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• 1. [Article] Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on Surrounding Residential Property Values

  As bus rapid transit (BRT) grows in popularity in the United States, a better understanding of the mode’s impacts on land uses and property values is needed. Economic theory suggests, and literature has ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on Surrounding Residential Property Values Author: Perk, Victoria, Catalá, Martin, Mantius, Maximillian, Corcoran, Katrina Year: 2017 As bus rapid transit (BRT) grows in popularity in the United States, a better understanding of the mode’s impacts on land uses and property values is needed. Economic theory suggests, and literature has shown, that people are willing to pay higher housing costs to lower their costs of transportation to areas of economic activity. Does high-quality BRT service reliably provide such access and, thereby, increase residential property values? The hypothesis is that property values are higher closer to BRT stations, reflecting a premium for the access provided by the BRT service to various goods, services, employment, education, and recreation. There has been some work on this topic outside of the U.S.; however, due to various cultural, social, and institutional differences, those experiences may not be applicable to U.S. property values. The literature includes, to date, very little work on U.S. BRT systems’ impacts on property values using robust econometric techniques and/or spatial modeling. Further, because every BRT system is different, it is necessary to analyze additional case studies to provide a more robust understanding of how modern U.S. experiences with BRT services may affect surrounding property values. This research contributes to the relatively small body of literature on property value impacts of BRT in the U.S. by conducting a case study on Lane Transit District’s EmX BRT service (Eugene, Oregon) using econometric modeling techniques to estimate changes in property values associated with the BRT. The analysis is based on hedonic price regression analysis, where sale prices are modeled using several property characteristics that contribute to the market or sale price. The findings of this research indicate that the EmX BRT system does positively impact surrounding single-family home sale prices. Results are statistically significant yet, as expected, relatively small in magnitude. An interesting finding is that the impact of the EmX stations on property values increased in each of the three periods examined in this study. For 2005 single-family home sales, the price increased $823 on average for every 100 meters closer to a station. In 2010, the marginal impact increased to an average of $1,056 for every 100 meters closer to a station. In 2016, every 100 meters closer to a station adds an average of $1,128 to a home’s sale price. These results provide further insight into how BRT services can enhance the livability and economic development in a community, and provide policymakers and the transit industry throughout the U.S. with the best information possible to make informed transit investment decisions in their communities. Title: Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on Surrounding Residential Property Values Author: Perk, Victoria, Catalá, Martin, Mantius, Maximillian, Corcoran, Katrina Year: 2017 As bus rapid transit (BRT) grows in popularity in the United States, a better understanding of the mode’s impacts on land uses and property values is needed. Economic theory suggests, and literature has shown, that people are willing to pay higher housing costs to lower their costs of transportation to areas of economic activity. Does high-quality BRT service reliably provide such access and, thereby, increase residential property values? The hypothesis is that property values are higher closer to BRT stations, reflecting a premium for the access provided by the BRT service to various goods, services, employment, education, and recreation. There has been some work on this topic outside of the U.S.; however, due to various cultural, social, and institutional differences, those experiences may not be applicable to U.S. property values. The literature includes, to date, very little work on U.S. BRT systems’ impacts on property values using robust econometric techniques and/or spatial modeling. Further, because every BRT system is different, it is necessary to analyze additional case studies to provide a more robust understanding of how modern U.S. experiences with BRT services may affect surrounding property values. This research contributes to the relatively small body of literature on property value impacts of BRT in the U.S. by conducting a case study on Lane Transit District’s EmX BRT service (Eugene, Oregon) using econometric modeling techniques to estimate changes in property values associated with the BRT. The analysis is based on hedonic price regression analysis, where sale prices are modeled using several property characteristics that contribute to the market or sale price. The findings of this research indicate that the EmX BRT system does positively impact surrounding single-family home sale prices. Results are statistically significant yet, as expected, relatively small in magnitude. An interesting finding is that the impact of the EmX stations on property values increased in each of the three periods examined in this study. For 2005 single-family home sales, the price increased $823 on average for every 100 meters closer to a station. In 2010, the marginal impact increased to an average of $1,056 for every 100 meters closer to a station. In 2016, every 100 meters closer to a station adds an average of $1,128 to a home’s sale price. These results provide further insight into how BRT services can enhance the livability and economic development in a community, and provide policymakers and the transit industry throughout the U.S. with the best information possible to make informed transit investment decisions in their communities. Close

