Search

Search Results

• 1. [Article] Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+

  Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+ Author: Luintel, Harisharan Year: 2016 Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth of such forests are under the control of local communities, which primarily manage forests for subsistence and to meet their livelihood needs. The trend of bottom-up community control is increasing through the adoption of decentralization reforms over the last 40 years. In contrast, the United Nations has introduced the top-down program, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) for the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon and the sustainable management of forest in developing countries. REDD+ incentivizes forest-managing communities to sequester carbon and reduce emissions. REDD+ has created hope for managing forests to mitigate climate change and has created fear that the new initiative may not be effective and may not ensure continuing forest-managing community benefits. However, little research has been conducted to answer these concerns. By taking nationally representative data from Nepalese community-managed forests (“forest commons"), I bring insights into whether and how these forests can contribute to REDD+ initiatives, particularly as they relate to carbon sequestration, biodiversity, equity in benefit sharing and collective action. My results indicated the highly variable carbon and biodiversity in the forest plots across the country, depicting the availability of space for additional growth in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation. My results also reflect the complex and varied relationships of carbon with different indices of biodiversity at the national level, across geographic and topographic regions, and in forests with varying canopy covers. Weak positive relationships between carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation indicate the possibility of synergies between carbon-forestry and biodiversity conservation. I also found that the formal community forestry program (CFP) has clearly positive impacts on biodiversity conservation and household-level equity in benefit sharing and a negative impact on carbon sequestration at the national level. However, disaggregated results of impacts of CFP on biodiversity, carbon and equity across geography, topography, forest quality and social groups display mixed results i.e., either positive or negative or neutral. I also identified that different drivers of collective action have different (i.e., positive, neutral, and negative) associations with carbon sequestration, which either supports or challenges established knowledge. In aggregate, my research indicates the potential of contribution by forest commons, and specially the CFP, to global environmental initiatives such as REDD+. It suggests that targeted, dedicated policies and programs to increase carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation and foster equity and collective actions are critical. In addition, my results also contribute to the growing literature on socio-ecological implications of forest commons that demonstrated the need of interdisciplinary research to understand human-nature relationships in the changing context. Title: Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+ Author: Luintel, Harisharan Year: 2016 Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth of such forests are under the control of local communities, which primarily manage forests for subsistence and to meet their livelihood needs. The trend of bottom-up community control is increasing through the adoption of decentralization reforms over the last 40 years. In contrast, the United Nations has introduced the top-down program, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) for the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon and the sustainable management of forest in developing countries. REDD+ incentivizes forest-managing communities to sequester carbon and reduce emissions. REDD+ has created hope for managing forests to mitigate climate change and has created fear that the new initiative may not be effective and may not ensure continuing forest-managing community benefits. However, little research has been conducted to answer these concerns. By taking nationally representative data from Nepalese community-managed forests (“forest commons"), I bring insights into whether and how these forests can contribute to REDD+ initiatives, particularly as they relate to carbon sequestration, biodiversity, equity in benefit sharing and collective action. My results indicated the highly variable carbon and biodiversity in the forest plots across the country, depicting the availability of space for additional growth in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation. My results also reflect the complex and varied relationships of carbon with different indices of biodiversity at the national level, across geographic and topographic regions, and in forests with varying canopy covers. Weak positive relationships between carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation indicate the possibility of synergies between carbon-forestry and biodiversity conservation. I also found that the formal community forestry program (CFP) has clearly positive impacts on biodiversity conservation and household-level equity in benefit sharing and a negative impact on carbon sequestration at the national level. However, disaggregated results of impacts of CFP on biodiversity, carbon and equity across geography, topography, forest quality and social groups display mixed results i.e., either positive or negative or neutral. I also identified that different drivers of collective action have different (i.e., positive, neutral, and negative) associations with carbon sequestration, which either supports or challenges established knowledge. In aggregate, my research indicates the potential of contribution by forest commons, and specially the CFP, to global environmental initiatives such as REDD+. It suggests that targeted, dedicated policies and programs to increase carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation and foster equity and collective actions are critical. In addition, my results also contribute to the growing literature on socio-ecological implications of forest commons that demonstrated the need of interdisciplinary research to understand human-nature relationships in the changing context. Close

