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• 1. [Article] Tidal-Fluvial and Estuarine Processes in the Lower Columbia River: II. Water Level Models, Floodplain Wetland Inundation, and System Zones

  Spatially varying water-level regimes are a factor controlling estuarine and tidal-fluvial wetland vegetation patterns. As described in Part I, water levels in the Lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tidal-Fluvial and Estuarine Processes in the Lower Columbia River: II. Water Level Models, Floodplain Wetland Inundation, and System Zones Author: Jay, David A, Borde, Amy B., Diefenderfer, Heida Year: 2016 Spatially varying water-level regimes are a factor controlling estuarine and tidal-fluvial wetland vegetation patterns. As described in Part I, water levels in the Lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) are influenced by tides, river flow, hydropower operations, and coastal processes. In Part II, regression models based on tidal theory are used to quantify the role of these processes in determining water levels in the mainstem river and floodplain wetlands, and to provide 21-year inundation hindcasts. Analyses are conducted at 19 LCRE mainstem channel stations and 23 tidally exposed floodplain wetland stations. Sum exceedance values (SEVs) are used to compare wetland hydrologic regimes at different locations on the river floodplain. A new predictive tool is introduced and validated, the potential SEV (pSEV), which can reduce the need for extensive new data collection in wetland restoration planning. Models of water levels and inundation frequency distinguish four zones encompassing eight reaches. The system zones are the wave- and current-dominated Entrance to river kilometer (rkm) 5; the Estuary (rkm-5 to 87), comprised of a lower reach with salinity, the energy minimum (where the turbidity maximum normally occurs), and an upper estuary reach without salinity; the Tidal River (rkm-87 to 229), with lower, middle, and upper reaches in which river flow becomes increasingly dominant over tides in determining water levels; and the steep and weakly tidal Cascade (rkm-229 to 234) immediately downstream from Bonneville Dam. The same zonation is seen in the water levels of floodplain stations, with considerable modification of tidal properties. The system zones and reaches defined here reflect geological features and their boundaries are congruent with five wetland vegetation zones. Title: Tidal-Fluvial and Estuarine Processes in the Lower Columbia River: II. Water Level Models, Floodplain Wetland Inundation, and System Zones Author: Jay, David A, Borde, Amy B., Diefenderfer, Heida Year: 2016 Spatially varying water-level regimes are a factor controlling estuarine and tidal-fluvial wetland vegetation patterns. As described in Part I, water levels in the Lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) are influenced by tides, river flow, hydropower operations, and coastal processes. In Part II, regression models based on tidal theory are used to quantify the role of these processes in determining water levels in the mainstem river and floodplain wetlands, and to provide 21-year inundation hindcasts. Analyses are conducted at 19 LCRE mainstem channel stations and 23 tidally exposed floodplain wetland stations. Sum exceedance values (SEVs) are used to compare wetland hydrologic regimes at different locations on the river floodplain. A new predictive tool is introduced and validated, the potential SEV (pSEV), which can reduce the need for extensive new data collection in wetland restoration planning. Models of water levels and inundation frequency distinguish four zones encompassing eight reaches. The system zones are the wave- and current-dominated Entrance to river kilometer (rkm) 5; the Estuary (rkm-5 to 87), comprised of a lower reach with salinity, the energy minimum (where the turbidity maximum normally occurs), and an upper estuary reach without salinity; the Tidal River (rkm-87 to 229), with lower, middle, and upper reaches in which river flow becomes increasingly dominant over tides in determining water levels; and the steep and weakly tidal Cascade (rkm-229 to 234) immediately downstream from Bonneville Dam. The same zonation is seen in the water levels of floodplain stations, with considerable modification of tidal properties. The system zones and reaches defined here reflect geological features and their boundaries are congruent with five wetland vegetation zones. Close

• 2. [Article] Evaluating Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Hydrologic Modeling over the Columbia River Basin

  Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) approach helps to identify the effectiveness of model parameters or inputs and thus provides essential information about the model performance. The effects of 14 parameters ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluating Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Hydrologic Modeling over the Columbia River Basin Author: Hameed, Maysoun Ayad Year: 2015 Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) approach helps to identify the effectiveness of model parameters or inputs and thus provides essential information about the model performance. The effects of 14 parameters and one input (forcing data) of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model are analyzed by using two GSA methods: Sobol' and Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST). The simulations are carried out over five sub-basins within the Columbia River Basin (CRB) for three different periods: one-year, four-year, and seven-year. The main parameter sensitivities (first-order) and the interactions sensitivities (second-order) are evaluated in this study. Our results show that some hydrological processes are highly affected by the simulation length. In other words, some parameters reveal importance during the short period simulation (e.g. one-year) while other parameters are effective in the long period simulations (e.g. four-year and seven-year). Moreover, the reliability of the sensitivity analysis results is compared based on 1) the agreement between the two sensitivity analysis methods (Sobol' and FAST) in terms of highlighting the same parameters or input as the most influential parameters or input and 2) how the methods are cohered in ranking these sensitive parameters under the same conditions (sub-basins and simulation length). The results show that the coherence between the Sobol' and FAST sensitivity analysis methods. Additionally, it is found that FAST method is sufficient to evaluate the main effects of the model parameters and inputs. This study confirms that the Sobol' and FAST methods are reliable GSA methods that can be applied in different scientific applications. Finally, as a future work, we suggest to study the uncertainty associated with the sensitivity analysis approach regarding the reliability of evaluating different sensitivity analysis methods. Title: Evaluating Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Hydrologic Modeling over the Columbia River Basin Author: Hameed, Maysoun Ayad Year: 2015 Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) approach helps to identify the effectiveness of model parameters or inputs and thus provides essential information about the model performance. The effects of 14 parameters and one input (forcing data) of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model are analyzed by using two GSA methods: Sobol' and Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST). The simulations are carried out over five sub-basins within the Columbia River Basin (CRB) for three different periods: one-year, four-year, and seven-year. The main parameter sensitivities (first-order) and the interactions sensitivities (second-order) are evaluated in this study. Our results show that some hydrological processes are highly affected by the simulation length. In other words, some parameters reveal importance during the short period simulation (e.g. one-year) while other parameters are effective in the long period simulations (e.g. four-year and seven-year). Moreover, the reliability of the sensitivity analysis results is compared based on 1) the agreement between the two sensitivity analysis methods (Sobol' and FAST) in terms of highlighting the same parameters or input as the most influential parameters or input and 2) how the methods are cohered in ranking these sensitive parameters under the same conditions (sub-basins and simulation length). The results show that the coherence between the Sobol' and FAST sensitivity analysis methods. Additionally, it is found that FAST method is sufficient to evaluate the main effects of the model parameters and inputs. This study confirms that the Sobol' and FAST methods are reliable GSA methods that can be applied in different scientific applications. Finally, as a future work, we suggest to study the uncertainty associated with the sensitivity analysis approach regarding the reliability of evaluating different sensitivity analysis methods. Close

• 3. [Article] Automatic Calibration of Water Quality and Hydrodynamic Model (CE-QUAL-W2)

  One of the most important purposes of surface water resource management is to develop predictive models to assist in identifying and evaluating operational and structural measures for improving water quality. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Automatic Calibration of Water Quality and Hydrodynamic Model (CE-QUAL-W2) Author: Shojaei, Nasim Year: 2014 One of the most important purposes of surface water resource management is to develop predictive models to assist in identifying and evaluating operational and structural measures for improving water quality. To better understand the effects of external and internal nutrient and organic loading and the effects of reservoir operation, a model is often developed, calibrated, and used for sensitivity and management simulations. The importance of modeling and simulation in the scientific community has drawn interest towards methods for automated calibration. This study addresses using an automatic technique to calibrate the water quality model CE-QUAL-W2 (Cole and Wells, 2013). CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional (2D) longitudinal/vertical hydrodynamic and water quality model for surface water bodies, modeling eutrophication processes such as temperature-nutrient-algae-dissolved oxygen-organic matter and sediment relationships. The numerical method used for calibration in this study is the particle swarm optimization method developed by Kennedy and Eberhart (1995) and inspired by the paradigm of birds flocking. The objective of this calibration procedure is to choose model parameters and coefficients affecting temperature, chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen, and nutrients (such as NH4, NO3, and PO4). A case study is presented for the Karkheh Reservoir in Iran with a capacity of more than 5 billion cubic meters that is the largest dam in Iran with both agricultural and drinking water usages. This algorithm is shown to perform very well for determining model parameters for the reservoir water quality and hydrodynamic model. Implications of the use of this procedure for other water quality models are also shown. Title: Automatic Calibration of Water Quality and Hydrodynamic Model (CE-QUAL-W2) Author: Shojaei, Nasim Year: 2014 One of the most important purposes of surface water resource management is to develop predictive models to assist in identifying and evaluating operational and structural measures for improving water quality. To better understand the effects of external and internal nutrient and organic loading and the effects of reservoir operation, a model is often developed, calibrated, and used for sensitivity and management simulations. The importance of modeling and simulation in the scientific community has drawn interest towards methods for automated calibration. This study addresses using an automatic technique to calibrate the water quality model CE-QUAL-W2 (Cole and Wells, 2013). CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional (2D) longitudinal/vertical hydrodynamic and water quality model for surface water bodies, modeling eutrophication processes such as temperature-nutrient-algae-dissolved oxygen-organic matter and sediment relationships. The numerical method used for calibration in this study is the particle swarm optimization method developed by Kennedy and Eberhart (1995) and inspired by the paradigm of birds flocking. The objective of this calibration procedure is to choose model parameters and coefficients affecting temperature, chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen, and nutrients (such as NH4, NO3, and PO4). A case study is presented for the Karkheh Reservoir in Iran with a capacity of more than 5 billion cubic meters that is the largest dam in Iran with both agricultural and drinking water usages. This algorithm is shown to perform very well for determining model parameters for the reservoir water quality and hydrodynamic model. Implications of the use of this procedure for other water quality models are also shown. Close

