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• 1. [Article] Land Use Planning Information for the Citizens of Oregon

  This white paper seeks to provide facts about the history of land use planning in Oregon while also identifying some of the key challenges facing planning in the future. It also includes useful information ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Land Use Planning Information for the Citizens of Oregon Author: Gray, John D. (John Delton), 1919-, Shriver, Katie This white paper seeks to provide facts about the history of land use planning in Oregon while also identifying some of the key challenges facing planning in the future. It also includes useful information about the work of the Oregon Task Force on Land Use Planning (the “Big Look” task force) and about some of the key research projects that should help provide some answers to current problems. Title: Land Use Planning Information for the Citizens of Oregon Author: Gray, John D. (John Delton), 1919-, Shriver, Katie This white paper seeks to provide facts about the history of land use planning in Oregon while also identifying some of the key challenges facing planning in the future. It also includes useful information about the work of the Oregon Task Force on Land Use Planning (the “Big Look” task force) and about some of the key research projects that should help provide some answers to current problems. Close

• 2. [Article] Three essays on the effectiveness of Oregon's land-use planning system : economic analysis with quasi-experimental methods

  Oregon's land use planning system is often recognized as having been successful in its goals of limiting urban sprawl and protecting resource lands from development. However, it is difficult to quantify ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Three essays on the effectiveness of Oregon's land-use planning system : economic analysis with quasi-experimental methods Author: Dempsey, Judith Oregon's land use planning system is often recognized as having been successful in its goals of limiting urban sprawl and protecting resource lands from development. However, it is difficult to quantify the impact of these regulations, because we cannot observe what would have happened in the absence of land use planning. The three essays in this dissertation explore the effects of Oregon's land use planning regulations on development patterns in the state, and also examine how the land use regulations are administered at the local level. The first essay in this dissertation asks if Oregon’s land use regulations have successfully restricted sprawl outside of urban areas. Urban containment policies, including Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs), are a common tool used by city planners to promote compact development. We analyze how well UGBs do in containing development using fine-scale GIS data on cities in Oregon. Earlier studies on UGBs yield mixed results, with some authors finding no effects of UGBs on housing market variables and urbanization rates and others finding significant effects. A challenge in measuring these effects is that the location of the UGB is unlikely to be an exogenous determinant of a land parcel's value for development. The panel structure of our dataset allows us to estimate the UGB's effect on the probability of development using a difference-in-difference estimator. This estimator controls for time-invariant unobservable variables and common temporal effects among parcels, thereby mitigating the potential for biased estimates due to the endogeneity of the UGB's location. We also pursue a novel approach to controlling for time-varying factors inspired by regression discontinuity design. We find that UGBs are effective in containing development in many of the Oregon cities we examine, although there are some cities in which development rates are the same inside and outside of the UGB. Our results show that we would greatly overstate the effects of the UGBs were we to evaluate cross-sectional differences in development rates, as is common in previous studies. Besides the creation of UGBs, another goal of Oregon's land use regulations is to encourage citizen involvement in the planning process. The second essay in this dissertation examines the use of voter annexation as a form of citizen involvement. More specifically, this paper addresses the following two questions. First, does voter annexation cause changes in city demographics and characteristics? Second, assuming that a city votes for amendments and annexations to the UGB and city limits, what factors impact the outcome of the vote? We analyze the first question using the method of propensity score matching, which has not previously been used to explore this topic. This allows us to account for the endogeneity that stems from the fact that cities with certain characteristics may be more likely to use voter annexation in the first place. The second question, which is only evaluated for cities that employ voter annexation, is analyzed with the use of the logit model. Oregon's land use regulations must be approved at the state level, but are administered locally. Therefore, unlike past studies, we are able to isolate specific differences in the way the program is administered, and are not evaluating the stringency of the program itself. Previous studies have found that voter-approved annexation causes developers to provide more public goods and increase the scale of development, thereby shifting community demographics. Once a land use decision is on the ballot, it is also noted that cities that are whiter, wealthier, and more liberal are more likely to pass referenda that promote preservation and restrict development. For the first question, we compare specific demographic indicators between the two groups of cities. Contrary to the results of previous studies, we find no effect of voter annexation on these indicators. Our results for the second question indicate that the characteristics of the voting process itself impact the outcome more than community characteristics, which also differs from the results of previous analyses. The third essay in this dissertation is an extension of the first essay, and focuses on the impact of Oregon's land use regulations on the protection of land in riparian corridors and land that has been designated for exclusive farm use (EFU). Riparian corridors are protected with the use of Oregon Goal 5, which focuses on development of natural resource lands inside of UGBs, while EFU land is protected with the use of Oregon Goal 3, which focuses on protection of agricultural land at the county level. The LCT dataset that was used in the first essay is also used in this essay. EFU land by definition has no probability of development in the initial period. Land located in riparian corridors may also face different initial levels of protection than other land. We deal with this endogeneity, and also account for location inside or outside of a UGB, with the use of the difference -in-difference-in-differences estimator. This is an approach that has not been used to explore the effect of Oregon's land use regulations on these land categories. Most of the past studies that have examined