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• 1. [Article] Comparative hazard assessment for protected species in a fire-prone landscape

  This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/forest-ecology-...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Comparative hazard assessment for protected species in a fire-prone landscape Author: Mealey, Stephen P., Roloff, Gary J., Bailey, John D. This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/forest-ecology-and-management/. Title: Comparative hazard assessment for protected species in a fire-prone landscape Author: Mealey, Stephen P., Roloff, Gary J., Bailey, John D. This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/forest-ecology-and-management/. Close

• 2. [Article] Report of the forest fuels and hazard mitigation committee to the Oregon Department of Forestry and Oregon Fire Program Review

  Many Oregon communities face serious and growing risks from wildfires. These fires are increasingly large and severe after many decades of fire suppression and land use changes, flammable fuel buildups ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Report of the forest fuels and hazard mitigation committee to the Oregon Department of Forestry and Oregon Fire Program Review Author: Institute for Natural Resources, Behan, Jeff, Lynn, Kathy Many Oregon communities face serious and growing risks from wildfires. These fires are increasingly large and severe after many decades of fire suppression and land use changes, flammable fuel buildups and interactions with climate. The wildland-urban interface (WUI) continues to expand as people relocate to rural areas where they often expect structural fire protection similar to what they experienced in cities. But conditions are different in rural communities located in fire-prone forests. The risk of severe wildfire is greater and limited resources are available to deal with severe fires when they break out. Fire prevention and suppression without vegetation management to reduce accumulated fuels has and will result in a continuation of uncharacteristically severe, stand-replacing wildfires, particularly in eastern and southwestern Oregon. These fires are difficult and expensive to control. They also place firefighters at high risk. Federal, state and rural fire protection agencies are struggling to cope as wildfire threats, costs, and the scope of protection responsibilities continue to increase. Federal agencies have initiated efforts to reduce hazardous fuels and increase community wildfire readiness as directed by the 2000 National Fire Plan (NFP) and 2003 Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). These mandates are now being implemented at multiple levels with every effort to coordinate for greater efficiency. As part of the 2004 Oregon Fire Program Review, the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) formed the Forest Fuels and Hazard Mitigation (FFHM) Committee to assess hazardous fuel loading issues, and recommend ways to reduce risk, and improve and strengthen the multiple hazard mitigation strategies in Oregon. Title: Report of the forest fuels and hazard mitigation committee to the Oregon Department of Forestry and Oregon Fire Program Review Author: Institute for Natural Resources, Behan, Jeff, Lynn, Kathy Many Oregon communities face serious and growing risks from wildfires. These fires are increasingly large and severe after many decades of fire suppression and land use changes, flammable fuel buildups and interactions with climate. The wildland-urban interface (WUI) continues to expand as people relocate to rural areas where they often expect structural fire protection similar to what they experienced in cities. But conditions are different in rural communities located in fire-prone forests. The risk of severe wildfire is greater and limited resources are available to deal with severe fires when they break out. Fire prevention and suppression without vegetation management to reduce accumulated fuels has and will result in a continuation of uncharacteristically severe, stand-replacing wildfires, particularly in eastern and southwestern Oregon. These fires are difficult and expensive to control. They also place firefighters at high risk. Federal, state and rural fire protection agencies are struggling to cope as wildfire threats, costs, and the scope of protection responsibilities continue to increase. Federal agencies have initiated efforts to reduce hazardous fuels and increase community wildfire readiness as directed by the 2000 National Fire Plan (NFP) and 2003 Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). These mandates are now being implemented at multiple levels with every effort to coordinate for greater efficiency. As part of the 2004 Oregon Fire Program Review, the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) formed the Forest Fuels and Hazard Mitigation (FFHM) Committee to assess hazardous fuel loading issues, and recommend ways to reduce risk, and improve and strengthen the multiple hazard mitigation strategies in Oregon. Close

• 3. [Article] Carbon dynamics following landscape fire: influence of burn severity, climate, and stand history in the Metolius Watershed, Oregon

