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• 11. [Article] Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040

  The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Vaidya, Kanhaiya, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2011 The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce long-term population forecasts for each of the two sewer service districts. In addition, CCSD#1 requested that forecasts also be developed to include the entire city of Damascus to account for possible future annexation into its district; and the city of Milwaukie, as CCSD#1 leases services to Milwaukie. The forecast horizon extends 30 years from 2010 to 2040, and projections are produced in 5-year intervals. For the 2010-2015 interval, forecast numbers for single years are included. Forecasts for three growth scenarios – high, medium, and low scenarios – are developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. We consider the medium growth forecast to be the most-likely scenario. We also include in this report an analysis of recent demographic trends that have bearing on our assumptions for future growth in study areas. Title: Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Vaidya, Kanhaiya, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2011 The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce long-term population forecasts for each of the two sewer service districts. In addition, CCSD#1 requested that forecasts also be developed to include the entire city of Damascus to account for possible future annexation into its district; and the city of Milwaukie, as CCSD#1 leases services to Milwaukie. The forecast horizon extends 30 years from 2010 to 2040, and projections are produced in 5-year intervals. For the 2010-2015 interval, forecast numbers for single years are included. Forecasts for three growth scenarios – high, medium, and low scenarios – are developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. We consider the medium growth forecast to be the most-likely scenario. We also include in this report an analysis of recent demographic trends that have bearing on our assumptions for future growth in study areas. Close

• 12. [Article] Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts

  This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Close

• 13. [Article] McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23

  The McMinnville School District (MSD) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan, Siu, Vivian Year: 2013 The McMinnville School District (MSD) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current study integrates information about MSD and updates the work PRC conducted in 2008 and 2011, providing a snapshot of demographic, housing, and school enrollment patterns and trends. This report also presents an extended district‐wide enrollment forecasts for a ten year period from 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 and individual school forecasts for a five year period from 2013‐14 to 2017‐18. Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan, Siu, Vivian Year: 2013 The McMinnville School District (MSD) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current study integrates information about MSD and updates the work PRC conducted in 2008 and 2011, providing a snapshot of demographic, housing, and school enrollment patterns and trends. This report also presents an extended district‐wide enrollment forecasts for a ten year period from 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 and individual school forecasts for a five year period from 2013‐14 to 2017‐18. Close

• 14. [Article] Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecast Update 2016‐17 to 2035‐36

  The district‐wide and individual school forecasts have been updated to incorporate 2015‐16 enrollments by school and the latest birth and residential development data, and have been extended to include ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecast Update 2016‐17 to 2035‐36 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 The district‐wide and individual school forecasts have been updated to incorporate 2015‐16 enrollments by school and the latest birth and residential development data, and have been extended to include forecasts for 2025‐26 and 2035‐36. For more demographic information about the Salem‐Keizer School District (SKSD), see “Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2015‐16 to 2024‐25” prepared by Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) in June 2015. Title: Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecast Update 2016‐17 to 2035‐36 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 The district‐wide and individual school forecasts have been updated to incorporate 2015‐16 enrollments by school and the latest birth and residential development data, and have been extended to include forecasts for 2025‐26 and 2035‐36. For more demographic information about the Salem‐Keizer School District (SKSD), see “Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2015‐16 to 2024‐25” prepared by Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) in June 2015. Close

• 15. [Article] Two Forecasting Models for Portland, Oregon: Hamilton –Perry vs Metroscope

  Presentation focuses on population forecasting models and compares the Metroscope Forecasting Model and the Hamilton-Perry Model.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Two Forecasting Models for Portland, Oregon: Hamilton –Perry vs Metroscope Author: Lycan, Richard Year: 2017 Presentation focuses on population forecasting models and compares the Metroscope Forecasting Model and the Hamilton-Perry Model. Title: Two Forecasting Models for Portland, Oregon: Hamilton –Perry vs Metroscope Author: Lycan, Richard Year: 2017 Presentation focuses on population forecasting models and compares the Metroscope Forecasting Model and the Hamilton-Perry Model. Close