• 2. [Article] Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health

  Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health Author: Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A., Shandas, Vivek, Rosenstiel, Todd N. Year: 2017 Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO2 observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO2 with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO2 and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO2, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO2 associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4–12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health. Title: Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health Author: Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A., Shandas, Vivek, Rosenstiel, Todd N. Year: 2017 Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO2 observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO2 with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO2 and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO2, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO2 associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4–12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health. Close

• 3. [Article] Wildfire Risk as a Socioecological Pathology

  Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Wildfire Risk as a Socioecological Pathology Author: Fischer, A. Paige, Spies, Thomas A., Steelman, Toddi A., Moseley, Cassandra, Johnson, Bart R., Bailey, John D., Ager, Alan A., Bourgeron, Patrick, Charnley, Susan, Collins, Brandon M., Kline, Jeffrey D., Leahy, Jessica E., Littell, Jeremy S., Millington, James D. A., Nielsen-Pincus, Max, Olsen, Christine S., Paveglio, Travis B., Roos, Christopher I., Steen-Adams, Michelle M., Stevens, Forrest R., Vukomanovic, Jelena, White, Eric M., Bowman, David Year: 2016 Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS. Title: Wildfire Risk as a Socioecological Pathology Author: Fischer, A. Paige, Spies, Thomas A., Steelman, Toddi A., Moseley, Cassandra, Johnson, Bart R., Bailey, John D., Ager, Alan A., Bourgeron, Patrick, Charnley, Susan, Collins, Brandon M., Kline, Jeffrey D., Leahy, Jessica E., Littell, Jeremy S., Millington, James D. A., Nielsen-Pincus, Max, Olsen, Christine S., Paveglio, Travis B., Roos, Christopher I., Steen-Adams, Michelle M., Stevens, Forrest R., Vukomanovic, Jelena, White, Eric M., Bowman, David Year: 2016 Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS. Close

• 4. [Article] Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management

  Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Gustafson, Eric J., Sturtevant, Brian R. Year: 2017 Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Objectives: Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Methods: Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Results: Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience. Title: Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Gustafson, Eric J., Sturtevant, Brian R. Year: 2017 Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Objectives: Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Methods: Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Results: Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience. Close

• 5. [Article] Searching for Biogeochemical Hot Spots in Three Dimensions: Soil C and N Cycling in Hydropedologic Settings in a Northern Hardwood Forest