  Fire is a fundamental disturbance that drives terrestrial and atmospheric carbon dynamics. Previous studies have quantified fire effects on carbon cycling from local to global scales but have focused ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Carbon dynamics following landscape fire: influence of burn severity, climate, and stand history in the Metolius Watershed, Oregon Author: Meigs, Garrett W. Fire is a fundamental disturbance that drives terrestrial and atmospheric carbon dynamics. Previous studies have quantified fire effects on carbon cycling from local to global scales but have focused nearly exclusively on high-severity, stand-replacement fire. Since 2002, variable-severity wildfires have burned more than 65 000 ha across the east slope of the Oregon Cascades, including 4 large fires that burned ca. 50% of the forested area within the Metolius Watershed in 2002 and 2003. This thesis integrates data from 64 field plots, remote-sensing, and an ecosystem process model to investigate the effects of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fire. The primary research objectives were to: (a) quantify combustion and mortality effects on carbon pools, postfire net ecosystem production (NEP), and potential regeneration trajectories at the stand scale; (b) introduce novel remote-sensing datasets into a modeling framework to assess the importance of low- and moderate-severity fire across the landscape and region. At the stand-scale, the 3 levels of burn severity (overstory tree mortality) resulted in profoundly different impacts on combustion, mortality, postfire carbon balance, and potential regeneration trajectories. Simulated combustion ranged from 16.6 to 32.3 Mg C ha-1, or 13% to 35% of prefire aboveground carbon. C transfers from fire-induced tree mortality were larger in magnitude than combustion, as live aboveground C decreased by >90% from low- to high-severity stands. Despite this decline, total net primary productivity (NPP) was only 40% lower in high- vs. low-severity stands, reflecting a compensatory effect of non-tree NPP. Dead wood respiratory losses were small relative to C uptake (range: 10-35% of total NPP), suggesting important decomposition lags in this seasonally-arid system. Although soil C, soil respiration, and fine root NPP were conserved across severity classes, NEP declined with increasing severity, driven by trends in aboveground NPP. Postfire conifer seedling density was generally abundant and varied over 5 orders of magnitude (study-wide median: 812, range: 0 – 62 134 seedlings ha-1). Seedling density was negatively correlated with overstory mortality, whereas shrub biomass showed the opposite response, indicating a wide range of potential successional trajectories. Despite substantial combustion and mortality effects on carbon pools and fluxes, the rapid response of postfire vegetation, coupled with conservation of belowground processes, may offset long-term declines in carbon storage, indicating a surprising degree of postfire stability. These stand-scale results describe a broad range of fire effects—a high degree of pyrodiversity—but because burn severity was not evenly distributed across space, the landscape-level fire effects depend on the severity mosaic. At the landscape-scale, moderate- and low-severity fire contributed 25% and 11% of total estimated pyrogenic carbon emission, respectively (0.66 Tg C total, or ca. 2.2% of statewide anthropogenic CO2 emissions equivalent from the same 2-year period). Moderate- and low-severity fire accounted for 23% and 5% of landscape-level tree mortality, respectively, which resulted in the transfer of 2.00 Tg C from live to dead pools. This carbon transfer was ca. 3-fold higher than the one-time pulse from pyrogenic emission, but it will likely take decades for this dead wood to decompose via heterotrophic respiration. The inclusion of moderate-severity fire reduced postfire (2004) mean annual NEP by 39% compared to the high-severity only scenario; low-severity fire influence on NEP was small (additional reduction of 11% in mean NEP), likely because of high tree survivorship and the relatively lower areal coverage of low-severity fire. One year postfire, burned areas were a strong C source (net C exchange across 53 000 ha: -0.065 Tg C y-1; mean ± SD: -123 ± 110 g C m-2 y-1) vs. a prefire mean near C neutral (1997-2001 mean NEP ± SD: -5 ± 51 g C m-2 y-1). The model has been known to underestimate carbon uptake in mature and old semi-arid forests, so the prefire value is likely underestimated. Despite the resurgence of wildfire across western North America, including a substantial increase in the proportion of high-severity fire in the ecoregions studied here, low- and moderate-severity wildfire accounts for the majority of burned area in the Pacific Northwest region. This non-stand-replacement fire has important consequences for carbon loss and uptake at landscape- and regional-scales. The results from this thesis suggest that by accounting for the full gradient of fire effects, carbon modelers can substantially reduce uncertainties in key components of regional and global carbon budgets, particularly pyrogenic emissions, mortality, and NEP. Understanding the effects of disturbance variability on terrestrial carbon cycling will become increasingly important in the context of emerging regional and global carbon policies. Title: Carbon dynamics following landscape fire: influence of burn severity, climate, and stand history in the Metolius Watershed, Oregon Author: Meigs, Garrett W. Fire is a fundamental disturbance that drives terrestrial and atmospheric carbon dynamics. Previous studies have quantified fire effects on carbon cycling from local to global scales but have focused nearly exclusively on high-severity, stand-replacement fire. Since 2002, variable-severity wildfires have burned more than 65 000 ha across the east slope of the Oregon Cascades, including 4 large fires that burned ca. 50% of the forested area within the Metolius Watershed in 2002 and 2003. This thesis integrates data from 64 field plots, remote-sensing, and an ecosystem process model to investigate the effects of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fire. The primary research objectives were to: (a) quantify combustion and mortality effects on carbon pools, postfire net ecosystem production (NEP), and potential regeneration trajectories at the stand scale; (b) introduce novel remote-sensing datasets into a modeling framework to assess the importance of low- and moderate-severity fire across the landscape and region. At the stand-scale, the 3 levels of burn severity (overstory tree mortality) resulted in profoundly different impacts on combustion, mortality, postfire carbon balance, and potential regeneration trajectories. Simulated combustion ranged from 16.6 to 32.3 Mg C ha-1, or 13% to 35% of prefire aboveground carbon. C transfers from fire-induced tree mortality were larger in magnitude than combustion, as live aboveground C decreased by >90% from low- to high-severity stands. Despite this decline, total net primary productivity (NPP) was only 40% lower in high- vs. low-severity stands, reflecting a compensatory effect of non-tree NPP. Dead wood respiratory losses were small relative to C uptake (range: 10-35% of total NPP), suggesting important decomposition lags in this seasonally-arid system. Although soil C, soil respiration, and fine root NPP were conserved across severity classes, NEP declined with increasing severity, driven by trends in aboveground NPP. Postfire conifer seedling density was generally abundant and varied over 5 orders of magnitude (study-wide median: 812, range: 0 – 62 134 seedlings ha-1). Seedling density was negatively correlated with overstory mortality, whereas shrub biomass showed the opposite response, indicating a wide range of potential successional trajectories. Despite substantial combustion and mortality effects on carbon pools and fluxes, the rapid response of postfire vegetation, coupled with conservation of belowground processes, may offset long-term declines in carbon storage, indicating a surprising degree of postfire stability. These stand-scale results describe a broad range of fire effects—a high degree of pyrodiversity—but because burn severity was not evenly distributed across space, the landscape-level fire effects depend on the severity mosaic. At the landscape-scale, moderate- and low-severity fire contributed 25% and 11% of total estimated pyrogenic carbon emission, respectively (0.66 Tg C total, or ca. 2.2% of statewide anthropogenic CO2 emissions equivalent from the same 2-year period). Moderate- and low-severity fire accounted for 23% and 5% of landscape-level tree mortality, respectively, which resulted in the transfer of 2.00 Tg C from live to dead pools. This carbon transfer was ca. 3-fold higher than the one-time pulse from pyrogenic emission, but it will likely take decades for this dead wood to decompose via heterotrophic respiration. The inclusion of moderate-severity fire reduced postfire (2004) mean annual NEP by 39% compared to the high-severity only scenario; low-severity fire influence on NEP was small (additional reduction of 11% in mean NEP), likely because of high tree survivorship and the relatively lower areal coverage of low-severity fire. One year postfire, burned areas were a strong C source (net C exchange across 53 000 ha: -0.065 Tg C y-1; mean ± SD: -123 ± 110 g C m-2 y-1) vs. a prefire mean near C neutral (1997-2001 mean NEP ± SD: -5 ± 51 g C m-2 y-1). The model has been known to underestimate carbon uptake in mature and old semi-arid forests, so the prefire value is likely underestimated. Despite the resurgence of wildfire across western North America, including a substantial increase in the proportion of high-severity fire in the ecoregions studied here, low- and moderate-severity wildfire accounts for the majority of burned area in the Pacific Northwest region. This non-stand-replacement fire has important consequences for carbon loss and uptake at landscape- and regional-scales. The results from this thesis suggest that by accounting for the full gradient of fire effects, carbon modelers can substantially reduce uncertainties in key components of regional and global carbon budgets, particularly pyrogenic emissions, mortality, and NEP. Understanding the effects of disturbance variability on terrestrial carbon cycling will become increasingly important in the context of emerging regional and global carbon policies. Close

