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• 1. [Article] Strengthening the Resiliency of Dryland Forest-Based Livelihoods in Ethiopia and South Sudan: A Review of Literature on the Interaction Between Dryland Forests, Livelihoods and Forest Governance

  Dry forests account for nearly half of the world’s tropical and subtropical forests and provide a multitude of ecological services. They contribute to hydrological cycles and livestock and wildlife provisioning; ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Strengthening the Resiliency of Dryland Forest-Based Livelihoods in Ethiopia and South Sudan: A Review of Literature on the Interaction Between Dryland Forests, Livelihoods and Forest Governance Author: Lawry, Steven, McLain, Rebecca J., Kassa, Habtemariam Year: 2015 Dry forests account for nearly half of the world’s tropical and subtropical forests and provide a multitude of ecological services. They contribute to hydrological cycles and livestock and wildlife provisioning; and host pollinators and wild plants. They are also important ecological zones for dryland agriculture and pastoral livelihood strategies that support hundreds of millions of people around the world. Dry forests cover large areas and their biomass stores carbon and helps mitigate climate change. Dry forests are particularly important to people in Africa. They provide wood for construction and energy, contribute to local diets with wild fruits, vegetables, nuts, edible insects and bushmeat. Wild, edible plants provide essential nutrients, particularly during times of food scarcity. Yet dry forests are subject to high rates of deforestation and degradation driven mainly by agricultural expansion and growing energy demands. Other challenges include limited information on dry forests (their inventories, changes over time, major drivers of deforestation and recovery, etc.), their biophysical aspects and ecosystem services and the potential roles they could play in increasing the sustainability of crop and livestock farming. Governments, development partners and communities are looking for options to better manage these resources at the landscape level. Dry forests are complex ecosystems that are not fully understood. Scientific knowledge to better manage dry forests and sustain the livelihoods of people that depend on these ecosystems remains scanty as research to inform policy and practice is still very limited. The knowledge gap is even more pronounced in northeastern Africa, notably Ethiopia and South Sudan where these forest types are important in terms of areas coverage and in supporting rural livelihoods. Ethiopia and South Sudan share histories of political unrest and conflict that have contributed to famines; large-scale land acquisition for investment and agricultural expansion by smallholders are resulting in major and rapid land-use changes in their dry forested areas. Ethiopia’s two decades of peace and stability and its experience in managing its natural resources could inform post-conflict intervention measures in South Sudan. This study was conducted as an effort to help fill the knowledge gap in dry forest-based livelihoods through a critical review of the available literature. It used publications from CIFOR’s work on dry forests and product marketing in Ethiopia and from other sources, including gray literature. The study assessed the socio-ecological context, including relevant laws and strategies, with an emphasis on the biophysical characteristics of the dryland forests of Ethiopia and South Sudan and the major causes of deforestation and forest degradation. Using livelihood systems as an analytical framework, it examined (i) major livelihood strategies; (ii) the contribution of dry forests to livelihoods; (iii) forest product markets and value chains; and (iv) forest and land governance with an emphasis on the relationship between political, economic and resource management policies and the level of degradation of dry forests and their contributions to the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities in Ethiopia and South Sudan. It also identified major threats to dry, forest-based livelihoods and key issues for policy, research and practice that need to be addressed to maintain the multifunctionality of dryland forests while also ensuring the well-being of communities dependent on these landscapes. Title: Strengthening the Resiliency of Dryland Forest-Based Livelihoods in Ethiopia and South Sudan: A Review of Literature on the Interaction Between Dryland Forests, Livelihoods and Forest Governance Author: Lawry, Steven, McLain, Rebecca J., Kassa, Habtemariam Year: 2015 Dry forests account for nearly half of the world’s tropical and subtropical forests and provide a multitude of ecological services. They contribute to hydrological cycles and livestock and wildlife provisioning; and host pollinators and wild plants. They are also important ecological zones for dryland agriculture and pastoral livelihood strategies that support hundreds of millions of people around the world. Dry forests cover large areas and their biomass stores carbon and helps mitigate climate change. Dry forests are particularly important to people in Africa. They provide wood for construction and energy, contribute to local diets with wild fruits, vegetables, nuts, edible insects and bushmeat. Wild, edible plants provide essential nutrients, particularly during times of food scarcity. Yet dry forests are subject to high rates of deforestation and degradation driven mainly by agricultural expansion and growing energy demands. Other challenges include limited information on dry forests (their inventories, changes over time, major drivers of deforestation and recovery, etc.), their biophysical aspects and ecosystem services and the potential roles they could play in increasing the sustainability of crop and livestock farming. Governments, development partners and communities are looking for options to better manage these resources at the landscape level. Dry forests are complex ecosystems that are not fully understood. Scientific knowledge to better manage dry forests and sustain the livelihoods of people that depend on these ecosystems remains scanty as research to inform policy and practice is still very limited. The knowledge gap is even more pronounced in northeastern Africa, notably Ethiopia and South Sudan where these forest types are important in terms of areas coverage and in supporting rural livelihoods. Ethiopia and South Sudan share histories of political unrest and conflict that have contributed to famines; large-scale land acquisition for investment and agricultural expansion by smallholders are resulting in major and rapid land-use changes in their dry forested areas. Ethiopia’s two decades of peace and stability and its experience in managing its natural resources could inform post-conflict intervention measures in South Sudan. This study was conducted as an effort to help fill the knowledge gap in dry forest-based livelihoods through a critical review of the available literature. It used publications from CIFOR’s work on dry forests and product marketing in Ethiopia and from other sources, including gray literature. The study assessed the socio-ecological context, including relevant laws and strategies, with an emphasis on the biophysical characteristics of the dryland forests of Ethiopia and South Sudan and the major causes of deforestation and forest degradation. Using livelihood systems as an analytical framework, it examined (i) major livelihood strategies; (ii) the contribution of dry forests to livelihoods; (iii) forest product markets and value chains; and (iv) forest and land governance with an emphasis on the relationship between political, economic and resource management policies and the level of degradation of dry forests and their contributions to the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities in Ethiopia and South Sudan. It also identified major threats to dry, forest-based livelihoods and key issues for policy, research and practice that need to be addressed to maintain the multifunctionality of dryland forests while also ensuring the well-being of communities dependent on these landscapes. Close

