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• 131. [Article] Achieving Sustainable, Compact Development in the Portland Metropolitan Area: New Tools and Approaches for Developing Centers and Corridors

  This report represents the work of a group of local public, private and institutional experts in real estate development and finance convened by the Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies at Portland ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Achieving Sustainable, Compact Development in the Portland Metropolitan Area: New Tools and Approaches for Developing Centers and Corridors Author: Kelley, Gil, Martin, Sheila A, Mylott, Elizabeth Year: 2009 This report represents the work of a group of local public, private and institutional experts in real estate development and finance convened by the Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies at Portland State University. This was done at the request of Metro, which wanted outside expert advice on ways to achieve more robust development of centers and corridors in the Portland metropolitan area, an important aspect of implementing the 2040 Growth Concept. Although the expert advisory group (EAG) enthusiastically took on this task, it wanted to first back up a step and deliberate over whether and to what extent center and corridor-based development was indicated by long term trends and what larger implications this might have for both the local real estate development industry and for regional governance. In other words, rather than to simply offer a list of new micro strategies, the EAG wanted to preface its advice with an opinion about the magnitude of shifts that may now be occurring in the marketplace and extend its advice into the realm of governance, particularly with regard to what they see as a more sustainable and effective framework for public-private-institutional collaboration for managing growth and building desirable communities. Title: Achieving Sustainable, Compact Development in the Portland Metropolitan Area: New Tools and Approaches for Developing Centers and Corridors Author: Kelley, Gil, Martin, Sheila A, Mylott, Elizabeth Year: 2009 This report represents the work of a group of local public, private and institutional experts in real estate development and finance convened by the Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies at Portland State University. This was done at the request of Metro, which wanted outside expert advice on ways to achieve more robust development of centers and corridors in the Portland metropolitan area, an important aspect of implementing the 2040 Growth Concept. Although the expert advisory group (EAG) enthusiastically took on this task, it wanted to first back up a step and deliberate over whether and to what extent center and corridor-based development was indicated by long term trends and what larger implications this might have for both the local real estate development industry and for regional governance. In other words, rather than to simply offer a list of new micro strategies, the EAG wanted to preface its advice with an opinion about the magnitude of shifts that may now be occurring in the marketplace and extend its advice into the realm of governance, particularly with regard to what they see as a more sustainable and effective framework for public-private-institutional collaboration for managing growth and building desirable communities. Close

• 132. [Article] Portland's Regional Economy: The Dynamics of Change

  As the Portland-Vancouver economy emerges from recession, regional residents must come to terms with the realities of a restructured economy. The familiar sectors and industries upon which we based success ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland's Regional Economy: The Dynamics of Change Author: Martin, Sheila A., Vander Vliet, Amy S. Year: 2005 As the Portland-Vancouver economy emerges from recession, regional residents must come to terms with the realities of a restructured economy. The familiar sectors and industries upon which we based success in the past likely will no longer sustain us, at least to the degree they once did. We are simultaneously witnessing the rebuilding of an economy while suffering the symptoms of radical change. The slowdown that began in the Portland region in the summer of 2000 was caused, in part, by cyclical downturns in several of the region's key industries. As the region continues to recover, it will most likely undergo a structural change: tomorrow's economy will look different than it did when the recession began. This paper examines that change from three perspectives. First, we consider how the industrial mix in the Portland region has changed and how it relates to national trends in industrial restructuring. Second, we describe expected changes in the occupational mix of the Portland region's workforce. Finally, we take a closer look at several companies that have made significant changes in their business models within the last few years to adjust to market or technological changes. We conclude with several observations about the inevitability of change and the need for resiliency. Title: Portland's Regional Economy: The Dynamics of Change Author: Martin, Sheila A., Vander Vliet, Amy S. Year: 2005 As the Portland-Vancouver economy emerges from recession, regional residents must come to terms with the realities of a restructured economy. The familiar sectors and industries upon which we based success in the past likely will no longer sustain us, at least to the degree they once did. We are simultaneously witnessing the rebuilding of an economy while suffering the symptoms of radical change. The slowdown that began in the Portland region in the summer of 2000 was caused, in part, by cyclical downturns in several of the region's key industries. As the region continues to recover, it will most likely undergo a structural change: tomorrow's economy will look different than it did when the recession began. This paper examines that change from three perspectives. First, we consider how the industrial mix in the Portland region has changed and how it relates to national trends in industrial restructuring. Second, we describe expected changes in the occupational mix of the Portland region's workforce. Finally, we take a closer look at several companies that have made significant changes in their business models within the last few years to adjust to market or technological changes. We conclude with several observations about the inevitability of change and the need for resiliency. Close

