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• 21. [Article] Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Development on Water Resources in the Tualatin River Basin

  Potential impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Pacific Northwest of the United States include earlier peak runoff, reduced summer flows, and increased winter flooding. An increase in ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Development on Water Resources in the Tualatin River Basin Author: Praskievicz, Sarah Year: 2009 Potential impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Pacific Northwest of the United States include earlier peak runoff, reduced summer flows, and increased winter flooding. An increase in impervious surfaces, accompanied by urban development, is known to decrease infiltration and increase surface runoff. Alterations of flow amount and pathways can alter water quality through dilution or flushing effects. I used the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) modeling system to investigate the relative importance of future climate change and land use change in determining the quantity and quality of freshwater resources in north western Oregon's Tualatin River Basin. The basin was chosen for this study because it is rapidly urbanizing and representative of other low-elevation basins in the region. BASINS models were calibrated and validated using historic flow and water quality data from 1991 to 2006. The goodness-of-fit for the calibrated hydrology, suspended sediment, and orthophosphate models was high, with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.72 to 0.93 in the calibration period. The calibrated models were run under a range of eight downscaled climate change, two regional land use change, and four combined scenarios. Results included average increases in winter flows of ten percent, decreases in summer flows of thirty-seven percent, and increases in fifth percentile flows of up to eighty percent as a result of climate change in the Tualatin River Basin. For land use change, the results included an increase in annual flows of twenty-one percent for the development-oriented scenario and a decrease of sixteen percent for the conservation-oriented scenario, with amplified changes at the sub-basin scale, including more than doubled winter flow. For combined scenarios of climate change and urban development, there is a projected increase in winter flows of up to seventy-one percent and decrease in summer flows of up to forty-eight percent. Changes in suspended sediment and orthophosphate loading broadly tracked hydrological changes, with winter increases and summer decreases. The results are relevant to regional planners interested in the long-term response of water resources to climate change and land use change at the basin scale. Title: Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Development on Water Resources in the Tualatin River Basin Author: Praskievicz, Sarah Year: 2009 Potential impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Pacific Northwest of the United States include earlier peak runoff, reduced summer flows, and increased winter flooding. An increase in impervious surfaces, accompanied by urban development, is known to decrease infiltration and increase surface runoff. Alterations of flow amount and pathways can alter water quality through dilution or flushing effects. I used the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) modeling system to investigate the relative importance of future climate change and land use change in determining the quantity and quality of freshwater resources in north western Oregon's Tualatin River Basin. The basin was chosen for this study because it is rapidly urbanizing and representative of other low-elevation basins in the region. BASINS models were calibrated and validated using historic flow and water quality data from 1991 to 2006. The goodness-of-fit for the calibrated hydrology, suspended sediment, and orthophosphate models was high, with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.72 to 0.93 in the calibration period. The calibrated models were run under a range of eight downscaled climate change, two regional land use change, and four combined scenarios. Results included average increases in winter flows of ten percent, decreases in summer flows of thirty-seven percent, and increases in fifth percentile flows of up to eighty percent as a result of climate change in the Tualatin River Basin. For land use change, the results included an increase in annual flows of twenty-one percent for the development-oriented scenario and a decrease of sixteen percent for the conservation-oriented scenario, with amplified changes at the sub-basin scale, including more than doubled winter flow. For combined scenarios of climate change and urban development, there is a projected increase in winter flows of up to seventy-one percent and decrease in summer flows of up to forty-eight percent. Changes in suspended sediment and orthophosphate loading broadly tracked hydrological changes, with winter increases and summer decreases. The results are relevant to regional planners interested in the long-term response of water resources to climate change and land use change at the basin scale. Close

• 22. [Article] The Decision and Rationale which Led to Construction on High-risk Land after the 1964 Alaska Earthquake: Analysis of Risk-based Cultural Dissociation

