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• 1. [Article] Green River CE-QUAL-W2 Project: A Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Study of the Green River King County, Washington

  This report describes the data processing and model calibration performed for a hydrodynamic and water quality model of the Green River, located in King County, Washington. Figure 1 shows the location ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Green River CE-QUAL-W2 Project: A Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Study of the Green River King County, Washington Author: Kraft, Tim, Annear, Robert Leslie, Berger, Chris, Wells, Scott A. Year: 2004 This report describes the data processing and model calibration performed for a hydrodynamic and water quality model of the Green River, located in King County, Washington. Figure 1 shows the location of the river, and the limits of the section of river that was modeled. The Green River flows from its headwaters in the Cascade Mountain foothills through the King County, Washington communities of Auburn, Kent, and Tukwila before discharging into the Duwamish River. Two sections of the river were modeled in this project. The Middle Green River begins in the Cascade Mountain foothills east of Tacoma, and continues downstream to the city of Auburn, WA. The Lower Green River continues from Auburn to the confluence with the Duwamish River, in the town of Tukwila. The Green/Duwamish River system is unique in that it flows through a heavily urbanized and industrialized environment yet supports a large salmon population (Green/Duwamish Ecosystem Restoration Study, 2003). To protect the river and its prime salmon habitat, King County and the US Army Corps of Engineers have joined together on a study to identify and implement strategies for restoring and protecting the Green/Duwamish River System and its tributaries (Green/Duwamish Ecosystem Restoration Study, 2003). As part of the Green-Duwamish Watershed Water Quality Assessment Program, King County contracted with Portland State University to develop a hydrodynamic and water quality model for the Lower and Middle Green River. This model will be used in Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) development, in assessing current water quality conditions in the river, and as a planning tool for evaluating the impacts of future development in the basin. Title: Green River CE-QUAL-W2 Project: A Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Study of the Green River King County, Washington Author: Kraft, Tim, Annear, Robert Leslie, Berger, Chris, Wells, Scott A. Year: 2004 This report describes the data processing and model calibration performed for a hydrodynamic and water quality model of the Green River, located in King County, Washington. Figure 1 shows the location of the river, and the limits of the section of river that was modeled. The Green River flows from its headwaters in the Cascade Mountain foothills through the King County, Washington communities of Auburn, Kent, and Tukwila before discharging into the Duwamish River. Two sections of the river were modeled in this project. The Middle Green River begins in the Cascade Mountain foothills east of Tacoma, and continues downstream to the city of Auburn, WA. The Lower Green River continues from Auburn to the confluence with the Duwamish River, in the town of Tukwila. The Green/Duwamish River system is unique in that it flows through a heavily urbanized and industrialized environment yet supports a large salmon population (Green/Duwamish Ecosystem Restoration Study, 2003). To protect the river and its prime salmon habitat, King County and the US Army Corps of Engineers have joined together on a study to identify and implement strategies for restoring and protecting the Green/Duwamish River System and its tributaries (Green/Duwamish Ecosystem Restoration Study, 2003). As part of the Green-Duwamish Watershed Water Quality Assessment Program, King County contracted with Portland State University to develop a hydrodynamic and water quality model for the Lower and Middle Green River. This model will be used in Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) development, in assessing current water quality conditions in the river, and as a planning tool for evaluating the impacts of future development in the basin. Close

• 2. [Article] Daily Discharge Forecasting Using Least Square Support Vector Regression and Regression Tree

