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• 1. [Article] Carbon isotopes show snowpack acts as a valuable moisture subsidy to mountain forests in the Oregon Cascades

  This study examines climatological influences, particularly that of snowpack, on tree growth and stable carbon isotope discrimination (Δ¹³C) from ~1980 to 2013 at two sites located in the upper reaches ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Carbon isotopes show snowpack acts as a valuable moisture subsidy to mountain forests in the Oregon Cascades Author: Ratcliff, Christopher J. This study examines climatological influences, particularly that of snowpack, on tree growth and stable carbon isotope discrimination (Δ¹³C) from ~1980 to 2013 at two sites located in the upper reaches of the McKenzie River watershed of the Oregon Cascade Mountains. We tested the use of Δ¹³C values from latewood, corroborated by tree-ring width chronologies as precipitation proxies to develop correlations between moisture stress and climate variables. Tree species at each site included Douglas-fir and mountain hemlock. Interpolated meteorological and snowpack data included snow water equivalent (SWE), precipitation, atmospheric temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), relative humidity (RH), and a metric estimating growing season length. Significant correlations between latewood Δ¹³C and winter SWE at each site indicated the importance of winter snowpack to our selected tree species (r = 0.35, r = 0.43). Late summer precipitation and relative humidity (RH) were also significantly correlated with Δ¹³C (r = 0.49, r = 0.46; r = 0.43, r = 0.44). High correlations at both sites reinforced that late summer VPD was the primary driver of Δ¹³C (r = - 0.67, r = -0.61), which is often associated with moisture stress. This was further supported by correlations between air temperature and Δ¹³C (r = -0.46, r = -0.47), which drives much of the variation in VPD. Growing season length also showed significance in mountain hemlocks at the site with longer average snowpack (r = -0.22, r = -0.44). Moisture supplied by spring snow melt is a seasonably limited resource, nonetheless both sites clearly showed that snowpack acts as a valuable moisture subsidy to coniferous mountain forests in the Oregon Cascades. This study acts as a useful case study for future investigations into the relationship between snowpack and forest health in the Pacific North West. Title: Carbon isotopes show snowpack acts as a valuable moisture subsidy to mountain forests in the Oregon Cascades Author: Ratcliff, Christopher J. This study examines climatological influences, particularly that of snowpack, on tree growth and stable carbon isotope discrimination (Δ¹³C) from ~1980 to 2013 at two sites located in the upper reaches of the McKenzie River watershed of the Oregon Cascade Mountains. We tested the use of Δ¹³C values from latewood, corroborated by tree-ring width chronologies as precipitation proxies to develop correlations between moisture stress and climate variables. Tree species at each site included Douglas-fir and mountain hemlock. Interpolated meteorological and snowpack data included snow water equivalent (SWE), precipitation, atmospheric temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), relative humidity (RH), and a metric estimating growing season length. Significant correlations between latewood Δ¹³C and winter SWE at each site indicated the importance of winter snowpack to our selected tree species (r = 0.35, r = 0.43). Late summer precipitation and relative humidity (RH) were also significantly correlated with Δ¹³C (r = 0.49, r = 0.46; r = 0.43, r = 0.44). High correlations at both sites reinforced that late summer VPD was the primary driver of Δ¹³C (r = - 0.67, r = -0.61), which is often associated with moisture stress. This was further supported by correlations between air temperature and Δ¹³C (r = -0.46, r = -0.47), which drives much of the variation in VPD. Growing season length also showed significance in mountain hemlocks at the site with longer average snowpack (r = -0.22, r = -0.44). Moisture supplied by spring snow melt is a seasonably limited resource, nonetheless both sites clearly showed that snowpack acts as a valuable moisture subsidy to coniferous mountain forests in the Oregon Cascades. This study acts as a useful case study for future investigations into the relationship between snowpack and forest health in the Pacific North West. Close

