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• 1. [Article] White River Watershed Assessment

  Abstract -- This Assessment has been undertaken by the White River Watershed Council, in partnership with the Wasco County Soil and Water Conservation District. It is the intent of this Assessment to provide ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: White River Watershed Assessment Abstract -- This Assessment has been undertaken by the White River Watershed Council, in partnership with the Wasco County Soil and Water Conservation District. It is the intent of this Assessment to provide a reference point from which the stakeholders in the White River Watershed, those who live and work in the watershed, can continue to plan for the health of its lands and waters into the future. The assessment contains sections on: a watershed description, settlement and development, stream flow and water rights, irrigation and water management, runoff and erosion, water quality, channel types, riparian and wetlands conditions, aquatic habitat, upland habitat, and evaluation. Title: White River Watershed Assessment Abstract -- This Assessment has been undertaken by the White River Watershed Council, in partnership with the Wasco County Soil and Water Conservation District. It is the intent of this Assessment to provide a reference point from which the stakeholders in the White River Watershed, those who live and work in the watershed, can continue to plan for the health of its lands and waters into the future. The assessment contains sections on: a watershed description, settlement and development, stream flow and water rights, irrigation and water management, runoff and erosion, water quality, channel types, riparian and wetlands conditions, aquatic habitat, upland habitat, and evaluation. Close

• 2. [Article] Developing and Calibrating the Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-W2 for Banks Lake Washington

  Located in central Washington State, Banks Lake serves as an irrigation storage reservoir for the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project and is home to a diverse fisheries population. The current hydrologic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Developing and Calibrating the Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-W2 for Banks Lake Washington Author: McCulloch, Andrew John Year: 2011 Located in central Washington State, Banks Lake serves as an irrigation storage reservoir for the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project and is home to a diverse fisheries population. The current hydrologic management strategies used for Banks Lake have been chosen to serve two purposes: to adequately store and provide irrigation water for the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project and to maintain a healthy aquatic environment suitable for the growth and habitation of local flora and fauna. Increased needs for irrigation water within arid central Washington poses additional challenges to reservoir managers so that irrigation needs are met without damaging the present aquatic environment within Banks Lake. Future plans by the Washington Department of Ecology to use Banks Lake storage to replenish ground water reserves of the Odessa Subarea aquifer have required an investigation into how increased seasonal drawdown may affect fish growth, fish habitat and overall limnology of Banks Lake. The goal of this project is to produce a hydrodynamic and water quality model of Banks Lake that can predict the impacts of management strategies on the lake's water quality and the linkage of lake management to fish habitat. Title: Developing and Calibrating the Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-W2 for Banks Lake Washington Author: McCulloch, Andrew John Year: 2011 Located in central Washington State, Banks Lake serves as an irrigation storage reservoir for the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project and is home to a diverse fisheries population. The current hydrologic management strategies used for Banks Lake have been chosen to serve two purposes: to adequately store and provide irrigation water for the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project and to maintain a healthy aquatic environment suitable for the growth and habitation of local flora and fauna. Increased needs for irrigation water within arid central Washington poses additional challenges to reservoir managers so that irrigation needs are met without damaging the present aquatic environment within Banks Lake. Future plans by the Washington Department of Ecology to use Banks Lake storage to replenish ground water reserves of the Odessa Subarea aquifer have required an investigation into how increased seasonal drawdown may affect fish growth, fish habitat and overall limnology of Banks Lake. The goal of this project is to produce a hydrodynamic and water quality model of Banks Lake that can predict the impacts of management strategies on the lake's water quality and the linkage of lake management to fish habitat. Close

• 3. [Article] Agricultural Management Decisions Impact Isoprene Emission and Physiology of Arundo donax, an Emerging Bioenergy Crop

