Search

Search Results

• 141. [Article] Quantifying 20th Century Glacier Change in the Sierra Nevada, California

  Numerous small alpine glaciers occupy the high elevation regions of the central and southern Sierra Nevada, California. An inventory based on 1:24,000 topographic maps revealed 1719 glaciers and perennial ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Quantifying 20th Century Glacier Change in the Sierra Nevada, California Author: Fountain, Andrew G., Basagic, Hassan J. Year: 2011 Numerous small alpine glaciers occupy the high elevation regions of the central and southern Sierra Nevada, California. An inventory based on 1:24,000 topographic maps revealed 1719 glaciers and perennial snowfields for a total area of 39.15 +/- 0.13 km(2). The number of 'true' glaciers, versus non-moving ice, is estimated to be 122 covering 14.89 +/- 0.08 km(2) or 38% of the ice-covered area. Historic photographs, geologic evidence, and field mapping were used to determine the magnitude of area change over the past century at 14 glaciers. The area change between 1903 and 2004 ranged from -31% to -78%, averaging -55%. Based on these values rough estimates of volume change suggest an ice volume loss from 1903 (1.09 km(3)) to 2004 (0.43 km(3)) of 0.66 km(3) (0.59 km(3) water). Rapid retreat occurred over the first half of the 20th century beginning in the 1920s and continued through the 1960s after which recession ceased by the early 1980s and some glaciers advanced. Since the late 1980s glaciers resumed retreat with a rapid acceleration starting in the early 2000s. The relatively uniform timing of area changes in the study glaciers is a response to regional climate whereas the magnitude of change is influenced by local topographic effects. Area changes correlate significantly with changes in summer and winter air temperatures. Warmer winter temperatures warm the snowpack lengthening the summer melt season. Spring air temperatures and precipitation may also play an important role. The occurrence of spring snowfall can delay the onset of melt due to the increased surface albedo. Examining the influence of topographic variables we only found headwall height at the top of the glacier to show an influence on glacier change. Higher headwalls shadow the glacier from solar radiation reducing melt and enhancing snow accumulation via avalanching. If the glaciers continue to shrink at current (1972-2004) rates, most will disappear in 50-250 years. Title: Quantifying 20th Century Glacier Change in the Sierra Nevada, California Author: Fountain, Andrew G., Basagic, Hassan J. Year: 2011 Numerous small alpine glaciers occupy the high elevation regions of the central and southern Sierra Nevada, California. An inventory based on 1:24,000 topographic maps revealed 1719 glaciers and perennial snowfields for a total area of 39.15 +/- 0.13 km(2). The number of 'true' glaciers, versus non-moving ice, is estimated to be 122 covering 14.89 +/- 0.08 km(2) or 38% of the ice-covered area. Historic photographs, geologic evidence, and field mapping were used to determine the magnitude of area change over the past century at 14 glaciers. The area change between 1903 and 2004 ranged from -31% to -78%, averaging -55%. Based on these values rough estimates of volume change suggest an ice volume loss from 1903 (1.09 km(3)) to 2004 (0.43 km(3)) of 0.66 km(3) (0.59 km(3) water). Rapid retreat occurred over the first half of the 20th century beginning in the 1920s and continued through the 1960s after which recession ceased by the early 1980s and some glaciers advanced. Since the late 1980s glaciers resumed retreat with a rapid acceleration starting in the early 2000s. The relatively uniform timing of area changes in the study glaciers is a response to regional climate whereas the magnitude of change is influenced by local topographic effects. Area changes correlate significantly with changes in summer and winter air temperatures. Warmer winter temperatures warm the snowpack lengthening the summer melt season. Spring air temperatures and precipitation may also play an important role. The occurrence of spring snowfall can delay the onset of melt due to the increased surface albedo. Examining the influence of topographic variables we only found headwall height at the top of the glacier to show an influence on glacier change. Higher headwalls shadow the glacier from solar radiation reducing melt and enhancing snow accumulation via avalanching. If the glaciers continue to shrink at current (1972-2004) rates, most will disappear in 50-250 years. Close