the impact of land use planning on development of agricultural land in Oregon have relied on analysis of general trends and indicators, and have concluded that land use regulations have been successful in protecting this land. Previous research on riparian zone protection has focused on protection of aquatic wildlife, and for the most part has not examined the protection of riparian corridors inside of UGBs. The limited studies that have studied the effect of these regulations in UGBs have determined them to be effective in slowing, but not stopping, development in these areas. Overall, we find that Oregon's land use regulations have been successful in protecting both county level agricultural land and riparian corridors located inside of UGBs from development. It is less clear whether these regulations have protected riparian corridors located inside of UGBs from other anthropogenic uses. Title: Three essays on the effectiveness of Oregon's land-use planning system : economic analysis with quasi-experimental methods Author: Dempsey, Judith Oregon's land use planning system is often recognized as having been successful in its goals of limiting urban sprawl and protecting resource lands from development. However, it is difficult to quantify the impact of these regulations, because we cannot observe what would have happened in the absence of land use planning. The three essays in this dissertation explore the effects of Oregon's land use planning regulations on development patterns in the state, and also examine how the land use regulations are administered at the local level. The first essay in this dissertation asks if Oregon’s land use regulations have successfully restricted sprawl outside of urban areas. Urban containment policies, including Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs), are a common tool used by city planners to promote compact development. We analyze how well UGBs do in containing development using fine-scale GIS data on cities in Oregon. Earlier studies on UGBs yield mixed results, with some authors finding no effects of UGBs on housing market variables and urbanization rates and others finding significant effects. A challenge in measuring these effects is that the location of the UGB is unlikely to be an exogenous determinant of a land parcel's value for development. The panel structure of our dataset allows us to estimate the UGB's effect on the probability of development using a difference-in-difference estimator. This estimator controls for time-invariant unobservable variables and common temporal effects among parcels, thereby mitigating the potential for biased estimates due to the endogeneity of the UGB's location. We also pursue a novel approach to controlling for time-varying factors inspired by regression discontinuity design. We find that UGBs are effective in containing development in many of the Oregon cities we examine, although there are some cities in which development rates are the same inside and outside of the UGB. Our results show that we would greatly overstate the effects of the UGBs were we to evaluate cross-sectional differences in development rates, as is common in previous studies. Besides the creation of UGBs, another goal of Oregon's land use regulations is to encourage citizen involvement in the planning process. The second essay in this dissertation examines the use of voter annexation as a form of citizen involvement. More specifically, this paper addresses the following two questions. First, does voter annexation cause changes in city demographics and characteristics? Second, assuming that a city votes for amendments and annexations to the UGB and city limits, what factors impact the outcome of the vote? We analyze the first question using the method of propensity score matching, which has not previously been used to explore this topic. This allows us to account for the endogeneity that stems from the fact that cities with certain characteristics may be more likely to use voter annexation in the first place. The second question, which is only evaluated for cities that employ voter annexation, is analyzed with the use of the logit model. Oregon's land use regulations must be approved at the state level, but are administered locally. Therefore, unlike past studies, we are able to isolate specific differences in the way the program is administered, and are not evaluating the stringency of the program itself. Previous studies have found that voter-approved annexation causes developers to provide more public goods and increase the scale of development, thereby shifting community demographics. Once a land use decision is on the ballot, it is also noted that cities that are whiter, wealthier, and more liberal are more likely to pass referenda that promote preservation and restrict development. For the first question, we compare specific demographic indicators between the two groups of cities. Contrary to the results of previous studies, we find no effect of voter annexation on these indicators. Our results for the second question indicate that the characteristics of the voting process itself impact the outcome more than community characteristics, which also differs from the results of previous analyses. The third essay in this dissertation is an extension of the first essay, and focuses on the impact of Oregon's land use regulations on the protection of land in riparian corridors and land that has been designated for exclusive farm use (EFU). Riparian corridors are protected with the use of Oregon Goal 5, which focuses on development of natural resource lands inside of UGBs, while EFU land is protected with the use of Oregon Goal 3, which focuses on protection of agricultural land at the county level. The LCT dataset that was used in the first essay is also used in this essay. EFU land by definition has no probability of development in the initial period. Land located in riparian corridors may also face different initial levels of protection than other land. We deal with this endogeneity, and also account for location inside or outside of a UGB, with the use of the difference -in-difference-in-differences estimator. This is an approach that has not been used to explore the effect of Oregon's land use regulations on these land categories. Most of the past studies that have examined the impact of land use planning on development of agricultural land in Oregon have relied on analysis of general trends and indicators, and have concluded that land use regulations have been successful in protecting this land. Previous research on riparian zone protection has focused on protection of aquatic wildlife, and for the most part has not examined the protection of riparian corridors inside of UGBs. The limited studies that have studied the effect of these regulations in UGBs have determined them to be effective in slowing, but not stopping, development in these areas. Overall, we find that Oregon's land use regulations have been successful in protecting both county level agricultural land and riparian corridors located inside of UGBs from development. It is less clear whether these regulations have protected riparian corridors located inside of UGBs from other anthropogenic uses. Close

