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• 1. [Article] Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate

  Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Author: Hixon, Mark A., Gregory, Stanley V., Robinson, W. Douglas, Baker, C. Scott, Batchelder, Harold P., Epps, Clinton, Garcia, Tiffany S., Haig, Susan M., Letelier, Ricardo M., Lytle, David A., Menge, Bruce A., Miller, Jeffery C., Noakes, David L.G., Peterson, William T., Rice, James M., Rumrill, Steven S., Schreck, Carl B., Suryan, Robert M., Sytsma, Mark D., White, Angelicque E. Year: 2010 Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and coastal ocean. Oregon is one of the most ecologically diverse states in the country. The state’s robust biodiversity, some of which is already threatened or endangered -- inhabits complex and dynamic ecosystems that we have only begun to understand, let alone examine in terms of climate change.It is clear that the abundance and distribution of species are shifting already and will shift more rapidly as habitats on land, in freshwater, and in the sea are altered due to increasing temperatures and related environmental changes. It remains to be seen if past changes are all tied to global climate change or if they are a result of some other variability, but they represent a proxy for how species may shift in a warmer climate. Among the observed species changes: Insects are moving in from the south of Oregon, frogs are reproducing earlier in the year and land birds are shifting their distributions northward and migrating earlier. Freshwater fish are losing their cool-water habitats. In the marine environment, algal blooms have increased (figure 11) and the highly predatory Humboldt squid have shifted their distribution from subtropical and tropical regions, making an appearance off the coast of Oregon in the last few years. In a warmer climate, plant and animal species may have to shift upward or northward on land or deeper at sea for survival. Rare or endangered species may become less abundant or extinct; insect pests, invasive species and harmful algal blooms may become more abundant. Declines in the abundance of species may be caused directly by physiological stress related to changes in temperature, water availability, and other environmental shifts, and/or indirectly by habitat degradation and negative interactions with species that are benefited by climate change (diseases, parasites, predators, and competitors). Understanding the responses of Oregon’s fish and wildlife to climate change will require a better understanding of smaller organisms and insects and ocean species. Knowledge of ecological interactions will be crucial for understanding the related effects of climate change (increased predation or competition, for example). Management and natural resource polices that protect intact ecosystems are a tool for adaptation; native species can live and migrate to these safe refugia. Title: Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Author: Hixon, Mark A., Gregory, Stanley V., Robinson, W. Douglas, Baker, C. Scott, Batchelder, Harold P., Epps, Clinton, Garcia, Tiffany S., Haig, Susan M., Letelier, Ricardo M., Lytle, David A., Menge, Bruce A., Miller, Jeffery C., Noakes, David L.G., Peterson, William T., Rice, James M., Rumrill, Steven S., Schreck, Carl B., Suryan, Robert M., Sytsma, Mark D., White, Angelicque E. Year: 2010 Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and coastal ocean. Oregon is one of the most ecologically diverse states in the country. The state’s robust biodiversity, some of which is already threatened or endangered -- inhabits complex and dynamic ecosystems that we have only begun to understand, let alone examine in terms of climate change.It is clear that the abundance and distribution of species are shifting already and will shift more rapidly as habitats on land, in freshwater, and in the sea are altered due to increasing temperatures and related environmental changes. It remains to be seen if past changes are all tied to global climate change or if they are a result of some other variability, but they represent a proxy for how species may shift in a warmer climate. Among the observed species changes: Insects are moving in from the south of Oregon, frogs are reproducing earlier in the year and land birds are shifting their distributions northward and migrating earlier. Freshwater fish are losing their cool-water habitats. In the marine environment, algal blooms have increased (figure 11) and the highly predatory Humboldt squid have shifted their distribution from subtropical and tropical regions, making an appearance off the coast of Oregon in the last few years. In a warmer climate, plant and animal species may have to shift upward or northward on land or deeper at sea for survival. Rare or endangered species may become less abundant or extinct; insect pests, invasive species and harmful algal blooms may become more abundant. Declines in the abundance of species may be caused directly by physiological stress related to changes in temperature, water availability, and other environmental shifts, and/or indirectly by habitat degradation and negative interactions with species that are benefited by climate change (diseases, parasites, predators, and competitors). Understanding the responses of Oregon’s fish and wildlife to climate change will require a better understanding of smaller organisms and insects and ocean species. Knowledge of ecological interactions will be crucial for understanding the related effects of climate change (increased predation or competition, for example). Management and natural resource polices that protect intact ecosystems are a tool for adaptation; native species can live and migrate to these safe refugia. Close

