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• 1. [Article] Internal Temperature of Douglas-Fir Buds is Altered at Elevated Temperature

  Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) saplings were grown in sun-lit controlled environment chambers at ambient or elevated (4°C above ambient) temperature. We measured internal temperatures of vegetative ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Internal Temperature of Douglas-Fir Buds is Altered at Elevated Temperature Author: Apple, Martha E., Lucash, Melissa S., Olszyk, David M., Tingey, David T., Phillips, Donald L. Year: 1999 Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) saplings were grown in sun-lit controlled environment chambers at ambient or elevated (4°C above ambient) temperature. We measured internal temperatures of vegetative buds with thermocouple probes and compared temperatures of normal buds and abnormal buds with loosened, rosetted outer scales in elevated temperature chambers. The abnormal buds had higher and earlier peak daily temperatures than normal buds. Elevated temperature may influence the internal temperature of buds and contribute to the development of abnormal, rosetted buds with loosened outer scales. Abnormal bud development may alter branching patterns and allometry of Douglas-fir trees subjected to climatic change. Title: Internal Temperature of Douglas-Fir Buds is Altered at Elevated Temperature Author: Apple, Martha E., Lucash, Melissa S., Olszyk, David M., Tingey, David T., Phillips, Donald L. Year: 1999 Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) saplings were grown in sun-lit controlled environment chambers at ambient or elevated (4°C above ambient) temperature. We measured internal temperatures of vegetative buds with thermocouple probes and compared temperatures of normal buds and abnormal buds with loosened, rosetted outer scales in elevated temperature chambers. The abnormal buds had higher and earlier peak daily temperatures than normal buds. Elevated temperature may influence the internal temperature of buds and contribute to the development of abnormal, rosetted buds with loosened outer scales. Abnormal bud development may alter branching patterns and allometry of Douglas-fir trees subjected to climatic change. Close

• 2. [Article] The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Winter and Summer Extreme Temperatures over North America

  The influence of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months over North America is examined. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Winter and Summer Extreme Temperatures over North America Author: Loikith, Paul C., Broccoli, Anthony J. Year: 2014 The influence of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months over North America is examined. Associations between extreme temperature days and months are strongest with the PNA and NAM andweaker for ENSO. In general, the associationwith extremes tends to be stronger onmonthly than daily time scales and for winter as compared to summer. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNAandNAMin the vicinity of the centers of action of these circulation patterns; however, many extremes also occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however, many of these smaller-scale events are concurrent with amplified PNA or NAMpatterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physicalmechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soilmoisture content, also influence the occurrence of extreme temperatures. Title: The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Winter and Summer Extreme Temperatures over North America Author: Loikith, Paul C., Broccoli, Anthony J. Year: 2014 The influence of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months over North America is examined. Associations between extreme temperature days and months are strongest with the PNA and NAM andweaker for ENSO. In general, the associationwith extremes tends to be stronger onmonthly than daily time scales and for winter as compared to summer. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNAandNAMin the vicinity of the centers of action of these circulation patterns; however, many extremes also occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however, many of these smaller-scale events are concurrent with amplified PNA or NAMpatterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physicalmechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soilmoisture content, also influence the occurrence of extreme temperatures. Close

• 3. [Article] Response of Sagebrush Steppe Species to Elevated CO2 and Soil Temperature

