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• 1. [Article] A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor

  Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor Author: Orton, Philip M., Hall, T. M., Talke, Stefan A., Blumberg, Alan F., Georgas, Nickitas, Vinogradov, S. Year: 2016 Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment is based on simulations of historical storms with many random tide scenarios. Synthetic TC landfall rates and the final TC and ETC flood exceedance curves are all shown to be consistent with curves computed using historical data, within 95% confidence ranges. Combining the ETC and TC results together, the 100 year return period storm tide at NYH is 2.70 m (2.51–2.92 at 95% confidence), and Hurricane Sandy's storm tide of 3.38 m was a 260 year (170–420) storm tide. Deeper analyses of historical flood reports from estimated Category-3 hurricanes in 1788 and 1821 lead to new estimates and reduced uncertainties for their floods and show that Sandy's storm tide was the largest at NYH back to at least 1700. The flood exceedance curves for ETCs and TCs have sharply different slopes due to their differing meteorology and frequency, warranting separate treatment in hazard assessments. Title: A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor Author: Orton, Philip M., Hall, T. M., Talke, Stefan A., Blumberg, Alan F., Georgas, Nickitas, Vinogradov, S. Year: 2016 Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment is based on simulations of historical storms with many random tide scenarios. Synthetic TC landfall rates and the final TC and ETC flood exceedance curves are all shown to be consistent with curves computed using historical data, within 95% confidence ranges. Combining the ETC and TC results together, the 100 year return period storm tide at NYH is 2.70 m (2.51–2.92 at 95% confidence), and Hurricane Sandy's storm tide of 3.38 m was a 260 year (170–420) storm tide. Deeper analyses of historical flood reports from estimated Category-3 hurricanes in 1788 and 1821 lead to new estimates and reduced uncertainties for their floods and show that Sandy's storm tide was the largest at NYH back to at least 1700. The flood exceedance curves for ETCs and TCs have sharply different slopes due to their differing meteorology and frequency, warranting separate treatment in hazard assessments. Close

• 2. [Article] State space approach to flood stage estimation

  A flood routing and stage prediction model is developed using the techniques of State Space and Kalman filtering. The governing equation is the physically based hydrologic method of flood routing with ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: State space approach to flood stage estimation Author: Jones, Gregory Allen Year: 1984 A flood routing and stage prediction model is developed using the techniques of State Space and Kalman filtering. The governing equation is the physically based hydrologic method of flood routing with the output being an optimal estimate of stage given known inputs of streamflow. These equations are developed in state space and the Kalman filter is employed to estimate the flow and river stage. The model is applied to the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers in the State of Washington, where the stage is affected by a shifting bed elevation. With the deterministic inputs at Mayfield Dam on the Cowlitz and Tower Road on the Toutle, the optimal output of stage is predicted at Castle Rock on the Cowlitz River. Addition of the Kalman Filter improves stage prediction based on an application to an observed storm event. Title: State space approach to flood stage estimation Author: Jones, Gregory Allen Year: 1984 A flood routing and stage prediction model is developed using the techniques of State Space and Kalman filtering. The governing equation is the physically based hydrologic method of flood routing with the output being an optimal estimate of stage given known inputs of streamflow. These equations are developed in state space and the Kalman filter is employed to estimate the flow and river stage. The model is applied to the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers in the State of Washington, where the stage is affected by a shifting bed elevation. With the deterministic inputs at Mayfield Dam on the Cowlitz and Tower Road on the Toutle, the optimal output of stage is predicted at Castle Rock on the Cowlitz River. Addition of the Kalman Filter improves stage prediction based on an application to an observed storm event. Close

• 3. [Article] A Regional Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Flood Frequency Analysis

