Search

Search Results

• 11. [Article] Utilizing Humidity and Temperature Data to Advance Monitoring and Prediction of Meteorological Drought

  The fraction of land area over the Continental United States experiencing extreme hot and dry conditions has been increasing over the past several decades, consistent with expectation from anthropogenic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Utilizing Humidity and Temperature Data to Advance Monitoring and Prediction of Meteorological Drought Author: Behrangi, Ali, Loikith, Paul C., Fetzer, Eric J., Nguyen, Hai M., Granger, Stephanie L. Year: 2015 The fraction of land area over the Continental United States experiencing extreme hot and dry conditions has been increasing over the past several decades, consistent with expectation from anthropogenic climate change. A clear concurrent change in precipitation, however, has not been confirmed. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), combining temperature and humidity, is utilized here as an indicator of the background atmospheric conditions associated with meteorological drought. Furthermore, atmospheric conditions associated with warm season drought events are assessed by partitioning associated VPD anomalies into the temperature and humidity components. This approach suggests that the concurrence of anomalously high temperature and low humidity was an important driver of the rapid development and evolution of the exceptionally severe 2011 Texas and the 2012 Great Plains droughts. By classification of a decade of extreme drought events and tracking them back in time, it was found that near surface atmospheric temperature and humidity add essential information to the commonly used precipitation-based drought indicators and can advance efforts to determine the timing of drought onset and its severity. Title: Utilizing Humidity and Temperature Data to Advance Monitoring and Prediction of Meteorological Drought Author: Behrangi, Ali, Loikith, Paul C., Fetzer, Eric J., Nguyen, Hai M., Granger, Stephanie L. Year: 2015 The fraction of land area over the Continental United States experiencing extreme hot and dry conditions has been increasing over the past several decades, consistent with expectation from anthropogenic climate change. A clear concurrent change in precipitation, however, has not been confirmed. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), combining temperature and humidity, is utilized here as an indicator of the background atmospheric conditions associated with meteorological drought. Furthermore, atmospheric conditions associated with warm season drought events are assessed by partitioning associated VPD anomalies into the temperature and humidity components. This approach suggests that the concurrence of anomalously high temperature and low humidity was an important driver of the rapid development and evolution of the exceptionally severe 2011 Texas and the 2012 Great Plains droughts. By classification of a decade of extreme drought events and tracking them back in time, it was found that near surface atmospheric temperature and humidity add essential information to the commonly used precipitation-based drought indicators and can advance efforts to determine the timing of drought onset and its severity. Close

• 12. [Article] Trends in streamflow from old growth forested watersheds in the western Cascades