  Many lives and much property are lost in disasters when individuals and communities choose to ignore information which could mitigate the potential disaster. This case study examines community and individual ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Decision and Rationale which Led to Construction on High-risk Land after the 1964 Alaska Earthquake: Analysis of Risk-based Cultural Dissociation Author: Selkregg, Sheila Ann Year: 1994 Many lives and much property are lost in disasters when individuals and communities choose to ignore information which could mitigate the potential disaster. This case study examines community and individual decision processes and rationale which led to construction of a high-occupancy high-rise courthouse on land designated as high risk after the 1964 Alaska earthquake. The study reviews policy and decision making, psychology, and risk management literature to explore the psychological mechanisms and processes of hazard mitigation decisions. It questions why individuals and communities choose not to mitigate when they have the information which makes risk mitigation possible. The hypothesis theorizes risk-based cultural dissociation and submits that individuals and society process risk-related information in a manner that allows for interpretation and acknowledgement of information so that it is compatible with individual and social agendas and constructs. Society and individuals can and do completely deny or dissociate from risk-related information. This exploratory research uses macro, meso, and micro levels of analysis to examine the environmental setting, land ownership and power, and professional and public seismic information. This examination is placed in the context of Anchorage's post-earthquake reconstruction momentum. In depth interviews with elected officials, a bank president, insurance executives, investors, builders, appointed officials, private and public professionals, court representatives, a judge, a juror, and citizens provide insight into risk perception and individual and community agendas. The interviews revealed each level of analysis had different perceptions of risk and different agendas. Professional warnings not to reconstruct on high-risk land were ignored. Downtown economic interests and powerful individuals significantly impacted the community decision process. One charismatic leader played a major role in the community reconstruction and courthouse decisions. Research findings support the hypothesis. Individuals consistently chose to deny earthquake potential in their daily lives. Selective interpretation of information allowed individuals to support their own agendas. Community decision processes allowed deletion of important information and a transference of responsibility, resulting in no decision body or individual feeling responsible for the decision. Risk-based cultural dissociation is defined and presented in this research as a direction for future study. Title: The Decision and Rationale which Led to Construction on High-risk Land after the 1964 Alaska Earthquake: Analysis of Risk-based Cultural Dissociation Author: Selkregg, Sheila Ann Year: 1994 Many lives and much property are lost in disasters when individuals and communities choose to ignore information which could mitigate the potential disaster. This case study examines community and individual decision processes and rationale which led to construction of a high-occupancy high-rise courthouse on land designated as high risk after the 1964 Alaska earthquake. The study reviews policy and decision making, psychology, and risk management literature to explore the psychological mechanisms and processes of hazard mitigation decisions. It questions why individuals and communities choose not to mitigate when they have the information which makes risk mitigation possible. The hypothesis theorizes risk-based cultural dissociation and submits that individuals and society process risk-related information in a manner that allows for interpretation and acknowledgement of information so that it is compatible with individual and social agendas and constructs. Society and individuals can and do completely deny or dissociate from risk-related information. This exploratory research uses macro, meso, and micro levels of analysis to examine the environmental setting, land ownership and power, and professional and public seismic information. This examination is placed in the context of Anchorage's post-earthquake reconstruction momentum. In depth interviews with elected officials, a bank president, insurance executives, investors, builders, appointed officials, private and public professionals, court representatives, a judge, a juror, and citizens provide insight into risk perception and individual and community agendas. The interviews revealed each level of analysis had different perceptions of risk and different agendas. Professional warnings not to reconstruct on high-risk land were ignored. Downtown economic interests and powerful individuals significantly impacted the community decision process. One charismatic leader played a major role in the community reconstruction and courthouse decisions. Research findings support the hypothesis. Individuals consistently chose to deny earthquake potential in their daily lives. Selective interpretation of information allowed individuals to support their own agendas. Community decision processes allowed deletion of important information and a transference of responsibility, resulting in no decision body or individual feeling responsible for the decision. Risk-based cultural dissociation is defined and presented in this research as a direction for future study. Close

• 23. [Article] Towards the integration of the historical and structural theories of urban form