  In this study, we propose a regional Bayesian hierarchical model for flood frequency analysis. The Bayesian method is an alternative to the traditional regional flood frequency analysis. Instead of relying ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Regional Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Flood Frequency Analysis Author: Yan, Hongxiang, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2015 In this study, we propose a regional Bayesian hierarchical model for flood frequency analysis. The Bayesian method is an alternative to the traditional regional flood frequency analysis. Instead of relying on the delineation of implicit homogeneous regions, the Bayesian hierarchical method describes the spatial dependence in its inner structure. Similar to the classical Bayesian hierarchical model, the process layer of our model presents the spatial variability of the parameters by considering different covariates (e.g., drainage area, elevation, precipitation). Beyond the three classical layers (data, process, and prior) of the Bayesian hierarchical model, we add a new layer referred to as the “L-moments layer”. The L-moments layer uses L-moments theory to select the best-fit probability distribution based on the available data. This new layer can overcome the subjective selection of the distribution based on extreme value theory and determine the distribution from the data instead. By adding this layer, we can combine the merits of regional flood frequency and Bayesian methods. A standard process of covariates selection is also proposed in the Bayesian hierarchical model. The performance of the Bayesian model is assessed by a case study over the Willamette River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, U.S. The uncertainty of different flood percentiles can be quantified from the posterior distributions using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Temporal changes for the 100-year flood percentiles are also examined using a 20- and 30-year moving window method. The calculated shifts in flood risk can aid future water resources planning and management. Title: A Regional Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Flood Frequency Analysis Author: Yan, Hongxiang, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2015 In this study, we propose a regional Bayesian hierarchical model for flood frequency analysis. The Bayesian method is an alternative to the traditional regional flood frequency analysis. Instead of relying on the delineation of implicit homogeneous regions, the Bayesian hierarchical method describes the spatial dependence in its inner structure. Similar to the classical Bayesian hierarchical model, the process layer of our model presents the spatial variability of the parameters by considering different covariates (e.g., drainage area, elevation, precipitation). Beyond the three classical layers (data, process, and prior) of the Bayesian hierarchical model, we add a new layer referred to as the “L-moments layer”. The L-moments layer uses L-moments theory to select the best-fit probability distribution based on the available data. This new layer can overcome the subjective selection of the distribution based on extreme value theory and determine the distribution from the data instead. By adding this layer, we can combine the merits of regional flood frequency and Bayesian methods. A standard process of covariates selection is also proposed in the Bayesian hierarchical model. The performance of the Bayesian model is assessed by a case study over the Willamette River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, U.S. The uncertainty of different flood percentiles can be quantified from the posterior distributions using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Temporal changes for the 100-year flood percentiles are also examined using a 20- and 30-year moving window method. The calculated shifts in flood risk can aid future water resources planning and management. Close

• 4. [Article] Suspended Sediment Fluxes at an Intertidal Flat: The Shifting Influence of Wave, Wind, Tidal, and Freshwater Forcing

