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• 31. [Article] Climate Change Impact on the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Hydro-Climate Extremes

  The rising temperature of the earth due to climate change has shown to alter the variations of hydro-climate variables, including their intensities, frequencies and durations. Extreme events such as floods ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Impact on the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Hydro-Climate Extremes Author: Najafi, Mohammad Reza Year: 2013 The rising temperature of the earth due to climate change has shown to alter the variations of hydro-climate variables, including their intensities, frequencies and durations. Extreme events such as floods are, in particular, susceptible to any disturbances in climate cycles. As such it is important to provide policymakers with sufficient knowledge about the probable impacts of climate change on hydrologic extremes and most importantly on floods, which have the highest impacts on the societies. For this reason analysis of hydro-climate extremes is commonly performed using data at each site (or grid cell), however due to the limited number of extreme events, these analyses are not robust. Current methods, such as the regional frequency analysis, which combine data from different locations are incapable of incorporating the spatial structure of the data as well as other explanatory variables, and do not explicitly, assess the uncertainties. In this thesis the spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is proposed for hydro-climate extreme analyses using data recorded at each site or grid. This method combines limited number of data from different locations, estimates the uncertainties in different stages of the hierarchy, incorporates additional explanatory variables (covariates), and can be used to estimate extreme events at un-gaged sites. The first project develops a spatial hierarchical Bayesian method to model the extreme runoffs over two spatial domains in the Columbia River Basin, U.S. The model is also employed to estimate floods with different return levels within time slices of fifteen years in order to detect possible trends in runoff extremes. Continuing on the extreme analysis, the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the whole Pacific Northwest (PNW). This study aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes will change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes, and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Given the increasing number of climate model simulations the goal of the third project is to provide a multi-model ensemble average of hydro-climate extremes and characterize the inherent uncertainties. Outputs from several regional climate models provided by NARCCAP are considered for the analysis in all seasons. Three combination scenarios are defined and compared for multi-modeling of extreme runoffs. The biases of each scenario are calculated and the scenario with the least bias is selected for projecting seasonal runoff extremes. The aim of the fourth project is to quantify and compare the uncertainties regarding global climate models to the ones from the hydrologic model structures in climate change impact studies. Various methods have been proposed to downscale the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) climatological variables to the fine scale regional variables; however fewer studies have been focused on the selection of GCM predictors. Additionally, the results obtained from one downscaling technique may not be robust and the uncertainties related to the downscaling scheme are not realized. To address these issues, in the fifth study we employed Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for predictor selection which determines spatially independent GCM variables (as discussed in Appendix A). Cross validation of the independent components is employed to find the predictor combination that describes the regional precipitation over the upper Willamette basin with minimum error. These climate variables along with the observed precipitation are used to calibrate three downscaling models: Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Title: Climate Change Impact on the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Hydro-Climate Extremes Author: Najafi, Mohammad Reza Year: 2013 The rising temperature of the earth due to climate change has shown to alter the variations of hydro-climate variables, including their intensities, frequencies and durations. Extreme events such as floods are, in particular, susceptible to any disturbances in climate cycles. As such it is important to provide policymakers with sufficient knowledge about the probable impacts of climate change on hydrologic extremes and most importantly on floods, which have the highest impacts on the societies. For this reason analysis of hydro-climate extremes is commonly performed using data at each site (or grid cell), however due to the limited number of extreme events, these analyses are not robust. Current methods, such as the regional frequency analysis, which combine data from different locations are incapable of incorporating the spatial structure of the data as well as other explanatory variables, and do not explicitly, assess the uncertainties. In this thesis the spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is proposed for hydro-climate extreme analyses using data recorded at each site or grid. This method combines limited number of data from different locations, estimates the uncertainties in different stages of the hierarchy, incorporates additional explanatory variables (covariates), and can be used to estimate extreme events at un-gaged sites. The first project develops a spatial hierarchical Bayesian method to model the extreme runoffs over two spatial domains in the Columbia River Basin, U.S. The model is also employed to estimate floods with different return levels within time slices of fifteen years in order to detect possible trends in runoff extremes. Continuing on the extreme analysis, the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the whole Pacific Northwest (PNW). This study aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes will change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes, and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Given the increasing number of climate model simulations the goal of the third project is to provide a multi-model ensemble average of hydro-climate extremes and characterize the inherent uncertainties. Outputs from several regional climate models provided by NARCCAP are considered for the analysis in all seasons. Three combination scenarios are defined and compared for multi-modeling of extreme runoffs. The biases of each scenario are calculated and the scenario with the least bias is selected for projecting seasonal runoff extremes. The aim of the fourth project is to quantify and compare the uncertainties regarding global climate models to the ones from the hydrologic model structures in climate change impact studies. Various methods have been proposed to downscale the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) climatological variables to the fine scale regional variables; however fewer studies have been focused on the selection of GCM predictors. Additionally, the results obtained from one downscaling technique may not be robust and the uncertainties related to the downscaling scheme are not realized. To address these issues, in the fifth study we employed Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for predictor selection which determines spatially independent GCM variables (as discussed in Appendix A). Cross validation of the independent components is employed to find the predictor combination that describes the regional precipitation over the upper Willamette basin with minimum error. These climate variables along with the observed precipitation are used to calibrate three downscaling models: Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Close

