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• 1. [Article] Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change

  Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua Year: 2014 Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to substantially affect mid-continental landscapes, this region is especially vulnerable to climate change. My research assessed the effects of climate change under business as usual (BAU) management as well as alternative management strategies. To do so, I simulated forest change in two landscapes (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan) under three climate change scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions), and four management scenarios (BAU, modified silviculture, expanded reserves, and climate suitable planting) with a spatially-explicit forest simulation model from year 2000 to year 2150. Specifically, I explored how climate change would affect relationships between tree species diversity and productivity (Chapter 2); how expanded reserves and modified silviculture may affect aboveground biomass (AGB) and species diversity (Chapter 3); how climate suitable planting may affect functional diversity, and AGB (Chapter 4); and how alternative management may affect the resistance and resilience of forests to multiple disturbances interacting with climate change (Chapter 5). Under the BAU management scenario, I found that current and low emissions climate scenarios did not affect the relationship between species diversity and productivity; however, under a high emissions climate scenario, a decline in simulated productivity was coupled with a stronger positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Under the high emissions climate scenario, overall productivity declined in both landscapes with specific species declines projected for boreal species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana). Under alternative management scenarios, I simulated a limited ability to increase tree species and functional diversity, AGB, and net primary productivity under climate change. The limits of management were especially apparent under the high emissions climate scenario. In a novel approach to measuring resilience, I plotted the recovery of both initial species composition and AGB to stochastic fire events for each simulation. This approach assessed both a general response (i.e. AGB) with a more specific response (i.e. species composition). My results suggest that climate change will reduce the resilience of northern Great Lake forest AGB and species composition and that management effects will be largely outweighed by the declines expected due to climate change. My results highlight the necessity to consider even more innovative and creative solutions under climate change (e.g., planting species from even further south than I simulated). Title: Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua Year: 2014 Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to substantially affect mid-continental landscapes, this region is especially vulnerable to climate change. My research assessed the effects of climate change under business as usual (BAU) management as well as alternative management strategies. To do so, I simulated forest change in two landscapes (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan) under three climate change scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions), and four management scenarios (BAU, modified silviculture, expanded reserves, and climate suitable planting) with a spatially-explicit forest simulation model from year 2000 to year 2150. Specifically, I explored how climate change would affect relationships between tree species diversity and productivity (Chapter 2); how expanded reserves and modified silviculture may affect aboveground biomass (AGB) and species diversity (Chapter 3); how climate suitable planting may affect functional diversity, and AGB (Chapter 4); and how alternative management may affect the resistance and resilience of forests to multiple disturbances interacting with climate change (Chapter 5). Under the BAU management scenario, I found that current and low emissions climate scenarios did not affect the relationship between species diversity and productivity; however, under a high emissions climate scenario, a decline in simulated productivity was coupled with a stronger positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Under the high emissions climate scenario, overall productivity declined in both landscapes with specific species declines projected for boreal species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana). Under alternative management scenarios, I simulated a limited ability to increase tree species and functional diversity, AGB, and net primary productivity under climate change. The limits of management were especially apparent under the high emissions climate scenario. In a novel approach to measuring resilience, I plotted the recovery of both initial species composition and AGB to stochastic fire events for each simulation. This approach assessed both a general response (i.e. AGB) with a more specific response (i.e. species composition). My results suggest that climate change will reduce the resilience of northern Great Lake forest AGB and species composition and that management effects will be largely outweighed by the declines expected due to climate change. My results highlight the necessity to consider even more innovative and creative solutions under climate change (e.g., planting species from even further south than I simulated). Close

• 2. [Article] Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity

  Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Close

• 3. [Article] The Biology of Eastern Kingbirds at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge: Survival, Reproduction, and Testosterone Secretion

