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• 1. [Article] Determinants of In-Migration of College Students to the State of New York

  This paper analyzes factors affecting the migration of college students. Its purpose is to provide a better understanding of the relationship between student migration and state characteristics, including ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Determinants of In-Migration of College Students to the State of New York Author: Kyung, Wonseon Year: 1992 This paper analyzes factors affecting the migration of college students. Its purpose is to provide a better understanding of the relationship between student migration and state characteristics, including state education policy. The paper begins with an examination of previous migration studies of college students. This is followed by a brief description of the methodology employed in this study. A model for migration to the state of New York is estimated to identify the major determinants which are associated with the student migrant's home state characteristics acting as push factors. The paper concludes with a discussion of the empirical results and corresponding policy implications. Title: Determinants of In-Migration of College Students to the State of New York Author: Kyung, Wonseon Year: 1992 This paper analyzes factors affecting the migration of college students. Its purpose is to provide a better understanding of the relationship between student migration and state characteristics, including state education policy. The paper begins with an examination of previous migration studies of college students. This is followed by a brief description of the methodology employed in this study. A model for migration to the state of New York is estimated to identify the major determinants which are associated with the student migrant's home state characteristics acting as push factors. The paper concludes with a discussion of the empirical results and corresponding policy implications. Close

• 2. [Article] A Pivot Point? Economic Slow-Down Affects Oregon’s Migration Flow

  The combination of three components: fertility, mortality, and migration, collectively lead to population change. Fertility and mortality events in recent history, including escalated fertility levels ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Pivot Point? Economic Slow-Down Affects Oregon’s Migration Flow Author: Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2011 The combination of three components: fertility, mortality, and migration, collectively lead to population change. Fertility and mortality events in recent history, including escalated fertility levels associated with the ‘baby boom cohort’ and spikes in mortality linked to the Spanish Flu of 1918 for example, have produced demonstrative demographic effects. However, both the unpredictability and ability of migration to produce virtually immediate impacts, often enduring for decades across social, cultural, demographic, and economic landscapes, has long captured the attention of scholars and public policy makers alike. Over the past several decades here in Oregon, migration has undoubtedly shaped the state socially and culturally, but equally pronounced and perhaps more tangible have been the long-term challenges and prospects linked to the reciprocal relationship between migration and economics. Title: A Pivot Point? Economic Slow-Down Affects Oregon’s Migration Flow Author: Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2011 The combination of three components: fertility, mortality, and migration, collectively lead to population change. Fertility and mortality events in recent history, including escalated fertility levels associated with the ‘baby boom cohort’ and spikes in mortality linked to the Spanish Flu of 1918 for example, have produced demonstrative demographic effects. However, both the unpredictability and ability of migration to produce virtually immediate impacts, often enduring for decades across social, cultural, demographic, and economic landscapes, has long captured the attention of scholars and public policy makers alike. Over the past several decades here in Oregon, migration has undoubtedly shaped the state socially and culturally, but equally pronounced and perhaps more tangible have been the long-term challenges and prospects linked to the reciprocal relationship between migration and economics. Close

• 3. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Southern Metros

  In 2012-2014, the South recorded the largest gain of YCE net in-migration, among its large metros, of any region at 138,000. What’s more, the only metros to post NMQ values above 30 were both in the South—Houston ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Southern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In 2012-2014, the South recorded the largest gain of YCE net in-migration, among its large metros, of any region at 138,000. What’s more, the only metros to post NMQ values above 30 were both in the South—Houston (36.9 percent) followed by Austin (35 percent). While most large Southern metros posted robust gains in net in-migration of YCEs between the two periods, Louisville (-18.7 percent), Baltimore, (-9.4 percent), San Antonio (-8.2 percent), Dallas/Ft. Worth (-5.5 percent), and Tampa (-1.5 percent) all recorded NMQ declines in net in-migration of YCEs. Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Southern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In 2012-2014, the South recorded the largest gain of YCE net in-migration, among its large metros, of any region at 138,000. What’s more, the only metros to post NMQ values above 30 were both in the South—Houston (36.9 percent) followed by Austin (35 percent). While most large Southern metros posted robust gains in net in-migration of YCEs between the two periods, Louisville (-18.7 percent), Baltimore, (-9.4 percent), San Antonio (-8.2 percent), Dallas/Ft. Worth (-5.5 percent), and Tampa (-1.5 percent) all recorded NMQ declines in net in-migration of YCEs. Close

