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• 301. [Article] Cyclist Path Choices Through Shared Space Intersections in England

  In the last several years, there has been growing worldwide interest in making streets safer for all users--pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists. One approach, shared space, is a traffic calming technique ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Cyclist Path Choices Through Shared Space Intersections in England Author: Duncan, Allison Boyce Year: 2016 In the last several years, there has been growing worldwide interest in making streets safer for all users--pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists. One approach, shared space, is a traffic calming technique as well as urban design concept. This technique strives to fully integrate the roadway into the urban fabric by removing elements such as lane markings, curbs, and traffic signs. By removing these elements and creating a more plaza-like space, these sites become ambiguous and no user group as priority. The technique is relatively new, and the majority of existing research concerns pedestrians only. This mixed methods research focused on six intersections in England with the goal of understanding how bicycle riders perceive and travel through shared space intersections. Using video observations of the six sites in three cities, three shared and three control, this project analyzed the variations in the paths cyclists rode through the intersections. Data were collected on several variables related to both the cyclists and their interactions with the site itself such as helmet use and riding through crosswalks. Path analysis required the development a new evaluative variable in order to compare individual paths by how much deviation there was in each path ridden as compared to other cyclists. Site-specific surveys addressed the perceptions, bicycling experience, demographics, and path and route preferences by cyclists at both shared space and control intersections. The analysis indicated that cyclists rode similarly through both shared and control intersections, and that a large percentage of riders preferred to ride farther from motor vehicles when given the space to do so. This project offered further insight in how to best design shared space projects for nonmotorized users by looking at the spatial layout and the elements that most influenced a rider’s path choice. Results indicated that, in these cases, shared space was not the panacea for nonmotorized users as some literature suggests, but nonetheless appeared to be a valid form of traffic calming. This research offered further insight in how to best design shared space projects for nonmotorized users by looking at the spatial layout and the elements that most influenced a rider’s path choice. Title: Cyclist Path Choices Through Shared Space Intersections in England Author: Duncan, Allison Boyce Year: 2016 In the last several years, there has been growing worldwide interest in making streets safer for all users--pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists. One approach, shared space, is a traffic calming technique as well as urban design concept. This technique strives to fully integrate the roadway into the urban fabric by removing elements such as lane markings, curbs, and traffic signs. By removing these elements and creating a more plaza-like space, these sites become ambiguous and no user group as priority. The technique is relatively new, and the majority of existing research concerns pedestrians only. This mixed methods research focused on six intersections in England with the goal of understanding how bicycle riders perceive and travel through shared space intersections. Using video observations of the six sites in three cities, three shared and three control, this project analyzed the variations in the paths cyclists rode through the intersections. Data were collected on several variables related to both the cyclists and their interactions with the site itself such as helmet use and riding through crosswalks. Path analysis required the development a new evaluative variable in order to compare individual paths by how much deviation there was in each path ridden as compared to other cyclists. Site-specific surveys addressed the perceptions, bicycling experience, demographics, and path and route preferences by cyclists at both shared space and control intersections. The analysis indicated that cyclists rode similarly through both shared and control intersections, and that a large percentage of riders preferred to ride farther from motor vehicles when given the space to do so. This project offered further insight in how to best design shared space projects for nonmotorized users by looking at the spatial layout and the elements that most influenced a rider’s path choice. Results indicated that, in these cases, shared space was not the panacea for nonmotorized users as some literature suggests, but nonetheless appeared to be a valid form of traffic calming. This research offered further insight in how to best design shared space projects for nonmotorized users by looking at the spatial layout and the elements that most influenced a rider’s path choice. Close

• 302. [Article] Understanding Travel Modes to Non-work Destinations: Analysis of an Establishment Survey in Portland, Oregon