• 2. [Article] Impact of Bike Facilities on Residential Property Prices

  As many cities are investing in street improvement or transportation infrastructure upgrade projects to provide better bike access or more complete bike networks, the economic value of bike infrastructure ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impact of Bike Facilities on Residential Property Prices Author: Shi, Wei Year: 2017 As many cities are investing in street improvement or transportation infrastructure upgrade projects to provide better bike access or more complete bike networks, the economic value of bike infrastructure and bike facilities remains an area where many practitioners, planners and policy makers are seeking more conclusive evidence. Using residential property values as indicators of consumer preferences for bicycle infrastructure, this study focuses on advanced bike facilities which represent higher levels of bike priority or bike infrastructure investments that have been shown to be more desirable to a larger portion of the population. Estimating ordinary least squares hedonic pricing models and spatial autoregressive hedonic models separately for single and multi-family properties, we find that proximity to advanced bike facilities (measured by distance) has significant and positive effects on all residential property values, highlighting household preferences for high quality bike infrastructure. Furthermore, we also show that the extensiveness of the bike network (measured by density) is a positive and statistically significant contributor to the property prices for all residential property types, even after controlling for proximity to bike facilities and other property, neighborhood and transaction characteristics. Finally, estimated coefficients are applied to assess property value impacts of a proposed Portland “Green Loop” signature bike infrastructure concept, illustrating the importance of considering both accessibility and extensiveness of bike facility networks. Title: Impact of Bike Facilities on Residential Property Prices Author: Shi, Wei Year: 2017 As many cities are investing in street improvement or transportation infrastructure upgrade projects to provide better bike access or more complete bike networks, the economic value of bike infrastructure and bike facilities remains an area where many practitioners, planners and policy makers are seeking more conclusive evidence. Using residential property values as indicators of consumer preferences for bicycle infrastructure, this study focuses on advanced bike facilities which represent higher levels of bike priority or bike infrastructure investments that have been shown to be more desirable to a larger portion of the population. Estimating ordinary least squares hedonic pricing models and spatial autoregressive hedonic models separately for single and multi-family properties, we find that proximity to advanced bike facilities (measured by distance) has significant and positive effects on all residential property values, highlighting household preferences for high quality bike infrastructure. Furthermore, we also show that the extensiveness of the bike network (measured by density) is a positive and statistically significant contributor to the property prices for all residential property types, even after controlling for proximity to bike facilities and other property, neighborhood and transaction characteristics. Finally, estimated coefficients are applied to assess property value impacts of a proposed Portland “Green Loop” signature bike infrastructure concept, illustrating the importance of considering both accessibility and extensiveness of bike facility networks. Close

• 3. [Article] Webinar: Economic Impacts from Bicycle and Pedestrian Street Improvements

