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• 1. [Article] Toward More Robust Extreme Flood Prediction by Bayesian Hierarchical and Multimodeling

  Flood information, especially extreme flood, is necessary for any large hydraulic structure design and flood risk management. Flood mitigation also requires a comprehensive assessment of flood risk and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Toward More Robust Extreme Flood Prediction by Bayesian Hierarchical and Multimodeling Author: Yan, Hongxiang, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2016 Flood information, especially extreme flood, is necessary for any large hydraulic structure design and flood risk management. Flood mitigation also requires a comprehensive assessment of flood risk and an explicit quantification of the flood uncertainty. In the present study, we use a multimodel ensemble approach based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method to account for model structure and distribution uncertainties. The usefulness of this approach is assessed by a case study over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in Pacific Northwest, USA. Besides the standard log-Pearson Type III distribution, we also identified that the generalized extreme value and three-parameter lognormal distributions were both potential distributions in WRB. Three different statistical models, including the Bulletin-17B quantile model, index-flood model, and spatial Bayesian hierarchical model, were considered in the study. The BMA method is then used to assign weights to different models, where better performing model receives higher weights. It was found that the major uncertainty in extreme flood prediction is contributed by model structure, while the choice of distribution plays a lesser important role in quantification of flood uncertainty. The BMA approach provides a more robust extreme flood prediction than any single model. Title: Toward More Robust Extreme Flood Prediction by Bayesian Hierarchical and Multimodeling Author: Yan, Hongxiang, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2016 Flood information, especially extreme flood, is necessary for any large hydraulic structure design and flood risk management. Flood mitigation also requires a comprehensive assessment of flood risk and an explicit quantification of the flood uncertainty. In the present study, we use a multimodel ensemble approach based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method to account for model structure and distribution uncertainties. The usefulness of this approach is assessed by a case study over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in Pacific Northwest, USA. Besides the standard log-Pearson Type III distribution, we also identified that the generalized extreme value and three-parameter lognormal distributions were both potential distributions in WRB. Three different statistical models, including the Bulletin-17B quantile model, index-flood model, and spatial Bayesian hierarchical model, were considered in the study. The BMA method is then used to assign weights to different models, where better performing model receives higher weights. It was found that the major uncertainty in extreme flood prediction is contributed by model structure, while the choice of distribution plays a lesser important role in quantification of flood uncertainty. The BMA approach provides a more robust extreme flood prediction than any single model. Close

• 2. [Article] Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA

  This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-won, Figliozzi, Miguel, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2010 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, a stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the historical period of 1988 and 2006 and simulated for determining the probability of floods for 2020 through 2049. We surveyed stream cross-sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined flood water surface elevations using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year flood water surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. Whereas vehicle miles traveled was not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-won, Figliozzi, Miguel, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2010 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, a stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the historical period of 1988 and 2006 and simulated for determining the probability of floods for 2020 through 2049. We surveyed stream cross-sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined flood water surface elevations using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year flood water surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. Whereas vehicle miles traveled was not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Close

• 3. [Article] Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Modeling of the Chehalis River Using CE-QUAL-W2

