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• 61. [Article] Improving Projections of Tidal Marsh Persistence under Climate Change with Remote Sensing and Site-Specific Data

  Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that are threatened by climate change and sea-level rise. To characterize baseline condition and historic climate sensitivities, and improve projections into the future, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Improving Projections of Tidal Marsh Persistence under Climate Change with Remote Sensing and Site-Specific Data Author: Buffington, Kevin John Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that are threatened by climate change and sea-level rise. To characterize baseline condition and historic climate sensitivities, and improve projections into the future, new methods are required that integrate data from the field and remote sensing platforms. Marsh elevation response models can be calibrated with site-specific data to determine the vulnerability of a marsh to sea-level rise and help guide management decisions. Elevation models are sensitive to initial elevation, the rate of accretion, and aboveground biomass. The overarching goal of this dissertation was to develop techniques to improve these important model inputs and evaluate the range of spatial and temporal variation. Light detection and ranging (lidar) is an invaluable tool for collecting elevation data, however dense vegetation prevents the accurate measurement of the tidal marsh surface. In Chapter 2, I describe the development of a technique to calibrate lidar digital elevation models with survey elevation data using readily available multispectral aerial imagery from the National Agricultural Inventory Program (NAIP). Using survey elevation data across 17 Pacific Coast tidal marshes, I demonstrated the utility of the Lidar Elevation Adjustment with NDVI (LEAN) technique to account for the positive bias in lidar due to vegetation. LEAN reduced error from an average of 23.1 cm to 7.2 cm root mean squared error and removed the positive bias caused by vegetation. This increase in accuracy will facilitate more accurate assessments of current and future vulnerability to sea-level rise. The phenology of aboveground biomass in tidal marsh plants in relation to climate variation has not been explored in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). In Chapter 3 I explain how I leveraged the Landsat archive and cloud computing capabilities to assess how Tasseled Cap Greenness (TCG, a proxy for aboveground biomass) in three PNW tidal marshes has responded to recent variation in climate to characterize sensitivity to climate change. Through analysis of over 3700 Landsat images obtained from 1984-2015, I found increased annual precipitation resulted in a higher peak TCG, while warmer May temperatures resulted in an earlier day of peak TCG. These results also demonstrate how time-series analysis of remote sensing data can be used to examine the sensitivity of tidal marsh plants to climate variability and directional change. The range of variation in tidal marsh accretion rates has not been characterized across the PNW. For Chapter 4, I collected and analyzed twenty-two soil cores from eight estuaries to estimate historic accretion rates with radioisotope dating techniques and evaluated the amount and source of variation across estuaries. I found that tidal marshes across the PNW had accretion rates greater than the current rate of sea-level rise, ranging from 2.3 – 7.3 mm yr⁻¹. Using a watershed-scale analysis, I found that long-term average annual fluvial discharge was the top predictor of tidal marsh accretion rates. Additionally, I found that calibrating the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) with accretion rate data from nearby estuaries can result in uncertainties of up to 41% (50 cm) after 100 years. Finally, in Chapter 5, I demonstrate that a range of 62 cm of error is possible in WARMER models after a 100 year simulation when both uncorrected lidar and non-local accretion rates are used, fundamentally changing the interpretation of the results. Altogether, this dissertation illustrates the importance of collecting site-specific wetland vegetation and elevation data and demonstrates how lidar and multispectral remote sensing data can be leveraged to improve our understanding of how climate variability and change impacts coastal ecosystems. Title: Improving Projections of Tidal Marsh Persistence under Climate Change with Remote Sensing and Site-Specific Data Author: Buffington, Kevin John Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that are threatened by climate change and sea-level rise. To characterize baseline condition and historic climate sensitivities, and improve projections into the future, new methods are required that integrate data from the field and remote sensing platforms. Marsh elevation response models can be calibrated with site-specific data to determine the vulnerability of a marsh to sea-level rise and help guide management decisions. Elevation models are sensitive to initial elevation, the rate of accretion, and aboveground biomass. The overarching goal of this dissertation was to develop techniques to improve these important model inputs and evaluate the range of spatial and temporal variation. Light detection and ranging (lidar) is an invaluable tool for collecting elevation data, however dense vegetation