• 4. [Article] Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales

  Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales Author: Madadgar, Shahrbanou Year: 2014 Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. Reliable forecast of hydrologic variables, in general, is a preliminary requirement for appropriate planning of water resources and developing effective allocation policies. This study aims at developing new techniques with specific probabilistic features to improve the reliability of hydrologic forecasts, particularly the drought forecasts. The drought status in the future is determined by certain hydrologic variables that are basically estimated by the hydrologic models with rather simple to complex structures. Since the predictions of hydrologic models are prone to different sources of uncertainties, there have been several techniques examined during past several years which generally attempt to combine the predictions of single (multiple) hydrologic models to generate an ensemble of hydrologic forecasts addressing the inherent uncertainties. However, the imperfect structure of hydrologic models usually lead to systematic bias of hydrologic predictions that further appears in the forecast ensembles. This study proposes a post-processing method that is applied to the raw forecast of hydrologic variables and can develop the entire distribution of forecast around the initial single-value prediction. To establish the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast, a group of multivariate distribution functions, the so-called copula functions, are incorporated in the post-processing procedure. The performance of the new post-processing technique is tested on 2500 hypothetical case studies and the streamflow forecast of Sprague River Basin in southern Oregon. Verified by some deterministic and probabilistic verification measures, the method of Quantile Mapping as a traditional post-processing technique cannot generate the qualified forecasts as comparing with the copula-based method. The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies. Title: Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales Author: Madadgar, Shahrbanou Year: 2014 Recent water scarcities across the southwestern U.S. with severe effects on the living environment inspire the development of new methodologies to achieve reliable drought forecasting in seasonal scale. Reliable forecast of hydrologic variables, in general, is a preliminary requirement for appropriate planning of water resources and developing effective allocation policies. This study aims at developing new techniques with specific probabilistic features to improve the reliability of hydrologic forecasts, particularly the drought forecasts. The drought status in the future is determined by certain hydrologic variables that are basically estimated by the hydrologic models with rather simple to complex structures. Since the predictions of hydrologic models are prone to different sources of uncertainties, there have been several techniques examined during past several years which generally attempt to combine the predictions of single (multiple) hydrologic models to generate an ensemble of hydrologic forecasts addressing the inherent uncertainties. However, the imperfect structure of hydrologic models usually lead to systematic bias of hydrologic predictions that further appears in the forecast ensembles. This study proposes a post-processing method that is applied to the raw forecast of hydrologic variables and can develop the entire distribution of forecast around the initial single-value prediction. To establish the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast, a group of multivariate distribution functions, the so-called copula functions, are incorporated in the post-processing procedure. The performance of the new post-processing technique is tested on 2500 hypothetical case studies and the streamflow forecast of Sprague River Basin in southern Oregon. Verified by some deterministic and probabilistic verification measures, the method of Quantile Mapping as a traditional post-processing technique cannot generate the qualified forecasts as comparing with the copula-based method. The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies. Close

