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• 31. [Article] Fire Modulates Climate Change Response of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients in a Semi-Arid Montane Landscape

  Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Fire Modulates Climate Change Response of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients in a Semi-Arid Montane Landscape Author: Yang, Jian, Weisberg, Peter J., Shinneman, Douglas J., Dilts, Thomas E., Earnst, Susan L., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LAN DIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5ºC increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales. Title: Fire Modulates Climate Change Response of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients in a Semi-Arid Montane Landscape Author: Yang, Jian, Weisberg, Peter J., Shinneman, Douglas J., Dilts, Thomas E., Earnst, Susan L., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LAN DIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5ºC increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales. Close

• 32. [Article] Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus)

  Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus) Author: Jarnevich, Catherine S., Young, Nicholas E., Sheffels, Trevor R., Carter, Jacoby, Sytsma, Mark D., Talbert, Colin Year: 2017 Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions. Title: Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus) Author: Jarnevich, Catherine S., Young, Nicholas E., Sheffels, Trevor R., Carter, Jacoby, Sytsma, Mark D., Talbert, Colin Year: 2017 Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions. Close

• 33. [Article] Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest

  Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Close

• 34. [Article] Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR

  The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR Author: Kendrick, Christine M., Urowsky, David, Rotich, Willie, Koonce, Peter, George, Linda Acha Year: 2014 The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic performance metrics, we are investigating how this system affects roadway emissions of air pollutants. A twenty-second reduction to maximum cycle length was proposed for the SCATS system to address pedestrian delay concerns. A two-week trial period with this reduced cycle length was implemented. Travel times and roadside air pollution concentrations were monitored throughout this study period and compared to before and after periods with the current maximum cycle length. Average travel times were found to be significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length, but with a mean difference of only 4-5 seconds for travel time. Assessment of travel time for this roadway suggests that a twenty second decrease in maximum cycle length to help shorten pedestrian delay can be made without significant consequences to travel time. Total traffic volumes were consistent for all four weeks of the study. Meteorological conditions were similar for the first two weeks comparing maximum cycle lengths. A shift in ambient temperature led the second two weeks of the cycle length comparison to have more similar meteorological conditions versus the first two weeks. Average NO and NO2 concentrations were not significantly different for the first half of the study. However, NO and NO2 concentrations were significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length for the second half of the study. When there was a significant difference based on t-test statistics, the measurements did show an increase in roadside concentrations during the shorter maximum cycle length. Preliminary results are unclear if changes to air quality (as assessed by NO and NO2 concentrations) occur or not due to the reduced maximum cycle length. Results require further comparative analysis in which meteorology and traffic conditions are controlled for so that any difference in air quality due to maximum cycle length alone can be quantified. Title: Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR Author: Kendrick, Christine M., Urowsky, David, Rotich, Willie, Koonce, Peter, George, Linda Acha Year: 2014 The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic performance metrics, we are investigating how this system affects roadway emissions of air pollutants. A twenty-second reduction to maximum cycle length was proposed for the SCATS system to address pedestrian delay concerns. A two-week trial period with this reduced cycle length was implemented. Travel times and roadside air pollution concentrations were monitored throughout this study period and compared to before and after periods with the current maximum cycle length. Average travel times were found to be significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length, but with a mean difference of only 4-5 seconds for travel time. Assessment of travel time for this roadway suggests that a twenty second decrease in maximum cycle length to help shorten pedestrian delay can be made without significant consequences to travel time. Total traffic volumes were consistent for all four weeks of the study. Meteorological conditions were similar for the first two weeks comparing maximum cycle lengths. A shift in ambient temperature led the second two weeks of the cycle length comparison to have more similar meteorological conditions versus the first two weeks. Average NO and NO2 concentrations were not significantly different for the first half of the study. However, NO and NO2 concentrations were significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length for the second half of the study. When there was a significant difference based on t-test statistics, the measurements did show an increase in roadside concentrations during the shorter maximum cycle length. Preliminary results are unclear if changes to air quality (as assessed by NO and NO2 concentrations) occur or not due to the reduced maximum cycle length. Results require further comparative analysis in which meteorology and traffic conditions are controlled for so that any difference in air quality due to maximum cycle length alone can be quantified. Close