• 32. [Article] Vegetation, Environmental Characteristics, and their Relationships: Variation within the Annually Flooded Riparian Zones of the John Day River Basin, Oregon

  I hypothesized that vegetation and physical environmental characteristics would differ between the upper and lower extents of the annually flooded riparian zone on the John Day River, and that relationships ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Vegetation, Environmental Characteristics, and their Relationships: Variation within the Annually Flooded Riparian Zones of the John Day River Basin, Oregon Author: Hartsfield, Samuel J. Year: 2009 I hypothesized that vegetation and physical environmental characteristics would differ between the upper and lower extents of the annually flooded riparian zone on the John Day River, and that relationships between species and environmental variables would display differences between these two zones. Vegetation, environmental variables, and relationships between them were assessed for the entire annually flooded riparian zone, and for the proposed upper and lower zones. Data were collected from 60 one-square-meter quadrats: 30 in each the upper and lower zones. Sites were randomly selected and located so that flood duration was roughly equal at all sites within each zone. 34 plant species were encountered: 25 in the upper zone, 27 in the lower zone. Wetland obligate and facultative wetland species groups and eight individual species accounted for statistically different percentages ofquadrat cover between zones. ANOSIM analysis identified two statistically distinct vegetation communities between the two zones. Soil texture averaged 75.85% sand and 20.81% fines. Sand ranged between 36.69% and 95.55%. Fines ranged between 2.54% and 58.84%. A horizon depths and fine soil particle concentrations were greater in the upper zone. Coarser soils with more sand and gravel dominated the lower zone. All enviromnental variables studied, except pH, were highly variable throughout the study area. ANOSIM analysis results suggest that the upper and lower zones have distinct, statistically different physical environments from each other. Regression analyses relating species quadrat cover to physical environmental variables were performed for the total, upper, and lower riparian zones. Numerous differences were identified between the upper and lower riparian zones that the riparian scale analyses did not represent accurately. There were ten instances in which the zone scale analyses identified a relationship in either the upper or lower zone, while the corresponding riparian scale analysis failed to identify any relationship. The results of this study indicate that vegetation and the physical environment are statistically different between the upper and lower zones on this river, and that relationships between a given plant species and environmental variable can vary between zones. Future research and management efforts should consider and address the potential for such between-zone variation. Title: Vegetation, Environmental Characteristics, and their Relationships: Variation within the Annually Flooded Riparian Zones of the John Day River Basin, Oregon Author: Hartsfield, Samuel J. Year: 2009 I hypothesized that vegetation and physical environmental characteristics would differ between the upper and lower extents of the annually flooded riparian zone on the John Day River, and that relationships between species and environmental variables would display differences between these two zones. Vegetation, environmental variables, and relationships between them were assessed for the entire annually flooded riparian zone, and for the proposed upper and lower zones. Data were collected from 60 one-square-meter quadrats: 30 in each the upper and lower zones. Sites were randomly selected and located so that flood duration was roughly equal at all sites within each zone. 34 plant species were encountered: 25 in the upper zone, 27 in the lower zone. Wetland obligate and facultative wetland species groups and eight individual species accounted for statistically different percentages ofquadrat cover between zones. ANOSIM analysis identified two statistically distinct vegetation communities between the two zones. Soil texture averaged 75.85% sand and 20.81% fines. Sand ranged between 36.69% and 95.55%. Fines ranged between 2.54% and 58.84%. A horizon depths and fine soil particle concentrations were greater in the upper zone. Coarser soils with more sand and gravel dominated the lower zone. All enviromnental variables studied, except pH, were highly variable throughout the study area. ANOSIM analysis results suggest that the upper and lower zones have distinct, statistically different physical environments from each other. Regression analyses relating species quadrat cover to physical environmental variables were performed for the total, upper, and lower riparian zones. Numerous differences were identified between the upper and lower riparian zones that the riparian scale analyses did not represent accurately. There were ten instances in which the zone scale analyses identified a relationship in either the upper or lower zone, while the corresponding riparian scale analysis failed to identify any relationship. The results of this study indicate that vegetation and the physical environment are statistically different between the upper and lower zones on this river, and that relationships between a given plant species and environmental variable can vary between zones. Future research and management efforts should consider and address the potential for such between-zone variation. Close