• 4. [Article] Fire effects on wetland prairie species: final report

  Project No. 14-48-0001-96749

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Fire effects on wetland prairie species: final report Author: Wilson, Mark V., Clark, Deborah Louise, 1950- Project No. 14-48-0001-96749 Title: Fire effects on wetland prairie species: final report Author: Wilson, Mark V., Clark, Deborah Louise, 1950- Project No. 14-48-0001-96749 Close

• 5. [Article] Survival and Home-range Size of Northern Spotted Owls in Southwestern Oregon

  This is a scanned version of a published article. The original can be found at: http://www.raptorresearchfoundation.org/publications/journal-of-raptor-research. To the best of our knowledge, one or more ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Survival and Home-range Size of Northern Spotted Owls in Southwestern Oregon Author: Schilling, Jason W., Anthony, Robert G., Dugger, Katie M. This is a scanned version of a published article. The original can be found at: http://www.raptorresearchfoundation.org/publications/journal-of-raptor-research. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. Title: Survival and Home-range Size of Northern Spotted Owls in Southwestern Oregon Author: Schilling, Jason W., Anthony, Robert G., Dugger, Katie M. This is a scanned version of a published article. The original can be found at: http://www.raptorresearchfoundation.org/publications/journal-of-raptor-research. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. Close

