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• 1. [Article] Demography as Destiny?: Socioeconomic Trends in the Portland Metropolitan Region

  A .pdf version of a PowerPoint presentation to the Multnomah County Library Advisory Board, February 8, 2011. Focuses on a wide range of issues surrounding demographic changes, migration, educational attainment, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Demography as Destiny?: Socioeconomic Trends in the Portland Metropolitan Region Author: Martin, Sheila A., Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2011 A .pdf version of a PowerPoint presentation to the Multnomah County Library Advisory Board, February 8, 2011. Focuses on a wide range of issues surrounding demographic changes, migration, educational attainment, and population trends. Title: Demography as Destiny?: Socioeconomic Trends in the Portland Metropolitan Region Author: Martin, Sheila A., Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2011 A .pdf version of a PowerPoint presentation to the Multnomah County Library Advisory Board, February 8, 2011. Focuses on a wide range of issues surrounding demographic changes, migration, educational attainment, and population trends. Close

• 2. [Article] Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts

  This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Close

• 3. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26, Based on October 2010 Enrollments

  In Fall 2011, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 46,206 students in grades K-12, an increase of 465 students from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of enrollment growth, following 12 consecutive ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26, Based on October 2010 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 In Fall 2011, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 46,206 students in grades K-12, an increase of 465 students from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of enrollment growth, following 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses that occurred between 1996- 97 and 2008-09. For the three year period since 2008-09, PPS K-12 enrollment has grown by 1,182 students, or 2.6 percent. In seven of the past eight years, actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast has been within 300 students of the medium scenario characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecast in reports similar to this one. However, in all eight of those years actual enrollment was higher than the one year medium scenario forecast. Fall 2011 K- 12 enrollment was 227 students (0.5 percent) higher than the medium scenario forecast but 27 students (0.1 percent) lower than the high scenario forecast prepared in Spring 2011. The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2011, based on historic enrollment data from 2010-11 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after 2011-12 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in 2011-12 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. The 2011-12 enrollment figures in this preface were published by the District on November 18, 2011. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26, Based on October 2010 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 In Fall 2011, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 46,206 students in grades K-12, an increase of 465 students from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of enrollment growth, following 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses that occurred between 1996- 97 and 2008-09. For the three year period since 2008-09, PPS K-12 enrollment has grown by 1,182 students, or 2.6 percent. In seven of the past eight years, actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast has been within 300 students of the medium scenario characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecast in reports similar to this one. However, in all eight of those years actual enrollment was higher than the one year medium scenario forecast. Fall 2011 K- 12 enrollment was 227 students (0.5 percent) higher than the medium scenario forecast but 27 students (0.1 percent) lower than the high scenario forecast prepared in Spring 2011. The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2011, based on historic enrollment data from 2010-11 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after 2011-12 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in 2011-12 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. The 2011-12 enrollment figures in this preface were published by the District on November 18, 2011. Close

• 4. [Article] Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31

  The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Close

• 5. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments

  The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after the Fall 2008 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2008 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. In Fall 2008, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,024 students in grades K-12, only 59 fewer students than in Fall 2007. This small loss (one tenth of one percent) extends the string of enrollment losses to 12 years, but is unlike the much larger losses of the previous 11 years. This year’s K-12 enrollment should be characterized as essentially stable compared with last year’s. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after the Fall 2008 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2008 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. In Fall 2008, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,024 students in grades K-12, only 59 fewer students than in Fall 2007. This small loss (one tenth of one percent) extends the string of enrollment losses to 12 years, but is unlike the much larger losses of the previous 11 years. This year’s K-12 enrollment should be characterized as essentially stable compared with last year’s. Close