  This dissertation presents the results of a study that I undertook to better understand the breeding biology of Eastern Kingbirds (hereafter, kingbirds) at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Biology of Eastern Kingbirds at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge: Survival, Reproduction, and Testosterone Secretion Author: Redmond, Lucas J. Year: 2015 This dissertation presents the results of a study that I undertook to better understand the breeding biology of Eastern Kingbirds (hereafter, kingbirds) at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon from 2003 to 2009. Kingbirds are long-distance migratory songbirds that breed across much of North America. This species is socially monogamous but, via frequent extra-pair copulations, is genetically polygamous. Kingbirds exhibit relatively high breeding site fidelity, often returning to the same tree to nest in subsequent years. Both members of a pair provide parental care, but there are often specific duties performed by both male and female kingbirds. For example, males typically perform much of the vigilant nest defense that this species is well known for and contribute, to an extent, to the feeding of nestlings. Females, on the other hand, are entirely responsible for incubating and brooding. Beginning in 2002, most adults within the population of kingbirds at Malheur had been banded with a unique combination of three colored plastic leg bands and an aluminum USFWS band. Also, as many nests were located in each year as possible, and any young that survived to fledging age were banded with a unique combination of leg bands. Considerable effort was then spent each year to locate as many banded individuals as possible, which allowed me to document adult and juvenile survival. Annual survival rates of adult male and female kingbirds in the population at Malheur did not differ and were relatively high at approximately 0.65. Juvenile survival rate was approximately 0.29, indicating that slightly less than one-third of nestlings survive the interval between fledging and their first potential breeding season. Resighting probability was high for both sexes, although higher for adult males (0.94) than for adult female (0.84). The latter finding is consistent with the higher site fidelity of males than of females. Resighting probabilities for juveniles were much lower at 0.68 and 0.40 for males and females, respectively. Again, this was expected because natal site fidelity is typically much lower than breeding site fidelity. Compared to most other reports, resighting probability and return rates of juvenile kingbirds was high, presumably because the riparian habitats where kingbirds breed at Malheur function as an ecological island surrounded by, for kingbirds, unsuitable high desert habitat. Thus, unless they disperse very long distances, the only option for juvenile kingbirds is to begin nesting on the refuge. The collection of blood samples from birds has become an increasingly common practice in ornithology. The data that can be gained from these samples allow a number of interesting questions to be asked such as understanding the genetic mating system of a species, patterns of hormone secretion, and discerning migratory pathways via stable isotope analysis. The volume of blood collected is usually small and was assumed to cause no long-term negative effects on sampled individuals. However, few studies have rigorously examined the effect of blood sampling on survival. I used a multistate mark-recapture analysis to assess the effect blood sampling on annual survival of kingbirds by combining the annual survival data described above with whether or not individuals were subjected to blood sample collection. The results of this analysis indicated that blood sampling had no effect on annual survival rates of kingbirds. Whether or not this is the case for other species remains to be seen. However, my results support the assumption that when done correctly, blood sampling has little to no long-term negative effects on birds. Comparative analyses of many bird species show that testosterone secretion exhibits fairly predictable patterns among breeding birds of different mating systems. Monogamous species reach a peak during mate attraction and the period of female fertility which is then followed by a sharp decline when young are in the nest. By contrast, males of polygynous species tend to maintain higher levels of testosterone throughout the breeding season to, presumably, maximize opportunities for acquiring additional mates. Kingbirds are socially monogamous but cryptically polygamous. However, because of high rates of extra-pair paternity, variation in reproductive success among males is much higher than what is expected for a monogamous species, and, instead, is similar to what has been reported for polygynous species. Therefore from 2005 to 2009 I measured testosterone concentrations from the blood samples collected from male kingbirds to determine the breeding season profile of testosterone secretion in kingbirds and to understand the factors that influence testosterone variation among individuals. Contrary to expected for a monogamous species, the testosterone profile of kingbirds did not exhibit the brief peak in testosterone followed by a precipitous decline. Testosterone peaked early in the season, but declined very slowly as the nest cycle progressed. I attributed this gradual decline in testosterone to the cryptically polygynous nature of the kingbird extra-pair mating system. I also found substantial variation in testosterone concentration among male kingbirds and was able to identify several factors contributing to this variation. As expected, testosterone declined as the breeding season progressed (independent of stage in nest cycle) and nest density increased, while increases in testosterone were correlated with the number of fertile females within the population. This suggests that male kingbirds were capable of modulating testosterone concentrations to both cope with an increase in conspecific