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• 111. [Article] Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA

  This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-won, Figliozzi, Miguel, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2010 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, a stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the historical period of 1988 and 2006 and simulated for determining the probability of floods for 2020 through 2049. We surveyed stream cross-sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined flood water surface elevations using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year flood water surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. Whereas vehicle miles traveled was not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-won, Figliozzi, Miguel, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2010 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, a stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the historical period of 1988 and 2006 and simulated for determining the probability of floods for 2020 through 2049. We surveyed stream cross-sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined flood water surface elevations using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year flood water surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. Whereas vehicle miles traveled was not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Close

• 112. [Article] Interactive Physiological Responses of Nile Tilapia to Salinity- and Temperature-induced Stress: Quantifying the Regulation of Apoptosis and Cell Cycle Arrest in Oreochromis Niloticus

  Nile tilapia provide an ideal model to study the accumulation of climate change-induced stressors due to their habitat in tropical freshwater systems that are susceptible to salt water invasion and temperature ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Interactive Physiological Responses of Nile Tilapia to Salinity- and Temperature-induced Stress: Quantifying the Regulation of Apoptosis and Cell Cycle Arrest in Oreochromis Niloticus Author: McGuire, Charlee Year: 2017 Nile tilapia provide an ideal model to study the accumulation of climate change-induced stressors due to their habitat in tropical freshwater systems that are susceptible to salt water invasion and temperature fluctuation due to sea level rise. This study investigates the physiological responses of Nile tilapia to salinity- and temperature-induced stress to identify the interactive effects of simultaneous stressors on the cell cycle. Proteins indicative of cell cycle activity and arrest were quantified in the tissues of Nile tilapia exposed to various environmental conditions varying by temperature and salinity. Dot Blotting was utilized to measure Gadd45 while Western Blotting was used to confirm the identity of the protein. Results from previous investigations in the Buckley lab were also utilized to compare the expression patterns of Gadd45 to relevant cell activity proteins p53 and PCNA. Of the three proteins under scrutiny, a significant change in expression of p53 was observed for the interaction of salinity- and temperature- induced stress, while full strength saltwater treatment alone was found to have a significant impact on the expression of p53, Gadd45 and PCNA. These findings can be used in collaboration with existing studies to describe the coordination of apoptotic pathways in Nile tilapia and other non-mammalian species, as well as to create policy on how to conserve this important species effectively both in the wild and in fisheries for aquaculture, commercial and public health initiatives in response to global climate change. Title: Interactive Physiological Responses of Nile Tilapia to Salinity- and Temperature-induced Stress: Quantifying the Regulation of Apoptosis and Cell Cycle Arrest in Oreochromis Niloticus Author: McGuire, Charlee Year: 2017 Nile tilapia provide an ideal model to study the accumulation of climate change-induced stressors due to their habitat in tropical freshwater systems that are susceptible to salt water invasion and temperature fluctuation due to sea level rise. This study investigates the physiological responses of Nile tilapia to salinity- and temperature-induced stress to identify the interactive effects of simultaneous stressors on the cell cycle. Proteins indicative of cell cycle activity and arrest were quantified in the tissues of Nile tilapia exposed to various environmental conditions varying by temperature and salinity. Dot Blotting was utilized to measure Gadd45 while Western Blotting was used to confirm the identity of the protein. Results from previous investigations in the Buckley lab were also utilized to compare the expression patterns of Gadd45 to relevant cell activity proteins p53 and PCNA. Of the three proteins under scrutiny, a significant change in expression of p53 was observed for the interaction of salinity- and temperature- induced stress, while full strength saltwater treatment alone was found to have a significant impact on the expression of p53, Gadd45 and PCNA. These findings can be used in collaboration with existing studies to describe the coordination of apoptotic pathways in Nile tilapia and other non-mammalian species, as well as to create policy on how to conserve this important species effectively both in the wild and in fisheries for aquaculture, commercial and public health initiatives in response to global climate change. Close

• 113. [Article] Removing Dams, Constructing Science: Coproduction of Undammed Riverscapes by Politics, Finance, Environment, Society and Technology