  Arundo donax (Giant Reed) is quickly being developed as a rapidly-growing, robust, and highly productive bioenergy crop, with large scale cultivation of this species planned for the Columbia River basin ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Agricultural Management Decisions Impact Isoprene Emission and Physiology of Arundo donax, an Emerging Bioenergy Crop Author: Maxfield, Jason Charles Year: 2014 Arundo donax (Giant Reed) is quickly being developed as a rapidly-growing, robust, and highly productive bioenergy crop, with large scale cultivation of this species planned for the Columbia River basin of the Pacific Northwest (USA). Despite its potential as a next generation biomass crop, relatively few studies have examined the physiological performance of A. donax under agricultural conditions. Unlike traditional crops, A. donax is known to be a high-emitter of the volatile compound isoprene, which may significantly impact regional air quality, but it has not been widely cultivated in North America and little is known about how this species will perform in the Pacific Northwest. Over two field seasons, we measured isoprene fluxes from A. donax plants in both greenhouse conditions and in an agricultural field setting under a variety of conditions and fertilizer treatments. We also measured several other attributes of A. donax productivity and leaf physiology including chlorophyll content, photosynthesis rate, stomatal conductance, specific leaf mass, water use efficiency and gas exchange. We found that A. donax physiologically performs well under cultivation in the Columbia River basin, but that it also emits isoprene at significantly higher rates than previous reports indicate. We also found that both isoprene emission and leaf physiology were highly affected by agricultural management decisions, including nitrogen and irrigation management. Our findings indicate that crop management strategies can be developed that simultaneously seek to minimize isoprene emission while maximizing biomass production in this newly emerging bioenergy crop. Title: Agricultural Management Decisions Impact Isoprene Emission and Physiology of Arundo donax, an Emerging Bioenergy Crop Author: Maxfield, Jason Charles Year: 2014 Arundo donax (Giant Reed) is quickly being developed as a rapidly-growing, robust, and highly productive bioenergy crop, with large scale cultivation of this species planned for the Columbia River basin of the Pacific Northwest (USA). Despite its potential as a next generation biomass crop, relatively few studies have examined the physiological performance of A. donax under agricultural conditions. Unlike traditional crops, A. donax is known to be a high-emitter of the volatile compound isoprene, which may significantly impact regional air quality, but it has not been widely cultivated in North America and little is known about how this species will perform in the Pacific Northwest. Over two field seasons, we measured isoprene fluxes from A. donax plants in both greenhouse conditions and in an agricultural field setting under a variety of conditions and fertilizer treatments. We also measured several other attributes of A. donax productivity and leaf physiology including chlorophyll content, photosynthesis rate, stomatal conductance, specific leaf mass, water use efficiency and gas exchange. We found that A. donax physiologically performs well under cultivation in the Columbia River basin, but that it also emits isoprene at significantly higher rates than previous reports indicate. We also found that both isoprene emission and leaf physiology were highly affected by agricultural management decisions, including nitrogen and irrigation management. Our findings indicate that crop management strategies can be developed that simultaneously seek to minimize isoprene emission while maximizing biomass production in this newly emerging bioenergy crop. Close

• 4. [Article] The effect of human activity on the middle course of the Tualatin River, Oregon