density, but also to ready themselves for times when extra-pair copulations were more likely. Title: The Biology of Eastern Kingbirds at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge: Survival, Reproduction, and Testosterone Secretion Author: Redmond, Lucas J. Year: 2015 This dissertation presents the results of a study that I undertook to better understand the breeding biology of Eastern Kingbirds (hereafter, kingbirds) at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon from 2003 to 2009. Kingbirds are long-distance migratory songbirds that breed across much of North America. This species is socially monogamous but, via frequent extra-pair copulations, is genetically polygamous. Kingbirds exhibit relatively high breeding site fidelity, often returning to the same tree to nest in subsequent years. Both members of a pair provide parental care, but there are often specific duties performed by both male and female kingbirds. For example, males typically perform much of the vigilant nest defense that this species is well known for and contribute, to an extent, to the feeding of nestlings. Females, on the other hand, are entirely responsible for incubating and brooding. Beginning in 2002, most adults within the population of kingbirds at Malheur had been banded with a unique combination of three colored plastic leg bands and an aluminum USFWS band. Also, as many nests were located in each year as possible, and any young that survived to fledging age were banded with a unique combination of leg bands. Considerable effort was then spent each year to locate as many banded individuals as possible, which allowed me to document adult and juvenile survival. Annual survival rates of adult male and female kingbirds in the population at Malheur did not differ and were relatively high at approximately 0.65. Juvenile survival rate was approximately 0.29, indicating that slightly less than one-third of nestlings survive the interval between fledging and their first potential breeding season. Resighting probability was high for both sexes, although higher for adult males (0.94) than for adult female (0.84). The latter finding is consistent with the higher site fidelity of males than of females. Resighting probabilities for juveniles were much lower at 0.68 and 0.40 for males and females, respectively. Again, this was expected because natal site fidelity is typically much lower than breeding site fidelity. Compared to most other reports, resighting probability and return rates of juvenile kingbirds was high, presumably because the riparian habitats where kingbirds breed at Malheur function as an ecological island surrounded by, for kingbirds, unsuitable high desert habitat. Thus, unless they disperse very long distances, the only option for juvenile kingbirds is to begin nesting on the refuge. The collection of blood samples from birds has become an increasingly common practice in ornithology. The data that can be gained from these samples allow a number of interesting questions to be asked such as understanding the genetic mating system of a species, patterns of hormone secretion, and discerning migratory pathways via stable isotope analysis. The volume of blood collected is usually small and was assumed to cause no long-term negative effects on sampled individuals. However, few studies have rigorously examined the effect of blood sampling on survival. I used a multistate mark-recapture analysis to assess the effect blood sampling on annual survival of kingbirds by combining the annual survival data described above with whether or not individuals were subjected to blood sample collection. The results of this analysis indicated that blood sampling had no effect on annual survival rates of kingbirds. Whether or not this is the case for other species remains to be seen. However, my results support the assumption that when done correctly, blood sampling has little to no long-term negative effects on birds. Comparative analyses of many bird species show that testosterone secretion exhibits fairly predictable patterns among breeding birds of different mating systems. Monogamous species reach a peak during mate attraction and the period of female fertility which is then followed by a sharp decline when young are in the nest. By contrast, males of polygynous species tend to maintain higher levels of testosterone throughout the breeding season to, presumably, maximize opportunities for acquiring additional mates. Kingbirds are socially monogamous but cryptically polygamous. However, because of high rates of extra-pair paternity, variation in reproductive success among males is much higher than what is expected for a monogamous species, and, instead, is similar to what has been reported for polygynous species. Therefore from 2005 to 2009 I measured testosterone concentrations from the blood samples collected from male kingbirds to determine the breeding season profile of testosterone secretion in kingbirds and to understand the factors that influence testosterone variation among individuals. Contrary to expected for a monogamous species, the testosterone profile of kingbirds did not exhibit the brief peak in testosterone followed by a precipitous decline. Testosterone peaked early in the season, but declined very slowly as the nest cycle progressed. I attributed this gradual decline in testosterone to the cryptically polygynous nature of the kingbird extra-pair mating system. I also found substantial variation in testosterone concentration among male kingbirds and was able to identify several factors contributing to this variation. As expected, testosterone declined as the breeding season progressed (independent of stage in nest cycle) and nest density increased, while increases in testosterone were correlated with the number of fertile females within the population. This suggests that male kingbirds were capable of modulating testosterone concentrations to both cope with an increase in conspecific density, but also to ready themselves for times when extra-pair copulations were more likely. Close