• 3. [Article] Determining relative benefits to communities from urban and agricultural land use change in Napa County, California

  Urban sprawl and the establishment of greenbelts to separate growing cities and towns has become a popular topic of conversation among land use professionals. Economists focus on urban growth in terms ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Determining relative benefits to communities from urban and agricultural land use change in Napa County, California Author: Bernard, Mark A. Urban sprawl and the establishment of greenbelts to separate growing cities and towns has become a popular topic of conversation among land use professionals. Economists focus on urban growth in terms of land rents and have sought market solutions such as transfers and purchases of development rights to slow this growth. Land use planners have offered alternative solutions in the form of conservation easements, land trusts and agricultural zoning restrictions. Few, if any, studies have taken a balance sheet approach to the preservation of greenbelts through strict market mechanisms. The value of fine wine has made the premium wine grape producing area of Napa County, California a good candidate for investigating how changes in agricultural and low density urban growth affect community income and expenses. The premium wine grape growing area of Napa County may offer a rare example of agricultural land rivaling urban land in value This study will demonstrate the fiscal viability of preserving wine grape production and related activities in Napa County through an analysis of urban and agricultural growth and revenue streams to communities resulting from changes in each land use. Scarce housing, rising land prices and economic growth, dynamics attributable to an influx of wealth driven by aesthetic beauty and cultural attributes, are manifestations of the popularity of Napa County and symbolize the challenges facing agricultural preservationists. Title: Determining relative benefits to communities from urban and agricultural land use change in Napa County, California Author: Bernard, Mark A. Urban sprawl and the establishment of greenbelts to separate growing cities and towns has become a popular topic of conversation among land use professionals. Economists focus on urban growth in terms of land rents and have sought market solutions such as transfers and purchases of development rights to slow this growth. Land use planners have offered alternative solutions in the form of conservation easements, land trusts and agricultural zoning restrictions. Few, if any, studies have taken a balance sheet approach to the preservation of greenbelts through strict market mechanisms. The value of fine wine has made the premium wine grape producing area of Napa County, California a good candidate for investigating how changes in agricultural and low density urban growth affect community income and expenses. The premium wine grape growing area of Napa County may offer a rare example of agricultural land rivaling urban land in value This study will demonstrate the fiscal viability of preserving wine grape production and related activities in Napa County through an analysis of urban and agricultural growth and revenue streams to communities resulting from changes in each land use. Scarce housing, rising land prices and economic growth, dynamics attributable to an influx of wealth driven by aesthetic beauty and cultural attributes, are manifestations of the popularity of Napa County and symbolize the challenges facing agricultural preservationists. Close

• 4. [Article] Pay or Waive: An Economic Assessment of Property Owner Compensation Laws in the U. S.