  A diurnal study of biological, chemical, and physical parameters was made on the middle course of the, Tualatin River, which drains a 1840 km2 (711 mi2) basin adjacent to metropolitan Portland, Oregon. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The effect of human activity on the middle course of the Tualatin River, Oregon Author: Carter, Lolita M. Year: 1975 A diurnal study of biological, chemical, and physical parameters was made on the middle course of the, Tualatin River, which drains a 1840 km2 (711 mi2) basin adjacent to metropolitan Portland, Oregon. This portion of the river lies along land in transition of use from rural agriculture to highly urbanized development. There is no nutrient loading of the river from farming practices because there was no return of water from summer, sprinkler irrigation of commercial crops. However, irrigation significantly reduces the volume of water in the river in the summers. Effluents from sewage treatment plants flowing into the tributaries that drain the highly urbanized eastern areas of the river basin are the main cause of degraded water quality and algal biomass in the lower reaches of the river. The Tualatin River above the mouth of Rock Creek is relatively unpolluted, but downstream from Rock Creek the river is highly eutrophic and during the periods of low flow in the summer serves as a sewage oxidation channel. In this same portion of the river there is also evidence that nitrification occurs. Winter floods leach nitrate-nitrogen from the basin, but in the summer the possibility exists. that nitrate-nitrogen may be a limiting nutrient for algal productivity in the river above Hillsboro. The principal source of poly-phosphates is from sewage treatment plant effluents, but concentrations of poly-phosphates in the middle reaches of the river indicate that there is a natural source of poly- and/or ortho-phosphates in the watershed. Removal of phosphorous compounds from the effluents probably would not affect the large algal blooms occurring in the river below Hillsboro. Trace metal analyses indicated that iron, potassium, nickel, zinc, lead, copper, cobalt, and chromium concentrations were higher during flooding. Turbidity readings suggest that these trace elements are deposited on the floodplain. Melted snow water, which caused one of the winter floods, contained concentrations of zinc, ·copper, and lead greater than those found in the river during the flood. Greater concentrations of arsenic and zinc came from farmland than from urban areas. Diversities of the net plankton as measured by the Shannon-Weaver Index did not change from season to season, nor with downstream flow. Species in the net plankton were benthic forms at the upper stations and planktonic forms downstream from Hillsboro, especially in the summer when the reduced flow caused the river to pond. The enriched effluents from Rock Creek did not affect the diversity of the organisms downstream, but supported a larger biomass. By rating the diversities with other studies it was found that the middle course of the Tualatin River is eutrophic but not heavily polluted. A diurnal study was especially valuable from April to September, inclusive, when insolation and temperatures favored biological activities such as photosynthesis and decomposition. From November to January little diurnal change in the water quality was found. Farming had its greatest impact in the quantity of water and municipalities had a more serious impact on the water quality in the middle course of the Tualatin River. Even with the reduced flow from agricultural irrigation, the river can maintain relatively good water quality, except when effluents from sewage plants caused highly eutrophic conditions. Title: The effect of human activity on the middle course of the Tualatin River, Oregon Author: Carter, Lolita M. Year: 1975 A diurnal study of biological, chemical, and physical parameters was made on the middle course of the, Tualatin River, which drains a 1840 km2 (711 mi2) basin adjacent to metropolitan Portland, Oregon. This portion of the river lies along land in transition of use from rural agriculture to highly urbanized development. There is no nutrient loading of the river from farming practices because there was no return of water from summer, sprinkler irrigation of commercial crops. However, irrigation significantly reduces the volume of water in the river in the summers. Effluents from sewage treatment plants flowing into the tributaries that drain the highly urbanized eastern areas of the river basin are the main cause of degraded water quality and algal biomass in the lower reaches of the river. The Tualatin River above the mouth of Rock Creek is relatively unpolluted, but downstream from Rock Creek the river is highly eutrophic and during the periods of low flow in the summer serves as a sewage oxidation channel. In this same portion of the river there is also evidence that nitrification occurs. Winter floods leach nitrate-nitrogen from the basin, but in the summer the possibility exists. that nitrate-nitrogen may be a limiting nutrient for algal productivity in the river above Hillsboro. The principal source of poly-phosphates is from sewage treatment plant effluents, but concentrations of poly-phosphates in the middle reaches of the river indicate that there is a natural source of poly- and/or ortho-phosphates in the watershed. Removal of phosphorous compounds from the effluents probably would not affect the large algal blooms occurring in the river below Hillsboro. Trace metal analyses indicated that iron, potassium, nickel, zinc, lead, copper, cobalt, and chromium concentrations were higher during flooding. Turbidity readings suggest that these trace elements are deposited on the floodplain. Melted snow water, which caused one of the winter floods, contained concentrations of zinc, ·copper, and lead greater than those found in the river during the flood. Greater concentrations of arsenic and zinc came from farmland than from urban areas. Diversities of the net plankton as measured by the Shannon-Weaver Index did not change from season to season, nor with downstream flow. Species in the net plankton were benthic forms at the upper stations and planktonic forms downstream from Hillsboro, especially in the summer when the reduced flow caused the river to pond. The enriched effluents from Rock Creek did not affect the diversity of the organisms downstream, but supported a larger biomass. By rating the diversities with other studies it was found that the middle course of the Tualatin River is eutrophic but not heavily polluted. A diurnal study was especially valuable from April to September, inclusive, when insolation and temperatures favored biological activities such as photosynthesis and decomposition. From November to January little diurnal change in the water quality was found. Farming had its greatest impact in the quantity of water and municipalities had a more serious impact on the water quality in the middle course of the Tualatin River. Even with the reduced flow from agricultural irrigation, the river can maintain relatively good water quality, except when effluents from sewage plants caused highly eutrophic conditions. Close

