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• 1. [Article] Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest

  Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Close

• 2. [Article] Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health

  Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health Author: Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A., Shandas, Vivek, Rosenstiel, Todd N. Year: 2017 Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO2 observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO2 with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO2 and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO2, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO2 associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4–12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health. Title: Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health Author: Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A., Shandas, Vivek, Rosenstiel, Todd N. Year: 2017 Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO2 observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO2 with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO2 and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO2, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO2 associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4–12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health. Close

• 3. [Article] From Stumptown to Treetown: A Field Guide for Interpreting Portland’s History though its Heritage Trees

  Portland’s urban forest is rooted in the city’s history. This guide is the first of its kind to use historic literature, archival collections, and living trees as evidence to interpret Portland’s history. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: From Stumptown to Treetown: A Field Guide for Interpreting Portland’s History though its Heritage Trees Author: Hedberg, David-Paul B. Year: 2015 Portland’s urban forest is rooted in the city’s history. This guide is the first of its kind to use historic literature, archival collections, and living trees as evidence to interpret Portland’s history. Trees are some of our city’s oldest living artifacts and this guide will show you some of the many ways to see and interpret both history and nature in Portland. Title: From Stumptown to Treetown: A Field Guide for Interpreting Portland’s History though its Heritage Trees Author: Hedberg, David-Paul B. Year: 2015 Portland’s urban forest is rooted in the city’s history. This guide is the first of its kind to use historic literature, archival collections, and living trees as evidence to interpret Portland’s history. Trees are some of our city’s oldest living artifacts and this guide will show you some of the many ways to see and interpret both history and nature in Portland. Close

• 4. [Article] Integrating High-Resolution Datasets to Target Mitigation Efforts for Improving Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Neighborhoods

  Reducing exposure to degraded air quality is essential for building healthy cities. Although air quality and population vary at fine spatial scales, current regulatory and public health frameworks assess ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Integrating High-Resolution Datasets to Target Mitigation Efforts for Improving Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Neighborhoods Author: Shandas, Vivek, Voelkel, Jackson, Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A. Year: 2016 Reducing exposure to degraded air quality is essential for building healthy cities. Although air quality and population vary at fine spatial scales, current regulatory and public health frameworks assess human exposures using county- or city-scales. We build on a spatial analysis technique, dasymetric mapping, for allocating urban populations that, together with emerging fine-scale measurements of air pollution, addresses three objectives: (1) evaluate the role of spatial scale in estimating exposure; (2) identify urban communities that are disproportionately burdened by poor air quality; and (3) estimate reduction in mobile sources of pollutants due to local tree-planting efforts using nitrogen dioxide. Our results show a maximum value of 197% difference between cadastrally-informed dasymetric system (CIDS) and standard estimations of population exposure to degraded air quality for small spatial extent analyses, and a lack of substantial difference for large spatial extent analyses. These results provide the foundation for improving policies for managing air quality, and targeting mitigation efforts to address challenges of environmental justice. Title: Integrating High-Resolution Datasets to Target Mitigation Efforts for Improving Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Neighborhoods Author: Shandas, Vivek, Voelkel, Jackson, Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A. Year: 2016 Reducing exposure to degraded air quality is essential for building healthy cities. Although air quality and population vary at fine spatial scales, current regulatory and public health frameworks assess human exposures using county- or city-scales. We build on a spatial analysis technique, dasymetric mapping, for allocating urban populations that, together with emerging fine-scale measurements of air pollution, addresses three objectives: (1) evaluate the role of spatial scale in estimating exposure; (2) identify urban communities that are disproportionately burdened by poor air quality; and (3) estimate reduction in mobile sources of pollutants due to local tree-planting efforts using nitrogen dioxide. Our results show a maximum value of 197% difference between cadastrally-informed dasymetric system (CIDS) and standard estimations of population exposure to degraded air quality for small spatial extent analyses, and a lack of substantial difference for large spatial extent analyses. These results provide the foundation for improving policies for managing air quality, and targeting mitigation efforts to address challenges of environmental justice. Close

• 5. [Article] Tree Cover Mapping for Assessing Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat in Eastern Oregon