• 6. [Article] Packaging Usable Climate Change Information for Sagebrush Country

  One of the largest ecosystems in the United States, sagebrush-steppe communities are currently in peril and threaten to impact at least 150 species of vertebrates (Hagen 2011). The decline of sagebrush ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Packaging Usable Climate Change Information for Sagebrush Country Author: Brown, Melanie One of the largest ecosystems in the United States, sagebrush-steppe communities are currently in peril and threaten to impact at least 150 species of vertebrates (Hagen 2011). The decline of sagebrush habitat is exacerbated through an interaction of threats and feedbacks, including fire and invasive species, making the management of sagebrush ecosystems a challenge (Connelly et al. 2004). Optimizing sagebrush management to reduce sagebrush decline includes understanding the role of climate (Dalgleish et al. 2011; Schrag et al. 2010; Compagnoni 2013). Current climate tools may be too coarse or may not include the specific variables useful for land management. Further complications may include communication barriers between land managers and climate scientists that can impede efficient information exchange, leaving climate scientists without necessary questions and land managers without necessary answers. There is a need for managers and climate scientist to work together to make current and future climate information more applicable to land management needs (Kocher et al. 2012). This research seeks to understand: Can collaboration between climate scientists and land managers lead to more useful and useable climate tools for land management? The main objectives of this project include the following: ➢ Understand current threats and their sensitivity to climate within Oregon and Idaho sagebrush habitat. ➢ Identify climate information that is needed by land managers to make sagebrush management decisions. ➢ Identify climate tools that would be most useful to land managers. ➢ Compile information to be used within a climate tool that is both useful and useable by land managers. ➢ Gather feedback from managers about the collaboration process and the climate tool created ➢ Assess the collaboration process and whether it was beneficial in adapting climate tools for land managers. ➢ Complete thesis and/or presentation on topic. Title: Packaging Usable Climate Change Information for Sagebrush Country Author: Brown, Melanie One of the largest ecosystems in the United States, sagebrush-steppe communities are currently in peril and threaten to impact at least 150 species of vertebrates (Hagen 2011). The decline of sagebrush habitat is exacerbated through an interaction of threats and feedbacks, including fire and invasive species, making the management of sagebrush ecosystems a challenge (Connelly et al. 2004). Optimizing sagebrush management to reduce sagebrush decline includes understanding the role of climate (Dalgleish et al. 2011; Schrag et al. 2010; Compagnoni 2013). Current climate tools may be too coarse or may not include the specific variables useful for land management. Further complications may include communication barriers between land managers and climate scientists that can impede efficient information exchange, leaving climate scientists without necessary questions and land managers without necessary answers. There is a need for managers and climate scientist to work together to make current and future climate information more applicable to land management needs (Kocher et al. 2012). This research seeks to understand: Can collaboration between climate scientists and land managers lead to more useful and useable climate tools for land management? The main objectives of this project include the following: ➢ Understand current threats and their sensitivity to climate within Oregon and Idaho sagebrush habitat. ➢ Identify climate information that is needed by land managers to make sagebrush management decisions. ➢ Identify climate tools that would be most useful to land managers. ➢ Compile information to be used within a climate tool that is both useful and useable by land managers. ➢ Gather feedback from managers about the collaboration process and the climate tool created ➢ Assess the collaboration process and whether it was beneficial in adapting climate tools for land managers. ➢ Complete thesis and/or presentation on topic. Close

• 7. [Article] Effects of wildfire on growth and demographics of coastal cutthroat trout in headwater streams

  Wildfire is a largely terrestrial perturbation broadly recognized as an agent of disturbance and ecological change in forested biomes. Effects of post-fire conditions on biotic components of aquatic systems ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Effects of wildfire on growth and demographics of coastal cutthroat trout in headwater streams Author: Heck, Michael P. Wildfire is a largely terrestrial perturbation broadly recognized as an agent of disturbance and ecological change in forested biomes. Effects of post-fire conditions on biotic components of aquatic systems have been less well-documented, although hypothetically, the two are strongly connected. In fact, the influence of wildfire may be most profound in headwater streams because of the tight linkage between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We sought to understand the influence of post-fire conditions on fish in headwater streams by observing growth and demographics of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) following wildfire. During the summer of 2002, wildfire burned portions of three headwater watersheds in the North Umpqua basin of western Oregon. Burn severities ranged from moderate to severe. A reference stream was selected from a nearby fourth watershed. All fish-bearing portions of the stream network in the four watersheds were surveyed for 3 years following the wildfire, and 1,295 scale samples were collected from coastal cutthroat trout for age and growth analysis. Stream temperatures in the burned watersheds changed significantly following the wildfire (p < 0.016), with increases of up to 23% in the most severely burned watershed. During summer electrofishing surveys in the burned watersheds, both young-of-the-year and fish ≥ age 1 were captured; in the unburned watershed, the vast majority of fish captured were ≥ age 1. Age-frequency analyses revealed that fish in older age classes (age ≥ 3) were more prevalent in the unburned watershed than in the burned watersheds. Relative growth rates and length at last annulus formation of coastal cutthroat trout were positively related to the number of degree days during the growing season, and Pearson correlation coefficients ranged from 0.60 (p < 0.07) to 0.90 (p < 0.01). Growth rates and size of fish were not significantly correlated with relative density of fish (p ≥ 0.14). Contrary to the commonly held assumption that wildfire is detrimental to biota in aquatic systems, these results suggest that in the short term (≤ 3 years), fish in the study streams adjusted to environmental change caused by wildfire. Title: Effects of wildfire on growth and demographics of coastal cutthroat trout in headwater streams Author: Heck, Michael P. Wildfire is a largely terrestrial perturbation broadly recognized as an agent of disturbance and ecological change in forested biomes. Effects of post-fire conditions on biotic components of aquatic systems have been less well-documented, although hypothetically, the two are strongly connected. In fact, the influence of wildfire may be most profound in headwater streams because of the tight linkage between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We sought to understand the influence of post-fire conditions on fish in headwater streams by observing growth and demographics of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) following wildfire. During the summer of 2002, wildfire burned portions of three headwater watersheds in the North Umpqua basin of western Oregon. Burn severities ranged from moderate to severe. A reference stream was selected from a nearby fourth watershed. All fish-bearing portions of the stream network in the four watersheds were surveyed for 3 years following the wildfire, and 1,295 scale samples were collected from coastal cutthroat trout for age and growth analysis. Stream temperatures in the burned watersheds changed significantly following the wildfire (p < 0.016), with increases of up to 23% in the most severely burned watershed. During summer electrofishing surveys in the burned watersheds, both young-of-the-year and fish ≥ age 1 were captured; in the unburned watershed, the vast majority of fish captured were ≥ age 1. Age-frequency analyses revealed that fish in older age classes (age ≥ 3) were more prevalent in the unburned watershed than in the burned watersheds. Relative growth rates and length at last annulus formation of coastal cutthroat trout were positively related to the number of degree days during the growing season, and Pearson correlation coefficients ranged from 0.60 (p < 0.07) to 0.90 (p < 0.01). Growth rates and size of fish were not significantly correlated with relative density of fish (p ≥ 0.14). Contrary to the commonly held assumption that wildfire is detrimental to biota in aquatic systems, these results suggest that in the short term (≤ 3 years), fish in the study streams adjusted to environmental change caused by wildfire. Close

