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• 1. [Article] Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity

  Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Close

• 2. [Article] Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests Author: D’Amato, A.W., Westfall, J.A., Oswalt, C.M., Zhu, K., Lintz, H.E., Walters, B.F., Woodall, C.W. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.elsevier.com/. Title: Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests Author: D’Amato, A.W., Westfall, J.A., Oswalt, C.M., Zhu, K., Lintz, H.E., Walters, B.F., Woodall, C.W. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.elsevier.com/. Close

• 3. [Article] Evolutionary Biology for the 21st Century

  This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public Library of Science and can be found at: http://www.plos.org/.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evolutionary Biology for the 21st Century Author: Orr, H. Allen, Hibbett, David, Hoekstra, Hopi E., Brodie, E. D. III, Turner, Thomas L., Mindell, David P., Soltis, Pamela S., Arnold, Stevan J., Monteiro, Antonia, Bejerano, Gill, Petrov, Dmitri A., Renner, Susanne S., Moritz, Craig, Losos, Jonathan B., Ricklefs, Robert E. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public Library of Science and can be found at: http://www.plos.org/. Title: Evolutionary Biology for the 21st Century Author: Orr, H. Allen, Hibbett, David, Hoekstra, Hopi E., Brodie, E. D. III, Turner, Thomas L., Mindell, David P., Soltis, Pamela S., Arnold, Stevan J., Monteiro, Antonia, Bejerano, Gill, Petrov, Dmitri A., Renner, Susanne S., Moritz, Craig, Losos, Jonathan B., Ricklefs, Robert E. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public Library of Science and can be found at: http://www.plos.org/. Close

• 4. [Article] The idiosyncrasies of place: geographic variation in the climate–distribution relationships of the American pika

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Ecological ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The idiosyncrasies of place: geographic variation in the climate–distribution relationships of the American pika Author: Rodhouse, Thomas J., Wolff, Susan, Epps, Clinton W., Jeffress, Mackenzie R., Ray, Chris To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Ecological Society of America and can be found at: http://esa.org/. Title: The idiosyncrasies of place: geographic variation in the climate–distribution relationships of the American pika Author: Rodhouse, Thomas J., Wolff, Susan, Epps, Clinton W., Jeffress, Mackenzie R., Ray, Chris To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Ecological Society of America and can be found at: http://esa.org/. Close

• 5. [Article] Adapting to Climate Change on Western Public Lands: Addressing the Ecological Effects of Domestic, Wild, and Feral Ungulates

  NEWS COVERAGE: A news release based on this journal publication, which is written for a lay audience and has been approved by an author of the study, is available online: http://bit.ly/XFBYe2

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Adapting to Climate Change on Western Public Lands: Addressing the Ecological Effects of Domestic, Wild, and Feral Ungulates Author: DellaSala, Dominick A., Donahue, Deborah L., Rhodes, Jonathan J., O'Brien, Mary H., Beschta, Robert L., Fleischner, Thomas L., Karr, James R., Deacon-Williams, Cindy NEWS COVERAGE: A news release based on this journal publication, which is written for a lay audience and has been approved by an author of the study, is available online: http://bit.ly/XFBYe2 Title: Adapting to Climate Change on Western Public Lands: Addressing the Ecological Effects of Domestic, Wild, and Feral Ungulates Author: DellaSala, Dominick A., Donahue, Deborah L., Rhodes, Jonathan J., O'Brien, Mary H., Beschta, Robert L., Fleischner, Thomas L., Karr, James R., Deacon-Williams, Cindy NEWS COVERAGE: A news release based on this journal publication, which is written for a lay audience and has been approved by an author of the study, is available online: http://bit.ly/XFBYe2 Close

• 6. [Article] Current and Future Land Use around a Nationwide Protected Area Network

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Current and Future Land Use around a Nationwide Protected Area Network Author: Plantinga, Andrew J., Heglund, Patricia J., Thogmartin, Wayne E., Hamilton, Christopher M., Martinuzzi, Sebastian, Pidgeon, Anna M., Radeloff, Volker C., Lewis, David J. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public Library of Science and can be found at: http://www.plos.org/. Title: Current and Future Land Use around a Nationwide Protected Area Network Author: Plantinga, Andrew J., Heglund, Patricia J., Thogmartin, Wayne E., Hamilton, Christopher M., Martinuzzi, Sebastian, Pidgeon, Anna M., Radeloff, Volker C., Lewis, David J. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Public Library of Science and can be found at: http://www.plos.org/. Close

• 7. [Article] Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Modeling in the Marine Environment : Humpback Whale Genetic Variability and Seabird Distributions in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean

  The rapid decline of marine ecosystems worldwide and the failure of traditional single species management pushed for the development of ecosystem-based conservation measures such as marine protected areas ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Modeling in the Marine Environment : Humpback Whale Genetic Variability and Seabird Distributions in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean Author: Dick, Dorothy Marie The rapid decline of marine ecosystems worldwide and the failure of traditional single species management pushed for the development of ecosystem-based conservation measures such as marine protected areas (MPA) to slow the loss of marine biodiversity. One approach to MPA creation advocates targeting marine megafauna (e.g., marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, etc.) and assumes protective measures for megafauna will extend safeguards to areas of ocean productivity and other species dependent on that productivity. The marine spatial planning (MSP) process requires spatially-explicit information resulting in the development of map products used in planning and decision making. The crux of map creation is georeferenced species occurrence data. This three-part study takes a multidisciplinary approach, combining geography, marine conservation, molecular ecology, and spatial ecology to explore species occurrence data and development of novel geoanalytical tools, spatial analyses, and predictive modeling to inform the MSP process and help design more effective MPA networks for North Pacific marine megafauna (humpback whales and seabirds). Chapter 2 includes the development of geneGIS, a customized Arc Marine data model and suite of computational GIS tools to explore, analyze, and visualize spatially-explicit, individual-based records from North Pacific humpback whale photo-identification and genetic data. Unlike most occurrence data, this presence-only dataset is enriched by the addition of genetic information enabling mangers to factor in population structure and genetic diversity, and thus maximize species resilience, when designing MPAs. Chapters 3 and 4 focus on using presence-absence data to develop spatially-explicit ecological models to identify multispecies seabird foraging aggregations (hotspots) and assess how these locations may shift with climate change within the California Current System. Key to both components is an improved understanding of what factors influence the presence of a species and/or its genetic variability to enable present day planning and design of MPA networks to ensure adequate protection will be in place now and as climate change progresses. This information can also be used to inform policy decisions by adapting strategies to reduce non-climate stressors such as fishery pressures and coastal development in areas predicted to be important to marine species in the future. Title: Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Modeling in the Marine Environment : Humpback Whale Genetic Variability and Seabird Distributions in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean Author: Dick, Dorothy Marie The rapid decline of marine ecosystems worldwide and the failure of traditional single species management pushed for the development of ecosystem-based conservation measures such as marine protected areas (MPA) to slow the loss of marine biodiversity. One approach to MPA creation advocates targeting marine megafauna (e.g., marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, etc.) and assumes protective measures for megafauna will extend safeguards to areas of ocean productivity and other species dependent on that productivity. The marine spatial planning (MSP) process requires spatially-explicit information resulting in the development of map products used in planning and decision making. The crux of map creation is georeferenced species occurrence data. This three-part study takes a multidisciplinary approach, combining geography, marine conservation, molecular ecology, and spatial ecology to explore species occurrence data and development of novel geoanalytical tools, spatial analyses, and predictive modeling to inform the MSP process and help design more effective MPA networks for North Pacific marine megafauna (humpback whales and seabirds). Chapter 2 includes the development of geneGIS, a customized Arc Marine data model and suite of computational GIS tools to explore, analyze, and visualize spatially-explicit, individual-based records from North Pacific humpback whale photo-identification and genetic data. Unlike most occurrence data, this presence-only dataset is enriched by the addition of genetic information enabling mangers to factor in population structure and genetic diversity, and thus maximize species resilience, when designing MPAs. Chapters 3 and 4 focus on using presence-absence data to develop spatially-explicit ecological models to identify multispecies seabird foraging aggregations (hotspots) and assess how these locations may shift with climate change within the California Current System. Key to both components is an improved understanding of what factors influence the presence of a species and/or its genetic variability to enable present day planning and design of MPA networks to ensure adequate protection will be in place now and as climate change progresses. This information can also be used to inform policy decisions by adapting strategies to reduce non-climate stressors such as fishery pressures and coastal development in areas predicted to be important to marine species in the future. Close

• 8. [Article] Climate Change Impacts on the Productivity and Community Dynamics of Pacific Northwest Prairie Systems

  1 page poster

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Impacts on the Productivity and Community Dynamics of Pacific Northwest Prairie Systems Author: Okotie-Oyekan, Aimee Year: 2017 1 page poster Title: Climate Change Impacts on the Productivity and Community Dynamics of Pacific Northwest Prairie Systems Author: Okotie-Oyekan, Aimee Year: 2017 1 page poster Close