• 35. [Article] Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization

  While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization Author: Chang, Heejun, Steele, Madeline, Bonak, Zoe Year: 2011 While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial scales of analysis. To better understand this variation, we analyzed water quality data for a total of 15 sites from six Portland, Oregon area creeks at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The creeks are characterized by differing levels of urban development, from relatively pristine to highly developed. More than ten years of monthly data gathered by the Portland Bureau of Environmental Services were used to analyze temporal trends, and five years of these data were used to analyze spatial patterns. Analytes of interest were specific conductivity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphorus, total suspended solids, and temperature. These variables were compared to contributing area land use metrics at three scales: full contributing sub-basin, 100-meter riparian corridor, and 50-meter riparian corridor. We calculated seven land use metrics: population density, street density, Green Streets density, percent low density development, percent high density development, percent forested area, and percent agriculture. We found Spearman?s Rank Correlation Coefficient between the water quality parameters for annual, wet, and dry seasons and the land use metrics at each spatial scale for each parameter. The same water quality data were also analyzed for correlations to same day as well as 3-, 5-, and 7-day antecedent precipitation to examine relationships between water quality and environmental moisture conditions. Additionally, we used a Seasonal Kendall test to search for temporal trends. For each site included in the temporal analysis, changes in population density and street density metrics from 2000 to 2010 were compared to changes in water quality. Results vary across space, but generally confirm that urban development has negatively impacted the creeks. Specific conductivity, total suspended solids and nitrate are particularly sensitive to the level of urban development, especially following rain events. This work will help to better understand and mitigate urbanization impacts on freshwater systems. Title: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization Author: Chang, Heejun, Steele, Madeline, Bonak, Zoe Year: 2011 While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial scales of analysis. To better understand this variation, we analyzed water quality data for a total of 15 sites from six Portland, Oregon area creeks at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The creeks are characterized by differing levels of urban development, from relatively pristine to highly developed. More than ten years of monthly data gathered by the Portland Bureau of Environmental Services were used to analyze temporal trends, and five years of these data were used to analyze spatial patterns. Analytes of interest were specific conductivity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphorus, total suspended solids, and temperature. These variables were compared to contributing area land use metrics at three scales: full contributing sub-basin, 100-meter riparian corridor, and 50-meter riparian corridor. We calculated seven land use metrics: population density, street density, Green Streets density, percent low density development, percent high density development, percent forested area, and percent agriculture. We found Spearman?s Rank Correlation Coefficient between the water quality parameters for annual, wet, and dry seasons and the land use metrics at each spatial scale for each parameter. The same water quality data were also analyzed for correlations to same day as well as 3-, 5-, and 7-day antecedent precipitation to examine relationships between water quality and environmental moisture conditions. Additionally, we used a Seasonal Kendall test to search for temporal trends. For each site included in the temporal analysis, changes in population density and street density metrics from 2000 to 2010 were compared to changes in water quality. Results vary across space, but generally confirm that urban development has negatively impacted the creeks. Specific conductivity, total suspended solids and nitrate are particularly sensitive to the level of urban development, especially following rain events. This work will help to better understand and mitigate urbanization impacts on freshwater systems. Close

• 36. [Article] Riparian Shade Assessment and Restoration Priorities Analysis in the Damascus Urban Growth Boundary Expansion Area

