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• 31. [Article] Understanding the Importance of Intermittently Fragmented Stream Habitat for Isolated Westslope Cutthroat Trout (<i>Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi</i>) in the Colville National Forest, Washington

  Climate change and anthropogenic effects have vastly reduced Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, WCT) habitat throughout their range, including the Colville National Forest in northeastern ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Understanding the Importance of Intermittently Fragmented Stream Habitat for Isolated Westslope Cutthroat Trout (<i>Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi</i>) in the Colville National Forest, Washington Author: Carpenter, Forrest Michael Year: 2016 Climate change and anthropogenic effects have vastly reduced Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, WCT) habitat throughout their range, including the Colville National Forest in northeastern Washington where this study was conducted. Many native salmonid populations have declined in abundance since the early 1900s due to a variety of climate- and human-driven forces. Westslope Cutthroat Trout are especially sensitive to habitat loss or degradation and to climate change. Together, climate change, habitat degradation, and non-native salmonid invasions are contributing to increasingly fragmented WCT populations. Ongoing and predicted future warming trends are expected to further fragment these populations and isolate them in headwater stream reaches, with populations in the spatial margins of their distributions facing greater risk. Native salmonid populations are often separated or isolated by natural or artificial upstream migration barriers (i.e., waterfalls, culverts, etc.). Prior to continuing conservation and management actions targeting WCT, it is imperative to understand habitat requirements of this keystone species in fragmented areas. Field survey data were collected in the summer of 2015 on channel geomorphic characteristics and WCT presence/absence in 26 streams located in the Colville National Forest. A clear spatial separation was observed between Eastern Brook Trout (Salvenius fontinalis, EBT) and WCT above four culvert road crossings and the habitat in both of these areas was compared statistically to identify explicit differences. This dataset was also analyzed using logistic regression modeling to determine the best habitat predictors of the presence of isolated WCT populations existing upstream of these crossing. In general, stream habitat in the Middle and South Forks of Mill Creek had low large substrate, high fine sediments, and exhibited pool-riffle channel morphology. Pool habitat supporting isolated WCT was significantly smaller, in terms of volume and surface area, than pool habitat supporting sympatric populations of WCT and EBT, largely due to the headwater nature of channel units supporting isolated WCT populations. Additionally, due to the extreme drought conditions during 2015, stream flow was substantially diminished in the study area causing these reaches to be highly fragmented and largely disconnected from the rest of the stream channel. Fine sediments were generally higher in headwater reaches supporting isolated WCT, including in pools and riffles, which was unexpected, mainly because they exist above sediment delivery points in the longitudinal extent of the system. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the presence of isolated WCT populations was primarily positively associated with an increase in large wood and boulders, and negatively associated with increasing gravel, bedrock, habitat unit length, depth, and width (Significant x2, R2=0.174, misclassification rate = 14.9%, α=0.05). The final model correctly predicted 37.5% of isolated WCT presence observations and 96.5% of the WCT/EBT presence observations significantly better than by chance alone (k=0.81). This model, in fact, may be useful in identifying limited habitat due to the fragmented nature of the channel units supporting IWCT. Large wood and boulders were positively correlated to WCT presence, likely because both are important in the formation of pools and cascades. Channel unit length, width, depth, active channel width as well as gravel and bedrock substrates, were all negatively associated with WCT presence. This suggests that isolated WCT are primarily associated with small headwater cascades with complex shelter, which may provide greater thermal and predation refuge compared to shallow glide or large pool habitats. Future model analysis should include additional habitat variables such as water temperature, stream gradient, and species interactions to strengthen the prediction of Westslope Cutthroat Trout presence. Overall, I concluded that differences in stream habitat above and below blocking culverts are not driving Westslope Cutthroat Trout distributions in the study area due to confounding factors such as the presence of problematic barriers and small sample size. I