  As many cities are investing in street improvements to provide better biking and walking experiences, the economic value and impacts of these active transportation facilities remain areas where many practitioners, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Webinar: Economic Impacts from Bicycle and Pedestrian Street Improvements Author: Liu, Jenny H. Year: 2017 As many cities are investing in street improvements to provide better biking and walking experiences, the economic value and impacts of these active transportation facilities remain areas where many practitioners, planners and policy makers are seeking more conclusive evidence. With various modes competing for scarce resources, planners and transportation agencies often struggle with how to justify infrastructure investments for non-motorized modes, particularly when driving is still the predominant mode of transportation in most cities. In this project we assess property value impacts of Portland’s “Green Loop” signature bike infrastructure concept, illustrating the importance of considering both accessibility and extensiveness of bike facility networks. The Green Loop is a proposed 6-mile linear open space running through the heart of Portland, connecting existing and new open spaces, parks, gathering areas, and walking and biking pathways. As envisioned, the Green Loop concept requires significant infrastructure investments, and would result in both short-term and long-term impacts on transportation (for all travel modes), economic development and the environment. In collaboration with the Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability (BPS), the Portland State University Institute for Sustainable Solutions (ISS), and in partnership with PeopleForBikes and the Summit Foundation, the goal of this research is to characterize, quantify and analyze these costs, benefits and impacts, particularly focusing on case studies of similar infrastructure investments in active transportation. In this webinar, we will further focus on the residential property value impacts associated with advanced bike facilities. We find that proximity to advanced bike facilities has significant and positive effects on all property values, highlighting household preferences for high quality bike infrastructure. The lessons and research gaps identified in this work led to the development of two ongoing NITC-funded studies: "Understanding Economic and Business Impacts of Street Improvements for Bicycle and Pedestrian Mobility - A Multi-City Multi-Approach Exploration" and "Understanding the economic impacts of urban greenway infrastructure." We will share some updates on these ongoing projects as well. Key learning outcomes include: A framework for understanding the economic results of bicycle and pedestrian investments, with data to show: Evidence of impacts on residential property values Evidence of impacts on on business and retail activity Insight into potential short-term and long-term impacts of the Portland Green Loop A method for estimating economic impacts of similar proposed active transportation projects Title: Webinar: Economic Impacts from Bicycle and Pedestrian Street Improvements Author: Liu, Jenny H. Year: 2017 As many cities are investing in street improvements to provide better biking and walking experiences, the economic value and impacts of these active transportation facilities remain areas where many practitioners, planners and policy makers are seeking more conclusive evidence. With various modes competing for scarce resources, planners and transportation agencies often struggle with how to justify infrastructure investments for non-motorized modes, particularly when driving is still the predominant mode of transportation in most cities. In this project we assess property value impacts of Portland’s “Green Loop” signature bike infrastructure concept, illustrating the importance of considering both accessibility and extensiveness of bike facility networks. The Green Loop is a proposed 6-mile linear open space running through the heart of Portland, connecting existing and new open spaces, parks, gathering areas, and walking and biking pathways. As envisioned, the Green Loop concept requires significant infrastructure investments, and would result in both short-term and long-term impacts on transportation (for all travel modes), economic development and the environment. In collaboration with the Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability (BPS), the Portland State University Institute for Sustainable Solutions (ISS), and in partnership with PeopleForBikes and the Summit Foundation, the goal of this research is to characterize, quantify and analyze these costs, benefits and impacts, particularly focusing on case studies of similar infrastructure investments in active transportation. In this webinar, we will further focus on the residential property value impacts associated with advanced bike facilities. We find that proximity to advanced bike facilities has significant and positive effects on all property values, highlighting household preferences for high quality bike infrastructure. The lessons and research gaps identified in this work led to the development of two ongoing NITC-funded studies: "Understanding Economic and Business Impacts of Street Improvements for Bicycle and Pedestrian Mobility - A Multi-City Multi-Approach Exploration" and "Understanding the economic impacts of urban greenway infrastructure." We will share some updates on these ongoing projects as well. Key learning outcomes include: A framework for understanding the economic results of bicycle and pedestrian investments, with data to show: Evidence of impacts on residential property values Evidence of impacts on on business and retail activity Insight into potential short-term and long-term impacts of the Portland Green Loop A method for estimating economic impacts of similar proposed active transportation projects Close

• 4. [Article] On Both Sides of the Tracks: Light Rail and Gentrification in Portland, Oregon

