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• 1. [Article] Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories

  Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories Author: Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Lucash, Melissa S., Hom, John Year: 2012 Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration. Title: Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories Author: Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Lucash, Melissa S., Hom, John Year: 2012 Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration. Close

• 2. [Article] Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate

  Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Author: Hixon, Mark A., Gregory, Stanley V., Robinson, W. Douglas, Baker, C. Scott, Batchelder, Harold P., Epps, Clinton, Garcia, Tiffany S., Haig, Susan M., Letelier, Ricardo M., Lytle, David A., Menge, Bruce A., Miller, Jeffery C., Noakes, David L.G., Peterson, William T., Rice, James M., Rumrill, Steven S., Schreck, Carl B., Suryan, Robert M., Sytsma, Mark D., White, Angelicque E. Year: 2010 Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and coastal ocean. Oregon is one of the most ecologically diverse states in the country. The state’s robust biodiversity, some of which is already threatened or endangered -- inhabits complex and dynamic ecosystems that we have only begun to understand, let alone examine in terms of climate change.It is clear that the abundance and distribution of species are shifting already and will shift more rapidly as habitats on land, in freshwater, and in the sea are altered due to increasing temperatures and related environmental changes. It remains to be seen if past changes are all tied to global climate change or if they are a result of some other variability, but they represent a proxy for how species may shift in a warmer climate. Among the observed species changes: Insects are moving in from the south of Oregon, frogs are reproducing earlier in the year and land birds are shifting their distributions northward and migrating earlier. Freshwater fish are losing their cool-water habitats. In the marine environment, algal blooms have increased (figure 11) and the highly predatory Humboldt squid have shifted their distribution from subtropical and tropical regions, making an appearance off the coast of Oregon in the last few years. In a warmer climate, plant and animal species may have to shift upward or northward on land or deeper at sea for survival. Rare or endangered species may become less abundant or extinct; insect pests, invasive species and harmful algal blooms may become more abundant. Declines in the abundance of species may be caused directly by physiological stress related to changes in temperature, water availability, and other environmental shifts, and/or indirectly by habitat degradation and negative interactions with species that are benefited by climate change (diseases, parasites, predators, and competitors). Understanding the responses of Oregon’s fish and wildlife to climate change will require a better understanding of smaller organisms and insects and ocean species. Knowledge of ecological interactions will be crucial for understanding the related effects of climate change (increased predation or competition, for example). Management and natural resource polices that protect intact ecosystems are a tool for adaptation; native species can live and migrate to these safe refugia. Title: Oregon's Fish and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Author: Hixon, Mark A., Gregory, Stanley V., Robinson, W. Douglas, Baker, C. Scott, Batchelder, Harold P., Epps, Clinton, Garcia, Tiffany S., Haig, Susan M., Letelier, Ricardo M., Lytle, David A., Menge, Bruce A., Miller, Jeffery C., Noakes, David L.G., Peterson, William T., Rice, James M., Rumrill, Steven S., Schreck, Carl B., Suryan, Robert M., Sytsma, Mark D., White, Angelicque E. Year: 2010 Chapter 7 in: The Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report Oregon's fish and wildlife include animals on land, fish and other species in rivers and lakes, and various kinds of sea life in estuaries and coastal ocean. Oregon is one of the most ecologically diverse states in the country. The state’s robust biodiversity, some of which is already threatened or endangered -- inhabits complex and dynamic ecosystems that we have only begun to understand, let alone examine in terms of climate change.It is clear that the abundance and distribution of species are shifting already and will shift more rapidly as habitats on land, in freshwater, and in the sea are altered due to increasing temperatures and related environmental changes. It remains to be seen if past changes are all tied to global climate change or if they are a result of some other variability, but they represent a proxy for how species may shift in a warmer climate. Among the observed species changes: Insects are moving in from the south of Oregon, frogs are reproducing earlier in the year and land birds are shifting their distributions northward and migrating earlier. Freshwater fish are losing their cool-water habitats. In the marine environment, algal blooms have increased (figure 11) and the highly predatory Humboldt squid have shifted their distribution from subtropical and tropical regions, making an appearance off the coast of Oregon in the last few years. In a warmer climate, plant and animal species may have to shift upward or northward on land or deeper at sea for survival. Rare or endangered species may become less abundant or extinct; insect pests, invasive species and harmful algal blooms may become more abundant. Declines in the abundance of species may be caused directly by physiological stress related to changes in temperature, water availability, and other environmental shifts, and/or indirectly by habitat degradation and negative interactions with species that are benefited by climate change (diseases, parasites, predators, and competitors). Understanding the responses of Oregon’s fish and wildlife to climate change will require a better understanding of smaller organisms and insects and ocean species. Knowledge of ecological interactions will be crucial for understanding the related effects of climate change (increased predation or competition, for example). Management and natural resource polices that protect intact ecosystems are a tool for adaptation; native species can live and migrate to these safe refugia. Close

