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• 1. [Article] Late Holocene Tsunami Deposits at Salt Creek, Washington, USA

  We interpret two thin sand layers in the estuarine marsh at Salt Creek, on the southern shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, as the products of tsunamis propagated by earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Late Holocene Tsunami Deposits at Salt Creek, Washington, USA Author: Hutchinson, Ian, Peterson, Curt D., Sterling, Sarah L. Year: 2013 We interpret two thin sand layers in the estuarine marsh at Salt Creek, on the southern shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, as the products of tsunamis propagated by earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. The sand layers extend for about 60 m along the left bank of the creek about 800 m from the mouth, and can be traced to the base of a nearby upland area. One layer is exposed in the creek bank about 400 m further upstream, but they are only patchily distributed in the rest of the central area of the marsh. Both layers contain brackish-marine epipsammic diatoms. The lower sand layer marks a sharp contact between intertidal peaty mud and overlying mud, perhaps reflecting modest coseismic subsidence in association with tsunami deposition, but little or no change in the bracketing sediment occurs in association with the upper sand layer. The ages of the sand layers are not closely constrained, but were most likely deposited by tsunamis generated by great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone about 1650 and 1300 years ago. The Cascadia great earthquake of AD1700 may have induced slight subsidence in the marsh, but no tsunami deposit was detected at the inferred contact. The absence of deposits from the marsh immediately inland of the 4 m-high barrier beach indicates that the largest tsunamis in the late Holocene at this site have not overtopped the barrier, which suggests that these tsunamis were likely only 2-3 m high. Title: Late Holocene Tsunami Deposits at Salt Creek, Washington, USA Author: Hutchinson, Ian, Peterson, Curt D., Sterling, Sarah L. Year: 2013 We interpret two thin sand layers in the estuarine marsh at Salt Creek, on the southern shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, as the products of tsunamis propagated by earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. The sand layers extend for about 60 m along the left bank of the creek about 800 m from the mouth, and can be traced to the base of a nearby upland area. One layer is exposed in the creek bank about 400 m further upstream, but they are only patchily distributed in the rest of the central area of the marsh. Both layers contain brackish-marine epipsammic diatoms. The lower sand layer marks a sharp contact between intertidal peaty mud and overlying mud, perhaps reflecting modest coseismic subsidence in association with tsunami deposition, but little or no change in the bracketing sediment occurs in association with the upper sand layer. The ages of the sand layers are not closely constrained, but were most likely deposited by tsunamis generated by great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone about 1650 and 1300 years ago. The Cascadia great earthquake of AD1700 may have induced slight subsidence in the marsh, but no tsunami deposit was detected at the inferred contact. The absence of deposits from the marsh immediately inland of the 4 m-high barrier beach indicates that the largest tsunamis in the late Holocene at this site have not overtopped the barrier, which suggests that these tsunamis were likely only 2-3 m high. Close

