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• 1. [Article] Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Marion County are presented in this report for all cities in the County. Title: Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Marion County are presented in this report for all cities in the County. Close

• 2. [Article] Population Forecast for Columbia County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030

  Columbia County asked Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) to prepare integrated long term population forecasts (years 2010, 2020, and 2030) for the county and its six largest cities: ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecast for Columbia County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 Columbia County asked Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) to prepare integrated long term population forecasts (years 2010, 2020, and 2030) for the county and its six largest cities: Scappoose, St Helens, Clatskanie, Columbia City, Rainier, and Vernonia. Title: Population Forecast for Columbia County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 Columbia County asked Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) to prepare integrated long term population forecasts (years 2010, 2020, and 2030) for the county and its six largest cities: Scappoose, St Helens, Clatskanie, Columbia City, Rainier, and Vernonia. Close

• 3. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26

  The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2006 The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served by the District has experienced sustained growth in population, housing, and public school enrollment in recent years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that NSSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next twenty years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2006 The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served by the District has experienced sustained growth in population, housing, and public school enrollment in recent years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that NSSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next twenty years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Close

• 4. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32

  This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Close

• 5. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Close

• 6. [Article] Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21

  The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County and a small piece of Washington County. The area served by the District has experienced population growth in recent years, but overall school enrollment losses in two of the past five years have negated the gains in the other three years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that SSD enrollment will increase during the next fifteen years, with relatively slow growth in the first five years and faster growth during the 2010 to 2020 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. In the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Title: Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County and a small piece of Washington County. The area served by the District has experienced population growth in recent years, but overall school enrollment losses in two of the past five years have negated the gains in the other three years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that SSD enrollment will increase during the next fifteen years, with relatively slow growth in the first five years and faster growth during the 2010 to 2020 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. In the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Close

• 7. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2017-18 to 2026-27 school years. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2017-18 to 2026-27 school years. Close

• 8. [Article] Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31

  The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Close

• 9. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The District enrolled 17,280 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 68 students (‐0.4 percent) from Fall 2010. Following the recent economic recession, which began in late 2008, enrollment has declined for NCSD in each of the last three consecutive years. This period of decline in the number of students stands in stark contrast to the preceding 22 consecutive years of K‐12 enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The District enrolled 17,280 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 68 students (‐0.4 percent) from Fall 2010. Following the recent economic recession, which began in late 2008, enrollment has declined for NCSD in each of the last three consecutive years. This period of decline in the number of students stands in stark contrast to the preceding 22 consecutive years of K‐12 enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09. Close

• 10. [Article] North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2014-15

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2014-15 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2014-15 school years. The District enrolled 17,578 students in Fall 2009, a decrease of 150 students (0.8 percent) from Fall 2008. This was the first decline following 22 consecutive years of K- 12 enrollment growth. Enrollments continued to grow at schools east of I-205 in the Clackamas High School feeder system, where two new elementary schools opened to ease overcrowding, but it was not enough to offset continued losses in the Milwaukie and Rex Putnam feeder systems. Title: North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2014-15 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2014-15 school years. The District enrolled 17,578 students in Fall 2009, a decrease of 150 students (0.8 percent) from Fall 2008. This was the first decline following 22 consecutive years of K- 12 enrollment growth. Enrollments continued to grow at schools east of I-205 in the Clackamas High School feeder system, where two new elementary schools opened to ease overcrowding, but it was not enough to offset continued losses in the Milwaukie and Rex Putnam feeder systems. Close