• 2. [Article] Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity

  Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Close

• 3. [Article] Long-term Responses of Phalaris arundinacea and Columbia River Bottomland Vegetation to Managed Flooding

  I sought to determine the effect of managed flooding on Phalaris arundinacea L. and other plant species distributions in a large wetland complex, Smith and Bybee Wetlands (SBW), in northwestern Oregon. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Long-term Responses of Phalaris arundinacea and Columbia River Bottomland Vegetation to Managed Flooding Author: Farrelly, Tina Schantz Year: 2012 I sought to determine the effect of managed flooding on Phalaris arundinacea L. and other plant species distributions in a large wetland complex, Smith and Bybee Wetlands (SBW), in northwestern Oregon. Altered hydrology has reduced historically high spring flow and prematurely initiated the historic summer drying period at SBW. This alteration has increased the coverage of invasive plants (e.g., P. arundinacea) causing a decrease in native plant cover and thus degrading ecological functions. SBW managers installed a water control structure (WCS) between SBW and the Columbia Slough/River system to impound winter rainfall and thus approximate the ecological benefits that natural flooding provided as well as reduce the abundance of P. arundinacea. Prior researchers conducted intensive vegetation and hydrological monitoring in 2003 (during the season immediately before WCS installation) and 2004. I conducted similar analysis in the fifth and sixth years, 2008 and 2009, following establishment of the WCS. Both study years, I determined percent cover of all vegetation on transects established in 2003. The results, including 2004, as well as 2008 and 2009 showed a reduced cover of P. arundinacea in areas experiencing at least 0.6 meters of inundation and an increased cover of native plant communities when compared to the 2003 baseline data. Native Carex aperta Boott. cover increased 7-fold from 0.3% to 2.3%; Polygonum species cover increased from 20.0% to 52.6%; and Salix lucida Muhl. ssp. lasiandra (Benth.) E. Murray cover increased from 10.9% to 15.5% cover. P. arundinacea declined by over one-third from 44.4% to 28.1% cover following water management. Since hydrology management began, the native Polygonum species community replaced P. arundinacea as the dominant species in the emergent zone. The results of this study refined the suggested depth of inundation needed to reduce P. arundinacea cover in such lake-wetland complexes as SBW from 0.85 meters (based on 2004 study results) to 0.6 meters. Shannon Diversity decreased following water management. The findings of this study demonstrated that water management can enhance native bottomland communities, especially those comprised of obligate wetland species, and reduce P. arundinacea cover in areas experiencing at least 0.6 meters of inundation. Title: Long-term Responses of Phalaris arundinacea and Columbia River Bottomland Vegetation to Managed Flooding Author: Farrelly, Tina Schantz Year: 2012 I sought to determine the effect of managed flooding on Phalaris arundinacea L. and other plant species distributions in a large wetland complex, Smith and Bybee Wetlands (SBW), in northwestern Oregon. Altered hydrology has reduced historically high spring flow and prematurely initiated the historic summer drying period at SBW. This alteration has increased the coverage of invasive plants (e.g., P. arundinacea) causing a decrease in native plant cover and thus degrading ecological functions. SBW managers installed a water control structure (WCS) between SBW and the Columbia Slough/River system to impound winter rainfall and thus approximate the ecological benefits that natural flooding provided as well as reduce the abundance of P. arundinacea. Prior researchers conducted intensive vegetation and hydrological monitoring in 2003 (during the season immediately before WCS installation) and 2004. I conducted similar analysis in the fifth and sixth years, 2008 and 2009, following establishment of the WCS. Both study years, I determined percent cover of all vegetation on transects established in 2003. The results, including 2004, as well as 2008 and 2009 showed a reduced cover of P. arundinacea in areas experiencing at least 0.6 meters of inundation and an increased cover of native plant communities when compared to the 2003 baseline data. Native Carex aperta Boott. cover increased 7-fold from 0.3% to 2.3%; Polygonum species cover increased from 20.0% to 52.6%; and Salix lucida Muhl. ssp. lasiandra (Benth.) E. Murray cover increased from 10.9% to 15.5% cover. P. arundinacea declined by over one-third from 44.4% to 28.1% cover following water management. Since hydrology management began, the native Polygonum species community replaced P. arundinacea as the dominant species in the emergent zone. The results of this study refined the suggested depth of inundation needed to reduce P. arundinacea cover in such lake-wetland complexes as SBW from 0.85 meters (based on 2004 study results) to 0.6 meters. Shannon Diversity decreased following water management. The findings of this study demonstrated that water management can enhance native bottomland communities, especially those comprised of obligate wetland species, and reduce P. arundinacea cover in areas experiencing at least 0.6 meters of inundation. Close

