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• 41. [Article] TMDLS: Statistical Correlations or Mechanistic Modeling?

  Western Idaho and Eastern Oregon, determinations of the assimilative capacity of the system and the impact of pollutant reduction strategies has been performed using both a statistical-correlation approach ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: TMDLS: Statistical Correlations or Mechanistic Modeling? Author: Wells, Scott A., Cole, Thomas M. Year: 2002 Western Idaho and Eastern Oregon, determinations of the assimilative capacity of the system and the impact of pollutant reduction strategies has been performed using both a statistical-correlation approach and a mechanistic modeling approach. The system included the Lower Snake River, Brownlee Reservoir, Oxbow Reservoir, and Hells Canyon Reservoir with the focus was on Brownlee Reservoir. The statistical approach used on Brownlee Reservoir divided the system into riverine and lacustrine zones. Field data were then averaged over season and location to provide statistical correlations, such as between total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (chl a), between an anoxic factor (AF) and TP, and between a hypoxic factor (HP) and TP. The anoxic factor is defined as the number of days when dissolved oxygen was less than 2 mg/l and the hypoxic factor was defined as the number of days when dissolved oxygen was less than 6.5 mg/l. The mechanistic approach used a two-dimensional, unsteady, hydrodynamic and water quality model called CE-QUAL-W2. The model was calibrated to field data over a three year period for 1992 (a low flow year), 1995 (an average flow year), and 1997 (a high flow year). Some of the important questions that the TMDL process was to answer included the following. What level of TP is necessary in the river coming into Brownlee Reservoir to reduce the number of days of hypoxia in the reservoir? What are the causes of low2 dissolved oxygen in Brownlee Reservoir and what management strategies can be implemented to improve water quality? This paper examines the strengths and weaknesses of answering management questions using these two approaches. Recommendations are suggested for answering assimilative capacity questions that arise in TMDL studies. Title: TMDLS: Statistical Correlations or Mechanistic Modeling? Author: Wells, Scott A., Cole, Thomas M. Year: 2002 Western Idaho and Eastern Oregon, determinations of the assimilative capacity of the system and the impact of pollutant reduction strategies has been performed using both a statistical-correlation approach and a mechanistic modeling approach. The system included the Lower Snake River, Brownlee Reservoir, Oxbow Reservoir, and Hells Canyon Reservoir with the focus was on Brownlee Reservoir. The statistical approach used on Brownlee Reservoir divided the system into riverine and lacustrine zones. Field data were then averaged over season and location to provide statistical correlations, such as between total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (chl a), between an anoxic factor (AF) and TP, and between a hypoxic factor (HP) and TP. The anoxic factor is defined as the number of days when dissolved oxygen was less than 2 mg/l and the hypoxic factor was defined as the number of days when dissolved oxygen was less than 6.5 mg/l. The mechanistic approach used a two-dimensional, unsteady, hydrodynamic and water quality model called CE-QUAL-W2. The model was calibrated to field data over a three year period for 1992 (a low flow year), 1995 (an average flow year), and 1997 (a high flow year). Some of the important questions that the TMDL process was to answer included the following. What level of TP is necessary in the river coming into Brownlee Reservoir to reduce the number of days of hypoxia in the reservoir? What are the causes of low2 dissolved oxygen in Brownlee Reservoir and what management strategies can be implemented to improve water quality? This paper examines the strengths and weaknesses of answering management questions using these two approaches. Recommendations are suggested for answering assimilative capacity questions that arise in TMDL studies. Close

• 42. [Article] Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades

  This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Copernicus Publications and can be found at: http://publications.copernicus.org/.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades Author: Sproles, E. A., Nolin, A.W., Rittger, K., Painter, T. H. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Copernicus Publications and can be found at: http://publications.copernicus.org/. Title: Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades Author: Sproles, E. A., Nolin, A.W., Rittger, K., Painter, T. H. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Copernicus Publications and can be found at: http://publications.copernicus.org/. Close

• 43. [Article] Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales

  Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales Author: Madadgar, Shahrbanou Year: 2014 Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. Reliable forecast of hydrologic variables, in general, is a preliminary requirement for appropriate planning of water resources and developing effective allocation policies. This study aims at developing new techniques with specific probabilistic features to improve the reliability of hydrologic forecasts, particularly the drought forecasts. The drought status in the future is determined by certain hydrologic variables that are basically estimated by the hydrologic models with rather simple to complex structures. Since the predictions of hydrologic models are prone to different sources of uncertainties, there have been several techniques examined during past several years which generally attempt to combine the predictions of single (multiple) hydrologic models to generate an ensemble of hydrologic forecasts addressing the inherent uncertainties. However, the imperfect structure of hydrologic models usually lead to systematic bias of hydrologic predictions that further appears in the forecast ensembles. This study proposes a post-processing method that is applied to the raw forecast of hydrologic variables and can develop the entire distribution of forecast around the initial single-value prediction. To establish the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast, a group of multivariate distribution functions, the so-called copula functions, are incorporated in the post-processing procedure. The performance of the new post-processing technique is tested on 2500 hypothetical case studies and the streamflow forecast of Sprague River Basin in southern Oregon. Verified by some deterministic and probabilistic verification measures, the method of Quantile Mapping as a traditional post-processing technique cannot generate the qualified forecasts as comparing with the copula-based method. The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies. Title: Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales Author: Madadgar, Shahrbanou Year: 2014 Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. Reliable forecast of hydrologic variables, in general, is a preliminary requirement for appropriate planning of water resources and developing effective allocation policies. This study aims at developing new techniques with specific probabilistic features to improve the reliability of hydrologic forecasts, particularly the drought forecasts. The drought status in the future is determined by certain hydrologic variables that are basically estimated by the hydrologic models with rather simple to complex structures. Since the predictions of hydrologic models are prone to different sources of uncertainties, there have been several techniques examined during past several years which generally attempt to combine the predictions of single (multiple) hydrologic models to generate an ensemble of hydrologic forecasts addressing the inherent uncertainties. However, the imperfect structure of hydrologic models usually lead to systematic bias of hydrologic predictions that further appears in the forecast ensembles. This study proposes a post-processing method that is applied to the raw forecast of hydrologic variables and can develop the entire distribution of forecast around the initial single-value prediction. To establish the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast, a group of multivariate distribution functions, the so-called copula functions, are incorporated in the post-processing procedure. The performance of the new post-processing technique is tested on 2500 hypothetical case studies and the streamflow forecast of Sprague River Basin in southern Oregon. Verified by some deterministic and probabilistic verification measures, the method of Quantile Mapping as a traditional post-processing technique cannot generate the qualified forecasts as comparing with the copula-based method. The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies. Close