  Elevated atmospheric CO2 may cause long-term changes in the productivity and species composition of the sagebrush steppe. Few studies, however, have evaluated the effects of increased CO2 on growth and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Response of Sagebrush Steppe Species to Elevated CO2 and Soil Temperature Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Farnsworth, Blake, Winner, William E. Year: 2005 Elevated atmospheric CO2 may cause long-term changes in the productivity and species composition of the sagebrush steppe. Few studies, however, have evaluated the effects of increased CO2 on growth and physiology of species important to this ecosystem. Since the response of plants to elevated CO2 may be limited by environmental factors, soil temperature was also examined to determine if low soil temperatures limit CO2 response. To determine how CO2 and soil temperature affect the growth of species native to the sagebrush steppe, bottlebrush squirreltail [Elymus elymoides (Raf.) Swezey], Thurber needlegrass (Stipa thurberiana Piper), and Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis Beetle) were grown in ambient (374 mL L–1) or high (567 mL L–1) CO2 and low (13°C) or high (18°C) soil temperature for approximately 4 months. Although soil temperature affected the growth of squirreltail and needlegrass, temperature did not modify their response to elevated CO2. Total biomass of sagebrush was consistent across soil temperature and CO2 treatments, reflecting its slow-growing strategy. All 3 species had higher leaf water-use efficiency at elevated CO2 due to higher net photosynthesis and lower transpiration rates. We conclude that elevated CO2 and soil warming may increase the growth of grasses more than shrubs. Field studies in the sagebrush steppe are necessary to determine if differences in biomass, resulting from changes in CO2 and soil temperature, are exhibited in the field. Title: Response of Sagebrush Steppe Species to Elevated CO2 and Soil Temperature Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Farnsworth, Blake, Winner, William E. Year: 2005 Elevated atmospheric CO2 may cause long-term changes in the productivity and species composition of the sagebrush steppe. Few studies, however, have evaluated the effects of increased CO2 on growth and physiology of species important to this ecosystem. Since the response of plants to elevated CO2 may be limited by environmental factors, soil temperature was also examined to determine if low soil temperatures limit CO2 response. To determine how CO2 and soil temperature affect the growth of species native to the sagebrush steppe, bottlebrush squirreltail [Elymus elymoides (Raf.) Swezey], Thurber needlegrass (Stipa thurberiana Piper), and Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis Beetle) were grown in ambient (374 mL L–1) or high (567 mL L–1) CO2 and low (13°C) or high (18°C) soil temperature for approximately 4 months. Although soil temperature affected the growth of squirreltail and needlegrass, temperature did not modify their response to elevated CO2. Total biomass of sagebrush was consistent across soil temperature and CO2 treatments, reflecting its slow-growing strategy. All 3 species had higher leaf water-use efficiency at elevated CO2 due to higher net photosynthesis and lower transpiration rates. We conclude that elevated CO2 and soil warming may increase the growth of grasses more than shrubs. Field studies in the sagebrush steppe are necessary to determine if differences in biomass, resulting from changes in CO2 and soil temperature, are exhibited in the field. Close

• 4. [Article] Seasonal Patterns of Photosynthesis in Douglas Fir Seedlings During the Third and Fourth Year of Exposure to Elevated CO2 and Temperature

  The interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on seasonal patterns of photosynthesis in Douglas fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings were examined. Seedlings were ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Seasonal Patterns of Photosynthesis in Douglas Fir Seedlings During the Third and Fourth Year of Exposure to Elevated CO2 and Temperature Author: Lewis, James D., Lucash, Melissa S., Olszyk, David M., Tingey, David T. Year: 2001 The interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on seasonal patterns of photosynthesis in Douglas fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings were examined. Seedlings were grown in sunlit chambers controlled to track either ambient (~400 p.p.m.) CO2 or ambient +200 p.p.m. CO2, and either ambient temperature or ambient +4 °C. Light-saturated net photosynthetic rates were measured approximately monthly over a 21 month period. Elevated CO2 increased net photosynthetic rates by an average of 21% across temperature treatments during both the 1996 hydrologic year, the third year of exposure, and the 1997 hydrologic year. Elevated mean annual temperature increased net photosynthetic rates by an average of 33% across CO2 treatments during both years. Seasonal temperature changes also affected net photosynthetic rates. Across treatments, net photosynthetic rates were highest in the spring and autumn, and lowest in July, August and December–January. Seasonal increases in temperature were not correlated with increases in the relative photosynthetic response to elevated CO2. Seasonal shifts in the photosynthetic temperature optimum reduced temperature effects on the relative response to elevated CO2. These results suggest that the effects of elevated CO2 on net photosynthetic rates in Douglas fir are largely independent of temperature. Title: Seasonal Patterns of Photosynthesis in Douglas Fir Seedlings During the Third and Fourth Year of Exposure to Elevated CO2 and Temperature Author: Lewis, James D., Lucash, Melissa S., Olszyk, David M., Tingey, David T. Year: 2001 The interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on seasonal patterns of photosynthesis in Douglas fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings were examined. Seedlings were grown in sunlit chambers controlled to track either ambient (~400 p.p.m.) CO2 or ambient +200 p.p.m. CO2, and either ambient temperature or ambient +4 °C. Light-saturated net photosynthetic rates were measured approximately monthly over a 21 month period. Elevated CO2 increased net photosynthetic rates by an average of 21% across temperature treatments during both the 1996 hydrologic year, the third year of exposure, and the 1997 hydrologic year. Elevated mean annual temperature increased net photosynthetic rates by an average of 33% across CO2 treatments during both years. Seasonal temperature changes also affected net photosynthetic rates. Across treatments, net photosynthetic rates were highest in the spring and autumn, and lowest in July, August and December–January. Seasonal increases in temperature were not correlated with increases in the relative photosynthetic response to elevated CO2. Seasonal shifts in the photosynthetic temperature optimum reduced temperature effects on the relative response to elevated CO2. These results suggest that the effects of elevated CO2 on net photosynthetic rates in Douglas fir are largely independent of temperature. Close