  We used a predictive model to map canopy cover of vegetation over seven feet in height ("tall woody vegetation") at 30-meter resolution over nearly 29 million acres within and adjacent to the range of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tree Cover Mapping for Assessing Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat in Eastern Oregon Author: Nielsen, Eric M., Noone, Matthew D. Year: 2014 We used a predictive model to map canopy cover of vegetation over seven feet in height ("tall woody vegetation") at 30-meter resolution over nearly 29 million acres within and adjacent to the range of the greater sage-grouse in Oregon (Figure 1). Texture measures computed at various resolutions from color-infrared aerial photography provided the main source of predictor data used to produce the map. Canopy cover was treated as a categorical variable using six cover classes: absent (cover class C0), present at less than 4% (C1), 4 – 10% (C2), 10 – 20% (C3), 20 – 50% (C4), and 50% and over (C5). The map is referenced to conditions in the years 2011 and 2012. Although the specific target of the mapping was western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis), our reference data did not permit separating juniper from other tall woody vegetation during the predictive modeling process. The majority of the tall woody vegetation within the project area is western juniper. However, in high elevation regions, riparian, wetland, and residential areas, other vegetation is occasionally represented. The methodology discussed here produces raw modeled data. It is recommended that prior to use in most applications this raw tree cover product be additionally filtered or masked to eliminate false detections which often occur adjacent to agricultural areas and roads. For species-specific applications, an additional modeling phase is necessary to either eliminate tree cover detections likely to be species other than the target, or to model species importance values associated with each tree occurrence. Title: Tree Cover Mapping for Assessing Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat in Eastern Oregon Author: Nielsen, Eric M., Noone, Matthew D. Year: 2014 We used a predictive model to map canopy cover of vegetation over seven feet in height ("tall woody vegetation") at 30-meter resolution over nearly 29 million acres within and adjacent to the range of the greater sage-grouse in Oregon (Figure 1). Texture measures computed at various resolutions from color-infrared aerial photography provided the main source of predictor data used to produce the map. Canopy cover was treated as a categorical variable using six cover classes: absent (cover class C0), present at less than 4% (C1), 4 – 10% (C2), 10 – 20% (C3), 20 – 50% (C4), and 50% and over (C5). The map is referenced to conditions in the years 2011 and 2012. Although the specific target of the mapping was western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis), our reference data did not permit separating juniper from other tall woody vegetation during the predictive modeling process. The majority of the tall woody vegetation within the project area is western juniper. However, in high elevation regions, riparian, wetland, and residential areas, other vegetation is occasionally represented. The methodology discussed here produces raw modeled data. It is recommended that prior to use in most applications this raw tree cover product be additionally filtered or masked to eliminate false detections which often occur adjacent to agricultural areas and roads. For species-specific applications, an additional modeling phase is necessary to either eliminate tree cover detections likely to be species other than the target, or to model species importance values associated with each tree occurrence. Close

• 6. [Article] Investigating the Potential of Land Use Modifications to Mitigate the Respiratory Health Impacts of NO2: A Case Study in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area