  Increasing temperatures in western North America are expected to result in a decline in winter snowpacks, earlier snowmelt, and a shift in the timing of streamflows, with an increasing fraction of streamflows ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Trends in streamflow from old growth forested watersheds in the western Cascades Author: Moore, Kathleen M Increasing temperatures in western North America are expected to result in a decline in winter snowpacks, earlier snowmelt, and a shift in the timing of streamflows, with an increasing fraction of streamflows occurring earlier in the water year and drier conditions during the summer. However, few streamflow datasets have associated climate and vegetation records adequate to interpret changes in climate, forest processes, and their consequences for streamflows. This study examined long-term streamflow records from three headwater watersheds in old growth forest at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, to seek evidence of trends and investigate possible explanations for these changes. The three small (8.5-60 ha) watersheds (WS2, WS8, and WS9) range in elevation from 432-1182 m and have streamflow records dating back to 1953, 1964, and 1969 respectively. Spring and summer average minimum temperatures have increased over the study period, while April 1st SWE at Santiam Junction has declined significantly. Although precipitation has remained unchanged over the period of study, runoff ratios have declined in spring (March through May) at rates ranging from 25.4% (WS2) to 41.2% (WS8) over the 40- to 50-year periods of streamflow record. Total declines in spring runoff equate to 1.13, 2.13, and 1.23 mm day-1 at WS2, WS8, and WS9, respectively. However, neither winter nor summer runoff ratios have changed significantly, nor has there been a significant shift in the date of water year median flow over the period of record. Winter and spring runoff ratios are negatively related to vapor pressure deficit and/or temperature in the corresponding season, while summer runoff 2 ratios are positively related to vapor pressure deficit and/or temperature. Overall, the findings of this study most strongly support the hypothesis that warming temperatures have resulted in a reduction in spring snowpacks, with an earlier onset of evapotranspiration in the spring and a reduction in evapotranspiration during the summer, due to stomatal closure when VPD becomes sufficiently large or soil moisture becomes limited. Title: Trends in streamflow from old growth forested watersheds in the western Cascades Author: Moore, Kathleen M Increasing temperatures in western North America are expected to result in a decline in winter snowpacks, earlier snowmelt, and a shift in the timing of streamflows, with an increasing fraction of streamflows occurring earlier in the water year and drier conditions during the summer. However, few streamflow datasets have associated climate and vegetation records adequate to interpret changes in climate, forest processes, and their consequences for streamflows. This study examined long-term streamflow records from three headwater watersheds in old growth forest at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, to seek evidence of trends and investigate possible explanations for these changes. The three small (8.5-60 ha) watersheds (WS2, WS8, and WS9) range in elevation from 432-1182 m and have streamflow records dating back to 1953, 1964, and 1969 respectively. Spring and summer average minimum temperatures have increased over the study period, while April 1st SWE at Santiam Junction has declined significantly. Although precipitation has remained unchanged over the period of study, runoff ratios have declined in spring (March through May) at rates ranging from 25.4% (WS2) to 41.2% (WS8) over the 40- to 50-year periods of streamflow record. Total declines in spring runoff equate to 1.13, 2.13, and 1.23 mm day-1 at WS2, WS8, and WS9, respectively. However, neither winter nor summer runoff ratios have changed significantly, nor has there been a significant shift in the date of water year median flow over the period of record. Winter and spring runoff ratios are negatively related to vapor pressure deficit and/or temperature in the corresponding season, while summer runoff 2 ratios are positively related to vapor pressure deficit and/or temperature. Overall, the findings of this study most strongly support the hypothesis that warming temperatures have resulted in a reduction in spring snowpacks, with an earlier onset of evapotranspiration in the spring and a reduction in evapotranspiration during the summer, due to stomatal closure when VPD becomes sufficiently large or soil moisture becomes limited. Close