• 3. [Article] Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning

  Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning Author: Halsey, Shiloh Michael, Zielinski, William J., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus). Objectives To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable for reintroduction. Methods Using camera survey data, we modeled the association between bobcat presence and environmental features using a classification tree. We applied this model to a spatial analysis of fisher habitat and identified reintroduction areas in the southern Washington Cascade Range. Results The classification tree predicted bobcat detection based on elevation and mean tree diameter. The final model identified fisher reintroduction locations primarily in or near existing wilderness areas. Fisher habitat areas identified considering both habitat and predation risk differed from those identified without considering predation. Conclusion Our spatial approach is unique among fisher reintroduction plans by accounting for both resource requirements and risk of predation. It can be used as a template for future reintroduction efforts in other regions and for other species. Using similar models to refine population management and reintroduction should improve the probability of successful population establishment and stability. Title: Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning Author: Halsey, Shiloh Michael, Zielinski, William J., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus). Objectives To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable for reintroduction. Methods Using camera survey data, we modeled the association between bobcat presence and environmental features using a classification tree. We applied this model to a spatial analysis of fisher habitat and identified reintroduction areas in the southern Washington Cascade Range. Results The classification tree predicted bobcat detection based on elevation and mean tree diameter. The final model identified fisher reintroduction locations primarily in or near existing wilderness areas. Fisher habitat areas identified considering both habitat and predation risk differed from those identified without considering predation. Conclusion Our spatial approach is unique among fisher reintroduction plans by accounting for both resource requirements and risk of predation. It can be used as a template for future reintroduction efforts in other regions and for other species. Using similar models to refine population management and reintroduction should improve the probability of successful population establishment and stability. Close

