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• 21. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Umatilla County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates near one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Umatilla County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates near one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Hermiston, the most populous UGB, and Umatilla UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 2.8 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Umatilla County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural increase and periods of substantial net in-migration. A larger number of births relative to deaths led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Even so the natural increase continues to account for most of the population growth. Total population in Umatilla County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (2035-2066) (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to an increase in deaths. Even so, natural increase is expected to persist, combining with steady in-migration for continued strong population growth. Umatilla County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 13,300 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by close to 36,800 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Umatilla County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates near one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Hermiston, the most populous UGB, and Umatilla UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 2.8 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Umatilla County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural increase and periods of substantial net in-migration. A larger number of births relative to deaths led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Even so the natural increase continues to account for most of the population growth. Total population in Umatilla County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (2035-2066) (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to an increase in deaths. Even so, natural increase is expected to persist, combining with steady in-migration for continued strong population growth. Umatilla County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 13,300 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by close to 36,800 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 22. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Lake County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Lake County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). While the county, as a whole, experienced a population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lake County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Lake County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). While the county, as a whole, experienced a population increase, the two UGB areas both recorded population decline. At the same time the area outside UGBs posted substantial population growth during the 2000s, adding an average of nearly 90 new persons per year. Lake County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of periods of substantial net in-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, continuing to account for all of Lake County’s population increase. Total population in Lake County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lake County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 600 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 1,400 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed some population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience slower rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lake County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Lake County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). While the county, as a whole, experienced a population increase, the two UGB areas both recorded population decline. At the same time the area outside UGBs posted substantial population growth during the 2000s, adding an average of nearly 90 new persons per year. Lake County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of periods of substantial net in-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, continuing to account for all of Lake County’s population increase. Total population in Lake County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lake County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 600 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 1,400 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed some population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience slower rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 23. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population has slowly declined since 2000, with an average annual rate of negative 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). Burns is accountable for the county’s overall declining population. All other sub-areas experienced very slight population growths during the 2000 to 2010 period, increasing by a total of 32 persons. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of frequent net out-migration. The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, however, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase for 8 out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015 (Figure 12). Even so, net out-migration outweighed these slight natural increases, causing a slow decrease in the Harney County’s population since 2000. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas are forecast to all decrease at a slightly faster rate in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 500 persons over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066), a loss in population mostly happening in areas outside the UGBs. Sub-areas are expected to generally follow historical patterns of population decrease over the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population has slowly declined since 2000, with an average annual rate of negative 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). Burns is accountable for the county’s overall declining population. All other sub-areas experienced very slight population growths during the 2000 to 2010 period, increasing by a total of 32 persons. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of frequent net out-migration. The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, however, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase for 8 out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015 (Figure 12). Even so, net out-migration outweighed these slight natural increases, causing a slow decrease in the Harney County’s population since 2000. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas are forecast to all decrease at a slightly faster rate in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 500 persons over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066), a loss in population mostly happening in areas outside the UGBs. Sub-areas are expected to generally follow historical patterns of population decrease over the forecast period. Close

• 24. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Martin, Sheila Year: 2014 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Martin, Sheila Year: 2014 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 25. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 26. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 27. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation

  This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long term District wide forecast was developed using patterns of migration, fertility and mortality that are most likely to occur between school years 2006 and 2015. In addition to the most likely scenario, or the medium growth forecast, two other scenarios--for higher and lower growth trends--were derived. Forecasts by grade for individual schoolsand school attendance areas were also prepared; these forecasts relied on the District wide medium growth scenario. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long term District wide forecast was developed using patterns of migration, fertility and mortality that are most likely to occur between school years 2006 and 2015. In addition to the most likely scenario, or the medium growth forecast, two other scenarios--for higher and lower growth trends--were derived. Forecasts by grade for individual schoolsand school attendance areas were also prepared; these forecasts relied on the District wide medium growth scenario. Close

• 28. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 29. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32

  This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Close

• 30. [Article] Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon

  Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon Author: Wineberg, Howard, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1995 Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 people moving to Oregon and about 281,000 people leaving Oregon. Approximately one half of the people moving to Oregon came from California and Washington and about 60% of the people leaving Oregon moved to these two states. Differentials were found in the characteristics of in- and out-migrants. In particular, in-migrants were more likely to be below poverty, 65 years of age and older, and have difficulty speaking English than out-migrants. A greater proportion of out-migrants had a bachelor's degree and income levels were higher for out-migrants than in-migrants. The implications of these findings are discussed. Title: Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon Author: Wineberg, Howard, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1995 Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 people moving to Oregon and about 281,000 people leaving Oregon. Approximately one half of the people moving to Oregon came from California and Washington and about 60% of the people leaving Oregon moved to these two states. Differentials were found in the characteristics of in- and out-migrants. In particular, in-migrants were more likely to be below poverty, 65 years of age and older, and have difficulty speaking English than out-migrants. A greater proportion of out-migrants had a bachelor's degree and income levels were higher for out-migrants than in-migrants. The implications of these findings are discussed. Close