• 4. [Article] A Behavior-Based Framework for Assessing Barrier Effects to Wildlife from Vehicle Traffic Volume

  Roads, while central to the function of human society, create barriers to animal movement through collisions and habitat fragmentation. Barriers to animal movement affect the evolution and trajectory of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Behavior-Based Framework for Assessing Barrier Effects to Wildlife from Vehicle Traffic Volume Author: Jacobson, Sandra L., Bliss-Ketchum, Leslie L., de Rivera, Catherine E., Smith, Winston P. Year: 2016 Roads, while central to the function of human society, create barriers to animal movement through collisions and habitat fragmentation. Barriers to animal movement affect the evolution and trajectory of populations. Investigators have attempted to use traffic volume, the number of vehicles passing a point on a road segment, to predict effects to wildlife populations approximately linearly and along taxonomic lines; however, taxonomic groupings cannot provide sound predictions because closely related species often respond differently. We assess the role of wildlife behavioral responses to traffic volume as a tool to predict barrier effects from vehicle-caused mortality and avoidance, to provide an early warning system that recognizes traffic volume as a trigger for mitigation, and to better interpret roadkill data. We propose four categories of behavioral response based on the perceived danger to traffic: Nonresponders, Pausers, Speeders, and Avoiders. Nonresponders attempt to cross highways regardless of traffic volume. Pausers stop in the face of danger so have a low probability of successful crossing when traffic volume increases. Hence, highway barrier effects are primarily due to mortality for Nonresponders and Pausers at high traffic volumes. Speeders run away from danger but are unable to do so successfully as traffic volume increases. At moderate to high volume, Speeders are repelled by traffic danger. Avoiders face lower mortality than other categories because they begin to avoid traffic at relatively low traffic volumes. Hence, avoidance causes barrier effects more than mortality for Speeders and Avoiders even at relatively moderate traffic volumes. By considering a species’ risk-avoidance response to traffic, managers can make more appropriate and timely decisions to mitigate effects before populations decline or become locally extinct. Title: A Behavior-Based Framework for Assessing Barrier Effects to Wildlife from Vehicle Traffic Volume Author: Jacobson, Sandra L., Bliss-Ketchum, Leslie L., de Rivera, Catherine E., Smith, Winston P. Year: 2016 Roads, while central to the function of human society, create barriers to animal movement through collisions and habitat fragmentation. Barriers to animal movement affect the evolution and trajectory of populations. Investigators have attempted to use traffic volume, the number of vehicles passing a point on a road segment, to predict effects to wildlife populations approximately linearly and along taxonomic lines; however, taxonomic groupings cannot provide sound predictions because closely related species often respond differently. We assess the role of wildlife behavioral responses to traffic volume as a tool to predict barrier effects from vehicle-caused mortality and avoidance, to provide an early warning system that recognizes traffic volume as a trigger for mitigation, and to better interpret roadkill data. We propose four categories of behavioral response based on the perceived danger to traffic: Nonresponders, Pausers, Speeders, and Avoiders. Nonresponders attempt to cross highways regardless of traffic volume. Pausers stop in the face of danger so have a low probability of successful crossing when traffic volume increases. Hence, highway barrier effects are primarily due to mortality for Nonresponders and Pausers at high traffic volumes. Speeders run away from danger but are unable to do so successfully as traffic volume increases. At moderate to high volume, Speeders are repelled by traffic danger. Avoiders face lower mortality than other categories because they begin to avoid traffic at relatively low traffic volumes. Hence, avoidance causes barrier effects more than mortality for Speeders and Avoiders even at relatively moderate traffic volumes. By considering a species’ risk-avoidance response to traffic, managers can make more appropriate and timely decisions to mitigate effects before populations decline or become locally extinct. Close