• 6. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13

  The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing developed within the District. A relatively large incoming kindergarten class also played a role in the growth. This report presents the results of an updated demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. We forecast relatively stable K-12 enrollment totals for the next five years. Based on historic trends in births, migration, and housing construction and our judgment of future trends, we conclude that the average enrollment changes of the next five years are most likely to fall between the large loss that occurred in 2006-07 and the growth that occurred in 2007-08. We are also forecasting relatively stable elementary enrollment, but middle school enrollments are likely to increase and high school enrollments decrease due to the sizes of current classes advancing through secondary schools. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing developed within the District. A relatively large incoming kindergarten class also played a role in the growth. This report presents the results of an updated demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. We forecast relatively stable K-12 enrollment totals for the next five years. Based on historic trends in births, migration, and housing construction and our judgment of future trends, we conclude that the average enrollment changes of the next five years are most likely to fall between the large loss that occurred in 2006-07 and the growth that occurred in 2007-08. We are also forecasting relatively stable elementary enrollment, but middle school enrollments are likely to increase and high school enrollments decrease due to the sizes of current classes advancing through secondary schools. Close

• 7. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments

  The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan, Lycan, Richard, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after preliminary Fall 2009 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2009 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within subareas such as high school clusters. All 2009-10 enrollment figures are preliminary figures as of October 1, tabulated by the District on November 5, 2009. In Fall 2009, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,747 students in grades K-12, an increase of 723 students from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. In each of the previous five years, the medium scenarios characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecasts in reports similar to this one were within 300 students of actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast. This year, K-12 enrollment is about 700 students above the medium scenario prepared in Spring 2009. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan, Lycan, Richard, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after preliminary Fall 2009 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2009 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within subareas such as high school clusters. All 2009-10 enrollment figures are preliminary figures as of October 1, tabulated by the District on November 5, 2009. In Fall 2009, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,747 students in grades K-12, an increase of 723 students from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. In each of the previous five years, the medium scenarios characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecasts in reports similar to this one were within 300 students of actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast. This year, K-12 enrollment is about 700 students above the medium scenario prepared in Spring 2009. Close

• 8. [Article] Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City. Title: Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City. Close

• 9. [Article] Demographic Update

  A summary of recent U.S., Oregon, and Portland Demographic Trends.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Demographic Update Author: Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 A summary of recent U.S., Oregon, and Portland Demographic Trends. Title: Demographic Update Author: Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 A summary of recent U.S., Oregon, and Portland Demographic Trends. Close

• 10. [Article] Population Dynamics of the Portland-Vancouver MSA

  This article offers a descriptive overview of population dynamics in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The MSA includes five of Oregon’s 36 counties–Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Dynamics of the Portland-Vancouver MSA Author: Sprague, Webb, Picha, Emily Year: 2010 This article offers a descriptive overview of population dynamics in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The MSA includes five of Oregon’s 36 counties–Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill, as well as Clark and Skamania counties in the state of Washington (see Figure 1). (In 2007, the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton MSA was redefined to include Skamania County in Washington. For the sake of comparability, we have therefore derived all historical data as if this definition has always applied. Because of this change, many of our historical numbers may have shifted since the last report on Oregon demography in the 2007 Metropolitan Briefing Book.) The article describes current trends for population growth; the effect of births, deaths, and migration on population growth; and how the age, sex, and ethnic composition of the population are changing. We concentrate on describing population trends rather than speculating on the causes of population change or making population predictions. An understanding of population dynamics can inform policy-making, and we hope we can provide a solid basis of understanding for decision-makers and community members in the Portland region. Title: Population Dynamics of the Portland-Vancouver MSA Author: Sprague, Webb, Picha, Emily Year: 2010 This article offers a descriptive overview of population dynamics in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The MSA includes five of Oregon’s 36 counties–Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill, as well as Clark and Skamania counties in the state of Washington (see Figure 1). (In 2007, the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton MSA was redefined to include Skamania County in Washington. For the sake of comparability, we have therefore derived all historical data as if this definition has always applied. Because of this change, many of our historical numbers may have shifted since the last report on Oregon demography in the 2007 Metropolitan Briefing Book.) The article describes current trends for population growth; the effect of births, deaths, and migration on population growth; and how the age, sex, and ethnic composition of the population are changing. We concentrate on describing population trends rather than speculating on the causes of population change or making population predictions. An understanding of population dynamics can inform policy-making, and we hope we can provide a solid basis of understanding for decision-makers and community members in the Portland region. Close