  In this thesis we examine the effect which the obsolescence of central city housing exerts on the decentralization within urban areas of high status residents. In particular, we investigate whether housing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Towards the integration of the historical and structural theories of urban form Author: Martin, David Tilford Year: 1975 In this thesis we examine the effect which the obsolescence of central city housing exerts on the decentralization within urban areas of high status residents. In particular, we investigate whether housing obsolescence is a useful addition to a model which explains the decentralization of high status residents in terms of the intensity of competition for central city land. All of our data are official Census figures for 1970. The subjects of our study are Standard Metropolitan Statistical Are.as (SMSA.'s) whose central city had a population of 100,000 or more. From this group we delete the New York and Chicago Consolidated Areas because of their great size and the number of municipalities included within their borders. For each SMSA we compute the percentage of its families and unrelated individuals who had an income of greater than $25,000 and who lived in the central city. We then statistically control for variation across SMSA.'s in the decentralization of population and employment. The decentralization of population is measured by the percentage of the SMSA population which resided within the central city. The decentralization of employment is measured by the percentage of SMSA jobs which were located within the central city. Once we have controlled the decentralization of the well-to-do for the decentralization of population and the decentralization of employment, we regress it on population density, housing obsolescence, and city age. Population density is persons per square mile in the central city. Housing obsolescence is the percentage of the central city housing structures which were twenty years old or older. City age is the number of decades since the central city attained a population of 50,000. In our study we demonstrate that population density exerts a considerably stronger effect on the decentralization of the well-to-do than is exerted by housing obsolescence. We also demonstrate that most of city age's effect on the decentralization of the well-to-do can be explained by city age's effect on population density and housing obsolescence. Title: Towards the integration of the historical and structural theories of urban form Author: Martin, David Tilford Year: 1975 In this thesis we examine the effect which the obsolescence of central city housing exerts on the decentralization within urban areas of high status residents. In particular, we investigate whether housing obsolescence is a useful addition to a model which explains the decentralization of high status residents in terms of the intensity of competition for central city land. All of our data are official Census figures for 1970. The subjects of our study are Standard Metropolitan Statistical Are.as (SMSA.'s) whose central city had a population of 100,000 or more. From this group we delete the New York and Chicago Consolidated Areas because of their great size and the number of municipalities included within their borders. For each SMSA we compute the percentage of its families and unrelated individuals who had an income of greater than $25,000 and who lived in the central city. We then statistically control for variation across SMSA.'s in the decentralization of population and employment. The decentralization of population is measured by the percentage of the SMSA population which resided within the central city. The decentralization of employment is measured by the percentage of SMSA jobs which were located within the central city. Once we have controlled the decentralization of the well-to-do for the decentralization of population and the decentralization of employment, we regress it on population density, housing obsolescence, and city age. Population density is persons per square mile in the central city. Housing obsolescence is the percentage of the central city housing structures which were twenty years old or older. City age is the number of decades since the central city attained a population of 50,000. In our study we demonstrate that population density exerts a considerably stronger effect on the decentralization of the well-to-do than is exerted by housing obsolescence. We also demonstrate that most of city age's effect on the decentralization of the well-to-do can be explained by city age's effect on population density and housing obsolescence. Close

• 24. [Article] A Simultaneous Route-level Transit Patronage Model: Demand, Supply, and Inter-route Relationship