• 4. [Article] 2005 Diamond Lake Submersed Aquatic Vegetation Survey

  Diamond Lake is a large natural lake having a surface area of some 3214 acres (1300.7 hectares) and a maximum depth of 52 feet (15.8 meters). It is located within the Umpqua National Forest in the Southern ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: 2005 Diamond Lake Submersed Aquatic Vegetation Survey Author: Sytsma, Mark D., Pfauth, Mary Year: 2006 Diamond Lake is a large natural lake having a surface area of some 3214 acres (1300.7 hectares) and a maximum depth of 52 feet (15.8 meters). It is located within the Umpqua National Forest in the Southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, at an elevation of over 5000 feet (>1524 meters). Diamond Lake is a high-use waterbody that supports angling, public campgrounds, recreational boating, swimming, and water skiing. The human activity associated with the lake has been a significant contributor to the economy of southern Oregon since the early part of the twentieth century. Historically Diamond Lake was fishless but since 1910 the lake has been managed as a popular trophy trout fishery. The unauthorized introduction of the tui chub (Gila bicolor) into the lake in the 1930s caused disruption of the food web and a decline in the fishery. In 1954, the Oregon Game Commission constructed a canal near the Lake Creek outlet, lowered the lake level, and treated Diamond Lake with rotenone, to eradicate tui chub. The lake was restocked with trout following the successful rotenone treatment and a fishery was maintained for several decades. In 1992, tui chub were reintroduced, through accidental introduction or intentional illegal stocking, and again caused a decline in the trout fishery. Originally mesotrophic, Diamond Lake Diamond Lake productivity increased over the last century to a eutrophic state, and is currently included on the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) 303(d) list of water quality limited water bodies for pH and algae. The lake had severe blooms of the cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) Anabaena flos-aquae, which produce neurotoxins, in the summers of 2001, 2002, and 2003. Microcystis aeruginosa, another toxin producing cyanobacterium species, was also present in the 2003 bloom. Diamond Lake was closed to some public uses (wading, swimming, water skiing, and boating) during portions of all three summers due to public health and safety concerns. Algae blooms and declining trout fishery have been attributed to alteration of the food web by the tui chubs. The chubs spawn early and consume the zooplankton in the lake, which reduces grazing pressure on phytoplankton. Since the lake is nitrogen limited, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominate the phytoplankton community. Therefore, the chubs reduce the quality of the trout fishery by reducing food available for trout and impact water quality by facilitating cyanobacteria blooms, which can be toxic. In response to the impact of the tui chub on Diamond Lake the US Forest Service and Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife are collaborating in a tui chub eradication effort. The eradication plan includes a 2.4-m (8 ft) drawdown of the lake in the winter and spring of 2006 and a rotenone treatment of remaining lake volume in 2006 to kill any remaining fish. The US Forest Service prepared an EIS for the drawdown and rotenone treatment. Potential impacts of the drawdown on littoral aquatic plant communities were identified in the EIS. The US Forest Service conducted a qualitative survey to develop a species list for the lake. The survey described here provides a quantitative, pretreatment measure of cover and biomass of aquatic plants in Diamond Lake. Follow-up sampling, using similar methods, will permit assessment of changes in the plant community following drawdown and refilling of the lake. Title: 2005 Diamond Lake Submersed Aquatic Vegetation Survey Author: Sytsma, Mark D., Pfauth, Mary Year: 2006 Diamond Lake is a large natural lake having a surface area of some 3214 acres (1300.7 hectares) and a maximum depth of 52 feet (15.8 meters). It is located within the Umpqua National Forest in the Southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, at an elevation of over 5000 feet (>1524 meters). Diamond Lake is a high-use waterbody that supports angling, public campgrounds, recreational boating, swimming, and water skiing. The human activity associated with the lake has been a significant contributor to the economy of southern Oregon since the early part of the twentieth century. Historically Diamond Lake was fishless but since 1910 the lake has been managed as a popular trophy trout fishery. The unauthorized introduction of the tui chub (Gila bicolor) into the lake in the 1930s caused disruption of the food web and a decline in the fishery. In 1954, the Oregon Game Commission constructed a canal near the Lake Creek outlet, lowered the lake level, and treated Diamond Lake with rotenone, to eradicate tui chub. The lake was restocked with trout following the successful rotenone treatment and a fishery was maintained for several decades. In 1992, tui chub were reintroduced, through accidental introduction or intentional illegal stocking, and again caused a decline in the trout fishery. Originally mesotrophic, Diamond Lake Diamond Lake productivity increased over the last century to a eutrophic state, and is currently included on the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) 303(d) list of water quality limited water bodies for pH and algae. The lake had severe blooms of the cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) Anabaena flos-aquae, which produce neurotoxins, in the summers of 2001, 2002, and 2003. Microcystis aeruginosa, another toxin producing cyanobacterium species, was also present in the 2003 bloom. Diamond Lake was closed to some public uses (wading, swimming, water skiing, and boating) during portions of all three summers due to public health and safety concerns. Algae blooms and declining trout fishery have been attributed to alteration of the food web by the tui chubs. The chubs spawn early and consume the zooplankton in the lake, which reduces grazing pressure on phytoplankton. Since the lake is nitrogen limited, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominate the phytoplankton community. Therefore, the chubs reduce the quality of the trout fishery by reducing food available for trout and impact water quality by facilitating cyanobacteria blooms, which can be toxic. In response to the impact of the tui chub on Diamond Lake the US Forest Service and Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife are collaborating in a tui chub eradication effort. The eradication plan includes a 2.4-m (8 ft) drawdown of the lake in the winter and spring of 2006 and a rotenone treatment of remaining lake volume in 2006 to kill any remaining fish. The US Forest Service prepared an EIS for the drawdown and rotenone treatment. Potential impacts of the drawdown on littoral aquatic plant communities were identified in the EIS. The US Forest Service conducted a qualitative survey to develop a species list for the lake. The survey described here provides a quantitative, pretreatment measure of cover and biomass of aquatic plants in Diamond Lake. Follow-up sampling, using similar methods, will permit assessment of changes in the plant community following drawdown and refilling of the lake. Close

