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• 41. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20

  The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Close

• 42. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14

  This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. CSD enrolled 5,015 students in Fall 2008, 139 fewer students (2.7 percent) than in Fall 2007. A small decrease had been forecast due to a relatively small birth cohort corresponding to the 2008-09 kindergarten class and a slowing housing market, but actual enrollment was even lower. In contrast to last year, there were almost no enrollment gains from new housing, and for the first time in many years the District lost students due to net mobility at the elementary level, that is, more children left the District than entered it. Enrollment losses in previous years were influenced more by age structure and the relative sizes of individual grade cohorts than by mobility. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. CSD enrolled 5,015 students in Fall 2008, 139 fewer students (2.7 percent) than in Fall 2007. A small decrease had been forecast due to a relatively small birth cohort corresponding to the 2008-09 kindergarten class and a slowing housing market, but actual enrollment was even lower. In contrast to last year, there were almost no enrollment gains from new housing, and for the first time in many years the District lost students due to net mobility at the elementary level, that is, more children left the District than entered it. Enrollment losses in previous years were influenced more by age structure and the relative sizes of individual grade cohorts than by mobility. Close

• 43. [Article] Molalla River School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21

  This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Molalla River School District (MRSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Molalla River School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Molalla River School District (MRSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide grade level enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2020-21 school years. Three possible scenarios for MRSD enrollment correspond to three different population forecasts, which depend on unique assumptions about net migration. Other factors including fertility rates, shares of District residents enrolled in public schools, and enrollment impacts of charter schools do not vary between scenarios; they are held constant. In spite of rapid population and housing growth in the City of Molalla since the 1990s, total enrollment in the MRSD has only fluctuated by a few hundred students since the District’s 1993 consolidation. K-12 enrollment of 2,877 in Fall 2008 was about the same as in Fall 2000, though there are now fewer students in grades K-8 and more in grades 9- 12. Title: Molalla River School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Molalla River School District (MRSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide grade level enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2020-21 school years. Three possible scenarios for MRSD enrollment correspond to three different population forecasts, which depend on unique assumptions about net migration. Other factors including fertility rates, shares of District residents enrolled in public schools, and enrollment impacts of charter schools do not vary between scenarios; they are held constant. In spite of rapid population and housing growth in the City of Molalla since the 1990s, total enrollment in the MRSD has only fluctuated by a few hundred students since the District’s 1993 consolidation. K-12 enrollment of 2,877 in Fall 2008 was about the same as in Fall 2000, though there are now fewer students in grades K-8 and more in grades 9- 12. Close

• 44. [Article] Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although the forecasts for the next three to four years are for stable or slightly declining K-12 enrollments. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a “HIGH SCENARIO” forecast that is consistent with the population forecast recently adopted in the City of Banks Comprehensive Plan, and a “LOW SCENARIO” forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels. This study also presents estimates of the number of students per housing unit within the District. We found that student generation is higher in homes within the City of Banks than those in unincorporated Washington County. More significantly, BSD student generation rates are higher in newer homes (Arbor Village and Banks Estates in the City and homes built since 2000 in the unincorporated area) than in older homes. Detailed information about the average number of BSD students per home is presented in the “Housing Development and Student Generation” section of this report. Title: Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although the forecasts for the next three to four years are for stable or slightly declining K-12 enrollments. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a “HIGH SCENARIO” forecast that is consistent with the population forecast recently adopted in the City of Banks Comprehensive Plan, and a “LOW SCENARIO” forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels. This study also presents estimates of the number of students per housing unit within the District. We found that student generation is higher in homes within the City of Banks than those in unincorporated Washington County. More significantly, BSD student generation rates are higher in newer homes (Arbor Village and Banks Estates in the City and homes built since 2000 in the unincorporated area) than in older homes. Detailed information about the average number of BSD students per home is presented in the “Housing Development and Student Generation” section of this report. Close

• 45. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan Year: 2008 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with increases of 99 students (1.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 36 students (1.3 percent) in grades 6-8. District-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 was unchanged from Fall 2007. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2018-19 school years. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 20 of the past 21 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan Year: 2008 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with increases of 99 students (1.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 36 students (1.3 percent) in grades 6-8. District-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 was unchanged from Fall 2007. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2018-19 school years. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 20 of the past 21 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Close

• 46. [Article] Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18

  The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell by 143 students, or 15 percent. This year’s enrollment of 822 represents an increase of 20 students (2.5 percent) from Fall 2006, the largest increase since 1994. The long period of decline initially had its greatest impact on elementary grades, followed by middle school and more recently high school. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the Amity District should not expect enrollment declines to continue in the long run, although about three more years of small losses are forecast at the high school level. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a "baseline" forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels, and a "high range" forecast that anticipates higher migration levels, primarily due to an increase in housing development. Title: Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell by 143 students, or 15 percent. This year’s enrollment of 822 represents an increase of 20 students (2.5 percent) from Fall 2006, the largest increase since 1994. The long period of decline initially had its greatest impact on elementary grades, followed by middle school and more recently high school. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the Amity District should not expect enrollment declines to continue in the long run, although about three more years of small losses are forecast at the high school level. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a "baseline" forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels, and a "high range" forecast that anticipates higher migration levels, primarily due to an increase in housing development. Close

• 47. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments

  The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Close

• 48. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases of 59 students (2.1 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 93 students (2.4 percent) in high school grades 9-12. Elementary grades K-5 enrolled only one more student in Fall 2007 compared with Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Single family housing development in 2007 has been slower than in recent years, as homebuilders have adjusted to the slower housing market that has affected the Portland metropolitan region. But construction and sales are continuing in several subdivisions in the District, at least two large multi-family developments are planned, and redevelopment and infill is also adding to the District’s housing stock. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases of 59 students (2.1 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 93 students (2.4 percent) in high school grades 9-12. Elementary grades K-5 enrolled only one more student in Fall 2007 compared with Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Single family housing development in 2007 has been slower than in recent years, as homebuilders have adjusted to the slower housing market that has affected the Portland metropolitan region. But construction and sales are continuing in several subdivisions in the District, at least two large multi-family developments are planned, and redevelopment and infill is also adding to the District’s housing stock. Close