  It is observed that transit riders are responding to service changes while transit planning is responding to ridership changes, or that transit patronage and service supply are highly interrelated. It ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Simultaneous Route-level Transit Patronage Model: Demand, Supply, and Inter-route Relationship Author: Peng, Zhongren Year: 1994 It is observed that transit riders are responding to service changes while transit planning is responding to ridership changes, or that transit patronage and service supply are highly interrelated. It is also noticed that transit riders transfer from route to route, the introduction of new service may draw some riders from the existing routes, which implies transit patronage on a route is also affected by other parallel and intersecting routes. An analytic tool is needed to examine these complex relationships in the transit system. This study has developed a quantitative model by incorporating these interactions into a simultaneous system. The simultaneity of transit demand, supply and the interrelationship of inter-route effects are addressed in a three-equation simultaneous model: a demand equation, a supply equation and an equation for competing routes. These equations are estimated simultaneously using the three-stage-least-squares estimation method. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by the time of a day, and by the inbound and outbound directions. Data from Portland, Oregon metropolitan area are used as an extended case study. The socioeconomic and demographic data are allocated to an one-quarter-mile distance service area around a transit route by utilizing the technique of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The data allocation significantly reduces the measurement error. Inter-route relationships are also identified using GIS. The estimation results show that a service change on a route increases the transit patronage on that route, but it also decreases the ridership on its competing routes, so the net effect of that service improvement is smaller than the ridership increase on the subject route. A conventional single equation model under-estimates the ridership responses on the subject route, and over-estimates the net patronage response. This study is the first research to discuss the net effects of a service change at the route level. The model can be implemented for system-level policy analysis and route-level service and land use planning. It is especially useful for "what-if" scenario analysis at the route level to simulate the ridership impacts of service and land use changes. Title: A Simultaneous Route-level Transit Patronage Model: Demand, Supply, and Inter-route Relationship Author: Peng, Zhongren Year: 1994 It is observed that transit riders are responding to service changes while transit planning is responding to ridership changes, or that transit patronage and service supply are highly interrelated. It is also noticed that transit riders transfer from route to route, the introduction of new service may draw some riders from the existing routes, which implies transit patronage on a route is also affected by other parallel and intersecting routes. An analytic tool is needed to examine these complex relationships in the transit system. This study has developed a quantitative model by incorporating these interactions into a simultaneous system. The simultaneity of transit demand, supply and the interrelationship of inter-route effects are addressed in a three-equation simultaneous model: a demand equation, a supply equation and an equation for competing routes. These equations are estimated simultaneously using the three-stage-least-squares estimation method. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by the time of a day, and by the inbound and outbound directions. Data from Portland, Oregon metropolitan area are used as an extended case study. The socioeconomic and demographic data are allocated to an one-quarter-mile distance service area around a transit route by utilizing the technique of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The data allocation significantly reduces the measurement error. Inter-route relationships are also identified using GIS. The estimation results show that a service change on a route increases the transit patronage on that route, but it also decreases the ridership on its competing routes, so the net effect of that service improvement is smaller than the ridership increase on the subject route. A conventional single equation model under-estimates the ridership responses on the subject route, and over-estimates the net patronage response. This study is the first research to discuss the net effects of a service change at the route level. The model can be implemented for system-level policy analysis and route-level service and land use planning. It is especially useful for "what-if" scenario analysis at the route level to simulate the ridership impacts of service and land use changes. Close

• 25. [Article] Mandating Density: The Blunt Instrument of Smart Growth

  This essay expresses concern that urban growth management places too heavy a reliance on densification, particularly upzoning with minimum density requirements in suburban infill situations. Increasing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Mandating Density: The Blunt Instrument of Smart Growth Author: Dueker, Kenneth Year: 2002 This essay expresses concern that urban growth management places too heavy a reliance on densification, particularly upzoning with minimum density requirements in suburban infill situations. Increasing densities may be appropriate when other aspects of urban development can be controlled through urban design. However, evidence provided here indicates that mandating density reduces land consumption, but does not achieve other objectives of growth management, particularly street connectivity, greater use of alternative modes of transportation, and more housing choices. This analysis finds that upzoning and requiring minimum-densities, when used to regulate suburban residential infill developments, is not effective in producing quality compact development. Instead it is resulting in small-lot single-family developments that can only be accessed by cul-de-sac designs augmented by shared driveways. Incentive based approaches to increase density may be preferable. This analysis raises concern about placing too much emphasis on densification as a policy tool for “smart growth.” Too much attention and effort is expended on increasing density of development and there is little evidence of benefits of doing so. The positive aspects of density results from favorable market forces, rather than regulatory forces. Title: Mandating Density: The Blunt Instrument of Smart Growth Author: Dueker, Kenneth Year: 2002 This essay expresses concern that urban growth management places too heavy a reliance on densification, particularly upzoning with minimum density requirements in suburban infill situations. Increasing densities may be appropriate when other aspects of urban development can be controlled through urban design. However, evidence provided here indicates that mandating density reduces land consumption, but does not achieve other objectives of growth management, particularly street connectivity, greater use of alternative modes of transportation, and more housing choices. This analysis finds that upzoning and requiring minimum-densities, when used to regulate suburban residential infill developments, is not effective in producing quality compact development. Instead it is resulting in small-lot single-family developments that can only be accessed by cul-de-sac designs augmented by shared driveways. Incentive based approaches to increase density may be preferable. This analysis raises concern about placing too much emphasis on densification as a policy tool for “smart growth.” Too much attention and effort is expended on increasing density of development and there is little evidence of benefits of doing so. The positive aspects of density results from favorable market forces, rather than regulatory forces. Close