  Dam removal in the United States has continued to increase in pace and scope, transitioning from a dam-safety engineering practice to an integral component of many large-scale river restoration programmes. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Removing Dams, Constructing Science: Coproduction of Undammed Riverscapes by Politics, Finance, Environment, Society and Technology Author: Grabowski, Zbigniew J., Denton, Ashlie, Rozance, Mary Ann, Matsler, Marissa, Kidd, Sarah Year: 2017 Dam removal in the United States has continued to increase in pace and scope, transitioning from a dam-safety engineering practice to an integral component of many large-scale river restoration programmes. At the same time, knowledge around dam removals remains fragmented by disciplinary silos and a lack of knowledge transfer between communities of practice around dam removal and academia. Here we argue that dam removal science, as a study of large restoration-oriented infrastructure interventions, requires the construction of an interdisciplinary framework to integrate knowledge relevant to decision-making on dam removal. Drawing upon infrastructure studies, relational theories of coproduction of knowledge and social life, and advances within restoration ecology and dam removal science, we present a preliminary framework of dams as systems with irreducibly interrelated political, financial, environmental, social, and technological dimensions (PFESTS). With this framework we analyse three dam removals occurring over a similar time period and within the same narrow geographic region (the Mid-Columbia Region in WA and OR, USA) to demonstrate how each PFESTS dimension contributed to the decision to remove the dam, how it affected the process of removing the dam, and how those dimensions continue to operate post removal in each watershed. We conclude with a discussion of a joint research and practice agenda emerging out of the PFESTS framing. Title: Removing Dams, Constructing Science: Coproduction of Undammed Riverscapes by Politics, Finance, Environment, Society and Technology Author: Grabowski, Zbigniew J., Denton, Ashlie, Rozance, Mary Ann, Matsler, Marissa, Kidd, Sarah Year: 2017 Dam removal in the United States has continued to increase in pace and scope, transitioning from a dam-safety engineering practice to an integral component of many large-scale river restoration programmes. At the same time, knowledge around dam removals remains fragmented by disciplinary silos and a lack of knowledge transfer between communities of practice around dam removal and academia. Here we argue that dam removal science, as a study of large restoration-oriented infrastructure interventions, requires the construction of an interdisciplinary framework to integrate knowledge relevant to decision-making on dam removal. Drawing upon infrastructure studies, relational theories of coproduction of knowledge and social life, and advances within restoration ecology and dam removal science, we present a preliminary framework of dams as systems with irreducibly interrelated political, financial, environmental, social, and technological dimensions (PFESTS). With this framework we analyse three dam removals occurring over a similar time period and within the same narrow geographic region (the Mid-Columbia Region in WA and OR, USA) to demonstrate how each PFESTS dimension contributed to the decision to remove the dam, how it affected the process of removing the dam, and how those dimensions continue to operate post removal in each watershed. We conclude with a discussion of a joint research and practice agenda emerging out of the PFESTS framing. Close