  Using in situ, continuous, high frequency (8–16 Hz) measurements of velocity, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and salinity, we investigate the factors affecting near-bed sediment flux during and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Suspended Sediment Fluxes at an Intertidal Flat: The Shifting Influence of Wave, Wind, Tidal, and Freshwater Forcing Author: Talke, Stefan A., Stacey, Mark T. Year: 2008 Using in situ, continuous, high frequency (8–16 Hz) measurements of velocity, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and salinity, we investigate the factors affecting near-bed sediment flux during and after a meteorological event (cold front) on an intertidal flat in central San Francisco Bay. Hydrodynamic forcing occurs over many frequency bands including wind wave, ocean swell, seiching (500–1000 s), tidal, and infra-tidal frequencies, and varies greatly over the time scale of hours and days. Sediment fluxes occur primarily due to variations in flow and SSC at three different scales: residual (tidally averaged), tidal, and seiching. During the meteorological event, sediment fluxes are dominated by increases in tidally averaged SSC and flow. Runoff and wind-induced circulation contribute to an order of magnitude increase in tidally averaged offshore flow, while waves and seiching motions from wind forcing cause an order of magnitude increase in tidally averaged SSC. Sediment fluxes during calm periods are dominated by asymmetries in SSC over a tidal cycle. Freshwater forcing produces sharp salinity fronts which trap sediment and sweep by the sensors over short (∼30 min) time scales, and occur primarily during the flood. The resulting flood dominance in SSC is magnified or reversed by variations in wind forcing between the flood and ebb. Long-term records show that more than half of wind events (sustained speeds of greater than 5 m/s) occur for 3 h or less, suggesting that asymmetric wind forcing over a tidal cycle commonly occurs. Seiching associated with wind and its variation produces onshore sediment transport. Overall, the changing hydrodynamic and meteorological forcing influence sediment flux at both short (minutes) and long (days) time scales. Title: Suspended Sediment Fluxes at an Intertidal Flat: The Shifting Influence of Wave, Wind, Tidal, and Freshwater Forcing Author: Talke, Stefan A., Stacey, Mark T. Year: 2008 Using in situ, continuous, high frequency (8–16 Hz) measurements of velocity, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and salinity, we investigate the factors affecting near-bed sediment flux during and after a meteorological event (cold front) on an intertidal flat in central San Francisco Bay. Hydrodynamic forcing occurs over many frequency bands including wind wave, ocean swell, seiching (500–1000 s), tidal, and infra-tidal frequencies, and varies greatly over the time scale of hours and days. Sediment fluxes occur primarily due to variations in flow and SSC at three different scales: residual (tidally averaged), tidal, and seiching. During the meteorological event, sediment fluxes are dominated by increases in tidally averaged SSC and flow. Runoff and wind-induced circulation contribute to an order of magnitude increase in tidally averaged offshore flow, while waves and seiching motions from wind forcing cause an order of magnitude increase in tidally averaged SSC. Sediment fluxes during calm periods are dominated by asymmetries in SSC over a tidal cycle. Freshwater forcing produces sharp salinity fronts which trap sediment and sweep by the sensors over short (∼30 min) time scales, and occur primarily during the flood. The resulting flood dominance in SSC is magnified or reversed by variations in wind forcing between the flood and ebb. Long-term records show that more than half of wind events (sustained speeds of greater than 5 m/s) occur for 3 h or less, suggesting that asymmetric wind forcing over a tidal cycle commonly occurs. Seiching associated with wind and its variation produces onshore sediment transport. Overall, the changing hydrodynamic and meteorological forcing influence sediment flux at both short (minutes) and long (days) time scales. Close

• 5. [Article] Cleaner Drain

  Water in streets causes several issues, both to our infrastructure and our emotions. The water can harm property by rotting wooden structures. If the water is high enough, it can even stall cars and flood ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Cleaner Drain Author: Paivarinta, Jonah, Ortiz‐Rojo, Daniel, Klepp, Masson, Likestoskat, Rebekah, Chadney, Macy, Ferrando, Jeremy Year: 2015 Water in streets causes several issues, both to our infrastructure and our emotions. The water can harm property by rotting wooden structures. If the water is high enough, it can even stall cars and flood into buildings. Being forced to walk through or around a puddle can hurt someone's emotional state, which reduces productivity and this affect people around them. It costs about 30 dollars to clean a drain, and there are about 15 thousand drains, which totals to to around$450,000 and if you add in other costs such as employees and street sweeping for a cleaning company it costs around 3.8 million a year. Title: Cleaner Drain Author: Paivarinta, Jonah, Ortiz‐Rojo, Daniel, Klepp, Masson, Likestoskat, Rebekah, Chadney, Macy, Ferrando, Jeremy Year: 2015 Water in streets causes several issues, both to our infrastructure and our emotions. The water can harm property by rotting wooden structures. If the water is high enough, it can even stall cars and flood into buildings. Being forced to walk through or around a puddle can hurt someone's emotional state, which reduces productivity and this affect people around them. It costs about 30 dollars to clean a drain, and there are about 15 thousand drains, which totals to to around$450,000 and if you add in other costs such as employees and street sweeping for a cleaning company it costs around 3.8 million a year. Close