• 2. [Article] Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

  We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA Author: Ager, Alan A., Day, Michelle A., Short, Karen C., Evers, Cody R. Year: 2016 We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent WUIs. The bulk of the predicted WUI exposure originated from simulated fires ignited outside of conservation and preservation reserves and in dry forests, rather than moist mixed conifer forests. Thus the notion that fuel buildup in reserves on national forests contributes to wildfire risk in the urban interface was only partially supported by the data for the region studied. Most of the national forest lands that contribute wildfires to the WUI are not within the boundaries of community wildfire protection plans, which may undermine the effectiveness of these planning efforts. We used the spatial data themes developed in the study to map conflicts and opportunities for restoration and mitigation of WUI wildfire risk. The analysis disentangles the spatial complexity of managing landscapes for multiple socio-ecological objectives as part of ongoing restoration programs, collaborative planning, and national forest plan revisions on national forests in the US. Title: Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA Author: Ager, Alan A., Day, Michelle A., Short, Karen C., Evers, Cody R. Year: 2016 We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent WUIs. The bulk of the predicted WUI exposure originated from simulated fires ignited outside of conservation and preservation reserves and in dry forests, rather than moist mixed conifer forests. Thus the notion that fuel buildup in reserves on national forests contributes to wildfire risk in the urban interface was only partially supported by the data for the region studied. Most of the national forest lands that contribute wildfires to the WUI are not within the boundaries of community wildfire protection plans, which may undermine the effectiveness of these planning efforts. We used the spatial data themes developed in the study to map conflicts and opportunities for restoration and mitigation of WUI wildfire risk. The analysis disentangles the spatial complexity of managing landscapes for multiple socio-ecological objectives as part of ongoing restoration programs, collaborative planning, and national forest plan revisions on national forests in the US. Close

• 3. [Article] Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances: Vegetation Dynamics and Biogeochemistry

  This is a book chapter within Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances. Forest landscape disturbances are a global phenomenon. Simulation models are an important tool in understanding these ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances: Vegetation Dynamics and Biogeochemistry Author: Scheller, Robert M., Swanson, Mark E. Year: 2015 This is a book chapter within Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances. Forest landscape disturbances are a global phenomenon. Simulation models are an important tool in understanding these broad scale processes and exploring their effects on forest ecosystems. This book contains a collection of insights from a group of ecologists who address a variety of processes: physical disturbances such as drought, wind, and fire; biological disturbances such as defoliating insects and bark beetles; anthropogenic influences; interactions among disturbances; effects of climate change on disturbances; and the recovery of forest landscapes from disturbances—all from a simulation modeling perspective. These discussions and examples offer a broad synopsis of the state of this rapidly evolving subject. Title: Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances: Vegetation Dynamics and Biogeochemistry Author: Scheller, Robert M., Swanson, Mark E. Year: 2015 This is a book chapter within Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances. Forest landscape disturbances are a global phenomenon. Simulation models are an important tool in understanding these broad scale processes and exploring their effects on forest ecosystems. This book contains a collection of insights from a group of ecologists who address a variety of processes: physical disturbances such as drought, wind, and fire; biological disturbances such as defoliating insects and bark beetles; anthropogenic influences; interactions among disturbances; effects of climate change on disturbances; and the recovery of forest landscapes from disturbances—all from a simulation modeling perspective. These discussions and examples offer a broad synopsis of the state of this rapidly evolving subject. Close