  The health impacts of urban air pollution are a growing concern in our rapidly urbanizing world. Urban air pollutants show high intra-urban spatial variability linked to urban land use and land cover (LULC). ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Investigating the Potential of Land Use Modifications to Mitigate the Respiratory Health Impacts of NO2: A Case Study in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area Author: Rao, Meenakshi Year: 2016 The health impacts of urban air pollution are a growing concern in our rapidly urbanizing world. Urban air pollutants show high intra-urban spatial variability linked to urban land use and land cover (LULC). This correlation of air pollutants with LULC is widely recognized; LULC data is an integral input into a wide range of models, especially land use regression models developed by epidemiologists to study the impact of air pollution on human health. Given the demonstrated links between LULC and urban air pollution, and between urban air pollution and health, an interesting question arises: what is the potential of LULC modifications to mitigate the health impacts of urban air pollution? In this dissertation we assess the potential of LULC modifications to mitigate the health impacts of NO2, a respiratory irritant and strong marker for combustion-related air pollution, in the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area in northwestern USA. We begin by measuring summer and winter NO2 in the area using a spatially dense network of passive NO2 samplers. We next develop an annual average model for NO2 based on the observational data, using random forest -- for the first time in the realm of urban air pollution -- to disentangle the effects of highly correlated LULC variables on ambient NO2 concentrations. We apply this random forest (LURF) model to a 200m spatial grid covering the study area, and use this 200m LURF model to quantify the effect of different urban land use categories on ambient concentrations of NO2. Using the changes in ambient NO2 concentrations resulting from land use modifications as input to BenMAP (a health benefits assessment tool form the US EPA), we assess the NO2-related health impact associated with each land use category and its modifications. We demonstrate how the LURF model can be used to assess the respiratory health benefits of competing land use modifications, including city-wide and local-scale mitigation strategies based on modifying tree canopy and vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Planting trees is a common land cover modification strategy undertaken by cities to reduce air pollution. Statistical models such as LUR and LURF demonstrate a correlation between tree cover and reduced air pollution, but they cannot demonstrate causation. Hence, we run the atmospheric chemistry and transport model CMAQ to examine to what extent the dry deposition mechanism can explain the reduction of NO2 which statistical models associate with tree canopy. Results from our research indicate that even though the Portland-Vancouver area is in compliance with the US EPA NO2 standards, ambient concentrations of NO2 still create an annual health burden of at least $40 million USD. Our model suggests that NO2 associated with high intensity development and VMT may be creating an annual health burden of $7 million and $3.3 million USD respectively. Existing tree canopy, on the other hand, is associated with an annual health benefit of $1.4 million USD. LULC modifications can mitigate some fraction of this health burden. A 2% increase in tree canopy across the study area may reduce incidence rates of asthma exacerbation by as much as 7%. We also find that increasing tree canopy is a more effective strategy than reducing VMT in terms of mitigating the health burden of NO2. CMAQ indicates that the amount of NO2 removed by dry deposition is an order of magnitude smaller than that predicted by our statistical model. About one-third of the difference can be explained by the lower NO2 values predicted by CMAQ, and one-third may be attributable to parameterization of stomatal uptake. Title: Investigating the Potential of Land Use Modifications to Mitigate the Respiratory Health Impacts of NO2: A Case Study in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area Author: Rao, Meenakshi Year: 2016 The health impacts of urban air pollution are a growing concern in our rapidly urbanizing world. Urban air pollutants show high intra-urban spatial variability linked to urban land use and land cover (LULC). This correlation of air pollutants with LULC is widely recognized; LULC data is an integral input into a wide range of models, especially land use regression models developed by epidemiologists to study the impact of air pollution on human health. Given the demonstrated links between LULC and urban air pollution, and between urban air pollution and health, an interesting question arises: what is the potential of LULC modifications to mitigate the health impacts of urban air pollution? In this dissertation we assess the potential of LULC modifications to mitigate the health impacts of NO2, a respiratory irritant and strong marker for combustion-related air pollution, in the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area in northwestern USA. We begin by measuring summer and winter NO2 in the area using a spatially dense network of passive NO2 samplers. We next develop an annual average model for NO2 based on the observational data, using random forest -- for the first time in the realm of urban air pollution -- to disentangle the effects of highly correlated LULC variables on ambient NO2 concentrations. We apply this random forest (LURF) model to a 200m spatial grid covering the study area, and use this 200m LURF model to quantify the effect of different urban land use categories on ambient concentrations of NO2. Using the changes in ambient NO2 concentrations resulting from land use modifications as input to BenMAP (a health benefits assessment tool form the US EPA), we assess the NO2-related health impact associated with each land use category and its modifications. We demonstrate how the LURF model can be used to assess the respiratory health benefits of competing land use modifications, including city-wide and local-scale mitigation strategies based on modifying tree canopy and vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Planting trees is a common land cover modification strategy undertaken by cities to reduce air pollution. Statistical models such as LUR and LURF demonstrate a correlation between tree cover and reduced air pollution, but they cannot demonstrate causation. Hence, we run the atmospheric chemistry and transport model CMAQ to examine to what extent the dry deposition mechanism can explain the reduction of NO2 which statistical models associate with tree canopy. Results from our research indicate that even though the Portland-Vancouver area is in compliance with the US EPA NO2 standards, ambient concentrations of NO2 still create an annual health burden of at least $40 million USD. Our model suggests that NO2 associated with high intensity development and VMT may be creating an annual health burden of $7 million and $3.3 million USD respectively. Existing tree canopy, on the other hand, is associated with an annual health benefit of $1.4 million USD. LULC modifications can mitigate some fraction of this health burden. A 2% increase in tree canopy across the study area may reduce incidence rates of asthma exacerbation by as much as 7%. We also find that increasing tree canopy is a more effective strategy than reducing VMT in terms of mitigating the health burden of NO2. CMAQ indicates that the amount of NO2 removed by dry deposition is an order of magnitude smaller than that predicted by our statistical model. About one-third of the difference can be explained by the lower NO2 values predicted by CMAQ, and one-third may be attributable to parameterization of stomatal uptake. Close

