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• 11. [Article] Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010

  For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Close

• 12. [Article] Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Seeing the Past in the Present - A Snapshot of the Relationship between Urban Growth and Transportation

  With this edition of the periodic atlas, we explore the waves of growth and changes in urban form that have occurred over the last century in Metro's tri-county region using historic maps and the year-built ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Seeing the Past in the Present - A Snapshot of the Relationship between Urban Growth and Transportation Author: Merrick, Meg Year: 2011 With this edition of the periodic atlas, we explore the waves of growth and changes in urban form that have occurred over the last century in Metro's tri-county region using historic maps and the year-built information provided by Metro's Regional Land Information System (RLIS) for tax lots. Title: Periodic Atlas of the Metroscape: Seeing the Past in the Present - A Snapshot of the Relationship between Urban Growth and Transportation Author: Merrick, Meg Year: 2011 With this edition of the periodic atlas, we explore the waves of growth and changes in urban form that have occurred over the last century in Metro's tri-county region using historic maps and the year-built information provided by Metro's Regional Land Information System (RLIS) for tax lots. Close

• 13. [Article] 2000 Oregon Population Report

  This report presents the population estimates for Oregon and its counties and incorporated cities for July 1, 2000, based on the April 1, 2000 census information. The ten tables in this report show current ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: 2000 Oregon Population Report Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Cai, Qian, Edmonston, Barry, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2001 This report presents the population estimates for Oregon and its counties and incorporated cities for July 1, 2000, based on the April 1, 2000 census information. The ten tables in this report show current 2000 population estimates as well as historical data. Supplements to the 2000 Population Report are included. Title: 2000 Oregon Population Report Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Cai, Qian, Edmonston, Barry, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2001 This report presents the population estimates for Oregon and its counties and incorporated cities for July 1, 2000, based on the April 1, 2000 census information. The ten tables in this report show current 2000 population estimates as well as historical data. Supplements to the 2000 Population Report are included. Close

• 14. [Article] 2009 Oregon Population Report

  This report contains the annual population estimates for Oregon, and its counties, incorporated cities, and unincorporated areas for July 1, 2009. Included in ten tables are the estimates summarized by ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: 2009 Oregon Population Report Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa, Crain, Julia Year: 2010 This report contains the annual population estimates for Oregon, and its counties, incorporated cities, and unincorporated areas for July 1, 2009. Included in ten tables are the estimates summarized by unincorporated and incorporated areas at the state level, as well as metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan areas. Some tables include historical estimates and Census populations. Title: 2009 Oregon Population Report Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa, Crain, Julia Year: 2010 This report contains the annual population estimates for Oregon, and its counties, incorporated cities, and unincorporated areas for July 1, 2009. Included in ten tables are the estimates summarized by unincorporated and incorporated areas at the state level, as well as metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan areas. Some tables include historical estimates and Census populations. Close

• 15. [Article] Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Marion County are presented in this report for all cities in the County. Title: Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Marion County are presented in this report for all cities in the County. Close

• 16. [Article] New FHWA VMT Forecasts Implications for Local Planning

  A summary of FHWA’s new national traffic trends assessment will be presented, including discussion of varied factors influencing forward-thinking forecasts. Examples of Oregon statewide vehicle miles travelled ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: New FHWA VMT Forecasts Implications for Local Planning Author: Mortensen, Andrew Year: 2015 A summary of FHWA’s new national traffic trends assessment will be presented, including discussion of varied factors influencing forward-thinking forecasts. Examples of Oregon statewide vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and historic traffic trends from ATR stations in the Portland urban region and greater Willamette Valley will be highlighted. VMT, population and income data will be noted with implications on local transportation planning. Title: New FHWA VMT Forecasts Implications for Local Planning Author: Mortensen, Andrew Year: 2015 A summary of FHWA’s new national traffic trends assessment will be presented, including discussion of varied factors influencing forward-thinking forecasts. Examples of Oregon statewide vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and historic traffic trends from ATR stations in the Portland urban region and greater Willamette Valley will be highlighted. VMT, population and income data will be noted with implications on local transportation planning. Close

• 17. [Article] Population Forecast for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008-2035

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Lane County and produce population forecasts at the county and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecast for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008-2035 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Hough, George C., Jr., Ru, Danan, Radin, Kenneth, Gilbert, Mark Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Lane County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2008 to 2035 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Lane County are presented in this report. Title: Population Forecast for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008-2035 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Hough, George C., Jr., Ru, Danan, Radin, Kenneth, Gilbert, Mark Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Lane County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2008 to 2035 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Lane County are presented in this report. Close

• 18. [Article] Population Forecast for Yamhill County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2011-2035

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Yamhill County and produce population forecasts at the county and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecast for Yamhill County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2011-2035 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Siu, Vivian, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Yamhill County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2035 in 5-year intervals and for years 2012 and 2032. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Yamhill County are presented in this report. Sub-county populations and forecasts in this study represent the area within each city's urban growth boundary with the exception of the non-UGB county unincorporated area and the Polk County portion of Willamina. Title: Population Forecast for Yamhill County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2011-2035 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Siu, Vivian, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Yamhill County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2035 in 5-year intervals and for years 2012 and 2032. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Yamhill County are presented in this report. Sub-county populations and forecasts in this study represent the area within each city's urban growth boundary with the exception of the non-UGB county unincorporated area and the Polk County portion of Willamina. Close

• 19. [Article] 2013 Annual Population Report Tables (April 15, 2014)

  This item contains Oregon population tables. Prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, April 15, 2014. The tables in the tabs in this workbook hold the 2013 population estimates ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: 2013 Annual Population Report Tables (April 15, 2014) Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2014 This item contains Oregon population tables. Prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, April 15, 2014. The tables in the tabs in this workbook hold the 2013 population estimates produced by the Population Research Center, Portland State University. The July 1 estimates of total population for counties and cities and towns were certified December 15, 2013. Note that the July 1, 2013 population estimate for Lincoln City was revised and certified to be retroactive to December 31, 2013. Some tables include the U.S. Census Bureau's decennial Census counts and historical population estimates produced by our Center, and other tables include calculations of change since Census 2010. There are footnotes that accompany Tables 1 through 7. Title: 2013 Annual Population Report Tables (April 15, 2014) Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2014 This item contains Oregon population tables. Prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, April 15, 2014. The tables in the tabs in this workbook hold the 2013 population estimates produced by the Population Research Center, Portland State University. The July 1 estimates of total population for counties and cities and towns were certified December 15, 2013. Note that the July 1, 2013 population estimate for Lincoln City was revised and certified to be retroactive to December 31, 2013. Some tables include the U.S. Census Bureau's decennial Census counts and historical population estimates produced by our Center, and other tables include calculations of change since Census 2010. There are footnotes that accompany Tables 1 through 7. Close

• 20. [Article] Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts

  This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Close