• 5. [Article] Estimation of Surface Water Temperature of the Tigris River System in Iraq

  Monitoring surface water temperatures (Tw) in lakes, rivers, and reservoirs is a key component of environmental management and influences water quality by affecting bio-geo chemical reaction rates, altering ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimation of Surface Water Temperature of the Tigris River System in Iraq Author: Al-Murib, M., Wells, Scott A., Talke, Stefan A. Year: 2017 Monitoring surface water temperatures (Tw) in lakes, rivers, and reservoirs is a key component of environmental management and influences water quality by affecting bio-geo chemical reaction rates, altering the saturation concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO), and influencing the susceptibility of fish to disease. Temperatures in the Tigris River, one of the largest rivers in the Middle East, are influenced by factors such as heat fluxes at the air-water and human activities such as direct discharge of water to the river. However, modeling and management of water temperature is limited by a paucity of in-situ data, which prevents calibration of models. In this study, we infill data gaps by estimating Tw using the thermal bands of both the Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 7 ETM+ sensors. These satellite-based estimates, typically measured once or twice a month with 60-120m resolution, are then used to develop a regression model that relates daily water temperature to daily air temperature and river flow. These estimates are used to define the Tw boundary conditions for a hydrodynamic and water quality model of the Tigris River based on a 2D implementation of the CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) numerical model. Initial results suggest that there is a significant agreement between modeled and remotely estimated data of Tw. Results suggest that short-wave solar radiation is the most important factor that controls seasonal Tw variations. However, anthropogenic influence is observed as a result of return irrigation flows and flows from Tharthar Lake. Title: Estimation of Surface Water Temperature of the Tigris River System in Iraq Author: Al-Murib, M., Wells, Scott A., Talke, Stefan A. Year: 2017 Monitoring surface water temperatures (Tw) in lakes, rivers, and reservoirs is a key component of environmental management and influences water quality by affecting bio-geo chemical reaction rates, altering the saturation concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO), and influencing the susceptibility of fish to disease. Temperatures in the Tigris River, one of the largest rivers in the Middle East, are influenced by factors such as heat fluxes at the air-water and human activities such as direct discharge of water to the river. However, modeling and management of water temperature is limited by a paucity of in-situ data, which prevents calibration of models. In this study, we infill data gaps by estimating Tw using the thermal bands of both the Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 7 ETM+ sensors. These satellite-based estimates, typically measured once or twice a month with 60-120m resolution, are then used to develop a regression model that relates daily water temperature to daily air temperature and river flow. These estimates are used to define the Tw boundary conditions for a hydrodynamic and water quality model of the Tigris River based on a 2D implementation of the CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) numerical model. Initial results suggest that there is a significant agreement between modeled and remotely estimated data of Tw. Results suggest that short-wave solar radiation is the most important factor that controls seasonal Tw variations. However, anthropogenic influence is observed as a result of return irrigation flows and flows from Tharthar Lake. Close