• 44. [Article] Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon

  The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon Author: Weatherford, Jonathan Michael Year: 2015 The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream relocation, and the formation of biologically diverse fens and seasonal wetlands. The pumice aquifer at Round Meadow, an 8.6 km2 basin, hosts both a fen and seasonally ponded wetlands. The Round Meadow watershed lies within a closed basin between the upper Klamath and Deschutes river basins. As the highest meadow at Walker Rim, it is a relatively well-constrained system to study the effects of hydrological disruption. A water budget was calculated for the basin, hydraulic conductivity was evaluated for the three main sediment layers in the meadow, recharge sources and evaporative trends were studied using stable isotope analysis, and aquifer residence times were estimated using CFC tracer water age dating. Water year 2014 was a drought year and observation of the system under stressed conditions allowed discrimination of four independently functioning components of the hydrogeologic system. These were the meadow, which is by far the largest component in terms of water storage, the fen where iron cementation and up to 1 m of peat holds water in a berm above the meadow, three springs which are sourced from deeper groundwater hosted in the bedrock which underlies the pumice deposit, and the outflow area. In all cases, the aquifer material is pumice, but the influence of the pre-eruption landscape and post-eruption modifications of the aquifer material have resulted in partial isolation of the components. The water budget analysis indicated that the basin lost 44 cm of water storage during WY 2014. Hydraulic conductivity values of 1x10-6, 2x10-2, and 4x10-5 cm/s, were determined for the diatomaceous silt underlying the pumice, the Plinian pumice fall aquifer, and for the diatomaceous silt overlying the pumice, respectively. The pumice is characterized as a perched, weakly confined aquifer and residence times in the pumice are much longer (decades) than for water near the surface of the meadow. Water discharging at the springs is isotopically different (lighter) than either the surface water or groundwater in the pumice aquifer. The fen at Round Meadow appears dependent on seasonal precipitation to recharge water, and responds to fluctuations in annual precipitation. The wetland meadows are volumetrically the main water-storing features at Round Meadow, and these are not homogenous features, but a combination of discrete components. Title: Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon Author: Weatherford, Jonathan Michael Year: 2015 The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream relocation, and the formation of biologically diverse fens and seasonal wetlands. The pumice aquifer at Round Meadow, an 8.6 km2 basin, hosts both a fen and seasonally ponded wetlands. The Round Meadow watershed lies within a closed basin between the upper Klamath and Deschutes river basins. As the highest meadow at Walker Rim, it is a relatively well-constrained system to study the effects of hydrological disruption. A water budget was calculated for the basin, hydraulic conductivity was evaluated for the three main sediment layers in the meadow, recharge sources and evaporative trends were studied using stable isotope analysis, and aquifer residence times were estimated using CFC tracer water age dating. Water year 2014 was a drought year and observation of the system under stressed conditions allowed discrimination of four independently functioning components of the hydrogeologic system. These were the meadow, which is by far the largest component in terms of water storage, the fen where iron cementation and up to 1 m of peat holds water in a berm above the meadow, three springs which are sourced from deeper groundwater hosted in the bedrock which underlies the pumice deposit, and the outflow area. In all cases, the aquifer material is pumice, but the influence of the pre-eruption landscape and post-eruption modifications of the aquifer material have resulted in partial isolation of the components. The water budget analysis indicated that the basin lost 44 cm of water storage during WY 2014. Hydraulic conductivity values of 1x10-6, 2x10-2, and 4x10-5 cm/s, were determined for the diatomaceous silt underlying the pumice, the Plinian pumice fall aquifer, and for the diatomaceous silt overlying the pumice, respectively. The pumice is characterized as a perched, weakly confined aquifer and residence times in the pumice are much longer (decades) than for water near the surface of the meadow. Water discharging at the springs is isotopically different (lighter) than either the surface water or groundwater in the pumice aquifer. The fen at Round Meadow appears dependent on seasonal precipitation to recharge water, and responds to fluctuations in annual precipitation. The wetland meadows are volumetrically the main water-storing features at Round Meadow, and these are not homogenous features, but a combination of discrete components. Close