  Understanding and predicting the extent, location, and function of biogeochemical hot spots at the watershed scale is a frontier in environmental science. We applied a hydropedologic approach to identify ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Searching for Biogeochemical Hot Spots in Three Dimensions: Soil C and N Cycling in Hydropedologic Settings in a Northern Hardwood Forest Author: Morse, Jennifer L., Werner, S F., Gillin, Cody P., Goodale, Christine L., Bailey, Scott W., McGuire, Kevin J., Groffman, Peter M. Year: 2014 Understanding and predicting the extent, location, and function of biogeochemical hot spots at the watershed scale is a frontier in environmental science. We applied a hydropedologic approach to identify (1) biogeochemical differences among morphologically distinct hydropedologic settings and (2) hot spots of microbial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling activity in a northern hardwood forest in Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. We assessed variables related to C and N cycling in spodic hydropedologic settings (typical podzols, bimodal podzols, and Bh podzols) and groundwater seeps during August 2010. We found that soil horizons (Oi/Oe, Oa/A, and B) differed significantly for most variables. B horizons (>10 cm) accounted for 71% (±11%) of C pools and 62% (±10%) of microbial biomass C in the sampled soil profile, whereas the surface horizons (Oi/Oe and Oa/A; 0–10 cm) were dominant zones for N-cycle-related variables. Watershed-wide estimates of C and N cycling were higher by 34 to 43% (±17–19%) when rates, horizon thickness, and areal extent of each hydropedologic setting were incorporated, versus conventionally calculated estimates for typical podzols that included only the top 10 cm of mineral soil. Despite the variation in profile development in typical, bimodal, and Bh podzols, we did not detect significant differences in C and N cycling among them. Across all soil horizons and hydropedologic settings, we found strong links between biogeochemical cycling and soil C, suggesting that the accumulation of C in soils may be a robust indicator of microbial C and N cycling capacity in the landscape. Title: Searching for Biogeochemical Hot Spots in Three Dimensions: Soil C and N Cycling in Hydropedologic Settings in a Northern Hardwood Forest Author: Morse, Jennifer L., Werner, S F., Gillin, Cody P., Goodale, Christine L., Bailey, Scott W., McGuire, Kevin J., Groffman, Peter M. Year: 2014 Understanding and predicting the extent, location, and function of biogeochemical hot spots at the watershed scale is a frontier in environmental science. We applied a hydropedologic approach to identify (1) biogeochemical differences among morphologically distinct hydropedologic settings and (2) hot spots of microbial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling activity in a northern hardwood forest in Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. We assessed variables related to C and N cycling in spodic hydropedologic settings (typical podzols, bimodal podzols, and Bh podzols) and groundwater seeps during August 2010. We found that soil horizons (Oi/Oe, Oa/A, and B) differed significantly for most variables. B horizons (>10 cm) accounted for 71% (±11%) of C pools and 62% (±10%) of microbial biomass C in the sampled soil profile, whereas the surface horizons (Oi/Oe and Oa/A; 0–10 cm) were dominant zones for N-cycle-related variables. Watershed-wide estimates of C and N cycling were higher by 34 to 43% (±17–19%) when rates, horizon thickness, and areal extent of each hydropedologic setting were incorporated, versus conventionally calculated estimates for typical podzols that included only the top 10 cm of mineral soil. Despite the variation in profile development in typical, bimodal, and Bh podzols, we did not detect significant differences in C and N cycling among them. Across all soil horizons and hydropedologic settings, we found strong links between biogeochemical cycling and soil C, suggesting that the accumulation of C in soils may be a robust indicator of microbial C and N cycling capacity in the landscape. Close

• 6. [Article] Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest

  Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Close

• 7. [Article] Spatial and Temporal Variability of Contaminants Within Estuarine Sediments and Native Olympia Oysters: A Contrast Between a Developed and an Undeveloped Estuary