• 133. [Article] Traditional and Nontraditional Data as Indicators of Economic Activity in Rural Communities

  The objective of this study was twofold: (1) to identify nontraditional sources of data that can be used to monitor economic activity in rural areas, and (2) to test the relationship between such data ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Traditional and Nontraditional Data as Indicators of Economic Activity in Rural Communities Author: McHugh, Richard, Cooper, Ronald, Martin, Sheila A., Otto, Daniel, Johnson, Stanley R. Year: 1990 The objective of this study was twofold: (1) to identify nontraditional sources of data that can be used to monitor economic activity in rural areas, and (2) to test the relationship between such data and trends in traditional measures, such as income and employment. The need for alternative sources of data arises primarily out of the inconsistent quality and availability of traditional economic data at the subs tate level. New sources of data can help reduce this metro-rural data gap and provide a fuller picture of the diverse experience and structure of subs tate economies. Two sources of nontraditional data were explored: state government administrative records, and data from local private and quasi-private companies, such as utilities and banks. In particular, banking data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, phone connection data from Northwest Bell (U.S. West), and food stamp program data were used. The data series consisted of county-level data for Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. These data were statistically compared to employment growth levels in each county. Banking data (reflecting bank Willingness and ability to lend), phone data (reflecting new household and business formations), and food stamp participation correlated significantly (though weakly) with growth. The weak correlations are expected because the nontraditional data series are generally more volatile, or erratic, than employment data series. Composite indexes were constructed from the data and correlated with the employment data series. The results showed improved correlations and suggest that such indexes may be useful as leading indicators of economic activity. Overall, the results show that there is considerable potential in the development of economic indicators from nontraditional data. Title: Traditional and Nontraditional Data as Indicators of Economic Activity in Rural Communities Author: McHugh, Richard, Cooper, Ronald, Martin, Sheila A., Otto, Daniel, Johnson, Stanley R. Year: 1990 The objective of this study was twofold: (1) to identify nontraditional sources of data that can be used to monitor economic activity in rural areas, and (2) to test the relationship between such data and trends in traditional measures, such as income and employment. The need for alternative sources of data arises primarily out of the inconsistent quality and availability of traditional economic data at the subs tate level. New sources of data can help reduce this metro-rural data gap and provide a fuller picture of the diverse experience and structure of subs tate economies. Two sources of nontraditional data were explored: state government administrative records, and data from local private and quasi-private companies, such as utilities and banks. In particular, banking data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, phone connection data from Northwest Bell (U.S. West), and food stamp program data were used. The data series consisted of county-level data for Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. These data were statistically compared to employment growth levels in each county. Banking data (reflecting bank Willingness and ability to lend), phone data (reflecting new household and business formations), and food stamp participation correlated significantly (though weakly) with growth. The weak correlations are expected because the nontraditional data series are generally more volatile, or erratic, than employment data series. Composite indexes were constructed from the data and correlated with the employment data series. The results showed improved correlations and suggest that such indexes may be useful as leading indicators of economic activity. Overall, the results show that there is considerable potential in the development of economic indicators from nontraditional data. Close

• 134. [Article] Land Use Innovation: Experiences in the Adoption of Land Use Policies to Promote Active Living