• 6. [Article] Modeling Macrophytes of the Columbia Slough, Oregon

  The Columbia Slough is a tidally influenced freshwater system of wetlands, channels, and lakes located within the Portland, Oregon metropolitan area at the confluence of the Willamette and Columbia Rivers. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Modeling Macrophytes of the Columbia Slough, Oregon Author: Berger, Chris, Wells, Scott A. Year: 1999 The Columbia Slough is a tidally influenced freshwater system of wetlands, channels, and lakes located within the Portland, Oregon metropolitan area at the confluence of the Willamette and Columbia Rivers. It is a eutrophic water body susceptible to algae blooms and crashes and periods of high pH which violate water quality standards. High nutrient loads from groundwater principally controls algae productivity. Past structural changes to the Columbia Slough have included filling of wetlands and lakes and the construction of levees, dikes, culverts and irrigation channels. These changes have altered the natural flow dynamics creating an environment more conducive to eutrophication. A hydrodynamic and water quality model was used to evaluate management alternatives to improve water quality in the system. The model was developed using the Corps of Engineers two-dimensional, laterally averaged, dynamic water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2. CE-QUAL-W2 consists of directly coupled hydrodynamic and water quality transport. Recently, a management strategy of flow augmentation using groundwater coupled with shorter in-pool detention times has reduced algae growth. However, the resulting increase in water clarity has created an environment favorable to the growth of aquatic plants. The aquatic plants, or macrophytes, have increased water levels and detention time by increasing channel friction and blockage. Accurate predictions of hydrodynamics were essential for evaluating the water quality impact of flow management strategies. Macrophytes and epiphyton affect nutrient cycling by removing nutrients from the water column and sediment. To help evaluate the study of new management alternatives, the Columbia Slough model was expanded to simulate the water quality and hydrodynamic effects of macrophytes and epiphyton. Title: Modeling Macrophytes of the Columbia Slough, Oregon Author: Berger, Chris, Wells, Scott A. Year: 1999 The Columbia Slough is a tidally influenced freshwater system of wetlands, channels, and lakes located within the Portland, Oregon metropolitan area at the confluence of the Willamette and Columbia Rivers. It is a eutrophic water body susceptible to algae blooms and crashes and periods of high pH which violate water quality standards. High nutrient loads from groundwater principally controls algae productivity. Past structural changes to the Columbia Slough have included filling of wetlands and lakes and the construction of levees, dikes, culverts and irrigation channels. These changes have altered the natural flow dynamics creating an environment more conducive to eutrophication. A hydrodynamic and water quality model was used to evaluate management alternatives to improve water quality in the system. The model was developed using the Corps of Engineers two-dimensional, laterally averaged, dynamic water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2. CE-QUAL-W2 consists of directly coupled hydrodynamic and water quality transport. Recently, a management strategy of flow augmentation using groundwater coupled with shorter in-pool detention times has reduced algae growth. However, the resulting increase in water clarity has created an environment favorable to the growth of aquatic plants. The aquatic plants, or macrophytes, have increased water levels and detention time by increasing channel friction and blockage. Accurate predictions of hydrodynamics were essential for evaluating the water quality impact of flow management strategies. Macrophytes and epiphyton affect nutrient cycling by removing nutrients from the water column and sediment. To help evaluate the study of new management alternatives, the Columbia Slough model was expanded to simulate the water quality and hydrodynamic effects of macrophytes and epiphyton. Close