• 114. [Article] Getting Green to Work in the Northwest Industrial District

  Forest Park and its surrounding watershed experience measurable environmental problems such as urban heat island impacts, increased storm water runoff containing pollutants, fragmentations of habitat connectivity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Getting Green to Work in the Northwest Industrial District Author: Heisler, Stefan, Ivey, Sara, Kelso, Alexis, Sakuma, Ryu, Dornoff, John, Yee, Dianne Year: 2015 Forest Park and its surrounding watershed experience measurable environmental problems such as urban heat island impacts, increased storm water runoff containing pollutants, fragmentations of habitat connectivity due to their proximities to high-impact land uses, poor air quality, absence of public space, and lack of pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure. Getting Green to Work in the Northwest Industrial District identifies strategies to address environmental issues that affect local human and environmental health in the Northwest Indusrial District, Forest Park and the Willamette River, while benefiting local businesses workers and firms. Getting Green to Work explores voluntary approaches to address local environmental problems with green infrastructure and other place-based remedies. Through engagement with industrial stakeholders and technical advisors we determined where the greatest environmental benefit could be achievable and what opportunities and obstacles exist to implementation. Building on this information, final recommendations outline priorities and strategies for Forest Park Conservancy, City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services and their advocates to expand green infrastructure on private and public lands in the Northwest Industrial District. This project was conducted under the supervision of Sy Adler, Marisa Zapata Title: Getting Green to Work in the Northwest Industrial District Author: Heisler, Stefan, Ivey, Sara, Kelso, Alexis, Sakuma, Ryu, Dornoff, John, Yee, Dianne Year: 2015 Forest Park and its surrounding watershed experience measurable environmental problems such as urban heat island impacts, increased storm water runoff containing pollutants, fragmentations of habitat connectivity due to their proximities to high-impact land uses, poor air quality, absence of public space, and lack of pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure. Getting Green to Work in the Northwest Industrial District identifies strategies to address environmental issues that affect local human and environmental health in the Northwest Indusrial District, Forest Park and the Willamette River, while benefiting local businesses workers and firms. Getting Green to Work explores voluntary approaches to address local environmental problems with green infrastructure and other place-based remedies. Through engagement with industrial stakeholders and technical advisors we determined where the greatest environmental benefit could be achievable and what opportunities and obstacles exist to implementation. Building on this information, final recommendations outline priorities and strategies for Forest Park Conservancy, City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services and their advocates to expand green infrastructure on private and public lands in the Northwest Industrial District. This project was conducted under the supervision of Sy Adler, Marisa Zapata Close

• 115. [Article] Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales

  Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales Author: Madadgar, Shahrbanou Year: 2014 Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. Reliable forecast of hydrologic variables, in general, is a preliminary requirement for appropriate planning of water resources and developing effective allocation policies. This study aims at developing new techniques with specific probabilistic features to improve the reliability of hydrologic forecasts, particularly the drought forecasts. The drought status in the future is determined by certain hydrologic variables that are basically estimated by the hydrologic models with rather simple to complex structures. Since the predictions of hydrologic models are prone to different sources of uncertainties, there have been several techniques examined during past several years which generally attempt to combine the predictions of single (multiple) hydrologic models to generate an ensemble of hydrologic forecasts addressing the inherent uncertainties. However, the imperfect structure of hydrologic models usually lead to systematic bias of hydrologic predictions that further appears in the forecast ensembles. This study proposes a post-processing method that is applied to the raw forecast of hydrologic variables and can develop the entire distribution of forecast around the initial single-value prediction. To establish the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast, a group of multivariate distribution functions, the so-called copula functions, are incorporated in the post-processing procedure. The performance of the new post-processing technique is tested on 2500 hypothetical case studies and the streamflow forecast of Sprague River Basin in southern Oregon. Verified by some deterministic and probabilistic verification measures, the method of Quantile Mapping as a traditional post-processing technique cannot generate the qualified forecasts as comparing with the copula-based method. The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies. Title: Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales Author: Madadgar, Shahrbanou Year: 2014 Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. Reliable forecast of hydrologic variables, in general, is a preliminary requirement for appropriate planning of water resources and developing effective allocation policies. This study aims at developing new techniques with specific probabilistic features to improve the reliability of hydrologic forecasts, particularly the drought forecasts. The drought status in the future is determined by certain hydrologic variables that are basically estimated by the hydrologic models with rather simple to complex structures. Since the predictions of hydrologic models are prone to different sources of uncertainties, there have been several techniques examined during past several years which generally attempt to combine the predictions of single (multiple) hydrologic models to generate an ensemble of hydrologic forecasts addressing the inherent uncertainties. However, the imperfect structure of hydrologic models usually lead to systematic bias of hydrologic predictions that further appears in the forecast ensembles. This study proposes a post-processing method that is applied to the raw forecast of hydrologic variables and can develop the entire distribution of forecast around the initial single-value prediction. To establish the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast, a group of multivariate distribution functions, the so-called copula functions, are incorporated in the post-processing procedure. The performance of the new post-processing technique is tested on 2500 hypothetical case studies and the streamflow forecast of Sprague River Basin in southern Oregon. Verified by some deterministic and probabilistic verification measures, the method of Quantile Mapping as a traditional post-processing technique cannot generate the qualified forecasts as comparing with the copula-based method. The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies. Close