• 7. [Article] Spatial and Temporal Variability of Contaminants Within Estuarine Sediments and Native Olympia Oysters: A Contrast Between a Developed and an Undeveloped Estuary

  Chemical contaminants can be introduced into estuarine and marine ecosystems from a variety of sources including wastewater, agriculture and forestry practices, point and non-point discharges, runoff from ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial and Temporal Variability of Contaminants Within Estuarine Sediments and Native Olympia Oysters: A Contrast Between a Developed and an Undeveloped Estuary Author: Granek, Elise F., Conn, Katherine E., Nilsen, Elena B., Pillsbury, Lori, Strecker, Angela L., Rumrill, Steven S., Fish, William Year: 2016 Chemical contaminants can be introduced into estuarine and marine ecosystems from a variety of sources including wastewater, agriculture and forestry practices, point and non-point discharges, runoff from industrial, municipal, and urban lands, accidental spills, and atmospheric deposition. The diversity of potential sources contributes to the likelihood of contaminated marine waters and sediments and increases the probability of uptake by marine organisms. Despite widespread recognition of direct and indirect pathways for contaminant deposition and organismal exposure in coastal systems, spatial and temporal variability in contaminant composition, deposition, and uptake patterns are still poorly known. We investigated these patterns for a suite of persistent legacy contaminants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and chemicals of emerging concern including pharmaceuticals within two Oregon coastal estuaries (Coos and Netarts Bays). In the more urbanized Coos Bay, native Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) tissue had approximately twice the number of PCB congeners at over seven times the total concentration, yet fewer PBDEs at one-tenth the concentration as compared to the more rural Netarts Bay. Different pharmaceutical suites were detected during each sampling season. Variability in contaminant types and concentrations across seasons and between species and media (organisms versus sediment) indicates the limitation of using indicator species and/or sampling annually to determine contaminant loads at a site or for specific species. The results indicate the prevalence of legacy contaminants and CECs in relatively undeveloped coastal environments highlighting the need to improve policy and management actions to reduce contaminant releases into estuarine and marine waters and to deal with legacy compounds that remain long after prohibition of use. Our results point to the need for better understanding of the ecological and human health risks of exposure to the diverse cocktail of pollutants and harmful compounds that will continue to leach from estuarine sediments over time. Title: Spatial and Temporal Variability of Contaminants Within Estuarine Sediments and Native Olympia Oysters: A Contrast Between a Developed and an Undeveloped Estuary Author: Granek, Elise F., Conn, Katherine E., Nilsen, Elena B., Pillsbury, Lori, Strecker, Angela L., Rumrill, Steven S., Fish, William Year: 2016 Chemical contaminants can be introduced into estuarine and marine ecosystems from a variety of sources including wastewater, agriculture and forestry practices, point and non-point discharges, runoff from industrial, municipal, and urban lands, accidental spills, and atmospheric deposition. The diversity of potential sources contributes to the likelihood of contaminated marine waters and sediments and increases the probability of uptake by marine organisms. Despite widespread recognition of direct and indirect pathways for contaminant deposition and organismal exposure in coastal systems, spatial and temporal variability in contaminant composition, deposition, and uptake patterns are still poorly known. We investigated these patterns for a suite of persistent legacy contaminants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and chemicals of emerging concern including pharmaceuticals within two Oregon coastal estuaries (Coos and Netarts Bays). In the more urbanized Coos Bay, native Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) tissue had approximately twice the number of PCB congeners at over seven times the total concentration, yet fewer PBDEs at one-tenth the concentration as compared to the more rural Netarts Bay. Different pharmaceutical suites were detected during each sampling season. Variability in contaminant types and concentrations across seasons and between species and media (organisms versus sediment) indicates the limitation of using indicator species and/or sampling annually to determine contaminant loads at a site or for specific species. The results indicate the prevalence of legacy contaminants and CECs in relatively undeveloped coastal environments highlighting the need to improve policy and management actions to reduce contaminant releases into estuarine and marine waters and to deal with legacy compounds that remain long after prohibition of use. Our results point to the need for better understanding of the ecological and human health risks of exposure to the diverse cocktail of pollutants and harmful compounds that will continue to leach from estuarine sediments over time. Close