  Prediction of river flow is one of the main issues in the field of water resources management. Because of the complexity of the rainfall-runoff process, data-driven methods have gained increased importance. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Daily Discharge Forecasting Using Least Square Support Vector Regression and Regression Tree Author: Sahraei, Shahram, Andalani, Saeed Zare, Zakermoshfegh, Mohammad, Sisakht, Babak Nikeghbal, Talebbeydokhti, Nasser, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2015 Prediction of river flow is one of the main issues in the field of water resources management. Because of the complexity of the rainfall-runoff process, data-driven methods have gained increased importance. In the current study, two newly developed models called Least Square Support Vector Regression (LSSVR) and Regression Tree (RT) are used. The LSSVR model is based on the constrained optimization method and applies structural risk minimization in order to yield a general optimized result. Also in the RT, data movement is based on laws discovered in the tree. Both models have been applied to the data in the Kashkan watershed. Variables include (a) recorded precipitation values in the Kashkan watershed stations, and (b) outlet discharge values of one and two previous days. Present discharge is considered as output of the two models. Following that, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out on the input features and less important features has been diminished so that both models have provided better prediction on the data. The final results of both models have been compared. It was found that the LSSVR model has better performance. Finally, the results present these models as a suitable models in river flow forecasting. Title: Daily Discharge Forecasting Using Least Square Support Vector Regression and Regression Tree Author: Sahraei, Shahram, Andalani, Saeed Zare, Zakermoshfegh, Mohammad, Sisakht, Babak Nikeghbal, Talebbeydokhti, Nasser, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2015 Prediction of river flow is one of the main issues in the field of water resources management. Because of the complexity of the rainfall-runoff process, data-driven methods have gained increased importance. In the current study, two newly developed models called Least Square Support Vector Regression (LSSVR) and Regression Tree (RT) are used. The LSSVR model is based on the constrained optimization method and applies structural risk minimization in order to yield a general optimized result. Also in the RT, data movement is based on laws discovered in the tree. Both models have been applied to the data in the Kashkan watershed. Variables include (a) recorded precipitation values in the Kashkan watershed stations, and (b) outlet discharge values of one and two previous days. Present discharge is considered as output of the two models. Following that, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out on the input features and less important features has been diminished so that both models have provided better prediction on the data. The final results of both models have been compared. It was found that the LSSVR model has better performance. Finally, the results present these models as a suitable models in river flow forecasting. Close

• 3. [Article] A sequential Bayesian approach for hydrologic model selection and prediction

  When a single model is used for hydrologic prediction, it must be capable of estimating system behavior accurately at all times. Multiple-model approaches integrate several model behaviors and, when effective, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A sequential Bayesian approach for hydrologic model selection and prediction Author: Hsu, Kuo-Lin, Moradkhani, Hamid, Sorooshian, Soroosh Year: 2009 When a single model is used for hydrologic prediction, it must be capable of estimating system behavior accurately at all times. Multiple-model approaches integrate several model behaviors and, when effective, they can provide better estimates than that of any single model alone. This paper discusses a sequential model fusion strategy that uses the Bayes rule. This approach calculates each model's transient posterior distribution at each time when a new observation is available and merges all model estimates on the basis of each model's posterior probability. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of this approach through case studies that fuse three hydrologic models, auto regressive with exogenous inputs, Sacramento soil moisture accounting, and artificial neural network models, to predict daily watershed streamflow. Title: A sequential Bayesian approach for hydrologic model selection and prediction Author: Hsu, Kuo-Lin, Moradkhani, Hamid, Sorooshian, Soroosh Year: 2009 When a single model is used for hydrologic prediction, it must be capable of estimating system behavior accurately at all times. Multiple-model approaches integrate several model behaviors and, when effective, they can provide better estimates than that of any single model alone. This paper discusses a sequential model fusion strategy that uses the Bayes rule. This approach calculates each model's transient posterior distribution at each time when a new observation is available and merges all model estimates on the basis of each model's posterior probability. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of this approach through case studies that fuse three hydrologic models, auto regressive with exogenous inputs, Sacramento soil moisture accounting, and artificial neural network models, to predict daily watershed streamflow. Close

• 4. [Article] Hydrologic Modeling in Dynamic Catchments: A Data Assimilation Approach