  During the past three decades, research in travel behavior has generally proceeded from broad-level, aggregate analysis of mode share--the proportions of walking, bicycling, transit, and vehicle travel ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Understanding Travel Modes to Non-work Destinations: Analysis of an Establishment Survey in Portland, Oregon Author: Muhs, Christopher D. Year: 2013 During the past three decades, research in travel behavior has generally proceeded from broad-level, aggregate analysis of mode share--the proportions of walking, bicycling, transit, and vehicle travel occurring in traffic analysis zones, census tracts, neighborhood, or other geographical units--to fine-grained, disaggregate analysis of mode choices and other trip-making attributes at the individual level. One potential issue is whether there are differences in the types of conclusions drawn from results of analyses performed at these different levels, as these results directly inform transportation planning and policy. This thesis aims in part to confirm whether the types of conclusions drawn from different levels of analysis are different, and to what extent. We also examine the relationships between the built environment and non-work travel choices from a unique analysis perspective. To do this, we use data from a 2011 travel intercept survey in the Portland, Oregon metropolitan region that was administered at convenience store, bar, and restaurant establishments. We estimate, for each of the travel modes--walk, bicycle, and automobile--two analysis models: one binary logistic regression model for mode choice of the individual traveler going to the establishment and one multiple linear regression model for mode share of shoppers at the establishment. Both models control for socio-demographics, trip characteristics, and built environment measures of travelers. For the binary logistic regression models, the data are disaggregate and particular to the individual traveler. These models also controlled for attitudes and preference towards travel modes. For the multiple regression models, data are aggregated to the establishment. The built environment data in each model represent characteristics of urban form surrounding the establishment. The data being oriented to the destination-end of the trip, as well as providing controls on land use make this analysis unique in the literature, as most non-work travel studies use residential-based data. Results suggest that analyses performed at the two different levels provide policy-relevant but somewhat different conclusions. In general, characteristics of the individual and the trip have stronger associations with mode choices of individuals than when aggregated to the establishment and analyzed against the mode share patterns of shoppers. Instead, mode shares have stronger relationships with characteristics of the built environment. The built environment surrounding the destination has a much more pronounced association with mode shares at the establishment than with mode choices of individuals. The results highlight the usefulness of simple aggregate analysis, when appropriate. We also find large differences between modes in which characteristics are important for mode choice and mode share. Walking and automobile models behave somewhat similarly but in opposite directions, while bicycling behaves quite differently. These differences suggest on their own a move away from non-motorized travel to be considered as equivalent or assessed as one item in research and in practice. Title: Understanding Travel Modes to Non-work Destinations: Analysis of an Establishment Survey in Portland, Oregon Author: Muhs, Christopher D. Year: 2013 During the past three decades, research in travel behavior has generally proceeded from broad-level, aggregate analysis of mode share--the proportions of walking, bicycling, transit, and vehicle travel occurring in traffic analysis zones, census tracts, neighborhood, or other geographical units--to fine-grained, disaggregate analysis of mode choices and other trip-making attributes at the individual level. One potential issue is whether there are differences in the types of conclusions drawn from results of analyses performed at these different levels, as these results directly inform transportation planning and policy. This thesis aims in part to confirm whether the types of conclusions drawn from different levels of analysis are different, and to what extent. We also examine the relationships between the built environment and non-work travel choices from a unique analysis perspective. To do this, we use data from a 2011 travel intercept survey in the Portland, Oregon metropolitan region that was administered at convenience store, bar, and restaurant establishments. We estimate, for each of the travel modes--walk, bicycle, and automobile--two analysis models: one binary logistic regression model for mode choice of the individual traveler going to the establishment and one multiple linear regression model for mode share of shoppers at the establishment. Both models control for socio-demographics, trip characteristics, and built environment measures of travelers. For the binary logistic regression models, the data are disaggregate and particular to the individual traveler. These models also controlled for attitudes and preference towards travel modes. For the multiple regression models, data are aggregated to the establishment. The built environment data in each model represent characteristics of urban form surrounding the establishment. The data being oriented to the destination-end of the trip, as well as providing controls on land use make this analysis unique in the literature, as most non-work travel studies use residential-based data. Results suggest that analyses performed at the two different levels provide policy-relevant but somewhat different conclusions. In general, characteristics of the individual and the trip have stronger associations with mode choices of individuals than when aggregated to the establishment and analyzed against the mode share patterns of shoppers. Instead, mode shares have stronger relationships with characteristics of the built environment. The built environment surrounding the destination has a much more pronounced association with mode shares at the establishment than with mode choices of individuals. The results highlight the usefulness of simple aggregate analysis, when appropriate. We also find large differences between modes in which characteristics are important for mode choice and mode share. Walking and automobile models behave somewhat similarly but in opposite directions, while bicycling behaves quite differently. These differences suggest on their own a move away from non-motorized travel to be considered as equivalent or assessed as one item in research and in practice. Close