  The Chehalis River Basin is located in the southwest region of Washington State, originating in the Olympic Mountains and flowing to Grays Harbor and the Pacific Ocean. The Chehalis River is over 125 miles, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Modeling of the Chehalis River Using CE-QUAL-W2 Author: Van Glubt, Sarah Year: 2017 The Chehalis River Basin is located in the southwest region of Washington State, originating in the Olympic Mountains and flowing to Grays Harbor and the Pacific Ocean. The Chehalis River is over 125 miles, exists within five counties, and flows through agricultural, residential, industrial, and forest land areas. Four major rivers discharge to the Chehalis River, as well as many smaller creeks, five wastewater treatment plants, and groundwater flows. Flooding is a major problem in the relatively flat areas surrounding the cities of Chehalis and Centralia, with severe consequences for property, safety and transportation. As a result, construction of a flood-control dam in the upper basin has been proposed. One major concern of constructing a dam is the potentially severe impacts to fish health and habitat. The Chehalis River has routinely violated water quality standards for primarily temperature and dissolved oxygen, and has had multiple water quality and Total Maximum Daily Load studies beginning in 1990. CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal and vertical) hydrodynamic and water quality model, was used to simulate the Chehalis River, including free flowing river stretches and stratified (in summer) lake-like stretches. The goals of this research were to assess the flood retention structure's impacts to water quality, as well as river responses to potential climate change scenarios. In order to use the model to achieve these goals, calibration to field data for flow, temperature, and water quality constituents was performed. This involved developing meteorological data, riparian shading data, and flow, temperature, water quality records for all tributaries during the calibration period of January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014. System cross-sectional geometry data were also required for the model grid. Because of the short travel time in the river, the model was sensitive to boundary condition data, wind speed, bathymetry, nutrient kinetics, and algae, epiphyton, and zooplankton kinetics. Future conditions showed predictions of warmer water temperatures and slight changes to water quality conditions on the river. As fish in the area prefer cooler water temperatures, this could pose a threat to fish health and habitat. Flood retention structures also showed impacts to river temperature and water quality. Structures with the purpose of flood retention only (only operating during times of flooding) gave model predictions for daily maximum temperature higher than structures that employed flood retention and flow augmentation (operating during all times of the year). This suggested the management of flow passage or retention by the dam is important for water quality on the river. As this research continues improvements will be made, particularly to temperature and water quality constituents. Additional data for the system would be beneficial to this process. Model predictions of temperature were sensitive to meteorological data, including cloud cover, which were largely estimated based on solar radiation. Additional meteorological data throughout the basin would be useful to temperature results. Temperature results were also sensitive to the model bathymetry, and additional investigations into segments widths and water depths may improve temperature predictions. Water quality constituent data were largely lacking for the system. Many estimation techniques and approximations were used for input water quality constituents for the model upstream boundary and tributaries when little or no data were available, introducing uncertainty to the model. It was not possible to calibrate pH to field data because alkalinity data were essentially unavailable. However, other constituents had good agreement between model predictions and field data, including dissolved oxygen, nitrates, total phosphorus, and total suspended solids. Title: Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Modeling of the Chehalis River Using CE-QUAL-W2 Author: Van Glubt, Sarah Year: 2017 The Chehalis River Basin is located in the southwest region of Washington State, originating in the Olympic Mountains and flowing to Grays Harbor and the Pacific Ocean. The Chehalis River is over 125 miles, exists within five counties, and flows through agricultural, residential, industrial, and forest land areas. Four major rivers discharge to the Chehalis River, as well as many smaller creeks, five wastewater treatment plants, and groundwater flows. Flooding is a major problem in the relatively flat areas surrounding the cities of Chehalis and Centralia, with severe consequences for property, safety and transportation. As a result, construction of a flood-control dam in the upper basin has been proposed. One major concern of constructing a dam is the potentially severe impacts to fish health and habitat. The Chehalis River has routinely violated water quality standards for primarily temperature and dissolved oxygen, and has had multiple water quality and Total Maximum Daily Load studies beginning in 1990. CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal and vertical) hydrodynamic and water quality model, was used to simulate the Chehalis River, including free flowing river stretches and stratified (in summer) lake-like stretches. The goals of this research were to assess the flood retention structure's impacts to water quality, as well as river responses to potential climate change scenarios. In order to use the model to achieve these goals, calibration to field data for flow, temperature, and water quality constituents was performed. This involved developing meteorological data, riparian shading data, and flow, temperature, water quality records for all tributaries during the calibration period of January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014. System cross-sectional geometry data were also required for the model grid. Because of the short travel time in the river, the model was sensitive to boundary condition data, wind speed, bathymetry, nutrient kinetics, and algae, epiphyton, and zooplankton kinetics. Future conditions showed predictions of warmer water temperatures and slight changes to water quality conditions on the river. As fish in the area prefer cooler water temperatures, this could pose a threat to fish health and habitat. Flood retention structures also showed impacts to river temperature and water quality. Structures with the purpose of flood retention only (only operating during times of flooding) gave model predictions for daily maximum temperature higher than structures that employed flood retention and flow augmentation (operating during all times of the year). This suggested the management of flow passage or retention by the dam is important for water quality on the river. As this research continues improvements will be made, particularly to temperature and water quality constituents. Additional data for the system would be beneficial to this process. Model predictions of temperature were sensitive to meteorological data, including cloud cover, which were largely estimated based on solar radiation. Additional meteorological data throughout the basin would be useful to temperature results. Temperature results were also sensitive to the model bathymetry, and additional investigations into segments widths and water depths may improve temperature predictions. Water quality constituent data were largely lacking for the system. Many estimation techniques and approximations were used for input water quality constituents for the model upstream boundary and tributaries when little or no data were available, introducing uncertainty to the model. It was not possible to calibrate pH to field data because alkalinity data were essentially unavailable. However, other constituents had good agreement between model predictions and field data, including dissolved oxygen, nitrates, total phosphorus, and total suspended solids. Close