• 7. [Article] Estimation of Columbia River Virgin Flow: 1879 to 1928

  The Columbia River has historically been a major source of economic activity for the Pacific Northwest, and is one of the more heavily modified rivers in the United States today. Understanding human and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimation of Columbia River Virgin Flow: 1879 to 1928 Author: Naik, Pradeep K., Jay, David A. Year: 2005 The Columbia River has historically been a major source of economic activity for the Pacific Northwest, and is one of the more heavily modified rivers in the United States today. Understanding human and climate-induced changes in its hydrologic properties is, therefore, a topic of considerable interest. Long streamflow records are essential to determining how runoff has changed over time. Daily streamflow records of the Columbia River at The Dalles dates back to June 1978. However, the observed daily flow does not alone provide enough information to understand or separate anthropogenic and climate effects. It is necessary also to have an estimate of virgin flow of the river to provide a historical perspective of water resources development, separate anthropogenic and climate effects, and compare present water use scenarios with those of the past decades. The United State Geological Survey (USGS) has calculated a monthly averaged adjusted river flow at The Dalles for 1879-1999 that accounts for the effects of flow regulation. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has estimated the monthly averaged virgin (or naturalized) flow at The Dalles, i.e., the flow in the absence of both flow regulation and irrigation depletion for 1929-89. We have estimated the monthly virgin flow of the Columbia River at The Dalles from records of irrigated area for the missing years, i.e., for the period 1879-1928. In addition, a filtered version of the daily observed flows were combined with monthly virgin flow corrections to obtain estimates of daily virgin flows with realistic higher moments and spectral properties. Examination of the virgin flow record shows that climate change since late 19th century has caused a decrease of >7% in its annual average flow volume. The decrease in flow due to irrigation diversion during the same period is also ~7%. Broadly speaking, there are three periods of Columbia River flow management. Before 1900, mainstem dams were absent and flow diversions relatively small. Numerous dams were constructed between 1900 and 1970, and irrigation depletion increased 500%. Since about 1970, river flows have been managed on a system-wide basin, effecting significant interannual transfers of flows for the first time. Title: Estimation of Columbia River Virgin Flow: 1879 to 1928 Author: Naik, Pradeep K., Jay, David A. Year: 2005 The Columbia River has historically been a major source of economic activity for the Pacific Northwest, and is one of the more heavily modified rivers in the United States today. Understanding human and climate-induced changes in its hydrologic properties is, therefore, a topic of considerable interest. Long streamflow records are essential to determining how runoff has changed over time. Daily streamflow records of the Columbia River at The Dalles dates back to June 1978. However, the observed daily flow does not alone provide enough information to understand or separate anthropogenic and climate effects. It is necessary also to have an estimate of virgin flow of the river to provide a historical perspective of water resources development, separate anthropogenic and climate effects, and compare present water use scenarios with those of the past decades. The United State Geological Survey (USGS) has calculated a monthly averaged adjusted river flow at The Dalles for 1879-1999 that accounts for the effects of flow regulation. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has estimated the monthly averaged virgin (or naturalized) flow at The Dalles, i.e., the flow in the absence of both flow regulation and irrigation depletion for 1929-89. We have estimated the monthly virgin flow of the Columbia River at The Dalles from records of irrigated area for the missing years, i.e., for the period 1879-1928. In addition, a filtered version of the daily observed flows were combined with monthly virgin flow corrections to obtain estimates of daily virgin flows with realistic higher moments and spectral properties. Examination of the virgin flow record shows that climate change since late 19th century has caused a decrease of >7% in its annual average flow volume. The decrease in flow due to irrigation diversion during the same period is also ~7%. Broadly speaking, there are three periods of Columbia River flow management. Before 1900, mainstem dams were absent and flow diversions relatively small. Numerous dams were constructed between 1900 and 1970, and irrigation depletion increased 500%. Since about 1970, river flows have been managed on a system-wide basin, effecting significant interannual transfers of flows for the first time. Close

• 8. [Article] LARC: Local Agricultural Resource Conservation

  In America today, over 75% of the nation’s water is used in the irrigation of agriculture. The main users -- and abusers -- of water in the United States are farmers. In addition, many areas in the U.S. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: LARC: Local Agricultural Resource Conservation Author: Justice, Dash, Davis, Josh, Crumble, Sid, Kinney, Ashlie Year: 2016 In America today, over 75% of the nation’s water is used in the irrigation of agriculture. The main users -- and abusers -- of water in the United States are farmers. In addition, many areas in the U.S. are facing drought conditions, especially in western states. Also, while the drought conditions in California are receding, water shortage as an issue demands a long term solution. Title: LARC: Local Agricultural Resource Conservation Author: Justice, Dash, Davis, Josh, Crumble, Sid, Kinney, Ashlie Year: 2016 In America today, over 75% of the nation’s water is used in the irrigation of agriculture. The main users -- and abusers -- of water in the United States are farmers. In addition, many areas in the U.S. are facing drought conditions, especially in western states. Also, while the drought conditions in California are receding, water shortage as an issue demands a long term solution. Close

• 9. [Article] Climate Change Effects and Water Vulnerability in the Molalla Pudding River Basin, Oregon, USA