  Chemical contaminants can be introduced into estuarine and marine ecosystems from a variety of sources including wastewater, agriculture and forestry practices, point and non-point discharges, runoff from ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial and Temporal Variability of Contaminants Within Estuarine Sediments and Native Olympia Oysters: A Contrast Between a Developed and an Undeveloped Estuary Author: Granek, Elise F., Conn, Katherine E., Nilsen, Elena B., Pillsbury, Lori, Strecker, Angela L., Rumrill, Steven S., Fish, William Year: 2016 Chemical contaminants can be introduced into estuarine and marine ecosystems from a variety of sources including wastewater, agriculture and forestry practices, point and non-point discharges, runoff from industrial, municipal, and urban lands, accidental spills, and atmospheric deposition. The diversity of potential sources contributes to the likelihood of contaminated marine waters and sediments and increases the probability of uptake by marine organisms. Despite widespread recognition of direct and indirect pathways for contaminant deposition and organismal exposure in coastal systems, spatial and temporal variability in contaminant composition, deposition, and uptake patterns are still poorly known. We investigated these patterns for a suite of persistent legacy contaminants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and chemicals of emerging concern including pharmaceuticals within two Oregon coastal estuaries (Coos and Netarts Bays). In the more urbanized Coos Bay, native Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) tissue had approximately twice the number of PCB congeners at over seven times the total concentration, yet fewer PBDEs at one-tenth the concentration as compared to the more rural Netarts Bay. Different pharmaceutical suites were detected during each sampling season. Variability in contaminant types and concentrations across seasons and between species and media (organisms versus sediment) indicates the limitation of using indicator species and/or sampling annually to determine contaminant loads at a site or for specific species. The results indicate the prevalence of legacy contaminants and CECs in relatively undeveloped coastal environments highlighting the need to improve policy and management actions to reduce contaminant releases into estuarine and marine waters and to deal with legacy compounds that remain long after prohibition of use. Our results point to the need for better understanding of the ecological and human health risks of exposure to the diverse cocktail of pollutants and harmful compounds that will continue to leach from estuarine sediments over time. Title: Spatial and Temporal Variability of Contaminants Within Estuarine Sediments and Native Olympia Oysters: A Contrast Between a Developed and an Undeveloped Estuary Author: Granek, Elise F., Conn, Katherine E., Nilsen, Elena B., Pillsbury, Lori, Strecker, Angela L., Rumrill, Steven S., Fish, William Year: 2016 Chemical contaminants can be introduced into estuarine and marine ecosystems from a variety of sources including wastewater, agriculture and forestry practices, point and non-point discharges, runoff from industrial, municipal, and urban lands, accidental spills, and atmospheric deposition. The diversity of potential sources contributes to the likelihood of contaminated marine waters and sediments and increases the probability of uptake by marine organisms. Despite widespread recognition of direct and indirect pathways for contaminant deposition and organismal exposure in coastal systems, spatial and temporal variability in contaminant composition, deposition, and uptake patterns are still poorly known. We investigated these patterns for a suite of persistent legacy contaminants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and chemicals of emerging concern including pharmaceuticals within two Oregon coastal estuaries (Coos and Netarts Bays). In the more urbanized Coos Bay, native Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) tissue had approximately twice the number of PCB congeners at over seven times the total concentration, yet fewer PBDEs at one-tenth the concentration as compared to the more rural Netarts Bay. Different pharmaceutical suites were detected during each sampling season. Variability in contaminant types and concentrations across seasons and between species and media (organisms versus sediment) indicates the limitation of using indicator species and/or sampling annually to determine contaminant loads at a site or for specific species. The results indicate the prevalence of legacy contaminants and CECs in relatively undeveloped coastal environments highlighting the need to improve policy and management actions to reduce contaminant releases into estuarine and marine waters and to deal with legacy compounds that remain long after prohibition of use. Our results point to the need for better understanding of the ecological and human health risks of exposure to the diverse cocktail of pollutants and harmful compounds that will continue to leach from estuarine sediments over time. Close