• 5. [Article] Mangrove-Exported Nutrient Incorporation by Sessile Coral Reef Invertebrates

  Coastal mangrove forests were historically considered as a source of organic matter (OM) for adjacent marine systems due to high net primary production; yet recent research suggesting little uptake through ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Mangrove-Exported Nutrient Incorporation by Sessile Coral Reef Invertebrates Author: Granek, Elise F., Compton, Jana E., Phillips, Donald L. Year: 2009 Coastal mangrove forests were historically considered as a source of organic matter (OM) for adjacent marine systems due to high net primary production; yet recent research suggesting little uptake through the food web because of low nutritional quality, challenges the concept of trophic linkage between mangrove forests and coral reefs. To examine the importance of mangrove forests to coral reef nutrient availability, we examined sessile reef-forming invertebrate consumers including hard corals, sponges, a bivalve mollusc, polychaete annelid and tunicate, and potential sources of OM (decaying mangrove leaves, microalgae, macroalgae, and seagrass) in Bocas del Toro, Panama. Using stable isotope analyses of δ34S and δ13C and a concentration-dependent version of the IsoSource mixing model, we were able to discriminate among and determine the range of potential contributions of our four OM sources to consumers. Contributions of microalgae and macroalgae were often indeterminate due to high variability, yet seagrass and mangrove contributions were often substantial. Mangrove OM ranged across sites and species of filter feeders from 0 to 57%, 7 to 41%, and 18 to 52% for sponges, file clams, and feather duster worms, respectively. Mangrove contribution to corals (Acropora cervicornis, Agaricia fragilis, Agaricia tenuifolia, Montastrea annularis, Diploria sp.) ranged from 0 to 44%. To examine whether OM contribution varied with distance from mangroves, we conducted a sponge transplant experiment that demonstrated declining mangrove contribution across three sponge species with increasing distance from the shore. These results supported the hypothesis of mangrove-coral reef nutrient linkages, providing the first evidence that mangrove inputs of OM to sessile invertebrates are substantial, accounting for 0–57% of the composition. Title: Mangrove-Exported Nutrient Incorporation by Sessile Coral Reef Invertebrates Author: Granek, Elise F., Compton, Jana E., Phillips, Donald L. Year: 2009 Coastal mangrove forests were historically considered as a source of organic matter (OM) for adjacent marine systems due to high net primary production; yet recent research suggesting little uptake through the food web because of low nutritional quality, challenges the concept of trophic linkage between mangrove forests and coral reefs. To examine the importance of mangrove forests to coral reef nutrient availability, we examined sessile reef-forming invertebrate consumers including hard corals, sponges, a bivalve mollusc, polychaete annelid and tunicate, and potential sources of OM (decaying mangrove leaves, microalgae, macroalgae, and seagrass) in Bocas del Toro, Panama. Using stable isotope analyses of δ34S and δ13C and a concentration-dependent version of the IsoSource mixing model, we were able to discriminate among and determine the range of potential contributions of our four OM sources to consumers. Contributions of microalgae and macroalgae were often indeterminate due to high variability, yet seagrass and mangrove contributions were often substantial. Mangrove OM ranged across sites and species of filter feeders from 0 to 57%, 7 to 41%, and 18 to 52% for sponges, file clams, and feather duster worms, respectively. Mangrove contribution to corals (Acropora cervicornis, Agaricia fragilis, Agaricia tenuifolia, Montastrea annularis, Diploria sp.) ranged from 0 to 44%. To examine whether OM contribution varied with distance from mangroves, we conducted a sponge transplant experiment that demonstrated declining mangrove contribution across three sponge species with increasing distance from the shore. These results supported the hypothesis of mangrove-coral reef nutrient linkages, providing the first evidence that mangrove inputs of OM to sessile invertebrates are substantial, accounting for 0–57% of the composition. Close