• 142. [Article] Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change

  This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-Won, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Melgoza, Rolando, Ruelas, David, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2011 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the period 1988-2006, and simulated for determining the probability of floods from 2020-2049. We surveyed stream cross sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined floodwater surface elevations using the HEC-RAS model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year floodwater surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. While vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle-hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Results indicate that any cost analysis is extremely sensitive to the occurrence of human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delay costs. In addition, this research presents a comprehensive classification of flooding costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes short- and long-term recommendations. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Title: Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-Won, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Melgoza, Rolando, Ruelas, David, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2011 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the period 1988-2006, and simulated for determining the probability of floods from 2020-2049. We surveyed stream cross sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined floodwater surface elevations using the HEC-RAS model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year floodwater surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. While vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle-hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Results indicate that any cost analysis is extremely sensitive to the occurrence of human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delay costs. In addition, this research presents a comprehensive classification of flooding costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes short- and long-term recommendations. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Close

• 143. [Article] Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization

  While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization Author: Chang, Heejun, Steele, Madeline, Bonak, Zoe Year: 2011 While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial scales of analysis. To better understand this variation, we analyzed water quality data for a total of 15 sites from six Portland, Oregon area creeks at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The creeks are characterized by differing levels of urban development, from relatively pristine to highly developed. More than ten years of monthly data gathered by the Portland Bureau of Environmental Services were used to analyze temporal trends, and five years of these data were used to analyze spatial patterns. Analytes of interest were specific conductivity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphorus, total suspended solids, and temperature. These variables were compared to contributing area land use metrics at three scales: full contributing sub-basin, 100-meter riparian corridor, and 50-meter riparian corridor. We calculated seven land use metrics: population density, street density, Green Streets density, percent low density development, percent high density development, percent forested area, and percent agriculture. We found Spearman?s Rank Correlation Coefficient between the water quality parameters for annual, wet, and dry seasons and the land use metrics at each spatial scale for each parameter. The same water quality data were also analyzed for correlations to same day as well as 3-, 5-, and 7-day antecedent precipitation to examine relationships between water quality and environmental moisture conditions. Additionally, we used a Seasonal Kendall test to search for temporal trends. For each site included in the temporal analysis, changes in population density and street density metrics from 2000 to 2010 were compared to changes in water quality. Results vary across space, but generally confirm that urban development has negatively impacted the creeks. Specific conductivity, total suspended solids and nitrate are particularly sensitive to the level of urban development, especially following rain events. This work will help to better understand and mitigate urbanization impacts on freshwater systems. Title: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization Author: Chang, Heejun, Steele, Madeline, Bonak, Zoe Year: 2011 While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial scales of analysis. To better understand this variation, we analyzed water quality data for a total of 15 sites from six Portland, Oregon area creeks at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The creeks are characterized by differing levels of urban development, from relatively pristine to highly developed. More than ten years of monthly data gathered by the Portland Bureau of Environmental Services were used to analyze temporal trends, and five years of these data were used to analyze spatial patterns. Analytes of interest were specific conductivity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphorus, total suspended solids, and temperature. These variables were compared to contributing area land use metrics at three scales: full contributing sub-basin, 100-meter riparian corridor, and 50-meter riparian corridor. We calculated seven land use metrics: population density, street density, Green Streets density, percent low density development, percent high density development, percent forested area, and percent agriculture. We found Spearman?s Rank Correlation Coefficient between the water quality parameters for annual, wet, and dry seasons and the land use metrics at each spatial scale for each parameter. The same water quality data were also analyzed for correlations to same day as well as 3-, 5-, and 7-day antecedent precipitation to examine relationships between water quality and environmental moisture conditions. Additionally, we used a Seasonal Kendall test to search for temporal trends. For each site included in the temporal analysis, changes in population density and street density metrics from 2000 to 2010 were compared to changes in water quality. Results vary across space, but generally confirm that urban development has negatively impacted the creeks. Specific conductivity, total suspended solids and nitrate are particularly sensitive to the level of urban development, especially following rain events. This work will help to better understand and mitigate urbanization impacts on freshwater systems. Close