• 33. [Article] Application of Numerical Modeling to Study River Dynamics: Hydro-Geomorphological Evolution Due to Extreme Events in the Sandy River, Oregon

  The Sandy River (OR) is a costal tributary of the Columbia River and has a steep hydroshed 1316 square kilometers which is located on the western side of Mount Hood (elevation range 3 m to 1800 m). The ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Application of Numerical Modeling to Study River Dynamics: Hydro-Geomorphological Evolution Due to Extreme Events in the Sandy River, Oregon Author: Muhammad, Sarkawt Hamarahim Year: 2017 The Sandy River (OR) is a costal tributary of the Columbia River and has a steep hydroshed 1316 square kilometers which is located on the western side of Mount Hood (elevation range 3 m to 1800 m). The system exhibits highly variable flow: Its average discharge is ~40 m3/s, and the highest recorded discharge was 1739 m3/s in 1964. In this study I model the geomorphic sensitivity of an 1800m reach located the downstream of the former Marmot Dam, which was removed in 2007. The hydro-geomorphic response to major flood has implications for system management and aquatic life. Studying hydro-geomorphic change requires a systematic approach. Here, I define flows and flood hydrographs for specified return interval based on the observed hydrologic record, and then examine potential hydro-geomorphic changes using a numerical model. A Pearson Type III distribution is used to calculate 100, 75, 50, 25, 10, and 2 year return periods. Extreme event hydrographs are derived by fitting derived and observed flood hydrographs to the gamma distribution curve. Sediment transport and geomorphology are then modeled numerically with Nays2DH, a solver that is part of iRIC software. Because the model is computationally intensive, I model the domain with five different spatial grid resolutions, to find proper grid resolution. The grid resolutions used are 1.5 m, 2 m, 3 m, 4 m, and 5 m. We choose 4 m as optimum grid resolution, based on the convergence of model results. The model is run for extreme event hydrographs with six above return periods. For result visualization and analysis, we focus on flow properties and bed elevation at peak flow and at the end of each event. For both times for each event, important flow and sediment transport parameters are visualized for the entire domain in plane form and eight cross-sections at 200 m intervals. Finally, we divide the geomorphic response into areas of erosion and deposition. Linear regression analyses of mean values of erosion and deposition at peak flow for all extreme events yield R2 of 0.981 for erosion and 0.986 for deposition. The mean erosion and deposition depth at the end of the events is modeled by nonlinear regression with correlation coefficient of 0.965 for erosion and 0.998 for deposition. The regression models provide direct understanding of impacts of different floods on the geomorphic response of the river domain. examination of the model as a whole suggest that the amount of erosion and deposition in the bed and banks is a function of channel geometry, bank and bed geology, riparian area condition and strongly depend on the amount of flow through the channel. Title: Application of Numerical Modeling to Study River Dynamics: Hydro-Geomorphological Evolution Due to Extreme Events in the Sandy River, Oregon Author: Muhammad, Sarkawt Hamarahim Year: 2017 The Sandy River (OR) is a costal tributary of the Columbia River and has a steep hydroshed 1316 square kilometers which is located on the western side of Mount Hood (elevation range 3 m to 1800 m). The system exhibits highly variable flow: Its average discharge is ~40 m3/s, and the highest recorded discharge was 1739 m3/s in 1964. In this study I model the geomorphic sensitivity of an 1800m reach located the downstream of the former Marmot Dam, which was removed in 2007. The hydro-geomorphic response to major flood has implications for system management and aquatic life. Studying hydro-geomorphic change requires a systematic approach. Here, I define flows and flood hydrographs for specified return interval based on the observed hydrologic record, and then examine potential hydro-geomorphic changes using a numerical model. A Pearson Type III distribution is used to calculate 100, 75, 50, 25, 10, and 2 year return periods. Extreme event hydrographs are derived by fitting derived and observed flood hydrographs to the gamma distribution curve. Sediment transport and geomorphology are then modeled numerically with Nays2DH, a solver that is part of iRIC software. Because the model is computationally intensive, I model the domain with five different spatial grid resolutions, to find proper grid resolution. The grid resolutions used are 1.5 m, 2 m, 3 m, 4 m, and 5 m. We choose 4 m as optimum grid resolution, based on the convergence of model results. The model is run for extreme event hydrographs with six above return periods. For result visualization and analysis, we focus on flow properties and bed elevation at peak flow and at the end of each event. For both times for each event, important flow and sediment transport parameters are visualized for the entire domain in plane form and eight cross-sections at 200 m intervals. Finally, we divide the geomorphic response into areas of erosion and deposition. Linear regression analyses of mean values of erosion and deposition at peak flow for all extreme events yield R2 of 0.981 for erosion and 0.986 for deposition. The mean erosion and deposition depth at the end of the events is modeled by nonlinear regression with correlation coefficient of 0.965 for erosion and 0.998 for deposition. The regression models provide direct understanding of impacts of different floods on the geomorphic response of the river domain. examination of the model as a whole suggest that the amount of erosion and deposition in the bed and banks is a function of channel geometry, bank and bed geology, riparian area condition and strongly depend on the amount of flow through the channel. Close