• 4. [Article] Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning

  Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning Author: Halsey, Shiloh Michael, Zielinski, William J., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus). Objectives To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable for reintroduction. Methods Using camera survey data, we modeled the association between bobcat presence and environmental features using a classification tree. We applied this model to a spatial analysis of fisher habitat and identified reintroduction areas in the southern Washington Cascade Range. Results The classification tree predicted bobcat detection based on elevation and mean tree diameter. The final model identified fisher reintroduction locations primarily in or near existing wilderness areas. Fisher habitat areas identified considering both habitat and predation risk differed from those identified without considering predation. Conclusion Our spatial approach is unique among fisher reintroduction plans by accounting for both resource requirements and risk of predation. It can be used as a template for future reintroduction efforts in other regions and for other species. Using similar models to refine population management and reintroduction should improve the probability of successful population establishment and stability. Title: Modeling Predator Habitat to Enhance Reintroduction Planning Author: Halsey, Shiloh Michael, Zielinski, William J., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus). Objectives To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable for reintroduction. Methods Using camera survey data, we modeled the association between bobcat presence and environmental features using a classification tree. We applied this model to a spatial analysis of fisher habitat and identified reintroduction areas in the southern Washington Cascade Range. Results The classification tree predicted bobcat detection based on elevation and mean tree diameter. The final model identified fisher reintroduction locations primarily in or near existing wilderness areas. Fisher habitat areas identified considering both habitat and predation risk differed from those identified without considering predation. Conclusion Our spatial approach is unique among fisher reintroduction plans by accounting for both resource requirements and risk of predation. It can be used as a template for future reintroduction efforts in other regions and for other species. Using similar models to refine population management and reintroduction should improve the probability of successful population establishment and stability. Close

• 5. [Article] Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity

  Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Close

• 6. [Article] Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA)

  Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA) Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts. Objectives: We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests. Methods: We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas. Results: Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience. Conclusions: Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems. Title: Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA) Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts. Objectives: We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests. Methods: We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas. Results: Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience. Conclusions: Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems. Close

• 7. [Article] Demography of a Ground Nesting Bird in an Urban System: Are Populations Self-Sustaining?