• 144. [Article] A Town on Fire: The Copperfield Affair of 1914

  In 1914, Copperfield, Oregon was militarily occupied by order of the governor, Oswald West. Its town government was deposed, the city officials were arrested, and the town's saloons were closed and all ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Town on Fire: The Copperfield Affair of 1914 Author: Shepard, Daniel Joseph Year: 2015 In 1914, Copperfield, Oregon was militarily occupied by order of the governor, Oswald West. Its town government was deposed, the city officials were arrested, and the town's saloons were closed and all liquor and gambling devices were seized. The town, previous to Governor West's interdiction, had seen a breakdown into violence and arson between two competing saloon cliques. The resulting martial law of Copperfield and subsequent court battles between the governor and Copperfield's saloonkeepers would become known as the Copperfield Affair. The purpose of this study is to explain how and why the Copperfield Affair happened. The event which precipitated the Copperfield Affair was the collapse of the town's economy. Copperfield was a frontier town, which placed it at greater risk of economic failure. The failure of the two construction projects necessary for its economic success led to a violent contest for customers among the town's three saloons, resulting in several arsons, eventually drawing Governor West's attention to the town. The Temperance Movement in Oregon is a second factor influencing why the Copperfield Affair occurred. Governor West cared about the problems of a failed town in the middle of nowhere, because he was a proponent of prohibition and the violence in Copperfield presented an opportunity to make a statement for the Temperance Movement. Finally, Governor West relied on the concurrent evolution of two important definitions relevant to the state executive. One was the increasingly general definition of martial law and how it could be used by the governor. This definition, by 1914, allowed Governor West to legally occupy Copperfield. Second, the development of the Progressive Movement at the beginning of the twentieth century also coincided with greater public desire for a powerful and energetic executive in order to achieve reform. Governor West personified the Progressive executive, as a person who got things done and supported the sort of social reforms the Movement favored, like temperance. By combining the development of a powerful state executive, with great military powers, a governor and public in favor of prohibition, and a weak frontier town suffering violence from the liquor trade, we arrive at a situation which keenly encapsulates a moment in time in Oregon history, one in which a governor would use such extreme measures to crack down on what was a local squabble. Title: A Town on Fire: The Copperfield Affair of 1914 Author: Shepard, Daniel Joseph Year: 2015 In 1914, Copperfield, Oregon was militarily occupied by order of the governor, Oswald West. Its town government was deposed, the city officials were arrested, and the town's saloons were closed and all liquor and gambling devices were seized. The town, previous to Governor West's interdiction, had seen a breakdown into violence and arson between two competing saloon cliques. The resulting martial law of Copperfield and subsequent court battles between the governor and Copperfield's saloonkeepers would become known as the Copperfield Affair. The purpose of this study is to explain how and why the Copperfield Affair happened. The event which precipitated the Copperfield Affair was the collapse of the town's economy. Copperfield was a frontier town, which placed it at greater risk of economic failure. The failure of the two construction projects necessary for its economic success led to a violent contest for customers among the town's three saloons, resulting in several arsons, eventually drawing Governor West's attention to the town. The Temperance Movement in Oregon is a second factor influencing why the Copperfield Affair occurred. Governor West cared about the problems of a failed town in the middle of nowhere, because he was a proponent of prohibition and the violence in Copperfield presented an opportunity to make a statement for the Temperance Movement. Finally, Governor West relied on the concurrent evolution of two important definitions relevant to the state executive. One was the increasingly general definition of martial law and how it could be used by the governor. This definition, by 1914, allowed Governor West to legally occupy Copperfield. Second, the development of the Progressive Movement at the beginning of the twentieth century also coincided with greater public desire for a powerful and energetic executive in order to achieve reform. Governor West personified the Progressive executive, as a person who got things done and supported the sort of social reforms the Movement favored, like temperance. By combining the development of a powerful state executive, with great military powers, a governor and public in favor of prohibition, and a weak frontier town suffering violence from the liquor trade, we arrive at a situation which keenly encapsulates a moment in time in Oregon history, one in which a governor would use such extreme measures to crack down on what was a local squabble. Close

• 145. [Article] Model Analysis of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