  An important component of progressive urban planning is the protection and restoration of riparian environments, particularly in the Pacific Northwest where increasing stream temperatures threaten the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Riparian Shade Assessment and Restoration Priorities Analysis in the Damascus Urban Growth Boundary Expansion Area Author: Leferink, Robin K. Year: 2007 An important component of progressive urban planning is the protection and restoration of riparian environments, particularly in the Pacific Northwest where increasing stream temperatures threaten the survival of endangered salmonids and other cold-water biota. Restoration projects are often led by watershed councils or other grassroots organizations with limited resources, and it is essential that these groups have an efficient and effective approach to determine priority areas where their efforts can be directed to achieve the greatest ecological benefit. The purpose of this project was to quantify existing riparian shade levels and identify priority reaches for shade restoration on Clackamas River basin streams in the Damascus area expansion of the Portland, Oregon urban growth boundary. Additionally, potential errors in the Metro Regional Land Information System (RLIS) Lite geographic information system (GIS) coverage of the area’s streams were identified and corrected where possible. Riparian shade levels were quantified through interpretation of digital aerial photographs using GIS. At the start of the shade analysis six 50 m reaches in the study area were surveyed using a spherical densiometer to calibrate the aerial photo interpretation. Following the analysis, the method accuracy was assessed by comparing GIS-derived shade classes with field data from 25 sites in the study area that were surveyed in 2003. Stream reaches were identified and prioritized for restoration based on riparian shade level, presence or absence of late-summer flow (as determined through field investigations), and GISevaluated stream aspect (i.e. the direction of stream flow). Generally, the headwaters were found to have less shade than the downstream areas and many of the headwater reaches were identified as the highest restoration priority. Of the 60.5 km of streams assessed in the riparian shade analysis, 24.7 km were identified as potential restoration reaches based on shade levels and late-summer flow conditions. These 24.7 km were further broken into five priority ranks, with 4.1 km of stream reaches assigned to the highest shade restoration priority class. Potential errors in the GIS stream coverage were identified in conjunction with the riparian shade assessment. Where possible, these errors were corrected based on the aerial photographs. Although in many cases access was limited, a total of 18 site visits were made to verify stream locations. The results of this watershed-scale restoration priorities analysis are being used by Clackamas River Basin Council and others to guide restoration planning in the new urban area. While focusing on the high priority stream reaches identified, restoration managers will also need to consider reach-scale factors including land use plans, riparian continuity, parcel size, and landowner cooperation in the final selection of restoration sites. The GIS stream layer corrections were provided to Metro and to the City of Damascus for use in their 2007 natural resource inventory. Title: Riparian Shade Assessment and Restoration Priorities Analysis in the Damascus Urban Growth Boundary Expansion Area Author: Leferink, Robin K. Year: 2007 An important component of progressive urban planning is the protection and restoration of riparian environments, particularly in the Pacific Northwest where increasing stream temperatures threaten the survival of endangered salmonids and other cold-water biota. Restoration projects are often led by watershed councils or other grassroots organizations with limited resources, and it is essential that these groups have an efficient and effective approach to determine priority areas where their efforts can be directed to achieve the greatest ecological benefit. The purpose of this project was to quantify existing riparian shade levels and identify priority reaches for shade restoration on Clackamas River basin streams in the Damascus area expansion of the Portland, Oregon urban growth boundary. Additionally, potential errors in the Metro Regional Land Information System (RLIS) Lite geographic information system (GIS) coverage of the area’s streams were identified and corrected where possible. Riparian shade levels were quantified through interpretation of digital aerial photographs using GIS. At the start of the shade analysis six 50 m reaches in the study area were surveyed using a spherical densiometer to calibrate the aerial photo interpretation. Following the analysis, the method accuracy was assessed by comparing GIS-derived shade classes with field data from 25 sites in the study area that were surveyed in 2003. Stream reaches were identified and prioritized for restoration based on riparian shade level, presence or absence of late-summer flow (as determined through field investigations), and GISevaluated stream aspect (i.e. the direction of stream flow). Generally, the headwaters were found to have less shade than the downstream areas and many of the headwater reaches were identified as the highest restoration priority. Of the 60.5 km of streams assessed in the riparian shade analysis, 24.7 km were identified as potential restoration reaches based on shade levels and late-summer flow conditions. These 24.7 km were further broken into five priority ranks, with 4.1 km of stream reaches assigned to the highest shade restoration priority class. Potential errors in the GIS stream coverage were identified in conjunction with the riparian shade assessment. Where possible, these errors were corrected based on the aerial photographs. Although in many cases access was limited, a total of 18 site visits were made to verify stream locations. The results of this watershed-scale restoration priorities analysis are being used by Clackamas River Basin Council and others to guide restoration planning in the new urban area. While focusing on the high priority stream reaches identified, restoration managers will also need to consider reach-scale factors including land use plans, riparian continuity, parcel size, and landowner cooperation in the final selection of restoration sites. The GIS stream layer corrections were provided to Metro and to the City of Damascus for use in their 2007 natural resource inventory. Close