• 2. [Article] Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA

  A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Kristensen, Kurt, Minor, Rick Year: 2014 A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. Eight cutbank sites are reported that show evidence of large-scale fluidization features (≥10 cm width) including clastic sand dikes and intruded sand sills in Holocene overbank mud deposits. The targeted alluvial sequences, and hosted paleoliquefaction records, are of late Holocene age, as based on radiocarbon dating, flood silt thickness (≤4 m thickness), and minimal consolidation of dike sand (~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2 unconfined compressive strength). Two of the paleoliquefaction sites, which are separated by 150 km distance, overlap in age (175 - 500 yr BP) with the last great megathrust rupture (Mw 8.5 - 9.0) in the Cascadia margin, dated at AD 1700. The scarcity of exposed late Holocene paleoliquefaction sites in the Willamette River cutbanks motivated subsurface searches for thick basal sand deposits and overlying fluidization features, using floodplain geomorphological analyses, ground penetrating radar, and remote pole-camera scans of deep trench walls (3 - 4 m depth). The onset of large-scale fluidization features occurred in overbank mud deposits (2 - 3 m thickness) above unconsolidated sand bodies (≥2 m thickness) with unconfined compressive strengths of ~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2. We recommend geomorphically-targeted subsurface explorations rather than traditional cutbank searches for evidence of coseismic paleoliquefaction in high-gradient river valley systems. Title: Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Kristensen, Kurt, Minor, Rick Year: 2014 A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. Eight cutbank sites are reported that show evidence of large-scale fluidization features (≥10 cm width) including clastic sand dikes and intruded sand sills in Holocene overbank mud deposits. The targeted alluvial sequences, and hosted paleoliquefaction records, are of late Holocene age, as based on radiocarbon dating, flood silt thickness (≤4 m thickness), and minimal consolidation of dike sand (~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2 unconfined compressive strength). Two of the paleoliquefaction sites, which are separated by 150 km distance, overlap in age (175 - 500 yr BP) with the last great megathrust rupture (Mw 8.5 - 9.0) in the Cascadia margin, dated at AD 1700. The scarcity of exposed late Holocene paleoliquefaction sites in the Willamette River cutbanks motivated subsurface searches for thick basal sand deposits and overlying fluidization features, using floodplain geomorphological analyses, ground penetrating radar, and remote pole-camera scans of deep trench walls (3 - 4 m depth). The onset of large-scale fluidization features occurred in overbank mud deposits (2 - 3 m thickness) above unconsolidated sand bodies (≥2 m thickness) with unconfined compressive strengths of ~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2. We recommend geomorphically-targeted subsurface explorations rather than traditional cutbank searches for evidence of coseismic paleoliquefaction in high-gradient river valley systems. Close

• 3. [Article] A 2-D Magnetotelluric Investigation of the Cascadia Subduction Zone

  39 pages. A thesis presented to the Department of Physics and the Clark Honors College of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Bachelor of Science, Spring 2...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A 2-D Magnetotelluric Investigation of the Cascadia Subduction Zone Author: Wogan, Nicholas Year: 2016 39 pages. A thesis presented to the Department of Physics and the Clark Honors College of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Bachelor of Science, Spring 2016. Title: A 2-D Magnetotelluric Investigation of the Cascadia Subduction Zone Author: Wogan, Nicholas Year: 2016 39 pages. A thesis presented to the Department of Physics and the Clark Honors College of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Bachelor of Science, Spring 2016. Close

• 4. [Article] Variation in Seismic-Wave Attenuation Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Determined from Tectonic Tremor

  Single page poster

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Variation in Seismic-Wave Attenuation Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Determined from Tectonic Tremor Author: Littel, Geena, Baltay, Annemarie Year: 2017 Single page poster Title: Variation in Seismic-Wave Attenuation Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Determined from Tectonic Tremor Author: Littel, Geena, Baltay, Annemarie Year: 2017 Single page poster Close

• 5. [Article] A Morphologic Proxy for Debris Flow Erosion With Application to the Earthquake Deformation Cycle, Cascadia Subduction Zone, USA