• 303. [Article] Assessing Transit Fare Equity in Utah Using a Geographic Information System

  The goal of this study is to develop and apply a new method for assessing social equity impacts of distance-based public transit fares. Shifting to a distance-based fare structure can disproportionately ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing Transit Fare Equity in Utah Using a Geographic Information System Author: Farber, Steven, Batholomew, Keith, Li, Xiao, Paez, Antonio, Nurul Habib, Khandker M. Year: 2014 The goal of this study is to develop and apply a new method for assessing social equity impacts of distance-based public transit fares. Shifting to a distance-based fare structure can disproportionately favor or penalize different subgroups of a population based on variations in settlement patterns, travel needs, and most importantly, transit use. According to federal law, such disparities must be evaluated by the transit agency, but the area-based techniques identified by the Federal Transit Authority for assessing discrimination fail to account for disparities in distances travelled by transit users. This means that transit agencies currently lack guidelines for assessing the social equity impacts of replacing flat fare with distance-based fare structures. Our solution is to incorporate a joint ordinal-continuous model of trip generation and distance travelled into a GIS Decision Support System. The system enables a transit planner to visualize and compare estimated distances travelled and transit-cost maps for different population profiles and fare structures. We apply the method to a case study in the Wasatch Front, Utah, where the Utah Transit Authority is exploring a switch to a distance-based fare structure. The analysis reveals that overall distance-based fares benefit low-income, elderly, and non-white populations. However, the effect is geographically uneven, and may be negative for members of these groups living on the urban fringe. The research discusses a potential conflict between policies designed to promote equity and those intended to increase discretionary ridership. For example, increasing fares for longdistance discretionary riders travelling from suburban light-rail stations to the central business district may have a negative impact on ridership, despite being economically more efficient through cost-recapturing. At the same time, reducing fares for short-distance trips that are currently too expensive compared to private automobile travel may attract new riders. A full cost-benefit analysis sensitive to heterogeneous price elasticity is recommended for future research. It is also noted that the research findings are dependent on the current spatial distributions of population segments and travel patterns. The equity benefits of distance-based fares are primarily derived from residential clustering of low-income and minority groups in more compact urban areas near the center of the city. Demographic trends, such as inner-city gentrification and suburban aging-in-place, may impose increased travel demands on low income and elderly riders, nullifying future equity gains made by a transition to distance-based fares. Title: Assessing Transit Fare Equity in Utah Using a Geographic Information System Author: Farber, Steven, Batholomew, Keith, Li, Xiao, Paez, Antonio, Nurul Habib, Khandker M. Year: 2014 The goal of this study is to develop and apply a new method for assessing social equity impacts of distance-based public transit fares. Shifting to a distance-based fare structure can disproportionately favor or penalize different subgroups of a population based on variations in settlement patterns, travel needs, and most importantly, transit use. According to federal law, such disparities must be evaluated by the transit agency, but the area-based techniques identified by the Federal Transit Authority for assessing discrimination fail to account for disparities in distances travelled by transit users. This means that transit agencies currently lack guidelines for assessing the social equity impacts of replacing flat fare with distance-based fare structures. Our solution is to incorporate a joint ordinal-continuous model of trip generation and distance travelled into a GIS Decision Support System. The system enables a transit planner to visualize and compare estimated distances travelled and transit-cost maps for different population profiles and fare structures. We apply the method to a case study in the Wasatch Front, Utah, where the Utah Transit Authority is exploring a switch to a distance-based fare structure. The analysis reveals that overall distance-based fares benefit low-income, elderly, and non-white populations. However, the effect is geographically uneven, and may be negative for members of these groups living on the urban fringe. The research discusses a potential conflict between policies designed to promote equity and those intended to increase discretionary ridership. For example, increasing fares for longdistance discretionary riders travelling from suburban light-rail stations to the central business district may have a negative impact on ridership, despite being economically more efficient through cost-recapturing. At the same time, reducing fares for short-distance trips that are currently too expensive compared to private automobile travel may attract new riders. A full cost-benefit analysis sensitive to heterogeneous price elasticity is recommended for future research. It is also noted that the research findings are dependent on the current spatial distributions of population segments and travel patterns. The equity benefits of distance-based fares are primarily derived from residential clustering of low-income and minority groups in more compact urban areas near the center of the city. Demographic trends, such as inner-city gentrification and suburban aging-in-place, may impose increased travel demands on low income and elderly riders, nullifying future equity gains made by a transition to distance-based fares. Close