  Water management plans are typically developed using historical data records and historical return periods for extreme events, such as floods or droughts. Since these analyses of return periods typically ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Effects and Water Vulnerability in the Molalla Pudding River Basin, Oregon, USA Author: Wherry, Susan Amelia Year: 2012 Water management plans are typically developed using historical data records and historical return periods for extreme events, such as floods or droughts. Since these analyses of return periods typically assume a certain degree of stationarity (constant mean, standard deviation, distribution) in hydrologic variables, the potential future impacts of climate change are excluded. In developing water management plans, predicted changes to climate variables should be considered to evaluate the degree of non-stationarity that may exist in the future. In this way, regions most sensitive to climate change can be identified and managed appropriately. This study performed such a task by using predicted climate data that were downscaled from general circulation models (GCM) by regional climate models (RCM) to compare climate variables in the historical period of 1971-1998 to the future period of 2041-2068. The study evaluated the precipitation and minimum/maximum temperature data from five different GCM/RCM combinations: 1) CCSM/CRCM; 2) CCSM/WRFG; 3) CGCM3/CRCM; 4) CGCM3/WRFG; and 5) HadCM3/HRM3. The five datasets were then used to calculate drought indices and drive a calibrated PRMS model of the Molalla Pudding river basin in order to evaluate changes in droughts and streamflow. The predicted changes in droughts and streamflow were then evaluated with social/economic factors for twelve cities in the Molalla Pudding river basin by two different water vulnerability indices. The index values were used to determine a rank for each city that indicated its relative vulnerability to water scarcity as compared to the other cities. In this study, three out of the five datasets predicted increased precipitation (+97-115 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin and the two datasets using the CCSM GCM data predicted either no change or slightly decreased precipitation (-60 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin in 2041-2068. All datasets predicted increased minimum and maximum average temperature of +1.5°C and +1.4°C respectively, and all datasets displayed increasing trends in temperature. The drought indices predicted fewer drought events (-2.4 events) over 2041-2068 with no change in duration, and no change to the number of serious drought events over 2041-2068 but with increased durations (+1.9 months). Results from the hydrologic modeling predicted increased streamflow (+4-249 cfs) in four out of the five future datasets. Using the predicted changes in hydrologic variables and social/economic census data from 2000, two types of water vulnerability indices were calculated for the twelve cities of interest. The results suggested that cities in the western portion of the basin would be more susceptible to current and future water vulnerability due to high irrigation demands for water and high social vulnerability as determined by minority populations and higher poverty, while the small cities with less dependence on agriculture would be less vulnerable. Title: Climate Change Effects and Water Vulnerability in the Molalla Pudding River Basin, Oregon, USA Author: Wherry, Susan Amelia Year: 2012 Water management plans are typically developed using historical data records and historical return periods for extreme events, such as floods or droughts. Since these analyses of return periods typically assume a certain degree of stationarity (constant mean, standard deviation, distribution) in hydrologic variables, the potential future impacts of climate change are excluded. In developing water management plans, predicted changes to climate variables should be considered to evaluate the degree of non-stationarity that may exist in the future. In this way, regions most sensitive to climate change can be identified and managed appropriately. This study performed such a task by using predicted climate data that were downscaled from general circulation models (GCM) by regional climate models (RCM) to compare climate variables in the historical period of 1971-1998 to the future period of 2041-2068. The study evaluated the precipitation and minimum/maximum temperature data from five different GCM/RCM combinations: 1) CCSM/CRCM; 2) CCSM/WRFG; 3) CGCM3/CRCM; 4) CGCM3/WRFG; and 5) HadCM3/HRM3. The five datasets were then used to calculate drought indices and drive a calibrated PRMS model of the Molalla Pudding river basin in order to evaluate changes in droughts and streamflow. The predicted changes in droughts and streamflow were then evaluated with social/economic factors for twelve cities in the Molalla Pudding river basin by two different water vulnerability indices. The index values were used to determine a rank for each city that indicated its relative vulnerability to water scarcity as compared to the other cities. In this study, three out of the five datasets predicted increased precipitation (+97-115 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin and the two datasets using the CCSM GCM data predicted either no change or slightly decreased precipitation (-60 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin in 2041-2068. All datasets predicted increased minimum and maximum average temperature of +1.5°C and +1.4°C respectively, and all datasets displayed increasing trends in temperature. The drought indices predicted fewer drought events (-2.4 events) over 2041-2068 with no change in duration, and no change to the number of serious drought events over 2041-2068 but with increased durations (+1.9 months). Results from the hydrologic modeling predicted increased streamflow (+4-249 cfs) in four out of the five future datasets. Using the predicted changes in hydrologic variables and social/economic census data from 2000, two types of water vulnerability indices were calculated for the twelve cities of interest. The results suggested that cities in the western portion of the basin would be more susceptible to current and future water vulnerability due to high irrigation demands for water and high social vulnerability as determined by minority populations and higher poverty, while the small cities with less dependence on agriculture would be less vulnerable. Close