• 4. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Grant County’s total population has declined since 2000, losing an average of about 50 persons per year between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). With the exception of minimal population increase among three small ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Grant County’s total population has declined since 2000, losing an average of about 50 persons per year between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). With the exception of minimal population increase among three small UGBs, every sub-area recorded population loss during the 2000s. Prairie City and the area outside UGBs posted the largest losses, losing on average about 17 and 19 persons per year, respectively. Grant County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a consistent natural decrease as well as relatively steady net out-migration (Figure 12). The smaller number of births relative to deaths led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in nearly every year from 2000 to 2015. While net out-migration was common during the last decade (2000-2010), in recent years (2010-2015) net in-migration has occurred. Even so, natural decrease has persisted and generally exceeded net in-migration, leading to continued population decline. Grant County is expected to experience population decline over the 50-year forecast period. This population loss will likely occur at a relatively uniform rate among the county’s sub-areas, with losses occurring at an increasing rate as time progresses. For Grant County as a whole, increasing natural decrease and relatively steady net in-migration are expected to lead to population decline. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net in-migration is expected to persist throughout the entire forecast period, but will not fully offset the natural decrease, leading to population decline. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Grant County’s total population has declined since 2000, losing an average of about 50 persons per year between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). With the exception of minimal population increase among three small UGBs, every sub-area recorded population loss during the 2000s. Prairie City and the area outside UGBs posted the largest losses, losing on average about 17 and 19 persons per year, respectively. Grant County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a consistent natural decrease as well as relatively steady net out-migration (Figure 12). The smaller number of births relative to deaths led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in nearly every year from 2000 to 2015. While net out-migration was common during the last decade (2000-2010), in recent years (2010-2015) net in-migration has occurred. Even so, natural decrease has persisted and generally exceeded net in-migration, leading to continued population decline. Grant County is expected to experience population decline over the 50-year forecast period. This population loss will likely occur at a relatively uniform rate among the county’s sub-areas, with losses occurring at an increasing rate as time progresses. For Grant County as a whole, increasing natural decrease and relatively steady net in-migration are expected to lead to population decline. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net in-migration is expected to persist throughout the entire forecast period, but will not fully offset the natural decrease, leading to population decline. Close

• 5. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America - Migration Trends Across the 50 Largest U.S. Metros

  In this brief, we present U.S. Census Bureau data to compare recent migration trends for young and college-educated (YCE) individuals for the largest 50 U.S. metro areas in 2012-2014 relative to the pre-recession ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America - Migration Trends Across the 50 Largest U.S. Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In this brief, we present U.S. Census Bureau data to compare recent migration trends for young and college-educated (YCE) individuals for the largest 50 U.S. metro areas in 2012-2014 relative to the pre-recession (2005-2007) and Great Recession (2008-2010) periods. Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America - Migration Trends Across the 50 Largest U.S. Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In this brief, we present U.S. Census Bureau data to compare recent migration trends for young and college-educated (YCE) individuals for the largest 50 U.S. metro areas in 2012-2014 relative to the pre-recession (2005-2007) and Great Recession (2008-2010) periods. Close

• 6. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Western Metros

  In the West, Seattle recorded the largest NMQ gain of YCEs (31.6 percent), followed by San Francisco (28.5 percent), Portland (26.3 percent), and San Jose (26.1 percent). During the Great Recession, as ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Western Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the West, Seattle recorded the largest NMQ gain of YCEs (31.6 percent), followed by San Francisco (28.5 percent), Portland (26.3 percent), and San Jose (26.1 percent). During the Great Recession, as well as the post-recession recovery period, only four metros outpaced the West’s regional gain in YCE net-migration: 1) Phoenix, 2) Denver, 3) San Francisco, 4) San Jose Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Western Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the West, Seattle recorded the largest NMQ gain of YCEs (31.6 percent), followed by San Francisco (28.5 percent), Portland (26.3 percent), and San Jose (26.1 percent). During the Great Recession, as well as the post-recession recovery period, only four metros outpaced the West’s regional gain in YCE net-migration: 1) Phoenix, 2) Denver, 3) San Francisco, 4) San Jose Close