• 8. [Article] Carbon Sequestration in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Under Different Scenarios of Fire Management

  The New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) is the largest forested area along the northeastern coast of the United States. The NJPB are dominated by pine (Pinus spp.) and oak (Quercus spp.) stands that are fragmented ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Carbon Sequestration in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Under Different Scenarios of Fire Management Author: Scheller, Robert M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John, La Puma, Inga Year: 2011 The New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) is the largest forested area along the northeastern coast of the United States. The NJPB are dominated by pine (Pinus spp.) and oak (Quercus spp.) stands that are fragmented and subject to frequent disturbance and forest management. Over long time periods (>50 years), the balance between oak and pine dominance is determined by fire frequency. As a consequence, the ability of the NJPB to sequester carbon may be contingent upon management activities as well as patterns of historic land use. We simulated 100 years of carbon change using three scenarios: (1) contemporary management as reflected in the recent (1991–2006) fire records, (2) an increase in the fire ignitions within the wildland urban interface areas of the NJPB reflecting increased prescribed fires, and (3) a longer response time to wildfires, reflecting a more liberal burning policy by the New Jersey Forest Fire Service. We used the LANDIS-II model coupled with CENTURY and the Dynamic Fire and Dynamic Biomass Fuels extensions to estimate forest carbon sequestration based on these three scenarios. Calibration and validation via comparison to monthly flux tower data indicated that the model reasonably captured the timing and magnitude of net ecosystem exchange in the absence of Gypsy moth defoliation (r2 = 0.89). Under all scenarios, our simulations suggest that forests of the NJPB will continue to accumulate carbon over the next 100 years under current climatic conditions. Although above ground net primary productivity, live carbon, and detrital carbon were roughly constant or increased only modestly, soil organic carbon continued to increase through time for all forest types except the highly xeric pine plains. Our simulated changes in management reflected only minor alterations to the fire regime and thus management may have only minor effects on total forest carbon budgets in the immediate future particularly when compared to recovery from historic disturbance patterns. Title: Carbon Sequestration in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Under Different Scenarios of Fire Management Author: Scheller, Robert M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John, La Puma, Inga Year: 2011 The New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) is the largest forested area along the northeastern coast of the United States. The NJPB are dominated by pine (Pinus spp.) and oak (Quercus spp.) stands that are fragmented and subject to frequent disturbance and forest management. Over long time periods (>50 years), the balance between oak and pine dominance is determined by fire frequency. As a consequence, the ability of the NJPB to sequester carbon may be contingent upon management activities as well as patterns of historic land use. We simulated 100 years of carbon change using three scenarios: (1) contemporary management as reflected in the recent (1991–2006) fire records, (2) an increase in the fire ignitions within the wildland urban interface areas of the NJPB reflecting increased prescribed fires, and (3) a longer response time to wildfires, reflecting a more liberal burning policy by the New Jersey Forest Fire Service. We used the LANDIS-II model coupled with CENTURY and the Dynamic Fire and Dynamic Biomass Fuels extensions to estimate forest carbon sequestration based on these three scenarios. Calibration and validation via comparison to monthly flux tower data indicated that the model reasonably captured the timing and magnitude of net ecosystem exchange in the absence of Gypsy moth defoliation (r2 = 0.89). Under all scenarios, our simulations suggest that forests of the NJPB will continue to accumulate carbon over the next 100 years under current climatic conditions. Although above ground net primary productivity, live carbon, and detrital carbon were roughly constant or increased only modestly, soil organic carbon continued to increase through time for all forest types except the highly xeric pine plains. Our simulated changes in management reflected only minor alterations to the fire regime and thus management may have only minor effects on total forest carbon budgets in the immediate future particularly when compared to recovery from historic disturbance patterns. Close

