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• 1. [Article] Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia

  Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia Author: Gustafson, Eric J., Shvidenko, Anatoly Z., Sturtevant, Brian R., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2010 Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape pattern in south-central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. We concluded that: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south-central Siberian landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation. Title: Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia Author: Gustafson, Eric J., Shvidenko, Anatoly Z., Sturtevant, Brian R., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2010 Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape pattern in south-central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. We concluded that: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south-central Siberian landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation. Close

• 2. [Article] Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

  We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA Author: Ager, Alan A., Day, Michelle A., Short, Karen C., Evers, Cody R. Year: 2016 We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent WUIs. The bulk of the predicted WUI exposure originated from simulated fires ignited outside of conservation and preservation reserves and in dry forests, rather than moist mixed conifer forests. Thus the notion that fuel buildup in reserves on national forests contributes to wildfire risk in the urban interface was only partially supported by the data for the region studied. Most of the national forest lands that contribute wildfires to the WUI are not within the boundaries of community wildfire protection plans, which may undermine the effectiveness of these planning efforts. We used the spatial data themes developed in the study to map conflicts and opportunities for restoration and mitigation of WUI wildfire risk. The analysis disentangles the spatial complexity of managing landscapes for multiple socio-ecological objectives as part of ongoing restoration programs, collaborative planning, and national forest plan revisions on national forests in the US. Title: Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA Author: Ager, Alan A., Day, Michelle A., Short, Karen C., Evers, Cody R. Year: 2016 We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent WUIs. The bulk of the predicted WUI exposure originated from simulated fires ignited outside of conservation and preservation reserves and in dry forests, rather than moist mixed conifer forests. Thus the notion that fuel buildup in reserves on national forests contributes to wildfire risk in the urban interface was only partially supported by the data for the region studied. Most of the national forest lands that contribute wildfires to the WUI are not within the boundaries of community wildfire protection plans, which may undermine the effectiveness of these planning efforts. We used the spatial data themes developed in the study to map conflicts and opportunities for restoration and mitigation of WUI wildfire risk. The analysis disentangles the spatial complexity of managing landscapes for multiple socio-ecological objectives as part of ongoing restoration programs, collaborative planning, and national forest plan revisions on national forests in the US. Close

• 3. [Article] Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+

  Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+ Author: Luintel, Harisharan Year: 2016 Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth of such forests are under the control of local communities, which primarily manage forests for subsistence and to meet their livelihood needs. The trend of bottom-up community control is increasing through the adoption of decentralization reforms over the last 40 years. In contrast, the United Nations has introduced the top-down program, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) for the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon and the sustainable management of forest in developing countries. REDD+ incentivizes forest-managing communities to sequester carbon and reduce emissions. REDD+ has created hope for managing forests to mitigate climate change and has created fear that the new initiative may not be effective and may not ensure continuing forest-managing community benefits. However, little research has been conducted to answer these concerns. By taking nationally representative data from Nepalese community-managed forests (“forest commons"), I bring insights into whether and how these forests can contribute to REDD+ initiatives, particularly as they relate to carbon sequestration, biodiversity, equity in benefit sharing and collective action. My results indicated the highly variable carbon and biodiversity in the forest plots across the country, depicting the availability of space for additional growth in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation. My results also reflect the complex and varied relationships of carbon with different indices of biodiversity at the national level, across geographic and topographic regions, and in forests with varying canopy covers. Weak positive relationships between carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation indicate the possibility of synergies between carbon-forestry and biodiversity conservation. I also found that the formal community forestry program (CFP) has clearly positive impacts on biodiversity conservation and household-level equity in benefit sharing and a negative impact on carbon sequestration at the national level. However, disaggregated results of impacts of CFP on biodiversity, carbon and equity across geography, topography, forest quality and social groups display mixed results i.e., either positive or negative or neutral. I also identified that different drivers of collective action have different (i.e., positive, neutral, and negative) associations with carbon sequestration, which either supports or challenges established knowledge. In aggregate, my research indicates the potential of contribution by forest commons, and specially the CFP, to global environmental initiatives such as REDD+. It suggests that targeted, dedicated policies and programs to increase carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation and foster equity and collective actions are critical. In addition, my results also contribute to the growing literature on socio-ecological implications of forest commons that demonstrated the need of interdisciplinary research to understand human-nature relationships in the changing context. Title: Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+ Author: Luintel, Harisharan Year: 2016 Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth of such forests are under the control of local communities, which primarily manage forests for subsistence and to meet their livelihood needs. The trend of bottom-up community control is increasing through the adoption of decentralization reforms over the last 40 years. In contrast, the United Nations has introduced the top-down program, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) for the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon and the sustainable management of forest in developing countries. REDD+ incentivizes forest-managing communities to sequester carbon and reduce emissions. REDD+ has created hope for managing forests to mitigate climate change and has created fear that the new initiative may not be effective and may not ensure continuing forest-managing community benefits. However, little research has been conducted to answer these concerns. By taking nationally representative data from Nepalese community-managed forests (“forest commons"), I bring insights into whether and how these forests can contribute to REDD+ initiatives, particularly as they relate to carbon sequestration, biodiversity, equity in benefit sharing and collective action. My results indicated the highly variable carbon and biodiversity in the forest plots across the country, depicting the availability of space for additional growth in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation. My results also reflect the complex and varied relationships of carbon with different indices of biodiversity at the national level, across geographic and topographic regions, and in forests with varying canopy covers. Weak positive relationships between carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation indicate the possibility of synergies between carbon-forestry and biodiversity conservation. I also found that the formal community forestry program (CFP) has clearly positive impacts on biodiversity conservation and household-level equity in benefit sharing and a negative impact on carbon sequestration at the national level. However, disaggregated results of impacts of CFP on biodiversity, carbon and equity across geography, topography, forest quality and social groups display mixed results i.e., either positive or negative or neutral. I also identified that different drivers of collective action have different (i.e., positive, neutral, and negative) associations with carbon sequestration, which either supports or challenges established knowledge. In aggregate, my research indicates the potential of contribution by forest commons, and specially the CFP, to global environmental initiatives such as REDD+. It suggests that targeted, dedicated policies and programs to increase carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation and foster equity and collective actions are critical. In addition, my results also contribute to the growing literature on socio-ecological implications of forest commons that demonstrated the need of interdisciplinary research to understand human-nature relationships in the changing context. Close