prevents the accurate measurement of the tidal marsh surface. In Chapter 2, I describe the development of a technique to calibrate lidar digital elevation models with survey elevation data using readily available multispectral aerial imagery from the National Agricultural Inventory Program (NAIP). Using survey elevation data across 17 Pacific Coast tidal marshes, I demonstrated the utility of the Lidar Elevation Adjustment with NDVI (LEAN) technique to account for the positive bias in lidar due to vegetation. LEAN reduced error from an average of 23.1 cm to 7.2 cm root mean squared error and removed the positive bias caused by vegetation. This increase in accuracy will facilitate more accurate assessments of current and future vulnerability to sea-level rise. The phenology of aboveground biomass in tidal marsh plants in relation to climate variation has not been explored in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). In Chapter 3 I explain how I leveraged the Landsat archive and cloud computing capabilities to assess how Tasseled Cap Greenness (TCG, a proxy for aboveground biomass) in three PNW tidal marshes has responded to recent variation in climate to characterize sensitivity to climate change. Through analysis of over 3700 Landsat images obtained from 1984-2015, I found increased annual precipitation resulted in a higher peak TCG, while warmer May temperatures resulted in an earlier day of peak TCG. These results also demonstrate how time-series analysis of remote sensing data can be used to examine the sensitivity of tidal marsh plants to climate variability and directional change. The range of variation in tidal marsh accretion rates has not been characterized across the PNW. For Chapter 4, I collected and analyzed twenty-two soil cores from eight estuaries to estimate historic accretion rates with radioisotope dating techniques and evaluated the amount and source of variation across estuaries. I found that tidal marshes across the PNW had accretion rates greater than the current rate of sea-level rise, ranging from 2.3 – 7.3 mm yr⁻¹. Using a watershed-scale analysis, I found that long-term average annual fluvial discharge was the top predictor of tidal marsh accretion rates. Additionally, I found that calibrating the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) with accretion rate data from nearby estuaries can result in uncertainties of up to 41% (50 cm) after 100 years. Finally, in Chapter 5, I demonstrate that a range of 62 cm of error is possible in WARMER models after a 100 year simulation when both uncorrected lidar and non-local accretion rates are used, fundamentally changing the interpretation of the results. Altogether, this dissertation illustrates the importance of collecting site-specific wetland vegetation and elevation data and demonstrates how lidar and multispectral remote sensing data can be leveraged to improve our understanding of how climate variability and change impacts coastal ecosystems. Close

• 62. [Article] Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington

  Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington Author: Legg, Nicholas T. Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This thesis contains two manuscripts that respectively investigate the (1) initiation processes of debris flows in these glaciated catchments, and (2) debris flow occurrence and its effect on valley bottoms over the last thousand years. In a 2006 storm, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and distributed collapse of gully walls imply that clear water was transformed to debris flow through progressive addition of sediment along gully lengths. In the first study, we analyze gully changes, reconstruct runoff conditions, and assess spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions necessary for debris flow initiation in glaciated catchments. Gully measurements suggest that sediment bulking requires steep gradients, abundant unstable material, and sufficient gully length. Reconstruction of runoff generated during the storm suggests that glaciers are important for generating the runoff necessary for debris flow initiation, particularly because infiltration capacities on glacial till covered surfaces well exceed measured rainfall rates. Runoff generation from glaciers and abundant loose debris at their termini explain why all debris flows in the storm initiated from proglacial areas. Proglacial areas that produced debris flows have steeper drainage networks with significantly higher elevations and lower drainage areas, suggesting that debris flows are associated with high elevation glaciers with relatively steep proglacial areas. This correlation reflects positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. An indirect effect of glacier change is thus the change in the distribution of ice-free slopes, which influence a basin’s debris flow potential. These findings have implications for projections of debris flow activity in basins experiencing glacier change. The second study uses a variety of dating techniques to reconstruct a chronology of debris flows in the Kautz Creek valley on the southwest flank of Mount Rainier (Washington). Dendrochronologic dating of growth disturbances combined with lichenometric techniques constrained five debris flow ages from 1712 to 1915 AD. We also estimated ages of three debris flows ranging in age from ca. 970 to 1661. Run-out distances served as a proxy for debris