  This study draws on census data and geographic information systems (GIS) to investigate the relationship between light rail transit (LRT) infrastructure development and gentrification in Portland, Oregon. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: On Both Sides of the Tracks: Light Rail and Gentrification in Portland, Oregon Author: Rochester, Nathan Eric Year: 2016 This study draws on census data and geographic information systems (GIS) to investigate the relationship between light rail transit (LRT) infrastructure development and gentrification in Portland, Oregon. While recent research using comprehensive measures of neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) supports a potentially causal link between transit development and gentrification, research into the effects of transit on property values alone tends to dominate the discourse. This study therefore seeks to build on previous research to develop an index measure of neighborhood SES and SES change based on measures of education, occupation, and income, using census data from 1980-2010. This multifaceted measure of neighborhood SES is analyzed in relation to LRT access using correlation, OLS regression, and GIS hot spot and choropleth mapping. Findings: Throughout the study period, low SES neighborhoods largely disappeared from the City of Portland, while low-income households were gradually priced out. Simultaneously, the easternmost suburb of Gresham became more highly concentrated in low SES neighborhoods. No definitive relationship between LRT and SES is found along the Eastside Blue or Westside Blue Lines, but strong evidence is found supporting a positive effect of Yellow Line MAX development on the rapid gentrification of North Portland from 2000-2010. Regressions run on neighborhoods along the Yellow Line indicate that SES change was greatest for those that began the decade with large Black populations, low rents, and close proximity to stations. Findings are discussed through the theoretical framework of the urban growth machine, which suggests the differential relationship between LRT and neighborhood SES relates to the distinct values of different parts of the region for the pursuit of general growth goals. Title: On Both Sides of the Tracks: Light Rail and Gentrification in Portland, Oregon Author: Rochester, Nathan Eric Year: 2016 This study draws on census data and geographic information systems (GIS) to investigate the relationship between light rail transit (LRT) infrastructure development and gentrification in Portland, Oregon. While recent research using comprehensive measures of neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) supports a potentially causal link between transit development and gentrification, research into the effects of transit on property values alone tends to dominate the discourse. This study therefore seeks to build on previous research to develop an index measure of neighborhood SES and SES change based on measures of education, occupation, and income, using census data from 1980-2010. This multifaceted measure of neighborhood SES is analyzed in relation to LRT access using correlation, OLS regression, and GIS hot spot and choropleth mapping. Findings: Throughout the study period, low SES neighborhoods largely disappeared from the City of Portland, while low-income households were gradually priced out. Simultaneously, the easternmost suburb of Gresham became more highly concentrated in low SES neighborhoods. No definitive relationship between LRT and SES is found along the Eastside Blue or Westside Blue Lines, but strong evidence is found supporting a positive effect of Yellow Line MAX development on the rapid gentrification of North Portland from 2000-2010. Regressions run on neighborhoods along the Yellow Line indicate that SES change was greatest for those that began the decade with large Black populations, low rents, and close proximity to stations. Findings are discussed through the theoretical framework of the urban growth machine, which suggests the differential relationship between LRT and neighborhood SES relates to the distinct values of different parts of the region for the pursuit of general growth goals. Close

• 5. [Article] The Kazaks of Istanbul: A Case of Social Cohesion, Economic Breakdown and the Search for a Moral Economy

  This research is focused on understanding the ways in which the community orientation of the Kazak ethnic community in Istanbul, Turkey have contributed to their economic success which in turn encourages ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Kazaks of Istanbul: A Case of Social Cohesion, Economic Breakdown and the Search for a Moral Economy Author: Auger, Daniel Marc Year: 2016 This research is focused on understanding the ways in which the community orientation of the Kazak ethnic community in Istanbul, Turkey have contributed to their economic success which in turn encourages strong community, and the nature of their community-based support networks for providing material and cultural support. It examines the role of social capital and cohesion in maintaining the community with its positive implications for the continued building of wealth or sourcing of funding on a community level. The theoretical concepts relevant to this project are based on the ideas that the shared values of a community are a positive force that allow communities to achieve common goals and is particularly important in the context of an economy that favors cheap labor and a highly mobile workforce, both factors that negatively affect the asset building and place-based rootedness that communities require for their stability. Key community entrepreneurs and leaders were the main sources of information for this research. The findings of this thesis suggest that it is a combination of factors such as the failure of the community to maintain its stable economic position through unfortunate business practices and choices coupled with external market forces that slowed this community economic development and disabled its continued growth. Title: The Kazaks of Istanbul: A Case of Social Cohesion, Economic Breakdown and the Search for a Moral Economy Author: Auger, Daniel Marc Year: 2016 This research is focused on understanding the ways in which the community orientation of the Kazak ethnic community in Istanbul, Turkey have contributed to their economic success which in turn encourages strong community, and the nature of their community-based support networks for providing material and cultural support. It examines the role of social capital and cohesion in maintaining the community with its positive implications for the continued building of wealth or sourcing of funding on a community level. The theoretical concepts relevant to this project are based on the ideas that the shared values of a community are a positive force that allow communities to achieve common goals and is particularly important in the context of an economy that favors cheap labor and a highly mobile workforce, both factors that negatively affect the asset building and place-based rootedness that communities require for their stability. Key community entrepreneurs and leaders were the main sources of information for this research. The findings of this thesis suggest that it is a combination of factors such as the failure of the community to maintain its stable economic position through unfortunate business practices and choices coupled with external market forces that slowed this community economic development and disabled its continued growth. Close