• 5. [Article] Stomatal Responses of Douglas-Fir Seedlings to Elevated Carbon Dioxide and Temperature During the Third and Fourth Years of Exposure

  Two major components of climate change, increasing atmospheric [CO2] and increasing temperature, may substantially alter the effects of water availability to plants through effects on the rate of water ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Stomatal Responses of Douglas-Fir Seedlings to Elevated Carbon Dioxide and Temperature During the Third and Fourth Years of Exposure Author: Lewis, James D., Lucash, Melissa S., Olszyk, David M., Tingey, David T. Year: 2002 Two major components of climate change, increasing atmospheric [CO2] and increasing temperature, may substantially alter the effects of water availability to plants through effects on the rate of water loss from leaves. We examined the interactive effects of elevated [CO2] and temperature on seasonal patterns of stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration (E) and instantaneous transpiration efficiency (ITE) in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings. Seedlings were grown in sunlit chambers at either ambient CO2 (AC) or ambient + 180 µmol mol-1 CO2 (EC), and at ambient temperature (AT) or ambient + 3.5° C (ET) in a full-factorial design. Needle gas exchange at the target growth conditions was measured approximately monthly over 21 months. Across the study period and across temperature treatments, growth in elevated [CO2] decreased E by an average of 12% and increased ITE by an average of 46%. The absolute reduction of E associated with elevated [CO2] significantly increased with seasonal increases in the needle-to-air vapour pressure deficit (D). Across CO2 treatments, growth in elevated temperature increased E an average of 37%, and did not affect ITE. Combined, growth in elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature increased E an average of 19% compared with the ACAT treatment. The CO2 supply and growth temperature did not significantly affect stomatal sensitivity to D or the relationship between gs and net photosynthetic rates. This study suggests that elevated [CO2] may not completely ameliorate the effect of elevated temperature on E, and that climate change may substantially alter needle-level water loss and water use efficiency of Douglas-fir seedlings. Title: Stomatal Responses of Douglas-Fir Seedlings to Elevated Carbon Dioxide and Temperature During the Third and Fourth Years of Exposure Author: Lewis, James D., Lucash, Melissa S., Olszyk, David M., Tingey, David T. Year: 2002 Two major components of climate change, increasing atmospheric [CO2] and increasing temperature, may substantially alter the effects of water availability to plants through effects on the rate of water loss from leaves. We examined the interactive effects of elevated [CO2] and temperature on seasonal patterns of stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration (E) and instantaneous transpiration efficiency (ITE) in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings. Seedlings were grown in sunlit chambers at either ambient CO2 (AC) or ambient + 180 µmol mol-1 CO2 (EC), and at ambient temperature (AT) or ambient + 3.5° C (ET) in a full-factorial design. Needle gas exchange at the target growth conditions was measured approximately monthly over 21 months. Across the study period and across temperature treatments, growth in elevated [CO2] decreased E by an average of 12% and increased ITE by an average of 46%. The absolute reduction of E associated with elevated [CO2] significantly increased with seasonal increases in the needle-to-air vapour pressure deficit (D). Across CO2 treatments, growth in elevated temperature increased E an average of 37%, and did not affect ITE. Combined, growth in elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature increased E an average of 19% compared with the ACAT treatment. The CO2 supply and growth temperature did not significantly affect stomatal sensitivity to D or the relationship between gs and net photosynthetic rates. This study suggests that elevated [CO2] may not completely ameliorate the effect of elevated temperature on E, and that climate change may substantially alter needle-level water loss and water use efficiency of Douglas-fir seedlings. Close