  This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, following peer review. The published article is copyrighted by the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Pay or Waive: An Economic Assessment of Property Owner Compensation Laws in the U. S. Author: Plantinga, Andrew J., Grout, Cyrus, Jaeger, William K. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, following peer review. The published article is copyrighted by the Author(s) and published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available online at: http://reep.oxfordjournals.org/content/8/1/103 Title: Pay or Waive: An Economic Assessment of Property Owner Compensation Laws in the U. S. Author: Plantinga, Andrew J., Grout, Cyrus, Jaeger, William K. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, following peer review. The published article is copyrighted by the Author(s) and published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available online at: http://reep.oxfordjournals.org/content/8/1/103 Close

• 5. [Article] A statistical analysis of Oregon's land-use ballot initiative

  This paper explores predictors of support for land-use ballot initiatives in Oregon. Possible predictors include a variety of socioeconomic, spatial, and political variables. Multiple least squares regressions ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A statistical analysis of Oregon's land-use ballot initiative Author: Fuller, Justin This paper explores predictors of support for land-use ballot initiatives in Oregon. Possible predictors include a variety of socioeconomic, spatial, and political variables. Multiple least squares regressions find that aggregate levels of education within a county and the proportion of a county's workforce engaged in farming or forestry occupations appear to play a strong role in county-level land-use ballot initiative results. These effects of education and industry sector employment are consistent across multiple elections. Real per capita income and party identification appear to play a role in specific elections and are not consistent predictors. Analysis from initiatives in 1970, 1976, 1978, 1982, 2000, and 2004 from Oregon are used to draw these conclusions. Title: A statistical analysis of Oregon's land-use ballot initiative Author: Fuller, Justin This paper explores predictors of support for land-use ballot initiatives in Oregon. Possible predictors include a variety of socioeconomic, spatial, and political variables. Multiple least squares regressions find that aggregate levels of education within a county and the proportion of a county's workforce engaged in farming or forestry occupations appear to play a strong role in county-level land-use ballot initiative results. These effects of education and industry sector employment are consistent across multiple elections. Real per capita income and party identification appear to play a role in specific elections and are not consistent predictors. Analysis from initiatives in 1970, 1976, 1978, 1982, 2000, and 2004 from Oregon are used to draw these conclusions. Close

• 6. [Article] Three essays on the economics of climate change, land use and carbon sequestration