• 26. [Article] The Value of Place: Planning for Walkability in the Tigard Triangle

  The “Tigard Triangle” is bounded by highways and characterized by auto-oriented land uses in an incomplete street grid. It currently presents a challenge to the City of Tigard, whose vision is to be the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Value of Place: Planning for Walkability in the Tigard Triangle Author: Abuhejleh, Wala, Atkinson, Ray, Davis, Linn, Fisher, Curtis Year: 2016 The “Tigard Triangle” is bounded by highways and characterized by auto-oriented land uses in an incomplete street grid. It currently presents a challenge to the City of Tigard, whose vision is to be the most walkable community in the Pacific Northwest. The purpose of the Value of Place project is to develop a plan for improving walkability, safety, comfort, and aesthetics in the Tigard Triangle. In addition, this project was developed to test the application of the State of Place analytical tools to the planning and design challenges faced by the city. This project was conducted under the supervision of Ethan Seltzer, Marisa Zapata, and Susan Hartnett. Title: The Value of Place: Planning for Walkability in the Tigard Triangle Author: Abuhejleh, Wala, Atkinson, Ray, Davis, Linn, Fisher, Curtis Year: 2016 The “Tigard Triangle” is bounded by highways and characterized by auto-oriented land uses in an incomplete street grid. It currently presents a challenge to the City of Tigard, whose vision is to be the most walkable community in the Pacific Northwest. The purpose of the Value of Place project is to develop a plan for improving walkability, safety, comfort, and aesthetics in the Tigard Triangle. In addition, this project was developed to test the application of the State of Place analytical tools to the planning and design challenges faced by the city. This project was conducted under the supervision of Ethan Seltzer, Marisa Zapata, and Susan Hartnett. Close

• 27. [Article] Transportation Solutions: Collaborative Problem Solving for States and Communities

  In April 2003, the National Policy Consensus Center (NPCC) hosted a colloquium for people involved in transportation collaborations—federal and state agency representatives, consultants, dispute resolution ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Transportation Solutions: Collaborative Problem Solving for States and Communities Author: National Policy Consensus Center Year: 2003 In April 2003, the National Policy Consensus Center (NPCC) hosted a colloquium for people involved in transportation collaborations—federal and state agency representatives, consultants, dispute resolution professionals and representatives from professional associations and local planning organizations. The colloquium was co-sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration, the U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials and the Florida, Oregon, and California Departments of Transportation. This report summarizes lessons learned about transportation collaborations and offers recommendations for governors and state transportation officials on ways to enhance the use and effectiveness of collaborative problem solving around transportation issues. The report also identifies areas for additional research that will help fill our knowledge gaps and address existing barriers to effective collaboration on transportation issues. Title: Transportation Solutions: Collaborative Problem Solving for States and Communities Author: National Policy Consensus Center Year: 2003 In April 2003, the National Policy Consensus Center (NPCC) hosted a colloquium for people involved in transportation collaborations—federal and state agency representatives, consultants, dispute resolution professionals and representatives from professional associations and local planning organizations. The colloquium was co-sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration, the U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials and the Florida, Oregon, and California Departments of Transportation. This report summarizes lessons learned about transportation collaborations and offers recommendations for governors and state transportation officials on ways to enhance the use and effectiveness of collaborative problem solving around transportation issues. The report also identifies areas for additional research that will help fill our knowledge gaps and address existing barriers to effective collaboration on transportation issues. Close

• 28. [Article] Co-Evolution of Transportation and Land Use: Modeling HIstorical Dependencies in Land Use and Decision-Making