  The transferability of conceptual hydrologic models in time is often limited by both their structural deficiencies and adopted parameterizations. Adopting a stationary set of model parameters ignores biases ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrologic Modeling in Dynamic Catchments: A Data Assimilation Approach Author: Pathiraja, Sahani Darshika, Sharma, Ashish, Marshall, Lucy, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2016 The transferability of conceptual hydrologic models in time is often limited by both their structural deficiencies and adopted parameterizations. Adopting a stationary set of model parameters ignores biases introduced by the data used to derive them, as well as any future changes to catchment conditions. Although time invariance of model parameters is one of the hallmarks of a high quality hydrologic model, very few (if any) models can achieve this due to their inherent limitations. It is therefore proposed to consider parameters as potentially time varying quantities, which can evolve according to signals in hydrologic observations. In this paper, we investigate the potential for Data Assimilation (DA) to detect known temporal patterns in model parameters from streamflow observations. It is shown that the success of the DA algorithm is strongly dependent on the method used to generate background (or prior) parameter ensembles (also referred to as the parameter evolution model). A range of traditional parameter evolution techniques are considered and found to be problematic when multiple parameters with complex time variations are estimated simultaneously. Two alternative methods are proposed, the first is a Multilayer approach that uses the EnKF to estimate hyperparameters of the temporal structure, based on apriori knowledge of the form of nonstationarity. The second is a Locally Linear approach that uses local linear estimation and requires no assumptions of the form of parameter nonstationarity. Both are shown to provide superior results in a range of synthetic case studies, when compared to traditional parameter evolution techniques. Title: Hydrologic Modeling in Dynamic Catchments: A Data Assimilation Approach Author: Pathiraja, Sahani Darshika, Sharma, Ashish, Marshall, Lucy, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2016 The transferability of conceptual hydrologic models in time is often limited by both their structural deficiencies and adopted parameterizations. Adopting a stationary set of model parameters ignores biases introduced by the data used to derive them, as well as any future changes to catchment conditions. Although time invariance of model parameters is one of the hallmarks of a high quality hydrologic model, very few (if any) models can achieve this due to their inherent limitations. It is therefore proposed to consider parameters as potentially time varying quantities, which can evolve according to signals in hydrologic observations. In this paper, we investigate the potential for Data Assimilation (DA) to detect known temporal patterns in model parameters from streamflow observations. It is shown that the success of the DA algorithm is strongly dependent on the method used to generate background (or prior) parameter ensembles (also referred to as the parameter evolution model). A range of traditional parameter evolution techniques are considered and found to be problematic when multiple parameters with complex time variations are estimated simultaneously. Two alternative methods are proposed, the first is a Multilayer approach that uses the EnKF to estimate hyperparameters of the temporal structure, based on apriori knowledge of the form of nonstationarity. The second is a Locally Linear approach that uses local linear estimation and requires no assumptions of the form of parameter nonstationarity. Both are shown to provide superior results in a range of synthetic case studies, when compared to traditional parameter evolution techniques. Close

• 5. [Article] Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Model Calibration

  The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Model Calibration Author: Berger, Chris, McKillip, Michael Lee, Annear, Robert Leslie, Khan, Sher Jamal, Wells, Scott A. Year: 2004 The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all major tributaries (except the Tualatin River where a TMDL process was already concluded). A large section of the Columbia River was also modeled to provide adequate boundary representation of tidal flows in the lower Willamette River. The Willamette River below the Oregon City Falls in the Portland metropolitan area has a typical diurnal tidal range of 1 m. The development of a dynamic model of temperature and hydrodynamics of the entire river basin incorporating shading were primary requirements of this modeling study. The model would be used by DEQ to set temperature limits on point source dischargers and to evaluate the impact of management strategies on river temperatures to improve fish habitat. Some of these strategies included modifications of the dam at the Willamette River Falls south of Portland and channel reconfigurations. The river basin model was originally divided into several reaches. Individual models were developed for each reach. The models were set-up for each section of the Willamette basin as described in Annear et al. (2004a), the models were calibrated to field data and management strategies were evaluated as described in Annear et al (2004b). This report outlines the model calibration of each of these model sections or elements for both the calibration time periods. The calibration period for each model section differs due to the availability of boundary condition data. The model management simulation scenarios (Annear et al, 2004b) also required boundary condition data that extended past the calibration periods. Title: Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Model Calibration Author: Berger, Chris, McKillip, Michael Lee, Annear, Robert Leslie, Khan, Sher Jamal, Wells, Scott A. Year: 2004 The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all major tributaries (except the Tualatin River where a TMDL process was already concluded). A large section of the Columbia River was also modeled to provide adequate boundary representation of tidal flows in the lower Willamette River. The Willamette River below the Oregon City Falls in the Portland metropolitan area has a typical diurnal tidal range of 1 m. The development of a dynamic model of temperature and hydrodynamics of the entire river basin incorporating shading were primary requirements of this modeling study. The model would be used by DEQ to set temperature limits on point source dischargers and to evaluate the impact of management strategies on river temperatures to improve fish habitat. Some of these strategies included modifications of the dam at the Willamette River Falls south of Portland and channel reconfigurations. The river basin model was originally divided into several reaches. Individual models were developed for each reach. The models were set-up for each section of the Willamette basin as described in Annear et al. (2004a), the models were calibrated to field data and management strategies were evaluated as described in Annear et al (2004b). This report outlines the model calibration of each of these model sections or elements for both the calibration time periods. The calibration period for each model section differs due to the availability of boundary condition data. The model management simulation scenarios (Annear et al, 2004b) also required boundary condition data that extended past the calibration periods. Close