• 34. [Article] Portland State Perspective; June 1979

  A quarterly alumni newsletter. In this issue: master plan charts PSU's future; women engineers; anniversary of Vanport flood noted.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland State Perspective; June 1979 Author: Portland State University Year: 1979 A quarterly alumni newsletter. In this issue: master plan charts PSU's future; women engineers; anniversary of Vanport flood noted. Title: Portland State Perspective; June 1979 Author: Portland State University Year: 1979 A quarterly alumni newsletter. In this issue: master plan charts PSU's future; women engineers; anniversary of Vanport flood noted. Close

• 35. [Article] Detecting Change in Rainstorm Properties from 1977-2016 and Associated Future Flood Risks in Portland, Oregon

  In response to increased greenhouse gases and global temperatures, changes to the hydrologic cycle are projected to occur and new precipitation characteristics are expected to emerge. The study of these ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Detecting Change in Rainstorm Properties from 1977-2016 and Associated Future Flood Risks in Portland, Oregon Author: Cooley, Alexis Kirsten Year: 2017 In response to increased greenhouse gases and global temperatures, changes to the hydrologic cycle are projected to occur and new precipitation characteristics are expected to emerge. The study of these characteristics is facilitated by common indices to measure precipitation and temperature developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). These indices can be used to describe the likely consequences of climate change such as increased daily precipitation intensity (SDII) and heavier rainfall events (R95p). This study calculates a subset of these indices from observed and modelled precipitation data in Portland, Oregon. Five rainfall gages from a high resolution rain gage network and projections from three downscaled global climate models including CanESM2, CESM1, CNRM-CM5 are used to calculate precipitation indices. Mann-Kendall's tau is used to detect monotonic trends in indices. The observational record is compared with models for the historic period (1977-2005) and these past trends are compared with projected future trends (2006-2100). The influence of study unit on trend detection is analyzed by computing trends at the annual and monthly scale. Study unit is show to be important for trend detection. When the annual study unit is used, projected future trends towards increased precipitation intensity and event volumes are not observed in the historic data. However, when analyzed with a monthly study unit, trends towards increased precipitation intensity and event volumes are observed in the historic data. These trends are shown to be important for Portland area flooding, as precipitation indices are shown to significantly correlate with 40 maximum peak flow events that occurred during the period of study. Title: Detecting Change in Rainstorm Properties from 1977-2016 and Associated Future Flood Risks in Portland, Oregon Author: Cooley, Alexis Kirsten Year: 2017 In response to increased greenhouse gases and global temperatures, changes to the hydrologic cycle are projected to occur and new precipitation characteristics are expected to emerge. The study of these characteristics is facilitated by common indices to measure precipitation and temperature developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). These indices can be used to describe the likely consequences of climate change such as increased daily precipitation intensity (SDII) and heavier rainfall events (R95p). This study calculates a subset of these indices from observed and modelled precipitation data in Portland, Oregon. Five rainfall gages from a high resolution rain gage network and projections from three downscaled global climate models including CanESM2, CESM1, CNRM-CM5 are used to calculate precipitation indices. Mann-Kendall's tau is used