• 304. [Article] Affordable Housing Needs Study for the Portland Metropolitan Area Draft Final Report

  The purpose of this report is to respond to the recommendations of the Regional Housing Choice Task Force by providing information to guide housing choice policy for the Metro Council. In particular, the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Affordable Housing Needs Study for the Portland Metropolitan Area Draft Final Report Author: Hough, George C., Jr., Martin, Sheila A., Mildner, Gerard C., Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2007 The purpose of this report is to respond to the recommendations of the Regional Housing Choice Task Force by providing information to guide housing choice policy for the Metro Council. In particular, the objectives of this project were to: estimate current and future affordable housing need for the Metro region; describe the distribution of households by income, age, and size across the metro region; describe the tenure of these households and the type of housing they will choose; identify and describe those household types that are most likely to struggle to meet the cost of housing based on their income; and make recommendations for improving analysis of affordable housing need in the future. Our approach to this task was to use output from the Metroscope model, using the base case scenario, to forecast the housing consumption decisions of households from 2005 to 2035. We chose the Metroscope model after also considering the State of Oregon?s Housing/Land Needs model. We concluded from examining the assumptions and abilities of each model that Metroscope is better able to offer the Metro Council the insight into the housing market required to inform housing choice policy. The Metroscope model incorporates housing supply and demand for the entire four-county metropolitan region (Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Clark counties). The region comprises a single housing market; residents travel throughout the region to work, shop, and socialize. Thus, it makes little sense to examine any one county in isolation. While this report does not include the results for Clark County, its impact on demand and supply of housing in the rest of the region is taken into account in the Metroscope model and is reflected in the results presented here. Given the assumptions of the Metroscope model (described in Section 2), we address several questions, including: Where will household growth occur? What kinds of households will grow? What kinds of housing will these households live in? What percentage of their income will they pay for housing? What demographic groups are most cost-burdened and where do those households reside? This report offers a summary of the findings regarding each of these questions. Title: Affordable Housing Needs Study for the Portland Metropolitan Area Draft Final Report Author: Hough, George C., Jr., Martin, Sheila A., Mildner, Gerard C., Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2007 The purpose of this report is to respond to the recommendations of the Regional Housing Choice Task Force by providing information to guide housing choice policy for the Metro Council. In particular, the objectives of this project were to: estimate current and future affordable housing need for the Metro region; describe the distribution of households by income, age, and size across the metro region; describe the tenure of these households and the type of housing they will choose; identify and describe those household types that are most likely to struggle to meet the cost of housing based on their income; and make recommendations for improving analysis of affordable housing need in the future. Our approach to this task was to use output from the Metroscope model, using the base case scenario, to forecast the housing consumption decisions of households from 2005 to 2035. We chose the Metroscope model after also considering the State of Oregon?s Housing/Land Needs model. We concluded from examining the assumptions and abilities of each model that Metroscope is better able to offer the Metro Council the insight into the housing market required to inform housing choice policy. The Metroscope model incorporates housing supply and demand for the entire four-county metropolitan region (Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Clark counties). The region comprises a single housing market; residents travel throughout the region to work, shop, and socialize. Thus, it makes little sense to examine any one county in isolation. While this report does not include the results for Clark County, its impact on demand and supply of housing in the rest of the region is taken into account in the Metroscope model and is reflected in the results presented here. Given the assumptions of the Metroscope model (described in Section 2), we address several questions, including: Where will household growth occur? What kinds of households will grow? What kinds of housing will these households live in? What percentage of their income will they pay for housing? What demographic groups are most cost-burdened and where do those households reside? This report offers a summary of the findings regarding each of these questions. Close

