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• 41. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,341 students in Fall 2012, a decrease of 25 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the declines of the most recent two years have been small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 36 students (0.6 percent) in 2012‐13, and 238 students (4.1 percent) for the four year period since their enrollment peak in 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) in District schools gained enrollment in 2012‐13, and are just 59 students (2.0 percent) below their 2009‐10 peak. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 has been virtually unchanged since 2010‐11 and remains near its peak. In contrast to the K‐5th grade enrollment decline, Fall 2012 kindergarten enrollment of 939 in TTSD schools was the largest ever, 62 students larger than in Fall 2011. However, the kindergarten growth is not likely to be sustained, as births to District residents peaked in 2006‐07, the birth cohort that entered kindergarten in Fall 2012. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,341 students in Fall 2012, a decrease of 25 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the declines of the most recent two years have been small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 36 students (0.6 percent) in 2012‐13, and 238 students (4.1 percent) for the four year period since their enrollment peak in 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) in District schools gained enrollment in 2012‐13, and are just 59 students (2.0 percent) below their 2009‐10 peak. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 has been virtually unchanged since 2010‐11 and remains near its peak. In contrast to the K‐5th grade enrollment decline, Fall 2012 kindergarten enrollment of 939 in TTSD schools was the largest ever, 62 students larger than in Fall 2011. However, the kindergarten growth is not likely to be sustained, as births to District residents peaked in 2006‐07, the birth cohort that entered kindergarten in Fall 2012. Close

• 42. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Close

• 43. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,366 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 27 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the change was small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 73 students (1.3 percent) in 2011‐12, and 202 students (3.5 percent) for the three year period since 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) gained 51 students (1.8 percent) in 2011‐12, mostly due to a larger sixth grade replacing a smaller eighth grade. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 was essentially stable, decreasing by just five students (0.1 percent). Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,366 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 27 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the change was small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 73 students (1.3 percent) in 2011‐12, and 202 students (3.5 percent) for the three year period since 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) gained 51 students (1.8 percent) in 2011‐12, mostly due to a larger sixth grade replacing a smaller eighth grade. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 was essentially stable, decreasing by just five students (0.1 percent). Close

• 44. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan Year: 2008 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with increases of 99 students (1.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 36 students (1.3 percent) in grades 6-8. District-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 was unchanged from Fall 2007. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2018-19 school years. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 20 of the past 21 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan Year: 2008 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with increases of 99 students (1.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 36 students (1.3 percent) in grades 6-8. District-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 was unchanged from Fall 2007. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2018-19 school years. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 20 of the past 21 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Close

• 45. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases of 59 students (2.1 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 93 students (2.4 percent) in high school grades 9-12. Elementary grades K-5 enrolled only one more student in Fall 2007 compared with Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Single family housing development in 2007 has been slower than in recent years, as homebuilders have adjusted to the slower housing market that has affected the Portland metropolitan region. But construction and sales are continuing in several subdivisions in the District, at least two large multi-family developments are planned, and redevelopment and infill is also adding to the District’s housing stock. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases of 59 students (2.1 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 93 students (2.4 percent) in high school grades 9-12. Elementary grades K-5 enrolled only one more student in Fall 2007 compared with Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Single family housing development in 2007 has been slower than in recent years, as homebuilders have adjusted to the slower housing market that has affected the Portland metropolitan region. But construction and sales are continuing in several subdivisions in the District, at least two large multi-family developments are planned, and redevelopment and infill is also adding to the District’s housing stock. Close

• 46. [Article] Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts

  This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Close

• 47. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation

  This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long term District wide forecast was developed using patterns of migration, fertility and mortality that are most likely to occur between school years 2006 and 2015. In addition to the most likely scenario, or the medium growth forecast, two other scenarios--for higher and lower growth trends--were derived. Forecasts by grade for individual schoolsand school attendance areas were also prepared; these forecasts relied on the District wide medium growth scenario. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long term District wide forecast was developed using patterns of migration, fertility and mortality that are most likely to occur between school years 2006 and 2015. In addition to the most likely scenario, or the medium growth forecast, two other scenarios--for higher and lower growth trends--were derived. Forecasts by grade for individual schoolsand school attendance areas were also prepared; these forecasts relied on the District wide medium growth scenario. Close

• 48. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32

  This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Close

• 49. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26

  The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2006 The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served by the District has experienced sustained growth in population, housing, and public school enrollment in recent years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that NSSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next twenty years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2006 The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served by the District has experienced sustained growth in population, housing, and public school enrollment in recent years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that NSSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next twenty years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Close

• 50. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2014-15 to 2028-29, Based on October 2013 Enrollments

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2014-15 to 2028-29, Based on October 2013 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the number of PPS students by housing type, and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15 year horizon, from 2014‐15 to 2028‐29. Enrollment Forecasts were prepared under high, medium, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the medium district‐wide forecast. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2014-15 to 2028-29, Based on October 2013 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the number of PPS students by housing type, and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15 year horizon, from 2014‐15 to 2028‐29. Enrollment Forecasts were prepared under high, medium, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the medium district‐wide forecast. Close