• 16. [Article] Experimental Race Estimates for Oregon: July 1, 1993

  This report provides experimental population estimates by race for Oregon and its counties for July 1, 1993. Estimates of the Hispanic population are also included; Hispanics are an ethnic group and may ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Experimental Race Estimates for Oregon: July 1, 1993 Author: Wineberg, Howard, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1996 This report provides experimental population estimates by race for Oregon and its counties for July 1, 1993. Estimates of the Hispanic population are also included; Hispanics are an ethnic group and may be of any race. Title: Experimental Race Estimates for Oregon: July 1, 1993 Author: Wineberg, Howard, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1996 This report provides experimental population estimates by race for Oregon and its counties for July 1, 1993. Estimates of the Hispanic population are also included; Hispanics are an ethnic group and may be of any race. Close

• 17. [Article] Population Estimates of Counties and Incorporated Cities of Oregon

  This report contains estimates for each of the thirty-six counties and the 239 incorporated cities of Oregon. The populations of 10 cities in the state were enumerated under the supervision of the Center ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Estimates of Counties and Incorporated Cities of Oregon Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1963 This report contains estimates for each of the thirty-six counties and the 239 incorporated cities of Oregon. The populations of 10 cities in the state were enumerated under the supervision of the Center for Population Research and Census, between 1963-1974. Title: Population Estimates of Counties and Incorporated Cities of Oregon Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1963 This report contains estimates for each of the thirty-six counties and the 239 incorporated cities of Oregon. The populations of 10 cities in the state were enumerated under the supervision of the Center for Population Research and Census, between 1963-1974. Close

• 18. [Article] 1999 Oregon Population Report

  This report presents population estimates for Oregon and its counties and incorporated cities for July 1, 1999. The ten tables in this report show current 1999 population estimates as well as historical ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: 1999 Oregon Population Report Author: Cai, Qian, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1999 This report presents population estimates for Oregon and its counties and incorporated cities for July 1, 1999. The ten tables in this report show current 1999 population estimates as well as historical data. Title: 1999 Oregon Population Report Author: Cai, Qian, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1999 This report presents population estimates for Oregon and its counties and incorporated cities for July 1, 1999. The ten tables in this report show current 1999 population estimates as well as historical data. Close

• 19. [Article] Population Estimates of Counties and Incorporated Cities of Oregon

  Population enumerations and estimates for counties and incorporated cities of Oregon for 1962-1974. Through 1966 as: Certificate of population enumerations and estimates of counties and incorporated cities ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Estimates of Counties and Incorporated Cities of Oregon Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1962 Population enumerations and estimates for counties and incorporated cities of Oregon for 1962-1974. Through 1966 as: Certificate of population enumerations and estimates of counties and incorporated cities of Oregon Title: Population Estimates of Counties and Incorporated Cities of Oregon Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1962 Population enumerations and estimates for counties and incorporated cities of Oregon for 1962-1974. Through 1966 as: Certificate of population enumerations and estimates of counties and incorporated cities of Oregon Close

• 20. [Article] Grid Based School Enrollment Forecasting

  In this paper we will show how a simple model that is normally based on data for school attendance areas –elementary, middle, and high school, or perhaps planning areas, can be implemented for small grid ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Grid Based School Enrollment Forecasting Author: Lycan, Richard, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2014 In this paper we will show how a simple model that is normally based on data for school attendance areas –elementary, middle, and high school, or perhaps planning areas, can be implemented for small grid areas roughly the size of a city block. Title: Grid Based School Enrollment Forecasting Author: Lycan, Richard, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2014 In this paper we will show how a simple model that is normally based on data for school attendance areas –elementary, middle, and high school, or perhaps planning areas, can be implemented for small grid areas roughly the size of a city block. Close