flow magnitude, and indicate that at least 11, 2, and 1 debris flow(s) have traveled at least 1, 3, and 5 km from the valley head, respectively since ca. 1650. Valley form reflects the frequency-magnitude relationship indicated by the chronology. In the upper, relatively steep valley, discrete debris flow snouts and secondary channels are abundant, suggesting a process of debris flow conveyance, channel plugging, and channel avulsion. The lower valley is characterized by relatively smooth surfaces, an absence of bouldery debris flow snouts, few secondary channels, and relatively old surface ages inferred from the presence of tephra layers. We infer that the lower valley is deposited on by relatively infrequent, large magnitude, low-yield strength debris flows like an event in 1947, which deposited wide, tabular lobes of debris outside of the main channel. Debris flows during the Little Ice Age (LIA) predominantly traveled no further than the upper valley. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the main Kautz Creek channel was filled during the LIA, enhancing debris flow deposition on the valley surface and perhaps reducing run-out lengths. Diminished areas and gradients in front of glaciers during the LIA also likely contributed to decreased run-out lengths. These findings suggest that changes in debris flow source and depositional zones resulting from temperature and glacier cycles influence the magnitude and run-out distances of debris flows, and the dynamics of deposition in valley bottoms. Title: Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington Author: Legg, Nicholas T. Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This thesis contains two manuscripts that respectively investigate the (1) initiation processes of debris flows in these glaciated catchments, and (2) debris flow occurrence and its effect on valley bottoms over the last thousand years. In a 2006 storm, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and distributed collapse of gully walls imply that clear water was transformed to debris flow through progressive addition of sediment along gully lengths. In the first study, we analyze gully changes, reconstruct runoff conditions, and assess spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions necessary for debris flow initiation in glaciated catchments. Gully measurements suggest that sediment bulking requires steep gradients, abundant unstable material, and sufficient gully length. Reconstruction of runoff generated during the storm suggests that glaciers are important for generating the runoff necessary for debris flow initiation, particularly because infiltration capacities on glacial till covered surfaces well exceed measured rainfall rates. Runoff generation from glaciers and abundant loose debris at their termini explain why all debris flows in the storm initiated from proglacial areas. Proglacial areas that produced debris flows have steeper drainage networks with significantly higher elevations and lower drainage areas, suggesting that debris flows are associated with high elevation glaciers with relatively steep proglacial areas. This correlation reflects positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. An indirect effect of glacier change is thus the change in the distribution of ice-free slopes, which influence a basin’s debris flow potential. These findings have implications for projections of debris flow activity in basins experiencing glacier change. The second study uses a variety of dating techniques to reconstruct a chronology of debris flows in the Kautz Creek valley on the southwest flank of Mount Rainier (Washington). Dendrochronologic dating of growth disturbances combined with lichenometric techniques constrained five debris flow ages from 1712 to 1915 AD. We also estimated ages of three debris flows ranging in age from ca. 970 to 1661. Run-out distances served as a proxy for debris flow magnitude, and indicate that at least 11, 2, and 1 debris flow(s) have traveled at least 1, 3, and 5 km from the valley head, respectively since ca. 1650. Valley form reflects the frequency-magnitude relationship indicated by the chronology. In the upper, relatively steep valley, discrete debris flow snouts and secondary channels are abundant, suggesting a process of debris flow conveyance, channel plugging, and channel avulsion. The lower valley is characterized by relatively smooth surfaces, an absence of bouldery debris flow snouts, few secondary channels, and relatively old surface ages inferred from the presence of tephra layers. We infer that the lower valley is deposited on by relatively infrequent, large magnitude, low-yield strength debris flows like an event in 1947, which deposited wide, tabular lobes of debris outside of the main channel. Debris flows during the Little Ice Age (LIA) predominantly traveled no further than the upper valley. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the main Kautz Creek channel was filled during the LIA, enhancing debris flow deposition on the valley surface and perhaps reducing run-out lengths. Diminished areas and gradients in front of glaciers during the LIA also likely contributed to decreased run-out lengths. These findings suggest that changes in debris flow source and depositional zones resulting from temperature and glacier cycles influence the magnitude and run-out distances of debris flows, and the dynamics of deposition in valley bottoms. Close