  Considerable interest lies in understanding the hydrologic response to climate change in the upper Deschutes Basin, particularly as it relates to groundwater fed streams. Much of the precipitation occurring ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Model Analysis of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon Author: Waibel, Michael Scott Year: 2010 Considerable interest lies in understanding the hydrologic response to climate change in the upper Deschutes Basin, particularly as it relates to groundwater fed streams. Much of the precipitation occurring in the recharge zone falls as snow. Consequently, the timing of runoff and recharge depend on accumulation and melting of the snowpack. Numerical modeling can provide insights into evolving hydrologic system response for resource management consideration. A daily mass and energy balance model known as the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) was developed for the basin in the 1990s. This model uses spatially distributed data and is driven with daily climate data to calculate both daily and monthly mass and energy balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget across the basin. Previously historical daily climate data from weather stations in the basin was used to drive the model. Now we use the University of Washington Climate Impact Group's 1/16th degree daily downscaled climate data to drive the DPM for forecasting until the end of the 21st century. The downscaled climate data is comprised from the mean of eight GCM simulations well suited to the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, there are low emission and high emission scenarios associated with each ensemble member leading to two distinct means. For the entire basin progressing into the 21st century, output from the DPM using both emission scenarios as a forcing show changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as significant reductions in snowpack. Although the DPM calculated amounts of recharge and runoff varies between the emission scenario of the ensemble under consideration, all model output shows loss of the spring snowmelt runoff / recharge peak as time progresses. The response of the groundwater system to changing in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow paths in the upper part of the basin are potentially more sensitive to the change in seasonality. However, geologic controls on the system cause this signal to attenuate as it propagates into the lower portions of the basin. This scale-dependent variation to the response of the groundwater system to changes in seasonality and magnitude of recharge is explored by applying DPM calculated recharge to an existing regional groundwater flow model. Title: Model Analysis of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon Author: Waibel, Michael Scott Year: 2010 Considerable interest lies in understanding the hydrologic response to climate change in the upper Deschutes Basin, particularly as it relates to groundwater fed streams. Much of the precipitation occurring in the recharge zone falls as snow. Consequently, the timing of runoff and recharge depend on accumulation and melting of the snowpack. Numerical modeling can provide insights into evolving hydrologic system response for resource management consideration. A daily mass and energy balance model known as the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) was developed for the basin in the 1990s. This model uses spatially distributed data and is driven with daily climate data to calculate both daily and monthly mass and energy balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget across the basin. Previously historical daily climate data from weather stations in the basin was used to drive the model. Now we use the University of Washington Climate Impact Group's 1/16th degree daily downscaled climate data to drive the DPM for forecasting until the end of the 21st century. The downscaled climate data is comprised from the mean of eight GCM simulations well suited to the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, there are low emission and high emission scenarios associated with each ensemble member leading to two distinct means. For the entire basin progressing into the 21st century, output from the DPM using both emission scenarios as a forcing show changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as significant reductions in snowpack. Although the DPM calculated amounts of recharge and runoff varies between the emission scenario of the ensemble under consideration, all model output shows loss of the spring snowmelt runoff / recharge peak as time progresses. The response of the groundwater system to changing in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow paths in the upper part of the basin are potentially more sensitive to the change in seasonality. However, geologic controls on the system cause this signal to attenuate as it propagates into the lower portions of the basin. This scale-dependent variation to the response of the groundwater system to changes in seasonality and magnitude of recharge is explored by applying DPM calculated recharge to an existing regional groundwater flow model. Close

• 146. [Article] Dendrochronology and Middle Miocene Petrified Oak: Modern Counterparts and Interpretation

