the surrounding watershed was also a good predictor, pointing to the probable importance of roost sites as well as feeding grounds. The amount of infauna also related to the density of shorebirds using a site. Within estuaries, shorebird distribution in the inter-tidal region was not generally predicted by prey abundance. Channels were used preferentially by shorebirds, and infauna abundance along channels was greater than in the surrounding mudflats. The more penetrable sediments of the channel also made it easier for shorebirds to probe and capture prey. Identification of these large-scale and fine-scale factors that influence site quality for migratory shorebirds will assist land and wildlife managers' efforts to protect these species. Title: Site Selection by Migratory Shorebirds in Oregon Estuaries Over Broad and Fine Spatial Scales Author: Miller, Aileen Kilpatrick Year: 2012 Many migratory shorebirds rely on estuaries as stop-over sites to refuel during migration, and the loss of stop-over sites is a primary threat to shorebird populations on the West Coast of the United States (e.g. Calidris alpina pacifica, C. mauri). Conservation and research has focused on the largest of these sites; however, smaller estuaries also host thousands of migratory shorebirds. Furthermore, the reasons for site selection are largely unknown. Estuarine inter-tidal microhabitats are non-uniform and both abiotic and biotic factors may serve as predictors of whether an abundance of shorebirds will use a site. I investigated shorebird site selection on broad and fine scales within Oregon estuaries. To identify factors that relate to shorebird abundance on large spatial scales, I compiled shorebird abundance data from estuaries throughout the Pacific Northwest as well as data on site quality factors. To investigate site selection on a finer scale I measured shorebird abundance, habitat characteristics, and food resources―invertebrates and a newly considered source, biofilm―within two Oregon estuaries during the fall migration period. Finally, I examined whether channels are preferentially used by foraging Calidrid shorebirds by conducting observations during the spring migration. I investigated whether channels may be superior foraging habitat possibly because prey are more abundant, are found at shallower depths, or because sediments are more penetrable (increasing the opportunity for shorebird probing) by taking infauna cores and measuring force required to probe in the sediment at channel and open mudflat sites. Among estuaries, shorebird densities in spring were best predicted by estuary size, as opposed to the amount of any one habitat. During fall migration, the amount of grassland in the surrounding watershed was also a good predictor, pointing to the probable importance of roost sites as well as feeding grounds. The amount of infauna also related to the density of shorebirds using a site. Within estuaries, shorebird distribution in the inter-tidal region was not generally predicted by prey abundance. Channels were used preferentially by shorebirds, and infauna abundance along channels was greater than in the surrounding mudflats. The more penetrable sediments of the channel also made it easier for shorebirds to probe and capture prey. Identification of these large-scale and fine-scale factors that influence site quality for migratory shorebirds will assist land and wildlife managers' efforts to protect these species. Close

• 46. [Article] Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools

  The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, migration, and international migration have affected public school enrollments in Portland. This report reaches four main conclusions: * First and foremost, public school enrollments have declined in recent years primarily because there have been sizeable decreases in the number of students entering kindergarten and the early elementary school grades. Smaller numbers of entering students are, in turn, the result of substantial reductions in the number of births--reductions that began in 1991. Because there were fewer births in the early 1990s, fewer students enrolled in school in the late 1990s. The number of births declined in the 1980s primarily because there were decreases in the number of younger couples--not because there were decreases in the average number of births per couples in the 1980s. * The number of births has continued to decline in the 1990s. The lower number of births in the second half of the decade has not yet affected school enrollments. But they will add to declines in school enrollments in the future, starting after about 2002. Although there was net out-migration of school-age children, in the 1980s and 1990s, net out-migration of school-age children appears to have increased in the late 1990s, further reducing enrollments. * Increased international migration into the Portland metropolitan area has ameliorated the decline in enrollments by adding several thousand foreign-born students to the Portland Public Schools. Immigrant couples are contributing an increasing number of births to the population. Births to immigrants partially counterbalance fertility declines among native-born residents. * There is conflicting evidence from public, private, and home schooling data on changes in public school capture rates (the proportion of school age children enrolled in Portland Public Schools). Available data, however, suggest that changes in capture rates have not been a major determinant of public school enrollment trends. Title: Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, migration, and international migration have affected public school enrollments in Portland. This report reaches four main conclusions: * First and foremost, public school enrollments have declined in recent years primarily because there have been sizeable decreases in the number of students entering kindergarten and the early elementary school grades. Smaller numbers of entering students are, in turn, the result of substantial reductions in the number of births--reductions that began in 1991. Because there were fewer births in the early 1990s, fewer students enrolled in school in the late 1990s. The number of births declined in the 1980s primarily because there were decreases in the number of younger couples--not because there were decreases in the average number of births per couples in the 1980s. * The number of births has continued to decline in the 1990s. The lower number of births in the second half of the decade has not yet affected school enrollments. But they will add to declines in school enrollments in the future, starting after about 2002. Although there was net out-migration of school-age children, in the 1980s and 1990s, net out-migration of school-age children appears to have increased in the late 1990s, further reducing enrollments. * Increased international migration into the Portland metropolitan area has ameliorated the decline in enrollments by adding several thousand foreign-born students to the Portland Public Schools. Immigrant couples are contributing an increasing number of births to the population. Births to immigrants partially counterbalance fertility declines among native-born residents. * There is conflicting evidence from public, private, and home schooling data on changes in public school capture rates (the proportion of school age children enrolled in Portland Public Schools). Available data, however, suggest that changes in capture rates have not been a major determinant of public school enrollment trends. Close