• 9. [Article] Watershed Management and Private Lands: Moving Beyond Financial Incentives to Encourage Land Stewardship

  Public water utilities are tasked with providing high quality, inexpensive water often sourced from watersheds representing a diverse mix of public and private land ownership. There is increasing recognition ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Watershed Management and Private Lands: Moving Beyond Financial Incentives to Encourage Land Stewardship Author: DeAngelo, Matthew Thomas Year: 2016 Public water utilities are tasked with providing high quality, inexpensive water often sourced from watersheds representing a diverse mix of public and private land ownership. There is increasing recognition amongst water resource managers of the role that private landowners play in determining downstream water quality, but bringing together landowners with a wide variety of land management objectives under the umbrella of watershed stewardship has proven difficult. Recently, a large number of "Payment for Watershed Services" programs have aimed to engage private landowners in watershed stewardship initiatives by offering financial incentives for adopting watershed best management practices. However, a growing field of research suggests that financial incentives alone may be of limited utility to encourage widespread and long-standing behavior change, and instead understanding landowner attitudes and non-financial barriers to stewardship program enrollment has become a focus of research. This research examines a population of rural landowners representing a diversity of agricultural, forestry, recreational, and investment objectives in the Clackamas River watershed, Oregon. I designed and distributed a mail and web-based survey instrument intended to measure land uses and land ownership objectives, attitudes towards watershed stewardship programs, barriers to enrollment in stewardship programs, and preferred incentives and goals that would promote enrollment. I received 281 valid responses for a response rate of 29%. I conducted two primary analyses: one focused on relating attitudes and barriers to intent to enroll in a watershed stewardship program, and one focused on identifying how diverse landowners differ according to factors influencing enrollment in stewardship programs. I found that landowners did not report financial considerations to be a primary barrier to enrollment and expressed low interest in receiving financial incentives. Instead, landowners reported that primary barriers related to lack of trust, ecological understanding, and concerns that stewardship program enrollment would be incompatible with their land management objectives. I do not discount the potential utility of financial incentives under certain circumstances, but emphasize the importance of addressing these other considerations before incentives can make a meaningful impact. I compared how barriers to enrollment were perceived by landowners with different land management objectives relating to production, investment, and conservation. I found that landowner attitudes were differentiated from one another primarily by their use of land for production purposes; however, I found a large amount of diversity between producers and non-producers in the degree to which they considered investment and conservation objectives in their land management, and these two variables added further explanatory power to understanding fine-scale differences in how landowner typologies relate to conservation programs. Title: Watershed Management and Private Lands: Moving Beyond Financial Incentives to Encourage Land Stewardship Author: DeAngelo, Matthew Thomas Year: 2016 Public water utilities are tasked with providing high quality, inexpensive water often sourced from watersheds representing a diverse mix of public and private land ownership. There is increasing recognition amongst water resource managers of the role that private landowners play in determining downstream water quality, but bringing together landowners with a wide variety of land management objectives under the umbrella of watershed stewardship has proven difficult. Recently, a large number of "Payment for Watershed Services" programs have aimed to engage private landowners in watershed stewardship initiatives by offering financial incentives for adopting watershed best management practices. However, a growing field of research suggests that financial incentives alone may be of limited utility to encourage widespread and long-standing behavior change, and instead understanding landowner attitudes and non-financial barriers to stewardship program enrollment has become a focus of research. This research examines a population of rural landowners representing a diversity of agricultural, forestry, recreational, and investment objectives in the Clackamas River watershed, Oregon. I designed and distributed a mail and web-based survey instrument intended to measure land uses and land ownership objectives, attitudes towards watershed stewardship programs, barriers to enrollment in stewardship programs, and preferred incentives and goals that would promote enrollment. I received 281 valid responses for a response rate of 29%. I conducted two primary analyses: one focused on relating attitudes and barriers to intent to enroll in a watershed stewardship program, and one focused on identifying how diverse landowners differ according to factors influencing enrollment in stewardship programs. I found that landowners did not report financial considerations to be a primary barrier to enrollment and expressed low interest in receiving financial incentives. Instead, landowners reported that primary barriers related to lack of trust, ecological understanding, and concerns that stewardship program enrollment would be incompatible with their land management objectives. I do not discount the potential utility of financial incentives under certain circumstances, but emphasize the importance of addressing these other considerations before incentives can make a meaningful impact. I compared how barriers to enrollment were perceived by landowners with different land management objectives relating to production, investment, and conservation. I found that landowner attitudes were differentiated from one another primarily by their use of land for production purposes; however, I found a large amount of diversity between producers and non-producers in the degree to which they considered investment and conservation objectives in their land management, and these two variables added further explanatory power to understanding fine-scale differences in how landowner typologies relate to conservation programs. Close