• 6. [Article] Integrating High-Resolution Datasets to Target Mitigation Efforts for Improving Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Neighborhoods

  Reducing exposure to degraded air quality is essential for building healthy cities. Although air quality and population vary at fine spatial scales, current regulatory and public health frameworks assess ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Integrating High-Resolution Datasets to Target Mitigation Efforts for Improving Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Neighborhoods Author: Shandas, Vivek, Voelkel, Jackson, Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A. Year: 2016 Reducing exposure to degraded air quality is essential for building healthy cities. Although air quality and population vary at fine spatial scales, current regulatory and public health frameworks assess human exposures using county- or city-scales. We build on a spatial analysis technique, dasymetric mapping, for allocating urban populations that, together with emerging fine-scale measurements of air pollution, addresses three objectives: (1) evaluate the role of spatial scale in estimating exposure; (2) identify urban communities that are disproportionately burdened by poor air quality; and (3) estimate reduction in mobile sources of pollutants due to local tree-planting efforts using nitrogen dioxide. Our results show a maximum value of 197% difference between cadastrally-informed dasymetric system (CIDS) and standard estimations of population exposure to degraded air quality for small spatial extent analyses, and a lack of substantial difference for large spatial extent analyses. These results provide the foundation for improving policies for managing air quality, and targeting mitigation efforts to address challenges of environmental justice. Title: Integrating High-Resolution Datasets to Target Mitigation Efforts for Improving Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Neighborhoods Author: Shandas, Vivek, Voelkel, Jackson, Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A. Year: 2016 Reducing exposure to degraded air quality is essential for building healthy cities. Although air quality and population vary at fine spatial scales, current regulatory and public health frameworks assess human exposures using county- or city-scales. We build on a spatial analysis technique, dasymetric mapping, for allocating urban populations that, together with emerging fine-scale measurements of air pollution, addresses three objectives: (1) evaluate the role of spatial scale in estimating exposure; (2) identify urban communities that are disproportionately burdened by poor air quality; and (3) estimate reduction in mobile sources of pollutants due to local tree-planting efforts using nitrogen dioxide. Our results show a maximum value of 197% difference between cadastrally-informed dasymetric system (CIDS) and standard estimations of population exposure to degraded air quality for small spatial extent analyses, and a lack of substantial difference for large spatial extent analyses. These results provide the foundation for improving policies for managing air quality, and targeting mitigation efforts to address challenges of environmental justice. Close

• 7. [Article] Neighborhood Change and the Role of Environmental Stewardship: a Case Study of Green Infrastructure for Stormwater in the City of Portland, Oregon, USA