• 8. [Article] Modeling sage-grouse habitat using a state-and-transition model

  Habitat for wildlife species that depend on sagebrush ecosystems is of great management concern. Evaluating how management activities and climate change may affect the abundance of moderate and high-quality ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Modeling sage-grouse habitat using a state-and-transition model Author: Evers, Louisa Habitat for wildlife species that depend on sagebrush ecosystems is of great management concern. Evaluating how management activities and climate change may affect the abundance of moderate and high-quality habitat necessitates the development of models that examine vegetation dynamics, but modeling tools for rangeland systems are limited. I developed state-and-transition models using a combination of scientific literature and data for climate, soils, and wildfire to examine how different types of natural events, management activities, changing climate, and potential future vegetation dynamics may interact and affect the abundance of habitat for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Specific periods examined include the era prior to 1850, the current era, and late in the 21st century in southeastern Oregon. A primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of climate data to define most event probabilities and, subsequently, the relative mix of ecological states, community phases, and sage-grouse habitat with an eye towards a modeling approach that was objective, repeatable, and transferrable to other locations. Contrary to expectations, model results of the conditions prior to 1850 indicated fire may not have been the most important disturbance factor influencing sage-grouse habitat abundance, merely the most visible. Other, more subtle disturbances that thinned sagebrush density, such as drought, herbivory, and weather-related mortality, may have been equally or more important in shaping sage-grouse habitat. Sage-grouse breeding habitat may have been slightly more abundant than levels currently recommended by sage-grouse biologists, brood-rearing habitat may have been as or more abundant, but wintering habitat may have been less abundant. Under the current conditions, livestock grazing during severe drought, postfire seeding success, juniper expansion probabilities, and the frequency of vegetation treatments were the most important determinants of sage-grouse habitat abundance. The current vegetation trajectory would lead to considerably less nesting, brood-rearing, and wintering habitat than sage-grouse biologists recommend. Model results suggested reducing or eliminating livestock grazing during severe drought, increasing postfire seeding success, and treating at least 10% of the so-called expansion juniper each year was necessary to maintain higher levels of sage-grouse habitat, although nesting and brood-rearing habitat remained in short supply. I examined three potential future climates based on long-term climate trends in southeastern Oregon and modeled climate and ecosystem projections for the Pacific Northwest generally. The first scenario produced warmer and drier conditions than present, the second scenario warmer and wetter conditions in winter, and the third scenario warmer and wetter conditions in summer. The implications for sage-grouse habitat abundance were very different between these three scenarios, but all would likely result in the loss or near complete loss of cooler, moister sagebrush communities important for nesting and brood-rearing. Salt desert shrub and warmer, drier sagebrush communities could expand under the first scenario but would have a high risk of displacement by cheatgrass. Juniper woodlands could increase in density and salt desert shrub may expand slightly under the second scenario. The remaining sagebrush communities would remain at high risk of displacement by cheatgrass. Pinyon-juniper woodland could largely displace sagebrush in the third scenario. Sage-grouse habitat quality likely would decline in all three scenarios and the abundance decrease significantly in the second and third scenario. Title: Modeling sage-grouse habitat using a state-and-transition model Author: Evers, Louisa Habitat for wildlife species that depend on sagebrush ecosystems is of great management concern. Evaluating how management activities and climate change may affect the abundance of moderate and high-quality habitat necessitates the development of models that examine vegetation dynamics, but modeling tools for rangeland systems are limited. I developed state-and-transition models using a combination of scientific literature and data for climate, soils, and wildfire to examine how different types of natural events, management activities, changing climate, and potential future vegetation dynamics may interact and affect the abundance of habitat for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Specific periods examined include the era prior to 1850, the current era, and late in the 21st century in southeastern Oregon. A primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of climate data to define most event probabilities and, subsequently, the relative mix of ecological states, community phases, and sage-grouse habitat with an eye towards a modeling approach that was objective, repeatable, and transferrable to other locations. Contrary to expectations, model results of the conditions prior to 1850 indicated fire may not have been the most important disturbance factor influencing sage-grouse habitat abundance, merely the most visible. Other, more subtle disturbances that thinned sagebrush density, such as drought, herbivory, and weather-related mortality, may have been equally or more important in shaping sage-grouse habitat. Sage-grouse breeding habitat may have been slightly more abundant than levels currently recommended by sage-grouse biologists, brood-rearing habitat may have been as or more abundant, but wintering habitat may have been less abundant. Under the current conditions, livestock grazing during severe drought, postfire seeding success, juniper expansion probabilities, and the frequency of vegetation treatments were the most important determinants of sage-grouse habitat abundance. The current vegetation trajectory would lead to considerably less nesting, brood-rearing, and wintering habitat than sage-grouse biologists recommend. Model results suggested reducing or eliminating livestock grazing during severe drought, increasing postfire seeding success, and treating at least 10% of the so-called expansion juniper each year was necessary to maintain higher levels of sage-grouse habitat, although nesting and brood-rearing habitat remained in short supply. I examined three potential future climates based on long-term climate trends in southeastern Oregon and modeled climate and ecosystem projections for the Pacific Northwest generally. The first scenario produced warmer and drier conditions than present, the second scenario warmer and wetter conditions in winter, and the third scenario warmer and wetter conditions in summer. The implications for sage-grouse habitat abundance were very different between these three scenarios, but all would likely result in the loss or near complete loss of cooler, moister sagebrush communities important for nesting and brood-rearing. Salt desert shrub and warmer, drier sagebrush communities could expand under the first scenario but would have a high risk of displacement by cheatgrass. Juniper woodlands could increase in density and salt desert shrub may expand slightly under the second scenario. The remaining sagebrush communities would remain at high risk of displacement by cheatgrass. Pinyon-juniper woodland could largely displace sagebrush in the third scenario. Sage-grouse habitat quality likely would decline in all three scenarios and the abundance decrease significantly in the second and third scenario. Close