• 305. [Article] Estimating Walking and Bicycling at the State Level

  Estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) drive policy and planning decisions for surface transportation. No similar metric is computed for cycling and walking. What approaches could be used to compute ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimating Walking and Bicycling at the State Level Author: Nordback, Krista, Sellinger, Mike, Phillips, Taylor Year: 2017 Estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) drive policy and planning decisions for surface transportation. No similar metric is computed for cycling and walking. What approaches could be used to compute such a metric on the state level? This report discusses three such approaches, identifies the advantages and disadvantages of each, and applies them to Washington State. The first approach employs travel survey data. The second approach is sample-based using pedestrian and bicycle count data. The third approach is an aggregate demand model approach using demographic data combined with count data. Due to data limitations, none of these methods could be properly implemented on the statewide level. Despite the data limits, the methods were implemented for one county (King County) in order to compare findings. The travel survey method estimated the lowest bicycle and pedestrian miles traveled (BMT and PMT), and the sample-based method estimated the highest. The travel survey method is useful for a statewide measure, but it does not provide the detail needed for facility-level estimates. For bicyclists, the sample-based method is appropriate if volumes are desired at the facility level. For pedestrians, the aggregate model might be more appropriate, because of the more dispersed nature of pedestrian travel. Each method has strengths and weaknesses, and each helps us understand bicycle and pedestrian travel in different ways. For this reason, the project team recommends improving both statewide travel survey data and pedestrian and cyclist traffic count data which feed these methods. Travel survey data should be collected statewide with oversampling for non-motorized travelers. Pedestrian and cyclist traffic counts should be expanded to include a continuous counting program in addition to the short-duration count program. After the continuous count program is in place, short-duration counts should be chosen using a stratified random sampling approach. For example, the sampling frame could consist of all road and path segments in the state divided by region (Coast Range, Puget Lowland, Cascades, Eastern Washington), by urbanity (rural, urban), by facility type (highways/arterials, local/collector roads, paths), and by whether the location is on a bridge or not. To increase sites sampled, the short-duration count program could also be rotated, with each location being counted every three years instead of every year. Better data will allow the state to quantify bicycling and walking at both the state level and facility level to inform decision-making, facility design and planning, and safety analysis. Title: Estimating Walking and Bicycling at the State Level Author: Nordback, Krista, Sellinger, Mike, Phillips, Taylor Year: 2017 Estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) drive policy and planning decisions for surface transportation. No similar metric is computed for cycling and walking. What approaches could be used to compute such a metric on the state level? This report discusses three such approaches, identifies the advantages and disadvantages of each, and applies them to Washington State. The first approach employs travel survey data. The second approach is sample-based using pedestrian and bicycle count data. The third approach is an aggregate demand model approach using demographic data combined with count data. Due to data limitations, none of these methods could be properly implemented on the statewide level. Despite the data limits, the methods were implemented for one county (King County) in order to compare findings. The travel survey method estimated the lowest bicycle and pedestrian miles traveled (BMT and PMT), and the sample-based method estimated the highest. The travel survey method is useful for a statewide measure, but it does not provide the detail needed for facility-level estimates. For bicyclists, the sample-based method is appropriate if volumes are desired at the facility level. For pedestrians, the aggregate model might be more appropriate, because of the more dispersed nature of pedestrian travel. Each method has strengths and weaknesses, and each helps us understand bicycle and pedestrian travel in different ways. For this reason, the project team recommends improving both statewide travel survey data and pedestrian and cyclist traffic count data which feed these methods. Travel survey data should be collected statewide with oversampling for non-motorized travelers. Pedestrian and cyclist traffic counts should be expanded to include a continuous counting program in addition to the short-duration count program. After the continuous count program is in place, short-duration counts should be chosen using a stratified random sampling approach. For example, the sampling frame could consist of all road and path segments in the state divided by region (Coast Range, Puget Lowland, Cascades, Eastern Washington), by urbanity (rural, urban), by facility type (highways/arterials, local/collector roads, paths), and by whether the location is on a bridge or not. To increase sites sampled, the short-duration count program could also be rotated, with each location being counted every three years instead of every year. Better data will allow the state to quantify bicycling and walking at both the state level and facility level to inform decision-making, facility design and planning, and safety analysis. Close

• 306. [Article] Do TODs Make a Difference?