• 6. [Article] Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Model Scenarios

  The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Model Scenarios Author: Annear, Robert Leslie, McKillip, Michael Lee, Khan, Sher Jamal, Berger, Chris, Wells, Scott A. Year: 2004 The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all major tributaries (except the Tualatin River where a TMDL process was already concluded). A large section of the Columbia River was also modeled to provide adequate boundary representation of tidal flows in the lower Willamette River. The Willamette River below the Oregon City Falls in the Portland metropolitan area has a typical diurnal tidal range of 1 m. The development of a dynamic model of temperature and hydrodynamics of the entire river basin incorporating shading were primary requirements of this modeling study. The model would be used by DEQ to set temperature limits on point source dischargers and to evaluate the impact of management strategies on river temperatures to improve fish habitat. Some of these strategies included modifications of the dam at the Willamette River Falls south of Portland and channel reconfigurations. Once the models were set-up for each section of the Willamette basin, the model was calibrated to field data and management strategies were evaluated. These are the subjects of two other reports: Annear et al. (2004) and Berger et al. (2004). This report outlines the results of implementing model scenarios for each of the model sections or elements for specific time periods. The model scenario simulation periods used to investigate management scenarios required boundary condition data that extended past the model calibration periods. The model simulation period for year 2001 was from June 1 to October 31 and for year 2002 from April 1 to October 31. Title: Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Model Scenarios Author: Annear, Robert Leslie, McKillip, Michael Lee, Khan, Sher Jamal, Berger, Chris, Wells, Scott A. Year: 2004 The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all major tributaries (except the Tualatin River where a TMDL process was already concluded). A large section of the Columbia River was also modeled to provide adequate boundary representation of tidal flows in the lower Willamette River. The Willamette River below the Oregon City Falls in the Portland metropolitan area has a typical diurnal tidal range of 1 m. The development of a dynamic model of temperature and hydrodynamics of the entire river basin incorporating shading were primary requirements of this modeling study. The model would be used by DEQ to set temperature limits on point source dischargers and to evaluate the impact of management strategies on river temperatures to improve fish habitat. Some of these strategies included modifications of the dam at the Willamette River Falls south of Portland and channel reconfigurations. Once the models were set-up for each section of the Willamette basin, the model was calibrated to field data and management strategies were evaluated. These are the subjects of two other reports: Annear et al. (2004) and Berger et al. (2004). This report outlines the results of implementing model scenarios for each of the model sections or elements for specific time periods. The model scenario simulation periods used to investigate management scenarios required boundary condition data that extended past the model calibration periods. The model simulation period for year 2001 was from June 1 to October 31 and for year 2002 from April 1 to October 31. Close

• 7. [Article] Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Boundary Conditions and Model Setup