• 8. [Article] Wildfire Risk as a Socioecological Pathology

  Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Wildfire Risk as a Socioecological Pathology Author: Fischer, A. Paige, Spies, Thomas A., Steelman, Toddi A., Moseley, Cassandra, Johnson, Bart R., Bailey, John D., Ager, Alan A., Bourgeron, Patrick, Charnley, Susan, Collins, Brandon M., Kline, Jeffrey D., Leahy, Jessica E., Littell, Jeremy S., Millington, James D. A., Nielsen-Pincus, Max, Olsen, Christine S., Paveglio, Travis B., Roos, Christopher I., Steen-Adams, Michelle M., Stevens, Forrest R., Vukomanovic, Jelena, White, Eric M., Bowman, David Year: 2016 Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS. Title: Wildfire Risk as a Socioecological Pathology Author: Fischer, A. Paige, Spies, Thomas A., Steelman, Toddi A., Moseley, Cassandra, Johnson, Bart R., Bailey, John D., Ager, Alan A., Bourgeron, Patrick, Charnley, Susan, Collins, Brandon M., Kline, Jeffrey D., Leahy, Jessica E., Littell, Jeremy S., Millington, James D. A., Nielsen-Pincus, Max, Olsen, Christine S., Paveglio, Travis B., Roos, Christopher I., Steen-Adams, Michelle M., Stevens, Forrest R., Vukomanovic, Jelena, White, Eric M., Bowman, David Year: 2016 Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS. Close

• 9. [Article] Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management

  Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Gustafson, Eric J., Sturtevant, Brian R. Year: 2017 Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Objectives: Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Methods: Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Results: Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience. Title: Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Gustafson, Eric J., Sturtevant, Brian R. Year: 2017 Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Objectives: Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Methods: Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Results: Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience. Close

• 10. [Article] The Community Economic Impacts of Large Wildfires: A Case Study from Trinity County, California

  Wildfires are increasing in severity and frequency in the American West, but there is limited understanding of their economic effects at the community level. We conducted a case study of the impacts of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Community Economic Impacts of Large Wildfires: A Case Study from Trinity County, California Author: Davis, Emily Jane, Moseley, Cassandra, Nielsen-Pincus, Max, Jakes, Pamela J. Year: 2014 Wildfires are increasing in severity and frequency in the American West, but there is limited understanding of their economic effects at the community level. We conducted a case study of the impacts of large wildfires in 2008 in Trinity County, California, by examining labor market, suppression spending, and qualitative interview data. We found that the 2008 fires had interrelated effects on several economic sectors in the county. Labor market data indicated a decrease in total private-sector employment and wages and an increase in public-sector employment and wages during the summer of 2008 compared to the previous year, while interviews captured more nuanced impacts for individual businesses. Title: The Community Economic Impacts of Large Wildfires: A Case Study from Trinity County, California Author: Davis, Emily Jane, Moseley, Cassandra, Nielsen-Pincus, Max, Jakes, Pamela J. Year: 2014 Wildfires are increasing in severity and frequency in the American West, but there is limited understanding of their economic effects at the community level. We conducted a case study of the impacts of large wildfires in 2008 in Trinity County, California, by examining labor market, suppression spending, and qualitative interview data. We found that the 2008 fires had interrelated effects on several economic sectors in the county. Labor market data indicated a decrease in total private-sector employment and wages and an increase in public-sector employment and wages during the summer of 2008 compared to the previous year, while interviews captured more nuanced impacts for individual businesses. Close