• 10. [Article] Beyond Sustainable Bounds: Changing Weather, Emigration, and Irrigation in a Farming Village of Sichuan, China, 1945-2012

  This thesis presents the results of research in a small village located in the mountains of Sichuan Province in southwestern China. The thesis argues that traditional irrigation practices vital to paddy-rice ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Beyond Sustainable Bounds: Changing Weather, Emigration, and Irrigation in a Farming Village of Sichuan, China, 1945-2012 Author: Parker, Joseph Lynn Year: 2013 This thesis presents the results of research in a small village located in the mountains of Sichuan Province in southwestern China. The thesis argues that traditional irrigation practices vital to paddy-rice production in the village have been stressed by local weather events. It also argues that local villagers have not responded effectively to such changes, and that failure to adjust has contributed to social stress observed at the site. During the earlier years of the study period (1945 to 2012), improvements were made in local irrigation, which seem to have helped farmers continue with traditional subsistence wet-rice farming in a fragile mountain environment. However, in later years of the period village social order showed two significant signs of collapse: first, because of emigration, fewer people were left to farm higher mountain levels so farm land was being abandoned; second, social crowding in lower level riverside farming areas, partly the result of highland emigration, began reducing the amount of land being farmed there. While reducing intensive cropping of highland farming areas can result in spontaneous recovery of natural resources such as soil and water, crowding in lower areas can contribute to deterioration of natural resources in the lower village farmland. Crowding can, in addition, have a bearing on community health problems. The thesis results are of value to researchers concerned with the adaptive behavior of local farming communities trying to maintain their traditional irrigation-dependent way of life in a fragile mountain environment while experiencing the effects of changeable weather. Thesis results are of additional value to those who study the impact on society of earth-warming, especially if variable local weather in the Dabashan is shown to be related to global climate change. Title: Beyond Sustainable Bounds: Changing Weather, Emigration, and Irrigation in a Farming Village of Sichuan, China, 1945-2012 Author: Parker, Joseph Lynn Year: 2013 This thesis presents the results of research in a small village located in the mountains of Sichuan Province in southwestern China. The thesis argues that traditional irrigation practices vital to paddy-rice production in the village have been stressed by local weather events. It also argues that local villagers have not responded effectively to such changes, and that failure to adjust has contributed to social stress observed at the site. During the earlier years of the study period (1945 to 2012), improvements were made in local irrigation, which seem to have helped farmers continue with traditional subsistence wet-rice farming in a fragile mountain environment. However, in later years of the period village social order showed two significant signs of collapse: first, because of emigration, fewer people were left to farm higher mountain levels so farm land was being abandoned; second, social crowding in lower level riverside farming areas, partly the result of highland emigration, began reducing the amount of land being farmed there. While reducing intensive cropping of highland farming areas can result in spontaneous recovery of natural resources such as soil and water, crowding in lower areas can contribute to deterioration of natural resources in the lower village farmland. Crowding can, in addition, have a bearing on community health problems. The thesis results are of value to researchers concerned with the adaptive behavior of local farming communities trying to maintain their traditional irrigation-dependent way of life in a fragile mountain environment while experiencing the effects of changeable weather. Thesis results are of additional value to those who study the impact on society of earth-warming, especially if variable local weather in the Dabashan is shown to be related to global climate change. Close