• 4. [Article] Understory Species Patterns and Diversity in Old-Growth and Managed Northern Hardwood Forests

  Forest management can significantly affect both the diversity and spatial patterning of understory vegetation. However, few studies have considered both diversity and spatial patterning at a stand scale. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Understory Species Patterns and Diversity in Old-Growth and Managed Northern Hardwood Forests Author: Scheller, Robert M., Mladenoff, David J. Year: 2002 Forest management can significantly affect both the diversity and spatial patterning of understory vegetation. However, few studies have considered both diversity and spatial patterning at a stand scale. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of forest management on understory plant communities in northern hardwood forests and assess the processes governing differences in species composition, diversity, and spatial patterns. We sampled understory vegetation (all speciestall) and percentage of light transmission levels in three forest types in 12 mesic northern hardwood stands in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA: old-growth, undisturbed forests; even-aged forests resulting from clearcut logging (65–85 yr old); and uneven-aged forests with recent selective logging. Estimated understory species richness per stand, mean species richness per quadrat, and mean percent cover per quadrat were lower in old-growth forest than in even-aged, second-growth forests and lower in even-aged than in uneven-aged, second-growth forests. Differences in species composition among the three forest types were related to available light and to coarse woody debris; however, differences between the cover of most plant groups were not significant. The mean patch size of species diversity and cover is highly variable and could not be related to forest stand type. However, understory communities in old-growth forests have significantly smaller community patch sizes and larger compositional heterogeneity. Community patch size is correlated with both coarse woody debris and light heterogeneity. Each forest stand type produces a characteristic combination of understory composition, diversity, and spatial patterning of communities. Although harvesting has negligible effects on understory alpha diversity in these mesic hardwood forests, spatial structure is slower to recover and has not recovered in the even- and uneven-aged northern hardwood forests studied. If management objectives include preserving or restoring the ecological character of the forest, harvesting may need to be altered or delayed predicated on the character of the understory. Title: Understory Species Patterns and Diversity in Old-Growth and Managed Northern Hardwood Forests Author: Scheller, Robert M., Mladenoff, David J. Year: 2002 Forest management can significantly affect both the diversity and spatial patterning of understory vegetation. However, few studies have considered both diversity and spatial patterning at a stand scale. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of forest management on understory plant communities in northern hardwood forests and assess the processes governing differences in species composition, diversity, and spatial patterns. We sampled understory vegetation (all speciestall) and percentage of light transmission levels in three forest types in 12 mesic northern hardwood stands in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA: old-growth, undisturbed forests; even-aged forests resulting from clearcut logging (65–85 yr old); and uneven-aged forests with recent selective logging. Estimated understory species richness per stand, mean species richness per quadrat, and mean percent cover per quadrat were lower in old-growth forest than in even-aged, second-growth forests and lower in even-aged than in uneven-aged, second-growth forests. Differences in species composition among the three forest types were related to available light and to coarse woody debris; however, differences between the cover of most plant groups were not significant. The mean patch size of species diversity and cover is highly variable and could not be related to forest stand type. However, understory communities in old-growth forests have significantly smaller community patch sizes and larger compositional heterogeneity. Community patch size is correlated with both coarse woody debris and light heterogeneity. Each forest stand type produces a characteristic combination of understory composition, diversity, and spatial patterning of communities. Although harvesting has negligible effects on understory alpha diversity in these mesic hardwood forests, spatial structure is slower to recover and has not recovered in the even- and uneven-aged northern hardwood forests studied. If management objectives include preserving or restoring the ecological character of the forest, harvesting may need to be altered or delayed predicated on the character of the understory. Close

