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• 1. [Article] Winter Climate Change Affects Growing-Season Soil Microbial Biomass and Activity in Northern Hardwood Forests

  Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Winter Climate Change Affects Growing-Season Soil Microbial Biomass and Activity in Northern Hardwood Forests Author: Durán, Jorge, Morse, Jennifer L., Groffman, Peter M., Campbell, John L., Christenson, Lynn M., Driscoll, Charles T., Fahey, Timothy J., Fisk, Melany C., Mitchell, Mryon J., Templer, Pamela H. Year: 2014 Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine how reductions in snow accumulation, expected with climate change, directly affect dynamics of soil winter frost, and indirectly soil microbial biomass and activity during the growing season. Soils from lower elevation plots, which accumulated less snow and experienced more soil temperature variability during the winter (and likely more freeze/thaw events), had less extractable inorganic nitrogen (N), lower rates of microbial N production via potential net N mineralization and nitrification, and higher potential microbial respiration during the growing season. Potential nitrate production rates during the growing season were particularly sensitive to changes in winter snow pack accumulation and winter soil temperature variability, especially in spring. Effects of elevation and winter conditions on N transformation rates dif­ fered from those on potential microbial respiration, suggesting that N-related processes might respond differently to winter climate change in northern hardwood forests than C-related processes. Title: Winter Climate Change Affects Growing-Season Soil Microbial Biomass and Activity in Northern Hardwood Forests Author: Durán, Jorge, Morse, Jennifer L., Groffman, Peter M., Campbell, John L., Christenson, Lynn M., Driscoll, Charles T., Fahey, Timothy J., Fisk, Melany C., Mitchell, Mryon J., Templer, Pamela H. Year: 2014 Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine how reductions in snow accumulation, expected with climate change, directly affect dynamics of soil winter frost, and indirectly soil microbial biomass and activity during the growing season. Soils from lower elevation plots, which accumulated less snow and experienced more soil temperature variability during the winter (and likely more freeze/thaw events), had less extractable inorganic nitrogen (N), lower rates of microbial N production via potential net N mineralization and nitrification, and higher potential microbial respiration during the growing season. Potential nitrate production rates during the growing season were particularly sensitive to changes in winter snow pack accumulation and winter soil temperature variability, especially in spring. Effects of elevation and winter conditions on N transformation rates dif­ fered from those on potential microbial respiration, suggesting that N-related processes might respond differently to winter climate change in northern hardwood forests than C-related processes. Close

• 2. [Article] A Comparative Assessment of Projected Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts: Elucidating the Role of Temperature

  The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Comparative Assessment of Projected Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts: Elucidating the Role of Temperature Author: Ahmadalipour, Ali, Moradkhani, Hamid, Demirel, Mehmet C. Year: 2017 The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970–1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010–2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty. Title: A Comparative Assessment of Projected Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts: Elucidating the Role of Temperature Author: Ahmadalipour, Ali, Moradkhani, Hamid, Demirel, Mehmet C. Year: 2017 The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970–1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010–2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty. Close

• 3. [Article] Initial evaluations of a U.S. Navy Rapidly Relocatable Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Ocean Forecast System in the Context of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Disaster

  In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Initial evaluations of a U.S. Navy Rapidly Relocatable Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Ocean Forecast System in the Context of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Disaster Author: Zaron, Edward D., Fitzpatrick, Patrick J., Cross, Scott L., Harding, John M., Bub, Frank L., Wiggert, Jerry D., Ko, Dong S., Lau, Yee, Woodward, Katharine, Mooers, Christopher N.K. Year: 2015 In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches: a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project (GOMEX-PPP); a British Petroleum (BP) funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH. Title: Initial evaluations of a U.S. Navy Rapidly Relocatable Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Ocean Forecast System in the Context of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Disaster Author: Zaron, Edward D., Fitzpatrick, Patrick J., Cross, Scott L., Harding, John M., Bub, Frank L., Wiggert, Jerry D., Ko, Dong S., Lau, Yee, Woodward, Katharine, Mooers, Christopher N.K. Year: 2015 In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches: a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project (GOMEX-PPP); a British Petroleum (BP) funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH. Close