• 37. [Article] The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA

  Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA Author: Thompson, Jonathan R., Foster, David R., Scheller, Robert M., Kittridge, David Year: 2011 Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010–2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create “probability-of-conversion” and “probability-of-harvest” zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naïve assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses. Title: The Influence of Land Use and Climate Change on Forest Biomass and Composition in Massachusetts, USA Author: Thompson, Jonathan R., Foster, David R., Scheller, Robert M., Kittridge, David Year: 2011 Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010–2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create “probability-of-conversion” and “probability-of-harvest” zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naïve assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses. Close

• 38. [Article] A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry

  Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry Author: Johnson, Amelia Lee Year: 2016 Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. Here I analyze movement timing and growth patterns for coho salmon through a field-based study and a literature review. For the field portion, I examined hatchery-stocked juvenile coho salmon across four stream basins in the Russian River watershed, California to determine the relative importance of climate, landscape, and fish size metrics in predicting movement and growth patterns over a winter rearing and spring smolt outmigration time period (December 2014-June 2015). I observed three unique movement strategies: winter parr movement, spring smolt movement, and inter-tributary movement. Movement was predicted in relation to daily temperature and precipitation, followed by in-stream and upslope basin conditions in random forest modeling. Specifically, fish that moved later were associated with basins that contained higher productivity and low-gradient floodplain habitats, while fish that moved earlier came from streams that lacked invertebrate prey and had limited low-gradient rearing habitat. Fish size and timing of movement were the primary predictors of growth, with relatively larger fish in the spring growing faster than fish that were relatively smaller prior to winter. These relationships suggest that hatchery-release fish are still highly influenced by environmental conditions once released, especially in terms of initial seasonal movement, and that watershed conditions should be considered when utilizing hatchery-rearing programs to supplement wild fish populations. In North America, coho salmon populations are distributed from Alaska through California, and may exhibit unique movement and growth patterns in relationship to population-scale vulnerability (Endangered Species Act listing), basin area, and availability and types of rearing habitat. For the second part of my thesis, I conducted a literature review to assess what factors are commonly considered in predicting movement and growth patterns for these fish, as well as the types (season and life stage) and number of movement strategies reported. Eighteen studies were summarized, of which sixteen identified unique movement strategies, ranging from one to four. Despite a wide range of basin areas and latitudes, winter parr and spring smolt movements were commonly observed, with authors primarily relating these behaviors to in-stream habitat and fish size metrics. Additionally, growth was linked positively and primarily with off-channel winter rearing, which may outweigh the importance of fish size in predicting growth when high quality rearing habitats are available during the winter season. Recognizing movement timing diversity and its drivers can help recover threatened coho salmon populations. More widely distributed populations may have unique phenotypic expressions based on localized genetic and environmental interactions, increasing diversity and overall stability across the population, a concept known as the portfolio effect. Understanding fish-habitat relationships can aid recovery efforts by providing a framework of climatic and watershed conditions that support unique behaviors, even in already severely limited populations. Title: A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry Author: Johnson, Amelia Lee Year: 2016 Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. Here I analyze movement timing and growth patterns for coho salmon through a field-based study and a literature review. For the field portion, I examined hatchery-stocked juvenile coho salmon across four stream basins in the Russian River watershed, California to determine the relative importance of climate, landscape, and fish size metrics in predicting movement and growth patterns over a winter rearing and spring smolt outmigration time period (December 2014-June 2015). I observed three unique movement strategies: winter parr movement, spring smolt movement, and inter-tributary movement. Movement was predicted in relation to daily temperature and precipitation, followed by in-stream and upslope basin conditions in random forest modeling. Specifically, fish that moved later were associated with basins that contained higher productivity and low-gradient floodplain habitats, while fish that moved earlier came from streams that lacked invertebrate prey and had limited low-gradient rearing habitat. Fish size and timing of movement were the primary predictors of growth, with relatively larger fish in the spring growing faster than fish that were relatively smaller prior to winter. These relationships suggest that hatchery-release fish are still highly influenced by environmental conditions once released, especially in terms of initial seasonal movement, and that watershed conditions should be considered when utilizing hatchery-rearing programs to supplement wild fish populations. In North America, coho salmon populations are distributed from Alaska through California, and may exhibit unique movement and growth patterns in relationship to population-scale vulnerability (Endangered Species Act listing), basin area, and availability and types of rearing habitat. For the second part of my thesis, I conducted a literature review to assess what factors are commonly considered in predicting movement and growth patterns for these fish, as well as the types (season and life stage) and number of movement strategies reported. Eighteen studies were summarized, of which sixteen identified unique movement strategies, ranging from one to four. Despite a wide range of basin areas and latitudes, winter parr and spring smolt movements were commonly observed, with authors primarily relating these behaviors to in-stream habitat and fish size metrics. Additionally, growth was linked positively and primarily with off-channel winter rearing, which may outweigh the importance of fish size in predicting growth when high quality rearing habitats are available during the winter season. Recognizing movement timing diversity and its drivers can help recover threatened coho salmon populations. More widely distributed populations may have unique phenotypic expressions based on localized genetic and environmental interactions, increasing diversity and overall stability across the population, a concept known as the portfolio effect. Understanding fish-habitat relationships can aid recovery efforts by providing a framework of climatic and watershed conditions that support unique behaviors, even in already severely limited populations. Close