  In this report, we present research that measures the outcomes of TOD areas in relation to their metropolitan area controls with respect to (1) jobs by sector; (2) housing choice for household types based ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Do TODs Make a Difference? Author: Nelson, Arthur C., Miller, Matt, Eskic, Dejan, Kim, Keuntae, Ewing, Reid, Liu, Jenny H., Berggren, Matt, Mumuni, Zakari Year: 2015 In this report, we present research that measures the outcomes of TOD areas in relation to their metropolitan area controls with respect to (1) jobs by sector; (2) housing choice for household types based on key demographic characteristics; (3) housing affordability based on transportation costs; and (4) job-worker balance as a measure of accessibility. Prior literature has not systematically evaluated TOD outcomes in these respects with respect to light rail transit (LRT), commuter rail transit (CRT), bus rapid transit (BRT), and streetcar transit (SCT) systems. Our analysis helps close some of these gaps. We apply our analysis to 23 fixed-guideway transit systems operating in 17 metropolitan areas in the South and West that have one or more of those systems. We find: (1) Most TOD areas gained jobs in the office, knowledge, education, health care and entertainment sectors, adding more than $100 billion in wages capitalized over time; (2) In assessing economic resilience associated with LRT systems, jobs continued to shift away from TOD areas before the Great Recession, the pace slowed during the recession but reversed during recovery, leading us to speculate that LRT TOD areas may have transformed metropolitan economies served by LRT systems; (3) Rents for offices, retail stores and apartments were higher when closer to SCT systems, had mixed results with respect LRT systems, but were mostly lower with respect to CRT systems (our BRT sample was too small to evaluate); (4) SCT systems performed best in terms of increasing their TOD-area shares of metropolitan population, households and householders by age, housing units, and renters with BRT systems performing less well while LRT and CRT systems experienced a much smaller shift in the share of growth; (5) Household transportation costs as a share of budgets increase with respect to distance from LRT transit stations to seven miles, suggesting the proximity to LRT stations reduces total household transportation costs; (6) Emerging trends that may favor higher-wage jobs locating in TOD areas over time than lower- or middle-wage jobs, perhaps because TOD areas attract more investment which requires more productive, higher-paid labor to justify the investment; and (7) The share of workers who commute 10 minutes or less to work increases nearly one-half of 1 percent for each half-mile their resident block group is to an LRT transit station, capping at a gain of 1.3 percent, which is not a trivial gain. Our report summarizes case studies of 23 transit systems and three journal articles based on our research. Title: Do TODs Make a Difference? Author: Nelson, Arthur C., Miller, Matt, Eskic, Dejan, Kim, Keuntae, Ewing, Reid, Liu, Jenny H., Berggren, Matt, Mumuni, Zakari Year: 2015 In this report, we present research that measures the outcomes of TOD areas in relation to their metropolitan area controls with respect to (1) jobs by sector; (2) housing choice for household types based on key demographic characteristics; (3) housing affordability based on transportation costs; and (4) job-worker balance as a measure of accessibility. Prior literature has not systematically evaluated TOD outcomes in these respects with respect to light rail transit (LRT), commuter rail transit (CRT), bus rapid transit (BRT), and streetcar transit (SCT) systems. Our analysis helps close some of these gaps. We apply our analysis to 23 fixed-guideway transit systems operating in 17 metropolitan areas in the South and West that have one or more of those systems. We find: (1) Most TOD areas gained jobs in the office, knowledge, education, health care and entertainment sectors, adding more than $100 billion in wages capitalized over time; (2) In assessing economic resilience associated with LRT systems, jobs continued to shift away from TOD areas before the Great Recession, the pace slowed during the recession but reversed during recovery, leading us to speculate that LRT TOD areas may have transformed metropolitan economies served by LRT systems; (3) Rents for offices, retail stores and apartments were higher when closer to SCT systems, had mixed results with respect LRT systems, but were mostly lower with respect to CRT systems (our BRT sample was too small to evaluate); (4) SCT systems performed best in terms of increasing their TOD-area shares of metropolitan population, households and householders by age, housing units, and renters with BRT systems performing less well while LRT and CRT systems experienced a much smaller shift in the share of growth; (5) Household transportation costs as a share of budgets increase with respect to distance from LRT transit stations to seven miles, suggesting the proximity to LRT stations reduces total household transportation costs; (6) Emerging trends that may favor higher-wage jobs locating in TOD areas over time than lower- or middle-wage jobs, perhaps because TOD areas attract more investment which requires more productive, higher-paid labor to justify the investment; and (7) The share of workers who commute 10 minutes or less to work increases nearly one-half of 1 percent for each half-mile their resident block group is to an LRT transit station, capping at a gain of 1.3 percent, which is not a trivial gain. Our report summarizes case studies of 23 transit systems and three journal articles based on our research. Close