• 13. [Article] Climate Change and Freshwater Resources in Oregon

  Climate change will affect various sectors of water resources in Oregon in the 21st century. The observed trends in streamflow show significant declines in September flow and, although not significant, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change and Freshwater Resources in Oregon Author: Chang, Heejun, Jones, Julie Year: 2010 Climate change will affect various sectors of water resources in Oregon in the 21st century. The observed trends in streamflow show significant declines in September flow and, although not significant, increases in March flow in many transient rain-snow basins. These streamflow trends are associated with rising temperature and coincident declines in snowpack in spring in the latter half of the 20th century. While there are no distinct trends in high precipitation events, such events are associated with climate variability such as ENSO and PDO. Effects of ENSO and PDO are more pronounced at the beginning and end of the wet season in the Willamette River basin. The amount and seasonality of water supply is projected to shift as the distribution of precipitation changes and temperatures rise. Higher summer air temperatures accompanied by reduced precipitation are projected to increase evapotranspiration and decrease stream flow in summer. Although there are no distinct spatial patterns of changes in precipitation and temperature across the State in the 21st century (uniform increase in temperature across the region), significant regional variations do exist. The magnitude of change depends on the importance of snow in the current water budget, so projected changes are greater for mountainous regions than for low-elevation areas. Transient rain-snow basins, such as those in the Western Cascade basins, are projected to be more sensitive to these changes in precipitation and temperature. The high Cascade basins that are primarily fed by deep groundwater systems could sustain low flow during summer months. Basins in the east of the Cascades are projected to have low summer flow in a distant future as groundwater recharge declines over time. April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) will decline and the center timing of runoff will become earlier in transient rain-snow basins as snowpack is projected to decline consistently in the 21st century. These model projections should be viewed with caution for several reasons when considering climate change impacts on water supply in Oregon. First, this chapter shows that few consistent trends in runoff are apparent in streamflow records from Oregon; instead, the direction and magnitude of change in streamflow varies by season, by basin size, and among ecoregions in Oregon. Second, observed streamflow trends (e.g., declining flows in summer, or in September) may be explained by factors that may not be directly related to global climate change. For example, recent low-flow years are attributable to low precipitation years (especially 2001 and 2005) and perhaps to interannual variations in snowpack associated with cyclical variation in ocean temperatures, while long-term decreases in summer flows are attributable to the combination of summer precipitation decline and increasing water withdrawals for consumptive use. Third, model projections do not account for possible resilience and adaptations in natural ecosystems that may alter water use and lead to smaller than expected changes in streamflow. More work is needed on vegetation responses to climate variability, the interactions between soil water and vegetation, and the relationship between streamflow and precipitation (runoff ratios) in large basins. Title: Climate Change and Freshwater Resources in Oregon Author: Chang, Heejun, Jones, Julie Year: 2010 Climate change will affect various sectors of water resources in Oregon in the 21st century. The observed trends in streamflow show significant declines in September flow and, although not significant, increases in March flow in many transient rain-snow basins. These streamflow trends are associated with rising temperature and coincident declines in snowpack in spring in the latter half of the 20th century. While there are no distinct trends in high precipitation events, such events are associated with climate variability such as ENSO and PDO. Effects of ENSO and PDO are more pronounced at the beginning and end of the wet season in the Willamette River basin. The amount and seasonality of water supply is projected to shift as the distribution of precipitation changes and temperatures rise. Higher summer air temperatures accompanied by reduced precipitation are projected to increase evapotranspiration and decrease stream flow in summer. Although there are no distinct spatial patterns of changes in precipitation and temperature across the State in the 21st century (uniform increase in temperature across the region), significant regional variations do exist. The magnitude of change depends on the importance of snow in the current water budget, so projected changes are greater for mountainous regions than for low-elevation areas. Transient rain-snow basins, such as those in the Western Cascade basins, are projected to be more sensitive to these changes in precipitation and temperature. The high Cascade basins that are primarily fed by deep groundwater systems could sustain low flow during summer months. Basins in the east of the Cascades are projected to have low summer flow in a distant future as groundwater recharge declines over time. April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) will decline and the center timing of runoff will become earlier in transient rain-snow basins as snowpack is projected to decline consistently in the 21st century. These model projections should be viewed with caution for several reasons when considering climate change impacts on water supply in Oregon. First, this chapter shows that few consistent trends in runoff are apparent in streamflow records from Oregon; instead, the direction and magnitude of change in streamflow varies by season, by basin size, and among ecoregions in Oregon. Second, observed streamflow trends (e.g., declining flows in summer, or in September) may be explained by factors that may not be directly related to global climate change. For example, recent low-flow years are attributable to low precipitation years (especially 2001 and 2005) and perhaps to interannual variations in snowpack associated with cyclical variation in ocean temperatures, while long-term decreases in summer flows are attributable to the combination of summer precipitation decline and increasing water withdrawals for consumptive use. Third, model projections do not account for possible resilience and adaptations in natural ecosystems that may alter water use and lead to smaller than expected changes in streamflow. More work is needed on vegetation responses to climate variability, the interactions between soil water and vegetation, and the relationship between streamflow and precipitation (runoff ratios) in large basins. Close