  This dissertation's three essays explore the effects of climate change on land use changes in the U.S., how future land areas in all major land uses change by projecting land use at the regional scale ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Three essays on the economics of climate change, land use and carbon sequestration Author: Haim, David This dissertation's three essays explore the effects of climate change on land use changes in the U.S., how future land areas in all major land uses change by projecting land use at the regional scale under two IPCC climate change scenarios. Investigate how and what role should carbon sequestration plays as a mitigation strategy given uncertainty of climate impacts and, estimate how responsive the demand for and the supply of urban land is to changes in its price and how different climatic variables effect both the supply and the demand for urban land. The first essay uses an econometric model to project regional and national landuse changes in the U.S. under two IPCC climate change scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and projections from integrated assessment models of agricultural prices and agricultural and forestry yields. For both scenarios, we project large increases in urban land by the middle of the century, while the largest declines are in cropland area. Significant differences among regions in the projected patterns of land-use change are evident, including an expansion of forests in the Mountain and Plains regions with declines elsewhere. Comparisons to projections with no climate change effects on prices and yields reveal relatively small differences. Thus, our findings suggest that future land use patterns in the U.S. will be shaped largely by urbanization, with climate change having a relatively small influence. The second essay explores the optimal time path of carbon sequestration and carbon abatement in stabilizing CO₂ levels under uncertainty of climate impacts. We question the conventional wisdom that carbon sequestration should be used as a near term strategy by recognizing the fact that sequestration, unlike abatement, can actually remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. Two related models are examined: a deterministic fixed end point and finite time horizon model and a two-period sequential decision making model. In the latter, uncertainty regard the stabilization level of the atmospheric stock is resolved prior to the decision on how much to control the stock in the second period. Present value costs of abatement and sequestration are minimized subject to two state variables; the level of CO₂ stock in the atmosphere and the stock of suitable land that can be converted to forestland. Both models show that carbon sequestration may play an important role in climate change mitigation under certain conditions. In addition, the stochastic model finds that an increase in the variability of climate impacts results in higher rates of abatement today while leaving some sequestration capacity as a safety value for the future. In the third essay, a structural model of the demand for and the supply of urban land is estimated using panel data on 3032 counties in the contiguous U.S for the four time periods 1982, 1987, 1992 and, 1997. A two-step estimation procedure is applied. In the first step, fixed effects and time-varying variables are used to estimate the structural system of demand and supply equations via Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) procedure. This yields consistent estimates of the structural equations' parameters. The model is then extended to a hierarchical linear model. The contribution of observed time-invariant variables in explaining counties fixed effects is investigated. Among these variables are climatic and geographical variables that are assumed to affect both the supply and the demand for urban land, though in potentially different ways. Results suggest inelastic supply and demand at the national and regional levels with the exception of an elastic demand in the West region. Examined climatic and geographical variables are found to have significant effects on both the supply of and the demand for urban land. Title: Three essays on the economics of climate change, land use and carbon sequestration Author: Haim, David This dissertation's three essays explore the effects of climate change on land use changes in the U.S., how future land areas in all major land uses change by projecting land use at the regional scale under two IPCC climate change scenarios. Investigate how and what role should carbon sequestration plays as a mitigation strategy given uncertainty of climate impacts and, estimate how responsive the demand for and the supply of urban land is to changes in its price and how different climatic variables effect both the supply and the demand for urban land. The first essay uses an econometric model to project regional and national landuse changes in the U.S. under two IPCC climate change scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and projections from integrated assessment models of agricultural prices and agricultural and forestry yields. For both scenarios, we project large increases in urban land by the middle of the century, while the largest declines are in cropland area. Significant differences among regions in the projected patterns of land-use change are evident, including an expansion of forests in the Mountain and Plains regions with declines elsewhere. Comparisons to projections with no climate change effects on prices and yields reveal relatively small differences. Thus, our findings suggest that future land use patterns in the U.S. will be shaped largely by urbanization, with climate change having a relatively small influence. The second essay explores the optimal time path of carbon sequestration and carbon abatement in stabilizing CO₂ levels under uncertainty of climate impacts. We question the conventional wisdom that carbon sequestration should be used as a near term strategy by recognizing the fact that sequestration, unlike abatement, can actually remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. Two related models are examined: a deterministic fixed end point and finite time horizon model and a two-period sequential decision making model. In the latter, uncertainty regard the stabilization level of the atmospheric stock is resolved prior to the decision on how much to control the stock in the second period. Present value costs of abatement and sequestration are minimized subject to two state variables; the level of CO₂ stock in the atmosphere and the stock of suitable land that can be converted to forestland. Both models show that carbon sequestration may play an important role in climate change mitigation under certain conditions. In addition, the stochastic model finds that an increase in the variability of climate impacts results in higher rates of abatement today while leaving some sequestration capacity as a safety value for the future. In the third essay, a structural model of the demand for and the supply of urban land is estimated using panel data on 3032 counties in the contiguous U.S for the four time periods 1982, 1987, 1992 and, 1997. A two-step estimation procedure is applied. In the first step, fixed effects and time-varying variables are used to estimate the structural system of demand and supply equations via Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) procedure. This yields consistent estimates of the structural equations' parameters. The model is then extended to a hierarchical linear model. The contribution of observed time-invariant variables in explaining counties fixed effects is investigated. Among these variables are climatic and geographical variables that are assumed to affect both the supply and the demand for urban land, though in potentially different ways. Results suggest inelastic supply and demand at the national and regional levels with the exception of an elastic demand in the West region. Examined climatic and geographical variables are found to have significant effects on both the supply of and the demand for urban land. Close

• 7. [Article] The effects of land use on mineral flat wetland hydrologic processes in lowland agricultural catchments