• 6. [Article] Coupling the Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-W2 With a Multi-Trophic Fish Bio-Energetics Model for Lake Roosevelt, Washington

  Grand Coulee Dam created Franklin D. Roosevelt Lake as part of the Columbia Basin Project. Located in northeastern Washington State, the Project provides economically important hydropower (19 billion kilowatt ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coupling the Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-W2 With a Multi-Trophic Fish Bio-Energetics Model for Lake Roosevelt, Washington Author: McKillip, Michael Lee Year: 2008 Grand Coulee Dam created Franklin D. Roosevelt Lake as part of the Columbia Basin Project. Located in northeastern Washington State, the Project provides economically important hydropower (19 billion kilowatt hours per year), irrigation (225,000 ha), flood control, and sport fishing ($5 to 20 million annually). A good system understanding aids in balancing these beneficial uses for the 230 km long reservoir. The reservoir's atypical 45-day mean residence time is much shorter than a typical lake, and much longer than for a riverine dam. The spring freshet requires drawdowns of 15 to 20 m for flood control—the driving characteristic of reservoir operations. A physically based two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2 Version 3.5 (Cole and Wells, 2006), is coupled with a fish bioenergetics model based on the Stockwell and Johnson model (1997, 1999) to examine the effects of hydrodynamics on the reservoir algae-zooplankton-kokanee food web. This model was applied and calibrated to Lake Roosevelt with model improvements of multiple zooplankton compartments and zooplankton omnivory. Calibration parameters included temperature, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, algae, and zooplankton. The fish bioenergetics model is applied over the entire reservoir model space to generate a spatial and temporal fish growth potential distribution. The fish model refinements include sub-daily time-steps and an optimized vertical foraging strategy. The linked model suggests that kokanee fish growth potential is seasonally limited by both warm water and prey densities. While the lake ecology is significantly affected by the reservoir operations in general, the pelagic fish growth potential did not appear sensitive to minor changes in reservoir operations. However, the model suggests that the advantageous foraging locations shift seasonally and that optimal foraging strategies are dependent on fish size. Title: Coupling the Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model CE-QUAL-W2 With a Multi-Trophic Fish Bio-Energetics Model for Lake Roosevelt, Washington Author: McKillip, Michael Lee Year: 2008 Grand Coulee Dam created Franklin D. Roosevelt Lake as part of the Columbia Basin Project. Located in northeastern Washington State, the Project provides economically important hydropower (19 billion kilowatt hours per year), irrigation (225,000 ha), flood control, and sport fishing ($5 to 20 million annually). A good system understanding aids in balancing these beneficial uses for the 230 km long reservoir. The reservoir's atypical 45-day mean residence time is much shorter than a typical lake, and much longer than for a riverine dam. The spring freshet requires drawdowns of 15 to 20 m for flood control—the driving characteristic of reservoir operations. A physically based two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2 Version 3.5 (Cole and Wells, 2006), is coupled with a fish bioenergetics model based on the Stockwell and Johnson model (1997, 1999) to examine the effects of hydrodynamics on the reservoir algae-zooplankton-kokanee food web. This model was applied and calibrated to Lake Roosevelt with model improvements of multiple zooplankton compartments and zooplankton omnivory. Calibration parameters included temperature, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, algae, and zooplankton. The fish bioenergetics model is applied over the entire reservoir model space to generate a spatial and temporal fish growth potential distribution. The fish model refinements include sub-daily time-steps and an optimized vertical foraging strategy. The linked model suggests that kokanee fish growth potential is seasonally limited by both warm water and prey densities. While the lake ecology is significantly affected by the reservoir operations in general, the pelagic fish growth potential did not appear sensitive to minor changes in reservoir operations. However, the model suggests that the advantageous foraging locations shift seasonally and that optimal foraging strategies are dependent on fish size. Close