• 7. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Northeastern Metros

  In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Northeast’s largest metro areas attracted and retained roughly 31,000 YCE migrants. However, this represents 9,000 fewer migrants compared to the Great Recession ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Northeastern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Northeast’s largest metro areas attracted and retained roughly 31,000 YCE migrants. However, this represents 9,000 fewer migrants compared to the Great Recession period— the Northeast is the only region to post a decline in net in/migration of YCEs between 2008-2010 and 2012-2014. All Northeastern metros experienced a decline or a very marginal gain in NMQ values between the two periods, except for Philadelphia, which posted more than a 2,000 gain in net YCE in-migration. In the end however, Boston and Pittsburgh remain the region's two most productive cities for attracting retaining and retaining young, mobile talent. Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Northeastern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Northeast’s largest metro areas attracted and retained roughly 31,000 YCE migrants. However, this represents 9,000 fewer migrants compared to the Great Recession period— the Northeast is the only region to post a decline in net in/migration of YCEs between 2008-2010 and 2012-2014. All Northeastern metros experienced a decline or a very marginal gain in NMQ values between the two periods, except for Philadelphia, which posted more than a 2,000 gain in net YCE in-migration. In the end however, Boston and Pittsburgh remain the region's two most productive cities for attracting retaining and retaining young, mobile talent. Close

• 8. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Midwestern Metros

  In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Midwest’s largest metro areas attracted and retained almost 37,000 YCE migrants, which is almost double the number during the Great Recession period. Although ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Midwestern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Midwest’s largest metro areas attracted and retained almost 37,000 YCE migrants, which is almost double the number during the Great Recession period. Although the region’s largest city, Chicago, recorded the largest net in/migration of YCEs (11,033) in 2012-2014, Kansas City recorded the highest NMQ of YCEs (18.6 percent), followed by Columbus, OH (18.5 percent) and Detroit (16.4 percent). Detroit’s turnaround is particularly noteworthy; the Motor City metro posted the second highest change in NMQ values between the two periods (second only to Birmingham). Two metros reported a net out/migration of YCEs, one being Buffalo (-14.5 percent), and the other being Milwaukee (-7.0 percent). Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Midwestern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Midwest’s largest metro areas attracted and retained almost 37,000 YCE migrants, which is almost double the number during the Great Recession period. Although the region’s largest city, Chicago, recorded the largest net in/migration of YCEs (11,033) in 2012-2014, Kansas City recorded the highest NMQ of YCEs (18.6 percent), followed by Columbus, OH (18.5 percent) and Detroit (16.4 percent). Detroit’s turnaround is particularly noteworthy; the Motor City metro posted the second highest change in NMQ values between the two periods (second only to Birmingham). Two metros reported a net out/migration of YCEs, one being Buffalo (-14.5 percent), and the other being Milwaukee (-7.0 percent). Close

• 9. [Article] Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Pattern Recognition: Migration and the Identity of the Region

  This version of the Periodic Atlas investigates migration in Oregon and the Metroscape using recently available data. It maps not just how many people are in-migrating and out-migrating, but where they ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Pattern Recognition: Migration and the Identity of the Region Author: Straub, Alton Year: 2005 This version of the Periodic Atlas investigates migration in Oregon and the Metroscape using recently available data. It maps not just how many people are in-migrating and out-migrating, but where they come from and where they are going. This, of course, raises a fair question-does it really matter where new residents come from or where current residents go? Despite the fact that we are justifiably proud of our traditional freedom to move among states and communities seeking more opportunity and better lives, most states and communities have unique cultural icons (often stereotypical) with which they identify. If we sense that Oregon's culture is changing along with its population (as we know it has in the past), looking at its new residents would be a good place to begin understanding those changes. Title: Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Pattern Recognition: Migration and the Identity of the Region Author: Straub, Alton Year: 2005 This version of the Periodic Atlas investigates migration in Oregon and the Metroscape using recently available data. It maps not just how many people are in-migrating and out-migrating, but where they come from and where they are going. This, of course, raises a fair question-does it really matter where new residents come from or where current residents go? Despite the fact that we are justifiably proud of our traditional freedom to move among states and communities seeking more opportunity and better lives, most states and communities have unique cultural icons (often stereotypical) with which they identify. If we sense that Oregon's culture is changing along with its population (as we know it has in the past), looking at its new residents would be a good place to begin understanding those changes. Close