  Urbanization poses threats to earth’s biota, and retention of remnant native habitat in protected areas within expanding urban boundaries may help alleviate threats to wildlife. However, it is unclear ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Demography of a Ground Nesting Bird in an Urban System: Are Populations Self-Sustaining? Author: Bartos Smith, Sarah, McKay, Jenny E., Richardson, Jennifer K., Shipley, Amy A., Murphy, Michael T. Year: 2016 Urbanization poses threats to earth’s biota, and retention of remnant native habitat in protected areas within expanding urban boundaries may help alleviate threats to wildlife. However, it is unclear for nearly all nonsynanthropic (i.e., not benefiting from an association with humans) species whether vital rates in urban habitats can sustain populations or if populations persist only through immigration from outside the urban boundary. We conducted a three-year study of spotted towhees (Aves: Pipilo maculatus) breeding in four undeveloped parks in Portland, OR, USA, to measure park-specific seasonal reproductive output (F) and annual adult survival (SA). We developed a stochastic model that combined F and SA with an estimate of first-year survival to measure population growth rate (λ) in all parks assumed to be closed to immigration. F differed among parks but SA did not. Relatively high F was possible because many pairs raised >1 brood/season. When combined with empirical estimates of survival through the 30-day period of post-fledging parental care (SD = 0.645), only 2 of 4 parks were self-sustaining (i.e., λ > 1.0). However, SD reflected substantial loss of fledglings to domestic cats (Felis catus). Assuming no loss to cats and either partial compensatory or additive mortality of fledglings substantially improved prospects of population persistence for declining (sink) populations. Moreover, allowing low levels of immigration to sinks reversed population declines in most parks even when vital rates were insufficient to maintain populations. Our results suggest that nonsynanthropic bird species can persist in urban landscapes, but also that offspring mortality in the post-fledging period may be a critical determinant of population viability. Title: Demography of a Ground Nesting Bird in an Urban System: Are Populations Self-Sustaining? Author: Bartos Smith, Sarah, McKay, Jenny E., Richardson, Jennifer K., Shipley, Amy A., Murphy, Michael T. Year: 2016 Urbanization poses threats to earth’s biota, and retention of remnant native habitat in protected areas within expanding urban boundaries may help alleviate threats to wildlife. However, it is unclear for nearly all nonsynanthropic (i.e., not benefiting from an association with humans) species whether vital rates in urban habitats can sustain populations or if populations persist only through immigration from outside the urban boundary. We conducted a three-year study of spotted towhees (Aves: Pipilo maculatus) breeding in four undeveloped parks in Portland, OR, USA, to measure park-specific seasonal reproductive output (F) and annual adult survival (SA). We developed a stochastic model that combined F and SA with an estimate of first-year survival to measure population growth rate (λ) in all parks assumed to be closed to immigration. F differed among parks but SA did not. Relatively high F was possible because many pairs raised >1 brood/season. When combined with empirical estimates of survival through the 30-day period of post-fledging parental care (SD = 0.645), only 2 of 4 parks were self-sustaining (i.e., λ > 1.0). However, SD reflected substantial loss of fledglings to domestic cats (Felis catus). Assuming no loss to cats and either partial compensatory or additive mortality of fledglings substantially improved prospects of population persistence for declining (sink) populations. Moreover, allowing low levels of immigration to sinks reversed population declines in most parks even when vital rates were insufficient to maintain populations. Our results suggest that nonsynanthropic bird species can persist in urban landscapes, but also that offspring mortality in the post-fledging period may be a critical determinant of population viability. Close

• 8. [Article] Stranding Mortality Patterns in California Sea Lions and Steller Sea Lions in Oregon and Southern Washington, 2006 to 2014

  As changing ocean conditions lead to declining fish stocks and movement of forage fish, sea lions on the Oregon coast are subject to the pressures of declining prey availability and increasing conflicts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Stranding Mortality Patterns in California Sea Lions and Steller Sea Lions in Oregon and Southern Washington, 2006 to 2014 Author: Lee, Kessina Year: 2016 As changing ocean conditions lead to declining fish stocks and movement of forage fish, sea lions on the Oregon coast are subject to the pressures of declining prey availability and increasing conflicts with commercial and recreational fisheries. An analysis of strandings of California sea lions, Zalophus californianus, and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus, from 2006 to 2014, included cause of death, changing ocean conditions, and anthropogenic activity. Causes of death included disease, injury, and human interaction, such as gunshot wounds, fisheries net entanglements and boat strikes. Oregon and Washington strandings of California sea lions are primarily adult and subadult males that migrate north from California rookeries, while Steller sea lions are year-round residents and strandings are comprised of males and females of all ages. While the California sea lion population is currently at or near carrying capacity, the Eastern Pacific population of Steller sea lions was designated as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act until October 2013. Understanding impacts to these two pinniped species is vital to implementing effective management and conservation policies. Oregon and southern Washington strandings of California sea lions and Steller sea lions from 2006 to 2014 were analyzed spatially using the geographic information system (GIS), and temporally to identify possible correlations with prey availability and human interaction. Strandings were found to follow seasonal patterns from year to year: Steller sea lion strandings were highest from May to July, California sea lions peaked in September, October, and November. There was a correlation between significantly high numbers of strandings and the three largest commercial fisheries in Oregon: Chinook salmon, Coho salmon, and Dungeness crab. This analysis provides a format for continuing to monitor primary ecological and anthropogenic drivers of pinniped mortality in Oregon and southern Washington. Title: Stranding Mortality Patterns in California Sea Lions and Steller Sea Lions in Oregon and Southern Washington, 2006 to 2014 Author: Lee, Kessina Year: 2016 As changing ocean conditions lead to declining fish stocks and movement of forage fish, sea lions on the Oregon coast are subject to the pressures of declining prey availability and increasing conflicts with commercial and recreational fisheries. An analysis of strandings of California sea lions, Zalophus californianus, and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus, from 2006 to 2014, included cause of death, changing ocean conditions, and anthropogenic activity. Causes of death included disease, injury, and human interaction, such as gunshot wounds, fisheries net entanglements and boat strikes. Oregon and Washington strandings of California sea lions are primarily adult and subadult males that migrate north from California rookeries, while Steller sea lions are year-round residents and strandings are comprised of males and females of all ages. While the California sea lion population is currently at or near carrying capacity, the Eastern Pacific population of Steller sea lions was designated as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act until October 2013. Understanding impacts to these two pinniped species is vital to implementing effective management and conservation policies. Oregon and southern Washington strandings of California sea lions and Steller sea lions from 2006 to 2014 were analyzed spatially using the geographic information system (GIS), and temporally to identify possible correlations with prey availability and human interaction. Strandings were found to follow seasonal patterns from year to year: Steller sea lion strandings were highest from May to July, California sea lions peaked in September, October, and November. There was a correlation between significantly high numbers of strandings and the three largest commercial fisheries in Oregon: Chinook salmon, Coho salmon, and Dungeness crab. This analysis provides a format for continuing to monitor primary ecological and anthropogenic drivers of pinniped mortality in Oregon and southern Washington. Close