also conclude that future conservation and management decisions specific to WCT should prioritize complex cascade habitat in headwater stream reaches because of the type and quantity of habitat they may provide, especially during severe drought or low flow conditions. Title: Understanding the Importance of Intermittently Fragmented Stream Habitat for Isolated Westslope Cutthroat Trout (<i>Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi</i>) in the Colville National Forest, Washington Author: Carpenter, Forrest Michael Year: 2016 Climate change and anthropogenic effects have vastly reduced Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, WCT) habitat throughout their range, including the Colville National Forest in northeastern Washington where this study was conducted. Many native salmonid populations have declined in abundance since the early 1900s due to a variety of climate- and human-driven forces. Westslope Cutthroat Trout are especially sensitive to habitat loss or degradation and to climate change. Together, climate change, habitat degradation, and non-native salmonid invasions are contributing to increasingly fragmented WCT populations. Ongoing and predicted future warming trends are expected to further fragment these populations and isolate them in headwater stream reaches, with populations in the spatial margins of their distributions facing greater risk. Native salmonid populations are often separated or isolated by natural or artificial upstream migration barriers (i.e., waterfalls, culverts, etc.). Prior to continuing conservation and management actions targeting WCT, it is imperative to understand habitat requirements of this keystone species in fragmented areas. Field survey data were collected in the summer of 2015 on channel geomorphic characteristics and WCT presence/absence in 26 streams located in the Colville National Forest. A clear spatial separation was observed between Eastern Brook Trout (Salvenius fontinalis, EBT) and WCT above four culvert road crossings and the habitat in both of these areas was compared statistically to identify explicit differences. This dataset was also analyzed using logistic regression modeling to determine the best habitat predictors of the presence of isolated WCT populations existing upstream of these crossing. In general, stream habitat in the Middle and South Forks of Mill Creek had low large substrate, high fine sediments, and exhibited pool-riffle channel morphology. Pool habitat supporting isolated WCT was significantly smaller, in terms of volume and surface area, than pool habitat supporting sympatric populations of WCT and EBT, largely due to the headwater nature of channel units supporting isolated WCT populations. Additionally, due to the extreme drought conditions during 2015, stream flow was substantially diminished in the study area causing these reaches to be highly fragmented and largely disconnected from the rest of the stream channel. Fine sediments were generally higher in headwater reaches supporting isolated WCT, including in pools and riffles, which was unexpected, mainly because they exist above sediment delivery points in the longitudinal extent of the system. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the presence of isolated WCT populations was primarily positively associated with an increase in large wood and boulders, and negatively associated with increasing gravel, bedrock, habitat unit length, depth, and width (Significant x2, R2=0.174, misclassification rate = 14.9%, α=0.05). The final model correctly predicted 37.5% of isolated WCT presence observations and 96.5% of the WCT/EBT presence observations significantly better than by chance alone (k=0.81). This model, in fact, may be useful in identifying limited habitat due to the fragmented nature of the channel units supporting IWCT. Large wood and boulders were positively correlated to WCT presence, likely because both are important in the formation of pools and cascades. Channel unit length, width, depth, active channel width as well as gravel and bedrock substrates, were all negatively associated with WCT presence. This suggests that isolated WCT are primarily associated with small headwater cascades with complex shelter, which may provide greater thermal and predation refuge compared to shallow glide or large pool habitats. Future model analysis should include additional habitat variables such as water temperature, stream gradient, and species interactions to strengthen the prediction of Westslope Cutthroat Trout presence. Overall, I concluded that differences in stream habitat above and below blocking culverts are not driving Westslope Cutthroat Trout distributions in the study area due to confounding factors such as the presence of problematic barriers and small sample size. I also conclude that future conservation and management decisions specific to WCT should prioritize complex cascade habitat in headwater stream reaches because of the type and quantity of habitat they may provide, especially during severe drought or low flow conditions. Close