  Obesity continues to be a major public health problem in the United States. As of 2007, 28.8% of adolescents were either overweight or obese. The rise in obesity may, in part, be attributable to declines ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Land Use Innovation: Experiences in the Adoption of Land Use Policies to Promote Active Living Author: Dill, Jennifer, Howe, Deborah A. Year: 2010 Obesity continues to be a major public health problem in the United States. As of 2007, 28.8% of adolescents were either overweight or obese. The rise in obesity may, in part, be attributable to declines in physical activity (PA) levels. In 2007, only 34.7% of adolescents met the national PA guidelines. Since PA levels decrease between childhood and adolescence, the middle school transition is a particularly vulnerable period that warrants special attention. In 2003, Somerville, Massachusetts organized an Active Living by Design (ALbD) partnership to promote community- wide active living through promotion activities (maps), policy changes, programs to engage immigrant communities, and physical changes to the environment (bike lines), and data gathering to evaluate these activities (student height, weight and fitness measurements). The partnership collaborated with other community initiatives to maximize the collective impact for health promotion. This study evaluates PA among a diverse population of middle school students (6th-8th grades) in Somerville and a neighboring comparison community concurrent with Somerville?s ALbD promotion efforts. Specifically, we will 1) document Somerville PA trends over time; 2) examine between-city differences in meeting PA recommendations; 3) explore the relationship(s) of utilization of recreational space and social support on PA; and 4) discuss the policy implications of our findings. Title: Land Use Innovation: Experiences in the Adoption of Land Use Policies to Promote Active Living Author: Dill, Jennifer, Howe, Deborah A. Year: 2010 Obesity continues to be a major public health problem in the United States. As of 2007, 28.8% of adolescents were either overweight or obese. The rise in obesity may, in part, be attributable to declines in physical activity (PA) levels. In 2007, only 34.7% of adolescents met the national PA guidelines. Since PA levels decrease between childhood and adolescence, the middle school transition is a particularly vulnerable period that warrants special attention. In 2003, Somerville, Massachusetts organized an Active Living by Design (ALbD) partnership to promote community- wide active living through promotion activities (maps), policy changes, programs to engage immigrant communities, and physical changes to the environment (bike lines), and data gathering to evaluate these activities (student height, weight and fitness measurements). The partnership collaborated with other community initiatives to maximize the collective impact for health promotion. This study evaluates PA among a diverse population of middle school students (6th-8th grades) in Somerville and a neighboring comparison community concurrent with Somerville?s ALbD promotion efforts. Specifically, we will 1) document Somerville PA trends over time; 2) examine between-city differences in meeting PA recommendations; 3) explore the relationship(s) of utilization of recreational space and social support on PA; and 4) discuss the policy implications of our findings. Close

• 135. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District 10J: Enrollment Forecasts for Elementary and Middle Schools and School Attendance Areas, 2006 to 2015

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District (“District”). It provides annual ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J: Enrollment Forecasts for Elementary and Middle Schools and School Attendance Areas, 2006 to 2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Radin, Kenneth Year: 2006 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District (“District”). It provides annual enrollment projections by grade for the District's eleven elementary and five middle school attendance areas from 2006 to 2015. It also provides annual enrollment projections by grade for elementary and middle schools. The projections correspond to the medium growth District-wide scenario developed by PRC in the 2004 study. The report begins with an overview of recent population and housing trends in the District's elementary and middle school attendance areas as they relate to changes in school enrollment. Next, results of annual enrollment projections for the District's eleven elementary and five middle school attendance areas from 2006 to 2015 are presented. The following section introduces annual enrollment projections for elementary and middle schools. A section discussing the methodology and assumptions used to develop the projections follows. Finally, conclusions are drawn and recommendations are offered, followed by a list of references used in the study. Detailed tables and figures showing projected grade-level enrollment by school attendance area and by school, along with other relevant information, are provided in the Appendix. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J: Enrollment Forecasts for Elementary and Middle Schools and School Attendance Areas, 2006 to 2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Radin, Kenneth Year: 2006 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District (“District”). It provides annual enrollment projections by grade for the District's eleven elementary and five middle school attendance areas from 2006 to 2015. It also provides annual enrollment projections by grade for elementary and middle schools. The projections correspond to the medium growth District-wide scenario developed by PRC in the 2004 study. The report begins with an overview of recent population and housing trends in the District's elementary and middle school attendance areas as they relate to changes in school enrollment. Next, results of annual enrollment projections for the District's eleven elementary and five middle school attendance areas from 2006 to 2015 are presented. The following section introduces annual enrollment projections for elementary and middle schools. A section discussing the methodology and assumptions used to develop the projections follows. Finally, conclusions are drawn and recommendations are offered, followed by a list of references used in the study. Detailed tables and figures showing projected grade-level enrollment by school attendance area and by school, along with other relevant information, are provided in the Appendix. Close