• 4. [Article] Tidal Asymmetry in an Estuarine Pycnocline 2. Transport

  Flood currents in shallow estuaries are driven by an along-channel barotropic and baroclinic pressure gradient that increases monotonically toward the bottom, while friction retards near-bottom currents. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tidal Asymmetry in an Estuarine Pycnocline 2. Transport Author: Jay, David A., Cudaback, Cynthia N. Year: 2001 Flood currents in shallow estuaries are driven by an along-channel barotropic and baroclinic pressure gradient that increases monotonically toward the bottom, while friction retards near-bottom currents. Therefore, in many estuaries there is a middepth maximum in flood currents. We explore this phenomenon using a simple three-layer model in which each layer has vertically uniform currents and constant density. In this model the middle layer is of intermediate density and grows by shear-induced entrainment from the other two layers. This very simple model produces a middepth maximum in flood currents and simulates observed currents in the Columbia River entrance channel within about 10%. There is good qualitative agreement between model salinity transport and observed transport. The model pycnocline rises and falls tidally, in phase with the observed pycnocline, although pycnocline depth and thickness are better simulated using results from a two-layer model Title: Tidal Asymmetry in an Estuarine Pycnocline 2. Transport Author: Jay, David A., Cudaback, Cynthia N. Year: 2001 Flood currents in shallow estuaries are driven by an along-channel barotropic and baroclinic pressure gradient that increases monotonically toward the bottom, while friction retards near-bottom currents. Therefore, in many estuaries there is a middepth maximum in flood currents. We explore this phenomenon using a simple three-layer model in which each layer has vertically uniform currents and constant density. In this model the middle layer is of intermediate density and grows by shear-induced entrainment from the other two layers. This very simple model produces a middepth maximum in flood currents and simulates observed currents in the Columbia River entrance channel within about 10%. There is good qualitative agreement between model salinity transport and observed transport. The model pycnocline rises and falls tidally, in phase with the observed pycnocline, although pycnocline depth and thickness are better simulated using results from a two-layer model Close

• 5. [Article] Residual Circulation in Shallow Estuaries 1. Highly Stratified, Narrow Estuaries

  Long-wave theory and simple turbulence closures have been used to show that three distinct types of circulation (highly stratified, weakly stratified, and partially mixed) arise in narrow, shallow estuaries ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Residual Circulation in Shallow Estuaries 1. Highly Stratified, Narrow Estuaries Author: Jay, David A., Smith, J. Dungan Year: 1990 Long-wave theory and simple turbulence closures have been used to show that three distinct types of circulation (highly stratified, weakly stratified, and partially mixed) arise in narrow, shallow estuaries from the finite amplitude of the tide and the interaction of stratification with vertical mixing. Each type has a different dominant process causing the vertical exchange of salt and fresh water on the flood, and each gives rise to a characteristic residual circulation. The tidal circulation in highly stratified shallow estuaries, described herein, is the result of a finite amplitude internal motion driven by the barotropic tide; shear instabilities at the interface are the major vertical exchange mechanism. The residual circulation is caused primarily by ebb-flood asymmetry in interface position and thickness. A model based on our theoretical analysis shows that the interface thickness on flood is much less than the depth of flow up to a critical tidal amplitude at which the two-layer flow is destroyed, and correctly predicts the tidal amplitude of the neap-spring transition in the Columbia River Estuary. Tidal frequency internal wave motion is not found in weakly stratified and partially mixed estuaries. Because of the reduced tidal shear, shear instabilities are weak or absent, and the residual circulation assumes a very different character, as described in part 2. Title: Residual Circulation in Shallow Estuaries 1. Highly Stratified, Narrow Estuaries Author: Jay, David A., Smith, J. Dungan Year: 1990 Long-wave theory and simple turbulence closures have been used to show that three distinct types of circulation (highly stratified, weakly stratified, and partially mixed) arise in narrow, shallow estuaries from the finite amplitude of the tide and the interaction of stratification with vertical mixing. Each type has a different dominant process causing the vertical exchange of salt and fresh water on the flood, and each gives rise to a characteristic residual circulation. The tidal circulation in highly stratified shallow estuaries, described herein, is the result of a finite amplitude internal motion driven by the barotropic tide; shear instabilities at the interface are the major vertical exchange mechanism. The residual circulation is caused primarily by ebb-flood asymmetry in interface position and thickness. A model based on our theoretical analysis shows that the interface thickness on flood is much less than the depth of flow up to a critical tidal amplitude at which the two-layer flow is destroyed, and correctly predicts the tidal amplitude of the neap-spring transition in the Columbia River Estuary. Tidal frequency internal wave motion is not found in weakly stratified and partially mixed estuaries. Because of the reduced tidal shear, shear instabilities are weak or absent, and the residual circulation assumes a very different character, as described in part 2. Close