• 10. [Article] Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Pattern Recognition: Migration and the Identity of the Region

  A periodic atlas which investigates migration in Oregon and the Metroscape using recently available data.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Pattern Recognition: Migration and the Identity of the Region Author: Straub, Alton Year: 2005 A periodic atlas which investigates migration in Oregon and the Metroscape using recently available data. Title: Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Pattern Recognition: Migration and the Identity of the Region Author: Straub, Alton Year: 2005 A periodic atlas which investigates migration in Oregon and the Metroscape using recently available data. Close

• 11. [Article] Senior Shedding: Mortality and Migration of Seniors Create Vacancies for Gentrifying Neighborhoods

  Looks at how vacancies created by deaths and out-migration of seniors and baby boomers facilitates housing turnover or gentrification, referred to as Senior Shedding.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Senior Shedding: Mortality and Migration of Seniors Create Vacancies for Gentrifying Neighborhoods Author: Lycan, Robert, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 Looks at how vacancies created by deaths and out-migration of seniors and baby boomers facilitates housing turnover or gentrification, referred to as Senior Shedding. Title: Senior Shedding: Mortality and Migration of Seniors Create Vacancies for Gentrifying Neighborhoods Author: Lycan, Robert, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 Looks at how vacancies created by deaths and out-migration of seniors and baby boomers facilitates housing turnover or gentrification, referred to as Senior Shedding. Close

• 12. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase in population, growing by more than 100 persons between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Gilliam County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural decrease and periods of net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease in nearly every year from 2000 to 2010. While net in-migration fluctuated during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been increased stably during recent years, contributing to population increase since 2009. Total population in Gilliam County as a whole is expected to increase over the forecast period, with the majority of this growth occurring within Arlington UGB (Figure 1). Increasing net in-migration is expected to offset the growth in the natural decrease throughout the entire 50-year forecast period. An aging population in the near-term is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a steady number of births. During the final 31 years of the forecast period, the population is expected to shift toward younger ages leading to more births and a steady number of deaths. This combined with steady net in-migration is expected to lead to continued steady population growth. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase in population, growing by more than 100 persons between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Gilliam County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural decrease and periods of net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease in nearly every year from 2000 to 2010. While net in-migration fluctuated during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been increased stably during recent years, contributing to population increase since 2009. Total population in Gilliam County as a whole is expected to increase over the forecast period, with the majority of this growth occurring within Arlington UGB (Figure 1). Increasing net in-migration is expected to offset the growth in the natural decrease throughout the entire 50-year forecast period. An aging population in the near-term is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a steady number of births. During the final 31 years of the forecast period, the population is expected to shift toward younger ages leading to more births and a steady number of deaths. This combined with steady net in-migration is expected to lead to continued steady population growth. Close

• 13. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler County’s total population has declined slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of just above negative one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced some population growth during the 2000s. Fossil, the most populous UGB, experienced small growth and Spray posted the highest average annual growth rate at 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wheeler County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of an aging population. The aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages, has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration and natural decrease compounded to create a substantial population decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, migration into the county increased in the later part of the decade and helped to offset the natural decrease. Net out-migration was still substantial for populations between the ages of 20 and 29 years from 2000 to 2010, but there has been net in-migration for a slightly older population from 30 to 39 years of age. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it some slight population growth. Total population in Wheeler County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slightly slower pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The declining of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a steady natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 90 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by more than 300 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience similar rates of population decline during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler County’s total population has declined slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of just above negative one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced some population growth during the 2000s. Fossil, the most populous UGB, experienced small growth and Spray posted the highest average annual growth rate at 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wheeler County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of an aging population. The aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages, has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration and natural decrease compounded to create a substantial population decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, migration into the county increased in the later part of the decade and helped to offset the natural decrease. Net out-migration was still substantial for populations between the ages of 20 and 29 years from 2000 to 2010, but there has been net in-migration for a slightly older population from 30 to 39 years of age. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it some slight population growth. Total population in Wheeler County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slightly slower pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The declining of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a steady natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 90 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by more than 300 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience similar rates of population decline during the forecast period. Close