• 307. [Article] Portland's Changing Landscape

  Occasional Papers in Geography Publication No. 4 What is the nature and character of Portland? What are the conditions, changes and developments that have made it what it is? How does Portland compare ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland's Changing Landscape Author: Price, Larry W., Johnson, Daniel M., Ashbaugh, James A., Dotterrer, Steve, Abbott, Carl, Poulsen, Thomas M., Lycan, Richard, Latz, Gil, Dueker, Kenneth, Edner, Sheldon, Rabiega, William A., Kale, Steven R., Corcoran, Patrick E., Vanselow, Glenn, Hamilton, F. E. Ian, Chapman, Nancy J., Starker, Joan Year: 1987 Occasional Papers in Geography Publication No. 4 What is the nature and character of Portland? What are the conditions, changes and developments that have made it what it is? How does Portland compare with other places? What makes it unique? These are some of the question pursued in this volume. This book contains thirteen chapters discussing various facets of Portland's environmental, economy, and character. It is an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of dynamics and change in the landscape. An overview is provided of Portland as a city and place to live, as well as its functional significance on a national and international basis. Two threads are woven through the tapestry of these essays. One is that Portland is a big city but with many attributes of a small town. The other is the closeness and accessibility of city and nature. The challenge is how to nurture and maintain both - to have our cake and eat it too. The evidence is clear that most American cities have not been able to achieve this. Only the future can tell how Portland will fare. The authors are all professional geographers or work in closely related fields. All have been involved with the Portland scene for a number of years and are uniquely qualified to write about these topics. While each approaches problems from his or her own perspective, the net result is a summing up, a taking stock of where we have been and where we are going. When considered as a whole the book should provide a better view than we have had of the nature and character of this special place. Title: Portland's Changing Landscape Author: Price, Larry W., Johnson, Daniel M., Ashbaugh, James A., Dotterrer, Steve, Abbott, Carl, Poulsen, Thomas M., Lycan, Richard, Latz, Gil, Dueker, Kenneth, Edner, Sheldon, Rabiega, William A., Kale, Steven R., Corcoran, Patrick E., Vanselow, Glenn, Hamilton, F. E. Ian, Chapman, Nancy J., Starker, Joan Year: 1987 Occasional Papers in Geography Publication No. 4 What is the nature and character of Portland? What are the conditions, changes and developments that have made it what it is? How does Portland compare with other places? What makes it unique? These are some of the question pursued in this volume. This book contains thirteen chapters discussing various facets of Portland's environmental, economy, and character. It is an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of dynamics and change in the landscape. An overview is provided of Portland as a city and place to live, as well as its functional significance on a national and international basis. Two threads are woven through the tapestry of these essays. One is that Portland is a big city but with many attributes of a small town. The other is the closeness and accessibility of city and nature. The challenge is how to nurture and maintain both - to have our cake and eat it too. The evidence is clear that most American cities have not been able to achieve this. Only the future can tell how Portland will fare. The authors are all professional geographers or work in closely related fields. All have been involved with the Portland scene for a number of years and are uniquely qualified to write about these topics. While each approaches problems from his or her own perspective, the net result is a summing up, a taking stock of where we have been and where we are going. When considered as a whole the book should provide a better view than we have had of the nature and character of this special place. Close