  The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Boundary Conditions and Model Setup Author: Annear, Robert Leslie, McKillip, Michael Lee, Khan, Sher Jamal, Berger, Chris, Wells, Scott A. Year: 2004 The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all major tributaries (except the Tualatin River where a TMDL process was already concluded). A large section of the Columbia River was also modeled to provide adequate boundary representation of tidal flows in the lower Willamette River. The Willamette River below the Oregon City Falls in the Portland metropolitan area has a typical diurnal tidal range of 1 m. The development of a dynamic model of temperature and hydrodynamics of the entire river basin incorporating shading were primary requirements of this modeling study. The model would be used by DEQ to set temperature limits on point source dischargers and to evaluate the impact of management strategies on river temperatures to improve fish habitat. Some of these strategies included modifications of the dam at the Willamette River Falls south of Portland and channel reconfigurations. Once the models were set-up for each section of the Willamette basin, the model was calibrated to field data and management strategies were evaluated. These are the subjects of two other reports: Annear et al. (2004b) and Berger et al. (2004). This report outlines the model development of each of these model sections or elements for both the calibration time periods and the management scenario time periods. The calibration period for each model section differs due to the availability of boundary condition data. The model simulation periods used to investigate management scenarios (Annear et al, 2004b) also required boundary condition data that extended past the calibration periods. Title: Willamette River Basin Temperature TMDL Model: Boundary Conditions and Model Setup Author: Annear, Robert Leslie, McKillip, Michael Lee, Khan, Sher Jamal, Berger, Chris, Wells, Scott A. Year: 2004 The State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is developing a TMDL for temperature in the Willamette River basin shown in Figure 1. The study area included the Willamette River and all major tributaries (except the Tualatin River where a TMDL process was already concluded). A large section of the Columbia River was also modeled to provide adequate boundary representation of tidal flows in the lower Willamette River. The Willamette River below the Oregon City Falls in the Portland metropolitan area has a typical diurnal tidal range of 1 m. The development of a dynamic model of temperature and hydrodynamics of the entire river basin incorporating shading were primary requirements of this modeling study. The model would be used by DEQ to set temperature limits on point source dischargers and to evaluate the impact of management strategies on river temperatures to improve fish habitat. Some of these strategies included modifications of the dam at the Willamette River Falls south of Portland and channel reconfigurations. Once the models were set-up for each section of the Willamette basin, the model was calibrated to field data and management strategies were evaluated. These are the subjects of two other reports: Annear et al. (2004b) and Berger et al. (2004). This report outlines the model development of each of these model sections or elements for both the calibration time periods and the management scenario time periods. The calibration period for each model section differs due to the availability of boundary condition data. The model simulation periods used to investigate management scenarios (Annear et al, 2004b) also required boundary condition data that extended past the calibration periods. Close

• 8. [Article] Lake Whatcom Water Quality Model

  A water quality model of Lake Whatcom, Washington was developed as part of a Total Maximum Daily Load Study for the Washington Department of Ecology. Lake Whatcom is a large natural lake which is listed ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Lake Whatcom Water Quality Model Author: Berger, Chris Year: 2005 A water quality model of Lake Whatcom, Washington was developed as part of a Total Maximum Daily Load Study for the Washington Department of Ecology. Lake Whatcom is a large natural lake which is listed on the 1998 Washington State 303(d) list of waterbodies which do not meet the criterion for dissolved oxygen. Located next to the city of Bellingham, it is approximately 10 miles long and has a surface area of approximately 5000 acres and a maximum depth of over 100 meters. Eutrophication processes in the lake have been accelerated in recent years perhaps by the availability of nutrients from tributary discharges to the basin. Many of these tributaries have accelerated their nutrient loading to the system as a result of development in the watershed. The lake is being modeled using the Corps of Engineer’s model CE-QUAL-W2, which is a two-dimensional, hydrodynamic and water quality model. The project is managed by the Washington Department of Ecology which plans to make recommendations for reduction and allocation of pollutant loads. The objectives of this study were then to develop a hydrodynamic and water quality model of Lake Whatcom, calibrate the model to field data collected from February 2002 through December 2003, and use the model to evaluate strategies for water quality improvement. Title: Lake Whatcom Water Quality Model Author: Berger, Chris Year: 2005 A water quality model of Lake Whatcom, Washington was developed as part of a Total Maximum Daily Load Study for the Washington Department of Ecology. Lake Whatcom is a large natural lake which is listed on the 1998 Washington State 303(d) list of waterbodies which do not meet the criterion for dissolved oxygen. Located next to the city of Bellingham, it is approximately 10 miles long and has a surface area of approximately 5000 acres and a maximum depth of over 100 meters. Eutrophication processes in the lake have been accelerated in recent years perhaps by the availability of nutrients from tributary discharges to the basin. Many of these tributaries have accelerated their nutrient loading to the system as a result of development in the watershed. The lake is being modeled using the Corps of Engineer’s model CE-QUAL-W2, which is a two-dimensional, hydrodynamic and water quality model. The project is managed by the Washington Department of Ecology which plans to make recommendations for reduction and allocation of pollutant loads. The objectives of this study were then to develop a hydrodynamic and water quality model of Lake Whatcom, calibrate the model to field data collected from February 2002 through December 2003, and use the model to evaluate strategies for water quality improvement. Close