• 9. [Article] Creating Useful and Usable Climate Tools for Sagebrush Land Management Through Scientist and Manager Collaboration

  The sagebrush ecosystem, home to numerous plant and animal species including big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and the endemic greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), has endured fragmentation ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Creating Useful and Usable Climate Tools for Sagebrush Land Management Through Scientist and Manager Collaboration Author: Brown, Melanie The sagebrush ecosystem, home to numerous plant and animal species including big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and the endemic greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), has endured fragmentation and degradation of both quantity and quality due to the cumulative and synergistic relationships between an abundance of individual disturbances including grazing, invasive annuals and fire. Climate change may now be an additional threat that poses the greatest risk to these imperiled habitats. Natural resource agencies such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) seek to conserve sagelands through land management activities that ensure the survival of sage-grouse and continuity of the sagebrush biome. Web-based climate tools can help convey climate information that may be necessary for long-term land management, but these tools may not agree with the needs of land managers, may be too complex, or may be misinterpreted. To overcome barriers of user compatibility, the participation of both climate scientists and land managers is necessary during tool development. With the collaboration of Oregon and Idaho BLM sagebrush land managers and climate scientists, this study sought to assess land manager needs and define the criteria for useful and useable climate tools. Using an initial online survey, individual phone interviews with land managers, and a follow-up online survey, a series of land management activities and related climate variables were identified, and several web-based climate tools were assessed. Most managers perform vegetation management through a variety of means including seeding and herbicide application. Such activities are affected by the magnitude and timing of precipitation and temperature, as well as other variables, on seasonal and annual timeframes. For planning purposes land managers also need information on long-term 10-20 year climate trends. The act of listening to the needs of land managers uncovered communication barriers, and provided feedback on existing climate tools emphasizing accessibility, dependability and consistency, clear explanation of terminology, effective visualizations, and relevant spatial and temporal scales to the scope of management activities. We also identified a need for basic information and education on the location of existing climate tools and climate impacts, and a need for near-term forecasting tools that could bridge the gap between weather (≤ 6 months) and climate (≥ 30 years) projections. Title: Creating Useful and Usable Climate Tools for Sagebrush Land Management Through Scientist and Manager Collaboration Author: Brown, Melanie The sagebrush ecosystem, home to numerous plant and animal species including big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and the endemic greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), has endured fragmentation and degradation of both quantity and quality due to the cumulative and synergistic relationships between an abundance of individual disturbances including grazing, invasive annuals and fire. Climate change may now be an additional threat that poses the greatest risk to these imperiled habitats. Natural resource agencies such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) seek to conserve sagelands through land management activities that ensure the survival of sage-grouse and continuity of the sagebrush biome. Web-based climate tools can help convey climate information that may be necessary for long-term land management, but these tools may not agree with the needs of land managers, may be too complex, or may be misinterpreted. To overcome barriers of user compatibility, the participation of both climate scientists and land managers is necessary during tool development. With the collaboration of Oregon and Idaho BLM sagebrush land managers and climate scientists, this study sought to assess land manager needs and define the criteria for useful and useable climate tools. Using an initial online survey, individual phone interviews with land managers, and a follow-up online survey, a series of land management activities and related climate variables were identified, and several web-based climate tools were assessed. Most managers perform vegetation management through a variety of means including seeding and herbicide application. Such activities are affected by the magnitude and timing of precipitation and temperature, as well as other variables, on seasonal and annual timeframes. For planning purposes land managers also need information on long-term 10-20 year climate trends. The act of listening to the needs of land managers uncovered communication barriers, and provided feedback on existing climate tools emphasizing accessibility, dependability and consistency, clear explanation of terminology, effective visualizations, and relevant spatial and temporal scales to the scope of management activities. We also identified a need for basic information and education on the location of existing climate tools and climate impacts, and a need for near-term forecasting tools that could bridge the gap between weather (≤ 6 months) and climate (≥ 30 years) projections. Close