• 6. [Article] Morphogenesis of Douglas Fir Buds is Altered at Elevated Temperature but not at Elevated CO2

  Global climatic change as expressed by increased CO2 and temperature has the potential for dramatic effects on trees. To determine what its effects may be on Pacific Northwest forests, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Morphogenesis of Douglas Fir Buds is Altered at Elevated Temperature but not at Elevated CO2 Author: Apple, Martha E., Lucash, Melissa S., Olszyk, David M., Tingey, David T. Year: 1998 Global climatic change as expressed by increased CO2 and temperature has the potential for dramatic effects on trees. To determine what its effects may be on Pacific Northwest forests, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii ) seedlings were grown in sun-lit controlled environment chambers at ambient or elevated (+4°C above ambient) temperature, and at ambient or elevated (+200 ppm above ambient) CO2. In 1995–1996 and 1996–1997, elevated CO2 had no effect on vegetative bud morphology, while the following unusual morphological characteristics were found with greater frequency at elevated temperature than at ambient: rosetted buds with reflexed and loosened outer scales, convoluted inner scales, clusters of small buds, needles elongating between scales, needle primordia with white, hyaline apical extensions, and buds with hardened scales inside of unbroken buds. Buds became rosetted in elevated temperature chambers after temperatures exceeded 40°C in July, 1996. Rosettes were induced within 48-h in buds placed in a 40°C oven; fewer rosettes formed at 20°C. Induction was reversible in buds transferred from 40 to 20°C, implying that rosetting is a physical rather than a growth phenomenon. It appears that rosettes form after long-term exposure to elevated temperature and after shorter periods of exposure to intense heat. Elevated temperature influences bud morphology and may therefore influence the overall branching structure of Douglas-fir seedlings. Title: Morphogenesis of Douglas Fir Buds is Altered at Elevated Temperature but not at Elevated CO2 Author: Apple, Martha E., Lucash, Melissa S., Olszyk, David M., Tingey, David T. Year: 1998 Global climatic change as expressed by increased CO2 and temperature has the potential for dramatic effects on trees. To determine what its effects may be on Pacific Northwest forests, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii ) seedlings were grown in sun-lit controlled environment chambers at ambient or elevated (+4°C above ambient) temperature, and at ambient or elevated (+200 ppm above ambient) CO2. In 1995–1996 and 1996–1997, elevated CO2 had no effect on vegetative bud morphology, while the following unusual morphological characteristics were found with greater frequency at elevated temperature than at ambient: rosetted buds with reflexed and loosened outer scales, convoluted inner scales, clusters of small buds, needles elongating between scales, needle primordia with white, hyaline apical extensions, and buds with hardened scales inside of unbroken buds. Buds became rosetted in elevated temperature chambers after temperatures exceeded 40°C in July, 1996. Rosettes were induced within 48-h in buds placed in a 40°C oven; fewer rosettes formed at 20°C. Induction was reversible in buds transferred from 40 to 20°C, implying that rosetting is a physical rather than a growth phenomenon. It appears that rosettes form after long-term exposure to elevated temperature and after shorter periods of exposure to intense heat. Elevated temperature influences bud morphology and may therefore influence the overall branching structure of Douglas-fir seedlings. Close

• 7. [Article] Surface Temperature Probability Distributions in the NARCCAP Hindcast Experiment: Evaluation Methodology, Metrics, and Results