• 136. [Article] Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2015-16

  The Hillsboro School District (HSD) has experienced enrollment growth throughout the 1990s and 2000s. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2015-16 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Hillsboro School District (HSD) has experienced enrollment growth throughout the 1990s and 2000s. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that HSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next ten years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with population dynamics and housing development. Population and housing are closely related to employment levels. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to continue to increase at all grade levels. Washington County currently has the lowest unemployment rate in the state, and employment in the region is forecast to grow by over 16 percent in a ten year period. The county’s population is forecast to grow by 22 percent. Most significantly for the area within the HSD boundaries, there are about 3,500 housing units in new single family subdivisions and multi-family housing developments currently under construction, recently approved, or awaiting approval.4 This development has the potential to increase the District’s housing stock by eight percent within the next three years. Title: Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2015-16 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Hillsboro School District (HSD) has experienced enrollment growth throughout the 1990s and 2000s. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that HSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next ten years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with population dynamics and housing development. Population and housing are closely related to employment levels. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to continue to increase at all grade levels. Washington County currently has the lowest unemployment rate in the state, and employment in the region is forecast to grow by over 16 percent in a ten year period. The county’s population is forecast to grow by 22 percent. Most significantly for the area within the HSD boundaries, there are about 3,500 housing units in new single family subdivisions and multi-family housing developments currently under construction, recently approved, or awaiting approval.4 This development has the potential to increase the District’s housing stock by eight percent within the next three years. Close

• 137. [Article] Three Rivers School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17

  The area served by the Three Rivers School District (TRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment in 2006-07 is 17 percent lower than its ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Three Rivers School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The area served by the Three Rivers School District (TRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment in 2006-07 is 17 percent lower than its 1995-96 peak. Total K-12 enrollment has fallen in each of the past 11 years and is now lower than in any of the past 30 years. Losses have been greatest in the elementary grades (K-5), which enroll 27 percent fewer students than in 1996-97. The middle grades (6-8) have lost 20 percent in enrollment during the same period, while the high school grades (9-12) have lost only three percent. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that overall TRSD enrollment will continue to decrease during the next five years, until 2011-12, mostly due to the current smaller elementary and middle school classes moving up to the high school level. Although elementary enrollment is expected to “bottom out” within the next two to four years and begin to grow slightly, the offsetting effect of smaller high school enrollment means that overall K-12 enrollment will be stable at best during the 2011-12 to 2016-17 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. As employment, population, and housing growth in the region continues, the enrollment declines should slow, and overall enrollment will stabilize within the 5,000 to 5,100 student range over a period of several years, according to this forecast. Title: Three Rivers School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The area served by the Three Rivers School District (TRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment in 2006-07 is 17 percent lower than its 1995-96 peak. Total K-12 enrollment has fallen in each of the past 11 years and is now lower than in any of the past 30 years. Losses have been greatest in the elementary grades (K-5), which enroll 27 percent fewer students than in 1996-97. The middle grades (6-8) have lost 20 percent in enrollment during the same period, while the high school grades (9-12) have lost only three percent. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that overall TRSD enrollment will continue to decrease during the next five years, until 2011-12, mostly due to the current smaller elementary and middle school classes moving up to the high school level. Although elementary enrollment is expected to “bottom out” within the next two to four years and begin to grow slightly, the offsetting effect of smaller high school enrollment means that overall K-12 enrollment will be stable at best during the 2011-12 to 2016-17 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. As employment, population, and housing growth in the region continues, the enrollment declines should slow, and overall enrollment will stabilize within the 5,000 to 5,100 student range over a period of several years, according to this forecast. Close