• 4. [Article] Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+

  Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+ Author: Luintel, Harisharan Year: 2016 Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth of such forests are under the control of local communities, which primarily manage forests for subsistence and to meet their livelihood needs. The trend of bottom-up community control is increasing through the adoption of decentralization reforms over the last 40 years. In contrast, the United Nations has introduced the top-down program, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) for the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon and the sustainable management of forest in developing countries. REDD+ incentivizes forest-managing communities to sequester carbon and reduce emissions. REDD+ has created hope for managing forests to mitigate climate change and has created fear that the new initiative may not be effective and may not ensure continuing forest-managing community benefits. However, little research has been conducted to answer these concerns. By taking nationally representative data from Nepalese community-managed forests (“forest commons"), I bring insights into whether and how these forests can contribute to REDD+ initiatives, particularly as they relate to carbon sequestration, biodiversity, equity in benefit sharing and collective action. My results indicated the highly variable carbon and biodiversity in the forest plots across the country, depicting the availability of space for additional growth in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation. My results also reflect the complex and varied relationships of carbon with different indices of biodiversity at the national level, across geographic and topographic regions, and in forests with varying canopy covers. Weak positive relationships between carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation indicate the possibility of synergies between carbon-forestry and biodiversity conservation. I also found that the formal community forestry program (CFP) has clearly positive impacts on biodiversity conservation and household-level equity in benefit sharing and a negative impact on carbon sequestration at the national level. However, disaggregated results of impacts of CFP on biodiversity, carbon and equity across geography, topography, forest quality and social groups display mixed results i.e., either positive or negative or neutral. I also identified that different drivers of collective action have different (i.e., positive, neutral, and negative) associations with carbon sequestration, which either supports or challenges established knowledge. In aggregate, my research indicates the potential of contribution by forest commons, and specially the CFP, to global environmental initiatives such as REDD+. It suggests that targeted, dedicated policies and programs to increase carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation and foster equity and collective actions are critical. In addition, my results also contribute to the growing literature on socio-ecological implications of forest commons that demonstrated the need of interdisciplinary research to understand human-nature relationships in the changing context. Title: Do Forest Commons Contribute to International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Nepalese Forest Commons in view of REDD+ Author: Luintel, Harisharan Year: 2016 Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth of such forests are under the control of local communities, which primarily manage forests for subsistence and to meet their livelihood needs. The trend of bottom-up community control is increasing through the adoption of decentralization reforms over the last 40 years. In contrast, the United Nations has introduced the top-down program, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) for the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon and the sustainable management of forest in developing countries. REDD+ incentivizes forest-managing communities to sequester carbon and reduce emissions. REDD+ has created hope for managing forests to mitigate climate change and has created fear that the new initiative may not be effective and may not ensure continuing forest-managing community benefits. However, little research has been conducted to answer these concerns. By taking nationally representative data from Nepalese community-managed forests (“forest commons"), I bring insights into whether and how these forests can contribute to REDD+ initiatives, particularly as they relate to carbon sequestration, biodiversity, equity in benefit sharing and collective action. My results indicated the highly variable carbon and biodiversity in the forest plots across the country, depicting the availability of space for additional growth in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation. My results also reflect the complex and varied relationships of carbon with different indices of biodiversity at the national level, across geographic and topographic regions, and in forests with varying canopy covers. Weak positive relationships between carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation indicate the possibility of synergies between carbon-forestry and biodiversity conservation. I also found that the formal community forestry program (CFP) has clearly positive impacts on biodiversity conservation and household-level equity in benefit sharing and a negative impact on carbon sequestration at the national level. However, disaggregated results of impacts of CFP on biodiversity, carbon and equity across geography, topography, forest quality and social groups display mixed results i.e., either positive or negative or neutral. I also identified that different drivers of collective action have different (i.e., positive, neutral, and negative) associations with carbon sequestration, which either supports or challenges established knowledge. In aggregate, my research indicates the potential of contribution by forest commons, and specially the CFP, to global environmental initiatives such as REDD+. It suggests that targeted, dedicated policies and programs to increase carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation and foster equity and collective actions are critical. In addition, my results also contribute to the growing literature on socio-ecological implications of forest commons that demonstrated the need of interdisciplinary research to understand human-nature relationships in the changing context. Close