• 14. [Article] Impact of diurnal temperature variation on grape berry development, proanthocyanidin accumulation, and the expression of flavonoid pathway genes

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Oxford ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impact of diurnal temperature variation on grape berry development, proanthocyanidin accumulation, and the expression of flavonoid pathway genes Author: Gambetta, Greg A., Matthews, Mark A., Cohen, Seth D., Kennedy, James A., Tarara, Julie M. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Oxford University Press and can be found at: http://www.oxfordjournals.org/ Title: Impact of diurnal temperature variation on grape berry development, proanthocyanidin accumulation, and the expression of flavonoid pathway genes Author: Gambetta, Greg A., Matthews, Mark A., Cohen, Seth D., Kennedy, James A., Tarara, Julie M. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Oxford University Press and can be found at: http://www.oxfordjournals.org/ Close

• 15. [Article] Measuring the Effects of Parking Lots and Tree Shading on Microscale Urban Heat Islands

  55 pages. A thesis presented to the Department of Planning, Public Policy, and Management and the Clark Honors College of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Measuring the Effects of Parking Lots and Tree Shading on Microscale Urban Heat Islands Author: Goodrich, Elliot Year: 2016 55 pages. A thesis presented to the Department of Planning, Public Policy, and Management and the Clark Honors College of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Bachelor of Arts, Winter 2016. Title: Measuring the Effects of Parking Lots and Tree Shading on Microscale Urban Heat Islands Author: Goodrich, Elliot Year: 2016 55 pages. A thesis presented to the Department of Planning, Public Policy, and Management and the Clark Honors College of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Bachelor of Arts, Winter 2016. Close

• 16. [Article] An Analysis of the Impact of Global Warming on Hurricane Activity in the United States

  This paper discusses the influence of global warming on ocean temperatures, and explains how vertical wind shear affects hurricane formation. It explores the scientific arguments against linking global ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: An Analysis of the Impact of Global Warming on Hurricane Activity in the United States Author: Senzer, Jesse Year: 2012 This paper discusses the influence of global warming on ocean temperatures, and explains how vertical wind shear affects hurricane formation. It explores the scientific arguments against linking global warming to increased hurricanes, that ocean warming increases vertical wind shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, and that current/recent American hurricane trends fall within the realm of natural, multidecadal oscillations. Arguments supporting the link between global warming and hurricanes are addressed with climate modeling that links sea surface temperature (SST) increase to anthropogenic causes. It discusses SST’s influencing hurricane activity globally, if not locally to the U.S., and points to the need for consensus and action. Title: An Analysis of the Impact of Global Warming on Hurricane Activity in the United States Author: Senzer, Jesse Year: 2012 This paper discusses the influence of global warming on ocean temperatures, and explains how vertical wind shear affects hurricane formation. It explores the scientific arguments against linking global warming to increased hurricanes, that ocean warming increases vertical wind shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, and that current/recent American hurricane trends fall within the realm of natural, multidecadal oscillations. Arguments supporting the link between global warming and hurricanes are addressed with climate modeling that links sea surface temperature (SST) increase to anthropogenic causes. It discusses SST’s influencing hurricane activity globally, if not locally to the U.S., and points to the need for consensus and action. Close