• 10. [Article] Investigating the Potential of Land Use Modifications to Mitigate the Respiratory Health Impacts of NO2: A Case Study in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area

  The health impacts of urban air pollution are a growing concern in our rapidly urbanizing world. Urban air pollutants show high intra-urban spatial variability linked to urban land use and land cover (LULC). ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Investigating the Potential of Land Use Modifications to Mitigate the Respiratory Health Impacts of NO2: A Case Study in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area Author: Rao, Meenakshi Year: 2016 The health impacts of urban air pollution are a growing concern in our rapidly urbanizing world. Urban air pollutants show high intra-urban spatial variability linked to urban land use and land cover (LULC). This correlation of air pollutants with LULC is widely recognized; LULC data is an integral input into a wide range of models, especially land use regression models developed by epidemiologists to study the impact of air pollution on human health. Given the demonstrated links between LULC and urban air pollution, and between urban air pollution and health, an interesting question arises: what is the potential of LULC modifications to mitigate the health impacts of urban air pollution? In this dissertation we assess the potential of LULC modifications to mitigate the health impacts of NO2, a respiratory irritant and strong marker for combustion-related air pollution, in the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area in northwestern USA. We begin by measuring summer and winter NO2 in the area using a spatially dense network of passive NO2 samplers. We next develop an annual average model for NO2 based on the observational data, using random forest -- for the first time in the realm of urban air pollution -- to disentangle the effects of highly correlated LULC variables on ambient NO2 concentrations. We apply this random forest (LURF) model to a 200m spatial grid covering the study area, and use this 200m LURF model to quantify the effect of different urban land use categories on ambient concentrations of NO2. Using the changes in ambient NO2 concentrations resulting from land use modifications as input to BenMAP (a health benefits assessment tool form the US EPA), we assess the NO2-related health impact associated with each land use category and its modifications. We demonstrate how the LURF model can be used to assess the respiratory health benefits of competing land use modifications, including city-wide and local-scale mitigation strategies based on modifying tree canopy and vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Planting trees is a common land cover modification strategy undertaken by cities to reduce air pollution. Statistical models such as LUR and LURF demonstrate a correlation between tree cover and reduced air pollution, but they cannot demonstrate causation. Hence, we run the atmospheric chemistry and transport model CMAQ to examine to what extent the dry deposition mechanism can explain the reduction of NO2 which statistical models associate with tree canopy. Results from our research indicate that even though the Portland-Vancouver area is in compliance with the US EPA NO2 standards, ambient concentrations of NO2 still create an annual health burden of at least $40 million USD. Our model suggests that NO2 associated with high intensity development and VMT may be creating an annual health burden of $7 million and $3.3 million USD respectively. Existing tree canopy, on the other hand, is associated with an annual health benefit of $1.4 million USD. LULC modifications can mitigate some fraction of this health burden. A 2% increase in tree canopy across the study area may reduce incidence rates of asthma exacerbation by as much as 7%. We also find that increasing tree canopy is a more effective strategy than reducing VMT in terms of mitigating the health burden of NO2. CMAQ indicates that the amount of NO2 removed by dry deposition is an order of magnitude smaller than that predicted by our statistical model. About one-third of the difference can be explained by the lower NO2 values predicted by CMAQ, and one-third may be attributable to parameterization of stomatal uptake. Title: Investigating the Potential of Land Use Modifications to Mitigate the Respiratory Health Impacts of NO2: A Case Study in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area Author: Rao, Meenakshi Year: 2016 The health impacts of urban air pollution are a growing concern in our rapidly urbanizing world. Urban air pollutants show high intra-urban spatial variability linked to urban land use and land cover (LULC). This correlation of air pollutants with LULC is widely recognized; LULC data is an integral input into a wide range of models, especially land use regression models developed by epidemiologists to study the impact of air pollution on human health. Given the demonstrated links between LULC and urban air pollution, and between urban air pollution and health, an interesting question arises: what is the potential of LULC modifications to mitigate the health impacts of urban air pollution? In this dissertation we assess the potential of LULC modifications to mitigate the health impacts of NO2, a respiratory irritant and strong marker for combustion-related air pollution, in the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area in northwestern USA. We begin by measuring summer and winter NO2 in the area using a spatially dense network of passive NO2 samplers. We next develop an annual average model for NO2 based on the observational data, using random forest -- for the first time in the realm of urban air pollution -- to disentangle the effects of highly correlated LULC variables on ambient NO2 concentrations. We apply this random forest (LURF) model to a 200m spatial grid covering the study area, and use this 200m LURF model to quantify the effect of different urban land use categories on ambient concentrations of NO2. Using the changes in ambient NO2 concentrations resulting from land use modifications as input to BenMAP (a health benefits assessment tool form the US EPA), we assess the NO2-related health impact associated with each land use category and its modifications. We demonstrate how the LURF model can be used to assess the respiratory health benefits of competing land use modifications, including city-wide and local-scale mitigation strategies based on modifying tree canopy and vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Planting trees is a common land cover modification strategy undertaken by cities to reduce air pollution. Statistical models such as LUR and LURF demonstrate a correlation between tree cover and reduced air pollution, but they cannot demonstrate causation. Hence, we run the atmospheric chemistry and transport model CMAQ to examine to what extent the dry deposition mechanism can explain the reduction of NO2 which statistical models associate with tree canopy. Results from our research indicate that even though the Portland-Vancouver area is in compliance with the US EPA NO2 standards, ambient concentrations of NO2 still create an annual health burden of at least $40 million USD. Our model suggests that NO2 associated with high intensity development and VMT may be creating an annual health burden of $7 million and $3.3 million USD respectively. Existing tree canopy, on the other hand, is associated with an annual health benefit of $1.4 million USD. LULC modifications can mitigate some fraction of this health burden. A 2% increase in tree canopy across the study area may reduce incidence rates of asthma exacerbation by as much as 7%. We also find that increasing tree canopy is a more effective strategy than reducing VMT in terms of mitigating the health burden of NO2. CMAQ indicates that the amount of NO2 removed by dry deposition is an order of magnitude smaller than that predicted by our statistical model. About one-third of the difference can be explained by the lower NO2 values predicted by CMAQ, and one-third may be attributable to parameterization of stomatal uptake. Close