• 6. [Article] Application of Numerical Modeling to Study River Dynamics: Hydro-Geomorphological Evolution Due to Extreme Events in the Sandy River, Oregon

  The Sandy River (OR) is a costal tributary of the Columbia River and has a steep hydroshed 1316 square kilometers which is located on the western side of Mount Hood (elevation range 3 m to 1800 m). The ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Application of Numerical Modeling to Study River Dynamics: Hydro-Geomorphological Evolution Due to Extreme Events in the Sandy River, Oregon Author: Muhammad, Sarkawt Hamarahim Year: 2017 The Sandy River (OR) is a costal tributary of the Columbia River and has a steep hydroshed 1316 square kilometers which is located on the western side of Mount Hood (elevation range 3 m to 1800 m). The system exhibits highly variable flow: Its average discharge is ~40 m3/s, and the highest recorded discharge was 1739 m3/s in 1964. In this study I model the geomorphic sensitivity of an 1800m reach located the downstream of the former Marmot Dam, which was removed in 2007. The hydro-geomorphic response to major flood has implications for system management and aquatic life. Studying hydro-geomorphic change requires a systematic approach. Here, I define flows and flood hydrographs for specified return interval based on the observed hydrologic record, and then examine potential hydro-geomorphic changes using a numerical model. A Pearson Type III distribution is used to calculate 100, 75, 50, 25, 10, and 2 year return periods. Extreme event hydrographs are derived by fitting derived and observed flood hydrographs to the gamma distribution curve. Sediment transport and geomorphology are then modeled numerically with Nays2DH, a solver that is part of iRIC software. Because the model is computationally intensive, I model the domain with five different spatial grid resolutions, to find proper grid resolution. The grid resolutions used are 1.5 m, 2 m, 3 m, 4 m, and 5 m. We choose 4 m as optimum grid resolution, based on the convergence of model results. The model is run for extreme event hydrographs with six above return periods. For result visualization and analysis, we focus on flow properties and bed elevation at peak flow and at the end of each event. For both times for each event, important flow and sediment transport parameters are visualized for the entire domain in plane form and eight cross-sections at 200 m intervals. Finally, we divide the geomorphic response into areas of erosion and deposition. Linear regression analyses of mean values of erosion and deposition at peak flow for all extreme events yield R2 of 0.981 for erosion and 0.986 for deposition. The mean erosion and deposition depth at the end of the events is modeled by nonlinear regression with correlation coefficient of 0.965 for erosion and 0.998 for deposition. The regression models provide direct understanding of impacts of different floods on the geomorphic response of the river domain. examination of the model as a whole suggest that the amount of erosion and deposition in the bed and banks is a function of channel geometry, bank and bed geology, riparian area condition and strongly depend on the amount of flow through the channel. Title: Application of Numerical Modeling to Study River Dynamics: Hydro-Geomorphological Evolution Due to Extreme Events in the Sandy River, Oregon Author: Muhammad, Sarkawt Hamarahim Year: 2017 The Sandy River (OR) is a costal tributary of the Columbia River and has a steep hydroshed 1316 square kilometers which is located on the western side of Mount Hood (elevation range 3 m to 1800 m). The system exhibits highly variable flow: Its average discharge is ~40 m3/s, and the highest recorded discharge was 1739 m3/s in 1964. In this study I model the geomorphic sensitivity of an 1800m reach located the downstream of the former Marmot Dam, which was removed in 2007. The hydro-geomorphic response to major flood has implications for system management and aquatic life. Studying hydro-geomorphic change requires a systematic approach. Here, I define flows and flood hydrographs for specified return interval based on the observed hydrologic record, and then examine potential hydro-geomorphic changes using a numerical model. A Pearson Type III distribution is used to calculate 100, 75, 50, 25, 10, and 2 year return periods. Extreme event hydrographs are derived by fitting derived and observed flood hydrographs to the gamma distribution curve. Sediment transport and geomorphology are then modeled numerically with Nays2DH, a solver that is part of iRIC software. Because the model is computationally intensive, I model the domain with five different spatial grid resolutions, to find proper grid resolution. The grid resolutions used are 1.5 m, 2 m, 3 m, 4 m, and 5 m. We choose 4 m as optimum grid resolution, based on the convergence of model results. The model is run for extreme event hydrographs with six above return periods. For result visualization and analysis, we focus on flow properties and bed elevation at peak flow and at the end of each event. For both times for each event, important flow and sediment transport parameters are visualized for the entire domain in plane form and eight cross-sections at 200 m intervals. Finally, we divide the geomorphic response into areas of erosion and deposition. Linear regression analyses of mean values of erosion and deposition at peak flow for all extreme events yield R2 of 0.981 for erosion and 0.986 for deposition. The mean erosion and deposition depth at the end of the events is modeled by nonlinear regression with correlation coefficient of 0.965 for erosion and 0.998 for deposition. The regression models provide direct understanding of impacts of different floods on the geomorphic response of the river domain. examination of the model as a whole suggest that the amount of erosion and deposition in the bed and banks is a function of channel geometry, bank and bed geology, riparian area condition and strongly depend on the amount of flow through the channel. Close