  Hydrologic processes within mineral flat wetlands, along with their connections to groundwater and downstream surface water in lowland agricultural catchments are poorly understood, particularly under ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The effects of land use on mineral flat wetland hydrologic processes in lowland agricultural catchments Author: Marshall, Sarah M. (Sarah Marie) Hydrologic processes within mineral flat wetlands, along with their connections to groundwater and downstream surface water in lowland agricultural catchments are poorly understood, particularly under different land uses. In the three field studies included in this thesis, we examined infiltration, wetland hydroperiod, groundwater recharge dynamics, surface runoff generation, and water quality in mineral flat wetlands using a combination of soil and hydrometric measurements, stable isotope tracers, and water chemistry analysis. Our overarching objectives were to examine, for mineral flat wetlands under native prairie, farmed grassland, and restored prairie land cover: 1) how different land management influences infiltration and wetland hydroperiod at the plot scale, 2) the effects of land use on seasonal groundwater-surface water dynamics at the field scale, and 3) seasonal variation in runoff sources and nutrient transport from native prairie and farmed wetlands at the small catchment scale. At the plot scale, our results suggest that edaphic factors, particularly those related to soil structure, are strongly associated with wetland infiltration and overall hydroperiod across least-altered prairie, farmed, and restored prairie mineral flat wetlands. The hydroperiod metrics we examined were generally more sensitive to level of site disturbance than land use alone. At the field scale, our results indicate that, in spite of land use differences and slight variations in soil stratigraphy, many similarities exist in overall wetland hydroperiod, water sources and evaporation rates for mineral flat wetlands in the Willamette Valley lowlands. Isotopic evidence suggests that the greatest degree of groundwater-surface water mixing occurs in the upper 0.5 m of the saturated soil profile across sites under all land uses. Finally, at the small catchment scale, farmed wetland runoff was isotopically similar to field surface water for most of the wet season, indicating that saturation excess was an important runoff generation process. Prairie wetland runoff was isotopically similar to upstream water throughout the winter, and briefly similar to shallow groundwater and surface water within the wetland in mid-spring. Throughout the wet season, elevated nitrate, sulfate, and chloride concentrations were observed in groundwater and surface water at the farm site, and deeper groundwater at the prairie site. Upstream-downstream runoff chemistry remained similar throughout the wet season at the prairie site. Farm site runoff chemistry reflected the dominant water source within the farm field throughout the wet season. Our findings suggest that, while surface water pathways dominate runoff from wetland flats under farm land use, large wetland flat fields have a high potential to absorb, store, and process nutrients and agrochemicals from on-site and nearby off-site chemical inputs. Mineral flats that maintain wetland hydrology in spite of farm use represent a unique balance between agricultural production and preservation of some of the water storage and delay, and water quality-related ecosystem services once provided at a much larger scale in the Willamette Valley lowlands. We anticipate that results of this work will lead to better understanding of key site-scale edaphic and hydrologic factors to consider when prioritizing and managing sites for restoration, and how site disturbance under a variety of land uses may impact different hydrologic processes and components of the wetland hydroperiod. Additionally, our results provide a better understanding of how land use affects seasonal runoff generation processes in mineral flat wetlands, and the water quality implications of modifying groundwater and surface water connectivity between mineral flats and surrounding surface drainage networks. Title: The effects of land use on mineral flat wetland hydrologic processes in lowland agricultural catchments Author: Marshall, Sarah M. (Sarah Marie) Hydrologic processes within mineral flat wetlands, along with their connections to groundwater and downstream surface water in lowland agricultural catchments are poorly understood, particularly under different land uses. In the three field studies included in this thesis, we examined infiltration, wetland hydroperiod, groundwater recharge dynamics, surface runoff generation, and water quality in mineral flat wetlands using a combination of soil and hydrometric measurements, stable isotope tracers, and water chemistry analysis. Our overarching objectives were to examine, for mineral flat wetlands under native prairie, farmed grassland, and restored prairie land cover: 1) how different land management influences infiltration and wetland hydroperiod at the plot scale, 2) the effects of land use on seasonal groundwater-surface water dynamics at the field scale, and 3) seasonal variation in runoff sources and nutrient transport from native prairie and farmed wetlands at the small catchment scale. At the plot scale, our results suggest that edaphic factors, particularly those related to soil structure, are strongly associated with wetland infiltration and overall hydroperiod across least-altered prairie, farmed, and restored prairie mineral flat wetlands. The hydroperiod metrics we examined were generally more sensitive to level of site disturbance than land use alone. At the field scale, our results indicate that, in spite of land use differences and slight variations in soil stratigraphy, many similarities exist in overall wetland hydroperiod, water sources and evaporation rates for mineral flat wetlands in the Willamette Valley lowlands. Isotopic evidence suggests that the greatest degree of groundwater-surface water mixing occurs in the upper 0.5 m of the saturated soil profile across sites under all land uses. Finally, at the small catchment scale, farmed wetland runoff was isotopically similar to field surface water for most of the wet season, indicating that saturation excess was an important runoff generation process. Prairie wetland runoff was isotopically similar to upstream water throughout the winter, and briefly similar to shallow groundwater and surface water within the wetland in mid-spring. Throughout the wet season, elevated nitrate, sulfate, and chloride concentrations were observed in groundwater and surface water at the farm site, and deeper groundwater at the prairie site. Upstream-downstream runoff chemistry remained similar throughout the wet season at the prairie site. Farm site runoff chemistry reflected the dominant water source within the farm field throughout the wet season. Our findings suggest that, while surface water pathways dominate runoff from wetland flats under farm land use, large wetland flat fields have a high potential to absorb, store, and process nutrients and agrochemicals from on-site and nearby off-site chemical inputs. Mineral flats that maintain wetland hydrology in spite of farm use represent a unique balance between agricultural production and preservation of some of the water storage and delay, and water quality-related ecosystem services once provided at a much larger scale in the Willamette Valley lowlands. We anticipate that results of this work will lead to better understanding of key site-scale edaphic and hydrologic factors to consider when prioritizing and managing sites for restoration, and how site disturbance under a variety of land uses may impact different hydrologic processes and components of the wetland hydroperiod. Additionally, our results provide a better understanding of how land use affects seasonal runoff generation processes in mineral flat wetlands, and the water quality implications of modifying groundwater and surface water connectivity between mineral flats and surrounding surface drainage networks. Close