• 138. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2007-08 to 2011-12

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,300 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 167 students (1.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the elementary grades (K-5), which ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,300 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 167 students (1.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the elementary grades (K-5), which grew by 195 students (3.6 percent) between Fall 2005 and Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Recent subdivision approvals will allow single family home construction to continue at its current pace for the next two to three years, but no new multiple family rental developments have been approved in the past two years. In some parts of the District, a dwindling supply of available residential land has already caused housing growth to slow, but growth in other areas has the potential to generate enrollment growth throughout the next five years. Also, the growing Hispanic population in the District compensates for the graduation of the "echo boom" enrollment bulge currently enrolled in high school grades. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,300 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 167 students (1.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the elementary grades (K-5), which grew by 195 students (3.6 percent) between Fall 2005 and Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Recent subdivision approvals will allow single family home construction to continue at its current pace for the next two to three years, but no new multiple family rental developments have been approved in the past two years. In some parts of the District, a dwindling supply of available residential land has already caused housing growth to slow, but growth in other areas has the potential to generate enrollment growth throughout the next five years. Also, the growing Hispanic population in the District compensates for the graduation of the "echo boom" enrollment bulge currently enrolled in high school grades. Close

• 139. [Article] Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District

  This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Ramey, Renee Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public School District (GAPSD). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. For the district-wide forecast, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts were prepared for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which extends similar recent housing and population growth trends throughout the forecast period; (b) lower growth, assuming that population and housing growth rates in the district will noticeably decline thereby influencing a decrease in enrollments; and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average population, housing, and enrollment growth rates than expected. Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Ramey, Renee Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public School District (GAPSD). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. For the district-wide forecast, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts were prepared for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which extends similar recent housing and population growth trends throughout the forecast period; (b) lower growth, assuming that population and housing growth rates in the district will noticeably decline thereby influencing a decrease in enrollments; and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average population, housing, and enrollment growth rates than expected. Close

• 140. [Article] Enrollment Forecast (2004-2010) for Lake Oswego School District

  This report, prepared by the Population Research Center provides a medium-range school Enrollment Forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lake Oswego School District (LOSD) ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast (2004-2010) for Lake Oswego School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Chen, Chen Year: 2004 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center provides a medium-range school Enrollment Forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lake Oswego School District (LOSD) and for its nine elementary schools, two junior high schools, and two high schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the District’s enrollment between 2004 and 2010 and examines elementary attendance areas within the District. The most likely scenario indicates that there will be a slight decrease in enrollments between 2003 and 2010. For the district-wide forecasting, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts are made for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which curbs recent trends of declining housing and population growth rates, (b) lower growth, assuming that growth rates in the district will continue to decrease, and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average growth rates closer to those of the mid 1990s. Title: Enrollment Forecast (2004-2010) for Lake Oswego School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Chen, Chen Year: 2004 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center provides a medium-range school Enrollment Forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lake Oswego School District (LOSD) and for its nine elementary schools, two junior high schools, and two high schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the District’s enrollment between 2004 and 2010 and examines elementary attendance areas within the District. The most likely scenario indicates that there will be a slight decrease in enrollments between 2003 and 2010. For the district-wide forecasting, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts are made for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which curbs recent trends of declining housing and population growth rates, (b) lower growth, assuming that growth rates in the district will continue to decrease, and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average growth rates closer to those of the mid 1990s. Close