  In unglaciated steeplands, valley reaches dominated by debris flow scour and incision set landscape form as they often account for > 80% of valley network length and relief. While hillslope and fluvial ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Morphologic Proxy for Debris Flow Erosion With Application to the Earthquake Deformation Cycle, Cascadia Subduction Zone, USA Author: Penserini, Brian D., Roering, Joshua J., Strieg, Ashley Year: 2017 In unglaciated steeplands, valley reaches dominated by debris flow scour and incision set landscape form as they often account for > 80% of valley network length and relief. While hillslope and fluvial process models have frequently been combined with digital topography to develop morphologic proxies for erosion rate and drainage divide migration, debris-flow-dominated networks, despite their ubiquity, have not been exploited for this purpose. Here, we applied an empirical function that describes how slope-area data systematically deviate from so-called fluvial power-law behavior at small drainage areas. Using airborne LiDAR data for 83 small (~ 1 km2) catchments in the western Oregon Coast Range, we quantified variation in model parameters and observed that the curvature of the power-law scaling deviation varies with catchment-averaged erosion rate estimated from cosmogenic nuclides in stream sediments. Given consistent climate and lithology across our study area and assuming steady erosion, we used this calibrated denudation-morphology relationship to map spatial patterns of long-term uplift for our study catchments. By combining our predicted pattern of long-term uplift rate with paleoseismic and geodetic (tide gauge, GPS, and leveling) data, we estimated the spatial distribution of coseismic subsidence experienced during megathrust earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Our estimates of coseismic subsidence near the coast (0.4 to 0.7 m for earthquake recurrence intervals of 300 to 500 years) agree with field measurements from numerous stratigraphic studies. Our results also demonstrate that coseismic subsidence decreases inland to negligible values > 25 km from the coast, reflecting the diminishing influence of the earthquake deformation cycle on vertical changes of the interior coastal ranges. More generally, our results demonstrate that debris flow valley networks serve as highly localized, yet broadly distributed indicators of erosion (and rock uplift), making them invaluable for mapping crustal deformation and landscape adjustment. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Title: A Morphologic Proxy for Debris Flow Erosion With Application to the Earthquake Deformation Cycle, Cascadia Subduction Zone, USA Author: Penserini, Brian D., Roering, Joshua J., Strieg, Ashley Year: 2017 In unglaciated steeplands, valley reaches dominated by debris flow scour and incision set landscape form as they often account for > 80% of valley network length and relief. While hillslope and fluvial process models have frequently been combined with digital topography to develop morphologic proxies for erosion rate and drainage divide migration, debris-flow-dominated networks, despite their ubiquity, have not been exploited for this purpose. Here, we applied an empirical function that describes how slope-area data systematically deviate from so-called fluvial power-law behavior at small drainage areas. Using airborne LiDAR data for 83 small (~ 1 km2) catchments in the western Oregon Coast Range, we quantified variation in model parameters and observed that the curvature of the power-law scaling deviation varies with catchment-averaged erosion rate estimated from cosmogenic nuclides in stream sediments. Given consistent climate and lithology across our study area and assuming steady erosion, we used this calibrated denudation-morphology relationship to map spatial patterns of long-term uplift for our study catchments. By combining our predicted pattern of long-term uplift rate with paleoseismic and geodetic (tide gauge, GPS, and leveling) data, we estimated the spatial distribution of coseismic subsidence experienced during megathrust earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Our estimates of coseismic subsidence near the coast (0.4 to 0.7 m for earthquake recurrence intervals of 300 to 500 years) agree with field measurements from numerous stratigraphic studies. Our results also demonstrate that coseismic subsidence decreases inland to negligible values > 25 km from the coast, reflecting the diminishing influence of the earthquake deformation cycle on vertical changes of the interior coastal ranges. More generally, our results demonstrate that debris flow valley networks serve as highly localized, yet broadly distributed indicators of erosion (and rock uplift), making them invaluable for mapping crustal deformation and landscape adjustment. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Close

