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• 41. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments

  The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Close

• 42. [Article] Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21

  The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County and a small piece of Washington County. The area served by the District has experienced population growth in recent years, but overall school enrollment losses in two of the past five years have negated the gains in the other three years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that SSD enrollment will increase during the next fifteen years, with relatively slow growth in the first five years and faster growth during the 2010 to 2020 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. In the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Title: Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County and a small piece of Washington County. The area served by the District has experienced population growth in recent years, but overall school enrollment losses in two of the past five years have negated the gains in the other three years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that SSD enrollment will increase during the next fifteen years, with relatively slow growth in the first five years and faster growth during the 2010 to 2020 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. In the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Close

• 43. [Article] McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2015-16

  The McMinnville School District (MSD) enrolled 6,411 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 156 students (2.4 percent) from Fall 2009. The decrease occurred at all levels, including losses of 98 students ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2015-16 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David, Robertson, Megan Year: 2011 The McMinnville School District (MSD) enrolled 6,411 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 156 students (2.4 percent) from Fall 2009. The decrease occurred at all levels, including losses of 98 students (3.2 percent) in elementary grades K-5, seven students (0.5 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 51 students (2.5 percent) in high school grades 9-12. In spite of this year’s enrollment decline, district-wide K-12 enrollment in Fall 2010 was 381 students (6.3 percent) larger than in Fall 2005. During the five year period, all levels shared the growth, with increases of 5.7 percent at the elementary and middle school levels and 7.8 percent at the high school level. Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2015-16 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David, Robertson, Megan Year: 2011 The McMinnville School District (MSD) enrolled 6,411 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 156 students (2.4 percent) from Fall 2009. The decrease occurred at all levels, including losses of 98 students (3.2 percent) in elementary grades K-5, seven students (0.5 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 51 students (2.5 percent) in high school grades 9-12. In spite of this year’s enrollment decline, district-wide K-12 enrollment in Fall 2010 was 381 students (6.3 percent) larger than in Fall 2005. During the five year period, all levels shared the growth, with increases of 5.7 percent at the elementary and middle school levels and 7.8 percent at the high school level. Close

• 44. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range forecast scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range forecast scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 45. [Article] Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2025-26

  This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for BSD enrollment during the next 17 years based ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for BSD enrollment during the next 17 years based on different assumptions about future net migration and fertility rates. The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide enrollments by grade level for the 2009-10 to 2025-26 school years. Title: Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for BSD enrollment during the next 17 years based on different assumptions about future net migration and fertility rates. The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide enrollments by grade level for the 2009-10 to 2025-26 school years. Close

• 46. [Article] Hermiston School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17

  The Hermiston School District (HSD) has experienced increases in overall K-12 enrollment in each of the past 11 years. In the past five years, enrollments have increased by an average of 119 annually, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hermiston School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Hermiston School District (HSD) has experienced increases in overall K-12 enrollment in each of the past 11 years. In the past five years, enrollments have increased by an average of 119 annually, reaching a total of 4,776 students in Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the most likely scenario is for continued enrollment growth in the HSD during the next 10 years until 2016-17. Title: Hermiston School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Hermiston School District (HSD) has experienced increases in overall K-12 enrollment in each of the past 11 years. In the past five years, enrollments have increased by an average of 119 annually, reaching a total of 4,776 students in Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the most likely scenario is for continued enrollment growth in the HSD during the next 10 years until 2016-17. Close

• 47. [Article] Junction City School District: Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12

  After a period of sustained enrollment growth from the late 1980s through the 1997-98 school year, total enrollment in the Junction City School District (JCSD) has fallen in eight of the past nine years. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Junction City School District: Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 After a period of sustained enrollment growth from the late 1980s through the 1997-98 school year, total enrollment in the Junction City School District (JCSD) has fallen in eight of the past nine years. During the period, all schools have lost enrollment, and the K-12 total has decreased by 248 students, from 2,083 in 1997-98 to 1,835 in 2006-07. This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for JCSD enrollment during the next five years, each with a unique assumption about the pace of expected housing development. Title: Junction City School District: Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 After a period of sustained enrollment growth from the late 1980s through the 1997-98 school year, total enrollment in the Junction City School District (JCSD) has fallen in eight of the past nine years. During the period, all schools have lost enrollment, and the K-12 total has decreased by 248 students, from 2,083 in 1997-98 to 1,835 in 2006-07. This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for JCSD enrollment during the next five years, each with a unique assumption about the pace of expected housing development. Close