• 17. [Article] Ocean Temperature Variability during the Late Pleistocene

  This dissertation explores one overarching question relevant to the paleoclimate of the latest Pleistocene glacial cycle (approximately the last 130,000 years): “How did spatial and temporal evolution ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Ocean Temperature Variability during the Late Pleistocene Author: Hoffman, Jeremy Scott This dissertation explores one overarching question relevant to the paleoclimate of the latest Pleistocene glacial cycle (approximately the last 130,000 years): “How did spatial and temporal evolution of ocean temperature, both at the surface and interior, relate to other parts of the climate system in the late Pleistocene?” Results from three studies are presented that seek to address longstanding questions in paleoceanography and paleoclimatology for the late Pleistocene using a combination of novel and accepted statistical and geochemical analysis techniques and leveraging comparisons with available global climate model data. The last interglaciation (LIG; ~129-116 ka) was the most recent period in Earth’s history with higher-than-present global sea level (≥6-9 m) under similar-to-preindustrial concentrations of atmospheric CO₂. This suggests that additional feedbacks related to albedo, insolation, and ocean overturning circulation may have resulted in the apparent warming required to cause the higher sea level. Our understanding of how much warmer the LIG was relative to the present interglaciation remains uncertain, however, with current estimates suggesting that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were 0-2°C warmer than late-20th century average global temperatures. We present a global compilation of proxy-based annual SST spanning the LIG. Using Monte Carlo and Bayesian techniques to propagate uncertainties in age-model and proxy-based SST reconstructions, our results quantify the spatial timing, amplitude, and uncertainty in global and regional SST change during the LIG. Our conclusions suggest that the LIG surface ocean was indistinguishable from the average surface ocean temperatures observed for the last two decades (1995-2014). This may ultimately imply that the Earth is currently committed to ≥6-9m of equilibrium sea-level rise. Although the LIG is not an analogue for present and future climate change due to the large differences in seasonal orbital insolation and absence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas radiative forcing, it provides an opportunity to test the ability of global climate models to simulate the mechanisms and climate feedbacks responsible for the warmer climate and higher global mean sea level during the LIG. However, when forced only by LIG greenhouse gas concentrations and insolation changes, climate models suggest that the annual mean temperature response was not significantly different from preindustrial control simulations. We present the first multi-model and multiscenario ensemble of transient and equilibrium global climate modeling results spanning the LIG. We show, using a novel model-data comparison framework, that these scenario-specific model results exhibit regionally independent agreement with ocean basin-specific proxy-based SST stacks. This result ultimately implies structural uncertainties and/or misrepresentations of climate feedbacks in the existing suite of climate model simulations, or underestimations of additional proxy-based SST uncertainties. Our conclusions suggest a new target LIG time period for future model-data comparisons and highlight the need for higher resolution transient climate modeling of the LIG and its dependence on meltwater input to the high latitude oceans during the preceding deglaciation. Few discoveries have stimulated the paleoclimate community more so than Heinrich events. Nevertheless, the cause of Heinrich events, characterized by a large flux of icebergs sourced from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream into the North Atlantic, remains debated. Commonly attributed to internal ice-sheet instability, the occurrence of Heinrich events during the coldest intervals of the last glacial cycle instead suggests an external climate control. We expand on recent studies that have shown that incursions of warm subsurface waters into the intermediate depth North Atlantic Ocean destabilized an ice shelf fronting the Hudson Strait Ice Stream, causing a Heinrich event. We present new surface- and bottom-water stable isotope, trace metal, and sedimentary records from two cores taken along the Labrador margin that further support subsurface warming as a trigger of Hudson Strait Heinrich events. We further relate these changes to other sediment core records from the North Atlantic and transient deglacial climate modeling results to show that subsurface warming was ubiquitous across the intermediate