  Methodology is developed and applied to evaluate the characteristics of daily surface temperature distributions in a six-member regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment conducted as part of the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Surface Temperature Probability Distributions in the NARCCAP Hindcast Experiment: Evaluation Methodology, Metrics, and Results Author: Loikith, Paul C., Waliser, Duane E., Lee, Huikyo, Kim, Jinwon, Neelin, J. David, Lintner, Benjamin R., McGinnis, Seth, Mattmann, Chris A., Mears, Linda O. Year: 2015 Methodology is developed and applied to evaluate the characteristics of daily surface temperature distributions in a six-member regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment conducted as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). A surface temperature dataset combining gridded station observations and reanalysis is employed as the primary reference. Temperature biases are documented across the distribution, focusing on the median and tails. Temperature variance is generally higher in the RCMs than reference, while skewness is reasonably simulated in winter over the entire domain and over the western United States and Canada in summer. Substantial differences in skewness exist over the southern and eastern portions of the domain in summer. Four examples with observed long-tailed probability distribution functions (PDFs) are selected for model comparison. Long cold tails in the winter are simulated with high fidelity for Seattle, Washington, and Chicago, Illinois. In summer, theRCMs are unable to capture the distribution width and long warm tails for the coastal location of Los Angeles, California, while long cold tails are poorly realized for Houston, Texas. The evaluation results are repeated using two additional reanalysis products adjusted by station observations and two standard reanalysis products to assess the impact of observational uncertainty. Results are robust when compared with those obtained using the adjusted reanalysis products as reference, while larger uncertainties are introduced when standard reanalysis is employed as reference. Model biases identified in this work will allow for further investigation into associated mechanisms and implications for future simulations of temperature extremes. Title: Surface Temperature Probability Distributions in the NARCCAP Hindcast Experiment: Evaluation Methodology, Metrics, and Results Author: Loikith, Paul C., Waliser, Duane E., Lee, Huikyo, Kim, Jinwon, Neelin, J. David, Lintner, Benjamin R., McGinnis, Seth, Mattmann, Chris A., Mears, Linda O. Year: 2015 Methodology is developed and applied to evaluate the characteristics of daily surface temperature distributions in a six-member regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment conducted as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). A surface temperature dataset combining gridded station observations and reanalysis is employed as the primary reference. Temperature biases are documented across the distribution, focusing on the median and tails. Temperature variance is generally higher in the RCMs than reference, while skewness is reasonably simulated in winter over the entire domain and over the western United States and Canada in summer. Substantial differences in skewness exist over the southern and eastern portions of the domain in summer. Four examples with observed long-tailed probability distribution functions (PDFs) are selected for model comparison. Long cold tails in the winter are simulated with high fidelity for Seattle, Washington, and Chicago, Illinois. In summer, theRCMs are unable to capture the distribution width and long warm tails for the coastal location of Los Angeles, California, while long cold tails are poorly realized for Houston, Texas. The evaluation results are repeated using two additional reanalysis products adjusted by station observations and two standard reanalysis products to assess the impact of observational uncertainty. Results are robust when compared with those obtained using the adjusted reanalysis products as reference, while larger uncertainties are introduced when standard reanalysis is employed as reference. Model biases identified in this work will allow for further investigation into associated mechanisms and implications for future simulations of temperature extremes. Close

• 8. [Article] Classifying Reanalysis Surface Temperature Probability Density Functions (PDFs) over North America with Cluster Analysis

  An important step in projecting future climate change impacts on extremes involves quantifying the underlying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of climate variables. However, doing so can prove ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Classifying Reanalysis Surface Temperature Probability Density Functions (PDFs) over North America with Cluster Analysis Author: Loikith, Paul C., Lintner, Benjamin R., Kim, Jinwon, Lee, Huikyo Year: 2013 An important step in projecting future climate change impacts on extremes involves quantifying the underlying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of climate variables. However, doing so can prove challenging when multiple models and large domains are considered. Here an approach to PDF quantification using k-means clustering is considered. A standard clustering algorithm (with k = 5 clusters) is applied to 33 years of daily January surface temperature from two state-of-the-art reanalysis products, the North American Regional Reanalysis and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. The resulting cluster assignments yield spatially coherent patterns that can be broadly related to distinct climate regimes over North America, e.g., low variability over the tropical oceans or temperature advection across stronger or weaker gradients. This technique has the potential to be a useful and intuitive tool for evaluation of model-simulated PDF structure and could provide insight into projections of future changes in temperature. Title: Classifying Reanalysis Surface Temperature Probability Density Functions (PDFs) over North America with Cluster Analysis Author: Loikith, Paul C., Lintner, Benjamin R., Kim, Jinwon, Lee, Huikyo Year: 2013 An important step in projecting future climate change impacts on extremes involves quantifying the underlying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of climate variables. However, doing so can prove challenging when multiple models and large domains are considered. Here an approach to PDF quantification using k-means clustering is considered. A standard clustering algorithm (with k = 5 clusters) is applied to 33 years of daily January surface temperature from two state-of-the-art reanalysis products, the North American Regional Reanalysis and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. The resulting cluster assignments yield spatially coherent patterns that can be broadly related to distinct climate regimes over North America, e.g., low variability over the tropical oceans or temperature advection across stronger or weaker gradients. This technique has the potential to be a useful and intuitive tool for evaluation of model-simulated PDF structure and could provide insight into projections of future changes in temperature. Close