• 6. [Article] Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA

  Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA Author: Minor, Rick, Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2017 Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff erosion in 1998 at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell contained a stratigraphic record of activity by prehistoric Native Americans and interbedded paleotsunami deposits. The nearfield paleotsunamis were produced by great Cascadia earthquakes (Mw8.5 ± 0.5) emanating from the Cascadia Subduction Zone offshore, as previously documented in episodically buried tidal marsh surfaces at the south end of Netarts Bay and in many other estuaries in the region. The cultural deposits at 35TI74 reflect multiple reoccupations by Native Americans at this barrage creek flood plain site between paleotsunami runup events (≥7.5 m elevation) at 1.3 ka, 1.1 ka, 0.8–0.9 ka, and 0.3 ka. The conditions that led to the exposure of 35TI74 are traced to erosion of a protective beach dune ramp at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell, placing the site within reach of progressive storm-surf erosion. The diminishing geoarchaeological record at 35TI74 represents a microcosm of the sea cliff erosional processes that threaten vulnerable prehistoric shoreline archaeological sites along much of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Copyright © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Title: Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA Author: Minor, Rick, Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2017 Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff erosion in 1998 at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell contained a stratigraphic record of activity by prehistoric Native Americans and interbedded paleotsunami deposits. The nearfield paleotsunamis were produced by great Cascadia earthquakes (Mw8.5 ± 0.5) emanating from the Cascadia Subduction Zone offshore, as previously documented in episodically buried tidal marsh surfaces at the south end of Netarts Bay and in many other estuaries in the region. The cultural deposits at 35TI74 reflect multiple reoccupations by Native Americans at this barrage creek flood plain site between paleotsunami runup events (≥7.5 m elevation) at 1.3 ka, 1.1 ka, 0.8–0.9 ka, and 0.3 ka. The conditions that led to the exposure of 35TI74 are traced to erosion of a protective beach dune ramp at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell, placing the site within reach of progressive storm-surf erosion. The diminishing geoarchaeological record at 35TI74 represents a microcosm of the sea cliff erosional processes that threaten vulnerable prehistoric shoreline archaeological sites along much of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Copyright © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Close

• 7. [Article] Central Cascadia Subduction Zone Creep

  Central Cascadia between 43ºN and 46ºN has reduced interseismic uplift observed in geodetic data and coseismic subsidence seen in multiple thrust earthquakes, suggesting elevated persistent fault creep ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Central Cascadia Subduction Zone Creep Author: Schmalzle, Gina M., McCaffrey, Robert, Creager, Kenneth C. Year: 2014 Central Cascadia between 43ºN and 46ºN has reduced interseismic uplift observed in geodetic data and coseismic subsidence seen in multiple thrust earthquakes, suggesting elevated persistent fault creep in this section of the subduction zone. We estimate subduction thrust "decade-scale" locking and crustal block rotations from three-component continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) time series from 1997 to 2013, as well as 80 year tide gauge and leveling-derived uplift rates. Geodetic observations indicatecoastal central Oregon is rising at a slower rate than coastal Washington, southern Oregon and northern California. Modeled locking distributions suggest a wide locking transition zone that extends inland undercentral Oregon. Paleoseismic records of multiple great earthquakes along Cascadia indicate less subsidence in central Oregon. The Cascade thrust under central Oregon may be partially creeping for at least 6500 years(the length of the paleoseismic record) reducing interseismic uplift and resulting in reduced coseismic subsidence. Large accretions of Eocene age basalt (Siletzia terrane) between 43ºN and 46ºN may be less perme-able compared to surrounding terranes, potentially increasing pore fluid pressures along the fault interface resulting in a wide zone of persistent fault creep. In a separate inversion, three-component GPS time series from 1 July 2005 to 1 January 2011 are used to estimate upper plate deformation, locking between slow-slip events (SSEs), slip from 16 SSEs and an earthquake mechanism. Cumulative SSEs and tectonic tremor are weakest between 43ºN and 46ºN where partial fault creep is increased and Siletzia terrane is thick, suggesting that surrounding rock properties may influence the mode of slip. Title: Central Cascadia Subduction Zone Creep Author: Schmalzle, Gina M., McCaffrey, Robert, Creager, Kenneth C. Year: 2014 Central Cascadia between 43ºN and 46ºN has reduced interseismic uplift observed in geodetic data and coseismic subsidence seen in multiple thrust earthquakes, suggesting elevated persistent fault creep in this section of the subduction zone. We estimate subduction thrust "decade-scale" locking and crustal block rotations from three-component continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) time series from 1997 to 2013, as well as 80 year tide gauge and leveling-derived uplift rates. Geodetic observations indicatecoastal central Oregon is rising at a slower rate than coastal Washington, southern Oregon and northern California. Modeled locking distributions suggest a wide locking transition zone that extends inland undercentral Oregon. Paleoseismic records of multiple great earthquakes along Cascadia indicate less subsidence in central Oregon. The Cascade thrust under central Oregon may be partially creeping for at least 6500 years(the length of the paleoseismic record) reducing interseismic uplift and resulting in reduced coseismic subsidence. Large accretions of Eocene age basalt (Siletzia terrane) between 43ºN and 46ºN may be less perme-able compared to surrounding terranes, potentially increasing pore fluid pressures along the fault interface resulting in a wide zone of persistent fault creep. In a separate inversion, three-component GPS time series from 1 July 2005 to 1 January 2011 are used to estimate upper plate deformation, locking between slow-slip events (SSEs), slip from 16 SSEs and an earthquake mechanism. Cumulative SSEs and tectonic tremor are weakest between 43ºN and 46ºN where partial fault creep is increased and Siletzia terrane is thick, suggesting that surrounding rock properties may influence the mode of slip. Close