  The interaction between land use and transportation has long been the central issue in urban and regional planning. Models of such interactions provide vital information to support many public policy decisions, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Co-Evolution of Transportation and Land Use: Modeling HIstorical Dependencies in Land Use and Decision-Making Author: Zhang, Lei, Zu, Wei, Li, Mingxin Year: 2009 The interaction between land use and transportation has long been the central issue in urban and regional planning. Models of such interactions provide vital information to support many public policy decisions, such as land supply, infrastructure provision, and growth management. Both the transportation and land use systems exhibit historical dependencies in policy decisions. For instance, the expansion of a roadway today will change travel demand patterns, and make certain other roads more or less likely to be expanded in the future. A specific land supply decision made at one point in time, by changing the relative attractiveness of other areas in the region, can have a profound impact on future land supply decisions. Today’s land use decisions clearly influence future transportation policies and vice versa. This project examines the land use-transportation interaction from an evolutionary perspective — once a certain set of goals are determined and pursued by politicians and planners, their land supply and transportation investment decisions are, to a large extent, driven by their previous decisions and supply-demand dynamics in the urban system. Built upon this recognition of historical dependency and a transportation network growth model previously developed by the P.I., a model of the co-evolution of land use and transportation is proposed in this project. Different from existing integrated land use and transportation models that assume exogenous network investment decisions, the co-evolution model considers both land use growth and transportation network growth as endogenous and market-driven. The central research question is how market and policies translate into transportation facilities and land use developments on the ground. The co-evolution model achieves an Urban Growth Equilibrium, which is a useful concept for planning and policy analysis. An agent-based simulation approach is employed to integrate an existing land use model and the transportation network growth model. Title: Co-Evolution of Transportation and Land Use: Modeling HIstorical Dependencies in Land Use and Decision-Making Author: Zhang, Lei, Zu, Wei, Li, Mingxin Year: 2009 The interaction between land use and transportation has long been the central issue in urban and regional planning. Models of such interactions provide vital information to support many public policy decisions, such as land supply, infrastructure provision, and growth management. Both the transportation and land use systems exhibit historical dependencies in policy decisions. For instance, the expansion of a roadway today will change travel demand patterns, and make certain other roads more or less likely to be expanded in the future. A specific land supply decision made at one point in time, by changing the relative attractiveness of other areas in the region, can have a profound impact on future land supply decisions. Today’s land use decisions clearly influence future transportation policies and vice versa. This project examines the land use-transportation interaction from an evolutionary perspective — once a certain set of goals are determined and pursued by politicians and planners, their land supply and transportation investment decisions are, to a large extent, driven by their previous decisions and supply-demand dynamics in the urban system. Built upon this recognition of historical dependency and a transportation network growth model previously developed by the P.I., a model of the co-evolution of land use and transportation is proposed in this project. Different from existing integrated land use and transportation models that assume exogenous network investment decisions, the co-evolution model considers both land use growth and transportation network growth as endogenous and market-driven. The central research question is how market and policies translate into transportation facilities and land use developments on the ground. The co-evolution model achieves an Urban Growth Equilibrium, which is a useful concept for planning and policy analysis. An agent-based simulation approach is employed to integrate an existing land use model and the transportation network growth model. Close

• 29. [Article] No More Freeways: Urban Land Use-Transportation Dynamics without Freeway Capacity Expansion