• 4. [Article] Trajectory Analysis of Black Carbon in the Arctic Region

  Black carbon (BC) is a troubling particulate. Commonly known as soot, BC forms through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass. It has a very low albedo compared to natural particulates ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Trajectory Analysis of Black Carbon in the Arctic Region Author: Gottschalk, Kimberly Year: 2016 Black carbon (BC) is a troubling particulate. Commonly known as soot, BC forms through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass. It has a very low albedo compared to natural particulates making it a very efficient absorber of solar radiation. As BC is deposited on snow and ice, albedo is decreased - enhancing solar heating and increasing meltwater production. With rising air temperatures, melting rates of polar ice are increasing and are being enhanced by BC, leading to accelerated global sea level rise. This study aimed to document sources and deposition areas of BC in the Arctic. Utilizing HySplit, an air trajectory model, patterns of BC trajectories are assessed. Spatial patterns of deposition are estimated from known sources and source regions predicted from known deposition locations through the use of backward trajectory. Atmospheric circulation transports BC from temperate regions into the Arctic. The strength and location of the polar front in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation is a dominant controlling factor. Preliminary results show reoccurring potential sources located in the Northeastern United States, Nova Scotia, Northern United Kingdom, and the Scandinavian Peninsula with large deposition events occurring within the first six months of the year. Title: Trajectory Analysis of Black Carbon in the Arctic Region Author: Gottschalk, Kimberly Year: 2016 Black carbon (BC) is a troubling particulate. Commonly known as soot, BC forms through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass. It has a very low albedo compared to natural particulates making it a very efficient absorber of solar radiation. As BC is deposited on snow and ice, albedo is decreased - enhancing solar heating and increasing meltwater production. With rising air temperatures, melting rates of polar ice are increasing and are being enhanced by BC, leading to accelerated global sea level rise. This study aimed to document sources and deposition areas of BC in the Arctic. Utilizing HySplit, an air trajectory model, patterns of BC trajectories are assessed. Spatial patterns of deposition are estimated from known sources and source regions predicted from known deposition locations through the use of backward trajectory. Atmospheric circulation transports BC from temperate regions into the Arctic. The strength and location of the polar front in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation is a dominant controlling factor. Preliminary results show reoccurring potential sources located in the Northeastern United States, Nova Scotia, Northern United Kingdom, and the Scandinavian Peninsula with large deposition events occurring within the first six months of the year. Close

• 5. [Article] Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

  Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John Year: 2014 Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Title: Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John Year: 2014 Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Close

• 6. [Article] Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity

  Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Close

• 7. [Article] Aquifer Vulnerability Modeling in New Jersey Through the Use of Modified DRASTIC Methodology

  Due to the global average increase in temperature over the last 50 years, sea levels have been rising and making coastal aquifers more susceptible to saltwater intrusion. The average rate of sea level ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Aquifer Vulnerability Modeling in New Jersey Through the Use of Modified DRASTIC Methodology Author: Uduk, Clement, Hopmans, Tanja Year: 2016 Due to the global average increase in temperature over the last 50 years, sea levels have been rising and making coastal aquifers more susceptible to saltwater intrusion. The average rate of sea level rise has increased from 2 mm/year to 3.5 mm/year during the twentieth century. The state of New Jersey is not only densely populated but the development along coastlines makes inundation a potential serious threat. New Jersey is diverse in aquifer types, in addition to the types of water bodies surrounding New Jersey, and makes for an interesting case study for groundwater vulnerability. The EPA has a universal model used to identify potentially contaminated aquifers, the DRASTIC model. This model, however, does not include saltwater intrusion as a potential contaminant and we therefore propose to modify the DRASTIC model in order to address saltwater intrusion as a potential aquifer contaminant, making coastal aquifers more vulnerable to contamination. This study will investigate and compare the aquifer vulnerability mapping ability of the DRASTIC method and a modified DRASTIC method for the state of New Jersey. Title: Aquifer Vulnerability Modeling in New Jersey Through the Use of Modified DRASTIC Methodology Author: Uduk, Clement, Hopmans, Tanja Year: 2016 Due to the global average increase in temperature over the last 50 years, sea levels have been rising and making coastal aquifers more susceptible to saltwater intrusion. The average rate of sea level rise has increased from 2 mm/year to 3.5 mm/year during the twentieth century. The state of New Jersey is not only densely populated but the development along coastlines makes inundation a potential serious threat. New Jersey is diverse in aquifer types, in addition to the types of water bodies surrounding New Jersey, and makes for an interesting case study for groundwater vulnerability. The EPA has a universal model used to identify potentially contaminated aquifers, the DRASTIC model. This model, however, does not include saltwater intrusion as a potential contaminant and we therefore propose to modify the DRASTIC model in order to address saltwater intrusion as a potential aquifer contaminant, making coastal aquifers more vulnerable to contamination. This study will investigate and compare the aquifer vulnerability mapping ability of the DRASTIC method and a modified DRASTIC method for the state of New Jersey. Close