• 9. [Article] Essays on the Recreational Value of Avian Biodiversity

  This dissertation uses a convenience sample of members of eBird, a large citizen science project maintained by the Cornell University's Laboratory of Ornithology, to explore the value of avian biodiversity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Essays on the Recreational Value of Avian Biodiversity Author: Kolstoe, Sonja Year: 2016 This dissertation uses a convenience sample of members of eBird, a large citizen science project maintained by the Cornell University's Laboratory of Ornithology, to explore the value of avian biodiversity to bird watchers. Panel data (i.e. longitudinal data) are highly desirable for preference estimation. Fortuitously, the diaries of birding excursions by eBird members provide a rich source of spatial data on trips taken, over time by the same individuals, to a variety of birding destinations. Origin and destination data can be combined with exogenous species prevalence information. These combined data sources permit estimation of utility-theoretic choice models that allow derivation of the marginal utilities of avian biodiversity measures as well as the marginal utility of net income (i.e. consumption of other goods and services). Ratios of these marginal utilities yield marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) estimates for numbers of bird species (or numbers of species of different types, in richer specifications). MWTP for levels of other attributes of birding destinations are also derived (e.g. ecosystem type, management regime, seasonal variations, a time trend).\\ The chapters are organized as follows: Chapter 2 is a stand-alone paper that demonstrates the feasibility of a travel-cost based random utility model with the eBird data. This chapter focuses on measuring the total number of bird species at each birding hotspot in Washington and Oregon states. This chapter does not differentiate among types of birders beyond using their recent birding activities in an analysis of habit formation or variety-seeking behavior. For this model, beyond past behavior, a representative consumer is postulated. Chapter 3 starts from the basic specifications identified in Chapter 2 and explores heterogeneous preferences among consumers as well as their preferences for species richness and for different categories of birds. This chapter explores whether different types of birds are relatively more attractive to different types of birders (for example, by gender or by age or by neighborhood characteristics and educational attainment). Chapter 4 is an extension of the work in Chapter 3 to explore how changing site attributes in the face of climate change effects birder welfare. This dissertation includes previously unpublished co-authored material. Title: Essays on the Recreational Value of Avian Biodiversity Author: Kolstoe, Sonja Year: 2016 This dissertation uses a convenience sample of members of eBird, a large citizen science project maintained by the Cornell University's Laboratory of Ornithology, to explore the value of avian biodiversity to bird watchers. Panel data (i.e. longitudinal data) are highly desirable for preference estimation. Fortuitously, the diaries of birding excursions by eBird members provide a rich source of spatial data on trips taken, over time by the same individuals, to a variety of birding destinations. Origin and destination data can be combined with exogenous species prevalence information. These combined data sources permit estimation of utility-theoretic choice models that allow derivation of the marginal utilities of avian biodiversity measures as well as the marginal utility of net income (i.e. consumption of other goods and services). Ratios of these marginal utilities yield marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) estimates for numbers of bird species (or numbers of species of different types, in richer specifications). MWTP for levels of other attributes of birding destinations are also derived (e.g. ecosystem type, management regime, seasonal variations, a time trend).\\ The chapters are organized as follows: Chapter 2 is a stand-alone paper that demonstrates the feasibility of a travel-cost based random utility model with the eBird data. This chapter focuses on measuring the total number of bird species at each birding hotspot in Washington and Oregon states. This chapter does not differentiate among types of birders beyond using their recent birding activities in an analysis of habit formation or variety-seeking behavior. For this model, beyond past behavior, a representative consumer is postulated. Chapter 3 starts from the basic specifications identified in Chapter 2 and explores heterogeneous preferences among consumers as well as their preferences for species richness and for different categories of birds. This chapter explores whether different types of birds are relatively more attractive to different types of birders (for example, by gender or by age or by neighborhood characteristics and educational attainment). Chapter 4 is an extension of the work in Chapter 3 to explore how changing site attributes in the face of climate change effects birder welfare. This dissertation includes previously unpublished co-authored material. Close

• 10. [Article] Human effects on ecological connectivity in aquatic ecosystems: Integrating scientific approaches to support management and mitigation

  This is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/science-of-the-t...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Human effects on ecological connectivity in aquatic ecosystems: Integrating scientific approaches to support management and mitigation Author: Riginos, Cynthia, Nagelkerken, Ivan, Finn, Debra S., Hughes, Jane M., Harrod, Chris, Crook, David A., Jennings, Simon, Gillanders, Bronwyn M., Hansen, Michael M., Fry, Brian, Kilada, Raouf W., Erős, Tibor, Allendorf, Frederick W., Hermoso, Virgilio, Page, Timothy J., Hadwen, Wade L., Lowe, Winsor H. This is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/science-of-the-total-environment/ Title: Human effects on ecological connectivity in aquatic ecosystems: Integrating scientific approaches to support management and mitigation Author: Riginos, Cynthia, Nagelkerken, Ivan, Finn, Debra S., Hughes, Jane M., Harrod, Chris, Crook, David A., Jennings, Simon, Gillanders, Bronwyn M., Hansen, Michael M., Fry, Brian, Kilada, Raouf W., Erős, Tibor, Allendorf, Frederick W., Hermoso, Virgilio, Page, Timothy J., Hadwen, Wade L., Lowe, Winsor H. This is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/science-of-the-total-environment/ Close