  Observations of the various limitations of freeway capacity expansion have led to a provocative planning and policy question – What if we completely stop building additional freeway capacity. From a theoretical ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: No More Freeways: Urban Land Use-Transportation Dynamics without Freeway Capacity Expansion Author: Zhang, Lei, Xu, We Year: 2011 Observations of the various limitations of freeway capacity expansion have led to a provocative planning and policy question – What if we completely stop building additional freeway capacity. From a theoretical perspective, as a freeway transportation network matures, there exists a saturation point beyond which any additional freeway capacity would only be counterproductive from a welfare point of view, and worsen the existing urban transportation problems. Traditional benefit/cost analysis of individual freeway capacity expansion projects often ignores long-term induced demand and land use changes and does not represent a systems approach to this important theoretical issue. From a practical perspective, a no-more-freeway policy can relieve transportation funds for other potentially more effective usages, such as improving urban arterial street system, improving transit level of service and coverage, implementing demand management and pricing strategies, and facilitating more efficient land use patterns (e.g. high density in-fill and transit-oriented developments). This research answers the following critical land use-transportation planning questions. Improved knowledge on these issues should benefit planers and decision-makers who pursue mobility and sustainability objectives and have the power to shape future cities. (1). Under what conditions will freeway capacity expansion become counterproductive to urban planning objectives (where is the saturation point)? (2). How will land use and transportation evolve under a “No-More-Freeway” policy? (3). What are the implications of such a policy on congestion, land use efficiency, transportation finance, and social welfare? (4). What is the impact of a less restrictive “No-More-Freeway” policy that only allows private-section freeway investments and relieves public-section freeway investments for other compelling transportation needs. The analysis in this project builds upon a modeling tool, ABSOLUTE, developed by the P.I. in previous research projects. ABSOLUTE is an Agent-Based Simulator Of Land Use-Transportation Evolution, which translates planning policies such as the “No-More- Freeway” policy into alternative urban growth paths and possibly urban growth equilibria (land use and transportation system equilibria). Due to the “Small Start” nature of this OTREC project, the analysis focuses primarily on stylized urban areas, and empirical analysis of the “No-More- Freeway” policy is only conducted for one policy scenario on the Twin Cities, MN, area. Title: No More Freeways: Urban Land Use-Transportation Dynamics without Freeway Capacity Expansion Author: Zhang, Lei, Xu, We Year: 2011 Observations of the various limitations of freeway capacity expansion have led to a provocative planning and policy question – What if we completely stop building additional freeway capacity. From a theoretical perspective, as a freeway transportation network matures, there exists a saturation point beyond which any additional freeway capacity would only be counterproductive from a welfare point of view, and worsen the existing urban transportation problems. Traditional benefit/cost analysis of individual freeway capacity expansion projects often ignores long-term induced demand and land use changes and does not represent a systems approach to this important theoretical issue. From a practical perspective, a no-more-freeway policy can relieve transportation funds for other potentially more effective usages, such as improving urban arterial street system, improving transit level of service and coverage, implementing demand management and pricing strategies, and facilitating more efficient land use patterns (e.g. high density in-fill and transit-oriented developments). This research answers the following critical land use-transportation planning questions. Improved knowledge on these issues should benefit planers and decision-makers who pursue mobility and sustainability objectives and have the power to shape future cities. (1). Under what conditions will freeway capacity expansion become counterproductive to urban planning objectives (where is the saturation point)? (2). How will land use and transportation evolve under a “No-More-Freeway” policy? (3). What are the implications of such a policy on congestion, land use efficiency, transportation finance, and social welfare? (4). What is the impact of a less restrictive “No-More-Freeway” policy that only allows private-section freeway investments and relieves public-section freeway investments for other compelling transportation needs. The analysis in this project builds upon a modeling tool, ABSOLUTE, developed by the P.I. in previous research projects. ABSOLUTE is an Agent-Based Simulator Of Land Use-Transportation Evolution, which translates planning policies such as the “No-More- Freeway” policy into alternative urban growth paths and possibly urban growth equilibria (land use and transportation system equilibria). Due to the “Small Start” nature of this OTREC project, the analysis focuses primarily on stylized urban areas, and empirical analysis of the “No-More- Freeway” policy is only conducted for one policy scenario on the Twin Cities, MN, area. Close

• 30. [Article] Techniques for Assessing the Socio-Economic Effects of Vehicle Mileage Fees