  This study reports the first successful statistical crossdating among many ring width time series from petrified wood, thus providing a replicable continuous annual resolution window into tree growth and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Dendrochronology and Middle Miocene Petrified Oak: Modern Counterparts and Interpretation Author: Wright, William E., Streck, Martin J., Baisan, Christopher, Wright, W. Walton, Szejner, Paul Year: 2015 This study reports the first successful statistical crossdating among many ring width time series from petrified wood, thus providing a replicable continuous annual resolution window into tree growth and environmental influences during the middle Miocene. The petrified samples, of the genus Quercus, originated at the Stinking Water (SW) locality in Oregon, a Miocene-aged exposure associated with the Columbia River Basalts. 40AR/39AR dating on pillow basalt from the locality yielded a weighted Plateau Age of 13.79 ±0.09 Ma placing the death of the trees at the end of the Langhian Stage of the Middle Miocene (15.97±0.05 to 13.65±0.05 Ma), during the middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT). Ring width time series from 26 radii, 17 different trees, show significant intercorrelation. A Modified Coexistence Approach was applied to determine the likely climate range when the SW trees were growing. The modified approach included regression of site-mean ring width time series statistic values on estimated soil moisture for the site locations, using site-mean data from 126 modern Quercus sites from across the United States. Identification of highly significant linearities indicated strong relationships between ring width intercorrelation and soil moisture and ring width variability and soil moisture. Comparison of individual modern site-mean statistical values with values calculated for the SW locality suggests a mesic growing environment for the SW Quercus, with moderate temperatures. Geographic placement of modern Quercus sites with site-mean statistics similar to the SW values indicates a modern analogue in the eastern United States. Modern distributions of mesic species in the genera present at the SW locality suggest similarities with the central and southern Appalachian Mountains and the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains, indicating a mean annual temperature range of between ring width intercorrelation and soil moisture and ring width variability and soil moisture. Comparison of individual modern site-mean statistical values with values calculated for the SW locality suggests a mesic growing environment for the SW Quercus, with moderate temperatures. Geographic placement of modern Quercus sites with site-mean statistics similar to the SW values indicates a modern analogue in the eastern United States. Modern distributions of mesic species in the genera present at the SW locality suggest similarities with the central and southern Appalachian Mountains and the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains, indicating a mean annual temperature range of ≅10 ˚C to ≅ 15 ˚C and a mean annual precipitation range of ≅750 mm to ≅1200 mm when the SW Quercus were growing. Title: Dendrochronology and Middle Miocene Petrified Oak: Modern Counterparts and Interpretation Author: Wright, William E., Streck, Martin J., Baisan, Christopher, Wright, W. Walton, Szejner, Paul Year: 2015 This study reports the first successful statistical crossdating among many ring width time series from petrified wood, thus providing a replicable continuous annual resolution window into tree growth and environmental influences during the middle Miocene. The petrified samples, of the genus Quercus, originated at the Stinking Water (SW) locality in Oregon, a Miocene-aged exposure associated with the Columbia River Basalts. 40AR/39AR dating on pillow basalt from the locality yielded a weighted Plateau Age of 13.79 ±0.09 Ma placing the death of the trees at the end of the Langhian Stage of the Middle Miocene (15.97±0.05 to 13.65±0.05 Ma), during the middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT). Ring width time series from 26 radii, 17 different trees, show significant intercorrelation. A Modified Coexistence Approach was applied to determine the likely climate range when the SW trees were growing. The modified approach included regression of site-mean ring width time series statistic values on estimated soil moisture for the site locations, using site-mean data from 126 modern Quercus sites from across the United States. Identification of highly significant linearities indicated strong relationships between ring width intercorrelation and soil moisture and ring width variability and soil moisture. Comparison of individual modern site-mean statistical values with values calculated for the SW locality suggests a mesic growing environment for the SW Quercus, with moderate temperatures. Geographic placement of modern Quercus sites with site-mean statistics similar to the SW values indicates a modern analogue in the eastern United States. Modern distributions of mesic species in the genera present at the SW locality suggest similarities with the central and southern Appalachian Mountains and the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains, indicating a mean annual temperature range of between ring width intercorrelation and soil moisture and ring width variability and soil moisture. Comparison of individual modern site-mean statistical values with values calculated for the SW locality suggests a mesic growing environment for the SW Quercus, with moderate temperatures. Geographic placement of modern Quercus sites with site-mean statistics similar to the SW values indicates a modern analogue in the eastern United States. Modern distributions of mesic species in the genera present at the SW locality suggest similarities with the central and southern Appalachian Mountains and the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains, indicating a mean annual temperature range of ≅10 ˚C to ≅ 15 ˚C and a mean annual precipitation range of ≅750 mm to ≅1200 mm when the SW Quercus were growing. Close

• 147. [Article] The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA

  Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA Author: Thompson, Jonathan R., Foster, David R., Scheller, Robert M., Kittridge, David Year: 2011 Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010–2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create “probability-of-conversion” and “probability-of-harvest” zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naïve assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses. Title: The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA Author: Thompson, Jonathan R., Foster, David R., Scheller, Robert M., Kittridge, David Year: 2011 Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010–2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create “probability-of-conversion” and “probability-of-harvest” zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naïve assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses. Close

• 148. [Article] Inventory and Initiation Zone Characterization of Debris Flows on Mount St. Helens, Washington Initiated during a Major Storm Event in November, 2006