• 48. [Article] North Marion School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17

  After a period of slow growth in the late 1990s, total enrollment in the North Marion School District (NMSD) has grown by an average of 2.5 percent annually over the most recent six years from 2000-01 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Marion School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 After a period of slow growth in the late 1990s, total enrollment in the North Marion School District (NMSD) has grown by an average of 2.5 percent annually over the most recent six years from 2000-01 to 2006-07. During the period, all schools have added enrollment, and the K-12 total has increased by 270 students, from 1,670 to 1,940. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that overall NMSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next 10 years, with the greatest initial (five year) growth in primary and elementary grades, subsequent growth in middle school, and relatively slow growth in high school within the 10 year forecast horizon. Title: North Marion School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 After a period of slow growth in the late 1990s, total enrollment in the North Marion School District (NMSD) has grown by an average of 2.5 percent annually over the most recent six years from 2000-01 to 2006-07. During the period, all schools have added enrollment, and the K-12 total has increased by 270 students, from 1,670 to 1,940. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that overall NMSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next 10 years, with the greatest initial (five year) growth in primary and elementary grades, subsequent growth in middle school, and relatively slow growth in high school within the 10 year forecast horizon. Close

• 49. [Article] Rogue River School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2016-17

  The area served by the Rogue River School District (RRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 1,101 students in 2006-07 was 19 percent ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Rogue River School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The area served by the Rogue River School District (RRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 1,101 students in 2006-07 was 19 percent lower than its 1995-96 peak of 1,364. The largest sustained elementary enrollment losses occurred between 1999-2000 and 2002-03, while most of the secondary enrollment losses have occurred since 2002-03. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) presenting three different Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the District between the 2007-08 and 2016-17 school years. Title: Rogue River School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The area served by the Rogue River School District (RRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 1,101 students in 2006-07 was 19 percent lower than its 1995-96 peak of 1,364. The largest sustained elementary enrollment losses occurred between 1999-2000 and 2002-03, while most of the secondary enrollment losses have occurred since 2002-03. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) presenting three different Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the District between the 2007-08 and 2016-17 school years. Close

• 50. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18

  To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast for the 2008-09 through 2017-18 school years has been prepared as a supplement to the 2008-09 to 2012-13 forecast that was presented to the TTSD Board in December, 2007. Forecasts for 2008-09 and 2009-10 for the District and its schools are identical to those published in December, and secondary school forecasts are unchanged through 2012-13. Elementary schools undergo small revisions beginning in 2010-11 due to the availability of updated birth data. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 19 of the past 20 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Under current plans there is a shrinking amount of developable residential land in the District’s communities. If plans remain unchanged and new housing construction returns to recent levels after the current downturn, the District will be near its residential capacity by the end of the 10 year horizon of these forecasts. However, additional residential capacity may be added in the West Bull Mountain area, where concept planning for areas added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 is underway. Also, recent comprehensive plans envision development in the town centers of the Cities of Tigard and Tualatin that includes a mix of higher-density and affordable housing. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast for the 2008-09 through 2017-18 school years has been prepared as a supplement to the 2008-09 to 2012-13 forecast that was presented to the TTSD Board in December, 2007. Forecasts for 2008-09 and 2009-10 for the District and its schools are identical to those published in December, and secondary school forecasts are unchanged through 2012-13. Elementary schools undergo small revisions beginning in 2010-11 due to the availability of updated birth data. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 19 of the past 20 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Under current plans there is a shrinking amount of developable residential land in the District’s communities. If plans remain unchanged and new housing construction returns to recent levels after the current downturn, the District will be near its residential capacity by the end of the 10 year horizon of these forecasts. However, additional residential capacity may be added in the West Bull Mountain area, where concept planning for areas added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 is underway. Also, recent comprehensive plans envision development in the town centers of the Cities of Tigard and Tualatin that includes a mix of higher-density and affordable housing. Close