• 39. [Article] Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality

  Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality Author: Turner, Brian Christopher Year: 2017 Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native and previously established non-native predators, can prevent establishment, limit habitat use, and reduce abundance of non-native species. Management efforts by humans using methods designed to cause mass mortality (e.g., trapping, biocide applications) can reduce or eradicate non-native populations. However, the impacts of predator and human induced mortality may be mitigated by the behavior or population-level responses of a given non-native species. My dissertation examined the responses of non-native aquatic species to the risk of predation by novel (i.e., no previous exposure) predators in the recipient community and indicators of potential compensatory responses by non-native populations to increased mortality resulting from removal efforts. My dissertation addresses four primary questions. 1) Can first generation, naïve invaders recognize and defend against predators found within the region of invasion through the expression of inducible defenses? 2) Can the overcompensatory potential of a population be predicted though examinations of intraspecific interactions of individuals from the population? 3) What is the relationship between removal effort outcome (i.e., successful or unsuccessful reduction of the target population) and compensatory population responses? 4) Is there a relationship between characteristics of removal efforts that are typically available to managers (e.g., target area size, target area connectivity, removal methodology) and compensatory population responses that could indicate the relative likelihood of compensation resulting from removal efforts? An invading species should be more likely to establish if it can successfully identify and defend against predators in the recipient range, such as through the expression of inducible defenses. Inducible defenses are behavioral or physiological changes that reduce an organism's susceptibility to predation. Through a series of laboratory experiments, I tested whether inducible defenses, in the form of increased burrowing depth, may have benefited the early stage of invasion of Nuttallia obscurata (purple varnish clam), an established Northeast Pacific invader. Specimens of N. obscurata were collected from introduced populations in the Northeast Pacific and from a native population in Japan. The clams were exposed to chemical and physical cues from Northeast Pacific crab predators, including the native Metacarcinus magister (Dungeness crab), an abundant and frequent predator of N. obscurata. While introduced N. obscurata increased their burrowing depth in the physical presence of M. magister, clams collected from their native range showed no such response. This lack of increased burrowing depth by naïve clams in response to a predator native to the newly invaded range, but a significant increase in depth for clams from populations established in the range suggests that while inducible defenses likely did not contribute to the initial establishment of N. obscurata in the Northeast Pacific, they may contribute to their continued persistence and expansion in their introduced range. Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when strong negative density-dependent interactions are reduced through increased mortality within a population, resulting in an increase in the population's recruitment rate sufficient to increase the population's overall abundance. Increases in a population's recruitment rate can result from reduced cannibalism of juveniles resulting in lower mortality of new recruits, from increased adult reproductive output, which increases the number of potential recruits, or from reductions in size and/or age at maturity of the unharvested population, which increases the number of reproductive individuals. I predicted the overcompensatory potential of a population of Carcinus maenas (European green crab) in Bodega Harbor, California, using a series of laboratory and field experiments examining intraspecific pressures of adults on juveniles in the population. This measure of intraspecific pressure was used to predict the overcompensatory potential of the population in response to increased mortality from ongoing removal efforts. This prediction was then assessed using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. While adult C. maenas in Bodega Harbor had limited negative impacts on juveniles, I concluded it was unlikely to result in overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with my conclusion from the experiments. Increases in recruitment rates can occur as a result of efforts to remove non-native species. This increase in recruitment can result in overcompensation, but