• 8. [Article] Melting in the Mantle Wedge: Quantifying the Effects of Crustal Morphology and Viscous Decoupling on Melt Production with Application to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

  Arc magmatism is sustained by the complex interactions between the subducting slab, the overriding plate, and the mantle wedge. Partial melting of mantle peridotite is achieved by fluid-induced flux melting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Melting in the Mantle Wedge: Quantifying the Effects of Crustal Morphology and Viscous Decoupling on Melt Production with Application to the Cascadia Subduction Zone Author: Yang, Jiaming Year: 2017 Arc magmatism is sustained by the complex interactions between the subducting slab, the overriding plate, and the mantle wedge. Partial melting of mantle peridotite is achieved by fluid-induced flux melting and decompression melting due to upward flow. The distribution of melting is sensitive to temperature, the pattern of flow, and the pressure in the mantle wedge. The arc front is the surface manifestation of partial melting in the mantle wedge and is characterized by a narrow chain of active volcanoes that migrate in time. The conventional interpretation is that changes in slab dip angle lead to changes in the arc front position relative to the trench. We explore an alternative hypothesis: evolution of the overlying plate, specifically thickening of the arc root, causes arc front migration. We investigate the effects of varying crustal morphology and viscous decoupling of the shallow slab-mantle interface on melt production using 2D numerical models involving a stationary overriding plate, a subducting plate with prescribed motion, and a dynamic mantle wedge. Melt production is quantified using a hydrous melting parameterization. We conclude: 1) Localized lithospheric thickening shifts the locus of melt production trenchward while thinning shifts melting landward. 2) Inclined LAB topography modulates the asthenospheric flow field, producing a narrow, well-defined arc front. 3) Thickening of the overriding plate exerts increased torque on the slab, favoring shallowing of the dip angle. 4) Viscous decoupling produces a cold, stagnant forearc mantle but promotes arc front melting due to reduction in the radius of corner flow, leading to higher temperatures at the coupling/decoupling transition. Title: Melting in the Mantle Wedge: Quantifying the Effects of Crustal Morphology and Viscous Decoupling on Melt Production with Application to the Cascadia Subduction Zone Author: Yang, Jiaming Year: 2017 Arc magmatism is sustained by the complex interactions between the subducting slab, the overriding plate, and the mantle wedge. Partial melting of mantle peridotite is achieved by fluid-induced flux melting and decompression melting due to upward flow. The distribution of melting is sensitive to temperature, the pattern of flow, and the pressure in the mantle wedge. The arc front is the surface manifestation of partial melting in the mantle wedge and is characterized by a narrow chain of active volcanoes that migrate in time. The conventional interpretation is that changes in slab dip angle lead to changes in the arc front position relative to the trench. We explore an alternative hypothesis: evolution of the overlying plate, specifically thickening of the arc root, causes arc front migration. We investigate the effects of varying crustal morphology and viscous decoupling of the shallow slab-mantle interface on melt production using 2D numerical models involving a stationary overriding plate, a subducting plate with prescribed motion, and a dynamic mantle wedge. Melt production is quantified using a hydrous melting parameterization. We conclude: 1) Localized lithospheric thickening shifts the locus of melt production trenchward while thinning shifts melting landward. 2) Inclined LAB topography modulates the asthenospheric flow field, producing a narrow, well-defined arc front. 3) Thickening of the overriding plate exerts increased torque on the slab, favoring shallowing of the dip angle. 4) Viscous decoupling produces a cold, stagnant forearc mantle but promotes arc front melting due to reduction in the radius of corner flow, leading to higher temperatures at the coupling/decoupling transition. Close