  Throughout the history of cities, the ecological landscape has often been buried, removed, or taken for granted. A recent recognition that humans are part of the global ecosystem, and that human actions ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Neighborhood Change and the Role of Environmental Stewardship: a Case Study of Green Infrastructure for Stormwater in the City of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Shandas, Vivek Year: 2015 Throughout the history of cities, the ecological landscape has often been buried, removed, or taken for granted. A recent recognition that humans are part of the global ecosystem, and that human actions both cause and are affected by ecological change, brings with it an awareness of the value of nature in cities and of natural systems on which cities depend. The feedbacks between humans and their environment within an urban context can have profound implications for the growth of and change in cities, yet there is a limited understanding of the interactions between biophysical changes in cities and the implications of these changes on the quality of life for residents. The application of a coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework provides a timely and fruitful opportunity to enrich the theory, methods, and understanding of these feedbacks and interconnections. Here, I integrated biophysical and social dimensions relevant to managing urban stormwater by examining a case study of Portland, Oregon, USA. I used empirical data from a pre-post survey (2-yr span) of residents in eight urban neighborhoods to describe feedbacks and interactions between a localized biophysical change in the form of a large-scale decentralized stormwater program and the resulting changes in resident's perceptions in neighborhoods undergoing rapid change. My findings corroborate earlier findings suggesting that people with higher income and education levels are more likely to participate in stewardship actions. The results also suggest an overall and initial negative perception of neighborhoods facilities and services immediately following the construction of decentralized stormwater facilities, but conversely, high levels of anticipation for their construction. By describing these findings through a CHANS framework, I make explicit the importance of integrating scientific understanding, governance efforts, and human behaviors to address acute urban environmental challenges. Title: Neighborhood Change and the Role of Environmental Stewardship: a Case Study of Green Infrastructure for Stormwater in the City of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Shandas, Vivek Year: 2015 Throughout the history of cities, the ecological landscape has often been buried, removed, or taken for granted. A recent recognition that humans are part of the global ecosystem, and that human actions both cause and are affected by ecological change, brings with it an awareness of the value of nature in cities and of natural systems on which cities depend. The feedbacks between humans and their environment within an urban context can have profound implications for the growth of and change in cities, yet there is a limited understanding of the interactions between biophysical changes in cities and the implications of these changes on the quality of life for residents. The application of a coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework provides a timely and fruitful opportunity to enrich the theory, methods, and understanding of these feedbacks and interconnections. Here, I integrated biophysical and social dimensions relevant to managing urban stormwater by examining a case study of Portland, Oregon, USA. I used empirical data from a pre-post survey (2-yr span) of residents in eight urban neighborhoods to describe feedbacks and interactions between a localized biophysical change in the form of a large-scale decentralized stormwater program and the resulting changes in resident's perceptions in neighborhoods undergoing rapid change. My findings corroborate earlier findings suggesting that people with higher income and education levels are more likely to participate in stewardship actions. The results also suggest an overall and initial negative perception of neighborhoods facilities and services immediately following the construction of decentralized stormwater facilities, but conversely, high levels of anticipation for their construction. By describing these findings through a CHANS framework, I make explicit the importance of integrating scientific understanding, governance efforts, and human behaviors to address acute urban environmental challenges. Close

• 8. [Article] The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market

  On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2016 On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds. To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI with the actual level of the Case-Shiller HPI to indicate that home values within the Portland MSA are, within a margin of error, correctly valued. This method indicates that increasing growth in income and migration significantly contributes to rising home prices. This comparison also shows a period of undervaluation following the burst of the last bubble, which helps to explain the price growth of the past few years (the ‘expansion phase’ of the recovery). This analysis uses Error-Correction (EC), General Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to forecast the inflation-adjusted Case Shiller HPI to the end of the year. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of these models necessitate a discussion of their assumptions and consequent limitations. Encouragingly, each of the models describes the same basic story: that average home sale prices will increase at a decreasing growth rate from June to at least December 2016. Changes to land use and building height restrictions are among the external shocks to home prices not included in the model. Since predicting policy decisions is fraught with risk, real-world awareness of potential political outcomes should accompany all forecasts based on known factors. Due to data limitations, not all of the indicators NERC feels are important to HPI are explicitly included in the models. Instead, these indicators offer supporting evidence. Generally, they describe a tight housing market with high demand (as indicated by income, employment, and migration) and low supply (as indicated by housing permits and inventory levels). This analysis corroborates the model estimations and supports the forecasts. Title: The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2016 On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds. To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI with the actual level of the Case-Shiller HPI to indicate that home values within the Portland MSA are, within a margin of error, correctly valued. This method indicates that increasing growth in income and migration significantly contributes to rising home prices. This comparison also shows a period of undervaluation following the burst of the last bubble, which helps to explain the price growth of the past few years (the ‘expansion phase’ of the recovery). This analysis uses Error-Correction (EC), General Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to forecast the inflation-adjusted Case Shiller HPI to the end of the year. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of these models necessitate a discussion of their assumptions and consequent limitations. Encouragingly, each of the models describes the same basic story: that average home sale prices will increase at a decreasing growth rate from June to at least December 2016. Changes to land use and building height restrictions are among the external shocks to home prices not included in the model. Since predicting policy decisions is fraught with risk, real-world awareness of potential political outcomes should accompany all forecasts based on known factors. Due to data limitations, not all of the indicators NERC feels are important to HPI are explicitly included in the models. Instead, these indicators offer supporting evidence. Generally, they describe a tight housing market with high demand (as indicated by income, employment, and migration) and low supply (as indicated by housing permits and inventory levels). This analysis corroborates the model estimations and supports the forecasts. Close