• 5. [Article] Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest

  Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Close

• 6. [Article] Carbon Sequestration in Managed Temperate Coniferous Forests Under Climate Change

  Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Carbon Sequestration in Managed Temperate Coniferous Forests Under Climate Change Author: Dymond, Caren C., Beukema, Sarah, Nitschke, Craig R., Coates, K. David, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities. Title: Carbon Sequestration in Managed Temperate Coniferous Forests Under Climate Change Author: Dymond, Caren C., Beukema, Sarah, Nitschke, Craig R., Coates, K. David, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities. Close

• 7. [Article] The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA

  Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA Author: Thompson, Jonathan R., Foster, David R., Scheller, Robert M., Kittridge, David Year: 2011 Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010–2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create “probability-of-conversion” and “probability-of-harvest” zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naïve assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses. Title: The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA Author: Thompson, Jonathan R., Foster, David R., Scheller, Robert M., Kittridge, David Year: 2011 Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010–2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create “probability-of-conversion” and “probability-of-harvest” zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naïve assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses. Close

• 8. [Article] Long-term Ecological Research in Forest Park: Tracking Urban Impacts to Forest Structure and Productivity

  Current and historic land use practices as well as exposure to an urban environment can impact forest structure and function. Past and ongoing research in Forest Park, a large urban forest in Portland, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Long-term Ecological Research in Forest Park: Tracking Urban Impacts to Forest Structure and Productivity Author: Addessi, Andrew, Dresner, Marion Year: 2017 Current and historic land use practices as well as exposure to an urban environment can impact forest structure and function. Past and ongoing research in Forest Park, a large urban forest in Portland, Oregon, suggests that mature Douglas-fir (Psuedotsuga meziesii) dominated conifer stands in the more urban end of the park are not developing certain late successional features. Notably, they lack a shade-tolerant conifer understory composed of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and western red-cedar (Thuja plicata). Here, I present three lines of investigation taken from several 1-hectare permanent long-term ecological research (LTER) plots in Forest Park. First, I investigated whether plot-level differences in the intensity of past-land use, namely clearcut logging and fire, has created legacy effect on soil health, as measured by soil organic matter, soil pH, and depth of organic horizon. Second, I present 5-year growth and mortality data to characterize productivity patterns in these plots. Last, I analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data covering Forest Park to determine if canopy structural features diverged across urban and rural sections of the park. Overall, the results indicate some legacy of soil impact to urban areas most effected by past intensive logging. However, forest productivity, mortality, and structural patterns were generally consistent with stand age, and did not show strong patterns related to urban proximity. These results indicate that the lack of shade tolerant species might be most limited by ground level impacts. These results help inform park managers that regeneration of late successional tree species may require active restoration practices that focus on establishing more optimal growing sites. Title: Long-term Ecological Research in Forest Park: Tracking Urban Impacts to Forest Structure and Productivity Author: Addessi, Andrew, Dresner, Marion Year: 2017 Current and historic land use practices as well as exposure to an urban environment can impact forest structure and function. Past and ongoing research in Forest Park, a large urban forest in Portland, Oregon, suggests that mature Douglas-fir (Psuedotsuga meziesii) dominated conifer stands in the more urban end of the park are not developing certain late successional features. Notably, they lack a shade-tolerant conifer understory composed of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and western red-cedar (Thuja plicata). Here, I present three lines of investigation taken from several 1-hectare permanent long-term ecological research (LTER) plots in Forest Park. First, I investigated whether plot-level differences in the intensity of past-land use, namely clearcut logging and fire, has created legacy effect on soil health, as measured by soil organic matter, soil pH, and depth of organic horizon. Second, I present 5-year growth and mortality data to characterize productivity patterns in these plots. Last, I analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data covering Forest Park to determine if canopy structural features diverged across urban and rural sections of the park. Overall, the results indicate some legacy of soil impact to urban areas most effected by past intensive logging. However, forest productivity, mortality, and structural patterns were generally consistent with stand age, and did not show strong patterns related to urban proximity. These results indicate that the lack of shade tolerant species might be most limited by ground level impacts. These results help inform park managers that regeneration of late successional tree species may require active restoration practices that focus on establishing more optimal growing sites. Close

• 9. [Article] Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape

  While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape Author: Halofsky, Joshua S., Halofsky, Jessica E., Hemstrom, Miles A., Morzillo, Anita T., Zhou, Xiaoping, Donato, Daniel C. Year: 2017 While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and trade-offs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits. Title: Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape Author: Halofsky, Joshua S., Halofsky, Jessica E., Hemstrom, Miles A., Morzillo, Anita T., Zhou, Xiaoping, Donato, Daniel C. Year: 2017 While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and trade-offs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits. Close

• 10. [Article] Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity

  Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Close