• 5. [Article] Studies of ecological factors that affect the population and distribution of the western gray squirrel in northcentral Oregon

  The western gray squirrel (Sciurus griseus griseus Ord) occur only in the Pacific states and in a small corner of extreme western Nevada. Field studies of aspects of the ecology of the most widely distributed ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Studies of ecological factors that affect the population and distribution of the western gray squirrel in northcentral Oregon Author: Foster, Susan Ann Year: 1992 The western gray squirrel (Sciurus griseus griseus Ord) occur only in the Pacific states and in a small corner of extreme western Nevada. Field studies of aspects of the ecology of the most widely distributed subspecies of western gray squirrel (S. griseus) were conducted at three sites in the ponderosa pine-Oregon white oak zone on the eastern slopes of Mt. Hood, Wasco County, Oregon, between 1981 and 1989. From 1981 through 1987, a Hunter Cooperation Program provided remains of squirrels shot during the annual late summer-early autumn hunting season. Other data were gathered through capture and release studies, radiotelemetry, and habitat analysis. The age structure of these populations, as revealed by examination of squirrels killed by hunters, is predominantly mature animals. Also, the population as estimated by hunter success during the Hunter Cooperation Program and by field observations appears to be declining. In the sites studied, western gray squirrels have two seasons of reproductive activity annually. Some individuals mate from January through March; their young emerge from the nest in May and June. Other individuals mate during May and June; their young emerge in August and September. The latter matings are usually the most productive. Analysis of nest trees and their surroundings revealed that nests are most likely to be located in mature trees that have well-developed crowns and occur in stands with a high degree of canopy closure. Nest trees were usually located within approximately 180 meters of permanent water and on sites with a south-southeasterly exposure. Home ranges of squirrels examined in this study were usually large compared to home ranges reported for this species elsewhere in its range. Given the cost of having large home ranges, it seems possible that the squirrels at these study sites exist in less than optimal ecological circumstances. Human factors that may have contributed to the decline of the populations in this study may include the nature of logging activities and the timing of the annual hunting season. Limiting factors other than human activities may include competition with other mast-consuming animals (mule deer, elk, wild turkeys, and three other species of squirrels) for limited and variable mast crops. Title: Studies of ecological factors that affect the population and distribution of the western gray squirrel in northcentral Oregon Author: Foster, Susan Ann Year: 1992 The western gray squirrel (Sciurus griseus griseus Ord) occur only in the Pacific states and in a small corner of extreme western Nevada. Field studies of aspects of the ecology of the most widely distributed subspecies of western gray squirrel (S. griseus) were conducted at three sites in the ponderosa pine-Oregon white oak zone on the eastern slopes of Mt. Hood, Wasco County, Oregon, between 1981 and 1989. From 1981 through 1987, a Hunter Cooperation Program provided remains of squirrels shot during the annual late summer-early autumn hunting season. Other data were gathered through capture and release studies, radiotelemetry, and habitat analysis. The age structure of these populations, as revealed by examination of squirrels killed by hunters, is predominantly mature animals. Also, the population as estimated by hunter success during the Hunter Cooperation Program and by field observations appears to be declining. In the sites studied, western gray squirrels have two seasons of reproductive activity annually. Some individuals mate from January through March; their young emerge from the nest in May and June. Other individuals mate during May and June; their young emerge in August and September. The latter matings are usually the most productive. Analysis of nest trees and their surroundings revealed that nests are most likely to be located in mature trees that have well-developed crowns and occur in stands with a high degree of canopy closure. Nest trees were usually located within approximately 180 meters of permanent water and on sites with a south-southeasterly exposure. Home ranges of squirrels examined in this study were usually large compared to home ranges reported for this species elsewhere in its range. Given the cost of having large home ranges, it seems possible that the squirrels at these study sites exist in less than optimal ecological circumstances. Human factors that may have contributed to the decline of the populations in this study may include the nature of logging activities and the timing of the annual hunting season. Limiting factors other than human activities may include competition with other mast-consuming animals (mule deer, elk, wild turkeys, and three other species of squirrels) for limited and variable mast crops. Close