• 10. [Article] Vegetation and Small Mammal Responses to Western Juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) Control in Eastern Oregon

  Shrub-steppe ecosystems of western North America provide habitat for many wildlife species, are important components of public and private rangelands, and offer recreational opportunities for millions ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Vegetation and Small Mammal Responses to Western Juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) Control in Eastern Oregon Author: Morozumi, Corinne N. Shrub-steppe ecosystems of western North America provide habitat for many wildlife species, are important components of public and private rangelands, and offer recreational opportunities for millions of people. They are some of the most vulnerable ecosystems in the United States and have been altered by human activities such as livestock grazing, active fire suppression, conversion to agriculture, and urbanization of the west. Since the late 1800s woody encroachment of piñon-juniper species has also contributed to the loss of shrub-steppe habitat. Presently, land managers remove woody tree species in order to recover shrub-steppe although it is unclear how responses to these management activities differ due to site-specific conditions and existing woodland development. I studied post juniper-thinning responses in eastern Oregon at a wildlife area important as winter range for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). I investigated vegetative responses to western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) thinning across a woodland development gradient and tested for interactive effects of juniper cutting and cattle exclusion. In addition, I explored plant and small mammal successional dynamics after juniper thinning and examined plant community responses within microhabitats created by the felled trees. I compared vegetative responses to juniper thinning as well as cattle exclusion among sites where juniper were subordinate (Phase I), co-dominant (Phase II), and dominant to shrubs and grasses (Phase III, sensu Miller et al. 2005). At the Phase I site, thinning did not increase herbaceous biomass while thinned plots at the Phase II site had 2.71 times more median herbaceous biomass (99.17% CI: 1.37 to 5.37 times more biomass) than unthinned plots. Conversely, herbaceous biomass at the Phase III juniper woodland site was 0.36 times lower in thinned plots when compared to unthinned plots (99.17% CI: 0.17 to 0.78 times less biomass). Unfortunately, many of the responses were driven by exotic species release. Where juniper were subordinate (Phase I), mean percent cover by exotic grass increased by 24.58 percentage points in thinned plots as compared to unthinned plots (98.30% CI: 0.27 to 48.90 percentage points higher). Thinning at the Phase II site increased mean exotic grass cover by an estimated 28.47 percentage points as compared to mean exotic cover in the same plots before treatment (98.30% CI: 4.15 to 52.79 percentage points higher cover). Median native bunchgrass cover at this site was 5.06 times greater after juniper treatment (99.7% CI: 1.78 to 14.35 times higher percent cover). I found few main or interactive effects of cattle exclosure after one year of treatment. Responses to grazing exclosure may take longer to develop. These results indicate that sites within the wildlife area respond differently to juniper management and that exotic grass control will be key to successful shrub-steppe recovery. In addition, I used a time-since-juniper thinning chronoseries consisting of plots cut in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and an adjacent uncut control to explore how shrub-steppe flora and fauna are responding to juniper treatment through time. Shrub cover and seedling density were low in each plot. I recorded the highest seedling abundance (mean of 0.25 seedlings) in the uncut control plot. Median grass cover in the uncut control was 9.50% while in the most recently treated plot (2012) it was 26.75%. Small mammal relative abundance and diversity was low across all time-since-treatment plots though highest in the plot with the greatest time-since-treatment. Deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) was the most abundant species in all plots and accounted for 70-95% of all unique captures. Least chipmunk (Tamias minimus) were present in the plot with greatest time-since-treatment indicating the potential recovery of key native shrubs since these small mammals perform an important seed dispersal role. I also investigated how potential microhabitats created by the felled juniper might support different plant communities. I assessed plant responses within zones created by 1) the felled tree (canopy zone), 2) the original duff zone, and 3) the between - tree interspace zone. The three zones had different plant community compositions as analyzed multivariately with non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS). Canopy and duff zones were forb - dominated and had less exotic grass invasion while interspace zones were heavily invested with medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae) and ventenata (Ventenata dubia). Exotic herbaceous productivity was lowest under the standing trees of the control plot and high in the interspace of all plots with juniper thinning. In the 2012 cut plot, grass cover was 27.90 percentage points less in the canopy zone compared to the interspace zone (98.75% CI: 17.64 to 38.16 percentage points less grass cover). In the uncut control, median native biomass was 2.08 times greater under the standing trees compared to the interspace (96.25% CI: 1.09 to 3.97 times more biomass). Results from the time-since-treatment chronoseries indicated that exotic grass dominance might be limiting shrub-steppe recovery. Active restoration of shrubs and native grasses may be necessary to address