North Atlantic during the early part of the last deglaciation and was most likely caused by a preceding reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Title: Ocean Temperature Variability during the Late Pleistocene Author: Hoffman, Jeremy Scott This dissertation explores one overarching question relevant to the paleoclimate of the latest Pleistocene glacial cycle (approximately the last 130,000 years): “How did spatial and temporal evolution of ocean temperature, both at the surface and interior, relate to other parts of the climate system in the late Pleistocene?” Results from three studies are presented that seek to address longstanding questions in paleoceanography and paleoclimatology for the late Pleistocene using a combination of novel and accepted statistical and geochemical analysis techniques and leveraging comparisons with available global climate model data. The last interglaciation (LIG; ~129-116 ka) was the most recent period in Earth’s history with higher-than-present global sea level (≥6-9 m) under similar-to-preindustrial concentrations of atmospheric CO₂. This suggests that additional feedbacks related to albedo, insolation, and ocean overturning circulation may have resulted in the apparent warming required to cause the higher sea level. Our understanding of how much warmer the LIG was relative to the present interglaciation remains uncertain, however, with current estimates suggesting that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were 0-2°C warmer than late-20th century average global temperatures. We present a global compilation of proxy-based annual SST spanning the LIG. Using Monte Carlo and Bayesian techniques to propagate uncertainties in age-model and proxy-based SST reconstructions, our results quantify the spatial timing, amplitude, and uncertainty in global and regional SST change during the LIG. Our conclusions suggest that the LIG surface ocean was indistinguishable from the average surface ocean temperatures observed for the last two decades (1995-2014). This may ultimately imply that the Earth is currently committed to ≥6-9m of equilibrium sea-level rise. Although the LIG is not an analogue for present and future climate change due to the large differences in seasonal orbital insolation and absence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas radiative forcing, it provides an opportunity to test the ability of global climate models to simulate the mechanisms and climate feedbacks responsible for the warmer climate and higher global mean sea level during the LIG. However, when forced only by LIG greenhouse gas concentrations and insolation changes, climate models suggest that the annual mean temperature response was not significantly different from preindustrial control simulations. We present the first multi-model and multiscenario ensemble of transient and equilibrium global climate modeling results spanning the LIG. We show, using a novel model-data comparison framework, that these scenario-specific model results exhibit regionally independent agreement with ocean basin-specific proxy-based SST stacks. This result ultimately implies structural uncertainties and/or misrepresentations of climate feedbacks in the existing suite of climate model simulations, or underestimations of additional proxy-based SST uncertainties. Our conclusions suggest a new target LIG time period for future model-data comparisons and highlight the need for higher resolution transient climate modeling of the LIG and its dependence on meltwater input to the high latitude oceans during the preceding deglaciation. Few discoveries have stimulated the paleoclimate community more so than Heinrich events. Nevertheless, the cause of Heinrich events, characterized by a large flux of icebergs sourced from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream into the North Atlantic, remains debated. Commonly attributed to internal ice-sheet instability, the occurrence of Heinrich events during the coldest intervals of the last glacial cycle instead suggests an external climate control. We expand on recent studies that have shown that incursions of warm subsurface waters into the intermediate depth North Atlantic Ocean destabilized an ice shelf fronting the Hudson Strait Ice Stream, causing a Heinrich event. We present new surface- and bottom-water stable isotope, trace metal, and sedimentary records from two cores taken along the Labrador margin that further support subsurface warming as a trigger of Hudson Strait Heinrich events. We further relate these changes to other sediment core records from the North Atlantic and transient deglacial climate modeling results to show that subsurface warming was ubiquitous across the intermediate North Atlantic during the early part of the last deglaciation and was most likely caused by a preceding reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Close