• 9. [Article] Increased Habitat Connectivity Homogenizes Freshwater Communities: Historical and Landscape Perspectives

  Increases in habitat connectivity can have consequences for taxonomic, functional, and genetic diversity of communities. Previously isolated aquatic habitats were connected with canals and pipelines in ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Increased Habitat Connectivity Homogenizes Freshwater Communities: Historical and Landscape Perspectives Author: Strecker, Angela L., Brittain, Jeffrey Thomas Year: 2017 Increases in habitat connectivity can have consequences for taxonomic, functional, and genetic diversity of communities. Previously isolated aquatic habitats were connected with canals and pipelines in the largest water development project in the US history, the Columbia Basin Project (CBP; eastern Washington, USA), which also altered environmental conditions; however, the ecological consequences are largely unknown. Using a historical dataset, we examined long-term patterns in zooplankton communities, water chemistry and clarity, testing the hypothesis that increased connectivity will result in taxonomic homogenization. Further, we tested contemporary drivers of communities using a comprehensive set of environmental and landscape variables. Waterbodies were sampled for zooplankton community composition as well as physical and chemical variables inside and outside the CBP using methods consistent with historical studies. We found significant declines in salinity inside the CBP, whereas changes in water clarity were prevalent across all waterbodies. Increased connectivity via canals homogenized zooplankton communities over time, as well as increasing regional richness. Other long-term changes in zooplankton communities may be related to climate change, invasive species, and land-use changes. Synthesis and applications. Though canals may offer species spatial refugia, homogenization may decrease resilience to environmental stressors. These new hybrid aquatic landscapes, or hydroscapes, should be considered carefully in future water development, including specific plans for monitoring of species and environmental conditions, as well as mitigation of undesirable conditions and/or non-native species. Title: Increased Habitat Connectivity Homogenizes Freshwater Communities: Historical and Landscape Perspectives Author: Strecker, Angela L., Brittain, Jeffrey Thomas Year: 2017 Increases in habitat connectivity can have consequences for taxonomic, functional, and genetic diversity of communities. Previously isolated aquatic habitats were connected with canals and pipelines in the largest water development project in the US history, the Columbia Basin Project (CBP; eastern Washington, USA), which also altered environmental conditions; however, the ecological consequences are largely unknown. Using a historical dataset, we examined long-term patterns in zooplankton communities, water chemistry and clarity, testing the hypothesis that increased connectivity will result in taxonomic homogenization. Further, we tested contemporary drivers of communities using a comprehensive set of environmental and landscape variables. Waterbodies were sampled for zooplankton community composition as well as physical and chemical variables inside and outside the CBP using methods consistent with historical studies. We found significant declines in salinity inside the CBP, whereas changes in water clarity were prevalent across all waterbodies. Increased connectivity via canals homogenized zooplankton communities over time, as well as increasing regional richness. Other long-term changes in zooplankton communities may be related to climate change, invasive species, and land-use changes. Synthesis and applications. Though canals may offer species spatial refugia, homogenization may decrease resilience to environmental stressors. These new hybrid aquatic landscapes, or hydroscapes, should be considered carefully in future water development, including specific plans for monitoring of species and environmental conditions, as well as mitigation of undesirable conditions and/or non-native species. Close