• 6. [Article] Quantifying Resilience of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in a Temperate Forest Landscape

  Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Quantifying Resilience of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in a Temperate Forest Landscape Author: Cantarello, Elena, Newton, Adrian C., Martin, Phillip A., Evans, Paul M., Gosal, Arjan, Lucash, Melissa S. Year: 2017 Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. Faced with novel disturbances, forests may be able to sustain existing ecosystem services and biodiversity by exhibiting resilience, or alternatively these attributes may undergo either a linear or nonlinear decline. Here we provide a novel quantitative approach for assessing forest resilience that focuses on three components of resilience, namely resistance, recovery, and net change, using a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. Under the pulse set scenarios, we explored the resilience of nine ecosystem services and four biodiversity measures following a one-off disturbance applied to an increasing percentage of forest area. Under the pulse + press set scenarios, the six disturbance intensities explored during the pulse set were followed by a continuous disturbance. We detected thresholds in net change under pulse + press scenarios for the majority of the ecosystem services and biodiversity measures, which started to decline sharply when disturbance affected >40% of the landscape. Thresholds in net change were not observed under the pulse scenarios, with the exception of timber volume and ground flora species richness. Thresholds were most pronounced for aboveground biomass, timber volume with respect to the ecosystem services, and ectomycorrhizal fungi and ground flora species richness with respect to the biodiversity measures. Synthesis and applications. The approach presented here illustrates how the multidimensionality of stability research in ecology can be addressed and how forest resilience can be estimated in practice. Managers should adopt specific management actions to support each of the three components of resilience separately, as these may respond differently to disturbance. In addition, management interventions aiming to deliver resilience should incorporate an assessment of both pulse and press disturbances to ensure detection of threshold responses to disturbance, so that appropriate management interventions can be identified. Title: Quantifying Resilience of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in a Temperate Forest Landscape Author: Cantarello, Elena, Newton, Adrian C., Martin, Phillip A., Evans, Paul M., Gosal, Arjan, Lucash, Melissa S. Year: 2017 Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. Faced with novel disturbances, forests may be able to sustain existing ecosystem services and biodiversity by exhibiting resilience, or alternatively these attributes may undergo either a linear or nonlinear decline. Here we provide a novel quantitative approach for assessing forest resilience that focuses on three components of resilience, namely resistance, recovery, and net change, using a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. Under the pulse set scenarios, we explored the resilience of nine ecosystem services and four biodiversity measures following a one-off disturbance applied to an increasing percentage of forest area. Under the pulse + press set scenarios, the six disturbance intensities explored during the pulse set were followed by a continuous disturbance. We detected thresholds in net change under pulse + press scenarios for the majority of the ecosystem services and biodiversity measures, which started to decline sharply when disturbance affected >40% of the landscape. Thresholds in net change were not observed under the pulse scenarios, with the exception of timber volume and ground flora species richness. Thresholds were most pronounced for aboveground biomass, timber volume with respect to the ecosystem services, and ectomycorrhizal fungi and ground flora species richness with respect to the biodiversity measures. Synthesis and applications. The approach presented here illustrates how the multidimensionality of stability research in ecology can be addressed and how forest resilience can be estimated in practice. Managers should adopt specific management actions to support each of the three components of resilience separately, as these may respond differently to disturbance. In addition, management interventions aiming to deliver resilience should incorporate an assessment of both pulse and press disturbances to ensure detection of threshold responses to disturbance, so that appropriate management interventions can be identified. Close