the dominance of exotic grass after juniper thinning. Positive signs of habitat recovery included small mammal responses though I was unable to calculate population estimates due to plot size. Title: Vegetation and Small Mammal Responses to Western Juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) Control in Eastern Oregon Author: Morozumi, Corinne N. Shrub-steppe ecosystems of western North America provide habitat for many wildlife species, are important components of public and private rangelands, and offer recreational opportunities for millions of people. They are some of the most vulnerable ecosystems in the United States and have been altered by human activities such as livestock grazing, active fire suppression, conversion to agriculture, and urbanization of the west. Since the late 1800s woody encroachment of piñon-juniper species has also contributed to the loss of shrub-steppe habitat. Presently, land managers remove woody tree species in order to recover shrub-steppe although it is unclear how responses to these management activities differ due to site-specific conditions and existing woodland development. I studied post juniper-thinning responses in eastern Oregon at a wildlife area important as winter range for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). I investigated vegetative responses to western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) thinning across a woodland development gradient and tested for interactive effects of juniper cutting and cattle exclusion. In addition, I explored plant and small mammal successional dynamics after juniper thinning and examined plant community responses within microhabitats created by the felled trees. I compared vegetative responses to juniper thinning as well as cattle exclusion among sites where juniper were subordinate (Phase I), co-dominant (Phase II), and dominant to shrubs and grasses (Phase III, sensu Miller et al. 2005). At the Phase I site, thinning did not increase herbaceous biomass while thinned plots at the Phase II site had 2.71 times more median herbaceous biomass (99.17% CI: 1.37 to 5.37 times more biomass) than unthinned plots. Conversely, herbaceous biomass at the Phase III juniper woodland site was 0.36 times lower in thinned plots when compared to unthinned plots (99.17% CI: 0.17 to 0.78 times less biomass). Unfortunately, many of the responses were driven by exotic species release. Where juniper were subordinate (Phase I), mean percent cover by exotic grass increased by 24.58 percentage points in thinned plots as compared to unthinned plots (98.30% CI: 0.27 to 48.90 percentage points higher). Thinning at the Phase II site increased mean exotic grass cover by an estimated 28.47 percentage points as compared to mean exotic cover in the same plots before treatment (98.30% CI: 4.15 to 52.79 percentage points higher cover). Median native bunchgrass cover at this site was 5.06 times greater after juniper treatment (99.7% CI: 1.78 to 14.35 times higher percent cover). I found few main or interactive effects of cattle exclosure after one year of treatment. Responses to grazing exclosure may take longer to develop. These results indicate that sites within the wildlife area respond differently to juniper management and that exotic grass control will be key to successful shrub-steppe recovery. In addition, I used a time-since-juniper thinning chronoseries consisting of plots cut in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and an adjacent uncut control to explore how shrub-steppe flora and fauna are responding to juniper treatment through time. Shrub cover and seedling density were low in each plot. I recorded the highest seedling abundance (mean of 0.25 seedlings) in the uncut control plot. Median grass cover in the uncut control was 9.50% while in the most recently treated plot (2012) it was 26.75%. Small mammal relative abundance and diversity was low across all time-since-treatment plots though highest in the plot with the greatest time-since-treatment. Deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) was the most abundant species in all plots and accounted for 70-95% of all unique captures. Least chipmunk (Tamias minimus) were present in the plot with greatest time-since-treatment indicating the potential recovery of key native shrubs since these small mammals perform an important seed dispersal role. I also investigated how potential microhabitats created by the felled juniper might support different plant communities. I assessed plant responses within zones created by 1) the felled tree (canopy zone), 2) the original duff zone, and 3) the between - tree interspace zone. The three zones had different plant community compositions as analyzed multivariately with non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS). Canopy and duff zones were forb - dominated and had less exotic grass invasion while interspace zones were heavily invested with medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae) and ventenata (Ventenata dubia). Exotic herbaceous productivity was lowest under the standing trees of the control plot and high in the interspace of all plots with juniper thinning. In the 2012 cut plot, grass cover was 27.90 percentage points less in the canopy zone compared to the interspace zone (98.75% CI: 17.64 to 38.16 percentage points less grass cover). In the uncut control, median native biomass was 2.08 times greater under the standing trees compared to the interspace (96.25% CI: 1.09 to 3.97 times more biomass). Results from the time-since-treatment chronoseries indicated that exotic grass dominance might be limiting shrub-steppe recovery. Active restoration of shrubs and native grasses may be necessary to address the dominance of exotic grass after juniper thinning. Positive signs of habitat recovery included small mammal responses though I was unable to calculate population estimates due to plot size. Close