• 5. [Article] Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity

  Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Close

• 6. [Article] Evaluating the Success of Forest Restoration

  Forest restoration projects are occurring throughout the world. Restoration projects can vary greatly depending on the type of forest and the type of stressors that have caused ecosystem degradation and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluating the Success of Forest Restoration Author: Adams, Josh Year: 2015 Forest restoration projects are occurring throughout the world. Restoration projects can vary greatly depending on the type of forest and the type of stressors that have caused ecosystem degradation and the need for restoration. Because of this variability, and because objective criteria for determining the success of restoration projects are lacking, it is difficult to evaluate the overall success of forest restoration projects. Using ecological standards developed for river restoration as a model, a similar set of standards was applied to forest restoration projects. The standards put forward can be used to evaluate the success of ecosystem restoration universally through the use of site-specific indicators of ecological success. This analysis found that many but not all of the criteria are being used to evaluate forest restoration success. Furthermore, the ecological health of the restored ecosystem is not always prioritized, as socioeconomic values are occasionally favored. Thus, it is important for a set of evaluation criteria primarily related to ecological health to be readily accepted by forest restoration practitioners. Title: Evaluating the Success of Forest Restoration Author: Adams, Josh Year: 2015 Forest restoration projects are occurring throughout the world. Restoration projects can vary greatly depending on the type of forest and the type of stressors that have caused ecosystem degradation and the need for restoration. Because of this variability, and because objective criteria for determining the success of restoration projects are lacking, it is difficult to evaluate the overall success of forest restoration projects. Using ecological standards developed for river restoration as a model, a similar set of standards was applied to forest restoration projects. The standards put forward can be used to evaluate the success of ecosystem restoration universally through the use of site-specific indicators of ecological success. This analysis found that many but not all of the criteria are being used to evaluate forest restoration success. Furthermore, the ecological health of the restored ecosystem is not always prioritized, as socioeconomic values are occasionally favored. Thus, it is important for a set of evaluation criteria primarily related to ecological health to be readily accepted by forest restoration practitioners. Close

• 7. [Article] Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest

  Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Close

• 8. [Article] Carbon Sequestration in Managed Temperate Coniferous Forests Under Climate Change

  Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Carbon Sequestration in Managed Temperate Coniferous Forests Under Climate Change Author: Dymond, Caren C., Beukema, Sarah, Nitschke, Craig R., Coates, K. David, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities. Title: Carbon Sequestration in Managed Temperate Coniferous Forests Under Climate Change Author: Dymond, Caren C., Beukema, Sarah, Nitschke, Craig R., Coates, K. David, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities. Close

• 9. [Article] Evolution of Technology in the Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis Program

  The US Forest Service (USFS), Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program is the nation’s forest census program that has been conducting inventories of private and public forested lands for over 80 years. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evolution of Technology in the Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis Program Author: Alobaidi, Sarah, Deshpande, Tejas, Nigg, Donavon, Ozdemir, Dilek, Smith, Mike, Wehner, Nicole Year: 2016 The US Forest Service (USFS), Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program is the nation’s forest census program that has been conducting inventories of private and public forested lands for over 80 years. This paper will discuss the history of the FIA program; how technology has changed, the way field crew’s conduct inventories, as well as look at what new technologies are available to the FIA program. The new endeavor into interior Alaska, approximately 112 million forested acres in size, is the last remaining forested area within the United States to be inventoried. In 2014, the US Forest Service FIA program conducted a pilot inventory in the Tanana Valley of Alaska. This paper looks at current ways the field teams conduct inventories, and how state-of-the-art remote sensing technologies can assist with data collection. Analysis of technologies in use resulted in a set of recommendations related to; 1) Earlier adoption of newer technologies, which in turn allows for earlier adoption of even more future technologies. 2) Tighter integrations at a project management level to ensure overlap is reduced where possible, and 3) Broader, more open relationships with scientific bodies at all levels of the organization resulting in more informed decision making with regards to technology adoption thus optimizing each field team’s data gathered from field plots. Title: Evolution of Technology in the Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis Program Author: Alobaidi, Sarah, Deshpande, Tejas, Nigg, Donavon, Ozdemir, Dilek, Smith, Mike, Wehner, Nicole Year: 2016 The US Forest Service (USFS), Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program is the nation’s forest census program that has been conducting inventories of private and public forested lands for over 80 years. This paper will discuss the history of the FIA program; how technology has changed, the way field crew’s conduct inventories, as well as look at what new technologies are available to the FIA program. The new endeavor into interior Alaska, approximately 112 million forested acres in size, is the last remaining forested area within the United States to be inventoried. In 2014, the US Forest Service FIA program conducted a pilot inventory in the Tanana Valley of Alaska. This paper looks at current ways the field teams conduct inventories, and how state-of-the-art remote sensing technologies can assist with data collection. Analysis of technologies in use resulted in a set of recommendations related to; 1) Earlier adoption of newer technologies, which in turn allows for earlier adoption of even more future technologies. 2) Tighter integrations at a project management level to ensure overlap is reduced where possible, and 3) Broader, more open relationships with scientific bodies at all levels of the organization resulting in more informed decision making with regards to technology adoption thus optimizing each field team’s data gathered from field plots. Close

• 10. [Article] Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

  Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John Year: 2014 Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Title: Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John Year: 2014 Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Close