to detect monotonic trends in indices. The observational record is compared with models for the historic period (1977-2005) and these past trends are compared with projected future trends (2006-2100). The influence of study unit on trend detection is analyzed by computing trends at the annual and monthly scale. Study unit is show to be important for trend detection. When the annual study unit is used, projected future trends towards increased precipitation intensity and event volumes are not observed in the historic data. However, when analyzed with a monthly study unit, trends towards increased precipitation intensity and event volumes are observed in the historic data. These trends are shown to be important for Portland area flooding, as precipitation indices are shown to significantly correlate with 40 maximum peak flow events that occurred during the period of study. Close

• 36. [Article] Delivering Green Streets: an Exploration of Changing Perceptions and Behaviours Over Time Around Bioswales in Portland, Oregon

  Green Infrastructure (GI) is an increasingly popular means of dealing with flooding and water quality issues worldwide. This study examines public perceptions of, and behaviour around, bioswales, which ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Delivering Green Streets: an Exploration of Changing Perceptions and Behaviours Over Time Around Bioswales in Portland, Oregon Author: Everett, Glyn, Lamond, Jessica, Morzillo, Anita T., Matsler, Annie Marissa, Chan, Faith Ka Shun Year: 2015 Green Infrastructure (GI) is an increasingly popular means of dealing with flooding and water quality issues worldwide. This study examines public perceptions of, and behaviour around, bioswales, which are a popular GI facility in the United States. Bioswales are highly visible interventions requiring support from residents and policy-makers to be implemented and maintained appropriately. To understand how the residents’ perceptions and attitudes might develop over time, we interviewed residents of Portland, Oregon, living near bioswales installed 1–2, 4–5 and 8–9 years ago, to determine awareness, understanding, and opinions about the devices. We found no consistent patterns across time periods, but did find common issues affecting residents’ appreciation and acceptance: environmental attitudes, awareness and understanding of purpose and function, plant choice and maintenance, and mess and littering. It was apparent that increased public engagement, localised maintenance strategies, and possibly even customising facilities to meet residents’ needs where feasible, might improve acceptance. Title: Delivering Green Streets: an Exploration of Changing Perceptions and Behaviours Over Time Around Bioswales in Portland, Oregon Author: Everett, Glyn, Lamond, Jessica, Morzillo, Anita T., Matsler, Annie Marissa, Chan, Faith Ka Shun Year: 2015 Green Infrastructure (GI) is an increasingly popular means of dealing with flooding and water quality issues worldwide. This study examines public perceptions of, and behaviour around, bioswales, which are a popular GI facility in the United States. Bioswales are highly visible interventions requiring support from residents and policy-makers to be implemented and maintained appropriately. To understand how the residents’ perceptions and attitudes might develop over time, we interviewed residents of Portland, Oregon, living near bioswales installed 1–2, 4–5 and 8–9 years ago, to determine awareness, understanding, and opinions about the devices. We found no consistent patterns across time periods, but did find common issues affecting residents’ appreciation and acceptance: environmental attitudes, awareness and understanding of purpose and function, plant choice and maintenance, and mess and littering. It was apparent that increased public engagement, localised maintenance strategies, and possibly even customising facilities to meet residents’ needs where feasible, might improve acceptance. Close