• 8. [Article] The Influence of Measure 37 claims on the shift in vote between Measure 37 and Measure 49

  The passage of Measure 37 in 2004 was met with a great deal of controversy as a number of voters claimed the implications of the Measure did not represent their intentions for supporting the legislation. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Influence of Measure 37 claims on the shift in vote between Measure 37 and Measure 49 Author: Chrostek, Garrett The passage of Measure 37 in 2004 was met with a great deal of controversy as a number of voters claimed the implications of the Measure did not represent their intentions for supporting the legislation. Namely, significant opposition was aimed towards the Measure 37 claim which offered landowners financial compensation or waivers from land use regulations that reduced the value of their property. As a result, voters subsequently passed Measure 49 which drastically curtailed the size and scope of the Measure 37 claim. Both measures experienced strong support and passed with more than 60% of the vote. This paper seeks to identify voting patterns by examining those factors which led to the divergent outcomes between the two elections. A review of the literature reveals two primary theories for explaining the differing outcomes. The first is premised on the concept of NIMBY (not in my backyard) in which voters in areas with high concentrations of Measure 37 claims used their vote to resist unfavorable developments associated with Measure 37 claims. A second theory is rooted in traditional regional and partisan differences, which characterize the “two states” view of Oregon politics. This paper evaluates these theories by developing testable hypothesis to predict the “shift in vote” at the county and precinct levels of analysis. Results from this study will offer a better understanding of voting behavior on this issue and offer suggestions to policymakers looking to improve voter satisfaction with Oregon’s land use system. Title: The Influence of Measure 37 claims on the shift in vote between Measure 37 and Measure 49 Author: Chrostek, Garrett The passage of Measure 37 in 2004 was met with a great deal of controversy as a number of voters claimed the implications of the Measure did not represent their intentions for supporting the legislation. Namely, significant opposition was aimed towards the Measure 37 claim which offered landowners financial compensation or waivers from land use regulations that reduced the value of their property. As a result, voters subsequently passed Measure 49 which drastically curtailed the size and scope of the Measure 37 claim. Both measures experienced strong support and passed with more than 60% of the vote. This paper seeks to identify voting patterns by examining those factors which led to the divergent outcomes between the two elections. A review of the literature reveals two primary theories for explaining the differing outcomes. The first is premised on the concept of NIMBY (not in my backyard) in which voters in areas with high concentrations of Measure 37 claims used their vote to resist unfavorable developments associated with Measure 37 claims. A second theory is rooted in traditional regional and partisan differences, which characterize the “two states” view of Oregon politics. This paper evaluates these theories by developing testable hypothesis to predict the “shift in vote” at the county and precinct levels of analysis. Results from this study will offer a better understanding of voting behavior on this issue and offer suggestions to policymakers looking to improve voter satisfaction with Oregon’s land use system. Close

