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• 11. [Article] Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although the forecasts for the next three to four years are for stable or slightly declining K-12 enrollments. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a “HIGH SCENARIO” forecast that is consistent with the population forecast recently adopted in the City of Banks Comprehensive Plan, and a “LOW SCENARIO” forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels. This study also presents estimates of the number of students per housing unit within the District. We found that student generation is higher in homes within the City of Banks than those in unincorporated Washington County. More significantly, BSD student generation rates are higher in newer homes (Arbor Village and Banks Estates in the City and homes built since 2000 in the unincorporated area) than in older homes. Detailed information about the average number of BSD students per home is presented in the “Housing Development and Student Generation” section of this report. Title: Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although the forecasts for the next three to four years are for stable or slightly declining K-12 enrollments. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a “HIGH SCENARIO” forecast that is consistent with the population forecast recently adopted in the City of Banks Comprehensive Plan, and a “LOW SCENARIO” forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels. This study also presents estimates of the number of students per housing unit within the District. We found that student generation is higher in homes within the City of Banks than those in unincorporated Washington County. More significantly, BSD student generation rates are higher in newer homes (Arbor Village and Banks Estates in the City and homes built since 2000 in the unincorporated area) than in older homes. Detailed information about the average number of BSD students per home is presented in the “Housing Development and Student Generation” section of this report. Close

• 12. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13

  The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing developed within the District. A relatively large incoming kindergarten class also played a role in the growth. This report presents the results of an updated demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. We forecast relatively stable K-12 enrollment totals for the next five years. Based on historic trends in births, migration, and housing construction and our judgment of future trends, we conclude that the average enrollment changes of the next five years are most likely to fall between the large loss that occurred in 2006-07 and the growth that occurred in 2007-08. We are also forecasting relatively stable elementary enrollment, but middle school enrollments are likely to increase and high school enrollments decrease due to the sizes of current classes advancing through secondary schools. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing developed within the District. A relatively large incoming kindergarten class also played a role in the growth. This report presents the results of an updated demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. We forecast relatively stable K-12 enrollment totals for the next five years. Based on historic trends in births, migration, and housing construction and our judgment of future trends, we conclude that the average enrollment changes of the next five years are most likely to fall between the large loss that occurred in 2006-07 and the growth that occurred in 2007-08. We are also forecasting relatively stable elementary enrollment, but middle school enrollments are likely to increase and high school enrollments decrease due to the sizes of current classes advancing through secondary schools. Close

• 13. [Article] Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18

  The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five percent lower than its 1999-00 peak of 2,839. The enrollment decline is largely attributed to the smaller elementary classes of the early 2000s, compared with the peak enrollments of the middle to late 1990s. Middle school enrollment peaked in 2003-04, and high school enrollment peaked in 2005-06. Although secondary school enrollment has been declining in the past few years, elementary enrollment has been relatively stable since 2002-03. The number of incoming kindergarten and 1st grade students has remained steady, and in three of the past four years elementary grade cohorts have grown due to net migration of school-age residents into the District. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the PTSD from 2008-09 to 2017-18. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for modest enrollment growth in the PTSD during the next 10 years. Title: Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five percent lower than its 1999-00 peak of 2,839. The enrollment decline is largely attributed to the smaller elementary classes of the early 2000s, compared with the peak enrollments of the middle to late 1990s. Middle school enrollment peaked in 2003-04, and high school enrollment peaked in 2005-06. Although secondary school enrollment has been declining in the past few years, elementary enrollment has been relatively stable since 2002-03. The number of incoming kindergarten and 1st grade students has remained steady, and in three of the past four years elementary grade cohorts have grown due to net migration of school-age residents into the District. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the PTSD from 2008-09 to 2017-18. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for modest enrollment growth in the PTSD during the next 10 years. Close

• 14. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases of 59 students (2.1 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 93 students (2.4 percent) in high school grades 9-12. Elementary grades K-5 enrolled only one more student in Fall 2007 compared with Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Single family housing development in 2007 has been slower than in recent years, as homebuilders have adjusted to the slower housing market that has affected the Portland metropolitan region. But construction and sales are continuing in several subdivisions in the District, at least two large multi-family developments are planned, and redevelopment and infill is also adding to the District’s housing stock. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases of 59 students (2.1 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 93 students (2.4 percent) in high school grades 9-12. Elementary grades K-5 enrolled only one more student in Fall 2007 compared with Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Single family housing development in 2007 has been slower than in recent years, as homebuilders have adjusted to the slower housing market that has affected the Portland metropolitan region. But construction and sales are continuing in several subdivisions in the District, at least two large multi-family developments are planned, and redevelopment and infill is also adding to the District’s housing stock. Close