more commonly results in compensation, where recruitment rates increase relative to pre-removal recruitment but does not result in in the population's abundance exceeding pre-removal levels. However, a detailed and accurate prediction of the response of a population to harvest is time consuming and data intensive. This is not feasible for most efforts to eradicate non-native species, which have the greatest chance of success when enacted rapidly after detection. For my final chapter, I performed a literature review and accompanying statistical analysis to determine if typically available information related to the removal effort (site size, site connectivity, and removal technique) could be used to determine increased risk of compensation for a given effort to remove aquatic invasive species. Compensation was closely linked to unsuccessful removal efforts and was observed only among efforts utilizing physical removal methods. However, the frequency with which compensation occurred varied with the exact technique employed, occurring most frequently in removal utilizing electrofishing. Additionally, evidence of compensation was more frequent among larger removal areas with variable connectivity. While other predictors (temperature, effort, etc) might add to the predicative power, the findings of the review provide criteria for managers to determine the relative risk of compensation prior to the start of removal. Further understanding of how invasive species respond to lethal biotic interactions, including anthropogenically mediated control measures, can aid in assessing the risk of invasion for a given species and inform managers of the risk of complications resulting from removal efforts. While inducible defenses may contribute to the long-term success of an introduced species in their recipient range, my findings did not support the idea that inducible defenses triggered by predator cues contributed to their initial introduction in this case. However, research on other non-native species and offspring of previously naïve prey would allow for a clearer picture of the role of inducible defenses in the invasion process. Compensation resulting from removal efforts does not guarantee failure, and certain characteristics of removal efforts seem to indicate increased risk of compensation. Together these components help identify how biotic interactions surrounding mortality risk of an invading species help shape the trajectory of invasion. Title: Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality Author: Turner, Brian Christopher Year: 2017 Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native and previously established non-native predators, can prevent establishment, limit habitat use, and reduce abundance of non-native species. Management efforts by humans using methods designed to cause mass mortality (e.g., trapping, biocide applications) can reduce or eradicate non-native populations. However, the impacts of predator and human induced mortality may be mitigated by the behavior or population-level responses of a given non-native species. My dissertation examined the responses of non-native aquatic species to the risk of predation by novel (i.e., no previous exposure) predators in the recipient community and indicators of potential compensatory responses by non-native populations to increased mortality resulting from removal efforts. My dissertation addresses four primary questions. 1) Can first generation, naïve invaders recognize and defend against predators found within the region of invasion through the expression of inducible defenses? 2) Can the overcompensatory potential of a population be predicted though examinations of intraspecific interactions of individuals from the population? 3) What is the relationship between removal effort outcome (i.e., successful or unsuccessful reduction of the target population) and compensatory population responses? 4) Is there a relationship between characteristics of removal efforts that are typically available to managers (e.g., target area size, target area connectivity, removal methodology) and compensatory population responses that could indicate the relative likelihood of compensation resulting from removal efforts? An invading species should be more likely to establish if it can successfully identify and defend against predators in the recipient range, such as through the expression of inducible defenses. Inducible defenses are behavioral or physiological changes that reduce an organism's susceptibility to predation. Through a series of laboratory experiments, I tested whether inducible defenses, in the form of increased burrowing depth, may have benefited the early stage of invasion of Nuttallia obscurata (purple varnish clam), an established Northeast Pacific invader. Specimens of N. obscurata were collected from introduced populations in the