• 8. [Article] Factors Influencing the Survival of Outmigrating Juvenile Salmonids Through Multiple Dam Passages: An Individual-Based Approach

  Substantial declines of Pacific salmon populations have occurred over the past several decades related to large-scale anthropogenic and climatic changes in freshwater and marine environments. In the Columbia ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Factors Influencing the Survival of Outmigrating Juvenile Salmonids Through Multiple Dam Passages: An Individual-Based Approach Author: Elder, Timothy, Woodley, Christa M., Weiland, Mark A., Strecker, Angela L. Year: 2016 Substantial declines of Pacific salmon populations have occurred over the past several decades related to large-scale anthropogenic and climatic changes in freshwater and marine environments. In the Columbia River Basin, migrating juvenile salmonids may pass as many as eight large-scale hydropower projects before reaching the ocean; however, the cumulative effects of multiple dam passages are largely unknown. Using acoustic transmitters and an extensive system of hydrophone arrays in the Lower Columbia River, we calculated the survival of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) passing one, two, or three dams. We applied a unique index of biological characteristics and environmental exposures, experienced by each fish individually as it migrated downstream, in order to examine which factors most influence salmonid survival. High outflow volumes led to involuntary spill in 2011 and created an environment of supersaturated dissolved gas concentrations. In this environment, migrating smolt survival was strongly influenced by barometric pressure, fish velocity, and water temperature. The effect of these variables on survival was compounded by multiple dam passages compared to fish passing a single dam. Despite spatial isolation between dams in the Lower Columbia River hydrosystem, migrating smolt appear to experience cumulative effects akin to a press disturbance. In general, Chinook salmon and steelhead respond similarly in terms of survival rates and responses to altered environmental conditions. Management actions that limit dissolved gas concentrations in years of high flow will benefit migrating salmonids at this life stage. Title: Factors Influencing the Survival of Outmigrating Juvenile Salmonids Through Multiple Dam Passages: An Individual-Based Approach Author: Elder, Timothy, Woodley, Christa M., Weiland, Mark A., Strecker, Angela L. Year: 2016 Substantial declines of Pacific salmon populations have occurred over the past several decades related to large-scale anthropogenic and climatic changes in freshwater and marine environments. In the Columbia River Basin, migrating juvenile salmonids may pass as many as eight large-scale hydropower projects before reaching the ocean; however, the cumulative effects of multiple dam passages are largely unknown. Using acoustic transmitters and an extensive system of hydrophone arrays in the Lower Columbia River, we calculated the survival of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) passing one, two, or three dams. We applied a unique index of biological characteristics and environmental exposures, experienced by each fish individually as it migrated downstream, in order to examine which factors most influence salmonid survival. High outflow volumes led to involuntary spill in 2011 and created an environment of supersaturated dissolved gas concentrations. In this environment, migrating smolt survival was strongly influenced by barometric pressure, fish velocity, and water temperature. The effect of these variables on survival was compounded by multiple dam passages compared to fish passing a single dam. Despite spatial isolation between dams in the Lower Columbia River hydrosystem, migrating smolt appear to experience cumulative effects akin to a press disturbance. In general, Chinook salmon and steelhead respond similarly in terms of survival rates and responses to altered environmental conditions. Management actions that limit dissolved gas concentrations in years of high flow will benefit migrating salmonids at this life stage. Close