  This project considers the socio-economic impacts of the new highway user fee structure made possible by advanced technology. The fee structure also has implications for land use and healthy communities ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Techniques for Assessing the Socio-Economic Effects of Vehicle Mileage Fees Author: McMullen, B. Starr, Nakahara, Kyle, Biswas, Smita, Zhang, Lei, Valluri, Divya Year: 2008 This project considers the socio-economic impacts of the new highway user fee structure made possible by advanced technology. The fee structure also has implications for land use and healthy communities ( urban/rural, income distributional, and environmental impacts). The 2001 Oregon Legislature created the Road User Fee Task Force (RUFTF) to make recommendations regarding a potential replacement for the gasoline tax. A vehicle mile tax has subsequently been proposed as the replacement. Preliminary work has been devoted to exploring technical and institutional options for implementation of such a charge. OSU researchers have developed the technology and there is a pilot project in progress in the Portland area that tests charging vehicle mile road user fees using this technololgy. Media feedback on the proposed vehicle-mile tax has focused on 1) the possible (dis) incentives it could provide to the adoption of more fuel efficient vehicles 2) how the tax may unevenly impact drivers in urban versus rural Oregon, and 3) whether the change in tax structure will have an adverse impact on low income groups. The purpose of this study is to develop a model which provides an analytical framework from which to quantify the impact of changing to the proposed vehicle-mile tax. ODOT will use the results from this study to help formulate the specific form of the vehicle-mile tax (flat tax, a graduated tax, a higher tax for less fuel efficient vehicles, a differential tax for urban/rural areas, etc.). Perhaps just as important is the fact that ODOT needs some quantitative information on the socio-economic impact of such a tax, to use in public relations. A huge factor in determining the ultimate adoption of such a tax structure will be the public acceptance of this change and, in turn, they need to have full information on what it will do. Given the decreasing ability of the gasoline tax to cover the costs of the highway system, an alternative financing scheme is necessary to insure future mobility. There are also implications for environmental stewardship as a vehicle-mile tax has also been suggested as an emissions tax. Finally, once the technology is in place for a vehicle-mile tax, it becomes possible to implement a vehicle-mile tax that may vary by time of day and location, providing an efficient congestion pricing tool. The FHWA has five focus areas for policy research as listed in USDOT, Research, Development, and Technology Plan, 6th edition, FY 2005. One is developing analytical tools to evaluate the impacts of a broad range of highway policy options (p. 4-12). Under Future Direction in Highway Finance: to examine the long-term viability of existing highway financing mechanisms and explore issues relating to alternatives, including the future role of the private sector in providing and managing transportation resources. And under Legislative Analysis and Strategic Planning: Support the development, analysis, and implementation of transportation legislation and address strategic initiatives that are likely to influence future legislative and political directions. Thus, this project is consistent with national and state transportation strategies and priorities. Title: Techniques for Assessing the Socio-Economic Effects of Vehicle Mileage Fees Author: McMullen, B. Starr, Nakahara, Kyle, Biswas, Smita, Zhang, Lei, Valluri, Divya Year: 2008 This project considers the socio-economic impacts of the new highway user fee structure made possible by advanced technology. The fee structure also has implications for land use and healthy communities ( urban/rural, income distributional, and environmental impacts). The 2001 Oregon Legislature created the Road User Fee Task Force (RUFTF) to make recommendations regarding a potential replacement for the gasoline tax. A vehicle mile tax has subsequently been proposed as the replacement. Preliminary work has been devoted to exploring technical and institutional options for implementation of such a charge. OSU researchers have developed the technology and there is a pilot project in progress in the Portland area that tests charging vehicle mile road user fees using this technololgy. Media feedback on the proposed vehicle-mile tax has focused on 1) the possible (dis) incentives it could provide to the adoption of more fuel efficient vehicles 2) how the tax may unevenly impact drivers in urban versus rural Oregon, and 3) whether the change in tax structure will have an adverse impact on low income groups. The purpose of this study is to develop a model which provides an analytical framework from which to quantify the impact of changing to the proposed vehicle-mile tax. ODOT will use the results from this study to help formulate the specific form of the vehicle-mile tax (flat tax, a graduated tax, a higher tax for less fuel efficient vehicles, a differential tax for urban/rural areas, etc.). Perhaps just as important is the fact that ODOT needs some quantitative information on the socio-economic impact of such a tax, to use in public relations. A huge factor in determining the ultimate adoption of such a tax structure will be the public acceptance of this change and, in turn, they need to have full information on what it will do. Given the decreasing ability of the gasoline tax to cover the costs of the highway system, an alternative financing scheme is necessary to insure future mobility. There are also implications for environmental stewardship as a vehicle-mile tax has also been suggested as an emissions tax. Finally, once the technology is in place for a vehicle-mile tax, it becomes possible to implement a vehicle-mile tax that may vary by time of day and location, providing an efficient congestion pricing tool. The FHWA has five focus areas for policy research as listed in USDOT, Research, Development, and Technology Plan, 6th edition, FY 2005. One is developing analytical tools to evaluate the impacts of a broad range of highway policy options (p. 4-12). Under Future Direction in Highway Finance: to examine the long-term viability of existing highway financing mechanisms and explore issues relating to alternatives, including the future role of the private sector in providing and managing transportation resources. And under Legislative Analysis and Strategic Planning: Support the development, analysis, and implementation of transportation legislation and address strategic initiatives that are likely to influence future legislative and political directions. Thus, this project is consistent with national and state transportation strategies and priorities. Close