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• 1. [Article] Senior Shedding: Mortality and Migration of Seniors Create Vacancies for Gentrifying Neighborhoods

  Looks at how vacancies created by deaths and out-migration of seniors and baby boomers facilitates housing turnover or gentrification, referred to as Senior Shedding.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Senior Shedding: Mortality and Migration of Seniors Create Vacancies for Gentrifying Neighborhoods Author: Lycan, Robert, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 Looks at how vacancies created by deaths and out-migration of seniors and baby boomers facilitates housing turnover or gentrification, referred to as Senior Shedding. Title: Senior Shedding: Mortality and Migration of Seniors Create Vacancies for Gentrifying Neighborhoods Author: Lycan, Robert, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 Looks at how vacancies created by deaths and out-migration of seniors and baby boomers facilitates housing turnover or gentrification, referred to as Senior Shedding. Close

• 2. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Close

• 3. [Article] Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18

  The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell by 143 students, or 15 percent. This year’s enrollment of 822 represents an increase of 20 students (2.5 percent) from Fall 2006, the largest increase since 1994. The long period of decline initially had its greatest impact on elementary grades, followed by middle school and more recently high school. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the Amity District should not expect enrollment declines to continue in the long run, although about three more years of small losses are forecast at the high school level. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a "baseline" forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels, and a "high range" forecast that anticipates higher migration levels, primarily due to an increase in housing development. Title: Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell by 143 students, or 15 percent. This year’s enrollment of 822 represents an increase of 20 students (2.5 percent) from Fall 2006, the largest increase since 1994. The long period of decline initially had its greatest impact on elementary grades, followed by middle school and more recently high school. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the Amity District should not expect enrollment declines to continue in the long run, although about three more years of small losses are forecast at the high school level. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a "baseline" forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels, and a "high range" forecast that anticipates higher migration levels, primarily due to an increase in housing development. Close

• 4. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Martin, Sheila Year: 2014 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Martin, Sheila Year: 2014 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 5. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 6. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 7. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 8. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32

  This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Close

• 9. [Article] Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City. Title: Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City. Close

• 10. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range forecast scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range forecast scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close