• 18. [Article] The Urban Heat Island Mitigation Impact Screening Tool (MIST)

  A web-based software tool has been developed to assist urban planners and air quality management officials in assessing the potential of urban heat island mitigation strategies to affect the urban climate, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Urban Heat Island Mitigation Impact Screening Tool (MIST) Author: Sailor, David J., Dietsch, Nikolaas Year: 2007 A web-based software tool has been developed to assist urban planners and air quality management officials in assessing the potential of urban heat island mitigation strategies to affect the urban climate, air quality, and energy consumption within their cities. The user of the tool can select from over 170 US cities for which to conduct the analysis, and can specify city-wide changes in surface reflectivity and/or vegetative cover. The Mitigation Impact Screening Tool (MIST) then extrapolates results from a suite of simulations for 20 cities to estimate air temperature changes associated with the specified changes in surface characteristics for the selected city. Alternatively the user can simply define a nominal air temperature reduction that they hope to achieve with an unspecified mitigation scenario. These air temperature changes are then input to energy and ozone models to estimate the impact that the mitigation action may have on the selected city. The results presented by MIST include a high degree of uncertainty and are intended only as a first-order estimate that urban planners can use to assess the viability of heat island mitigation strategies for their cities. As appropriate, MIST analyses should be supplemented by more detailed modeling. Title: The Urban Heat Island Mitigation Impact Screening Tool (MIST) Author: Sailor, David J., Dietsch, Nikolaas Year: 2007 A web-based software tool has been developed to assist urban planners and air quality management officials in assessing the potential of urban heat island mitigation strategies to affect the urban climate, air quality, and energy consumption within their cities. The user of the tool can select from over 170 US cities for which to conduct the analysis, and can specify city-wide changes in surface reflectivity and/or vegetative cover. The Mitigation Impact Screening Tool (MIST) then extrapolates results from a suite of simulations for 20 cities to estimate air temperature changes associated with the specified changes in surface characteristics for the selected city. Alternatively the user can simply define a nominal air temperature reduction that they hope to achieve with an unspecified mitigation scenario. These air temperature changes are then input to energy and ozone models to estimate the impact that the mitigation action may have on the selected city. The results presented by MIST include a high degree of uncertainty and are intended only as a first-order estimate that urban planners can use to assess the viability of heat island mitigation strategies for their cities. As appropriate, MIST analyses should be supplemented by more detailed modeling. Close

• 19. [Article] Glacier Change in the North Cascades, Washington: 1900-2009

  Glaciers respond to local climate changes making them important indicators of regional climate change. The North Cascades region of Washington is the most glaciated region in the lower-48 states with approximately ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Glacier Change in the North Cascades, Washington: 1900-2009 Author: Dick, Kristina Amanda Year: 2013 Glaciers respond to local climate changes making them important indicators of regional climate change. The North Cascades region of Washington is the most glaciated region in the lower-48 states with approximately 25% of all glaciers and 40% of the total ice-covered area. While there are many on-going investigations of specific glaciers, little research has addressed the entire glacier cover of the region. A reference inventory of glaciers was derived from a comparison of two different inventories dating to about 1958. The different inventories agree within 93% of total number of glaciers and 94% of total ice-covered area. To quantify glacier change over the past century aerial photographs, topographic maps, and geologic maps were used. In ~1900 total area was about 533.89 ± 22.77 km2 and by 2009 the area was reduced by -56% ± 3% to 236.20 ± 12.60 km2. Most of that change occurred in the first half of the 20th century, between 1900 and 1958, -245.59 ± 25.97 km2 (-46% ± 5%) was lost, followed by a period of stability/growth in mid-century (-1% ± 3% from 1958-1990) then decline since the 1990s (-9% ± 3% from 1990-2009). The century-scale loss is associated with increasing regional temperatures warming in winter and summer; precipitation shows no trend. On a decadal time scale winter precipitation and winter and summer temperatures are important factors correlated with area loss. Topographically, smaller glaciers at lower elevations with steeper slopes and higher mean insolation exhibited greater loss than higher, gentler more shaded glaciers. Title: Glacier Change in the North Cascades, Washington: 1900-2009 Author: Dick, Kristina Amanda Year: 2013 Glaciers respond to local climate changes making them important indicators of regional climate change. The North Cascades region of Washington is the most glaciated region in the lower-48 states with approximately 25% of all glaciers and 40% of the total ice-covered area. While there are many on-going investigations of specific glaciers, little research has addressed the entire glacier cover of the region. A reference inventory of glaciers was derived from a comparison of two different inventories dating to about 1958. The different inventories agree within 93% of total number of glaciers and 94% of total ice-covered area. To quantify glacier change over the past century aerial photographs, topographic maps, and geologic maps were used. In ~1900 total area was about 533.89 ± 22.77 km2 and by 2009 the area was reduced by -56% ± 3% to 236.20 ± 12.60 km2. Most of that change occurred in the first half of the 20th century, between 1900 and 1958, -245.59 ± 25.97 km2 (-46% ± 5%) was lost, followed by a period of stability/growth in mid-century (-1% ± 3% from 1958-1990) then decline since the 1990s (-9% ± 3% from 1990-2009). The century-scale loss is associated with increasing regional temperatures warming in winter and summer; precipitation shows no trend. On a decadal time scale winter precipitation and winter and summer temperatures are important factors correlated with area loss. Topographically, smaller glaciers at lower elevations with steeper slopes and higher mean insolation exhibited greater loss than higher, gentler more shaded glaciers. Close