• 7. [Article] Predictive Time Series Analysis Linking Bengal Cholera with Terrestrial Water Storage Measured from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Sensors

  Outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, including cholera, are related to floods and droughts in regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate or insufficient. However, availability of data ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Predictive Time Series Analysis Linking Bengal Cholera with Terrestrial Water Storage Measured from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Sensors Author: Jutla, Antarpreet, Akanda, Ali, Unnikrishnan, Avinash, Huq, Anwar, Colwell, Rita Year: 2015 Outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, including cholera, are related to floods and droughts in regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate or insufficient. However, availability of data on water scarcity and abundance in transnational basins, are a prerequisite for developing cholera forecasting systems. With more than a decade of terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, conditions favorable for predicting cholera occurrence may now be determined. We explored lead–lag relationships between TWS in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin and endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Since bimodal seasonal peaks in cholera in Bangladesh occur during spring and autumn seasons, two separate logistical models between TWS and disease time series (2002–2010) were developed. TWS representing water availability showed an asymmetrical, strong association with cholera prevalence in the spring (τ = −0.53; P < 0.001) and autumn (τ = 0.45; P < 0.001) up to 6 months in advance. One unit (centimeter of water) decrease in water availability in the basin increased odds of above normal cholera by 24% (confidence interval [CI] = 20–31%; P < 0.05) in the spring, while an increase in regional water by 1 unit, through floods, increased odds of above average cholera in the autumn by 29% (CI = 22–33%; P < 0.05). Title: Predictive Time Series Analysis Linking Bengal Cholera with Terrestrial Water Storage Measured from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Sensors Author: Jutla, Antarpreet, Akanda, Ali, Unnikrishnan, Avinash, Huq, Anwar, Colwell, Rita Year: 2015 Outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, including cholera, are related to floods and droughts in regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate or insufficient. However, availability of data on water scarcity and abundance in transnational basins, are a prerequisite for developing cholera forecasting systems. With more than a decade of terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, conditions favorable for predicting cholera occurrence may now be determined. We explored lead–lag relationships between TWS in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin and endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Since bimodal seasonal peaks in cholera in Bangladesh occur during spring and autumn seasons, two separate logistical models between TWS and disease time series (2002–2010) were developed. TWS representing water availability showed an asymmetrical, strong association with cholera prevalence in the spring (τ = −0.53; P < 0.001) and autumn (τ = 0.45; P < 0.001) up to 6 months in advance. One unit (centimeter of water) decrease in water availability in the basin increased odds of above normal cholera by 24% (confidence interval [CI] = 20–31%; P < 0.05) in the spring, while an increase in regional water by 1 unit, through floods, increased odds of above average cholera in the autumn by 29% (CI = 22–33%; P < 0.05). Close

• 8. [Article] Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013

  Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013 Author: Talke, Stefan A., Orton, Philip M., Jay, David A. Year: 2014 Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20–25%. Title: Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013 Author: Talke, Stefan A., Orton, Philip M., Jay, David A. Year: 2014 Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20–25%. Close