• 37. [Article] Production, Oxidation, and Emissions of Methane from Rice Fields in China

  Detailed field studies of methane emissions from rice fields show that when nitrogen fertilizers are used with intermittent irrigation the seasonal average flux is about 3 mg/m²/hr. When continuous flooding ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Production, Oxidation, and Emissions of Methane from Rice Fields in China Author: Khalil, M. A. K., Shearer, Martha J., Rasmussen, R. A., Duan, Chang-Lin, Ren, Lixin Year: 2008 Detailed field studies of methane emissions from rice fields show that when nitrogen fertilizers are used with intermittent irrigation the seasonal average flux is about 3 mg/m²/hr. When continuous flooding and organic material is added to the same fields, the emissions rise to nearly 30 mg/m²/hr. Production rates measured during the two years when both organic material and water were applied to these fields were found to be 60 and 90 mg/m²/hr in consecutive years. The fraction oxidized is calculated to be about 80% one year and 43% the next year. The results suggest that high organic fertilizer increases production, but may affect the emissions more by reducing oxidation. The data show that seasonally averaged emissions vary by up to factor of 2 among adjacent fields but the variability of production is only about 20%. Information obtained from the farmers suggests that there is a trend towards less use of organic manure as nitrogen fertilizers have become available and the occurrence of intermittent flooding has increased for various reasons. These conditions have likely led to decreasing emissions of methane from rice fields in China in the recent decades. Title: Production, Oxidation, and Emissions of Methane from Rice Fields in China Author: Khalil, M. A. K., Shearer, Martha J., Rasmussen, R. A., Duan, Chang-Lin, Ren, Lixin Year: 2008 Detailed field studies of methane emissions from rice fields show that when nitrogen fertilizers are used with intermittent irrigation the seasonal average flux is about 3 mg/m²/hr. When continuous flooding and organic material is added to the same fields, the emissions rise to nearly 30 mg/m²/hr. Production rates measured during the two years when both organic material and water were applied to these fields were found to be 60 and 90 mg/m²/hr in consecutive years. The fraction oxidized is calculated to be about 80% one year and 43% the next year. The results suggest that high organic fertilizer increases production, but may affect the emissions more by reducing oxidation. The data show that seasonally averaged emissions vary by up to factor of 2 among adjacent fields but the variability of production is only about 20%. Information obtained from the farmers suggests that there is a trend towards less use of organic manure as nitrogen fertilizers have become available and the occurrence of intermittent flooding has increased for various reasons. These conditions have likely led to decreasing emissions of methane from rice fields in China in the recent decades. Close

• 38. [Article] Predictive Time Series Analysis Linking Bengal Cholera with Terrestrial Water Storage Measured from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Sensors

  Outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, including cholera, are related to floods and droughts in regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate or insufficient. However, availability of data ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Predictive Time Series Analysis Linking Bengal Cholera with Terrestrial Water Storage Measured from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Sensors Author: Jutla, Antarpreet, Akanda, Ali, Unnikrishnan, Avinash, Huq, Anwar, Colwell, Rita Year: 2015 Outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, including cholera, are related to floods and droughts in regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate or insufficient. However, availability of data on water scarcity and abundance in transnational basins, are a prerequisite for developing cholera forecasting systems. With more than a decade of terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, conditions favorable for predicting cholera occurrence may now be determined. We explored lead–lag relationships between TWS in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin and endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Since bimodal seasonal peaks in cholera in Bangladesh occur during spring and autumn seasons, two separate logistical models between TWS and disease time series (2002–2010) were developed. TWS representing water availability showed an asymmetrical, strong association with cholera prevalence in the spring (τ = −0.53; P < 0.001) and autumn (τ = 0.45; P < 0.001) up to 6 months in advance. One unit (centimeter of water) decrease in water availability in the basin increased odds of above normal cholera by 24% (confidence interval [CI] = 20–31%; P < 0.05) in the spring, while an increase in regional water by 1 unit, through floods, increased odds of above average cholera in the autumn by 29% (CI = 22–33%; P < 0.05). Title: Predictive Time Series Analysis Linking Bengal Cholera with Terrestrial Water Storage Measured from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Sensors Author: Jutla, Antarpreet, Akanda, Ali, Unnikrishnan, Avinash, Huq, Anwar, Colwell, Rita Year: 2015 Outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, including cholera, are related to floods and droughts in regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate or insufficient. However, availability of data on water scarcity and abundance in transnational basins, are a prerequisite for developing cholera forecasting systems. With more than a decade of terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, conditions favorable for predicting cholera occurrence may now be determined. We explored lead–lag relationships between TWS in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin and endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Since bimodal seasonal peaks in cholera in Bangladesh occur during spring and autumn seasons, two separate logistical models between TWS and disease time series (2002–2010) were developed. TWS representing water availability showed an asymmetrical, strong association with cholera prevalence in the spring (τ = −0.53; P < 0.001) and autumn (τ = 0.45; P < 0.001) up to 6 months in advance. One unit (centimeter of water) decrease in water availability in the basin increased odds of above normal cholera by 24% (confidence interval [CI] = 20–31%; P < 0.05) in the spring, while an increase in regional water by 1 unit, through floods, increased odds of above average cholera in the autumn by 29% (CI = 22–33%; P < 0.05). Close