• 32. [Article] Assessing a Fluorescence Spectroscopy Method for In-Situ Microbial Drinking Water Quality

  Waterborne disease is a significant contributor to the global burden of disease, in particular among high-risk populations in developing nations. State-of-the-art methods for the enumeration of microbial ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing a Fluorescence Spectroscopy Method for In-Situ Microbial Drinking Water Quality Author: Sharpe, Taylor Jeffery Year: 2017 Waterborne disease is a significant contributor to the global burden of disease, in particular among high-risk populations in developing nations. State-of-the-art methods for the enumeration of microbial pathogens in drinking water sources have important limitations, including high initial cost, 24-48 hour delays in results, high staffing and facility requirements, and training requirements which all become especially problematic in the developing nation context. A number of alternative approaches to microbial water quality testing have been proposed, with the goal of decreasing the required testing time, decreasing overall costs, leveraging appropriate technology approaches, or improving sensitivity or specificity of the water quality testing method. One approach that may offer solutions to some of these limitations involves the deployment of sensor networks using fluorescent spectroscopy to detect intrinsic protein fluorescence in water samples as a proxy for microbial activity. In recent years, a number of researchers have found significant and meaningful correlations between indicator bacteria species and the protein fluorescence of drinking water samples. Additionally, advances in the semiconductor industry could be used to drive down the cost of such sensors. This technology may also be extensible to other water quality parameters, including dissolved organic matter or the presence of fluorescent pollutants. In this thesis, a literature review describes the fundamentals of fluorescence spectroscopy, historical and recent work regarding the fluorescence of the amino acid tryptophan and associated bacterial fluorescence, possible mechanisms for this association, and potential applications of this technology for drinking water quality monitoring and waste water process control. Extensibility of the technology is also discussed. Next, experimental methodology in reproduction of similar results is described. Samples were taken from seven (7) surface water sources and tested using membrane filtration and an off-the-shelf fluorescence spectrometer to help examine the association between the presence of indicator bacteria and the tryptophan fluorescence of the water sample. The results, showing an association of R2 = 0.560, are compared to the results of recent similar experiments. Finally, two prototypes are described, including their design requirements and data from prototype testing. The results of the testing are briefly discussed, and next steps are outlined with the goal of developing a low-cost, in-situ microbial water quality sensor using fluorescence spectroscopy principles. Title: Assessing a Fluorescence Spectroscopy Method for In-Situ Microbial Drinking Water Quality Author: Sharpe, Taylor Jeffery Year: 2017 Waterborne disease is a significant contributor to the global burden of disease, in particular among high-risk populations in developing nations. State-of-the-art methods for the enumeration of microbial pathogens in drinking water sources have important limitations, including high initial cost, 24-48 hour delays in results, high staffing and facility requirements, and training requirements which all become especially problematic in the developing nation context. A number of alternative approaches to microbial water quality testing have been proposed, with the goal of decreasing the required testing time, decreasing overall costs, leveraging appropriate technology approaches, or improving sensitivity or specificity of the water quality testing method. One approach that may offer solutions to some of these limitations involves the deployment of sensor networks using fluorescent spectroscopy to detect intrinsic protein fluorescence in water samples as a proxy for microbial activity. In recent years, a number of researchers have found significant and meaningful correlations between indicator bacteria species and the protein fluorescence of drinking water samples. Additionally, advances in the semiconductor industry could be used to drive down the cost of such sensors. This technology may also be extensible to other water quality parameters, including dissolved organic matter or the presence of fluorescent pollutants. In this thesis, a literature review describes the fundamentals of fluorescence spectroscopy, historical and recent work regarding the fluorescence of the amino acid tryptophan and associated bacterial fluorescence, possible mechanisms for this association, and potential applications of this technology for drinking water quality monitoring and waste water process control. Extensibility of the technology is also discussed. Next, experimental methodology in reproduction of similar results is described. Samples were taken from seven (7) surface water sources and tested using membrane filtration and an off-the-shelf fluorescence spectrometer to help examine the association between the presence of indicator bacteria and the tryptophan fluorescence of the water sample. The results, showing an association of R2 = 0.560, are compared to the results of recent similar experiments. Finally, two prototypes are described, including their design requirements and data from prototype testing. The results of the testing are briefly discussed, and next steps are outlined with the goal of developing a low-cost, in-situ microbial water quality sensor using fluorescence spectroscopy principles. Close

• 33. [Article] Development of an Atmospheric Pressure Laser Induced Fluorimeter (AP-LIF) for NO₂ and Application of AP-LIF for Study of Heterogeneous NO₂ Chemistry

  Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) is a pollutant of interest for study both because of its controlling role in the oxidant capacity of the atmosphere and the health risks it poses. Concerns about the health effects ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Development of an Atmospheric Pressure Laser Induced Fluorimeter (AP-LIF) for NO₂ and Application of AP-LIF for Study of Heterogeneous NO₂ Chemistry Author: Parra, Jeremy Year: 2012 Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) is a pollutant of interest for study both because of its controlling role in the oxidant capacity of the atmosphere and the health risks it poses. Concerns about the health effects of NO₂ and its role in forming deleterious atmospheric species have made it desirable to have low-cost, sensitive ambient measurements of NO₂. A continuous-wave laser-diode laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) system for NO₂ was developed here which operates at ambient pressure, thereby eliminating the need for an expensive pumping system. The current prototype system has achieved sensitivity several orders of magnitude beyond previous efforts at ambient pressure (limit of detection of 2 ppb, 60 s averaging time). Ambient measurements of NO₂ were made in Portland, Oregon using both the standard NO₂ chemiluminescence method and the LIF instrument and showed good agreement (r² = 0.92). In addition, investigations into surface mediated chemistry involving oxides of nitrogen (namely, NO₂) have stimulated new inquiry into potential heterogeneous sources of NO₂ as well as challenged the stability of permanent sinks for NO₂. The possibility that surface mediated chemistry plays a significant role in NOy chemistry in urban air has for the past few decades received considerable attention. The AP-LIF NO₂ instrument is uniquely suited to measure surface chemistry under near ambient conditions. The so called 'renoxification' reaction of gaseous NO with surface bound HNO₃ yielding NO₂ (2HNO₃(surface) + NO--> 3NO₂ +H₂O(surface)) was suggested as a potentially important source of NO₂ which also degraded the stability of nitric acid as a sink of active oxides of nitrogen. Yet, there is disagreement in the literature as to the importance of this reaction. The disagreement stems from differing measurements of the rate for the renoxification reaction. Because there are differences in experimental setups no one research group has studied the renoxification reaction under ambient conditions, i.e., at moderate concentrations of NOy and in a static cell held at 1 atm. In this work, the production of NO₂ was measured using a novel AP-LIF. This setup made it possible to measure the rate of production of NO₂ due to the heterogeneous reaction of NO with HNO₃ under ambient conditions. Under these conditions it was found that renoxification due to gas-phase NO on surface HNO₃ is not a significant source of NO₂. However, this study did show the importance of water vapor in the renoxification of surface HNO₃. Title: Development of an Atmospheric Pressure Laser Induced Fluorimeter (AP-LIF) for NO₂ and Application of AP-LIF for Study of Heterogeneous NO₂ Chemistry Author: Parra, Jeremy Year: 2012 Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) is a pollutant of interest for study both because of its controlling role in the oxidant capacity of the atmosphere and the health risks it poses. Concerns about the health effects of NO₂ and its role in forming deleterious atmospheric species have made it desirable to have low-cost, sensitive ambient measurements of NO₂. A continuous-wave laser-diode laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) system for NO₂ was developed here which operates at ambient pressure, thereby eliminating the need for an expensive pumping system. The current prototype system has achieved sensitivity several orders of magnitude beyond previous efforts at ambient pressure (limit of detection of 2 ppb, 60 s averaging time). Ambient measurements of NO₂ were made in Portland, Oregon using both the standard NO₂ chemiluminescence method and the LIF instrument and showed good agreement (r² = 0.92). In addition, investigations into surface mediated chemistry involving oxides of nitrogen (namely, NO₂) have stimulated new inquiry into potential heterogeneous sources of NO₂ as well as challenged the stability of permanent sinks for NO₂. The possibility that surface mediated chemistry plays a significant role in NOy chemistry in urban air has for the past few decades received considerable attention. The AP-LIF NO₂ instrument is uniquely suited to measure surface chemistry under near ambient conditions. The so called 'renoxification' reaction of gaseous NO with surface bound HNO₃ yielding NO₂ (2HNO₃(surface) + NO--> 3NO₂ +H₂O(surface)) was suggested as a potentially important source of NO₂ which also degraded the stability of nitric acid as a sink of active oxides of nitrogen. Yet, there is disagreement in the literature as to the importance of this reaction. The disagreement stems from differing measurements of the rate for the renoxification reaction. Because there are differences in experimental setups no one research group has studied the renoxification reaction under ambient conditions, i.e., at moderate concentrations of NOy and in a static cell held at 1 atm. In this work, the production of NO₂ was measured using a novel AP-LIF. This setup made it possible to measure the rate of production of NO₂ due to the heterogeneous reaction of NO with HNO₃ under ambient conditions. Under these conditions it was found that renoxification due to gas-phase NO on surface HNO₃ is not a significant source of NO₂. However, this study did show the importance of water vapor in the renoxification of surface HNO₃. Close

• 34. [Article] Recreational Boats as Potential Vectors of Marine Organisms at an Invasion Hotspot