• 9. [Article] Evaluation of Large‑Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Simulations

  Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluation of Large‑Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Simulations Author: Loikith, Paul C., Waliser, Duane E., Lee, Huikyo, Neelin, J. David, Lintner, Benjamin, McGinnis, Seth, Mears, Linda, Kim, Jinwon Year: 2015 Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of wellsimulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts. Title: Evaluation of Large‑Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Simulations Author: Loikith, Paul C., Waliser, Duane E., Lee, Huikyo, Neelin, J. David, Lintner, Benjamin, McGinnis, Seth, Mears, Linda, Kim, Jinwon Year: 2015 Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of wellsimulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts. Close

• 10. [Article] Comparison between Observed and Model-Simulated Atmospheric CirculationPatterns Associated with Extreme Temperature Days over North AmericaUsing CMIP5 Historical Simulations

  Circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America, as simulated by a suite of climate models, are compared with those obtained from observations. The authors analyze 17 coupled ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Comparison between Observed and Model-Simulated Atmospheric CirculationPatterns Associated with Extreme Temperature Days over North AmericaUsing CMIP5 Historical Simulations Author: Loikith, Paul C., Broccoli, Anthony J. Year: 2015 Circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America, as simulated by a suite of climate models, are compared with those obtained from observations. The authors analyze 17 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Circulation patterns are defined as composites of anomalies in sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height concurrent with days in the tails of temperature distribution. Several metrics used to systematically describe circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days are applied to both the observed and model-simulated data. Additionally, self-organizing maps are employed as a means of comparing observed and model-simulated circulation patterns across the North American domain. In general, the multimodel ensemble resembles the observed patterns well, especially in areas removed from complex geographic features (e.g., mountains and coastlines). Individual model results vary; however, the majority of models capture the major features observed. The multimodel ensemble captures several key features, including regional variations in the strength and orientation of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures, both near the surface and aloft, as well as variations with latitude and season. The results from this work suggest that these models can be used to comprehensively examine the role that changes in atmospheric circulation will play in projected changes in temperature extremes because of future anthropogenic climate warming. Title: Comparison between Observed and Model-Simulated Atmospheric CirculationPatterns Associated with Extreme Temperature Days over North AmericaUsing CMIP5 Historical Simulations Author: Loikith, Paul C., Broccoli, Anthony J. Year: 2015 Circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America, as simulated by a suite of climate models, are compared with those obtained from observations. The authors analyze 17 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Circulation patterns are defined as composites of anomalies in sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height concurrent with days in the tails of temperature distribution. Several metrics used to systematically describe circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days are applied to both the observed and model-simulated data. Additionally, self-organizing maps are employed as a means of comparing observed and model-simulated circulation patterns across the North American domain. In general, the multimodel ensemble resembles the observed patterns well, especially in areas removed from complex geographic features (e.g., mountains and coastlines). Individual model results vary; however, the majority of models capture the major features observed. The multimodel ensemble captures several key features, including regional variations in the strength and orientation of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures, both near the surface and aloft, as well as variations with latitude and season. The results from this work suggest that these models can be used to comprehensively examine the role that changes in atmospheric circulation will play in projected changes in temperature extremes because of future anthropogenic climate warming. Close