  The heavy precipitation event of November 3-8, 2006 dropped over 60 cm of rain onto the bare southern slopes of Mount St. Helens and generated debris flows in eight of the sixteen drainages outside the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Inventory and Initiation Zone Characterization of Debris Flows on Mount St. Helens, Washington Initiated during a Major Storm Event in November, 2006 Author: Olson, Keith Vinton Year: 2012 The heavy precipitation event of November 3-8, 2006 dropped over 60 cm of rain onto the bare southern slopes of Mount St. Helens and generated debris flows in eight of the sixteen drainages outside the 1980 debris avalanche zone. Debris flows occurred on the upper catchments of the Muddy River, Shoestring Glacier, Pine Creek, June Lake, Butte Camp Dome, Blue Lake, Sheep Creek, and South Fork Toutle River. Debris flows were clustered on the west and south-east sides of the mountain. Of the eight debris flows, three were initiated by landslides, while five were initiated by headward or channel erosion. Six debris flows were initiated in deposits mapped as Holocene volcaniclastic deposits, while two were in 1980 pyroclastics on andesite flows. The largest (~975,000 m2) and longest (~8,900 m) debris flow was initiated by landslides in the upper South Fork Toutle River Drainage. The average debris flow initiation zone elevation was 1,750 m, with clusters around 1,700 m and 2,000 m elevation. The lower cluster is associated with basins that host modern or historic glaciers, while the upper is possibly associated with recent pyroclastic deposits. Upper drainages with debris flows averaged 41% slopes steeper than 33 degrees, while those without debris flows averaged 34%. The upper basins with debris flows averaged 6% snow and ice cover, 21% consolidated bedrock, and 74% unconsolidated deposits. Basins without debris flows averaged 3% snow and ice cover, 27% bedrock, and 67% unconsolidated deposits. Drainages with debris flows averaged an 89% loss of glacier area between 1998 and 2009, while those without debris flows lost 68%. Further comparing glacier coverage during that period found that only five of ten glaciers still existed in 2009. On average, the glaciers had reduced in area by 67%, decreased in length by 36%, and retreated by an average of 471 m during that period. Basin attributes were measured or calculated in order to construct a predictive debris flow model based on that of Pirot (2010) using multiple logistic regression. The most significant factors were the percentage of slopes steeper than 33 degrees, unconsolidated deposits in the upper basin, and average annual rainfall. These factors predicted the 2006 debris flows with an accuracy of 94% in a debris flow susceptibility map for Mount St. Helens. Title: Inventory and Initiation Zone Characterization of Debris Flows on Mount St. Helens, Washington Initiated during a Major Storm Event in November, 2006 Author: Olson, Keith Vinton Year: 2012 The heavy precipitation event of November 3-8, 2006 dropped over 60 cm of rain onto the bare southern slopes of Mount St. Helens and generated debris flows in eight of the sixteen drainages outside the 1980 debris avalanche zone. Debris flows occurred on the upper catchments of the Muddy River, Shoestring Glacier, Pine Creek, June Lake, Butte Camp Dome, Blue Lake, Sheep Creek, and South Fork Toutle River. Debris flows were clustered on the west and south-east sides of the mountain. Of the eight debris flows, three were initiated by landslides, while five were initiated by headward or channel erosion. Six debris flows were initiated in deposits mapped as Holocene volcaniclastic deposits, while two were in 1980 pyroclastics on andesite flows. The largest (~975,000 m2) and longest (~8,900 m) debris flow was initiated by landslides in the upper South Fork Toutle River Drainage. The average debris flow initiation zone elevation was 1,750 m, with clusters around 1,700 m and 2,000 m elevation. The lower cluster is associated with basins that host modern or historic glaciers, while the upper is possibly associated with recent pyroclastic deposits. Upper drainages with debris flows averaged 41% slopes steeper than 33 degrees, while those without debris flows averaged 34%. The upper basins with debris flows averaged 6% snow and ice cover, 21% consolidated bedrock, and 74% unconsolidated deposits. Basins without debris flows averaged 3% snow and ice cover, 27% bedrock, and 67% unconsolidated deposits. Drainages with debris flows averaged an 89% loss of glacier area between 1998 and 2009, while those without debris flows lost 68%. Further comparing glacier coverage during that period found that only five of ten glaciers still existed in 2009. On average, the glaciers had reduced in area by 67%, decreased in length by 36%, and retreated by an average of 471 m during that period. Basin attributes were measured or calculated in order to construct a predictive debris flow model based on that of Pirot (2010) using multiple logistic regression. The most significant factors were the percentage of slopes steeper than 33 degrees, unconsolidated deposits in the upper basin, and average annual rainfall. These factors predicted the 2006 debris flows with an accuracy of 94% in a debris flow susceptibility map for Mount St. Helens. Close