  With more than 200 aquatic nonindigenous species (NIS), San Francisco Bay (California, USA) is among the world’s most invaded harbors. Hard-substratum benthic (biofouling) organisms, which dominate NIS ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Recreational Boats as Potential Vectors of Marine Organisms at an Invasion Hotspot Author: Davidson, Ian C., Zabin, Chela J., Chang, Andrew L., Brown, Christopher W., Sytsma, Mark, Ruiz, Gregory M. Year: 2010 With more than 200 aquatic nonindigenous species (NIS), San Francisco Bay (California, USA) is among the world’s most invaded harbors. Hard-substratum benthic (biofouling) organisms, which dominate NIS richness, have arrived primarily as a result of shipping and aquaculture activity over past centuries. To date there has been no assessment of the leisure craft vector in the Bay. We aimed to characterize (1) biofouling on boats’ submerged surfaces and (2) boater behavior likely to affect the risk of NIS transfers. We used an underwater pole-cam, specimen collections, and a boater questionnaire to quantify the extent and composition of biofouling on recreational boats and to evaluate boater behavior at a subset of the Bay’s marinas. Several NIS, already established within the Bay, were recorded from vessel hulls, including the bryozoans Bugula neritina, Membranipora chesapeakensis and Watersipora sp., the ascidians Botrylloides violaceus, Styela clava and Ciona intestinalis, the polychaete Ficopomatus enigmaticus, and the sponge Clathria prolifera. Only 16% of questionnaire respondents had traveled to sites outside the Bay in the previous 12 mo. Frequency of hull painting and cleaning varied substantially, but we did not find strong patterns of biofouling extent associated with hull husbandry or boat usage. The potential for within-Bay and coastwise regional spread of NIS is high, and recreational boats probably interact in close proximity to other vectors (e.g. commercial ships), causing a ratchet effect of vector events; however, there remains a gap in understanding the levels and condition of biofouling on transient boats. Transient vessels from San Francisco Bay and other West Coast sites should be the focus of future studies to evaluate the extent to which organisms are being transferred among bays and how vector management could be applied to prevent NIS transfers and impacts. Title: Recreational Boats as Potential Vectors of Marine Organisms at an Invasion Hotspot Author: Davidson, Ian C., Zabin, Chela J., Chang, Andrew L., Brown, Christopher W., Sytsma, Mark, Ruiz, Gregory M. Year: 2010 With more than 200 aquatic nonindigenous species (NIS), San Francisco Bay (California, USA) is among the world’s most invaded harbors. Hard-substratum benthic (biofouling) organisms, which dominate NIS richness, have arrived primarily as a result of shipping and aquaculture activity over past centuries. To date there has been no assessment of the leisure craft vector in the Bay. We aimed to characterize (1) biofouling on boats’ submerged surfaces and (2) boater behavior likely to affect the risk of NIS transfers. We used an underwater pole-cam, specimen collections, and a boater questionnaire to quantify the extent and composition of biofouling on recreational boats and to evaluate boater behavior at a subset of the Bay’s marinas. Several NIS, already established within the Bay, were recorded from vessel hulls, including the bryozoans Bugula neritina, Membranipora chesapeakensis and Watersipora sp., the ascidians Botrylloides violaceus, Styela clava and Ciona intestinalis, the polychaete Ficopomatus enigmaticus, and the sponge Clathria prolifera. Only 16% of questionnaire respondents had traveled to sites outside the Bay in the previous 12 mo. Frequency of hull painting and cleaning varied substantially, but we did not find strong patterns of biofouling extent associated with hull husbandry or boat usage. The potential for within-Bay and coastwise regional spread of NIS is high, and recreational boats probably interact in close proximity to other vectors (e.g. commercial ships), causing a ratchet effect of vector events; however, there remains a gap in understanding the levels and condition of biofouling on transient boats. Transient vessels from San Francisco Bay and other West Coast sites should be the focus of future studies to evaluate the extent to which organisms are being transferred among bays and how vector management could be applied to prevent NIS transfers and impacts. Close

• 35. [Article] Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

  Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity Author: Rockström, Johan, Steffen, W. L., Noone, Kevin, Persson, Åsa, Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Lambin, Eric, Lenton, Timothy M., Scheffer, Marten, Folke, Carl, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Nykvist, Björn, de Wit, Cynthia A., Hughes, Terry, van der Leeuw, Sander, Rodhe, Henning, Sörlin, Sverker, Snyder, Peter K., Costanza, Robert, Svedin, Uno, Falkenmark, Malin, Karlberg, Louise, Corell, Robert W., Fabry, Victoria J., Hansen, James, Walker, Brian, Liverman, Diana, Richardson, Katherine, Crutzen, Paul, Foley, Jonathan Year: 2009 Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere /or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social - ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of “planetary boundaries” lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale. Title: Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity Author: Rockström, Johan, Steffen, W. L., Noone, Kevin, Persson, Åsa, Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Lambin, Eric, Lenton, Timothy M., Scheffer, Marten, Folke, Carl, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Nykvist, Björn, de Wit, Cynthia A., Hughes, Terry, van der Leeuw, Sander, Rodhe, Henning, Sörlin, Sverker, Snyder, Peter K., Costanza, Robert, Svedin, Uno, Falkenmark, Malin, Karlberg, Louise, Corell, Robert W., Fabry, Victoria J., Hansen, James, Walker, Brian, Liverman, Diana, Richardson, Katherine, Crutzen, Paul, Foley, Jonathan Year: 2009 Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere /or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social - ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of “planetary boundaries” lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale. Close