• 47. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population growth during the 2000s. In spite of population increases in the two most populous UGBs, the area outside UGBs declined by nearly one percent per year between 2000 and 2010, losing nearly 200 persons and effectively driving countywide population decline. Even so, Wallowa County’s population has slightly increased in recent years, growing by roughly 100 people between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Wallowa County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a natural decrease and periods of net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net migration fluctuated dramatically during the last decade, net in-migration has been consistent during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wallowa County as a whole will likely increase in the near-term (2015 to 2035), driven by population growth in Enterprise, Joseph, and the area outside UGBs (Figure 1). However, in the remaining 31-year period, the county is forecast to see population decline. A rise in the magnitude of natural decrease and slow growth of net in-migration are expected to cause population growth to reach its peak in 2025, turning to population decline through the remainder of the forecast period. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net migration is expected to remain relatively steady throughout the forecast period, but will not offset natural decrease after 2025. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population growth during the 2000s. In spite of population increases in the two most populous UGBs, the area outside UGBs declined by nearly one percent per year between 2000 and 2010, losing nearly 200 persons and effectively driving countywide population decline. Even so, Wallowa County’s population has slightly increased in recent years, growing by roughly 100 people between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Wallowa County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a natural decrease and periods of net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net migration fluctuated dramatically during the last decade, net in-migration has been consistent during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wallowa County as a whole will likely increase in the near-term (2015 to 2035), driven by population growth in Enterprise, Joseph, and the area outside UGBs (Figure 1). However, in the remaining 31-year period, the county is forecast to see population decline. A rise in the magnitude of natural decrease and slow growth of net in-migration are expected to cause population growth to reach its peak in 2025, turning to population decline through the remainder of the forecast period. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net migration is expected to remain relatively steady throughout the forecast period, but will not offset natural decrease after 2025. Close

• 48. [Article] Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010

  For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Close

• 49. [Article] Drift of Plumes in the Mantle

  We quantified the fixity of mantle plumes relative to the mantle in high Rayleigh number numerical thermal convection with radially- and temperature-dependent viscosity structures in a 3D spherical shell ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Drift of Plumes in the Mantle Author: Brown, Luke Douglas Year: 2015 We quantified the fixity of mantle plumes relative to the mantle in high Rayleigh number numerical thermal convection with radially- and temperature-dependent viscosity structures in a 3D spherical shell geometry. The relative velocities between plumes and the mantle increased with increasing Rayleigh number. Net migration rates of plumes vary from ~0.016-0.053 °/Myr, and differential plume velocities can be up to ~25% of past- and present-day rates of net lithospheric rotation. Individual plumes migrate on average at ~0.0617-0.223 °/Myr for Rayleigh numbers between 1·107 and 2·108. We compared the ratio of plume velocity to horizontal average velocity (a) at the surface and (b) at mid-mantle for experiments with Rayleigh number between 5·107 and 2·108, which were (a) ~0.15 and (b) ~0.35. Additionally, we plotted the mean migration rates of plumes against Rayleigh number and found that a linear fit had a greater R2 value than a power law fit. There is a transition in the long-wavelength structure of convection from degree-2 to degree-1 poloidally dominant motion between Ra = 1·107 and Ra = 2·108 where thermal upwellings change from dominantly sheet-like to dominantly plume-like. Future studies should investigate whether the scaling of plume velocities with vigor of convection depends on the mode of convection. We find that all cases produce long-lived plume-like features which generate from a thermal boundary layer at the core-mantle boundary, and persist for more than 80 Myr. On average, the lifespan of mantle plumes decreased with increasing Rayleigh number. Our studies suggest that hotspots may be an imperfect proxy for a lower mantle reference frame. Title: Drift of Plumes in the Mantle Author: Brown, Luke Douglas Year: 2015 We quantified the fixity of mantle plumes relative to the mantle in high Rayleigh number numerical thermal convection with radially- and temperature-dependent viscosity structures in a 3D spherical shell geometry. The relative velocities between plumes and the mantle increased with increasing Rayleigh number. Net migration rates of plumes vary from ~0.016-0.053 °/Myr, and differential plume velocities can be up to ~25% of past- and present-day rates of net lithospheric rotation. Individual plumes migrate on average at ~0.0617-0.223 °/Myr for Rayleigh numbers between 1·107 and 2·108. We compared the ratio of plume velocity to horizontal average velocity (a) at the surface and (b) at mid-mantle for experiments with Rayleigh number between 5·107 and 2·108, which were (a) ~0.15 and (b) ~0.35. Additionally, we plotted the mean migration rates of plumes against Rayleigh number and found that a linear fit had a greater R2 value than a power law fit. There is a transition in the long-wavelength structure of convection from degree-2 to degree-1 poloidally dominant motion between Ra = 1·107 and Ra = 2·108 where thermal upwellings change from dominantly sheet-like to dominantly plume-like. Future studies should investigate whether the scaling of plume velocities with vigor of convection depends on the mode of convection. We find that all cases produce long-lived plume-like features which generate from a thermal boundary layer at the core-mantle boundary, and persist for more than 80 Myr. On average, the lifespan of mantle plumes decreased with increasing Rayleigh number. Our studies suggest that hotspots may be an imperfect proxy for a lower mantle reference frame. Close