• 39. [Article] Integrated hydrologic and hydrochemical observations of Hidden Creek Lake jökulhlaups, Kennicott Glacier, Alaska

  Hidden Creek Lake (HCL), an ice-marginal lake impounded by Kennicott Glacier, Wrangell Mountains, Alaska, fills annually to ~20 to 30 x ~10⁶ m³ and then drains subglacially within 2 to 3 days. During the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Integrated hydrologic and hydrochemical observations of Hidden Creek Lake jökulhlaups, Kennicott Glacier, Alaska Author: Anderson, Suzanne P., Walder, Joseph S., Anderson, Robert S., Kraal, Erin R., Cunico, Michelle, Fountain, Andrew G., Trabant, Dennis C. Year: 2003 Hidden Creek Lake (HCL), an ice-marginal lake impounded by Kennicott Glacier, Wrangell Mountains, Alaska, fills annually to ~20 to 30 x ~10⁶ m³ and then drains subglacially within 2 to 3 days. During the 1999 and 2000 jökulhlaups, we carried out a series of planned observations around the lake and in the Kennicott River, which drains the glacier. Approximately 20% of the lake volume was contained within a subglacial water ‘‘wedge’’ beneath the ice dam. The entire volume of the lake drains through the wedge; hydraulic head loss through this constriction may be responsible for the fairly symmetrical shape of the HCL outflow hydrographs, deduced from lake level records, basin hypsometry, and collapse of the ice dam. The flood hydrographs in the Kennicott River are similar in shape to the outflow hydrographs, and within error, lake volume matched the river flood volume in both years. Up to 12 x 10⁶ m³ of water was temporarily stored within the glacier during the 2000 jökulhlaup. During the 2000 jökulhlaup the background flow in the Kennicott River shifted to a dilute chemical composition. As the HCL jökulhlaup progressed, Donoho Falls Lake filled with water whose chemistry was closer to that of the background flow in Kennicott River than to HCL water. Comparison of these chemical signals with typical summer variations in Kennicott River chemistry suggests that the jökulhlaup created high subglacial water pressure that impeded normal drainage of solute-rich water from a distributed drainage system into a conduit system at the glacier bed and even caused flow direction locally to reverse. Title: Integrated hydrologic and hydrochemical observations of Hidden Creek Lake jökulhlaups, Kennicott Glacier, Alaska Author: Anderson, Suzanne P., Walder, Joseph S., Anderson, Robert S., Kraal, Erin R., Cunico, Michelle, Fountain, Andrew G., Trabant, Dennis C. Year: 2003 Hidden Creek Lake (HCL), an ice-marginal lake impounded by Kennicott Glacier, Wrangell Mountains, Alaska, fills annually to ~20 to 30 x ~10⁶ m³ and then drains subglacially within 2 to 3 days. During the 1999 and 2000 jökulhlaups, we carried out a series of planned observations around the lake and in the Kennicott River, which drains the glacier. Approximately 20% of the lake volume was contained within a subglacial water ‘‘wedge’’ beneath the ice dam. The entire volume of the lake drains through the wedge; hydraulic head loss through this constriction may be responsible for the fairly symmetrical shape of the HCL outflow hydrographs, deduced from lake level records, basin hypsometry, and collapse of the ice dam. The flood hydrographs in the Kennicott River are similar in shape to the outflow hydrographs, and within error, lake volume matched the river flood volume in both years. Up to 12 x 10⁶ m³ of water was temporarily stored within the glacier during the 2000 jökulhlaup. During the 2000 jökulhlaup the background flow in the Kennicott River shifted to a dilute chemical composition. As the HCL jökulhlaup progressed, Donoho Falls Lake filled with water whose chemistry was closer to that of the background flow in Kennicott River than to HCL water. Comparison of these chemical signals with typical summer variations in Kennicott River chemistry suggests that the jökulhlaup created high subglacial water pressure that impeded normal drainage of solute-rich water from a distributed drainage system into a conduit system at the glacier bed and even caused flow direction locally to reverse. Close