• 149. [Article] A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry

  Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry Author: Johnson, Amelia Lee Year: 2016 Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. Here I analyze movement timing and growth patterns for coho salmon through a field-based study and a literature review. For the field portion, I examined hatchery-stocked juvenile coho salmon across four stream basins in the Russian River watershed, California to determine the relative importance of climate, landscape, and fish size metrics in predicting movement and growth patterns over a winter rearing and spring smolt outmigration time period (December 2014-June 2015). I observed three unique movement strategies: winter parr movement, spring smolt movement, and inter-tributary movement. Movement was predicted in relation to daily temperature and precipitation, followed by in-stream and upslope basin conditions in random forest modeling. Specifically, fish that moved later were associated with basins that contained higher productivity and low-gradient floodplain habitats, while fish that moved earlier came from streams that lacked invertebrate prey and had limited low-gradient rearing habitat. Fish size and timing of movement were the primary predictors of growth, with relatively larger fish in the spring growing faster than fish that were relatively smaller prior to winter. These relationships suggest that hatchery-release fish are still highly influenced by environmental conditions once released, especially in terms of initial seasonal movement, and that watershed conditions should be considered when utilizing hatchery-rearing programs to supplement wild fish populations. In North America, coho salmon populations are distributed from Alaska through California, and may exhibit unique movement and growth patterns in relationship to population-scale vulnerability (Endangered Species Act listing), basin area, and availability and types of rearing habitat. For the second part of my thesis, I conducted a literature review to assess what factors are commonly considered in predicting movement and growth patterns for these fish, as well as the types (season and life stage) and number of movement strategies reported. Eighteen studies were summarized, of which sixteen identified unique movement strategies, ranging from one to four. Despite a wide range of basin areas and latitudes, winter parr and spring smolt movements were commonly observed, with authors primarily relating these behaviors to in-stream habitat and fish size metrics. Additionally, growth was linked positively and primarily with off-channel winter rearing, which may outweigh the importance of fish size in predicting growth when high quality rearing habitats are available during the winter season. Recognizing movement timing diversity and its drivers can help recover threatened coho salmon populations. More widely distributed populations may have unique phenotypic expressions based on localized genetic and environmental interactions, increasing diversity and overall stability across the population, a concept known as the portfolio effect. Understanding fish-habitat relationships can aid recovery efforts by providing a framework of climatic and watershed conditions that support unique behaviors, even in already severely limited populations. Title: A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry Author: Johnson, Amelia Lee Year: 2016 Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. Here I analyze movement timing and growth patterns for coho salmon through a field-based study and a literature review. For the field portion, I examined hatchery-stocked juvenile coho salmon across four stream basins in the Russian River watershed, California to determine the relative importance of climate, landscape, and fish size metrics in predicting movement and growth patterns over a winter rearing and spring smolt outmigration time period (December 2014-June 2015). I observed three unique movement strategies: winter parr movement, spring smolt movement, and inter-tributary movement. Movement was predicted in relation to daily temperature and precipitation, followed by in-stream and upslope basin conditions in random forest modeling. Specifically, fish that moved later were associated with basins that contained higher productivity and low-gradient floodplain habitats, while fish that moved earlier came from streams that lacked invertebrate prey and had limited low-gradient rearing habitat. Fish size and timing of movement were the primary predictors of growth, with relatively larger fish in the spring growing faster than fish that were relatively smaller prior to winter. These relationships suggest that hatchery-release fish are still highly influenced by environmental conditions once released, especially in terms of initial seasonal movement, and that watershed conditions should be considered when utilizing hatchery-rearing programs to supplement wild fish populations. In North America, coho salmon populations are distributed from Alaska through California, and may exhibit unique movement and growth patterns in relationship to population-scale vulnerability (Endangered Species Act listing), basin area, and availability and types of rearing habitat. For the second part of my thesis, I conducted a literature review to assess what factors are commonly considered in predicting movement and growth patterns for these fish, as well as the types (season and life stage) and number of movement strategies reported. Eighteen studies were summarized, of which sixteen identified unique movement strategies, ranging from one to four. Despite a wide range of basin areas and latitudes, winter parr and spring smolt movements were commonly observed, with authors primarily relating these behaviors to in-stream habitat and fish size metrics. Additionally, growth was linked positively and primarily with off-channel winter rearing, which may outweigh the importance of fish size in predicting growth when high quality rearing habitats are available during the winter season. Recognizing movement timing diversity and its drivers can help recover threatened coho salmon populations. More widely distributed populations may have unique phenotypic expressions based on localized genetic and environmental interactions, increasing diversity and overall stability across the population, a concept known as the portfolio effect. Understanding fish-habitat relationships can aid recovery efforts by providing a framework of climatic and watershed conditions that support unique behaviors, even in already severely limited populations. Close