• 2. [Article] Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments

  The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments Author: Beamer, Jordan P. The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier cover change on regional hydrology. The region is data-sparse and contains a complex assemblage of topography and land cover, including a system of mountain glaciers that are retreating at some of the highest rates on Earth. The high rates of runoff from precipitation and glacial melt delivered by coastal rivers influence ocean circulation patterns, rates of global sea level rise, and provide spawning habitat for the large salmon populations. Physically-based hydrological modeling of the major water budget components of the GOA, driven using historical reanalysis weather data and land cover, reveals that the modeled water budget components, particularly precipitation input, vary widely between commonly-used weather products. The majority of the large freshwater flux into the GOA is derived from distributed coastal streams rather than the large inland rivers. The modeled seasonal aggregated GOA hydrograph is dominated by the spring and early summer snowmelt, and supplemented by late summer glacial ice melt. Model results demonstrate good agreement with NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in terms of annual amplitudes and long term losses (ice loss), and suggest that existing GRACE solutions, previously reported to represent glacier mass balance alone, are actually measuring the full water budget of land and ice surfaces. An ensemble of climate models and future emissions scenarios were paired with systematically altered land cover to test the sensitivity of the hydrologic system to changes in regional climate patterns and glacier coverage representative of late twenty first century conditions. Compared with the hindcast simulations, the model results forced with increased regional air temperatures and precipitation inputs and reduced glacier cover produce an increase in the annual GOA freshwater discharge volume. The seasonal GOA hydrograph is flattened due to increased winter runoff from more winter rainfall and less snow accumulation, and lower levels of snowmelt and glacier ice contribution. Large uncertainties exist in the direction of change in the glacier runoff component, primarily due to uncertainties that exist in predicting glacier response to climate change. Hydrological modeling with high resolution and inclusion of relevant physical processes can produce significantly improved products that are of high value to and in demand by numerous other scientific communities. However, the value and accuracy of the output from the hydrologic model is highly dependent on the weather forcing quality. Given the considerable importance of quality weather forcing for hydrologic modeling, it is imperative to assess the suitability of multiple products by evaluating local and regional performance and accounting for uncertainty. Additional efforts should be made to improve the spatial resolution of the reanalysis through downscaling and to strategically increase the number of weather stations at high elevations and incorporate that data into weather forcing datasets. Title: Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments Author: Beamer, Jordan P. The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier cover change on regional hydrology. The region is data-sparse and contains a complex assemblage of topography and land cover, including a system of mountain glaciers that are retreating at some of the highest rates on Earth. The high rates of runoff from precipitation and glacial melt delivered by coastal rivers influence ocean circulation patterns, rates of global sea level rise, and provide spawning habitat for the large salmon populations. Physically-based hydrological modeling of the major water budget components of the GOA, driven using historical reanalysis weather data and land cover, reveals that the modeled water budget components, particularly precipitation input, vary widely between commonly-used weather products. The majority of the large freshwater flux into the GOA is derived from distributed coastal streams rather than the large inland rivers. The modeled seasonal aggregated GOA hydrograph is dominated by the spring and early summer snowmelt, and supplemented by late summer glacial ice melt. Model results demonstrate good agreement with NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in terms of annual amplitudes and long term losses (ice loss), and suggest that existing GRACE solutions, previously reported to represent glacier mass balance alone, are actually measuring the full water budget of land and ice surfaces. An ensemble of climate models and future emissions scenarios were paired with systematically altered land cover to test the sensitivity of the hydrologic system to changes in regional climate patterns and glacier coverage representative of late twenty first century conditions. Compared with the hindcast simulations, the model results forced with increased regional air temperatures and precipitation inputs and reduced glacier cover produce an increase in the annual GOA freshwater discharge volume. The seasonal GOA hydrograph is flattened due to increased winter runoff from more winter rainfall and less snow accumulation, and lower levels of snowmelt and glacier ice contribution. Large uncertainties exist in the direction of change in the glacier runoff component, primarily due to uncertainties that exist in predicting glacier response to climate change. Hydrological modeling with high resolution and inclusion of relevant physical processes can produce significantly improved products that are of high value to and in demand by numerous other scientific communities. However, the value and accuracy of the output from the hydrologic model is highly dependent on the weather forcing quality. Given the considerable importance of quality weather forcing for hydrologic modeling, it is imperative to assess the suitability of multiple products by evaluating local and regional performance and accounting for uncertainty. Additional efforts should be made to improve the spatial resolution of the reanalysis through downscaling and to strategically increase the number of weather stations at high elevations and incorporate that data into weather forcing datasets. Close

• 3. [Article] Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

  The Appendix is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality Author: Bruggeman, Jason E., Nigro, Debora, Swem, Ted, Kennedy, Patricia L., Andersen, David E. The Appendix is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm Title: Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality Author: Bruggeman, Jason E., Nigro, Debora, Swem, Ted, Kennedy, Patricia L., Andersen, David E. The Appendix is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm Close

• 4. [Article] Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

  Appendix A is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality Author: Bruggeman, Jason E., Nigro, Debora, Andersen, David E., Kennedy, Patricia L., Swem, Ted Appendix A is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm Title: Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality Author: Bruggeman, Jason E., Nigro, Debora, Andersen, David E., Kennedy, Patricia L., Swem, Ted Appendix A is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm Close