• 10. [Article] A Behavior-Based Framework for Assessing Barrier Effects to Wildlife from Vehicle Traffic Volume

  Roads, while central to the function of human society, create barriers to animal movement through collisions and habitat fragmentation. Barriers to animal movement affect the evolution and trajectory of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Behavior-Based Framework for Assessing Barrier Effects to Wildlife from Vehicle Traffic Volume Author: Jacobson, Sandra L., Bliss-Ketchum, Leslie L., de Rivera, Catherine E., Smith, Winston P. Year: 2016 Roads, while central to the function of human society, create barriers to animal movement through collisions and habitat fragmentation. Barriers to animal movement affect the evolution and trajectory of populations. Investigators have attempted to use traffic volume, the number of vehicles passing a point on a road segment, to predict effects to wildlife populations approximately linearly and along taxonomic lines; however, taxonomic groupings cannot provide sound predictions because closely related species often respond differently. We assess the role of wildlife behavioral responses to traffic volume as a tool to predict barrier effects from vehicle-caused mortality and avoidance, to provide an early warning system that recognizes traffic volume as a trigger for mitigation, and to better interpret roadkill data. We propose four categories of behavioral response based on the perceived danger to traffic: Nonresponders, Pausers, Speeders, and Avoiders. Nonresponders attempt to cross highways regardless of traffic volume. Pausers stop in the face of danger so have a low probability of successful crossing when traffic volume increases. Hence, highway barrier effects are primarily due to mortality for Nonresponders and Pausers at high traffic volumes. Speeders run away from danger but are unable to do so successfully as traffic volume increases. At moderate to high volume, Speeders are repelled by traffic danger. Avoiders face lower mortality than other categories because they begin to avoid traffic at relatively low traffic volumes. Hence, avoidance causes barrier effects more than mortality for Speeders and Avoiders even at relatively moderate traffic volumes. By considering a species’ risk-avoidance response to traffic, managers can make more appropriate and timely decisions to mitigate effects before populations decline or become locally extinct. Title: A Behavior-Based Framework for Assessing Barrier Effects to Wildlife from Vehicle Traffic Volume Author: Jacobson, Sandra L., Bliss-Ketchum, Leslie L., de Rivera, Catherine E., Smith, Winston P. Year: 2016 Roads, while central to the function of human society, create barriers to animal movement through collisions and habitat fragmentation. Barriers to animal movement affect the evolution and trajectory of populations. Investigators have attempted to use traffic volume, the number of vehicles passing a point on a road segment, to predict effects to wildlife populations approximately linearly and along taxonomic lines; however, taxonomic groupings cannot provide sound predictions because closely related species often respond differently. We assess the role of wildlife behavioral responses to traffic volume as a tool to predict barrier effects from vehicle-caused mortality and avoidance, to provide an early warning system that recognizes traffic volume as a trigger for mitigation, and to better interpret roadkill data. We propose four categories of behavioral response based on the perceived danger to traffic: Nonresponders, Pausers, Speeders, and Avoiders. Nonresponders attempt to cross highways regardless of traffic volume. Pausers stop in the face of danger so have a low probability of successful crossing when traffic volume increases. Hence, highway barrier effects are primarily due to mortality for Nonresponders and Pausers at high traffic volumes. Speeders run away from danger but are unable to do so successfully as traffic volume increases. At moderate to high volume, Speeders are repelled by traffic danger. Avoiders face lower mortality than other categories because they begin to avoid traffic at relatively low traffic volumes. Hence, avoidance causes barrier effects more than mortality for Speeders and Avoiders even at relatively moderate traffic volumes. By considering a species’ risk-avoidance response to traffic, managers can make more appropriate and timely decisions to mitigate effects before populations decline or become locally extinct. Close