• 5. [Article] Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon

  The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon Author: Weatherford, Jonathan Michael Year: 2015 The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream relocation, and the formation of biologically diverse fens and seasonal wetlands. The pumice aquifer at Round Meadow, an 8.6 km2 basin, hosts both a fen and seasonally ponded wetlands. The Round Meadow watershed lies within a closed basin between the upper Klamath and Deschutes river basins. As the highest meadow at Walker Rim, it is a relatively well-constrained system to study the effects of hydrological disruption. A water budget was calculated for the basin, hydraulic conductivity was evaluated for the three main sediment layers in the meadow, recharge sources and evaporative trends were studied using stable isotope analysis, and aquifer residence times were estimated using CFC tracer water age dating. Water year 2014 was a drought year and observation of the system under stressed conditions allowed discrimination of four independently functioning components of the hydrogeologic system. These were the meadow, which is by far the largest component in terms of water storage, the fen where iron cementation and up to 1 m of peat holds water in a berm above the meadow, three springs which are sourced from deeper groundwater hosted in the bedrock which underlies the pumice deposit, and the outflow area. In all cases, the aquifer material is pumice, but the influence of the pre-eruption landscape and post-eruption modifications of the aquifer material have resulted in partial isolation of the components. The water budget analysis indicated that the basin lost 44 cm of water storage during WY 2014. Hydraulic conductivity values of 1x10-6, 2x10-2, and 4x10-5 cm/s, were determined for the diatomaceous silt underlying the pumice, the Plinian pumice fall aquifer, and for the diatomaceous silt overlying the pumice, respectively. The pumice is characterized as a perched, weakly confined aquifer and residence times in the pumice are much longer (decades) than for water near the surface of the meadow. Water discharging at the springs is isotopically different (lighter) than either the surface water or groundwater in the pumice aquifer. The fen at Round Meadow appears dependent on seasonal precipitation to recharge water, and responds to fluctuations in annual precipitation. The wetland meadows are volumetrically the main water-storing features at Round Meadow, and these are not homogenous features, but a combination of discrete components. Title: Hydrogeologic Investigation of a Pumice Aquifer, Fremont/Winema National Forest, Oregon Author: Weatherford, Jonathan Michael Year: 2015 The middle Holocene cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama blanketed Walker Rim, in south central Oregon, with 270 cm to 300 cm of pumice, causing capture of surface water systems by groundwater, stream relocation, and the formation of biologically diverse fens and seasonal wetlands. The pumice aquifer at Round Meadow, an 8.6 km2 basin, hosts both a fen and seasonally ponded wetlands. The Round Meadow watershed lies within a closed basin between the upper Klamath and Deschutes river basins. As the highest meadow at Walker Rim, it is a relatively well-constrained system to study the effects of hydrological disruption. A water budget was calculated for the basin, hydraulic conductivity was evaluated for the three main sediment layers in the meadow, recharge sources and evaporative trends were studied using stable isotope analysis, and aquifer residence times were estimated using CFC tracer water age dating. Water year 2014 was a drought year and observation of the system under stressed conditions allowed discrimination of four independently functioning components of the hydrogeologic system. These were the meadow, which is by far the largest component in terms of water storage, the fen where iron cementation and up to 1 m of peat holds water in a berm above the meadow, three springs which are sourced from deeper groundwater hosted in the bedrock which underlies the pumice deposit, and the outflow area. In all cases, the aquifer material is pumice, but the influence of the pre-eruption landscape and post-eruption modifications of the aquifer material have resulted in partial isolation of the components. The water budget analysis indicated that the basin lost 44 cm of water storage during WY 2014. Hydraulic conductivity values of 1x10-6, 2x10-2, and 4x10-5 cm/s, were determined for the diatomaceous silt underlying the pumice, the Plinian pumice fall aquifer, and for the diatomaceous silt overlying the pumice, respectively. The pumice is characterized as a perched, weakly confined aquifer and residence times in the pumice are much longer (decades) than for water near the surface of the meadow. Water discharging at the springs is isotopically different (lighter) than either the surface water or groundwater in the pumice aquifer. The fen at Round Meadow appears dependent on seasonal precipitation to recharge water, and responds to fluctuations in annual precipitation. The wetland meadows are volumetrically the main water-storing features at Round Meadow, and these are not homogenous features, but a combination of discrete components. Close