• 116. [Article] Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon

  The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon Author: Weatherford, Jonathan Michael Year: 2015 The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream relocation, and the formation of biologically diverse fens and seasonal wetlands. The pumice aquifer at Round Meadow, an 8.6 km2 basin, hosts both a fen and seasonally ponded wetlands. The Round Meadow watershed lies within a closed basin between the upper Klamath and Deschutes river basins. As the highest meadow at Walker Rim, it is a relatively well-constrained system to study the effects of hydrological disruption. A water budget was calculated for the basin, hydraulic conductivity was evaluated for the three main sediment layers in the meadow, recharge sources and evaporative trends were studied using stable isotope analysis, and aquifer residence times were estimated using CFC tracer water age dating. Water year 2014 was a drought year and observation of the system under stressed conditions allowed discrimination of four independently functioning components of the hydrogeologic system. These were the meadow, which is by far the largest component in terms of water storage, the fen where iron cementation and up to 1 m of peat holds water in a berm above the meadow, three springs which are sourced from deeper groundwater hosted in the bedrock which underlies the pumice deposit, and the outflow area. In all cases, the aquifer material is pumice, but the influence of the pre-eruption landscape and post-eruption modifications of the aquifer material have resulted in partial isolation of the components. The water budget analysis indicated that the basin lost 44 cm of water storage during WY 2014. Hydraulic conductivity values of 1x10-6, 2x10-2, and 4x10-5 cm/s, were determined for the diatomaceous silt underlying the pumice, the Plinian pumice fall aquifer, and for the diatomaceous silt overlying the pumice, respectively. The pumice is characterized as a perched, weakly confined aquifer and residence times in the pumice are much longer (decades) than for water near the surface of the meadow. Water discharging at the springs is isotopically different (lighter) than either the surface water or groundwater in the pumice aquifer. The fen at Round Meadow appears dependent on seasonal precipitation to recharge water, and responds to fluctuations in annual precipitation. The wetland meadows are volumetrically the main water-storing features at Round Meadow, and these are not homogenous features, but a combination of discrete components. Title: Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon Author: Weatherford, Jonathan Michael Year: 2015 The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream relocation, and the formation of biologically diverse fens and seasonal wetlands. The pumice aquifer at Round Meadow, an 8.6 km2 basin, hosts both a fen and seasonally ponded wetlands. The Round Meadow watershed lies within a closed basin between the upper Klamath and Deschutes river basins. As the highest meadow at Walker Rim, it is a relatively well-constrained system to study the effects of hydrological disruption. A water budget was calculated for the basin, hydraulic conductivity was evaluated for the three main sediment layers in the meadow, recharge sources and evaporative trends were studied using stable isotope analysis, and aquifer residence times were estimated using CFC tracer water age dating. Water year 2014 was a drought year and observation of the system under stressed conditions allowed discrimination of four independently functioning components of the hydrogeologic system. These were the meadow, which is by far the largest component in terms of water storage, the fen where iron cementation and up to 1 m of peat holds water in a berm above the meadow, three springs which are sourced from deeper groundwater hosted in the bedrock which underlies the pumice deposit, and the outflow area. In all cases, the aquifer material is pumice, but the influence of the pre-eruption landscape and post-eruption modifications of the aquifer material have resulted in partial isolation of the components. The water budget analysis indicated that the basin lost 44 cm of water storage during WY 2014. Hydraulic conductivity values of 1x10-6, 2x10-2, and 4x10-5 cm/s, were determined for the diatomaceous silt underlying the pumice, the Plinian pumice fall aquifer, and for the diatomaceous silt overlying the pumice, respectively. The pumice is characterized as a perched, weakly confined aquifer and residence times in the pumice are much longer (decades) than for water near the surface of the meadow. Water discharging at the springs is isotopically different (lighter) than either the surface water or groundwater in the pumice aquifer. The fen at Round Meadow appears dependent on seasonal precipitation to recharge water, and responds to fluctuations in annual precipitation. The wetland meadows are volumetrically the main water-storing features at Round Meadow, and these are not homogenous features, but a combination of discrete components. Close