• 20. [Article] Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

  Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure for the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA) over the next century will have significant impacts on the river basin water balance, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon Author: Turner, David P., Conklin, David R., Vache, Kellie B., Schwartz, Cynthia, Nolin, Anne, Chang, Heejun, Watson, Eric, Bolte, John P. Year: 2016 Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure for the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA) over the next century will have significant impacts on the river basin water balance, notably on the amount of evapotranspiration (ET). Mechanisms of impact on ET will be both direct and indirect, but there is limited understanding of their absolute and relative magnitudes. Here, we developed a spatially explicit, daily time-step, modeling infrastructure to simulate the basin-wide water balance that accounts for meteorological influences, as well as effects mediated by changing vegetation cover type, leaf area, and ecophysiology. Three CMIP5 climate scenarios (Lowclim, Reference, and HighClim) were run for the 2010–2100 period. Besides warmer temperatures, the climate scenarios were characterized by wetter winters and increasing vapor pressure deficits. In the mid-range Reference scenario, our landscape simulation model (Envision) projected a continuation of forest cover on the uplands but a threefold increase in area burned per year. A decline (12–30%) in basin-wide mean leaf area index (LAI) in forests was projected in all scenarios. The lower LAIs drove a corresponding decline in ET. In a sensitivity test, the effect of increasing CO2 on stomatal conductance induced a further substantial decrease (11–18%) in basin-wide mean ET. The net effect of decreases in ET and increases in winter precipitation was an increase in annual streamflow. These results support the inclusion of changes in land cover, land use, LAI, and ecophysiology in efforts to anticipate impacts of climate change on basin-scale water balances. Title: Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon Author: Turner, David P., Conklin, David R., Vache, Kellie B., Schwartz, Cynthia, Nolin, Anne, Chang, Heejun, Watson, Eric, Bolte, John P. Year: 2016 Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure for the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA) over the next century will have significant impacts on the river basin water balance, notably on the amount of evapotranspiration (ET). Mechanisms of impact on ET will be both direct and indirect, but there is limited understanding of their absolute and relative magnitudes. Here, we developed a spatially explicit, daily time-step, modeling infrastructure to simulate the basin-wide water balance that accounts for meteorological influences, as well as effects mediated by changing vegetation cover type, leaf area, and ecophysiology. Three CMIP5 climate scenarios (Lowclim, Reference, and HighClim) were run for the 2010–2100 period. Besides warmer temperatures, the climate scenarios were characterized by wetter winters and increasing vapor pressure deficits. In the mid-range Reference scenario, our landscape simulation model (Envision) projected a continuation of forest cover on the uplands but a threefold increase in area burned per year. A decline (12–30%) in basin-wide mean leaf area index (LAI) in forests was projected in all scenarios. The lower LAIs drove a corresponding decline in ET. In a sensitivity test, the effect of increasing CO2 on stomatal conductance induced a further substantial decrease (11–18%) in basin-wide mean ET. The net effect of decreases in ET and increases in winter precipitation was an increase in annual streamflow. These results support the inclusion of changes in land cover, land use, LAI, and ecophysiology in efforts to anticipate impacts of climate change on basin-scale water balances. Close