• 14. [Article] Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools

  The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, migration, and international migration have affected public school enrollments in Portland. This report reaches four main conclusions: * First and foremost, public school enrollments have declined in recent years primarily because there have been sizeable decreases in the number of students entering kindergarten and the early elementary school grades. Smaller numbers of entering students are, in turn, the result of substantial reductions in the number of births--reductions that began in 1991. Because there were fewer births in the early 1990s, fewer students enrolled in school in the late 1990s. The number of births declined in the 1980s primarily because there were decreases in the number of younger couples--not because there were decreases in the average number of births per couples in the 1980s. * The number of births has continued to decline in the 1990s. The lower number of births in the second half of the decade has not yet affected school enrollments. But they will add to declines in school enrollments in the future, starting after about 2002. Although there was net out-migration of school-age children, in the 1980s and 1990s, net out-migration of school-age children appears to have increased in the late 1990s, further reducing enrollments. * Increased international migration into the Portland metropolitan area has ameliorated the decline in enrollments by adding several thousand foreign-born students to the Portland Public Schools. Immigrant couples are contributing an increasing number of births to the population. Births to immigrants partially counterbalance fertility declines among native-born residents. * There is conflicting evidence from public, private, and home schooling data on changes in public school capture rates (the proportion of school age children enrolled in Portland Public Schools). Available data, however, suggest that changes in capture rates have not been a major determinant of public school enrollment trends. Title: Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, migration, and international migration have affected public school enrollments in Portland. This report reaches four main conclusions: * First and foremost, public school enrollments have declined in recent years primarily because there have been sizeable decreases in the number of students entering kindergarten and the early elementary school grades. Smaller numbers of entering students are, in turn, the result of substantial reductions in the number of births--reductions that began in 1991. Because there were fewer births in the early 1990s, fewer students enrolled in school in the late 1990s. The number of births declined in the 1980s primarily because there were decreases in the number of younger couples--not because there were decreases in the average number of births per couples in the 1980s. * The number of births has continued to decline in the 1990s. The lower number of births in the second half of the decade has not yet affected school enrollments. But they will add to declines in school enrollments in the future, starting after about 2002. Although there was net out-migration of school-age children, in the 1980s and 1990s, net out-migration of school-age children appears to have increased in the late 1990s, further reducing enrollments. * Increased international migration into the Portland metropolitan area has ameliorated the decline in enrollments by adding several thousand foreign-born students to the Portland Public Schools. Immigrant couples are contributing an increasing number of births to the population. Births to immigrants partially counterbalance fertility declines among native-born residents. * There is conflicting evidence from public, private, and home schooling data on changes in public school capture rates (the proportion of school age children enrolled in Portland Public Schools). Available data, however, suggest that changes in capture rates have not been a major determinant of public school enrollment trends. Close

• 15. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population growth during the 2000s. In spite of population increases in the two most populous UGBs, the area outside UGBs declined by nearly one percent per year between 2000 and 2010, losing nearly 200 persons and effectively driving countywide population decline. Even so, Wallowa County’s population has slightly increased in recent years, growing by roughly 100 people between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Wallowa County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a natural decrease and periods of net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net migration fluctuated dramatically during the last decade, net in-migration has been consistent during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wallowa County as a whole will likely increase in the near-term (2015 to 2035), driven by population growth in Enterprise, Joseph, and the area outside UGBs (Figure 1). However, in the remaining 31-year period, the county is forecast to see population decline. A rise in the magnitude of natural decrease and slow growth of net in-migration are expected to cause population growth to reach its peak in 2025, turning to population decline through the remainder of the forecast period. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net migration is expected to remain relatively steady throughout the forecast period, but will not offset natural decrease after 2025. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population growth during the 2000s. In spite of population increases in the two most populous UGBs, the area outside UGBs declined by nearly one percent per year between 2000 and 2010, losing nearly 200 persons and effectively driving countywide population decline. Even so, Wallowa County’s population has slightly increased in recent years, growing by roughly 100 people between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Wallowa County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a natural decrease and periods of net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net migration fluctuated dramatically during the last decade, net in-migration has been consistent during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wallowa County as a whole will likely increase in the near-term (2015 to 2035), driven by population growth in Enterprise, Joseph, and the area outside UGBs (Figure 1). However, in the remaining 31-year period, the county is forecast to see population decline. A rise in the magnitude of natural decrease and slow growth of net in-migration are expected to cause population growth to reach its peak in 2025, turning to population decline through the remainder of the forecast period. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net migration is expected to remain relatively steady throughout the forecast period, but will not offset natural decrease after 2025. Close