• 40. [Article] Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain Wetlands Under Contrasting Land Uses

  Whether through sea level rise or wetland restoration, agricultural soils in coastal areas will be inundated at increasing rates, renewing connections to sensitive surface waters and raising critical questions ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain Wetlands Under Contrasting Land Uses Author: Morse, Jennifer L., Ardón, Marcelo, Bernhardt, Emily S. Year: 2012 Whether through sea level rise or wetland restoration, agricultural soils in coastal areas will be inundated at increasing rates, renewing connections to sensitive surface waters and raising critical questions about environmental trade-offs. Wetland restoration is often implemented in agricultural catchments to improve water quality through nutrient removal. Yet flooding of soils can also increase production of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane, representing a potential environmental trade-off. Our study aimed to quantify and compare greenhouse gas emissions from unmanaged and restored forested wetlands, as well as actively managed agricultural fields within the North Carolina coastal plain, USA. In sampling conducted once every two months over a two-year comparative study, we found that soil carbon dioxide flux (range: 8000–64 800 kg CO2·ha-1· yr-1) comprised 66–100% of total greenhouse gas emissions from all sites and that methane emissions (range: -6.87 to 197 kg CH4·ha-1·yr-1) were highest from permanently inundated sites, while nitrous oxide fluxes (range: -1.07 to 139 kg N2O·ha-1·yr-1) were highest in sites with lower water tables. Contrary to predictions, greenhouse gas fluxes (as CO2 equivalents) from the restored wetland were lower than from either agricultural fields or unmanaged forested wetlands. In these acidic coastal freshwater ecosystems, the conversion of agricultural fields to flooded young forested wetlands did not result in increases in greenhouse gas emissions. Title: Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain Wetlands Under Contrasting Land Uses Author: Morse, Jennifer L., Ardón, Marcelo, Bernhardt, Emily S. Year: 2012 Whether through sea level rise or wetland restoration, agricultural soils in coastal areas will be inundated at increasing rates, renewing connections to sensitive surface waters and raising critical questions about environmental trade-offs. Wetland restoration is often implemented in agricultural catchments to improve water quality through nutrient removal. Yet flooding of soils can also increase production of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane, representing a potential environmental trade-off. Our study aimed to quantify and compare greenhouse gas emissions from unmanaged and restored forested wetlands, as well as actively managed agricultural fields within the North Carolina coastal plain, USA. In sampling conducted once every two months over a two-year comparative study, we found that soil carbon dioxide flux (range: 8000–64 800 kg CO2·ha-1· yr-1) comprised 66–100% of total greenhouse gas emissions from all sites and that methane emissions (range: -6.87 to 197 kg CH4·ha-1·yr-1) were highest from permanently inundated sites, while nitrous oxide fluxes (range: -1.07 to 139 kg N2O·ha-1·yr-1) were highest in sites with lower water tables. Contrary to predictions, greenhouse gas fluxes (as CO2 equivalents) from the restored wetland were lower than from either agricultural fields or unmanaged forested wetlands. In these acidic coastal freshwater ecosystems, the conversion of agricultural fields to flooded young forested wetlands did not result in increases in greenhouse gas emissions. Close