• 6. [Article] Multimodel Simulations of Forest Harvesting Effects on Long-Term Productivity and CN Cycling in Aspen Forests

  The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Multimodel Simulations of Forest Harvesting Effects on Long-Term Productivity and CN Cycling in Aspen Forests Author: Wang, Fugui, Mladenoff, David J., Forrester, Jodi A., Blanco, Juan A., Scheller, Robert M., Peckham, Scott D., Keough, Cindy, Lucash, Melissa S. Year: 2014 The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on stand productivity and interaction of CN cycles with a multiple model approach. Five models, Biome-BGC, CENTURY, FORECAST, LANDIS-II with Century-based soil dynamics, and PnET-CN, were run for 350 years with seven harvesting events on nutrient-poor, sandy soils representing northwestern Wisconsin, USA. Twenty CN state and flux variables were summarized from the models' outputs, and statistically analyzed using ordination and variance analysis methods. The multiple models' averages suggest that bole-only harvest would not significantly affect long-term site productivity of aspen, though declines in soil organic matter and soil N were significant. Along with direct N removal by harvesting, extensive leaching after harvesting before canopy closure was another major cause of N depletion. These five models were notably different in output values of the 20 variables examined, although there were some similarities for certain variables. PnET-CN produced unique results for every variable, and CENTURY showed fewer outliers and similar temporal patterns to the mean of all models. In general, this study demonstrated that when there are no site-specific data for fine-scale calibration and evaluation of a single model, the multiple model approach may be a more robust approach for long-term simulations. In addition, multi-modeling may also improve the calibration and evaluation of an individual model. Title: Multimodel Simulations of Forest Harvesting Effects on Long-Term Productivity and CN Cycling in Aspen Forests Author: Wang, Fugui, Mladenoff, David J., Forrester, Jodi A., Blanco, Juan A., Scheller, Robert M., Peckham, Scott D., Keough, Cindy, Lucash, Melissa S. Year: 2014 The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on stand productivity and interaction of CN cycles with a multiple model approach. Five models, Biome-BGC, CENTURY, FORECAST, LANDIS-II with Century-based soil dynamics, and PnET-CN, were run for 350 years with seven harvesting events on nutrient-poor, sandy soils representing northwestern Wisconsin, USA. Twenty CN state and flux variables were summarized from the models' outputs, and statistically analyzed using ordination and variance analysis methods. The multiple models' averages suggest that bole-only harvest would not significantly affect long-term site productivity of aspen, though declines in soil organic matter and soil N were significant. Along with direct N removal by harvesting, extensive leaching after harvesting before canopy closure was another major cause of N depletion. These five models were notably different in output values of the 20 variables examined, although there were some similarities for certain variables. PnET-CN produced unique results for every variable, and CENTURY showed fewer outliers and similar temporal patterns to the mean of all models. In general, this study demonstrated that when there are no site-specific data for fine-scale calibration and evaluation of a single model, the multiple model approach may be a more robust approach for long-term simulations. In addition, multi-modeling may also improve the calibration and evaluation of an individual model. Close

• 7. [Article] Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape

  While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape Author: Halofsky, Joshua S., Halofsky, Jessica E., Hemstrom, Miles A., Morzillo, Anita T., Zhou, Xiaoping, Donato, Daniel C. Year: 2017 While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and trade-offs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits. Title: Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape Author: Halofsky, Joshua S., Halofsky, Jessica E., Hemstrom, Miles A., Morzillo, Anita T., Zhou, Xiaoping, Donato, Daniel C. Year: 2017 While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and trade-offs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits. Close