• 9. [Article] Essays on the interactions between land use, natural amenity and wildfire risk

  It is essential to study the relationship between environmental features and human land-use activities that can provide a better understanding of human-environment interactions. In a response, this dissertation ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Essays on the interactions between land use, natural amenity and wildfire risk Author: Xu, Wenchao It is essential to study the relationship between environmental features and human land-use activities that can provide a better understanding of human-environment interactions. In a response, this dissertation addresses the human-environment issues from different perspectives in three essays. The first essay conducts an integrated analysis to investigate the impacts of human activities and environmental features on wildfire occurrence at the Wildland-Urban Interface in a changing climate. We focus on the impacts of land use changes as measured by their density, connectivity, and mix. The conceptual model builds on a theoretical framework developed by Woodward (1987) and Neilson (1995) that characterizes the functioning mechanism of ecosystems. The empirical models identify the key factors that influence wildfires. Hypotheses are tested to demonstrate the spatial heterogeneity of human land-use impacts on wildfires. Results can inform the design of policies that aim to identify community vulnerabilities, reduce wildfire uncertainties, strengthen firewise community development, and inform future land-use decision making in response to wildfire threats. The second essay analyzes the impacts of wildfire risk on urban development. It builds on and expands the monocentric-city framework developed by Wu (2006) and Wu (2010) by introducing wildfire risk into this model. We calibrate the model and examine the urban spatial profiles changes under different assumptions of wildfire risks and natural amenities. We find that wildfire risk can take on various aspects of urban spatial profiles at a much broad scale that go beyond the fire-prone areas and affects both households and public decision sectors. Even without inconsistency in fire-zone designation policy, over-development can occur in fire-hazardous area. The third essay models the role of amenity in interregional migration and spatial distribution of economic activities. Extending the new economic geography model of Helpman (1998) by including locational amenities, we present a multi-market equilibrium framework that includes consumption, production, and trade. Results suggest that the effects of amenities are significantly affected by household preferences, trade barriers, and other regional economic characteristics. This study contributes to the amenity-driven migration literatures and informs the debate about the effect of amenities on interregional migrations and regional economic development. Title: Essays on the interactions between land use, natural amenity and wildfire risk Author: Xu, Wenchao It is essential to study the relationship between environmental features and human land-use activities that can provide a better understanding of human-environment interactions. In a response, this dissertation addresses the human-environment issues from different perspectives in three essays. The first essay conducts an integrated analysis to investigate the impacts of human activities and environmental features on wildfire occurrence at the Wildland-Urban Interface in a changing climate. We focus on the impacts of land use changes as measured by their density, connectivity, and mix. The conceptual model builds on a theoretical framework developed by Woodward (1987) and Neilson (1995) that characterizes the functioning mechanism of ecosystems. The empirical models identify the key factors that influence wildfires. Hypotheses are tested to demonstrate the spatial heterogeneity of human land-use impacts on wildfires. Results can inform the design of policies that aim to identify community vulnerabilities, reduce wildfire uncertainties, strengthen firewise community development, and inform future land-use decision making in response to wildfire threats. The second essay analyzes the impacts of wildfire risk on urban development. It builds on and expands the monocentric-city framework developed by Wu (2006) and Wu (2010) by introducing wildfire risk into this model. We calibrate the model and examine the urban spatial profiles changes under different assumptions of wildfire risks and natural amenities. We find that wildfire risk can take on various aspects of urban spatial profiles at a much broad scale that go beyond the fire-prone areas and affects both households and public decision sectors. Even without inconsistency in fire-zone designation policy, over-development can occur in fire-hazardous area. The third essay models the role of amenity in interregional migration and spatial distribution of economic activities. Extending the new economic geography model of Helpman (1998) by including locational amenities, we present a multi-market equilibrium framework that includes consumption, production, and trade. Results suggest that the effects of amenities are significantly affected by household preferences, trade barriers, and other regional economic characteristics. This study contributes to the amenity-driven migration literatures and informs the debate about the effect of amenities on interregional migrations and regional economic development. Close