• 7. [Article] Climate Change and Land Management Impact Rangeland Condition and Sage-Grouse Habitat in Southeastern Oregon

  Contemporary pressures on sagebrush steppe from climate change, exotic species, wildfire, and land use change threaten rangeland species such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). To ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change and Land Management Impact Rangeland Condition and Sage-Grouse Habitat in Southeastern Oregon Author: Creutzburg, Megan K., Henderson, Emilie B., Conklin, David R. Year: 2015 Contemporary pressures on sagebrush steppe from climate change, exotic species, wildfire, and land use change threaten rangeland species such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). To effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need information about the potential impacts of climate change, disturbances, and management activities. We integrated information from a dynamic global vegetation model, a sage-grouse habitat climate envelope model, and a state-and-transition simulation model to project broad-scale vegetation dynamics and potential sage-grouse habitat across 23.5 million acres in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated four climate scenarios, including continuing current climate and three scenarios of global climate change, and three management scenarios, including no management, current management and a sage-grouse habitat restoration scenario. All climate change scenarios projected expansion of moist shrub steppe and contraction of dry shrub steppe, but climate scenarios varied widely in the projected extent of xeric shrub steppe, where hot, dry summer conditions are unfavorable for sage-grouse. Wildfire increased by 26% over the century under current climate due to exotic grass encroachment, and by two- to four-fold across all climate change scenarios as extreme fire years became more frequent. Exotic grasses rapidly expanded in all scenarios as large areas of the landscape initially in semi-degraded condition converted to exotic-dominated systems. Due to the combination of exotic grass invasion, juniper encroachment, and climatic unsuitability for sage-grouse, projected sage-grouse habitat declined in the first several decades, but increased in area under the three climate change scenarios later in the century, as moist shrub steppe increased and rangeland condition improved. Management activities in the model were generally unsuccessful in controlling exotic grass invasion but were effective in slowing woodland expansion. Current levels of restoration treatments were insufficient to prevent some juniper expansion, but increased treatment rates under the restoration scenario maintained juniper near initial levels in priority treatment areas. Our simulations indicate that climate change may have both positive and negative implications for maintaining sage-grouse habitat. Title: Climate Change and Land Management Impact Rangeland Condition and Sage-Grouse Habitat in Southeastern Oregon Author: Creutzburg, Megan K., Henderson, Emilie B., Conklin, David R. Year: 2015 Contemporary pressures on sagebrush steppe from climate change, exotic species, wildfire, and land use change threaten rangeland species such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). To effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need information about the potential impacts of climate change, disturbances, and management activities. We integrated information from a dynamic global vegetation model, a sage-grouse habitat climate envelope model, and a state-and-transition simulation model to project broad-scale vegetation dynamics and potential sage-grouse habitat across 23.5 million acres in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated four climate scenarios, including continuing current climate and three scenarios of global climate change, and three management scenarios, including no management, current management and a sage-grouse habitat restoration scenario. All climate change scenarios projected expansion of moist shrub steppe and contraction of dry shrub steppe, but climate scenarios varied widely in the projected extent of xeric shrub steppe, where hot, dry summer conditions are unfavorable for sage-grouse. Wildfire increased by 26% over the century under current climate due to exotic grass encroachment, and by two- to four-fold across all climate change scenarios as extreme fire years became more frequent. Exotic grasses rapidly expanded in all scenarios as large areas of the landscape initially in semi-degraded condition converted to exotic-dominated systems. Due to the combination of exotic grass invasion, juniper encroachment, and climatic unsuitability for sage-grouse, projected sage-grouse habitat declined in the first several decades, but increased in area under the three climate change scenarios later in the century, as moist shrub steppe increased and rangeland condition improved. Management activities in the model were generally unsuccessful in controlling exotic grass invasion but were effective in slowing woodland expansion. Current levels of restoration treatments were insufficient to prevent some juniper expansion, but increased treatment rates under the restoration scenario maintained juniper near initial levels in priority treatment areas. Our simulations indicate that climate change may have both positive and negative implications for maintaining sage-grouse habitat. Close