• 9. [Article] Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources

  The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources Author: González, Frank, Geist, Eric L., Jaffe, Bruce, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Synolakis, Costas, Titov, Vasily V., Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Johnson, Jeff, Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Venturato, Angie, Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2009 The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Title: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources Author: González, Frank, Geist, Eric L., Jaffe, Bruce, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Synolakis, Costas, Titov, Vasily V., Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Johnson, Jeff, Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Venturato, Angie, Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2009 The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Close

• 10. [Article] Mapped Overland Distance of Paleotsunami High-Velocity Inundation n Back-Barrier Wetlands of the Central Cascadia Margin, U.S.A

  Investigations of back-barrier, open-coastal plain settings have been used to establish minimum inundation distances of prehistoric tsunamis produced by great subduction zone earthquakes in the central ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Mapped Overland Distance of Paleotsunami High-Velocity Inundation n Back-Barrier Wetlands of the Central Cascadia Margin, U.S.A Author: Schlichting, Robert B., Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2006 Investigations of back-barrier, open-coastal plain settings have been used to establish minimum inundation distances of prehistoric tsunamis produced by great subduction zone earthquakes in the central Cascadia margin. Distinctive sand sheets were characterized at four localities within the central Cascadia margin, a shoreline distance of about 250 km. The sand sheets vary in thickness from 0.2 to 25 cm. They thin in the landward direction and consist of well-sorted beach sand that fines upsection. Many of the sand sheets include capping layers of organic-rich detritus, as well as assimilated mud rip-up clasts and soil litter. Marine diatoms and bromine (i.e., marine tracers) were used to confirm marine surge origins for the anomalous sand sheets. Radiocarbon dating of the sand sheets demonstrates correspondence with reported great Cascadia earthquake events at 0.3, ~1.1, ~1.3, ~1.7, and ~2.5 Ka. One sand sheet mapped at all four localities is dated at 600-950 calibrated radiocarbon years before present. This interpreted paleotsunami event does not correspond to a central Cascadia rupture, so it is tentatively assigned to a far-field source. Minimum overland inundation distances of the near field (Cascadia tsunami) at the four study localities range from 0.3 to 1.3 km, with a mean inundation for all sand sheets of 0.5 km. Title: Mapped Overland Distance of Paleotsunami High-Velocity Inundation n Back-Barrier Wetlands of the Central Cascadia Margin, U.S.A Author: Schlichting, Robert B., Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2006 Investigations of back-barrier, open-coastal plain settings have been used to establish minimum inundation distances of prehistoric tsunamis produced by great subduction zone earthquakes in the central Cascadia margin. Distinctive sand sheets were characterized at four localities within the central Cascadia margin, a shoreline distance of about 250 km. The sand sheets vary in thickness from 0.2 to 25 cm. They thin in the landward direction and consist of well-sorted beach sand that fines upsection. Many of the sand sheets include capping layers of organic-rich detritus, as well as assimilated mud rip-up clasts and soil litter. Marine diatoms and bromine (i.e., marine tracers) were used to confirm marine surge origins for the anomalous sand sheets. Radiocarbon dating of the sand sheets demonstrates correspondence with reported great Cascadia earthquake events at 0.3, ~1.1, ~1.3, ~1.7, and ~2.5 Ka. One sand sheet mapped at all four localities is dated at 600-950 calibrated radiocarbon years before present. This interpreted paleotsunami event does not correspond to a central Cascadia rupture, so it is tentatively assigned to a far-field source. Minimum overland inundation distances of the near field (Cascadia tsunami) at the four study localities range from 0.3 to 1.3 km, with a mean inundation for all sand sheets of 0.5 km. Close