• 150. [Article] Snow-Patch Influence on Soil Biogeochemical Processes and Invertebrate Distribution in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

  The McMurdo Dry Valleys is the largest of the ice-free areas in Antarctica. Precipitation events in excess of 1 cm of snow accumulation are rare. During the winter, snow is transported by strong katabatic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Snow-Patch Influence on Soil Biogeochemical Processes and Invertebrate Distribution in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica Author: Gooseff, Michael N., Barrett, John E., Doran, Peter T., Fountain, Andrew G., Lyons, W. Berry, Parsons, Andrew N., Porazinska, Dorota L., Virginia, Ross A., Wall, Diana H. Year: 2003 The McMurdo Dry Valleys is the largest of the ice-free areas in Antarctica. Precipitation events in excess of 1 cm of snow accumulation are rare. During the winter, snow is transported by strong katabatic winds blowing from the polar plateau, and deposited into the lee of topographic features (e.g., stream channels and other topographic depressions). At the start of the austral summer (early October), as much as 10% of the valley soils may be covered by distributed snow patches. Because liquid water is the primary driver of biological, physical, and chemical processes in this polar desert, quantifying fluxes of water from snow patches is important to understanding the influence of hydrology on soil biology and nutrient cycling. During the austral summer of 1999-2000, four snow patches that had developed during the previous winter in Taylor Valley were studied. We measured snow-patch area, depth, and snow water equivalent, as well as subnivian (under snow) and nearby exposed (control) soil temperature, light intensity, soil moisture, invertebrate abundance, soil organic matter content, and 95-d labile pools of C and N. Subnivian soils differed from exposed soils being as much as 26.88 ⁰C colder than exposed soils; average soil moisture ranging from 6.9 to 13.6% compared to 0.4% in exposed soils; soil invertebrate populations exceeding 7900 individuals kg⁻¹ dry soil versus less than 1200 individuals kg⁻¹ dry soil in exposed soils; and soil invertebrate species richness values greater than 2 taxa, compared to 1.3 taxa in exposed soils. The results of this study show that these seasonal, sparse snow patches may be an important source of moisture and control habitat of soil ecosystems in this extreme environment. Title: Snow-Patch Influence on Soil Biogeochemical Processes and Invertebrate Distribution in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica Author: Gooseff, Michael N., Barrett, John E., Doran, Peter T., Fountain, Andrew G., Lyons, W. Berry, Parsons, Andrew N., Porazinska, Dorota L., Virginia, Ross A., Wall, Diana H. Year: 2003 The McMurdo Dry Valleys is the largest of the ice-free areas in Antarctica. Precipitation events in excess of 1 cm of snow accumulation are rare. During the winter, snow is transported by strong katabatic winds blowing from the polar plateau, and deposited into the lee of topographic features (e.g., stream channels and other topographic depressions). At the start of the austral summer (early October), as much as 10% of the valley soils may be covered by distributed snow patches. Because liquid water is the primary driver of biological, physical, and chemical processes in this polar desert, quantifying fluxes of water from snow patches is important to understanding the influence of hydrology on soil biology and nutrient cycling. During the austral summer of 1999-2000, four snow patches that had developed during the previous winter in Taylor Valley were studied. We measured snow-patch area, depth, and snow water equivalent, as well as subnivian (under snow) and nearby exposed (control) soil temperature, light intensity, soil moisture, invertebrate abundance, soil organic matter content, and 95-d labile pools of C and N. Subnivian soils differed from exposed soils being as much as 26.88 ⁰C colder than exposed soils; average soil moisture ranging from 6.9 to 13.6% compared to 0.4% in exposed soils; soil invertebrate populations exceeding 7900 individuals kg⁻¹ dry soil versus less than 1200 individuals kg⁻¹ dry soil in exposed soils; and soil invertebrate species richness values greater than 2 taxa, compared to 1.3 taxa in exposed soils. The results of this study show that these seasonal, sparse snow patches may be an important source of moisture and control habitat of soil ecosystems in this extreme environment. Close