• 308. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population growth during the 2000s. In spite of population increases in the two most populous UGBs, the area outside UGBs declined by nearly one percent per year between 2000 and 2010, losing nearly 200 persons and effectively driving countywide population decline. Even so, Wallowa County’s population has slightly increased in recent years, growing by roughly 100 people between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Wallowa County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a natural decrease and periods of net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net migration fluctuated dramatically during the last decade, net in-migration has been consistent during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wallowa County as a whole will likely increase in the near-term (2015 to 2035), driven by population growth in Enterprise, Joseph, and the area outside UGBs (Figure 1). However, in the remaining 31-year period, the county is forecast to see population decline. A rise in the magnitude of natural decrease and slow growth of net in-migration are expected to cause population growth to reach its peak in 2025, turning to population decline through the remainder of the forecast period. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net migration is expected to remain relatively steady throughout the forecast period, but will not offset natural decrease after 2025. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population growth during the 2000s. In spite of population increases in the two most populous UGBs, the area outside UGBs declined by nearly one percent per year between 2000 and 2010, losing nearly 200 persons and effectively driving countywide population decline. Even so, Wallowa County’s population has slightly increased in recent years, growing by roughly 100 people between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Wallowa County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a natural decrease and periods of net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net migration fluctuated dramatically during the last decade, net in-migration has been consistent during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wallowa County as a whole will likely increase in the near-term (2015 to 2035), driven by population growth in Enterprise, Joseph, and the area outside UGBs (Figure 1). However, in the remaining 31-year period, the county is forecast to see population decline. A rise in the magnitude of natural decrease and slow growth of net in-migration are expected to cause population growth to reach its peak in 2025, turning to population decline through the remainder of the forecast period. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net migration is expected to remain relatively steady throughout the forecast period, but will not offset natural decrease after 2025. Close

• 309. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Sherman County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Sherman County’s total population has declined since 2000, at an average annual rate of nearly one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Wasco UGB, one of its sub-areas, experienced population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Sherman County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Sherman County’s total population has declined since 2000, at an average annual rate of nearly one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Wasco UGB, one of its sub-areas, experienced population growth during the 2000s. Wasco, the most populous UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of a little less than one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. This translated into a population increase of about 30 persons. Sherman County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of consistent net out-migration and periods of natural decreases (more deaths than births, Figure 12). The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, which combined with a relatively steady number of births has resulted in a natural decrease for nine out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015. While net out-migration and natural decrease were common during the last decade, in more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has occurred, bringing with it some population growth. Total population in Sherman County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the two sub-areas of Rufus and Wasco (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the remaining 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of a growing natural decrease, which is expected to exceed net in-migration around 2030. Sherman County’s total population is forecast to increase by about 50 persons over the next 19 years (2016-2035), but will likely see population decline of more than 80 persons during the last 31 years of the forecast period (2035-2066). Sub-areas are expected to generally follow their historical patterns of population increase or decrease over the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Sherman County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Sherman County’s total population has declined since 2000, at an average annual rate of nearly one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Wasco UGB, one of its sub-areas, experienced population growth during the 2000s. Wasco, the most populous UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of a little less than one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. This translated into a population increase of about 30 persons. Sherman County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of consistent net out-migration and periods of natural decreases (more deaths than births, Figure 12). The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, which combined with a relatively steady number of births has resulted in a natural decrease for nine out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015. While net out-migration and natural decrease were common during the last decade, in more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has occurred, bringing with it some population growth. Total population in Sherman County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the two sub-areas of Rufus and Wasco (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the remaining 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of a growing natural decrease, which is expected to exceed net in-migration around 2030. Sherman County’s total population is forecast to increase by about 50 persons over the next 19 years (2016-2035), but will likely see population decline of more than 80 persons during the last 31 years of the forecast period (2035-2066). Sub-areas are expected to generally follow their historical patterns of population increase or decrease over the forecast period. Close

• 310. [Article] Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010

  For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Close