• 9. [Article] Sustainable Drainage Systems: Helping People Live with Water

  Sustainable drainage systems or ‘Suds’ are increasingly accepted as an effective means of ‘making space for water’, adapting to possible climate change and helping communities become more flood and drought ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Sustainable Drainage Systems: Helping People Live with Water Author: Everett, Glyn, Lamond, Jessica, Morzillo, Anita T., Chan, Faith Ka Shun, Matsler, Annie Marissa Year: 2016 Sustainable drainage systems or ‘Suds’ are increasingly accepted as an effective means of ‘making space for water’, adapting to possible climate change and helping communities become more flood and drought resilient. This study explores potential shifts in perception and attitude through Suds installation, development and habituation. Attitudes and awareness in communities in the USA and UK, where Suds have been in place for some time, were compared and contrasted, examining any evolution of beliefs and practices and wider community resilience. The principal finding was that there existed a lack of understanding about the existence and function of Suds. The paper concludes that consultation regarding solutions during Suds planning and installation, and ongoing dialogue afterwards, could usefully be explored as a means to improve local awareness of and satisfaction with Suds and promote greater understanding of their function. This may in turn encourage behaviour change to improve longer-term functionality... Title: Sustainable Drainage Systems: Helping People Live with Water Author: Everett, Glyn, Lamond, Jessica, Morzillo, Anita T., Chan, Faith Ka Shun, Matsler, Annie Marissa Year: 2016 Sustainable drainage systems or ‘Suds’ are increasingly accepted as an effective means of ‘making space for water’, adapting to possible climate change and helping communities become more flood and drought resilient. This study explores potential shifts in perception and attitude through Suds installation, development and habituation. Attitudes and awareness in communities in the USA and UK, where Suds have been in place for some time, were compared and contrasted, examining any evolution of beliefs and practices and wider community resilience. The principal finding was that there existed a lack of understanding about the existence and function of Suds. The paper concludes that consultation regarding solutions during Suds planning and installation, and ongoing dialogue afterwards, could usefully be explored as a means to improve local awareness of and satisfaction with Suds and promote greater understanding of their function. This may in turn encourage behaviour change to improve longer-term functionality... Close

• 10. [Article] Mapping of Groundwater Potential Zones in the Musi Basin Using Remote Sensing Data and GIS

  The objective of this study is to explore the groundwater availability for agriculture in the Musi basin. Remote sensing data and geographic information system were used to locate potential zones for groundwater ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Mapping of Groundwater Potential Zones in the Musi Basin Using Remote Sensing Data and GIS Author: Ganapuram, Sreedhar, Kumar, G.T. Vijaya, Krishna, I.V. Murali, Kahya, Ercan, Demirel, Mehmet Year: 2009 The objective of this study is to explore the groundwater availability for agriculture in the Musi basin. Remote sensing data and geographic information system were used to locate potential zones for groundwater in the Musi basin. Various maps (i.e., base, hydrogeomorphological, geological, structural, drainage, slope, land use/land cover and groundwater prospect zones) were prepared using the remote sensing data along with the existing maps. The groundwater availability of the basin is qualitatively classified into different classes (i.e., very good, good, moderate, poor and nil) based on its hydrogeomorphological conditions. The land use/land cover map was prepared for the Kharif season using a digital classification technique with the limited ground truth for mapping irrigated areas in the Musi basin. The alluvial plain in filled valley, flood plain and deeply buried pediplain were successfully delineated and shown as the prospective zones of groundwater. Title: Mapping of Groundwater Potential Zones in the Musi Basin Using Remote Sensing Data and GIS Author: Ganapuram, Sreedhar, Kumar, G.T. Vijaya, Krishna, I.V. Murali, Kahya, Ercan, Demirel, Mehmet Year: 2009 The objective of this study is to explore the groundwater availability for agriculture in the Musi basin. Remote sensing data and geographic information system were used to locate potential zones for groundwater in the Musi basin. Various maps (i.e., base, hydrogeomorphological, geological, structural, drainage, slope, land use/land cover and groundwater prospect zones) were prepared using the remote sensing data along with the existing maps. The groundwater availability of the basin is qualitatively classified into different classes (i.e., very good, good, moderate, poor and nil) based on its hydrogeomorphological conditions. The land use/land cover map was prepared for the Kharif season using a digital classification technique with the limited ground truth for mapping irrigated areas in the Musi basin. The alluvial plain in filled valley, flood plain and deeply buried pediplain were successfully delineated and shown as the prospective zones of groundwater. Close