• 16. [Article] Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010

  For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Close

• 17. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas. Close

• 18. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  During the 2000s, Malheur County, as a whole, experienced population decline (Figure 1); however three of its sub-areas recorded a slight population increase. Adrian grew at an average annual rate of nearly ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 During the 2000s, Malheur County, as a whole, experienced population decline (Figure 1); however three of its sub-areas recorded a slight population increase. Adrian grew at an average annual rate of nearly two percent, while Ontario and the area outside UGBs saw more modest growth rates. Even so the population loss recorded by Vale, Nyssa, and Jordan Valley totaled nearly 600, leading the countywide population to decrease. Malheur County’s population decline in the 2000s was the combined result of a diminishing natural increase and periods of substantial net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. Net out-migration slowed toward the end of the last decade (2000-2010) combining with a relatively steady natural increase for moderate population increase in four out of the five years since 2010. Malheur County’s total population is forecast to grow by a little more than 400 persons (1.3 percent) from 2016 to 2066, which translates into a total countywide population of nearly 32,000 in 2066 (Figure 1). Population growth is forecast to be modest, becoming increasingly so as time progresses through the forecast period. Forecasting modest population growth is driven by both an aging population—contributing to a steady increase in deaths over the entire forecast period—as well as diminishing net out-migration. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 During the 2000s, Malheur County, as a whole, experienced population decline (Figure 1); however three of its sub-areas recorded a slight population increase. Adrian grew at an average annual rate of nearly two percent, while Ontario and the area outside UGBs saw more modest growth rates. Even so the population loss recorded by Vale, Nyssa, and Jordan Valley totaled nearly 600, leading the countywide population to decrease. Malheur County’s population decline in the 2000s was the combined result of a diminishing natural increase and periods of substantial net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. Net out-migration slowed toward the end of the last decade (2000-2010) combining with a relatively steady natural increase for moderate population increase in four out of the five years since 2010. Malheur County’s total population is forecast to grow by a little more than 400 persons (1.3 percent) from 2016 to 2066, which translates into a total countywide population of nearly 32,000 in 2066 (Figure 1). Population growth is forecast to be modest, becoming increasingly so as time progresses through the forecast period. Forecasting modest population growth is driven by both an aging population—contributing to a steady increase in deaths over the entire forecast period—as well as diminishing net out-migration. Close

• 19. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. Between 2010 and 2015 the county added on average about 20 persons per year (Figure 2). Baker County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of natural decrease and periods of substantial net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years (2010-2015), contributing to population increase. Total population in Baker County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the three sub-areas of Baker City, Richland, and Sumpter (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the last 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of growing natural decrease, which is expected to surpass net in-migration between 2030 and 2035. Overall the county is forecast to see nearly no net change in population over the entire 50-year period, beginning the forecast at around 16,400 in 2016 and ending at about 16,400 in 2066. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. Between 2010 and 2015 the county added on average about 20 persons per year (Figure 2). Baker County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of natural decrease and periods of substantial net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years (2010-2015), contributing to population increase. Total population in Baker County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the three sub-areas of Baker City, Richland, and Sumpter (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the last 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of growing natural decrease, which is expected to surpass net in-migration between 2030 and 2035. Overall the county is forecast to see nearly no net change in population over the entire 50-year period, beginning the forecast at around 16,400 in 2016 and ending at about 16,400 in 2066. Close

• 20. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink. Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink. Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close