Northeast Pacific and from a native population in Japan. The clams were exposed to chemical and physical cues from Northeast Pacific crab predators, including the native Metacarcinus magister (Dungeness crab), an abundant and frequent predator of N. obscurata. While introduced N. obscurata increased their burrowing depth in the physical presence of M. magister, clams collected from their native range showed no such response. This lack of increased burrowing depth by naïve clams in response to a predator native to the newly invaded range, but a significant increase in depth for clams from populations established in the range suggests that while inducible defenses likely did not contribute to the initial establishment of N. obscurata in the Northeast Pacific, they may contribute to their continued persistence and expansion in their introduced range. Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when strong negative density-dependent interactions are reduced through increased mortality within a population, resulting in an increase in the population's recruitment rate sufficient to increase the population's overall abundance. Increases in a population's recruitment rate can result from reduced cannibalism of juveniles resulting in lower mortality of new recruits, from increased adult reproductive output, which increases the number of potential recruits, or from reductions in size and/or age at maturity of the unharvested population, which increases the number of reproductive individuals. I predicted the overcompensatory potential of a population of Carcinus maenas (European green crab) in Bodega Harbor, California, using a series of laboratory and field experiments examining intraspecific pressures of adults on juveniles in the population. This measure of intraspecific pressure was used to predict the overcompensatory potential of the population in response to increased mortality from ongoing removal efforts. This prediction was then assessed using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. While adult C. maenas in Bodega Harbor had limited negative impacts on juveniles, I concluded it was unlikely to result in overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with my conclusion from the experiments. Increases in recruitment rates can occur as a result of efforts to remove non-native species. This increase in recruitment can result in overcompensation, but more commonly results in compensation, where recruitment rates increase relative to pre-removal recruitment but does not result in in the population's abundance exceeding pre-removal levels. However, a detailed and accurate prediction of the response of a population to harvest is time consuming and data intensive. This is not feasible for most efforts to eradicate non-native species, which have the greatest chance of success when enacted rapidly after detection. For my final chapter, I performed a literature review and accompanying statistical analysis to determine if typically available information related to the removal effort (site size, site connectivity, and removal technique) could be used to determine increased risk of compensation for a given effort to remove aquatic invasive species. Compensation was closely linked to unsuccessful removal efforts and was observed only among efforts utilizing physical removal methods. However, the frequency with which compensation occurred varied with the exact technique employed, occurring most frequently in removal utilizing electrofishing. Additionally, evidence of compensation was more frequent among larger removal areas with variable connectivity. While other predictors (temperature, effort, etc) might add to the predicative power, the findings of the review provide criteria for managers to determine the relative risk of compensation prior to the start of removal. Further understanding of how invasive species respond to lethal biotic interactions, including anthropogenically mediated control measures, can aid in assessing the risk of invasion for a given species and inform managers of the risk of complications resulting from removal efforts. While inducible defenses may contribute to the long-term success of an introduced species in their recipient range, my findings did not support the idea that inducible defenses triggered by predator cues contributed to their initial introduction in this case. However, research on other non-native species and offspring of previously naïve prey would allow for a clearer picture of the role of inducible defenses in the invasion process. Compensation resulting from removal efforts does not guarantee failure, and certain characteristics of removal efforts seem to indicate increased risk of compensation. Together these components help identify how biotic interactions surrounding mortality risk of an invading species help shape the trajectory of invasion. Close