• 9. [Article] Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR

  The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR Author: Kendrick, Christine M., Urowsky, David, Rotich, Willie, Koonce, Peter, George, Linda Acha Year: 2014 The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic performance metrics, we are investigating how this system affects roadway emissions of air pollutants. A twenty-second reduction to maximum cycle length was proposed for the SCATS system to address pedestrian delay concerns. A two-week trial period with this reduced cycle length was implemented. Travel times and roadside air pollution concentrations were monitored throughout this study period and compared to before and after periods with the current maximum cycle length. Average travel times were found to be significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length, but with a mean difference of only 4-5 seconds for travel time. Assessment of travel time for this roadway suggests that a twenty second decrease in maximum cycle length to help shorten pedestrian delay can be made without significant consequences to travel time. Total traffic volumes were consistent for all four weeks of the study. Meteorological conditions were similar for the first two weeks comparing maximum cycle lengths. A shift in ambient temperature led the second two weeks of the cycle length comparison to have more similar meteorological conditions versus the first two weeks. Average NO and NO2 concentrations were not significantly different for the first half of the study. However, NO and NO2 concentrations were significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length for the second half of the study. When there was a significant difference based on t-test statistics, the measurements did show an increase in roadside concentrations during the shorter maximum cycle length. Preliminary results are unclear if changes to air quality (as assessed by NO and NO2 concentrations) occur or not due to the reduced maximum cycle length. Results require further comparative analysis in which meteorology and traffic conditions are controlled for so that any difference in air quality due to maximum cycle length alone can be quantified. Title: Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR Author: Kendrick, Christine M., Urowsky, David, Rotich, Willie, Koonce, Peter, George, Linda Acha Year: 2014 The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic performance metrics, we are investigating how this system affects roadway emissions of air pollutants. A twenty-second reduction to maximum cycle length was proposed for the SCATS system to address pedestrian delay concerns. A two-week trial period with this reduced cycle length was implemented. Travel times and roadside air pollution concentrations were monitored throughout this study period and compared to before and after periods with the current maximum cycle length. Average travel times were found to be significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length, but with a mean difference of only 4-5 seconds for travel time. Assessment of travel time for this roadway suggests that a twenty second decrease in maximum cycle length to help shorten pedestrian delay can be made without significant consequences to travel time. Total traffic volumes were consistent for all four weeks of the study. Meteorological conditions were similar for the first two weeks comparing maximum cycle lengths. A shift in ambient temperature led the second two weeks of the cycle length comparison to have more similar meteorological conditions versus the first two weeks. Average NO and NO2 concentrations were not significantly different for the first half of the study. However, NO and NO2 concentrations were significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length for the second half of the study. When there was a significant difference based on t-test statistics, the measurements did show an increase in roadside concentrations during the shorter maximum cycle length. Preliminary results are unclear if changes to air quality (as assessed by NO and NO2 concentrations) occur or not due to the reduced maximum cycle length. Results require further comparative analysis in which meteorology and traffic conditions are controlled for so that any difference in air quality due to maximum cycle length alone can be quantified. Close

• 10. [Article] The Effects of Global Change Upon United States Air Quality

  To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Effects of Global Change Upon United States Air Quality Author: Gonzalez-Abraham, Rodrigo, Chung, Serena H., Avise, Jeremy C., Lamb, Brian, Salathé, Eric P., Jr., Nolte, Christopher G., Loughlin, Dan, Guenther, Alex, Wiedinmyer, Christine, Duhl, Tiffany, Zhang, Yang, Streets, David G. Year: 2015 To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1–6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m−3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations. Title: The Effects of Global Change Upon United States Air Quality Author: Gonzalez-Abraham, Rodrigo, Chung, Serena H., Avise, Jeremy C., Lamb, Brian, Salathé, Eric P., Jr., Nolte, Christopher G., Loughlin, Dan, Guenther, Alex, Wiedinmyer, Christine, Duhl, Tiffany, Zhang, Yang, Streets, David G. Year: 2015 To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1–6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m−3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations. Close