• 50. [Article] OIT Online Web Presence

  The Office of Information Technology (OIT) at Portland State University (PSU) migrated its website to a centrallyprovided Drupal content management system in the summer of 2012, leaving out a significant ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: OIT Online Web Presence Author: Alsahaf, Ali, Menze, Ryan, Moshfegh, Farzad, Thomas, Jerrod Year: 2013 The Office of Information Technology (OIT) at Portland State University (PSU) migrated its website to a centrallyprovided Drupal content management system in the summer of 2012, leaving out a significant amount of content from the previous website in exchange for a quick implementation timeline based on an executive order to unify departmental branding across the division of Finance and Administration. This initial migration focused on public facing information and excluded large swaths of support articles that were broadly used by faculty, staff, students, and technology professionals. In early 2013, a new project was launched to reevaluate the design decisions made in the initial migration project, republish or rewrite the missing articles, and to consolidate the divergent web presence of the seven major departments within OIT. This paper does a comparison by juxtaposing these web projects through their various incarnations. First was a longrunning, never completed project with no clear stakeholders, scope, or control mechanisms–simply an internal desire to fix what was broken and modernize the delivery platform. Second, a top-down requirement was imposed to complete what had been in process: move to the new Drupal delivery platform and do it soon. No specific delivery date was given, but a executive decree was put forth and the OIT leadership was going to comply. Lastly, a true project team was formed, appropriate resources were allocated, and OIT executive leadership provided both the charge and support, allowing flexibility in requirements and project scope as deemed appropriate by the project team. The core elements of resource allocation and management, clear and inclusive communication techniques, and schedule management are key elements in the success of this latest iteration of the project and from all signs, a successful product launch. Title: OIT Online Web Presence Author: Alsahaf, Ali, Menze, Ryan, Moshfegh, Farzad, Thomas, Jerrod Year: 2013 The Office of Information Technology (OIT) at Portland State University (PSU) migrated its website to a centrallyprovided Drupal content management system in the summer of 2012, leaving out a significant amount of content from the previous website in exchange for a quick implementation timeline based on an executive order to unify departmental branding across the division of Finance and Administration. This initial migration focused on public facing information and excluded large swaths of support articles that were broadly used by faculty, staff, students, and technology professionals. In early 2013, a new project was launched to reevaluate the design decisions made in the initial migration project, republish or rewrite the missing articles, and to consolidate the divergent web presence of the seven major departments within OIT. This paper does a comparison by juxtaposing these web projects through their various incarnations. First was a longrunning, never completed project with no clear stakeholders, scope, or control mechanisms–simply an internal desire to fix what was broken and modernize the delivery platform. Second, a top-down requirement was imposed to complete what had been in process: move to the new Drupal delivery platform and do it soon. No specific delivery date was given, but a executive decree was put forth and the OIT leadership was going to comply. Lastly, a true project team was formed, appropriate resources were allocated, and OIT executive leadership provided both the charge and support, allowing flexibility in requirements and project scope as deemed appropriate by the project team. The core elements of resource allocation and management, clear and inclusive communication techniques, and schedule management are key elements in the success of this latest iteration of the project and from all signs, a successful product launch. Close